I would question these points. Xi is more in control right now than ever before. He is like Mao at his strongest. Mao even had put Deng under house arrest and had his wife and favourites designated to take over. The "gang of four" died in a plane crash and then Deng moved in.SSridhar wrote: ↑29 Aug 2023 19:22 I therefore take a different view. There are other domestic issues that would be potentially more inflammable than a war with India and more certain of achieving the aims of deposing XJP. Besides, the domestic situation will only get worse as XJP steadily loses control. It can also happen that a totalitarian like XJP may decide to go to war with India in desperation to save himself thinking that it would be a low-hanging fruit that would bolster his chances. The echo-chamber of the PSC & CMC might lead him down the garden path. But, that's an entirely different matter.
Either way, war is on the horizon.
The control of Xi on the party is stronger than ever because he managed to get rid of all possible opponents. The party has gotten a lot more unpopular since Zero Covid, cutting of pensions, mass unemployment, drop in housing prices (and family wealth) etc. However, they don't have to be popular, just powerful. They still have full control of the Peoples Armed Police and PLA, so the public is not a serious threat to the party.
Even a broad skirmish along the India-Tibet border like 1962 would not really gain much popularity for the party. It will at best be a lollypop for public consumption, if they win. The majority of the population doesn't even know that PLA is not in full control of the territories shown on their maps. Taiwan is the real big fancy dream the public has been offered for decades. If it is really a make or break situation for the party, then Taiwan it will be.
Since he has surrounded himself with yes men, I agree that the echo chamber might lead to a major miscalculation. But based on the pattern, Xi is not a politician trying to get popularity in a pragmatic way. He is a delusional great leader who wants to do great things and rejuvenate the Chinese people, so will probably go for reuniting the motherland in a grand way. Hong Kong was the first step, Taiwan is next, there is a pattern emerging