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suryag wrote: ↑16 Sep 2023 22:35Great interview of Harsh Thakur and Raghavan, wonderful questions and great answers, for people from outside UP it is an eye opener
[youtube]0Fy9gT228AE[youtube]
Also see this interview by Raghavan of Vishnu shankar jain, awesome insights into Kashi mandir and Mathura issue
[youtube]QRDUJID0El4[youtube]
please subscribe and support this young man we need people like him to bridge the divide between TN and the north
(Please don't jump on me but this menu is uninspired and unappetizing, IMHO. I know how millets taste - all kinds of milletts. There are better dishes if you go more rural. This is menu is cooked up by some 7* Lutyens cheff - not Modi ji's chef or PV saab's personal chef (whom I know personally and had tasted his cullinary perparations.)
Vayutuvan Saar,
The govt is on a millet promotion spree, both health wise and also to support farmers and to help with water tables. Now millets, by themselves are unappetizing just like only rice without additions. but millets cooked with proper condiments will give them a variety of flavors (of course it needs getting used to, especially for people who eat white rice everyday).
these are also very good substitute for rice eaters who are also suffering from diabetes.
what better way to promote the same by serving these to dignitaries and official govt representatives rather than kababs and biryanis and any high couture puddings and cakes.
UPI
9 New IIT
9 New IIM
15 New IIITs
Stable Govt
12 Cr Toilets
Ram Mandir
370 Removal
12 New AIIMS
3.5 crore Homes
75 new Airports
40 Cr Mudra Loans
50 cr got Health cover
2.7 lakh Km Rural Roads
13 Cr homes got tap water
78,000 Km National Highway
Happy Birthday Modi ji
You are an inspiration for 1.4 billion people. No other PM did so much for the bottom of pyramid
RajaRudra wrote: ↑17 Sep 2023 18:10
Special Session..Did the suspense over?
The agenda seems to be passing of a bill regarding he posting of Chief and other Election Commissioners, plus two other bills. The Election Commission related bill is important. SC was asking for a panel in setting up an appointment in which even one SC judge would be a member. The reason they said that was that there was no Act which described the process of appointing the CEC and other EC.
I have been running a few numbers for Karnataka and Bengal [two states whose political topography I am somewhat familiar with] and will do the same for Telangana once the elections are over. For the time being, let me, without further ado, post what the numbers say for the 28 seats of Karnataka and the 42 seats for Bengal. All inputs from knowledgeable folk are welcome.
Taking the votes from the just concluded Assembly elections, and mapping the votes to the Lok Sabha constituencies, this is what the numbers tell us.
Karnataka
BJP is ahead of the Congress ON ITS OWN in the following seats in Karnataka.
Belgaum [91K], Dharwad [57K], Uttara Kannada [49K], Shimoga [77K], Udupi-Chikmaglur [73K], Dakshina Kannada [85K], Bengaluru North [1.66 lakh], Bengaluru South [1.17 lakh]. This makes it eight seats where BJP, just based on the Assembly election votes, is ahead of the Congress. These eight seats should be fairly easy wins for the BJP, unless they do something seriously to screw themselves up in LS24.
JD(S) is ahead of the Congress on its own in only one seat - Hassan [58K]. [On a side note, we can see why Deve Gowda was very keen on an alliance with the BJP - even his Hassan bastion is under threat now, without the BJP].
However, there are two mitigating factors for the BJP.
a) The BJP invariably performs better in LS, getting 5-10% more vote [this translates to 50K-1 lakh more votes] in every constituency. So, if the BJP is behind by <1 lakh, we can assume that it has a fighting chance.
b) The JD(S) alliance should be able to transfer anywhere between 2/3 to 3/4 of its votes, in every constituency where it has >1 lakh votes. [If it has <1 lakh votes, then it is mostly the candidate vote that it may not be able to transfer much]. In fact, BJP and JD(S) are both *Hindu parties* in that most of their vote comes from Hindus. Almost all minorities vote the Congress. Further, the cadres [and even voters] of both are very anti-Congress - so the alliance is much more compatible. One reason why the Congress-JD(S) alliance failed is because the two parties compete against each other much more. However, BJP does not compete against the JD(S) so much, so there is less friction.
Let us look at those seats where the BJP, ON ITS OWN, is <1 lakh behind the Congress according to the Assembly elections.
Bagalkot [-56K], Bijapur [-97K], Raichur [-8K], Bidar [-61K], Haveri [-82K], Tumkur [-21K], Bengaluru Central [-71K], Chikkaballapura [-70K]. All these eight should be winnable. And especially in Raichur, Tukmur and Chikkaballapura, the JD(S) will have significant vote share to contribute. Further, the JD(S) is behind by 1 lakh in Mandya, and they should be able to retain it, even if the Congress gives its support to Sumalatha Ambareesh [Independent, supported by BJP last time]. BJP has enough to contribute in this region to the JD(S) now.
So, thus far, out of the 28 seats, we have seen that the BJP-JD(S) is ahead in 9 seats, and can [and most probably will] be able to make up the difference in 9 more seats. This brings us to the last 10 seats where the BJP-JD(S) alliance might find the going a bit dicey. Let us look at them one after the other.
a) Chikkodi - BJP was about 1.36 lakh in deficit in this seat, and will probably be facing the formidable Prakash Hukkeri, or may be even Satish Jarkiholi. BJP also has a very powerful leader, Annasaheb Jolle, here, so it will be a very tough fight in this constituency. This seat has always been a tough one for BJP, and BJP even lost it in LS14 to the selfsame Prakash Hukkeri. So, a difficult prospect, but not impossible.
b) Gulbarga - This is Kharge's seat which BJP had managed to snatch during the Modi wave in LS19. BJP might find this very tough to retain.
c) Koppal - This is a seat which BJP has held from a long time, and they have a decent MP in Karadi Sanganna. However, he doesn't get along with the BL Santhosh group [which is currently in charge in BJP], so this may be a bit tough. Not impossible, but tough due to BJP infighting.
d) Bellary - BJP is 2.7 lakhs in deficit. Even with JD(S), they are 1.76 lakhs in deficit. Even a heavyweight like Sreeramulu was routed in the just concluded Assembly election. Hard to retain.
e) Davanagere - BJP is 1.3 lakhs in deficit here. The MP, GM Siddheshwara, is a decent one, but he again doesn't get along with Santhosh's group. He is a favourite of Yediyurappa, as I remember. Infighting here might kill BJP's chances, but if the BJP patches up its infighting, they are in with a fighting chance.
f) Chitradurga - BJP is 2.97 lakhs in deficit here. BJP was never strong in this region and only won last time due to the Modi wave. Unlikely to repeat. JD(S) doesn't have a lot to offer here either, though they did get some 2.29 lakh votes in VS23, it was heavily based on candidates.
g) Mysore - This is Pratap Simha's seat, but BJP performed abominably in the just concluded VS23. They lost even strongholds like Virajpet, Madikeri and Chamaraja, and are 2.29 lakhs in deficit. Worse, this is Siddaramaiah's stronghold area, and even with the JD(S) votes transferring, may be hard to keep. Keep fingers crossed and hope Pratap Simha can do something in the next six months.
h) Chamarajanagara - BJP won this last time due to the Modi wave, but is 3.12 lakh votes in deficit, and has lost powerful leaders like AR Krishnamurthy to the Congress. It still has Somanna and VS Srinivasa Prasad, but this is also Siddaramaiah's seat, and will be almost impossible to keep, especially if the Congress fields Dhruvanarayana.
i) Bengaluru Rural - This is DK Shivakumar's seat. BJP, on its own, is 2.03 lakh votes in deficit, but if the JD(S) votes are added, then, it has 1.69 lakh votes SURPLUS. Can they retain this against DK Shivakumar's brother, especially if they decide to take a risk and throw someone like Kumaraswamy into the fray? This is a big question mark, given DK Shivakumar's clout in the area, but BJP-JD(S) has nothing to lose by throwing Kumaranna into the fray. This was won by the Congress last time too.
j) Kolara - BJP won the seat last time, but put up a horrible performance in the region (only 1.94 lakh votes) in VS23, mostly due to lousy candidates. The JD(S) put up a surprisingly good show, winning 4.71 lakh votes against the Congress' 5.8 lakh votes there. BJP might do well to hand over this seat to the JD(S) [grapevine has it that JD(S) is supposed to get four seats - let them take Hassan, Mandya, Bengaluru Rural and Kolara]. Can the BJP and JD(S) combine to win this seat? BJP and JD(S) have no history of working in the region, but they also have no animosity in the region, since BJP is too weak there. Whether they can win is an open question.
All said and done, BJP should still get ~15 seats, with its JD(S) ally getting another couple, unless something goes drastically wrong. However, there is one major worry for the BJP. There are no leaders at all in the Karnataka BJP, there is no leader of the opposition appointed still, and BJP's internecine warfare shows no signs of abating at all, with the warfare becoming a free for all affair. Modi and Shah should appoint a good leader, rein in BL Santhosh and his RSS friends, and STEP BACK, leaving Karnataka BJP leaders to manage Karnataka. Otherwise, the above calculations can fail disastrously.
Bengal
Looking at the BJP's panchayat performance and the performance in the recent bypolls, it is safe to assume that the BJP has more or less returned to the shape it was in in VS21 in Bengal. Keeping this assumption, let us see where the BJP is above AITC in the Lok Sabha constituencies.
BJP is ahead, ON ITS OWN, of the AITC in the following seats
Cooch Behar [73K], Alipurduars [1.43 lakhs], Jalpaiguri [7K], Darjeeling [2.66 lakhs], Ranaghat [1.01 lakh], Bangaon [14K], Arambag [11K], Tamluk [21 votes], Kanthi [29K], Purulia [2K], Bishnupur [29K]. In these eleven seats, BJP is ahead of AITC, and should be able to win. The one problematic seat here is Purulia, where an alliance between AITC and INC can play spoilsport due to the Congress transferring its votes [1.5 lakhs] to AITC. However, given that the Congress leader of the region, Nepal Chandra Mahato, and the local AITC are daggers drawn due to the murder of Congressmen in the area by AITC, the possibility of Congress transferring its votes en masse to TMC is remote. So, it should be safe.
Just as in Karnataka, BJP tends to do better in Lok Sabha than in the Assembly; so an additional 50K-1lakh vote for BJP in Lok Sabha is not impossible. Assuming that BJP can get another 1 lakh vote more in Lok Sabha, let us look at where the BJP has a good chance.
Balurghat [-89K], Barrackpur [-98K], Ghatal [-83K], Medinipur [-94K], Bankura [-17K], Bardhaman Purba [-1 lakh], Bardhaman Durgapur [-97K], and Asansol [-55K].
Of these seats, BJP should be able to win Ghatal [Suvendu Adhikari's neighbourhood], Bankura [especially if they replace the sitting MP, Subhas Sarkar, who seems unpopular], and Asansol. These three should not be too hard. Among the others, Balurghat and Medinipur are possible, but not easy, though. Sukanta Majumdar may be able to scrape through in Balurghat [he seems reasonably well-liked, but he is facing Mamata's formidable machinery in the region], but Dilip Ghosh in Medinipur will find the going tough, especially as he is blamed for running away when the BJP cadres were being beaten by Mamata's thugs in the aftermath of VS21. The other three - Bardhaman Purba, Bardhaman Durgapur, and Barrackpur are going to be really tricky. BJP won Durgapur and Barrackpur using the Modi wave of LS19, but it has completely disintegrated in Barrackpur after Arjun Singh left the party, while in Durgapur, Ahluwalia has been a no-show throughout the term. Can anything help the BJP in these three seats? Yes, one thing. BJP should target the Left vote aggressively, pointing out that they are the only ones who can take on Mamata, and the Left is finished. The Left, in Bardhaman especially, has a very good ground level network still, and BJP should aggressively poach on it. The Left still has a lot of votes in the region [1.25-1.5 lakh]. Even getting ~50% of that vote will be a fantastic bonus. It can really mean the difference between victory and defeat. Barrackpur may be hard, but BJP can try to win the other two seats.
Now, let us look at the other seats, one by one.
a) Raiganj - BJP was 1.66 lakhs in deficit in VS21. Especially if the Congress and AITC ally here, it is curtains for the sitting BJP MP [Debasree Chaudhuri - Sukanta Majumdar's aunt]. Raiganj is 50-55% Hindu, so without the Muslim vote splitting between Congress and AITC, it is a very hard seat for BJP. However, this is a seat where the Congress is strong, and if they contest separately, they will take ~1 lakh Muslim votes away from the AITC. So, hope for no alliance.
b) Maldaha Uttar - BJP was 2.76 lakhs in deficit, but has a superb MP, Khagen Murmu [former Leftist]. However, like Raiganj, Maldaha Uttar has only 50-55% Hindus, so unless the Muslim vote splits between the Congress and AITC, it is a very hard seat for the BJP. However, Khagen Murmu will put up a very good fight, thought it may be doomed by demography.
c) Maldaha Dakshin, Jangipur, Baharampur, Murshidabad - forget them all; all of them are Hindu minority.
d) Krishnanagar - Thjis is bow-wow Moitra's seat, and she is quite unpopular. There is talk that Mamata won't even give her ticket this time. BJP was 1.16 lakhs in deficit here, but there are a very large number of refugees here, and if Modi implements CAA, BJP has a very good fighting chance. Without CAA, this is going to be hard, given that it is ~65% Hindu, and Muslim votes will consolidate against BJP.
e) Dum Dum, Barasat - Nothing impossible about these seat, though BJP is ~2 lakhs in deficit, given that Mamata has become very unpopular, and many urban voters are waiting to teach her a lesson. However, one major problem here - BJP has no organisation in the slums, and that may prove fatal for it. However, these seats are 80%+ Hindu, so minority vote won't matter a lot. Further, there are lots of refugees here, so CAA will help considerably.
f) Basirhat, Jayanagar - both of them are refugee heavy, but BJP has no organisation in either. BJP was over 3 lakhs in deficit in both. Doubt that BJP can win them. Also, both are minority heavy [40-45% minority].
g) Mathurapur - this is one seat where BJP was about 2 lakhs in deficit, but this seat is ~75% Hindu and BJP can try to win this, since BJP did win some Panchayats in this region recently. There are two problems here - a) Bhaipo's terror is very strong here. b) CAA. I know Modi will never imprison Bhaipo, but he can clip Bhaipo's wings by putting his goon squad in prison, and thus removing the terror. CAA will definitely help again, since there are tons of refugees here.
h) Diamond Harbour - This is Bhaipo's seat, and this is where his terror is strongest. Further, BJP has no organisation here to speak of [Bhaipo won't allow any organisation to survive]. There was some talk that Sankudeb Panda would contest against Bhaipo, and also Naushad/Abbas Siddiqui would also contest. If Naushad takes away some of the Muslim vote [Muslims are ~35% here], and Bhaipo's terror is removed and CAA is done, BJP may have a chance. Too many ifs.
i) Jadavpur, Kolkata Dakshin - both very urban constituencies, but again, BJP has no organisation in the slums. BJP was 3-3.5 lakhs in deficit in these seats. Unlikely to win either.
j) Kolkata Uttar - BJP was 2.6 lakhs in deficit, but this was due to low turnout due to Covid scare. This is a middle class heavy area, and especially if Sajal Ghosh contests this seat, BJP may have a fighting chance. Not saying that he will win, but he will definitely put up a very good fight.
k) Howrah - BJP was just ~1 lakh in deficit and given that Mamata has antagonised a lot of urban voters, BJP may have a fighting chance. They need to ramp up their organisation, and poach the Left votes [1.16 lakhs] aggressively. Possible, but hard.
l) Uluberia - BJP has lousy organisation here. It has some 30% Muslims, so pray for polarisation. Not likely.
m) Sreerampur, Hooghly - BJP was 1.5-2.2 lakh in deficit in these two seats. Both these are heavily Hindu, and heavily urban, so BJP should a) focus on the Left vote [~1.5 lakh] b) put its organisation in place, and c) replace Locket, who seems to have quarrelled with everyone in BJP in the region. She is the major reason why BJP did horribly in this region in VS21. Replace her with locals and target the left vote, and BJP will have a fighting chance, though victory is uncertain.
n) Jhargram - BJP was 1.86 lakhs in deficit in this region, mainly due to internecine warfare. BJP's organisation seems to have been decimated by infighting here. Victory may be hard.
o) Bolpur - BJP was 1.05 lakh votes in deficit. However, this is one seat where BJP has a chance if a) it focusses on the Left vote, b) if Modi lets loose the CBI/ED on Anubrata Mandal to destroy the AITC terror network. If the AITC terror network is destroyed, BJP stands a very good chance of winning. People are sick of Anubrata's terror.
p) Birbhum - BJP is 2.3 lakhs in deficit. The issues here are the same as Bolpur, except it has worse demography [65% Hindu]. This may be much harder than Bolpur.
To sum up, BJP should have no problem winning 12-14 seats. The rest depend on three things that I have continually mentioned in the post
a) Implement CAA.
b) Destroy the AITC terror network using ED/CBI
c) Target the remaining Left vote. In particular, for this to succeed, BJP should give the impression that it is deadly serious about fighting the AITC, that there is no deal between Modi and Mamata [Modi-Didi setting is a very popular attack against BJP].
If they can do the above, BJP can easily take 25 seats.
Please add another set of inputs regarding KA - the BJP in the assembly election was profoundly unpopular and had no leader. They were facing infighting and severe corruption charges. Allegations of backstabbing by Yaddi and mass shifting of Lingayath votes were also there. Other than Lingayath votes deserting BJP, I do not see any other negative points mentioned above being present in LS2024. Add NM's popularity. Even in places like Bangalore, which may be vital for Siva Kumar, NM's image is powerful.
Concerning the BJP in WB, the picture Guruji above is much better than I thought. One aspect we need to add is this - The present leadership of the BJP state. It is more potent than anything they had before. That will help the BJP get workers, local inputs and tactics, poll day management of things against the street power of AITMC and so on. I think BJP will get minimum LS2019 numbers or- near that number this time also.
Yagnasri wrote: ↑18 Sep 2023 05:44
Please add another set of inputs regarding KA - the BJP in the assembly election was profoundly unpopular and had no leader. They were facing infighting and severe corruption charges. Allegations of backstabbing by Yaddi and mass shifting of Lingayath votes were also there. Other than Lingayath votes deserting BJP, I do not see any other negative points mentioned above being present in LS2024. Add NM's popularity. Even in places like Bangalore, which may be vital for Siva Kumar, NM's image is powerful.
BJP lost 3-5% votes in all their strongholds [north Karnataka, central Karnataka and coastal Karnataka], but not sure this is due to Lingayat votes mass shifting. This is standard for Karnataka - anti-incumbency causes 3-5% votes shifting the other way. As I see, there was no mass shifting of Lingayat votes at all. But your point about Modi being popular and getting back some vote is true, and I have accounted for it by giving BJP ~10% higher votes in Lok Sabha. I don't think Modi will get more than an additional 1 lakh votes in any constituency in Karnataka.
Concerning the BJP in WB, the picture Guruji above is much better than I thought. One aspect we need to add is this - The present leadership of the BJP state. It is more potent than anything they had before. That will help the BJP get workers, local inputs and tactics, poll day management of things against the street power of AITMC and so on. I think BJP will get minimum LS2019 numbers or- near that number this time also.
BJP can get near the LS19 numbers if they do CAA and clamp down on AITC terror network. Especially in the eastern districts, CAA is vital.
What I am really interested in is if anyone can analyse what is happening in Telangana in detail. I will do Telangana numbers also after the VS23 elections, but for now, anyone's predictions for Telangana will be welcome.
Regarding Udayanidhi Stalin's remark about Sanaatana, this may work in TN. They may face no backlash from the voters but this kind of talk will have an impact in the rest of the country.
For every LS MP seat Stalin Sr./Stalin Jr./DMK may win TN with this kind of talk, they will cost the alliance 2x/3x in the rest of the country. Talk of myopia
Who in that unholy dot alliance will pull aside Stalin Sr./Stalin Jr./DMK and ask them to tone down this kind of rhetoric? But again, these nincompoops are equally myopic
About boycotting those 14 anchors, JD(U) & SP have already distanced themselves from that sh*t
even i hope some good Hindu orientated bills are placed. this will make opposition really uncomfortable, as they cannot say NO to it given the amount of hate peddled by I.N.D.I alliance partner DMK and Congress....
la.khan wrote: ↑18 Sep 2023 09:02
Regarding Udayanidhi Stalin's remark about Sanaatana, this may work in TN. They may face no backlash from the voters but this kind of talk will have an impact in the rest of the country.
For every LS MP seat Stalin Sr./Stalin Jr./DMK may win TN with this kind of talk, they will cost the alliance 2x/3x in the rest of the country. Talk of myopia
Who in that unholy dot alliance will pull aside Stalin Sr./Stalin Jr./DMK and ask them to tone down this kind of rhetoric? But again, these nincompoops are equally myopic
About boycotting those 14 anchors, JD(U) & SP have already distanced themselves from that sh*t
You are right. Every such basket case issue that has no local impact but has a significant national impact should become a national issue; then we'll see this inclusive alliance of thieves and commies become exclusive losers in 2024
Shanmukh wrote: ↑18 Sep 2023 06:11
BJP lost 3-5% votes in all their strongholds [north Karnataka, central Karnataka and coastal Karnataka], but not sure this is due to Lingayat votes mass shifting. This is standard for Karnataka - anti-incumbency causes 3-5% votes shifting the other way. As I see, there was no mass shifting of Lingayat votes at all. But your point about Modi being popular and getting back some vote is true, and I have accounted for it by giving BJP ~10% higher votes in Lok Sabha. I don't think Modi will get more than an additional 1 lakh votes in any constituency in Karnataka.
Thanks for the analysis. I understand your points. I have not (yet) delved into the detailed numbers from VS election 2023, but here are my main thoughts in response:
- I don't think that extrapolations from VS 23 to LS 24 are reliable unless placed in context of the current political landscape as well as the previous VS 18 and LS 19.
- BJP pretty much maintained its vote share in VS 23 (36%) from the previous VS 18 (36.4%), and also added almost 1 million votes in VS 23 over the VS 18. If BJP lost 3-5% votes in strongholds, it is important to balance the analysis by looking where the BJP gained, in order to maintain their vote share.
- Note that in VS 18, BJP won 24 seats more than INC, but was behind INC by 0.7M votes overall. I would say the VS 23 defeat was much more about the INC getting the "minority" votes that away from the JDS, and not so much because BJP lost a lot of votes.
- I think your assumption of the LS election "Modi boost" is too conservative. First of all, BJP vote share in LS 19 was 52%, a massive increase of 16% over the already high VS 18 vote share. It got 18M votes, pulling more than 2M votes away from INC and most importantly, 3M votes away from JDS. This time around, I think the Modi wave is strong as ever, and it will be at peak fervor in 2024 due to many scheduled (and possibly surprise) events/actions.
- Even if we assume a "weaker Modi wave" in 2024, the numbers seem very hard for Dotdot alliance to beat. The JDS votes that Modi pulled are now there for the taking due to the BJP-JDS tie-up. Successful vote transfer from JDS to Modi seems highly likely, given the previous LS election (see above) in which Modi pulled a huge percentage (nearing 50%) of the JDS votes even with no tie-up. So, BJP+JDS+Modi factor seems extremely hard to beat unless they do something really foolish.
- As for INC, it has not managed more than 41% vote share on its own in last 20 years of LS elections. In LS 14 they got 9 seats with that 41% vote share. I don't see anything new that will help them get anywhere close to that set number, especially with Modi having proven himself over 9 years and JDS officially on the BJP side now.
- All this is consistent with Modi's 75+% approval rating. Clearly Modi has never got 75% of votes in a LS election, so what is the composition of this approval base ? Of these 75%, about 45-50% will be already existing Modi voters. The other 25-30% are those who are constrained by other party loyalties or those who are swing voters. These "other party loyalists" in Karnataka would be JDS voters and some INC voters. Tying up with JDS has now made it easier for these voters to go ahead and vote for Modi.
- Overall, I think your calculation would be the very conservative lower bound on what BJP+JDS can get in KA. Unless something changes drastically, I personally think they would sweep the state (27-28 seats).
The revadi factor is bound to change more than just a few stupid voter's minds and that cannot be factored into the mix of historical analysis and the extrapolations arising from that because no one knows how.
this time, actual money will get paid out by the dotty alliance and the minorities to consolidate their positions
money that has already come into India via the gold smuggling, drug traffic and weapons trade routes, via the BIF sources
Human traffic into India has picked up and is going exponential.
what is so openly visible in the west is practically invisible here
That paki lady who entered India illegally is still here in greater noida
If the women's reservation bill is going to designate 33% constituencies to women on rotation basis (like it is done for caste reservation right now), then I oppose it. They will be restricting the choice of candidates for the voters.
I want the bill to enforce political parties give 33% of their tickets go to women. Yes, initially they may field women in unwinnable constituencies for checkbox compliance. I'm for equality of opportunity, not for equality of outcome.
srin wrote: ↑19 Sep 2023 07:16
If the women's reservation bill is going to designate 33% constituencies to women on rotation basis (like it is done for caste reservation right now), then I oppose it. They will be restricting the choice of candidates for the voters.
I want the bill to enforce political parties give 33% of their tickets go to women. Yes, initially they may field women in unwinnable constituencies for checkbox compliance. I'm for equality of opportunity, not for equality of outcome.
Well, all said and done, Modi shut off a ton of Raga talking points on the women's reservation bill. It is already done, now he needs to look for another one to whine about
srin wrote: ↑19 Sep 2023 07:16
If the women's reservation bill is going to designate 33% constituencies to women on rotation basis
lol, the current iteration of the world is gynocratic, the sooner one accepts that, the easier it would be to swallow the inevitable scope creeps in the future
srin wrote: ↑19 Sep 2023 07:16
If the women's reservation bill is going to designate 33% constituencies to women on rotation basis (like it is done for caste reservation right now), then I oppose it. They will be restricting the choice of candidates for the voters.
I want the bill to enforce political parties give 33% of their tickets go to women. Yes, initially they may field women in unwinnable constituencies for checkbox compliance. I'm for equality of opportunity, not for equality of outcome.
Well, all said and done, Modi shut off a ton of Raga talking points on the women's reservation bill. It is already done, now he needs to look for another one to whine about
williams ji,
The sad truth is that the only women who will stand from a majority of such seats will be the wives, daughters or close relatives of corrupt politicos.
The shakeout may take place after 2-4 elections which may be the time frame to winnow out the "default" candidates before women candidates who are relatable to their constituencies and are also truly capable...
don't want to end up with the rabid commie, big bindi types and failed durbari journos who will doubtless try and dominate the candidates lists
This initiative may spiral out of democratic control if the BIF/abrahamics backs their favourites to sabotage the results
Shanmukh wrote: ↑18 Sep 2023 06:11
BJP lost 3-5% votes in all their strongholds [north Karnataka, central Karnataka and coastal Karnataka], but not sure this is due to Lingayat votes mass shifting. This is standard for Karnataka - anti-incumbency causes 3-5% votes shifting the other way. As I see, there was no mass shifting of Lingayat votes at all. But your point about Modi being popular and getting back some vote is true, and I have accounted for it by giving BJP ~10% higher votes in Lok Sabha. I don't think Modi will get more than an additional 1 lakh votes in any constituency in Karnataka.
Thanks for the analysis. I understand your points. I have not (yet) delved into the detailed numbers from VS election 2023, but here are my main thoughts in response:
- I don't think that extrapolations from VS 23 to LS 24 are reliable unless placed in context of the current political landscape as well as the previous VS 18 and LS 19.
- BJP pretty much maintained its vote share in VS 23 (36%) from the previous VS 18 (36.4%), and also added almost 1 million votes in VS 23 over the VS 18. If BJP lost 3-5% votes in strongholds, it is important to balance the analysis by looking where the BJP gained, in order to maintain their vote share.
- Note that in VS 18, BJP won 24 seats more than INC, but was behind INC by 0.7M votes overall. I would say the VS 23 defeat was much more about the INC getting the "minority" votes that away from the JDS, and not so much because BJP lost a lot of votes.
- I think your assumption of the LS election "Modi boost" is too conservative. First of all, BJP vote share in LS 19 was 52%, a massive increase of 16% over the already high VS 18 vote share. It got 18M votes, pulling more than 2M votes away from INC and most importantly, 3M votes away from JDS. This time around, I think the Modi wave is strong as ever, and it will be at peak fervor in 2024 due to many scheduled (and possibly surprise) events/actions.
- Even if we assume a "weaker Modi wave" in 2024, the numbers seem very hard for Dotdot alliance to beat. The JDS votes that Modi pulled are now there for the taking due to the BJP-JDS tie-up. Successful vote transfer from JDS to Modi seems highly likely, given the previous LS election (see above) in which Modi pulled a huge percentage (nearing 50%) of the JDS votes even with no tie-up. So, BJP+JDS+Modi factor seems extremely hard to beat unless they do something really foolish.
- As for INC, it has not managed more than 41% vote share on its own in last 20 years of LS elections. In LS 14 they got 9 seats with that 41% vote share. I don't see anything new that will help them get anywhere close to that set number, especially with Modi having proven himself over 9 years and JDS officially on the BJP side now.
- All this is consistent with Modi's 75+% approval rating. Clearly Modi has never got 75% of votes in a LS election, so what is the composition of this approval base ? Of these 75%, about 45-50% will be already existing Modi voters. The other 25-30% are those who are constrained by other party loyalties or those who are swing voters. These "other party loyalists" in Karnataka would be JDS voters and some INC voters. Tying up with JDS has now made it easier for these voters to go ahead and vote for Modi.
- Overall, I think your calculation would be the very conservative lower bound on what BJP+JDS can get in KA. Unless something changes drastically, I personally think they would sweep the state (27-28 seats).
Modiji's morning consult rating tracks only those educated urban Indian population with access to internet .
srin wrote: ↑19 Sep 2023 07:16
If the women's reservation bill is going to designate 33% constituencies to women on rotation basis (like it is done for caste reservation right now), then I oppose it. They will be restricting the choice of candidates for the voters.
I want the bill to enforce political parties give 33% of their tickets go to women. Yes, initially they may field women in unwinnable constituencies for checkbox compliance. I'm for equality of opportunity, not for equality of outcome.
Yes, your idea is the way to go. No to 33% of LS constituencies designated as reserved for women. Yes to enforcing 33% of a party contestants have to be women.
srin wrote: ↑19 Sep 2023 07:16
If the women's reservation bill is going to designate 33% constituencies to women on rotation basis (like it is done for caste reservation right now), then I oppose it. They will be restricting the choice of candidates for the voters.
I want the bill to enforce political parties give 33% of their tickets go to women. Yes, initially they may field women in unwinnable constituencies for checkbox compliance. I'm for equality of opportunity, not for equality of outcome.
Yes, your idea is the way to go. No to 33% of LS constituencies designated as reserved for women. Yes to enforcing 33% of a party contestants have to be women.
Lousy idea -
So if RJD has to fight, Laloo will have male caate on all seats of Bihar (the one that can fight/win) and have all women candidates in ay kerala, meeting its women quota. Now just for the sake of argument, let's say BJP is in fight for all seats in India (unlike it is not in fight in many southern state). It will be forced to choose 33% women candidate in Bihar (all else being equal), who may not be the best candidate to win.
Against, say 33% of the seats are reserved. Suddenly Hyderabad is reserved for women, and Owaisi son either has to go gender change or his sister/wife/ other female members become important. Imagine, Wayanad and Amethi both are women reserved,appu shree will really get a gender change.
In 40 seats of Bihar, RJD+ JDS cannot find 13 women candidates. They have only so many female family member. Imagine against them is from BJP ticket, again an yadav women, but maybe a retired or ex IAS/IPS or some similarly able lady. Who will win? RJD and JDS and MNS and TRS and DMK ...can also similarly choose able lady candidates, but their cadres, party members, family members may not support them. Cong will do fine as will TMC.
Agree Manishji. Savarkarjis command over language and clarity of thought is unparalleled. This song and Saagara praan talmallay are so full of emotion!
The songs are not well known outside Maharashtra. For them to be played by the band means a conscious decision was made…
la.khan wrote: ↑18 Sep 2023 09:02
Regarding Udayanidhi Stalin's remark about Sanaatana, this may work in TN. They may face no backlash from the voters but this kind of talk will have an impact in the rest of the country.
For every LS MP seat Stalin Sr./Stalin Jr./DMK may win TN with this kind of talk, they will cost the alliance 2x/3x in the rest of the country. Talk of myopia
Who in that unholy dot alliance will pull aside Stalin Sr./Stalin Jr./DMK and ask them to tone down this kind of rhetoric? But again, these nincompoops are equally myopic
About boycotting those 14 anchors, JD(U) & SP have already distanced themselves from that sh*t
la.khan ji,
stalin is concerned only with his state and the numbers it will produce for him
He needs numbers to fulfill his wish of becoming the deputy PM, therefore this ploy is to weaken the congis and reduce their numbers
He will not concede more than just a few seats to the congis in TN
jagan is working on the same logic in AP minus the deputy PM agenda
the 14 anchors hit job is a warning.The message is "if they behave, they will be taken back into the fold". The media owners have been tasked to reform them
the congis need to control the media before the run up to 2024
If anyone has noticed, these congis haven't touched even a single regional channel or any of the local language anchors.
this strategy for the mainstream media control is being directed by the BIF as most media channels in the national mainstream space have off shore padre ownership in some form or the other
the notable exception is republic channel of arnab gosami, where rajiv chandrashekar, the union minister has a considerable stake
BTW, the JD(U) & SP are playing a tactical game. They can easily bring pressure on these channels through their dotty alliance "partners"
