Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Jan 2023 09:11

^^^^^

Doubt the Russians care. And, that is all that counts.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Jan 2023 15:15

ramana wrote:
IndraD wrote:in another news US is escalating home production of artillery shells to 100,000/month for Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/p ... ition.html
Can we have the text of the article?

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is racing to boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years, pushing conventional ammunition production to levels not seen since the Korean War as it invests billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls caused by the war in Ukraine and to build up stockpiles for future conflicts.

The effort, which will involve expanding factories and bringing in new producers, is part of “the most aggressive modernization effort in nearly 40 years” for the U.S. defense industrial base, according to an Army report.
The new investment in artillery production is in part a concession to reality: While the Pentagon has focused on fighting wars with small numbers of more expensive precision-guided weapons, Ukraine is largely relying on howitzers firing unguided shells.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the U.S. Army’s production of 14,400 unguided shells a month had been sufficient for the American military’s way of war. But the need to supply Kyiv’s armed forces prompted Pentagon leaders to triple production goals in September, and then double them again in January so that they could eventually make 90,000 or more shells a month.
Unguided artillery shells have become the cornerstone of the 11-month-old conflict, with both Ukrainian and Russian troops firing thousands of howitzer rounds at each other every day, along a front line more than 600 miles long. These weapons are most likely responsible for the greatest percentage of war casualties, which U.S. officials have estimated at more than 100,000 on each side.

The Army’s decision to expand its artillery production is the clearest sign yet that the United States plans to back Ukraine no matter how long the war continues.
The ammunition the United States has sent to Ukraine includes not just the 155-millimeter shells for howitzers, but also guided rockets for HIMARS launchers, thousands of antiaircraft and anti-tank missiles and more than 100 million rounds for small arms.
The howitzer shells currently in production — essentially large steel bullets filled with explosives — cannot be made as quickly as many consumer goods. Although the way they are built is slowly changing with increasing automation and newer technologies, the heart of the process — cutting, heating, forging and bending steel into shape — remains largely unchanged.

The Defense Department will fund new facilities to make artillery ammunition and is spending roughly $1 billion a year over the next 15 years to modernize government-owned ordnance production facilities in an effort to increase automation, improve worker safety and ultimately make munitions more quickly. Just since August, Congress has allocated $1.9 billion to the Army for the effort.
“We are really working closely with industry to both increase their capacity and also the speed at which they’re able to produce,” Christine Wormuth, the secretary of the Army, said last month, adding that this includes identifying “particular components that are sort of choke points” and “sourcing those to try to be able to move things more quickly.”
The State of the War
Military Aid: Germany and the United States announced they would send battle tanks to Ukraine, relenting after weeks of domestic and international pressure to deliver armored vehicles aimed at helping Kyiv regain territory seized by Russia. But it may be months before the tanks rumble across the battlefield.

Douglas R. Bush, an assistant secretary of the Army who is the service’s top acquisition official, said the United States is one of just a handful of countries that maintains significant reserves of such weapons in times of war and peace alike.
“In previous conflicts, we had stockpiles that were sufficient for the conflict,” Mr. Bush said in an interview. “In this case, we’re seeking to increase production to both maintain our stockpile for some other contingency but also supply an ally.”
“So it’s a bit of a new situation,” he added.

The unguided shells currently in production are just under three feet long, weigh roughly 100 pounds and are filled with 24 pounds of explosives — enough to kill people within 150 feet of impact and injure exposed soldiers more than 400 feet away.
So far the United States has sent more than one million of the explosive projectiles to Ukraine, while other NATO countries and major non-NATO allies of the United States have also contributed shells, largely without disclosing how many.

The Pentagon has declined to comment on the size of its reserves of 155-millimeter shells, but Mr. Bush said the planned increases in production would support Ukraine’s needs in real time and replenish the amount drawn down from existing stocks.
“We’re going to start seeing this summer our first significant step up in terms of rounds per month,” he said of the shell production goals. “The ramp really hits its stride in fiscal year 2024.”

What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.
Learn more about our process.

While the new investment in the nation’s ammunition plants will offer a significant boost in production, it is still just a fraction of the manufacturing capacity that the military mustered in the 1940s.

By the end of World War II, the United States had about 85 ammunition plants, according to a congressional report from late last year. Today, the Pentagon relies on six government-owned, contractor-operated Army ammunition plants to do most of this work.
The military’s ammunition infrastructure “is comprised of installations with an average age of more than 80 years,” and much of it still operates in “World War II-era buildings, and in some cases, with equipment from the same period,” according to the Army’s report on modernizing those facilities, which was drafted in 2021.

Representative Rob Wittman, Republican of Virginia and a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said the invasion of Ukraine was a “Sputnik” moment — referring to the 1957 Soviet launch of the first satellite into space — that made clear the need for this rapid expansion in ammunition manufacturing capacity in the United States.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has really exposed how brittle and fragile our supply chain is, particularly as it relates to munitions, which is now clearly kind of an emergency in terms of trying to replenish,” Mr. Wittman said this month, during remarks before a group of top Pentagon officials.
The production of artillery ammunition in the United States is a complicated process that primarily takes place in four government-owned facilities run by private defense contractors. The empty steel bodies are forged in factories in Pennsylvania run by General Dynamics, the explosives for those shells are mixed together by BAE Systems workers in Tennessee and then poured into the shells at a plant run by American Ordnance in rural Iowa, while the propellant charges to shoot them out of howitzer barrels are made by BAE in southwest Virginia.

The fuzes screwed into the nose of these shells, which are required to make the projectiles explode, are produced by contractors in other locations.
In November, the Army announced a $391 million contract with the Ontario-based company IMT Defense to make shell bodies and issued an order to General Dynamics to build a new production line for 155-millimeter shells at a factory in Garland, Texas.
A fourth domestic producer of 155-millimeter shell bodies will probably be announced soon, Mr. Bush said.
All of this increased production is likely to be used as quickly as it can be shipped to Ukraine’s border by U.S. Transportation Command.
The Ukrainians have been firing so many artillery barrages that about a third of the 155-millimeter howitzers provided by the United States and other Western nations are out of commission for repairs.
The Pentagon has also bought ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons that Ukraine had before the invasion and that still make up a large part of its arsenal: 100,000 rounds of ammunition for Russian-made tanks, 65,000 rounds of artillery ammunition and 50,000 Grad artillery rockets.
Those munitions are still being produced in limited numbers in some of the former satellite nations of the Soviet Union in Central and Eastern Europe.
“We’re not talking numbers that would dramatically move the dial,” Mr. Bush said. “Those kinds of options have been and are being evaluated.”
“The priority has been on providing NATO’s standard ammunition,” he said. “A lot of it, though, depends on what Ukraine wants.”
As the war dragged on, Russian forces found that they could not sustain the high levels of artillery fire they used to overmatch Ukrainian gun crews over the summer. By September, according to U.S. intelligence services, Russia was seeking to purchase artillery shells from North Korea, which still uses Soviet-caliber weapons. The next month, Ukrainian troops near the city of Kherson said Russia’s rate of fire had fallen to roughly the same as theirs.
In December, a U.S. defense intelligence analyst who was not authorized to speak publicly said reports from Russia indicated that the government in Moscow had ordered employees at munition plants to work additional hours in an effort to produce more ordnance for Russian forces to use in Ukraine, including artillery ammunition.
The experience in Ukraine has broadly reminded the Pentagon and military contractors that the United States needs to focus more on both basic artillery and missiles — not just the expensive equipment needed to fire these weapons.
Most militaries are focused on buying just enough weapons for short-term conflicts, Gregory Hayes, the chief executive of Raytheon Technologies, said last month at a conference in California with Pentagon leaders, referring to the stealthy F-35 fighters that his company helps build and that have been sold to the United States and many of its allies. “I think, if anything, what the Ukraine situation has taught us is that we need depth in our supply chain, depth in our war reserves, much more than we had ever expected.”

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jan 2023 18:26

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePollLady/ ... 5660055552

How are they being drafted

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 26 Jan 2023 19:00

The latest demand is to supply 190 miles capable missiles to Ukraine. This will be followed by the last demand of providing fighter jets.

It will be interesting to see how Russia reacts to the missiles being given as they will be. The West is on an escalation path continuously without an off ramp.

For those living in Europe with kids, is it too soon to worry about conscription?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 26 Jan 2023 20:15

It won't come to conscription for general European population.

A coalition of the willing with Poland and Romania backed by US will operate in Ukraine and attack' the Russian enclave of Transnistria in Moldova.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Jan 2023 05:34

30 minutes long.

Watch from 11:00 minutes onwards.

The dark side of history is repeating. And a lot out there know it too.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 27 Jan 2023 08:45

Tanaji wrote:... For those living in Europe with kids, is it too soon to worry about conscription?

Oh hell, never mind conscription, they should start worrying about nuclear war. It's not too soon for that.

As Lukashenko said, Poland and Lithuania have lost their minds.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Jan 2023 15:41

Ukraine’s new tanks won’t be the instant game-changer some expect
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/27/euro ... index.html

interesting US is worried about faceloss when M1 Abram will be destroyed by Kornet missiles!
Also Ukrops should stick to one tank (Leopard) so that US is not dragged in the conflict directly

mody · Post by **mody** » 27 Jan 2023 17:54

The pakis are reaping the rewards of the Korean 155mm artillery shell factory. They have been supplying large quantity of ammunition to NATO for Ukraine and the latest news about the IMF finally agreeing to visit Pakistan seems to be reward for this. The US and others might also be helping the pakis get the raw material required, as they can barely import anything currently.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 27 Jan 2023 18:07

The Pakis cannot out produce Korea, Israel or Europe in 155mm ammunition. They are probably giving 122mm and 155mm Ammo from existing stocks. 122mm is mostly Chinese supplied but compatible with Ukranian 122mm guns. I hope they are made to part with those T80 UD tanks also

mody · Post by **mody** » 27 Jan 2023 18:11

If the war really degenerates into a US/NATO vs Russia production war, then sooner or later, Russia will start loosing. In such a scenario, it would probably have to depend a lot more on China, to get a lot of the electronic components and raw materials needed to keep up the production rates.
China would probably happy to supply, so as to strain the NATO finances as much as possible and drain their war fighting reserves.

Interesting thing would be, what if Russia requests India for ammunition and some of the systems. For example, it could ask India for the Brahmos missiles. The missiles could be painted over to look Russian and Russia already has the Onix missile. Getting additional missiles from India would help them build and keep up the numbers. Besides, they could request for the air launched version, which could be deployed from Russian Su-30 fighters. India would have to provide help in integrating the missiles and also supply the missiles. Maybe even the rockets for the Smerch MBRL. Russia has the manufacturing capacity, but getting any kind of help on the same would be good. They can always have a barter trade with India and China with their Oil supplies.
Would India agree to this kind of a request from Russia? In case of any future wars, India might need similar help from Russia, whereas the US would be mighty dis-pleased, it they were to find out. Would be an interesting scenario, though I guess the people at large would probably never come to know, one or another.

mody · Post by **mody** » 27 Jan 2023 18:18

Aditya_V wrote:The Pakis cannot out produce Korea, Israel or Europe in 155mm ammunition. They are probably giving 122mm and 155mm Ammo from existing stocks. 122mm is mostly Chinese supplied but compatible with Ukranian 122mm guns. I hope they are made to part with those T80 UD tanks also

I doubt the pakis would be supplying several hundred container loads of ammo from their existing stock. It would leave them naked against India in arty fight off. They anyways struggle to keep up with the tempo with us, off late. Besides they have no money to produce large quantity of ammo on their own to make up for the lost stockpile. Mostly this would be the pakis supplying for cheap with some of the raw material being supplied to them for free.

Europe has already exhausted a lot of its stockpile and is furiously rebuilding, just like the US and with a lot of saber rattling by NoKo last year, I doubt SoKo would be supplying a lot of ammo for Ukraine. Maybe some, but not enough for the kind of fight that is going on in Ukraine.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jan 2023 19:31

Can Russia blow.up the ship from pakis?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Jan 2023 20:11

I have trawled the web to figure out the number of various serviceable weapon systems the Russians have and cross referenced sources.
This is my best estimate

In active Service, Reserve (and usable), Lost in Ukraine, Annual production

Tanks 4170, 6900, 1643, 480,
IFV (BMP 1,2,3) 4080, 1750, 1504, 240,
Anti tank vehicles 560, 470, 30, 20,
155mm SP Arty 1730, 1000, 240, 100,
Fighter aircraft 913, 0 132, 26,
Attack helicopters 288, 60, 118, 25,

- 155mm SP guns account for half of all artillery. The constraint in artillery is not guns, but shell production.
- Annual production is taken at double the 2020/21 figures. (Tank production in 2022 was 200)
- Attack helicopters exclude the Mi-24, which is of 70s vintage, except for 60 upgrades, kept in reserve.
- The actual number of fighter aircraft on active service is 1272. However, I have excluded old SU-24 & 25 (80's production) and
training aircraft, but included all those supposed to be upgraded and part of operational squadrons.
- IFV's exclude APC without significant armament (BTR series) and about 5000 1970/80s era BMP-1.
- Lost in Ukraine figures are largely based on Oryx (pics of each loss).
- I've assumed that for every aircraft loss, one more aircraft/Heli is damaged and not operational (actual losses are half).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Jan 2023 20:28

Some points to note w.r.t. Russian armaments production.

The military industrial complex had a requirement of 2 million people before the war, based on pre war orders. There was a shortfall of almost
400,000 workers to meet pre war orders. Hence, simply assuming that production will double if a plant works 2 shifts instead of 1, is wrong.
Mobilization has worsened the manpower situation. The problem the Russian MIC faces is very low productivity.

A significant amount of production capacity is devoted to refurbishing Soviet era equipment - this includes 155mm shells from the Soviet era,
T-72 tanks (they have anti javelin protection) and BMPs.

There are other constraints like imported parts. The engines for attack helicopters came from Ukraine - there is no Russian substitute yet.
Tooling for refurbishing tank and artillery barrels is imported. This is a huge constraint with most gun barrels deployed in Ukraine having exceeded
their useful life.

The only positive is that most losses in Ukraine have been Soviet era equipment. There are negligible losses of T-90's, BMP-3 or SU-34 & 35 aircraft.
All production is only of the most modern platforms (e.g. T-90's and T-14s are the only tanks being produced).

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Jan 2023 20:55

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine will become a "red line" for the Russian Federation https://twitter.com/warmonitors/status/ ... hYyYETkc5w

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 28 Jan 2023 02:49

Thanks Dean's. Very useful information.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 28 Jan 2023 13:44

Up the escalatory escalator (murcurious).

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Jan 2023 21:23

Ukr uses Himars missile to take out hospital

On Saturday morning in the town of Novoaidar, "the Ukrainian armed forces deliberately attacked the building of a district hospital with rockets of a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system," Russia's defence ministry said in a statement. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/16193526 ... pQcp1IfeJA

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Jan 2023 16:19

In depth, myth busting discussion about BTGs with a Russian military person

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jan 2023 11:13

Commentary on Russian strategy.

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/des ... armieshtml

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Jan 2023 11:14

Destruction of the proxy army is the objective.
Ukrainian are truly Pakis.
Same role.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Jan 2023 11:50

ramana wrote:Commentary on Russian strategy.

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/des ... armieshtml

^^^^^

The Mother of All Proxy Armies

The army the US/NATO built in Ukraine, by the beginning of 2022, had swelled to become the largest and best-armed land force in Europe. By almost every metric, it was more potent than the combined armies of Germany, France, and Italy.

European Land Forces 2022

Amazing

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Jan 2023 12:35

Question what is left after 11 months of conflict and how much of it is usable?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Jan 2023 12:49

As per reports, there are vast numbers of losses in men and materials on the UKN side. No one is denying it now. 100000 dead, as per EU President herself a couple of months back.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Jan 2023 13:26

That was before another 30-40 K dead along the Bakhmut front, Ukraine has replaced its artillery 3 times, it has had to rebuild its army 3 times, Ukrainians are being kidnapped from the streets to be recruited in the Military.

Also NATO has been flying 24*& AWACS missions, transporting men and material from the continental US, all this will have huge consumptions of spare parts etc.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 30 Jan 2023 14:26

In total, 381 airplanes and 204 helicopters, 2,980 unmanned aerial vehicles, 402 anti-aircraft missile systems, 7,670 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 995 combat vehicles equipped with multiple launch rocket systems, 3,956 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,218 units of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Above from the Russian DefMin daily report on the progress of the SMO of Jan. 29, 2023

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 30 Jan 2023 15:43

NATO is not setup for this kind of war. They built up the posture around shock/awe with missiles from ships first, then air dominance, and lastly send in army for peacekeeping.

This is a ground war with some missiles. They are proving inadequate. Till now. Key is how many bodies is ukr willing to throw at this. NATO production will ramp up.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 30 Jan 2023 16:00

Aditya_V wrote:That was before another 30-40 K dead along the Bakhmut front, Ukraine has replaced its artillery 3 times, it has had to rebuild its army 3 times, Ukrainians are being kidnapped from the streets to be recruited in the Military.

Also NATO has been flying 24*& AWACS missions, transporting men and material from the continental US, all this will have huge consumptions of spare parts etc.

I firmly believe that Ukrainian losses are now near the 300k mark while Russian losses are around 25k-30k men killed.

wig · Post by **wig** » 30 Jan 2023 16:23

https://www.news18.com/news/world/pak-f ... 51427.html

meanwhile

Pak Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Lands in Moscow, to Meet Russian Counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Monday

what do they discuss, hainji?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Jan 2023 16:33

wig wrote:https://www.news18.com/news/world/pak-f ... 51427.html

meanwhile
Pak Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Lands in Moscow, to Meet Russian Counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Monday
what do they discuss, hainji?

Well last year Im the DIm went there on 23 Feb 22 and 24 Feb 22. Wonder what is going happen now?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 31 Jan 2023 00:09

allegedely a Latvian gun in Ukr destroyed by lancet, is repair not possible?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Jan 2023 02:07

https://thecradle.co/article-view/20878 ... ant-refuse

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 31 Jan 2023 03:51

wig wrote:https://www.news18.com/news/world/pak-f ... 51427.html

meanwhile
Pak Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Lands in Moscow, to Meet Russian Counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Monday
what do they discuss, hainji?

Wow!!! Bulbul will go there with what message -- hey we supply arms and munition to ukraine sorry about that but we are friends with you please give oil for free ?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 31 Jan 2023 04:15

Should/Will Putin poison him?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 31 Jan 2023 04:47

ramana wrote: https://thecradle.co/article-view/20878 ... ant-refuse

From training the Ukrainian military “to use Western weapons, electronic warfare, and offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, and to seamlessly integrate new recruits in the service” to buttressing “defenses on the front lines, near the Donbass region,” including “combat training focusing on irregular warfare.”

Added to “imposing secondary sanctions on all entities doing business with the Kremlin,” we reach of course the Mother of All Plunders: “Confiscate the $300 billion that the Russian state holds in overseas accounts in the United States and EU and use seized monies to fund reconstruction.”

The reorganization of the SMO, with Putin, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and General Armageddon in their new, enhanced roles is derailing all these elaborate plans.

The Straussians are now in deep panic. Even Blinken’s number two, Russophobic warmonger Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland, has admitted to the US Senate there will be no Abrams tanks on the battlefield before Spring (realistically, only in 2024). She also promised to “ease sanctions” if Moscow “returns to negotiations.” Those negotiations were scotched by the Americans themselves in Istanbul in the Spring of 2022.

Nuland also called the Russians to “withdraw their troops.” Well, that at least offers some comic relief compared with the panic oozing from Blinken’s “offer you can’t refuse.” Stay tuned for Russia’s non-response response.

May be Nuland went to India to make a deal with Putin thru India?

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 31 Jan 2023 07:37

vijayk wrote:Should/Will Putin poison him?

not worth putins time

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 31 Jan 2023 07:47

Regarding Paki exports to Ukraine, my gut feeling is what the Pakis are exporting is American arms left behind in Afganistan, there is nothing much else the Pakis can export. All those M-4s, Ammo, spare parts, Trucks, Mraps etc.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 31 Jan 2023 10:48

Pakistan is supplying 155 shells made by Pakistani ordinance factory.

Not much more.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 31 Jan 2023 11:24

I dont think have so much spare capacity, what they are most probably supplying is stuff the Americans left back in Afganistan.