naraswami wrote:Karan - ji, I believe a deeper read of the KF-21 new might show that its actually a counterpoint to what you are trying to prove. This 40+80 is as much a notional plan as the
Mk2 numbers... and if anything the 40+80 Mk1/MK1A plan is actually MORE concrete than the KF-21 (as it should be given a generation worth of maturity difference) but interesting coincidence that the KF-21 "plan" only sees a run of 120 articles until 2032 (after which a new variant takes over presumably).
I thought it was on AWST but for now I can only locate this more generic source that said (in Jan 22): "Currently, the plan is for four single-seat KF-21s and two two-seat prototypes to begin flight testing in 2022, while another two prototypes serve purely for ground-testing. If all goes according to plan,
then a production contract will be awarded in 2024 with deliveries beginning two years later."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/kf- ... big-plans/
Do you have any later sources that say that an actual order has been inked even for the 1st 40 post first proto flight ? I tried to look around but couldn't find any.
I think you missed the point entirely. The SoKo guys plan an 120 production run based on a proven engine. Ergo, its very possible to run the aircraft out. Second, they are willing to accept compromises baked into the plan - again, compare and contrast to the IAFs requirement for a new engine for a possible 80 aircraft run, and all-up stealth or nothing, supercruise performance, as versus the SoKo guys taking 120 for the baseline program itself and adding a mere IWB in the later batch. A country with far better fiscal resources, a much better access to worldwide industry (thanks to being an US ally for eons) is taking a far more conservative route and it's services are on board.
So look not even a production contract for the first 40 until proto testing and development work is completed. Seems like a pretty normal SOP to me, right ?
No, because unlike India, the Koreans have a track record of buying local en masse with their services cooperating as Shri Trump would say, bigly. They have to replace the F-4E and F-5 (over 170 in service per public reports), and have no other airframes planned or MRFA contest in place in the same category either. So its KF-21 or nothing. Unlike the IAF which is running a messy MRFA with aircraft in the same category as the Tejas Mk2 (and even some types, twin seaters e.g. beyond that).
And then they will be adding exports to whit. Which brings me to this point...
Also interesting to consider why do KAI's scale & industrialization requirements seemingly satisfy with a planned run for 120 (40+80) but HAL's plan for Mk1 or Mk2 of similar stages or magnitudes is a huge miscarriage of justice perpetrated on them ( I have been away for a while and I don't know where you stand on this so please consider this a honest question not a rhetorical one).
Because the plan wont stop at a mere 120 airframes. This is the point you are missing - we make for our local requirements and the services are dragged kicking and screaming to these projects (or so it often is), whereas the Koreans run these programs for their services - yes but also for exports. So, the Indonesians are part financiers and the Polish MOD recently announced a mega deal intent to take SoKo tanks, their new howitzers (in the hundreds), the FA-50 and have also expressed an intent to go for the KF-21.
Compare and contrast to the Indian services which don't look at all this at all. The Tejas Mk1A and Tejas Mk2 were literally negotiated out of the setup. The industrial aspects were ignored until HAL pointed out EOQ numbers associated with the Mk1A itself.
Next, there are to be around 270 Flankers in service (planned). How and what, will a mere 120 aircraft replace these? The Flankers will start retiring 2040 onwards. The IAF seems to be trickle feeding AMCAs into its inventory and will again ask for imports thereafter. Is there a HCA planned? The IAF is not even upgrading these aircraft with a local setup as it hasnt released any firm indent for key components. Whatever will appear is thanks to the DRDO developing competence in items like EW. Rest is still up in the air, whereas all we hear is a focus on the MRFA.
And to your point, by who exactly and from where these coordinated campaigns being run... of twitter posts, youtube videos, news "articles" with anonymous source, BRF posts that refer to the other components of this mass hysteria against the existing plans
Several groups who are deeply upset that the Tejas scuppered the immediate need for an "urgent MMRCA" and that the Tejas Mk2 will ring a death knell for the same. The current GOI are serious about atmanirbharta. They have seen what happened during Covid, the Russian Ukraine conflict, Galwan, the Dalip Singh fiasco, how in every case Indian diplomats have had to land up with bagfuls of cash, yet be given the run around for critical spares and assemblies. Yet, some in the services planning seem to think that imports are the way forward and that they will continue to be the answer. The GOI appointed a handpicked CDS to reverse the course. He left us before he could implement several plans, but the intent remains and it's clearly cheesing off a lot of folks who see both their profits as well as their strategic plans impeded. Might also want to check some members of India based "think tanks" who have now taken up positions in "xyz-India business councils" and are sagely advising GOI to not proceed on atmanirbharta as making in India is only going to result in delays, poor products etc etc.