Endgame of NaPakistan: How and what afterwards

[ArjunPandit]

intersting..in a way explains why RNS was called upon by Russian..as i said elsewhere india should keep the powder dry and test something just in case something is needed

[ramana]

Excellent thread by Cestmoiz on Brahmos accident

https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/150 ... p_2GQ&s=19

[ramana]

Truth about Pakistan



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QSf8KsdTiY&t=2520s

[VinodTK]

Truth about Pakistan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QSf8KsdTiY&t=2520s

Very insightful debate, good quote
"Pakistan has the intent but lacks the capability
India has the capability but lacks the intent"

So true

[RoyG]

Truth about Pakistan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QSf8KsdTiY&t=2520s

Very insightful debate, good quote
"Pakistan has the intent but lacks the capability
India has the capability but lacks the intent"

So true

Intent is there. Isolate and manage. No need to interfere if they are doing the work for us.

[ramana]

LINK: https://www.c3sindia.org/post/root-caus ... umar-verma

Good article but misses the main point.\
Pakistan was created as a part of Cold War geopolitics.
With the collapse of FSU, the raisins are gone.
However, Pakistan is not a normal state and is finding it difficult to survive.

The pre-independence British Indian Army had 46% Muslims mainly from what is now Pakistan.
After the 1857 War of Independence, the British tried to replicate the Mughal power structure: Administration and Commerce with Hindus and military preponderantly Muslim.

Historically this area subsisted on hafta from Dilli or Persia.

The British carved out a country from India and the subsidy was from the West.
For a facade, political control was there. Real power was with the Army.
And in ten years they formalized the takeover under Ayub Khan.

Hence I said long back Pakistan is a Kabila camp with the Army under control.
Pak Army Motto is Jihad-e--Sibhillah which is a Jihadi/Kabila motto.

That is the root cause of their problem.

Norman Davies wrote, "States are formed and States Vanish!"
And he concluded, "States vanish when the reasons for their creations vanish!"
Now the Pak Army has split after the arrest of Pakhtun Imran Khan.

And are going through the throes of a defanged snake.

[ArjunPandit]

Based on what i'm seeing
1. Reasons for end of pakistan have been existing for almost a decade and half
2. Capacity is being built up on indian side..gaps plugged in ..practice exercises being done repeatedly. My gut feeling is that we are ready or gettting ready. leaks plugged in.
3. China factor included in...

[ArjunPandit]

^^ For point 2 above
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7096&p=2570548#p2570548

[ramana]

sQuint tries to whitewash Gen Munir's appointment:

https://www.thequint.com/news/world/asi ... baz-shraif

and the second installment

https://www.thequint.com/news/world/asi ... ulwama-isi

[ramana]

All Kabila chiefs have only one target.
India.
Rest are all distractions to fool Indians.

[SRajesh]

Ramanji
Is this more a Deoband ideology (especially the sect propagated by these folks Ashraf Ali Thanwi, Shabbir Ahmad Usmani, Zafar Ahmad Usmani and Muhammad Shafi Deobandi) and Tablighi Jamaat or Barelvi view (they form 60% of the unwashed awam) of Ghzwa-e-Hind at any cost??
The Deobandi madrassa are on the increase in there.
Even though Barelvi madrasa less (and vociferous for Pakistan) probably left behind for us to suffer!!

[ramana]

Twenty-year ago BRF was the first to Call Pakistan a Terrorist state.
Now we have MEA Jaishankar saying the same in UN.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/16034468 ... Ehg6A&s=19

[SRajesh]

To all the strategic thinkers on the Forum:
Now that this thread might come true in 2023/2024, I would like to ask you about possible scenarios arising out of collapse of a MishMash called Paxatan.
To my limited knowledge the issues facing India would be:
1. Huge influx of refugees
2. Lawless western parts of that country with N-assests buried where
3. Rise in terror activities in India : either by real Non-state actors(now that the state has collapsed) or ex Jihadi army members out for revenge or sympathetic desi unwashed qom asking for devine retribution
4. Chinese ingress into our Western Border
5, Non conventional war/skirmish/battle on our Western Front
6.Western states like Punjab/Raj/Guj facing major resource crunch due to massive influx
7.J&K potential to go up in flames
In all this I have not added the roles of our deracinated/woke/BIF in either actively or covertly trying to aid the above mentioned acts.
All this adding to put brakes on the tag of Fastest Growing Economy and dream of 30 Trillion economy
All this needing maybe two decades to clean up the mess. A two decade slowing down and inward facing nation
Hope this doomsday forecast doesn't come true and the Jihadi army is successful in pulling some strings and beg from 4-fathers and GUBO to Chin and Unkil to keep up float the 'Miasma' called Paxtan

[ArjunPandit]

Ramanji
Is this more a Deoband ideology (especially the sect propagated by these folks Ashraf Ali Thanwi, Shabbir Ahmad Usmani, Zafar Ahmad Usmani and Muhammad Shafi Deobandi) and Tablighi Jamaat or Barelvi view (they form 60% of the unwashed awam) of Ghzwa-e-Hind at any cost??
The Deobandi madrassa are on the increase in there.
Even though Barelvi madrasa less (and vociferous for Pakistan) probably left behind for us to suffer!!

ramanaji has explained above..they all have one target and that is ghazwa e hind. Now the thing is after that the will come to fight each other. As someone from bakistan said on a twitter space i was on
"we started with hindu muslim, moved to ahmedia, to shia-sunni and now braelvi and deobandii"...these ideological aspects were extensively discussed by shiv saar in his posts and books and also on gdf..so dont get enamoured by any soft elements..and dont harbour any soft feelings..when time comes soft elements would be sidelined or weeded and they themsleves would be pleading against elements that would say they are not true muslims..

[ArjunPandit]

To all the strategic thinkers on the Forum:
Now that this thread might come true in 2023/2024, I would like to ask you about possible scenarios arising out of collapse of a MishMash called Paxatan.
To my limited knowledge the issues facing India would be:
1. Huge influx of refugees
2. Lawless western parts of that country with N-assests buried where
3. Rise in terror activities in India : either by real Non-state actors(now that the state has collapsed) or ex Jihadi army members out for revenge or sympathetic desi unwashed qom asking for devine retribution
4. Chinese ingress into our Western Border
5, Non conventional war/skirmish/battle on our Western Front
6.Western states like Punjab/Raj/Guj facing major resource crunch due to massive influx
7.J&K potential to go up in flames
In all this I have not added the roles of our deracinated/woke/BIF in either actively or covertly trying to aid the above mentioned acts.
All this adding to put brakes on the tag of Fastest Growing Economy and dream of 30 Trillion economy
All this needing maybe two decades to clean up the mess. A two decade slowing down and inward facing nation
Hope this doomsday forecast doesn't come true and the Jihadi army is successful in pulling some strings and beg from 4-fathers and GUBO to Chin and Unkil to keep up float the 'Miasma' called Paxtan

these items have been discussed in some posts previously but a lot has changed even in last 3 months..the situation in afghanistan, the global scenario of involvement and in my opinion weakening (at least on diplomatic front) of russia esp vis a vis china. My sense is if it happens in next 2 years a lot of bakis would land up on european or middle eastern shores..as in their mind india is still poor (no toilets etc) ..right now we have lot of fires inside too..i dont think we would want an external fire..without setting our house in order i dont think that step would be taken up by this govt..even POK taking back would itself be a nightmare

[Najunamar]

In this context, the promise of Indian citizenship to anyone with a grandparent born in undivided India I.e before 1935 is important. I think it would not be the best timing for Paxatan to perish now but in a few years when there is less risk of the unwashed being able to meet that bar without cheating the official records that would work perfectly. Hopefully by then we can erect physical and other barriers to prevent unwanted influx also….

[Cyrano]

the promise of Indian citizenship to anyone with a grandparent born in undivided India I.e before 1935 is important

Why on the earth would we want to promise that ? A terminally bedridden Pakistan which has neither the strength nor the courage to do anything across the border in India is best for us for the foreseeable future.

I have argued here in the past that a prosperous Pak is good for India, but as I understood that the gazwa e hind mindset is drilled into every Paki from infancy my opinion changed totally.

Akhand Bharat would be great but the territories hived off have rotten so much that integrating them now will only spread the rot all over Bharat. Not worth it IMO.

And no regrets. NaMo quoted Telugu poet Gurajada Appa Rao some time ago. "Desham ante Matti kaadoy, Desham ante Manushuloy" ie A nation is not land, it is people.

[Manish_P]

...

Akhand Bharat would be great but the territories hived off have rotten so much that integrating them now will only spread the rot all over Bharat.

+1

...
And no regrets. NaMo quoted Telugu poet Gurajada Appa Rao some time ago. "Desham ante Matti kaadoy, Desham ante Manushuloy" ie A nation is not land, it is people.

My old grandfather, who lived through the partition, would say - A nation might be it's people, but the people belong to a country. And a country needs land.

All the abrahamic religions have been very clear on this point - the promised land, the land under god, Dar ul islam ..

[Cyrano]

God loves them so much that he made them take birth in barren, inhospitable lands and then promised them better lands for which they have to endure hardship, die or kill others who are already occupying those promised better lands, living in abundance and pray to a different God.

Despite this, they insist their God is better, the ultimate, the only one etc... So absurd it stops being funny.

[rajkumar]

'Atte Dal Ka Bhaav' As Gun-Toting Men Fight Over Food In Balochistan

[Y. Kanan]

Could it be that after more than two decades of "Pakistan about to collapse" discussions on BR, it might actually be happening, finally?

[ramana]

...

Akhand Bharat would be great but the territories hived off have rotten so much that integrating them now will only spread the rot all over Bharat.

+1

...
And no regrets. NaMo quoted Telugu poet Gurajada Appa Rao some time ago. "Desham ante Matti kaadoy, Desham ante Manushuloy" ie A nation is not land, it is people.

My old grandfather, who lived through the partition, would say - A nation might be it's people, but the people belong to a country. And a country needs land.

All the abrahamic religions have been very clear on this point - the promised land, the land under god, Dar ul islam ..

[ArjunPandit]

YK sir, i would think it is a bit early..NoKo has been surviving in a far worse condition for far too long..it wont happen until we strike overtly or covertly

[ramana]

On one hand Paxtan welcomes Russian wheat in Krachi.
On the other hand they claim to ship ammo to Ukraine via Gdansk port.

[venkat_kv]

To all the strategic thinkers on the Forum:
Now that this thread might come true in 2023/2024, I would like to ask you about possible scenarios arising out of collapse of a MishMash called Paxatan.
To my limited knowledge the issues facing India would be:
1. Huge influx of refugees
2. Lawless western parts of that country with N-assests buried where
3. Rise in terror activities in India : either by real Non-state actors(now that the state has collapsed) or ex Jihadi army members out for revenge or sympathetic desi unwashed qom asking for devine retribution
4. Chinese ingress into our Western Border
5, Non conventional war/skirmish/battle on our Western Front
6.Western states like Punjab/Raj/Guj facing major resource crunch due to massive influx
7.J&K potential to go up in flames
In all this I have not added the roles of our deracinated/woke/BIF in either actively or covertly trying to aid the above mentioned acts.
All this adding to put brakes on the tag of Fastest Growing Economy and dream of 30 Trillion economy
All this needing maybe two decades to clean up the mess. A two decade slowing down and inward facing nation
Hope this doomsday forecast doesn't come true and the Jihadi army is successful in pulling some strings and beg from 4-fathers and GUBO to Chin and Unkil to keep up float the 'Miasma' called Paxtan

Rsatchi Saar,

Even if the US and China steps in with any of the temporary forefathers (everybody is tightening belts from what cursory reading goes on - UK, Japan, Arabs, Turkey), Pakistan collapse is a question of when and not if. Which is why they will try to create more internal disturbances in India to cause a regime change and then get favorable treatment whether its food supply on the cheap from India or heat off border.
I would say India should only look to get J&K united along with Gilgit baltistan and straighten out the border in Punjab to get areas like Kartartpur and Sir Creek in Gujarat and call it a day.

Stabilize what we have got newly and then wait, Pakistan as an entity will dissolve after this hopefully without any external intervention and India can continue to increase its economy to improve its heft in the world.

[ramana]

From an observer

"Urban paq is now reduced to 3 cities - Isloo/pindi, Lawhore and Karachi
Pindi is in Paqjab state and isloo is national capital territory (like a union territory in India)

And all reaources across paqistan have been sucked out and pumped into Paqjab and specifially these two or three cities

Everywhere else, there is 16+ hrs power cuts (people in GB saying 21-24 hr power cuts!)

Isloo has a few hrs power cuts
Wheat flour is expensive but is available it seems in these cities. But outside paqjab, things must be very bad"

[SwamyG]

Could it be that after more than two decades of "Pakistan about to collapse" discussions on BR, it might actually be happening, finally?

I stepped into mothership to check what our gurus were saying. I get WA forwards from friends and family about things happening in and to Pakistan. India would want to ensure if the collapse happens, then it happens in a way it can handle it. So do not be surprised if India steps in to help Pakistan if the collapse does not suit India's immediate interests. We have intelligent leaders at the top now.

[VKumar]

The time to make an unsurmountable wall is rapidly shrinking.

[RoyG]

Afghanistan wants control parts of cpec and charge rent. Also wants access to BRI for greater export of narcotics. They need $.

[SBajwa]

Borders in Punjab, Jammu.and Kashmir are very heavily mined which Will most likely deter influx of refugees. Southern Rajasthan and Gujarat will be easier but not without local support.

[SwamyG]

I am looking for estimates on resulting refugees and other expenses when the implosion happens.

I am sure Indian gov. is not going to publicly release numbers. Have experts predicted the impact on India?

[ArjunPandit]

Borders in Punjab, Jammu.and Kashmir are very heavily mined which Will most likely deter influx of refugees. Southern Rajasthan and Gujarat will be easier but not without local support.

Terrorists still infiltrate... And there are more jihadis than there are mines

[ramana]

In 2009 I wrote

My take is despite the deep interest of the Anglo-Saxon & Han compact to keep TSP propped up against India, the TSP is going down faster due to Wahabised Islam. If Afghanistan stabilizes it will be faster.

[RoyG]

Ramana,

Pakistan is the crumbling fortress of Islam.

Somewhat of a repeat of early 18th century in which Pakistan (Mughals) has weakened significantly and is embroiled in conflict with Pathans who are supposed to be insurance policy for Islam in the subcontinent. Bangladesh leadership (Sikh Empire) and BJP (Marathas) are training their guns somewhat on Islams political power. The Ashrafi Ulema (Shah Waliullah Dehlawi's trumpet call for Jihad) is shit scared of what is happening and inviting bids for foreign intervention. The AngloSaxon-Han competition for lobby in subcontinent should be seen in this light.

[YashG]

^^^
this is a make believe interpretation.
Mughals ruled what was the worlds no.1 or no.2 GDP economy. Pakistan is no match.

Also mughal empires greatest extent was achieved just before the started crumbling. Pakistan’s case has no zenith before crumbling.

This comparison is ridiculous.

[RoyG]

^^^
this is a make believe interpretation.
Mughals ruled what was the worlds no.1 or no.2 GDP economy. Pakistan is no match.

Also mughal empires greatest extent was achieved just before the started crumbling. Pakistan’s case has no zenith before crumbling.

This comparison is ridiculous.

Your conclusion is ridiculous. Think of the Pakistan Army and Ashrafi bureaucratic class and their parasitic inclinations as a similar regime to Mughals and not the state itself. The state is land for plunder for this collusive entity which is why your attempt to draw some kind of parallel with GDP of the subcontinent is of no consequence to this discussion.

Pakistan was created to preserve Islam, wipe out any political hegemony from Hindus, and create an apartheid state which it succeeded in doing. This is exactly what the Mughals did. This received wide support from the Ulema across the subcontinent which continues to this day. Now that Pakistan is slowly crumbling and Bangladesh has a friendlier regime, the Ulema is ramping things up. I believe JSD calls it Khilafat 2.0. What do expect them to do when state power is in jeopardy? Of course we aren't in the same situation - this is simply your misreading, but the fear and circumstances behind the fear are very similar.

[YashG]

Pakistan was created to preserve Islam, wipe out any political hegemony from Hindus, and create an apartheid state which it succeeded in doing. This is exactly what the Mughals did. This received wide support from the Ulema across the subcontinent which continues to this day. Now that Pakistan is slowly crumbling and Bangladesh has a friendlier regime, the Ulema is ramping things up. I believe JSD calls it Khilafat 2.0. What do expect them to do when state power is in jeopardy? Of course we aren't in the same situation - this is simply your misreading, but the fear and circumstances behind the fear are very similar.

Pakistan is crumbling but you cant draw any lessons from mughal empire to its crumbling.

The mughals and the marathas were finally defeated by the same enemy - the british. In case of pakistan and BJP (mughals & marathas by your analogy) that will not happen.

All states that crumble will have many competing factions in their end days. That is true for most collapses. So thats a truity, whether we talk about pakistan, mughals, or the Guptas.

Pakistan is declining along its economic axis and its centre of production are in relative decline while for mughals, their centers of production were not in decline (till the british arrived).

[ramana]

Royg has a point.
After the British took over from EIC in 1857, they split the power in British India to mirror the Mughals: civil administration aka babudom with Hindus and military with Muslims. In fact, in 1939 the BIA had 46% Muslims from what is now Pakistan.
Hugh Tinker.

[ramana]

In 2010 I wrote:

ramana wrote:
Based on released papers, the Allies had a simple strategy to win in WWII.

It was:

- Defeat Germany and then Japan.

Similarly, India now needs to
- dissuade PRC and draw TSP and defeat it.
TSP unfortunately is on this path and is not ready to see the reason.

The US is not a factor nor ever was. It goes with the winner.

Dissuasion of PRC requires various tactical elements which can be developed.

[RoyG]

Pakistan was created to preserve Islam, wipe out any political hegemony from Hindus, and create an apartheid state which it succeeded in doing. This is exactly what the Mughals did. This received wide support from the Ulema across the subcontinent which continues to this day. Now that Pakistan is slowly crumbling and Bangladesh has a friendlier regime, the Ulema is ramping things up. I believe JSD calls it Khilafat 2.0. What do expect them to do when state power is in jeopardy? Of course we aren't in the same situation - this is simply your misreading, but the fear and circumstances behind the fear are very similar.

Pakistan is crumbling but you cant draw any lessons from mughal empire to its crumbling.

The mughals and the marathas were finally defeated by the same enemy - the british. In case of pakistan and BJP (mughals & marathas by your analogy) that will not happen.

All states that crumble will have many competing factions in their end days. That is true for most collapses. So thats a truity, whether we talk about pakistan, mughals, or the Guptas.

Pakistan is declining along its economic axis and its centre of production are in relative decline while for mughals, their centers of production were not in decline (till the british arrived).

You don't have a good understanding of state capture and it's repercussions for the viability of the state itself. For this reason you yourself can't see the parallels between the Pakjabi-Ashrafi nexus and the Mughals. Both are very similar in that their primary source of revenue was rent seeking both in terms of land and it's resource output. Collusive entities which engage in rent seeking behavior don't care about GDP numbers, talent generation, innovation, high end manufacturing, etc.

Every collusive entity engages in PR to mask and market to capture suckers (converts). Pakistan btw has run out of them. Typically we refer to those who interface with the public to aid in the destructive enterprise as dalals. The dalals in this case are the Ulema. This actually hasn't changed much and the issue is that these dalals don't just exist in Pakistan. They span the entire subcontinent.

Now onto the further similarities. You are getting hung up on exact parallels. I claimed that they were somewhat similar from the pov of these dalals (Ulema). Very similar to the terminal decline of the Mughals, we are seeing a decline in the Pak Army. There many factors for this such as competing states, movements in society, global finance and technology, etc. Now the Ulema across the subcontinent are being activated and are making very similar speeches, calls for intervention by foreign powers to save this collusive entity which protects it.

Don't look at it as BJP translates directly to Marathas or Pak Army to Mughals. Look at the situation from the lens of clerical class which sustains it. The collusive entity which has captured the state is in decline and the Ulema is very concerned.

As far as the decline of industry until British arrived, this is incorrect to an extent for two reasons. The biggest beneficiaries of the agrarians and industrial output to the detriment of the population were the Mughal families and dalals both Hindu and Muslim which sustained it. Second, there were no major centers of learning which were created during the Mughal period which prevented the subcontinent from competing long term with the European powers. Again you can be the richest or poorest state but the behavior itself (rent seeking) is the same. I have no idea about the Guptas and the cause of their decline but for the reasons mentioned above I do see very striking parallels between now and the early 18th century.

What many don't realize you can't kill Pakistan unless you destroy Ulema class across the subcontinent. The two can't be seen as separate. It has to be total wipe out.