Internal Security Watch

[SRajesh]

Well what can you say Ramanaji
Is it not true that initially the Hindu Majority Metei bore the brunt of the atrocities??
None of the media/network/politicos picked that up as they did not care because the Dharmics were suffering
Moment they fought back(either on their own or with state machinery colluding) the narrative has changed.
Now that the peacefuls have gotten into the act there will be a new item to diss
I am wondering whether its flood ravage and poor management or Raigad disaster or Teesta and her sufferings??

[sanman]

So just to correct the record, perpetrator's name is Huerim Herodas

[sanman]

Manipur problems need to be ended like Kashmir's were: remove autonomy (which is being misused by local forces to destroy peace & harmony), and remove reservations (which is a cause of tribal ethnic conflict). Instead redistribute infrastructure development beyond valley.

[RoyG]

JSD once said “Where Hindu majority ends, AFSPA begins”

This is the traditional line of thinking but it is not effective. If we want to combat this it requires a fundamental rethink of Indian culture. The goal of Indian stories and rituals is to pass on knowledge, not religion. This means that we have a irreligious (Not a-religious) vs religious conflict.

The solution will be to show the Semitic followers that they don’t have to rid themselves of Indian culture. It will go a long way toward preventing things like this form happening.

[sanman]

I hate to give exposure to Barkha, but victim's husband is a serviceman who deserves to be heard:

[sanjayc]

This lady is a white-appointed gutter inspector of India, on the lines of Catherine Mayo who wrote the book "Mother India." She collects atrocity literature against India for the whites.

Written in opposition to the movement for Indian independence, the book criticized India's treatment of women, the untouchables, animals, the countryside, and the character of its nationalistic politicians. A large part of the book dealt with the problems resulting from the marriage of young girls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother_In ... ng%20girls.

[krithivas]

ToI reports a peaceful beheaded his sister because of her affection for a Kaafir in UP. Now let’s hear the sound of silence. Because the pitch of condemnation depends on the identity of the victims and the identity of the perpetrators.

[krithivas]

**duplicate**deleted**

[chetak]

JSD once said “Where Hindu majority ends, AFSPA begins”

This is the traditional line of thinking but it is not effective. If we want to combat this it requires a fundamental rethink of Indian culture. The goal of Indian stories and rituals is to pass on knowledge, not religion. This means that we have a irreligious (Not a-religious) vs religious conflict.

The solution will be to show the Semitic followers that they don’t have to rid themselves of Indian culture. It will go a long way toward preventing things like this form happening.

janab,

where is/was the Hindu majority in cashmere or even in the NE

who is jsd...

[Jay]

At this point its clear that none of the decision makers know what to do with the Manipur situation. Not only has it devolved into a humanitarian crisis, but it's fast approaching a national security issue as well. One of the groups, Mizos is also involved in the rebellion against the junta in Myanmar and are mounting an effective campaign there. If these battle hardened groups start making their presence felt in the North East, we are going to be in a world of hurt and the the progress that was made in the regions in the last decade are so will be reversed.

While this is going on, just read what the duffer, incompetent, and a moronic CM of the state has to say.

"Manipur chief minister N. Biren Singh said that he has called for statewide protests in condemnation over the video that has “tarnished the state’s image.”"

We still have a window where this problem can be tamed, if not, this will go like the Nirbhaya case.

[ramana]

Jay, It always was a national security issue and is handled as such.
Rest is not germane.

[RoyG]

PGurus has presented the best analysis on the current manipur crisis. Toxic cocktail of reservations, drug/land mafia, and Christianity.



Interesting data points:

Manipur total land being used for poppy cultivation: ~16,000 acres = 25 squares miles

According to Wikipedia, "Between the 1961 and 2011 censuses of India, the share of Hindus in the state declined from 62% to 41%, while the share of Christians rose from 19% to 41%."

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I understand what is happening now - The drug/land mafia is actively promoting evanglicals to usurp land and build churches. They use these churches to launder the drug money. So it has now become a Drug-Land-Evangelical nexus. This is why they are against Meitei from claiming reservation and thereby greater proportion of land.

Whenever you have large scale narcotic cultivation like this, nobody is immune from the lure of $ including police/security forces and bureacracy. This is especially the case when it is close to the golden triangle, they are most likely using the common trade routes which are denominated in foreign currencies including dollar. This is a very lucrative operation and there is a huge pay off to gov officials which is why it got so big. Manipur CM is keeping quiet because he along with many of his civil servants are likely on their payroll either directly or indirectly. Can only flop around like an idiot and BJP high command including PMO doesnt want to touch it because it has now become to toxic.

[Sachin]

While this is going on, just read what the duffer, incompetent, and a moronic CM of the state has to say.

Can only flop around like an idiot and BJP high command including PMO doesnt want to touch it because it has now become to toxic.

The CM of Manipur has clearly proved that he is an incompetent bafoon. And this whole incident is being so much tom-tommed against the BJP, that it would have an effect on fence sitters in the next Lok Sabha elections. Especially that women are the victims etc. The central government can still use Article 356 and dismiss the incompetent state government. Congress party have dismissed state governments for far lesser reasons. BJP may lose Manipur, but it may be better than losing the whole country.

I also feel that Amit Shah is also incompetent when it comes to handling Home Ministry. Political manipulations, he is a champ there. But not in the home ministry. Better to replace him with Rajnath Singh or some one similar.

[Pratyush]

The timing of the release of the video is suspicious as well.

Coupled with the organised rioting and ethnic cleansing. Post the court order.

Also, who applied in the court for said order.

All this needs to be found out. Or else, this is just a trial run.

[srin]

First order of business would be to impose AFSPA over complete Manipur and get the Army take over the affairs.

I have other wish lists but I don't see any of them getting fulfilled: removal of inner line permits, removal of Article 371C (which only applies to hill districts) to begin with. Unless the north east regions become as outsider-friendly as any other part of India, I don't see the tribalism going away.

More importantly, we now know the playbook for 2024 elections. Stir up trouble in different parts of the country - Khalistan, NE (may be TN next ?), put the GoI on the backfoot by media coverage and make the admin look spineless (which they are, but I'll put that in the political thread). It is just frightening that the opposition doesn't care for the integrity of country, but just to win the next general elections.

[RoyG]

Tribes are basically Jatis which never lost their fighting ability. Don’t necessarily need to eliminate tribes altogether.

[sanman]

Naga militants in Mizoram are now demanding that all Meiteis leave the state, due to their anger over the May 4 sexual assault video.

Biren Singh is now trying to organize airlift of Meiteis from Mizoram.



Reading the comments section was toxic -- every Kuki is chiming in to gleefully declare how happy they are that Meiteis are now suffering eviction from Mizoram. This is disgusting.

Autonomy needs to be withdrawn from the Northeast, just as was done with Article-370 removal, due to misuse and abuse of autonomy powers.

[RoyG]

Going to hard to contain the fallout of all of this.

[sanman]

This worthless punk Huerim Herodas has created a George Floyd situation for us.

[Sachin]

The timing of the release of the video is suspicious as well.

Exactly, the Manipur situation was slowly coming back to normalcy when the video came out. And the main stream media, especially the secular ones are once again using this against Sangh Parivar. You should see the angst & agony (?) reported by main stream media and cinema-wallahs in Kerala, for example. They would not have so much agony and angst of this proportion if some thing happens in KL. I also suspect the RoP organisations (banned ones as well others) actively fanning the fire.

Biren Singh is now trying to organize airlift of Meiteis from Mizoram.

My understanding Meitis are predominantly Hindus (or at least not converted to other religions). So it is once again these folks who have to leave the place. And the CM is actively encouraging it. Has this Biren Singh even held a post of a Muncipial Corporation Chairman/Mayor? Seems to be totally incompetent and clueless.

[ramana]

While this is going on, just read what the duffer, incompetent, and a moronic CM of the state has to say.

Can only flop around like an idiot and BJP high command including PMO doesnt want to touch it because it has now become to toxic.

The CM of Manipur has clearly proved that he is an incompetent bafoon. And this whole incident is being so much tom-tommed against the BJP, that it would have an effect on fence sitters in the next Lok Sabha elections. Especially that women are the victims etc. The central government can still use Article 356 and dismiss the incompetent state government. Congress party have dismissed state governments for far lesser reasons. BJP may lose Manipur, but it may be better than losing the whole country.

I also feel that Amit Shah is also incompetent when it comes to handling Home Ministry. Political manipulations, he is a champ there. But not in the home ministry. Better to replace him with Rajnath Singh or some one similar.

Sachin, In Kerala, West Bengal, and Rajasthan Hindus and women in particular were targeted but no calls to impose Art 356 or dismiss CMs.
BTW Bommai Judgement puts severe restrictions on Art 356 invocation.

Being admin we have to have board understanding and can't post like others.

[Aditya_V]

Coverage of Manipur has been like the coverage of Gujarat in Mar and Apr 2002, anew Gujarati CM who took over Apr 21 was called incompetent. That coverage brought UPA to power. Seems they are trying to repeat the same tactics here.

[chetak]

This is a strategically engineered test case to oppose the CAA

This will be picked up and highlighted by the gora media

Her very entry into India was done just to put the Modi govt in a tight spot on the CAA issue

just deport her back to nepal and be done with it

It's nepal's problem not India's

Pakistani Citizen Seema Haider Files Mercy Petition With President Droupadi Murmu

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... r%20Noida.

[williams]

First order of business would be to impose AFSPA over complete Manipur and get the Army take over the affairs.

I have other wish lists but I don't see any of them getting fulfilled: removal of inner line permits, removal of Article 371C (which only applies to hill districts) to begin with. Unless the north east regions become as outsider-friendly as any other part of India, I don't see the tribalism going away.

More importantly, we now know the playbook for 2024 elections. Stir up trouble in different parts of the country - Khalistan, NE (may be TN next ?), put the GoI on the backfoot by media coverage and make the admin look spineless (which they are, but I'll put that in the political thread). It is just frightening that the opposition doesn't care for the integrity of country, but just to win the next general elections.

Dismiss the state govt, bring in the army, and first bring in order. Then they should start talking. Local issues can flare up into a big national security thing if left alone.

[krithivas]

PGuru's channel reports that three Muslim students installed hidden cameras in the bathroom of college hostels targeting 100's of Hindu girls. Apparently these videos are being circulated amongst their Muslim men for trapping and sexually abusing Hindu girls by Muslims (a.k.a. Kerala Story II). Just passing on this terrible news. The three Muslim students have been suspended and OpIndia carries this story:
https://www.opindia.com/2023/07/karnat ... om-udupi/

[RoyG]

First order of business would be to impose AFSPA over complete Manipur and get the Army take over the affairs.

I have other wish lists but I don't see any of them getting fulfilled: removal of inner line permits, removal of Article 371C (which only applies to hill districts) to begin with. Unless the north east regions become as outsider-friendly as any other part of India, I don't see the tribalism going away.

More importantly, we now know the playbook for 2024 elections. Stir up trouble in different parts of the country - Khalistan, NE (may be TN next ?), put the GoI on the backfoot by media coverage and make the admin look spineless (which they are, but I'll put that in the political thread). It is just frightening that the opposition doesn't care for the integrity of country, but just to win the next general elections.

Dismiss the state govt, bring in the army, and first bring in order. Then they should start talking. Local issues can flare up into a big national security thing if left alone.

AFSPA may be what they want. Better will be to do intelligence operation with special forces.

[Sachin]

Sachin, In Kerala, West Bengal, and Rajasthan Hindus and women in particular were targeted but no calls to impose Art 356 or dismiss CMs.

I get your point. But for sure, in all these states we do not have a riot situation. There are systematic moves against Hindus, but not widespread L&O issues. Manipur Govt and the L&O machinery there seems to be poor in handling the riots. Or they are partisan and have been siding one group. The state's CM still is not seen to be in a position to handle the situation.

Coverage of Manipur has been like the coverage of Gujarat in Mar and Apr 2002, anew Gujarati CM who took over Apr 21 was called incompetent.

Agree. Manipur situation is getting readied for election campaigns in year 2024. But GoI (and BJP) as a party has not been able to deal with these kind of situations. As I said earlier, on the economy front, industrialisation, roads & railways etc; BJP has been able to make a difference. Where it is failing is in controlling L&O problems. Simply put; they cannot figure out a way when large number of people get involved. Be it CAA riots, Farmer-Broker gang's protest riots or now the Manipur riots. The internal intelligence gathering also seems to be poor, as GoI and respective state governments are caught by surprise.

this is a strategically engineered test case to oppose the CAA
...
Her very entry into India was done just to put the Modi govt in a tight spot on the CAA issue

There is one woman from India who has crossed Pak borders to meet a Facebook friend. So now the score is India-1, Pak-1. GoI should just send this woman back to Nepal and her new found hubby (my name sake) to a closer location at Tihar. Also note how quickly the case has reached a Supreme Court lawyer, who even managed to get this pushed to President of India. Supreme Court lawyers do not come cheap.

[Cyrano]

Amidst all this, there is Garcetti's offer to "help with the Manipur situation if asked"... may be he is expecting the CJI to ask him because GoI surely wont.

[sanjayc]

Whites have a simple strategy --

First, convert the heathens with lure of money (they have standard racket running for 2,000 years under the guise of charity).

Second, put guns in the hands of the converts and tell them to agitate against the heathen government on the pretext of some manufactured grievances.

Third, jump into the fight in support of converts and make allegations of human right abuses against the heathen government, offer to help mediate between converts and the heathen government (what Garcetti is doing now).

Fourth, ask for a separate country for converts as the converts are apparently being "persecuted."

Fifth, give diplomatic recognition to the newly minted Christian country (East Timor) and ask to open military base there and give mining licences to White-owned companies in the new land won by the church.

Sixth, ask the converts to travel to Western lands for pilgrimage and cough up 10% of their income for the holy see (transfer of wealth from non-white to white man's coffers)

(Note: The trick for heathens is to thwart the white man at Step 1. The Whites are helpless without native converts to play with)

[Cyrano]

+108 sanjayc garu.
Thats why the west goes into a tizzy about Hindu nationalism and the idea of an officially Hindu India gives them heart attacks. Its not just the conversion rackets that are threatened but their entire colonial model.

[chetak]

Sachin, In Kerala, West Bengal, and Rajasthan Hindus and women in particular were targeted but no calls to impose Art 356 or dismiss CMs.

this is a strategically engineered test case to oppose the CAA
...
Her very entry into India was done just to put the Modi govt in a tight spot on the CAA issue

There is one woman from India who has crossed Pak borders to meet a Facebook friend. So now the score is India-1, Pak-1. GoI should just send this woman back to Nepal and her new found hubby (my name sake) to a closer location at Tihar. Also note how quickly the case has reached a Supreme Court lawyer, who even managed to get this pushed to President of India. Supreme Court lawyers do not come cheap.

Sachin ji,


The president gets thousands of petitions per day. She is not bound to respond to any of them, and it's not her job to short circuit the process or even respond personally, so she will steer clear and waste paper basket the petition, or at best, she may refer the matter to the home ministry and wash her hands of this garbage petition. That's the SOP.

The Indian lady in question has gone to terroristan with a valid paki visa and the pakis have not only investigated her in mucho detail on arrival, but also, after investigation allowed her to stay in pukestan for 30 days as per her visa terms. No problems there.

Her trip is all legal and above board.

Plus point for Indian lady is that four kids are not present and constant TV/media interviews are not being done by the Indian lady. She has been avoiding the paki media thus far

After the (nikah al-misyar or "traveller's marriage") and some presumably friendly pokes, said Indian lady will return home, on or before her visa expiry date or she will end up in a paki prison where the pokes may not be so friendly

[Jay]

AFSPA may be what they want. Better will be to do intelligence operation with special forces.

Roy ji, I do not think this should be a "military response" first, though that will be needed eventually. Any help from the army should be used to supplant the inept/incapable police force which failed to curtail the violence from both the groups and in some cases instigated it. This rioting/revenge violence need to be stopped first and for that I don't think the special forces have the right tools to handle this.

[Manish_P]

...

The Indian lady in question has gone to terroristan with a valid paki visa and the pakis have not only investigated her in mucho detail on arrival, but also, after investigation allowed her to stay in pukestan for 30 days as per her visa terms. No problems there.

Her trip is all legal and above board.

Plus point for Indian lady is that four kids are not present and constant TV/media interviews are not being done by the Indian lady. She has been avoiding the paki media thus far

...

Strange.. in one news article the Husband was quoted as stating that they are Christians.

Can't seem to find it now

[RoyG]

AFSPA may be what they want. Better will be to do intelligence operation with special forces.

Roy ji, I do not think this should be a "military response" first, though that will be needed eventually. Any help from the army should be used to supplant the inept/incapable police force which failed to curtail the violence from both the groups and in some cases instigated it. This rioting/revenge violence need to be stopped first and for that I don't think the special forces have the right tools to handle this.

The narcos have leaders and there are narcotic revenue streams which can be squeezed appropriately. I don’t think we need to bring down the axe on the state.

I think goi is trying to deal with this behind the scenes and make sure everybody rehabilitated and normalcy returns. Any big moves will be made into an attack on Christianity and the whole NE risks setting alight again.

[Haresh]

From the India Today archives (2000) | Indo-Pak weddings: When it’s freedom across the LoC

https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-i ... 2023-07-25

[Manish_P]

A typical aman ka tamasha farticle of the time, aimed at dhimmis

[chetak]

...

The Indian lady in question has gone to terroristan with a valid paki visa and the pakis have not only investigated her in mucho detail on arrival, but also, after investigation allowed her to stay in pukestan for 30 days as per her visa terms. No problems there.

Her trip is all legal and above board.

Plus point for Indian lady is that four kids are not present and constant TV/media interviews are not being done by the Indian lady. She has been avoiding the paki media thus far

...

Strange.. in one news article the Husband was quoted as stating that they are Christians.

Can't seem to find it now

As expected.....

Married Indian woman weds her Pakistan Facebook friend

Anju, a married Indian woman who travelled legally to Pakistan, during a sightseeing trip with her Facebook friend Nasrullah (unseen), in Upper Dir district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan.


https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... m-8860406/

Anju, the Indian mother of two children who travelled to a remote village in Pakistan, married her Facebook friend on Tuesday after converting to Islam and now has a new name Fatima.

The 34-year-old Indian woman was staying at her 29-year-old Pakistani friend Nasrullah’s home in the Upper Dir district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. They became friends on Facebook in 2019.

They tied the knot in a local court of a district and sessions judge amid tight security.

“Nasrullah and Anju’s marriage was solemnised today and a proper nikkah was performed after she converted to Islam,” senior officer at Moharrar City Police Station in Upper Dir district Muhammad Wahab told

[chetak]

Roy ji, I do not think this should be a "military response" first, though that will be needed eventually. Any help from the army should be used to supplant the inept/incapable police force which failed to curtail the violence from both the groups and in some cases instigated it. This rioting/revenge violence need to be stopped first and for that I don't think the special forces have the right tools to handle this.

The narcos have leaders and there are narcotic revenue streams which can be squeezed appropriately. I don’t think we need to bring down the axe on the state.

I think goi is trying to deal with this behind the scenes and make sure everybody rehabilitated and normalcy returns. Any big moves will be made into an attack on Christianity and the whole NE risks setting alight again.

sid luwang@sidluwang·Jul 20

[chetak]

If Modi says anything on this issue, the opposition and the BIF controlled media will turn it into an ethnic conflict precipitated by the BJP and the Hindu meiteis. Hence the radio silence.

pappu and his BIF gang have pulled out all stops to pin the blame for the manipur problem squarely on Modi

via Firstpost

To get a better perspective on the ongoing instability in Manipur, turn your attention to catastrophic crises in Myanmar

To get a better perspective on the ongoing instability in Manipur, turn your attention to catastrophic crises in Myanmar

Ritual incantation of ‘Meitei majoritarianism’ won’t take us closer to the truth, or provide a lasting solution

Sreemoy Talukdar
July 21, 2023

To get a better perspective on the ongoing instability in Manipur, turn your attention to catastrophic crises in Myanmar



People from Manipur participate in candle light vigil demanding peace and to raise concern over the current conflicts in Manipur, at Mukundapur in Kolkata on 17 June, 2023. PTI

External affairs minister S Jaishankar recently returned from a week-long trip to Indonesia and Thailand. In Jakarta, Jaishankar took part in a clutch of meetings with his East Asian counterparts under ASEAN-India, East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) frameworks.

He also took time out to meet Chinese state councillor and foreign minister Wang Yi, US secretary of state Antony Blinken, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. While these meetings and pull-asides expectedly dominated the headlines, it is the second leg of Jaishankar’s trip that went under-noticed but demands greater attention.

In Bangkok, advancing India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East policies, Jaishankar co-chaired the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) meeting and attended the BIMSTEC foreign ministers’ retreat. Founded in 2000, the MCG framework brings together India, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar — a pariah nation in high-level ASEAN summits owing to the junta’s lack of progress on the ‘five-point peace plan’.

Myanmar military’s 2021 coup d’état has completely upended regional diplomacy, turned the Southeast Asian nation into a restive state beset with violent crackdown on anti-junta protestors, ethnic rivalry and civil war, and has brought a simmering crisis bang on India’s doorstep, affecting the sensitive northeastern states.

As we shall presently see, the catastrophic incidents in Myanmar, coupled with America-led West’s grave and repeated policy failures, have not only complicated India’s dynamics with Naypyitaw, but have also led to a complex chain of events leading to an explosion of ethnic violence in Manipur that New Delhi is struggling to control.

If the Kuki and Meitei communities are pitted against each other in an orgy of retributive violence since May, then the administration must share the lion’s share of the blame. It is equally true that confirmation bias has become normalised in media commentaries. Contrary to popular discourse, the Manipur crisis isn’t one-dimensional, nor are the painful developments occurring in medias res. (in medias res (Classical Latin: [ɪn ˈmɛdɪ.aːs ˈreːs], lit. "into the middle of things"))

To get a better perspective on the factors destabilizing the key northeastern state — eschewing the blind-men-and-elephant syndrome — we need to turn our attention to the multifaceted crises unfolding in dysfunctional Myanmar, the military-ruled, conflict-torn nation that shares a 1,700km-long frontier with four Indian states, including a 400km unfenced, permeable border with Manipur.

ASEAN may deny Myanmar a seat at the table. India doesn’t have that luxury. It wasn’t a surprise to note Jaishankar take time out in Bangkok to meet the foreign minister from Myanmar’s military-led government, U Than Swe, on the sidelines of the MCG summit on Sunday.

During the scarce bilateral, Jaishankar raised several critical issues with his counterpart, including the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway, the stalled project that India is finding “very difficult” to execute, “the humanitarian situation in Myanmar”, on which the minister “proposed people-centric initiatives aimed to address the pressing challenges”. As Jaishankar noted on Twitter, “India supports the democratic transition process in Myanmar and highlights the need for return of peace and stability. We will closely coordinate our policy with ASEAN in this regard.”

During his meeting with Than Swe, Jaishankar also “underlined the importance of ensuring peace and stability in our border areas.” In language that is unusually strong for a former career diplomat known to be frugal and judicious with words, the minister said India’s border areas have been “seriously disturbed recently and any actions that aggravate the situation should be avoided”.

The minister’s words reflect India’s anxiety over the turn of events in Myanmar that have added to the instability in Manipur. Underlining the complexity of the issues involved, Jaishankar said he also “flagged concerns about human and drug trafficking” and “urged stronger cooperation among relevant parties for the early return of trafficked victims.”

To put this in perspective, Jaishankar’s meeting with Than Swe followed India’s defence secretary’s recent two-day official visit to Myanmar, during which Giridhar Aramane called on key figures in the ruling junta’s State Administrative Council (SAC). His engagements included meetings with the military regime chief, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, defence minister Gen (Retd.) Mya Tun Oo, commander-in-chief, Myanmar Navy, Admiral Moe Aung and chief of defence industries Lt Gen Khan Myint Than.

In a press statement released on 1 July, India’s defence ministry said: “the two sides discussed issues related to maintenance of tranquillity in the border areas, illegal trans-border movements and transnational crimes such as drug trafficking and smuggling. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to ensure that their respective territories would not be allowed to be used for any activities inimical to the other.”

Two questions arise. One, why is trans-border movement in focus? Two, with Manipur burning, why are Indian ministers and high-ranking officials engaging with Myanmar?

We get an inkling of the answers and a sense of India’s urgency when we note that Aramane was accompanied by a delegation of officials from the ministries of defence, external affairs and armed forces, and as Indian Express reports, “support to the valley based insurgent groups, the inflow of arms to rioters and tacit external support compounding the lawlessness in the state were also on the agenda for discussions.” The newspaper further reports, quoting sources, that “the timing of the visit is significant with increasing narcotics smuggling and drug trafficking from Myanmar since ethnic clashes broke out in Manipur in May.”

The destabilizing factor of armed insurgents from Myanmar — many of whom have kinship ties with transnational ethnic communities straddling India and its immediate neighbours — slipping into the northeastern states through the porous border and adding to the complexity of Kuki-Meitei clashes and exacerbating the ongoing conflict in Manipur, has been under-reported.

To escape the crackdown by Myanmar’s military regime, ethnic Kuki-Chin people have entered India by thousands since the coup in 2021. According to figures from UNHCR, the refugee agency of the United Nations, the ongoing civil war in Myanmar has displaced 1,827,000 people since February 2021, among which over 53000, mostly from the conflict-ridden Chin state and Sagaing region of Myanmar — the hotbed of armed resistance against the junta — have entered India’s northeastern states of Mizoram and Manipur till the month of May 2023.

The volatile situation in Myanmar has created a breeding ground for a spate of armed insurgent groups operating in the grey zone between the porous India-Myanmar frontier. While groups such as PDF (People’s Defense Forces), the armed wing of Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government, primarily carry out hit-and-run attacks against the military junta, some also act against India’s interests.

What has complicated the situation further for India is that the Myanmar military, desperate to tackle the anti-junta forces and ethnic armed organizations, has reportedly reached an understanding with some anti-India insurgency groups “to assist junta forces in their operations against PDFs in the so-called ‘liberated zones’ such as Chin State and Sagaing Region.”

As Washington DC-based think tank USIP observes in a report, “far from denying territory to Indian rebels, the junta is offering them sanctuary in Myanmar in return for fighting the pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces and ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) in Sagaing Region” and rebel groups such as The People’s Liberation Army of Manipur, in turn, are using “Myanmar territory as a staging ground for attacks in India.”

If the conflict has spilled over onto India’s borders, a part of the blame must also go to the US-led West whose policy failures have a direct bearing on India’s national security. The West’s economic sanctions on the Southeast Asian nation may have done little to force the ruling military junta into restoring democracy, but it has made life miserable for citizens, opened the door wide for China to increase its influence and created the perfect atmosphere for intensification of political dislocation and civil war in Myanmar.

America’s policy failures have worsened the Myanmar crisis in two ways. One, wave after wave of debilitating sanctions (the US has imposed 20 rounds targeting key figures of the military junta, defence ministry, business entities, state-owned enterprises and brokers while the European Union and the UK have imposed six separate rounds) have triggered a meltdown in Myanmar’s economy. Investors have been spooked away, unemployment rates have shot up while the currency has suffered a collapse.

As the Diplomat notes in a report, “nearly 40 percent of the total working-age population (in Myanmar) are out of work, while almost half of households reported a decrease in incomes over the past year, compared to just 15 percent reporting the reverse. The World Bank also cited a survey from May that found 48 percent of farming households worry about not having enough food to eat, up from about 26 percent the year before.”

The military junta, that has been targeted by American sanctions regime for decades until Barack Obama reversed the course, has shaken off the restrictions with ease, but the punitive measures have left the US with no leverage over the Tatmadaw.

In the absence of any concurrent engagement mechanisms, as geostrategist Brahma Chellaney writes in The Strategist, American “interventions are likely to plunge Myanmar into greater disorder and poverty without advancing US interests. Even in the unlikely event that the disparate groups behind the armed insurrection manage to overthrow the junta, Myanmar would not re-emerge as a democracy. Rather, it would become a Libya-style failed state and a bane to regional security. It would also remain a proxy battleground between Western powers and China and Russia.”

The second policy failure of the American state is its stated decision to back the armed insurgents operating within Myanmar that are seeking to overthrow the regime. The BURMA Act “authorizes the appropriation of funds for FY 2023 to 2027 for various forms of assistance, including ‘programs to strengthen federalism in and among ethnic states in Burma, including for non-lethal assistance for Ethnic Armed Organizations in Burma’.”

In retaliation, the regime has stepped up its brutalities in Myanmar’s Chin state and the northwestern Sagaing regions, both bordering India and offering the stiffest armed resistance to the military regime. The junta, in a massive airstrike on the resistance movement outside Pazigyi village in Sagaing region on 11 April, killed more than 100 people, including children, using deadly ‘enhanced blast’ munitions, also known as ‘vacuum bomb’.

The brutal attack forced many of the ethnic Kuki-Chin people to flee to India. Reuters reported last month, quoting Indian security officials and civil society groups that three Indian states of Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland are currently sheltering around 16,000 people from Myanmar, “with the number expected to rise in coming months”, and leaving officials worried “that the region could become a staging post for pro-democracy activists and stoke instability.”

The influx of refugees, including armed militants, has added to the volatility in Manipur where anger has started rising over illegal infiltration and its possible effect over employment and land rights in a state where ethnic tribal groups are shaped along political and geographical divides.

According to a report in Economic Times, the violence in Manipur that has resulted in widespread arson, death, displacement and atrocities on women, is linked to militant outfits operating in Manipur that are based in Myanmar. The report quotes a senior government official, as saying, “Just see the scale of violence and mobilisations. Gun-toting people were seen killing people. If militants were not involved, the situation cannot have aggravated to such an extent.”

According to a report in the Diplomat, “In the last week of April, a random identification drive by the Manipur government as part of the population commission’s work (the commission was set up last year to track illegal immigration) identified 1,147 undocumented Myanmar nationals in 13 locations in Tengnoupal district, 881 persons in three locations in Chandel district, and 154 persons in Churachandpur district”. The report further quotes a government official, as saying, “Chandel, Tengnoupal, and Churachandpur are Kuki-dominated districts along the Myanmar border.”

During a press conference on 1 June from Imphal, post his visit to the strife-torn state, Union home minister Amit Shah said biometrics of people coming from across the border are being recorded and “for a permanent solution” to the instability in Manipur, “we have set up wired fencing across 10 kilometers of the Manipur-Myanmar border on a trial basis, work tender has been invited for fencing on another 80 kilometers, and a survey for fencing the rest of the Manipur-Myanmar border is being initiated.”

This complex web of issues behind the ethnic clashes in Manipur will remain incomplete without exploring the drug angle, a reference that has repeatedly cropped up during high-level interactions between India and Myanmar.

In his piece for The Diplomat mentioned earlier, Snigdhendu Bhattacharya quotes JNU professor Bhagat Oinam, a Meitei by ethnicity, as saying, that while Kuki-Chin ingress has happened in Manipur over decades, “what has happened over the past few years is an explosion in poppy cultivation in Manipur’s Kuki-dominated districts backed by drug cartels and insurgent groups with a cross-border network, resulting in huge loss of forest cover”, a problem that aggravated since the 2021 coup when the influx intensified due to persecution of the Kuki-Chin community by the military regime. “A section of these illegal immigrants is being used by the drug and weapon cartels in Manipur,” said the professor, according to the report.

While the Kuki groups have dismissed these allegations as insidious narratives, studies have pointed out how Myanmar has become the “largest producer of illegal drugs within the infamous Golden Triangle—a tri-junction at the Myanmar, Laos and Thailand borders” that makes its way to India through the porous border.

Supply of drugs from the Golden Triangle remains a problem. In recent times, however, poppy cultivation has proliferated in the hilly areas of Manipur. According to a report in Economic Times, “narcotics trade is playing a significant role in Manipur violence” and the drug cartels are utilizing large chunks of the hilly districts for “quality poppy cultivation”.

As Manipur shifts its status from a transit route for drugs to major producer fuelled by armed refugees from Myanmar, a report by the Netherlands-based Transnational Institute, released in December 2021, observes how “opium cultivation in Manipur seems to be more integrated within the regional drug economy and connected to other actors, notably from Myanmar.”

It is evident that while a knotty vortex of issues has contributed to the instability in Manipur, ritual incantation of “Meitei majoritarianism” to explain the unrest amounts to little more than a projection of the left-liberal ideological bias. Unless a holistic approach is adopted by the Indian state that looks at the Manipur issue in all its multifaceted complexities, a permanent solution will elude us.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

[Manish_P]

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As expected.....

Married Indian woman weds her Pakistan Facebook friend

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Good luck to her

As the saying goes - jald hi aatey-daal ka bhaav pata chal jayega

(Aur bijli ka bhi)