Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 25 Aug 2022 19:51

It was reported that a major himars ammo dump was blown up by Russian missiles - so even if hired contractors are being used to operate himars, without ammo no one can do much, until fresh supplies arrive.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Aug 2022 05:44

L3Harris reveals delivery timeline for VAMPIRE systems for Ukraine

L3Harris expects to deliver its new counter-drone system to Ukraine within nine months of being put under contract, the company told FedScoop.

...........

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Aug 2022 08:41

NRao wrote:L3Harris reveals delivery timeline for VAMPIRE systems for Ukraine

L3Harris expects to deliver its new counter-drone system to Ukraine within nine months of being put under contract, the company told FedScoop.

...........

None of the weapons in the $3 Billion package will arrive in the next 6 months. The timeline is 6 months from the supplier getting the contract (more realistically 9 months) to 5 years. Its another way of saying no further arms supplies from US in the immediate future and none from existing stocks.

The anti drone system is useful for defending a fixed location or a small area, not a country larger than France.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 27 Aug 2022 09:13

This looks like a kit bashed laser guided 70mm hydra rocket on a mobile ground launched setup.

https://www.l3harris.com/all-capabilities/vampire

Juste as i suspected.

This can be provided relatively quickly to Ukraine. APKWS is already in the inventory of the US military. The rest of the systems are relatively easy to produce. Don't know why it will take 9 months for first dilivery. Unless it's just mis information.

https://www.militarytrader.com/.amp/mv- ... nted-apkws

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... ast-debut/

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 27 Aug 2022 13:26

I'm wondering wby Russia is letting AFU shell Donetsk and Zaphoriziye NPP for weeks now without using air power or missiles on the likely zones of fire which can't be too hard to calculate or locate.

Also why are they sparing Kiev despite such deliberate acts? Russia could have at least warned stop attacking D & ZNPP else we will bomb Kiev.

Why they aren't doing it merits some analysis.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 27 Aug 2022 23:56

Zaphoriziye NPP shelling is easier to explain. The UAF controls the part beyond the river. Even if there is sustained artillery barrage it is not possible to prevent sneak attacks by mobile artillery. The same applies to Donetsk and Kherson. Based on the social media (e.g., Twitter, etc.) there is counter battery but it can never be 100%.

It is difficult to gauge the strategy of either sides. To me it appears that Ukraine strategy is to wear our Russians and the Russians would like to leverage next winter for geopolitical reasons. In addition to the grinding war there is reason for both the sides to persist and elongate. Ideally Russia would have preferred quick capitulation but that does not seem to be on the horizon.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 28 Aug 2022 09:47

Cyrano wrote:I'm wondering wby Russia is letting AFU shell Donetsk and Zaphoriziye NPP for weeks now without using air power or missiles on the likely zones of fire which can't be too hard to calculate or locate.

... Because their SSM inventory is exhausted, and their aircraft lack standoff attack capability and are at extreme risk over Ukrainian territory, so they can't exactly use "air power" as you put it. I highly doubt the Russians are "letting" the Ukrainians do anything; they simply lack the capability to stop them. Russia stopped pulling its punches after about week 2 of this war. Ever since then, they haven't been exercising much restraint in terms of using conventional firepower. They're pretty much throwing everything they have at Ukraine short of nukes.

Also why are they sparing Kiev despite such deliberate acts? Russia could have at least warned stop attacking D & ZNPP else we will bomb Kiev.

Why they aren't doing it merits some analysis.

No analysis needed; Russia's inventories of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have run dangerously low. The Russians have already fired over 3,600 various cruise and ballistic missiles in this campaign, and they can only produce several hundred such weapons each year, unless they dramatically increase production somehow.

Generally speaking Russia is just running out of stuff to throw at Ukraine (troops, tanks, artillery, missiles, etc). Meanwhile Ukraine has an endless supply on tap from the west. I'm rooting for the Russians but I don't see how they can keep this up.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 28 Aug 2022 10:15

Y. Kanan wrote: No analysis needed;

Please desist from frivolous posts if there is no analysis needed. Because in the rest of post, you somehow assures us Russia does not have xyz or is not doing something because you said so.

Post some links or references from some good non-western sources about Russia’s magazine situation next time.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Aug 2022 18:18

Pratyush wrote: Juste as i suspected.

This can be provided relatively quickly to Ukraine. APKWS is already in the inventory of the US military. The rest of the systems are relatively easy to produce. Don't know why it will take 9 months for first dilivery. Unless it's just mis information.

The new arms package announcement makes it clear that NONE of the new stocks will come from US armed forces inventory (incl ordered by
them but not delivered). There will be fresh orders placed on suppliers for this equipment. Not all of it will be placed now.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 28 Aug 2022 18:39

Russia's constraint in producing more missiles has been in the electronics required for PGM's which have been imported. However, we have no way of knowing if they stockpiled components before the war, or if China is providing them. It is relatively easy for them to restart production lines for the older Tochka-U missiles (which they have probably done).

As a example - US orders about 1000 Javelin ATGM's each year. However, the supplier's production capacity on a 3 shift basis is about 6000.
Similarly, I would expect that Russian plants can produce a lot more than what has historically been ordered. I doubt anyone in the media knows. In Russia casually asking an armaments factory employee about production would be considered treason.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 29 Aug 2022 08:48

"In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 274 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1826 unmanned aerial vehicles, 370 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,400 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 822 multiple rocket launcher fighting vehicles, 3,349 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 5,095 specialal military automotive equipment.
"
rybars telegram channel report this latest figure from russian authorities. I can understand that Ukraine received a lot of supplies from west but the numbers look like what would be nearly size of some of the top 10 militaries in the world. If this much was there with Ukraine and u have destroyed it and Ukraine has more to go - it sounds idiotic.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Aug 2022 09:12

YashG wrote:"In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 274 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1826 unmanned aerial vehicles, 370 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,400 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 822 multiple rocket launcher fighting vehicles, 3,349 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 5,095 specialal military automotive equipment.
"
rybars telegram channel report this latest figure from russian authorities. I can understand that Ukraine received a lot of supplies from west but the numbers look like what would be nearly size of some of the top 10 militaries in the world. If this much was there with Ukraine and u have destroyed it and Ukraine has more to go - it sounds idiotic.

Both sides greatly exaggerate enemy losses. On Human casualties, I don't trust any source which is silent on its own casualties but states enemy casualty figures with certainty. Ukrainian hardware losses are probably less than half of what Russia states.
Similarly, Ukrainian estimates of Russian tank losses are double of what a site like oryx (with pics of actual losses) reports.

That said, Russian MOD briefs are fairly accurate (more so than Ukrainian) with regard to territory gained, types of targets hit and where fighting is taking place. Russian audiences know how to read between the lines. For e.g. if Russian MOD says `in heavy fighting in the direction of Pesky, the enemy lost 100 dead and 10 armored vehicles...', the Russian public interpret it as `We failed to take Pesky and are now attacking from another direction and in that fighting, the enemy may have lost upto 50 dead and 5 vehicles hit.
Even now under Russian law, discussing or disclosing your casualties without authorization, is an act of treason.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Aug 2022 09:39

What the Russian MOD says and what it often means.

1. We liberated village XYZ
We failed to take our objective, town ABC, which lies just after village XYZ

2. Enemy has sent reinforcements to XY brigade
We overestimated casualties (to the extent of the no of reinforcements) to XY brigade.

3. Far right/ Nazi units are preventing the retreat/ surrender of XY brigade.
XY brigade is still holding their positions despite intense artillery bombardment.

4. Heavy fighting in...
Heavier than expected resistance in...

5. Mopping up / de-mining operations in XYZ
We said we liberated XYZ earlier, but that was premature. We expect to do it in a couple of days.

6. Operational pause
We are short of infantry to exploit a breakthrough.

7. We are proceeding slowly to avoid civilian casualties.
We are behind on our timetable.

8. Enemy is following a scorched earth policy.
They blew up the bridges so we can't exploit the breakthrough.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 29 Aug 2022 10:14

Deans,

That is very useful.

Thank you.

It would be quite interesting to have an equivalent for what the Military commanders communicate to Mr Putin.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Aug 2022 12:54

ks_sachin wrote:Deans,

That is very useful.

Thank you.

It would be quite interesting to have an equivalent for what the Military commanders communicate to Mr Putin.

This is what baffles me. Putin is not an idiot. Why for e.g. does the MOD brief mention aircraft losses which were double the number of aircraft Ukraine had at the start of the war ? Even after you add ALL Soviet era aircraft that NATO has announced they will supply, the total would be less than the loss Russia claims.

There are forums like BRF in Russia, where people keep track of losses that Ukrainian brigades are reported to have suffered. Since brigades have
reportedly suffered 150% losses, either the Russian figures of Ukrainian losses are inflated, or the brigade has lost all its personnel twice, in which
case the people who have now been conscripted into the unit, should break under heavy artillery fire, but that is (mostly) not happening.

Maria · Post by **Maria** » 29 Aug 2022 13:51

Deans wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:Deans,

That is very useful.

Thank you.

It would be quite interesting to have an equivalent for what the Military commanders communicate to Mr Putin.
This is what baffles me. Putin is not an idiot. Why for e.g. does the MOD brief mention aircraft losses which were double the number of aircraft Ukraine had at the start of the war ? Even after you add ALL Soviet era aircraft that NATO has announced they will supply, the total would be less than the loss Russia claims.

There are forums like BRF in Russia, where people keep track of losses that Ukrainian brigades are reported to have suffered. Since brigades have
reportedly suffered 150% losses, either the Russian figures of Ukrainian losses are inflated, or the brigade has lost all its personnel twice, in which
case the people who have now been conscripted into the unit, should break under heavy artillery fire, but that is (mostly) not happening.

You got to remember that like all industrialised countries, Ukraine has a vast reserve of mothballed aircraft as well which their allies were happy to restore.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 29 Aug 2022 13:51

Deans wrote: This is what baffles me. Putin is not an idiot.

Perhaps not an idiot, but is he the master strategist that everyone believes him to be?

His approach to this whole campaign to me reminds me to Valerie Legasov's lines in Chernobyl - "We're on the dangerous ground right now, because of our secrets and our lies. They are practically what define us. When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there, but it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid. That is how an RBMK reactor core explodes. Lies."

This in response to the judge - "Professor Legasov, if you mean to suggest the Soviet State is somehow responsible for what happened, then I must warn you, you are treading on dangerous ground."

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 29 Aug 2022 13:54

Maria,

the point being (in relation to Deans post?)

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Aug 2022 18:26

Ukraine risks heavy losses if counter-attack is launched before major firepower is in place
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ery-could/

don't know what to make out of this article! Zelensky asking for more money? more artillery? In same breath write up says it will take months/yrs for supplies to arrive. So Kherson is gone, once they retake Kherson they will attack more occupied territories (so counter offensive will take yrs?), Zelensky's sound bites like it is not if but when Russia will lose comes from arrogane of limitless supplies from West of hardware and money.
In case of stalemate will Ru use parmanu? No one knows!

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Aug 2022 18:41

ks_sachin wrote:
Deans wrote: This is what baffles me. Putin is not an idiot.
Perhaps not an idiot, but is he the master strategist that everyone believes him to be?

I think the Chernobyl series is an accurate depiction of how the Soviet system worked.
In all fairness to Putin, his entire career has been in national security. The KGB where he started, was probably more aware of the deficiencies of the armed forces than the army itself. He has also been the country's leader in several wars. The Russians performed well in Syria and had a bloodless takeover of Crimea, which are achievements NATO has not managed. In contrast, Zelenski is an actor, now acting like a warlord.

On the flip side, he has not been able to do anything to stop rampant corruption in the armed forces, or make serious military reforms.
Like many dictators, I don't think he wants to hear a dissenting opinion, or encourage multiple points of view. For Ukraine he seems to have assumed that the best case scenario (Ukraine folds in a week after a show of strength) will be the most likely.

In a way, Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is similar to Hitler's decision to invade the USSR in 1941. There was no serious study of Soviet capability and no dissenting opinion among his generals. Hitler was reported to have said that if he knew then what he knew a few months after the invasion, he would never have invaded. Putin had the same realisation a month into the invasion, but unlike Hitler, moved to plan B.

Its probably the opposite of how a US leader might have planned this. The book `Obama's wars' ( free download at pdfdrive.com) gives a good insight into the discussions around the decision to have a troop surge in Afghanistan.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Aug 2022 19:46

elensly is back on European tv channels begging for reconstruction of Donetsk, Mariupol, the whole occupied territory. This guy is out doing immy the dummy on drugging and begging...

How he plans to gain control of all that territory is a trivial detail, it only depends on western arms, ammo, funds, trainers, Intel, hired mercenaries and endless relay of propaganda his TV station buddies dream up in vapor filled rooms.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Aug 2022 20:04

Ukraine, has announced (for the 5th time?) its offensive to liberate Kherson. There's some TV footage of abandoned Russian positions. Media reports sound more positive than in previous counter-offensives ( which all ended with Ukraine being worse off than before). They have said that damage to bridges has prevented Russia from reinforcing or supplying its men west of the Dnieper. Let's see if this one is different.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 30 Aug 2022 01:04

Update from Russia on the Ukraine offensive to retake the South

Ukraine’s much-heralded “counter-offensive” in Kherson has “failed miserably,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday, listing the losses suffered by Kiev at the end of the day. Ukrainian forces attempted to attack in three directions on orders of President Vladimir Zelensky but made no gains, Moscow said.

Russian troops caused “great losses” to the Ukrainian attackers during the day’s battles, including 26 tanks, 23 armored fighting vehicles, nine more armored vehicles, two SU-25 ground-attack jets and more than 560 troops, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Monday evening.

https://www.rt.com/russia/561758-ukrain ... ive-fails/

Now we wait for the offensive next spring when Crimea will be taken

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2022 10:00

Pratyush wrote:
Juste as i suspected.

This can be provided relatively quickly to Ukraine. APKWS is already in the inventory of the US military. The rest of the systems are relatively easy to produce. Don't know why it will take 9 months for first dilivery. Unless it's just mis information.

https://www.militarytrader.com/.amp/mv- ... nted-apkws

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... ast-debut/

and from the fallout thread:

vera_k wrote:Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern

The levels aren’t yet critical because the U.S. isn’t engaged in any major military conflict, the official added. “It is not at the level we would like to go into combat,” the defense official said.

Think tankers in the US have always felt they can take on Russia and China at the same time. And, that is what they WERE trying to practice.

However, there is one problem: the US DoD is not ready (I had said the same pre-Pelosi too). And, we are witnessing the passing of the ball from the think tankers to the DoD operatives. Right or wrong DoD Babus (yes, they do exist) have determined that it will take X number of months to deliver whatever a politician or a think tanker has promised Ukraine

Meanwhile, WRT China, despite DoD's opposition to the Pelosi trip, the DoD is putting their foot down. The two USN ships transiting the Taiwan Straits is a non-political military response. PLA is being told not to push it too far - make a point and go back to pre-Pelosi days.

With the EU flame being snuffed out I really do not much hope for UKR - a very slow self-infected death (IMO). Think tankers care for this front, DoD does not.

China on the other hand is on a short DoD leash.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 30 Aug 2022 21:06

Ukrainian aid couldnt have come without pentagons push. Ukrainian aid wasnt symbolic - if it was purely a think tanker or democrats’ idea - aid would have been symbolic not material.

The old guard in US military establishment is still fairly anti russia and they influenced the system into this.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 31 Aug 2022 05:10

Ukraine’s MiG-29s Shown Firing U.S. AGM-88 Missiles In Stunning Cockpit Video
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... kpit-video
30 Aug 2022

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 31 Aug 2022 08:16

Rakesh wrote:Ukraine’s MiG-29s Shown Firing U.S. AGM-88 Missiles In Stunning Cockpit Video
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... kpit-video
30 Aug 2022

Ukrainian war effort is some kind of pop concert.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 31 Aug 2022 14:00

YashG wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Ukraine’s MiG-29s Shown Firing U.S. AGM-88 Missiles In Stunning Cockpit Video
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... kpit-video
30 Aug 2022
Ukrainian war effort is some kind of pop concert.

Also 6 months in RuAF does not have command of the UKR airspace since the UKRAF is able to operate pretty much at will

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 31 Aug 2022 14:37

Nice video, notice the cheap commercial GPS devices like mobile phone sized Garmin and another placed horizontally which falls off its holder in the video. Its unclear if these are being used only for navigation (redundantly?) or for targeting as well.

Also notice another colour screen device just below the HUD which seems to be used for targeting the missile, that too doesn't look like Russian avionics that came with the Mig 29. Americans seem to have done lot of unusual tricks and shortcuts to make their missiles work on the Migs. Might make them extremely vulnerable to ECM.

The kicker is the message at the end to salute the dead pilot who was presumably flying this rig.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 31 Aug 2022 15:25

We call it juggad.

We did it with the Mirages in Kargil.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 31 Aug 2022 15:28

The dead pilot Yvgeny Lysenko is presumed KIA over Zhytomyr

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 31 Aug 2022 18:26

rajkumar wrote: Also 6 months in RuAF does not have command of the UKR airspace since the UKRAF is able to operate pretty much at will

The UkAF has done under 5 sorties a day since March (google western analysts assessments). Every aircraft they now have, is from Soviet era stock
donated from East Europe. Their policy is therefore airspace denial to the Russians, through their dense radar and SAM network. In that environment, you can't control the airspace of a country bigger than France.

Russia reportedly is maintaining 200+ sorties / day, which is approx. 1/day per serviceable aircraft. I think increasing that sortie rate will come
with the risk of more losses, without incremental gains. Ukraine's radar cannot be suppressed, because their early warning is from NATO AWACS flying in NATO airspace. Ukrainian radar will be switched on, only when the AWAC tells them that a Russian aircraft is approaching the kill zone of their SAMs. Pre war Ukraine had 500 SAM launchers - a typical SAM site will have a launcher for long range/high altitude and a medium range system for low level threats. Added to that are a vast number of MANPADS.

Excluding losses on attacks to airbases, Russia has lost (as per western analysts) 85 aircraft. The figure from Oryx is 49. This is after flying (conservatively) 36,000 sorties. This is significantly better than what the Israeli air force achieved in 67 or 1973 (when they had air dominance),
or the IAF in 1965 & 71. In Gulf war 1, where Iraq was completely outclassed, the US & Allies still lost 52 aircraft.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 31 Aug 2022 21:51

Some data on 152mm ammo. That is the only caliber of gun the Russian army is using in Ukraine.
The DPR & LPR militia have the 122mm field gun and 120 & 122mm SP guns.

Assuming all its 152mm guns deployed in Ukraine fired 20 rounds/day, they would consume 215000 Tns of ammo in 6 months
That is Ukraine's estimate when they ask NATO for more artillery, citing Russian superiority.
More realistically, with artillery losses and maintenance, it would be 150000 Tns in 6 months max.

It started the war with a stock of approx. 350000 tns of 152 mm ammo.
Its estimated production was 55000 tns a year. However, when factories work to max capacity, that number would at least double.
So, Russia consumes 25,000 Tns a month and produces 10,000 Tns/ month. At the current rate of consumption, its stocks will be depleted in 23
months. However. Most of the artillery effort is going towards breaking heavily defended positions in the Donbass and Russian consumption may
soon start reducing significantly.

Gun barrels have to be replaced or reconditioned after around 2500 rounds. However, Russia is deployed only 25% of its stock of 152mm guns
(assume 50% of serviceable guns). It would be reasonable to assume that barrel replacement capacity would equal ammo production capacity.
So, if Russian arty units manage to get through 5000 rounds (or 250-300 days) by replacing regiments (which they are doing), the stock and reconditioning rate of barrels should equal demand, assuming fewer shells per gun per day are fired from Jan onwards (that would have to happen, else there would be a shortage of shells).

Other producers who can potentially help Russia with 152mm ammo are China and North Korea. Belarus has reportedly transferred some of
its stock to Russia. Romania is reportedly restarting a 152mm production line to supply Ukraine.

Ukraine is almost out of 152mm ammo. NATO has sent or promised 400,000 rounds of 155mm ammo. Ukraine had been consuming 6000 rounds of 152mm ammo/ day, which will now presumably switch to 155 mm.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 01 Sep 2022 05:58

Thanks Deans. That's some sobering numbers. 23 months with existing usage can be easily expanded when plants that are shut down is restarted or new plants opened up.

Like you mentioned once the defended lines are breached movement and maneuver should become easier. The question then becomes how much does Russia want to hold and how much it wants to demilitarize

Come winter time, would like to see the reliability of NATO/US intel coverage.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 01 Sep 2022 14:09

dnivas wrote:Thanks Deans. That's some sobering numbers. 23 months with existing usage can be easily expanded when plants that are shut down is restarted or new plants opened up.

Like you mentioned once the defended lines are breached movement and maneuver should become easier. The question then becomes how much does Russia want to hold and how much it wants to demilitarize

Come winter time, would like to see the reliability of NATO/US intel coverage.

Some old ammo is apparently unfit for use, so 20 months at current consumption rates is more realistic. This would be more of a problem with
122 mm ammo, where gun production was discontinued, but the DPR/LPR militia may not want to continue the fight beyond the liberation of
Donetsk/Luhansk + a buffer zone.

The problem with restarting old plants is the tooling required. Romania and Bulgaria estimated that it would take year and cost $ 1 billion to restart a 152 mm ammo production line for Ukraine and the war may not last that long. US does not want to pay for that line as they would like their own manufacturers to supply 155 mm guns and ammo. For NATO, 1 million 155mm shells (the min Ukraine wants) will cost US$10 billion and as of now those funds are not available.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 01 Sep 2022 14:32

Deans wrote:
dnivas wrote:Thanks Deans. That's some sobering numbers. 23 months with existing usage can be easily expanded when plants that are shut down is restarted or new plants opened up.

Like you mentioned once the defended lines are breached movement and maneuver should become easier. The question then becomes how much does Russia want to hold and how much it wants to demilitarize

Come winter time, would like to see the reliability of NATO/US intel coverage.
Some old ammo is apparently unfit for use, so 20 months at current consumption rates is more realistic. This would be more of a problem with
122 mm ammo, where gun production was discontinued, but the DPR/LPR militia may not want to continue the fight beyond the liberation of
Donetsk/Luhansk + a buffer zone.

The problem with restarting old plants is the tooling required. Romania and Bulgaria estimated that it would take year and cost $ 1 billion to restart a 152 mm ammo production line for Ukraine and the war may not last that long. US does not want to pay for that line as they would like their own manufacturers to supply 155 mm guns and ammo. For NATO, 1 million 155mm shells (the min Ukraine wants) will cost US$10 billion and as of now those funds are not available.

On my few visits to Omsk and Novasibirisk, there are still many military towns that have minimal staff [just keeping the lights on]. When push comes to shove, i think a lot of plants can be restarted with not much of a budget. what I noticed is that there is a lot of jugaad in Russia. Pretty much every car in smaller towns are fixit types and they keep running pretty reliably. if I was a military planner , I would already start sending funds out to start refurbishing and consolidating these plants.

There are also quite a few Weapon factories in the regions 'liberated' which could be moved more inland.

Thanks again for quantifying the issue of logistics and production. I am just making my comments based on hearsay and my visit through Russia but it is always great to find dollar numbers to quantify certain assumptions.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 01 Sep 2022 14:53

Deans garu,
Thanks for some enlightening posts. If Russia can continue this for 20 months, its a long time, and lot of things can happen. Its therefore a tussle between Russia's capacity to absorb attrition of men and equipment on one side and the West's capacity to absorb impact of the energy (and consequential economic) crisis AND the attrition of men (Ukrainian for the moment) and equipment.

Russian tactics at the moment seems to be, let the enemy come to them and pick them off instead of making further incursions risking men & materials. Ukra-een has no choice but to oblige and be seen as resisting (at a tremendous, tragic cost to itself) to keep westerns money and arms flowing in.

The west seems to be quite smug that they have trained Ukr forces for 8 years and they are holding up well with their support, but thats cynical beyond imagination.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 01 Sep 2022 14:59

if I was a military planner , I would already start sending funds out to start refurbishing and consolidating these plants.

Yes, Putin named a new head of Russian MIC a couple of months ago and made several policy changes and appointments to enable this.

The big difference is, this conflict is indeed "existential" for Russia and they have been and will be damn serious about aligning all internal forces and external factors to emerge victorious.

For the west this is one among many pursuits and its not their men dying on frontlines - they have and will be at best half serious about this and pay the price.

Ukraine has sold out and we all know how sell outs have fared in history.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 Sep 2022 15:18

Ukraine seems to be using POF ammunition

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 01 Sep 2022 15:58

Cyrano wrote:
if I was a military planner , I would already start sending funds out to start refurbishing and consolidating these plants.
Yes, Putin named a new head of Russian MIC a couple of months ago and made several policy changes and appointments to enable this.

The big difference is, this conflict is indeed "existential" for Russia and they have been and will be damn serious about aligning all internal forces and external factors to emerge victorious.

For the west this is one among many pursuits and its not their men dying on frontlines - they have and will be at best half serious about this and pay the price.

Ukraine has sold out and we all know how sell outs have fared in history.

Good points. The main thing we have to understand is that for Russia there is no calendar for this conflict. If this is going to take 10 years, it will take 10 years until all the objectives are met. There is no time limit and like you said is existential for Russia. ultimately imo hard assets will win over inflated western economies.

second news just out a few minutes ago, Russian unemployment is at a record low. This can just go on for years , albeit commodity prices will come down soon

third- ex head of aramco said in an interview that no one else has the LNG capacity to fill up European storage units.

I already hear some grumbling from the traitorous and immoral EU [Mir jafar times 10] politicians regarding high gas and electricity prices. something or someone has to give. I am enjoying the burnol moment for the euros and love the phraseology that indian MEA is broadcasting. I am traveling to Scandinavia and Austria in a couple months and I am gonna relish putting the euros in their place.

dean brought out an interesting number, if the war monger inc can send 1 million units of 152 ammo, how much are taken out in the staging areas and what percent is taken out in the front lines. I should not forget pilferage as well. so really how much actually ends up being used.