Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[NRao]

Trying to get hold of the original article. Meanwhile, among many commentaries, here is one I picked randomly:

SENIOR US MARINE CORPS OFFICER EXPRESSES ADMIRATION FOR THE ‘REVOLUTIONARY’ WAY IN WHICH RUSSIA HAS FOUGHT ITS WAR IN UKRAINE

Will post the screen shots of the original article (PART 2) here:

[ks_sachin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVx3Nlifo4Q

Good one on Ukrainian mobilisation. The whole Youtube series by Perun is very informative.
My takeaway from this is that Ukrainian morale and combat power is still high, which is why units are not disintegrating despite sustained
artillery bombardment and presumably high casualties.

An existentialist threat - is that the cause for this lack of disintegration.

By most accounts exposure to such his arty bombardment takes a tremendous psychological toll.

[John]

Russians are reporting Wagner base was hit, Russians are calling for Russian Journalist who reportedly posted live images of base to be arrested. Apparently he didn’t even bother scrapping geocoding information on his pics allowing Ukr to strike the Wagner base in Popasna. Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin who was visiting the base days ago is still unaccounted with mixed reports coming from Russia on his whereabouts.

I know folks here talk about NATO Intel and so on helping Ukraine but lot of Intel seems to be coming poor Digital security and Russian mercs, separatists and journalist openly posting pics, it seems Ukraine has learned the hard way at the start of war and cracked down on it but Russia hasn’t.

https://twitter.com/jack_mrgln/status/1 ... NxFB68h_AA

[NRao]

The Economist :: A Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson faces steep odds

The great wars of the 20th century pivoted on counter-offensives: the Allied landings at Normandy; Douglas MacArthur’s surprise attack at Inchon in the Korean war; Norman Schwarzkopf’s “left hook” to cut off Iraqi forces in Kuwait. Now Ukraine, with a fifth of its territory in Russian hands, hopes to join that list. But a much-vaunted operation in southern Kherson province seems to have been overhyped. That may be intentional.

For months Ukrainian officials have hinted that an attack in the south is imminent. In late July, American-supplied himars rocket launchers began destroying bridges to Kherson city to isolate the Russian forces west of the Dnieper river. These were “serious preparatory steps” towards the city’s liberation, said a local official. An update provided by British intelligence officials on July 28th said that “Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum”. ......................

Ukraine needs to show progress on the battlefield. But its army may not be ready

[John]

Details are still sketchy but multiple locs in Crimea including an air base (no not the one from couple days ago this one is in Hvardeyskye ), ammo depot and electrical substation all tens of miles apart where hit. The air base housed Su-25s. No vids of air base yet see below for other two.

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... qrork4uWDg

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1 ... qrork4uWDg

[NRao]

Again, looks like sabotage to me.

[sohamn]

sabotage from within or special ops across the enemy lines?

Russia is in some trouble man. I really thought Russia as a very competent force, but if its self sabotage then serious questions will be raised within the ranks and their allegiance towards their country

[NRao]

Sabotage. Nothing in the video beyond that

[John]

sabotage from within or special ops across the enemy lines?

Russia is in some trouble man. I really thought Russia as a very competent force, but if its self sabotage then serious questions will be raised within the ranks and their allegiance towards their country

Russian telegram channels have soldiers who complain about Wagner merc as anyone can signup and they don’t really run any checks. There are stories of groups of men snooping around Russian bases and often disappear right after but it could all be paranoia who knows.

[Deans]

sabotage from within or special ops across the enemy lines?

Russia is in some trouble man. I really thought Russia as a very competent force, but if its self sabotage then serious questions will be raised within the ranks and their allegiance towards their country

Russian telegram channels have soldiers who complain about Wagner merc as anyone can signup and they don’t really run any checks. There are stories of groups of men snooping around Russian bases and often disappear right after but it could all be paranoia who knows.

Even if Russians have hatred towards the Putin administration, I doubt they will have the inclination to carry out sabotage (let alone have the
ability to do it). For any Russian being a `traitor to the motherland' is the worst kind of crime imaginable. My guess would be Sp forces.

In terms of ability, the various groups of infantry fighting on the Russian side are (in descending order, in my opinion).
- Russian Spetsnaz (spl. forces)
- Airborne & Naval infantry.
- Wagner group (a lot of them are former Spetsnaz or infantry from elite units).
- DPR/ LPR units who have fought since 2014.
- Guards infantry
- Regular infantry contract soldiers.
- Chechens / National guard.
- Russian volunteer units
- LPR/DPR conscripted infantry (also probably Crimea).

[John]

^ I believe those messages are implying those attacks are done by Ukrainians signing up as mercs carrying out the attack as double agents.

[Cyrano]

Some telegram channels are reporting that photos published by someone friendly visiting a Wagner base near Popasnaya inadvertently gave away the address/location leading to an unexpected precision strike causing heavy casualties. Is it sabotage? Could be, but the Russian side is not sure and is on high alert.

[John]

Some telegram channels are reporting that photos published by someone friendly visiting a Wagner base near Popasnaya inadvertently gave away the address/location leading to an unexpected precision strike causing heavy casualties. Is it sabotage? Could be, but the Russian side is not sure and is on high alert.

Yea I posted about that above what I can piece together Wagner telegram channel admin posted pics of Wagner base in their telegram channel. They basically posted pics in one of them they even showed building name and even the address. Almost immediately they got hit (supposedly HIMARS or an air strike). At that time Wagner founder was also in base (or one of photos supposedly shows him) and he hasn’t been heard since, Ukranian PR is claiming he is dead similar claims where made on other Russian top brass and turned out to be false.


But it is confirmed the admin of Wagner telegram channel (who posted) was killed in the strike by Russian journalists.

[sohamn]

Today Russia confirmed that it was sabotage, but what was not clear is whether the sabotage was leaking the information about the base or was it planting explosives by a double agent.

While other ammo dumps and bases might be kept secret, the air base was visible from air and doesn’t need someone to leak data. Also, I don’t think this was missiles as a single missile or few rockets can’t do so much damage across such a vast place so far away from the frontlines . To me, these looks like someone planting explosives secretly and blew the place but by bit. It is possible that Ukr / CIA has infiltrated Wagner and they have double agents knocking out the bases.

If you are merely fighting for money then you might as well sell yourself to the highest bidder.

[Deans]

Yea I posted about that above what I can piece together Wagner telegram channel admin posted pics of Wagner base in their telegram channel. They basically posted pics in one of them they even showed building name and even the address. Almost immediately they got hit (supposedly HIMARS or an air strike). At that time Wagner founder was also in base (or one of photos supposedly shows him) and he hasn’t been heard since, Ukranian PR is claiming he is dead similar claims where made on other Russian top brass and turned out to be false.

But it is confirmed the admin of Wagner telegram channel (who posted) was killed in the strike by Russian journalists.

The journo who took the pics (Russian) as part of his official coverage, was arrested. It's not clear if the Wagner owner was killed, He is reputedly
close to Putin and has the contract for running of several military bases - which made him a lot of money.

[John]

Explosion in Belgorod Russia, I don’t think spec ops can get around and do this in Russia. The range from Ukraine seems to eerily similar to Crimean attacks.

Air base? In stary oskol

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560 ... fJ_RehO3vQ

Ammo depot
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1560 ... fJ_RehO3vQ

Also explosion in Belbek air base reportedly large no of SAMs where fired (S-400 batteries are present there)

https://twitter.com/cyx_5/status/156034 ... fJ_RehO3vQ

[dnivas]

While the little pin prick attacks on Crimea and Russia go on, which has negligible impact on the conflict, here is a commander of the zaprozhye militia commenting that up to 200K Ukr soldiers dead. The guy has been in the fight since at least 2016 so unsure how reliable he is, but if it is true it is disastrous for the Ukr forces

Translated page
https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy ... 46993.html

Original
https://ria.ru/20220818/svo-1810346993.html

In other news peski has been liberated a few days ago. There are multiple pushes and bakhmut, voledar and a few more strategic heavily defended locations are under outright threat of flanking. There are at least 2 deep pushes by the DPR forces on the donetsk front, the next few weeks will be important.

[Deans]

While the little pin prick attacks on Crimea and Russia go on, which has negligible impact on the conflict, here is a commander of the zaprozhye militia commenting that up to 200K Ukr soldiers dead. The guy has been in the fight since at least 2016 so unsure how reliable he is, but if it is true it is disastrous for the Ukr forces

A more credible source is leaked documents from more senior army officials which claimed (about 2 weeks ago), 190k total casualties (dead, seriously wounded, POW and missing). That excluded foreign fighters and irregular forces. This is roughly consistent with official announcements that Ukraine was losing, (from May onwards) 100-200 dead/day, now 300 dead (or 1000 total casualties a day).

Ukraine has officially mobilized 700k personnel. Assuming 450k are in combat roles and have taken the brunt of casualties and if Ukraine has suffered 200k casualties, it would leave 250k in the Ukraine army ORBAT - which seems consistent with what Russian sources are reporting of Ukrainian strength based on both the no of formations Russia is reporting and the fact that the Russians say their 200k force is still outnumbered in terms of men in combat roles.

[Deans]

Explosion in Belgorod Russia, I don’t think spec ops can get around and do this in Russia. The range from Ukraine seems to eerily similar to Crimean attacks.

Repeated strikes in similar locations point to poor security at bases. I think it will hit Russian morale, unless they can show significant gains at the front. Though the Russians seem to be making breakthroughs, they are unable to exploit and gains are hardly 5 km in a week even in sectors they
are attacking. Part of the reason is Ukraine rushing forward reinforcements and because Russia does not have enough infantry. It is suicidal to use tanks without supporting infantry in heavily built up areas, with a high density of ATGMs.
I think its also because Ukrainian units have, by and large, not broken under prolonged artillery fire - which also implies that Ukrainian casualties are far lower than Russian estimates - I don't see how units which reportedly have 50% casualties can any any cohesion, or fighting ability.
The way Russia probably sees it, is that the front is about to crack and if it does, Russian armored units can be released towards areas where there are no prepared defenses.

[Cyrano]

Another testimony from a foreign legion fighter in ukra-een:

[John]

Vids are coming of Ukrainian UAV used to hit Russian naval base in Crimea. This is new UAV they have started building recently based on a UAV design from China. So this second new UAV we are seeing Ukraine use using Chinese commercial UAVs designs.

https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/15 ... GerF-BuG3A

[JE Menon]

https://thegrayzone.com/2022/08/18/ukra ... diers-war/

Another article on the ground situation in Ukraine from the Grayzone.

[NRao]

Ukraine war veterans on how Kiev plundered US aid, wasted soldiers, endangered civilians, and lost the war

Another article on the ground situation in Ukraine from the Grayzone.

One of the authors, LINDSEY SNELL, just an hour ago, was live with Lira on YT. She had some very interesting stories to narrate. As an example, UKR has a separate badge for Sr. Citizens on the front.

[Cyrano]

We have been seeing reports of endemic corruption, usage of civilian facilities, shooting deserters, hate crimes, looting etc from quite some time, even before Feb24. Its went up several notches since then because of the war. We need to see how widely MSM is picking up and highlighting these stories. That will be an indication elemsly & Ukra-een are being thrown under the bus and the west is disengaging.

There has been a little of that, but not enough. Pride and sunk cost fallacy still running strong in the west.

[NRao]

Ukrainian MiG-29s Are Firing AGM-88 Anti-Radiation Missiles




A picture of a two-seat MiG-29UB Fulcrum belonging to the Ukrainian Air Force, with an inset showing an AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile. Ukrainian MoD/DOD

[NRao]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 7697383431?

#Ukraine: Another AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile was spotted in Ukraine - this time an unexploded missile was found in #Kherson Oblast.

It has some damage similar to shrapnel hits which may have been received from air defense interception, however a malfunction is also possible.

[Y. Kanan]

We have been seeing reports of endemic corruption, usage of civilian facilities, shooting deserters, hate crimes, looting etc from quite some time, even before Feb24. Its went up several notches since then because of the war. We need to see how widely MSM is picking up and highlighting these stories. That will be an indication elemsly & Ukra-een are being thrown under the bus and the west is disengaging.

There has been a little of that, but not enough. Pride and sunk cost fallacy still running strong in the west.

Our own MSM continues with the "heroic Ukraine" narrative in 95% of the reporting I'm seeing.

[Cyrano]

Once the students have been evacuated, our MSM doesn't care so much about Ukra-een and repeats western reporting dumbly.

[VipinM]

Any reliable source for Russian loses in this war?? Few links i checked are full of propaganda and showing highly exaggerated figures

[NRao]

This had to be in teh works for some time.

Ukrainian Jets Are Firing American Anti-Radar Missiles

David Axe!!

It’s an unexpected development, considering that the HARM normally isn’t compatible with the Soviet-designed MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters and Su-24 and Su-25 attack jets that the Ukrainian air force operates.

But it’s possible to guess how the Ukrainians and Americans have made the 800-pound, radar-seeking missile work.

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s minister of defense, back in July teased the country’s acquisition of anti-radiation missiles. But the first evidence of American HARMs in Ukraine came Sunday, when photos circulated online depicting wreckage of a missile somewhere in Ukraine—wreckage with the distinctive stenciling of an AGM-88. More photos followed Thursday.

The photos sparked widespread speculation. Since no air force ever has integrated the HARM on a Soviet plane type, some observers wondered aloud whether a NATO ally of Ukraine fired the missiles.

That always was unlikely, of course, as NATO—while a strong supporter of Ukraine—carefully has avoided direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, for obvious escalatory reasons.

Alternatively, some observers pointed out that later models of the Raytheon-made AGM-88, which first entered service in the 1980s, are compatible with ground launchers. Perhaps the Ukrainians had cobbled together some kind of improvised truck-launcher for older HARMs.

On Monday, U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl ended the speculation. The Ukrainian air force was firing HARMs that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden transferred to Ukraine under Biden’s “presidential draw-down authority,” which allows him to dispatch overseas surplus U.S. weaponry.

“We've included a number of anti-radiation missiles that can be fired off of Ukrainian aircraft that can have effects on Russia radars and other things,” Kahl said. “So there are also things that we're doing to try to make their existing capabilities more effective.”

Kahl even hinted at which of Ukraine’s roughly 100 remaining front-line warplanes are carrying the 14-foot anti-radiation missile. Kahl noted speculation that Ukraine quietly has been acquiring—or at least seeking to acquire—second-hand MiG-29s from NATO countries.

“A lot was made about the MiG-29 issue several months ago,” Kahl said. “Not very much has been noticed about the sheer amounts of spare parts and other things that we've done to help them actually put more of their own MiG-29s in the air and keep those that are in the air flying for a longer period of time.”

The twin-engine, single-seat, supersonic MiG-29 is the Ukrainian air force’s most numerous type. Even taking into account wartime losses, it’s possible Kyiv still has 50 or more flyable MiG-29s.

A MiG-29 never has been photographed carrying a HARM, but aspects of the weapon’s design make integration possible. In U.S. service, the HARM normally functions as part of a wider system for the so-called “destruction of enemy air-defenses” mission, or DEAD.

U.S. Air Force F-16s—specifically, the 200 or so Block 50 models of the classic fighter—are the primary HARM-carriers. The F-16s also haul HARM Targeting System pods, which pack sensitive radiation sensors for pinpointing the locations of enemy air-defense batteries.

The HTS pod transfers targeting data to the missile, which flies at Mach two as far as 80 miles and strikes the target with a 200-pound fragmentation warhead.

It’s a complex task integrating the whole HTS with a particular airframe. You’ve got to add wiring with a digital bus for data-transfer and a dedicated HARM Attack Display in the cockpit. Plus, the airframe has to have the HARM’s LAU-118/A launcher rail.

But there’s a simpler approach. The AGM-88 includes a special mode—called “HARM as sensor”—whereby the missile uses its own radiation-detecting seeker head as its main cueing sensor, rather than relying on the HTS pod.

It’s a less accurate method of targeting, but it also requires less integration. To make it work, you just need the launcher rail, the wiring and the attack display in the cockpit. No special sensor pod.

It’s not hard to imagine American technicians remotely assisting Ukrainian engineers to add the HARM gear as the latter rebuild their aging MiGs for the DEAD mission.


Actually using the missile in combat is straightforward. When the missile senses a radar, an icon appears on the cockpit display. The pilot slews a cursor to the icon and pulls the trigger.

A minute later, the missile strikes its target, probably. Two hundred pounds of explosives peppering radar dishes, missile launchers and control vans.

[Deans]

Any reliable source for Russian loses in this war?? Few links i checked are full of propaganda and showing highly exaggerated figures

There is no reliable source on either side. However, there are a number of, IMO, reasonably credible estimates which match.
1. CIA director in July said `upto 15,000 Russian dead and 3 times that number wounded (this includes DPR/LPR/Chechens etc).
2. This was talked up tp '60-80,000' casualties, by the western media.
3. There was an independent western thinktank that estimated 12-13000 Russian KIA
4. Western intel has also documented all funerals / social media posts in Russia on soldier deaths and estimated 5185 Russian dead. This
excludes DPR/LPR deaths and Chechens /Mercenaries. Total deaths based on this method would be around 10,000

There are a negligible number of POW / desertions, so all casualties are KIA/ WIA.

[Y. Kanan]

All hyperbole aside, most credible sources suggest about 10,000 military KIA on both sides (probably higher). Civilian casualties should be at least double or triple that # (going by most reports).

[Deans]

All hyperbole aside, most credible sources suggest about 10,000 military KIA on both sides (probably higher). Civilian casualties should be at least double or triple that # (going by most reports).

All civilian casualties in Ukraine are recorded and reported by UN. From Feb till yesterday it was.

In Donetsk & Luhansk people's republic - 3015 dead
In territory now liberated by Russians, in Donetsk and Luhansk - 302 killed
In Ukraine controlled territory outside DPR & LPR (at the time of death) - 2270 killed (mostly Mariupol).

The Ukrainian army officially announced the deaths of 9000 in the Army, While that looks implausibly low, it does not include Territorial army, Militia
units and foreign fighters. These make up 2/3rd of those in combat and presumably an even higher proportion of deaths. It also does not include
missing (due to desertion or body not recovered).

[NRao]

Biden announces $2.98B Ukraine security assistance package

.......

“This will allow Ukraine to acquire air defense systems, artillery systems and munitions, counter-unmanned aerial systems, and radars to ensure it can continue to defend itself over the long term,” Biden said in the statement.

..........

I am no longer convinced that logic (finance, economic, commerce, military, and even tech) applies any longer. If we were to pump water into one end of a pipe, we would expect *some* water to come out at the other end.

[NRao]

................

I am no longer convinced that logic (finance, economic, commerce, military, and even tech) applies any longer. If we were to pump water into one end of a pipe, we would expect *some* water to come out at the other end.

Just got the following in my email from the USGov:

• Six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) with additional munitions for NASAMS;
• Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
• Up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition;
• Up to 24 counter-artillery radars;
• Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and support equipment for Scan Eagle UAS systems;
• VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• Laser-guided rocket systems;
• Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment

It is my understanding (not read the email yet), that these systems are going to be given to the various vendors. They will not come out of US/NATO stock.

[bala]

The Russian military has reported that it took 12 square kilometers in the southern Nikolaev Region

https://www.rt.com/russia/561377-russia ... ev-region/
23 Aug, 2022

Russian troops have made advances into Ukraine’s Nikolaev Region, a strategically important area in the south of the country. Russian and allied forces have destroyed Ukrainian military units defending the town of Aleksandrovka and managed to reach the administrative border of Nikolaev Region. The location of the advancement as near the village of Komsomolskoye. The town is in Ukraine’s Kherson Region, which has mostly been under Russian control for months. It lies on the coast of the Dnieper-Bug estuary, through which the waters of both rivers flow into the Black Sea. The Bug River comes from the north, where the city of Nikolaev, the capital of the eponymous region, an important industrial and port city, and major stronghold of the Ukrainian military, is located.

[JE Menon]

>>One of the authors, LINDSEY SNELL, just an hour ago, was live with Lira on YT.

Yes, NRao, I watched that Lindsey Snell, Eva Bartlett and Vanessa Beeley are doing good work - although the latter two, at least, are a bit too far to the left for my taste. Their work in Ukraine is a balancer to some extent, at least we get such nuggets as you mentioned. Bartlett is putting out strong info on the petal mines being used against civilians in Donetsk city

[dnivas]

Some footage from the trenches at Pesky that was recently taken
Caution[NSFW] : lots of dead Ukrainians
https://t.me/intelslava/35921

Surprisingly no blood anywhere, could be some type of fuel air type bomb that could have sucked out all the air. It almost seems like the dead soldiers are just resting.

For the Russians this seems to be the way for them to slowly grind forward. Drop a bunch of arty and then move on trench by trench.

[Deans]

Some footage from the trenches at Pesky that was recently taken
Caution[NSFW] : lots of dead Ukrainians
https://t.me/intelslava/35921

Surprisingly no blood anywhere, could be some type of fuel air type bomb that could have sucked out all the air. It almost seems like the dead soldiers are just resting.
For the Russians this seems to be the way for them to slowly grind forward. Drop a bunch of arty and then move on trench by trench.

When sheltering in a trench or bunker, the most common way of being killed by artillery will be from the blast wave, which can crush the skull
without leaving a visible trace. I know from someone who saw bodies at Kargil, that a lot of Pak casualties from our artillery died in the same way.

The worst way to go is apparently from the TOS flamethrower. There are Russian accounts of their soldiers throwing up after smelling burnt flesh
of Ukrainian units caught up in a barrage.

[Deans]

The Russian military has reported that it took 12 square kilometers in the southern Nikolaev Region

While there have been Russian advances in 2 areas in Kherson, with small amounts of territory captured, the significance is that it was supposed to be the Ukrainians who were to have launched their much announced attack to liberate Kherson. In theory, the Russians (who have 20-25000 men West of the Dnieper in Kherson) are outnumbered by about 60,000 Ukrainians. Himars are supposed to have destroyed the bridges across the Dnieper, cutting off the Russians from supplies for the past month. Their ammo dumps are destroyed and senior officers killed. If, despite that, it is the Russians who have attacked, then the assumptions made by Ukraine and NATO need to be reviewed.