arvin wrote:If the order size crosses 100 (26 + 90), most likely we might have local assembly. Dassault would be looking for a second plant since they have to fulfill french air force orders on priority over exports.
In that case who would be the private partner, TATA, Adani, L&T.....
France's Defence Minister - Sébastien Lecornu - visited India last month. Met with with his Indian counterpart - Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh. They held their usual meetings, but the French Defence Minister clearly reiterated that a minimum 100 aircraft order is required to transfer a Rafale production line to India. IMVHO, this will happen for a number of reasons;
1) French President Emmanuel Macron has just proposed a massive increase in France's six year defence plan --->
https://tinyurl.com/rtyw9f2t. But more importantly, he wants the French naval and air arms to transition to an all Rafale fleet. So retire the Mirage 2000, which is their plan by the end of the decade or early next. France has planned for a total of 180 Rafales for their naval and air arms and around 150 aircraft have been delivered to date. They are going to order additional new build Rafale aircraft and upgrade their current fleet to the F4.2 standard which is due in 2027 if I am not mistaken. The F4.1 variant started flight tests in Q2 of 2021 I believe.
I personally believe that the French will eventually order more than their initial plan of 180 aircraft, as SCAF (France's 6th generation fighter program) is severely delayed and is not expected to arrive till the early 2050s. That is 30 years away and they have to keep the Rafale up-to-date with regular upgrades for the next 3+ decades. Rafale is their only viable combat aircraft or to use Dassault's marketing term - omnirole fighter. Do everything required - reconnaissance, anti-ship, air superiority, precision strike, SEAD/DEAD, etc. Dassault is already planning for the F5 variant and there are talks for F6 as well.
2) The French Air Force just received her first new build Rafale F3R in over four years -->
https://tinyurl.com/sc6834ke. However, they also have these orders to fulfil;
* Indonesia - 42 Aircraft
* UAE - 80 Aircraft
Side note, there is a massive Saudi deal in the works. But still too early to call --->
https://tinyurl.com/3acmcc7n
If India orders 26 Rafale Ms and additional Rafale C/Bs for her Air Force, Dassault will find it challenging to deliver all these foreign orders as per contract and also maintain deliveries to the French military. The line at Mérignac can churn out 33 airframes per year, but that will come at an increased cost in manufacturing for Dassault. The above deals are signed contracts and Dassault is required to deliver them at the stipulated price in the contract. And India is not going to wait till all the above deliveries are completed, for her deliveries to begin. Therefore, the only way to get around this impasse is to have a new line built.
This will be beneficial for Dassault, as two lines can obviously churn out aircraft quicker and the cost of a new line will be absorbed with a minimum 100 aircraft deal. This line can deliver aircraft to India and *perhaps* even foreign customers, but it depends on what the second line is expected to churn out each year. Air HQ's plan is induct approximately 11 to 12 MRFAs per year and I don't believe that plan has changed. The line at Mérignac currently does around the same. The end goal is to have a profitable line - whether at Mérignac or elsewhere.
The more interesting thing to watch for is this new production line will transition to a MROU (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul & Upgrade) facility, once deliveries are completed. This will be nice to have, because it will serve both India and International Rafale customers (UAE, Egypt, Indonesia and perhaps even Qatar). No more sending aircraft abroad for upgrades, but rather do them within the country.
Still too early to call on the private partner, although some are claiming that a potential second line will be a GOI run affair. The acronym that I have come across is DIAL (Dassault India Aviation Limited), which is going to replace DRAL (Dassault Reliance Aviation Limited). Such a venture will likely come post the 2024 general elections. If such a deal is announced in March of this year, we can safely assume that the BJP is super confident that they have 2024 in the bag with a comfortable majority.
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