They are currently at RFI stage, RFP hasn’t even been issued yet, RFPs usually have a 6-12 month window to reply by then an evaluation period so let’s say we are T0 on the day RFP is issued (again IAF has not done so nor have they indicated it’s imminent)ramana wrote:So when are MRFA inductions supposed to start per IAF?
T0+18 months for responses to RFP to be assessed and OEMs invited to trails
T0+36 months trails are complete (at home and abroad)
T0+42 months IAF test team makes formal submission to IAF HQ with results (based on MMRCA timelines and IN’s MRCBF trails earlier this year)
T0+48 ‘down select’ of those found compliant with ASQR occurs and official bids are opened to find L1.
T0+50 L1 is declared and contract negotiations commence with relevant OEM
T0+74 terms are reached*
T0+86 CCS clears the deal (in the interim DAC has done the same)
T0+88 contract is signed
T0+124 the FIRST MRFA jet is handed over to the IAF (in France?)
T0+208 the last of the 114 MRFA is handed over to the IAF
*24 months for this process is VERY VERY optimistic considering this process took about 5 years for the C295 deal and for the original MMRCA deal after ~4 years they were still at an impasse. MRFA is a horrendously complex process that will be even harder to navigate so I’d be surprised if they can do it in less than 4 years.
So if the RFP is issued this year the entire process is wrapped up (all 114 in service) by…….. ~2040? And the above is with SEAMLESS flow from stage to stage, when have things ever been that smooth in I’d in procurement? The more you think about it the more absurd the MRFA demand is in 2022 when they haven’t even taken the pre-pre steps still. GoI is just as much to blame for being so asleep at the wheel that they can’t see the ride they are being taken on