Why We Need Pokhran-3

[sudeepj]

Amber G presumes much too much. The public explanation of the test is, it was with radio-isotopes to detect others testing. Its clear, that this was some kind of a 'LaRa' experiment and trying to establish a baseline for their airborne platforms to detect testing of explosive lenses with Lanthanum type radio-isotopes. But this is only true if you take the US statement at its face value, and it wasnt a cover to test new types of explosive lenses, with new compositions etc. E.g. the invention of CL-20 was too late to be used in any nukes and this may be a test of a new fast-explosive, that will amount to new more compact designs.

At some point, India must test again, a full power weapon. Lately, US has been treating Hindus as enemies. They want to use Indian state power, without the unwashed Hinduness making itself seen or heard.

[Amber G.]

Amber G presumes much too much. ..

Boss, all I have done is to point out some basics ..Except for a dorky media (and equally clueless followers)..anyone with rudimentary commonsense will be able to see the difference between a "nuclear" test and a test happened at a "nuclear site".. or difference between a radio isotope and u235 fission../sigh/ (Hint: Other government sources / scientists/ reputable people would have something to say if it was indeed anywhere as such seriousness..)

Meanwhile in this dhaga Bold clueless headlines

US Conducts Nuclear Test in Nevada Hours After Russian Move to Revoke Global Test Ban

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

US Nuclear Test Raises Concerns of New Arms Race With Russia

At some point, India must test again, a full power weapon...

Really??? I am glad that India's present government (which listens to scientists) is mature.
---

There are about 12,000 posts..(Including hundreds from me )...
Seriously, there is lot of gyan there.(along with lot of other stuff)..lot of items are given very good treatment/explained with basic physics.

Exactly. Its a great learning resource. It is also the encapsulated history of BR forums …

I was a silent observer in learning mode for most of it as that is not my field.

Indeed it's a great learning resource!
---
Meanwhile :IAEA Chief Rafaelmgrossi meets EAM Jaishankar & call on PM Modi in Delhi

[SBajwa]

Not Pokhran. One of the learnings from Pokhran 2 was that the test range cannot support higher yields.

So where can a new test range be established?

Some Remote island in Arabian sea or Bay of Bengal sea without any living things.

[sudeepj]

I agree, all you have done is to point out basics. Why pretend that a test that can verify new geometries for explosive lenses is not a nuclear test or unrelated to developing new more compact/more powerful nuclear weapons? Given what is known already about the mechanical and fission related properties of Plutonium, this test amounts to 90% of whats needed to develop a new nuclear weapon by the West.

The world has entered an era of great power conflict. These conflicts will be decided and aggression deterred based on the level of nuclear violence that one power can inflict on the other. Not being prepared is criminal.

Even if one takes DRDO claims at face value - the weapon tested was a downrated version of a 100KT weapon, and the design can easily be scaled up to 200KT, larger MT weapons will need a different design. Probably a different and more powerful primary will be needed. And if one intends to optimize this weapon design and put it on a ballistic missile (let alone a MIRV), there is no option but to test it.

The test should be done by the next govt. and certainly by the govt. after that. One cant test one weapon at one time with uncertain success (controversy within the Indian scientific establishment) and claim to have reached a position of complete success. You claim to be a scientist so you do know that the yield of these weapons is probabilistic. What is the probability that the yield you claim to have gotten was just by chance and the weapon is just as likely to perform at a yield 50% less than the desired yield?

Based on these reasons, and the hostility shown by the west towards Hindus, India has no option but to test again at a time convenient to us, a weapon at full power that is a two or three stage design with a yield in MegaTonne range.

[sanman]

I agree, all you have done is to point out basics. Why pretend that a test that can verify new geometries for explosive lenses is not a nuclear test or unrelated to developing new more compact/more powerful nuclear weapons? Given what is known already about the mechanical and fission related properties of Plutonium, this test amounts to 90% of whats needed to develop a new nuclear weapon by the West.

The world has entered an era of great power conflict. These conflicts will be decided and aggression deterred based on the level of nuclear violence that one power can inflict on the other. Not being prepared is criminal.

Even if one takes DRDO claims at face value - the weapon tested was a downrated version of a 100KT weapon, and the design can easily be scaled up to 200KT, larger MT weapons will need a different design. Probably a different and more powerful primary will be needed. And if one intends to optimize this weapon design and put it on a ballistic missile (let alone a MIRV), there is no option but to test it.

The test should be done by the next govt. and certainly by the govt. after that. One cant test one weapon at one time with uncertain success (controversy within the Indian scientific establishment) and claim to have reached a position of complete success. You claim to be a scientist so you do know that the yield of these weapons is probabilistic. What is the probability that the yield you claim to have gotten was just by chance and the weapon is just as likely to perform at a yield 50% less than the desired yield?

Based on these reasons, and the hostility shown by the west towards Hindus, India has no option but to test again at a time convenient to us, a weapon at full power that is a two or three stage design with a yield in MegaTonne range.

Hear, hear!

[KL Dubey]

Amber G, thanks for the sanity. This thread is frankly hilarious. Premature orgasm syndrome.

There was no nuclear test. I see no point in further response, it is futile.

Bharat sarkar will test as and when it feels strategic or tactical need to do so.

[sanman]

Amber G, thanks for the sanity. This thread is frankly hilarious. Premature orgasm syndrome.

There was no nuclear test. I see no point in further response, it is futile.

Bharat sarkar will test as and when it feels strategic or tactical need to do so.

In other words, after we get sucker-punched.

[sudeepj]

Pretending that one controversial 50KT test of a device scalable to 200KT is sufficient to deter Mega Ton weapons in the hands of lunatics, at a time when events are rapidly spiraling out of all control is criminal stupidity. Its not Sanity.

Pretending that accuracy makes up for lower yields means you are going for a counter force strategy. Even if I were to grant that this makes sense against Pakistan (in reality it does not), it makes absolutely no sense against China!

We needed larger weapons yesterday.

[Pratyush]

Pretending that one controversial 50KT test of a device scalable to 200KT is sufficient to deter Mega Ton weapons in the hands of lunatics, at a time when events are rapidly spiraling out of all control is criminal stupidity.
Snip...

I have not understood this rational in the deterrence thread. Nor do I understand this rational as articulated in this thread.

Because, if the enemy is not a rational actor. Then he is not going to deterred by the yield of your weapons to begin with. Whatever that yield may be.

If you're enemy is a rational actor. Then he may decide what is the level of damage that is acceptable to him. You have to have the ability to go beyond that threshold.

In that case what you need is a large numbers of medium yield devices. Because a very high yield device is an extremely inefficient use of the nuclear weapon.

As the blast propagation is computed through a mathematical formula. And that IIRC, is the cube root of the yield per mile from the impact point. People more knowledgeable than me can provide the actual formula

IOW, the damage potential of 10 x 200 kt bombs on the enemy city is higher. When compared to the damage potential to the enemy city of a single 20 Mt bomb.

[sanman]

I have not understood this rational in the deterrence thread. Nor do I understand this rational as articulated in this thread.

Because, if the enemy is not a rational actor. Then he is not going to deterred by the yield of your weapons to begin with. Whatever that yield may be.

If you're enemy is a rational actor. Then he may decide what is the level of damage that is acceptable to him. You have to have the ability to go beyond that threshold.

In that case what you need is a large numbers of medium yield devices. Because a very high yield device is an extremely inefficient use of the nuclear weapon.

As the blast propagation is computed through a mathematical formula. And that IIRC, is the cube root of the yield per mile from the impact point. People more knowledgeable than me can provide the actual formula

IOW, the damage potential of 10 x 200 kt bombs on the enemy city is higher. When compared to the damage potential to the enemy city of a single 20 Mt bomb.

High yield devices are useful for big targets, medium yield for medium targets, low yield for smaller targets, etc.

Look at China's attempt to merge 3 major cities into one big triangular mega-city region. That would require a very high-yield device for sure.

High yield devices are an assurance of destructive technical capability, so your opponent doesn't think they can take some acceptable losses. You have to make their threat of losses unacceptable to them.

[sanman]

With Iran War looming on the immediate time-horizon, and Taiwan War looming on the time-horizon immediately beyond that, I can't think of a time when it's more favourable for India to do Pokhran-3. The Americans are not in the strongest position to apply coercion against us -- and let's be clear, they are the main constrainers against our ability to develop more robust strategic deterrence. Meanwhile, we need to shore up our defenses against the growing threat of the Chinese Colossus, and the returning threat of the Pak backstabber. This time they could work together to jointly suckerpunch us like never before.

Waiting for us to have $5T economy isn't going to work, because China+Pak aren't going to wait for that, and are going to hit us before then.

We need to take the good opportunity while it's there, instead of waiting for some ideal perfect moment that likely may not come.
"Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good"

[williams]

With Iran War looming on the immediate time-horizon, and Taiwan War looming on the time-horizon immediately beyond that, I can't think of a time when it's more favourable for India to do Pokhran-3. The Americans are not in the strongest position to apply coercion against us -- and let's be clear, they are the main constrainers against our ability to develop more robust strategic deterrence. Meanwhile, we need to shore up our defenses against the growing threat of the Chinese Colossus, and the returning threat of the Pak backstabber. This time they could work together to jointly suckerpunch us like never before.

Waiting for us to have $5T economy isn't going to work, because China+Pak aren't going to wait for that, and are going to hit us before then.

We need to take the good opportunity while it's there, instead of waiting for some ideal perfect moment that likely may not come.
"Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good"

Sanman Ji, I need to understand what you mean by China and Pakistan are not going to wait. What are you expecting them to do? Start a war? Initiate a significant terrorist attack followed by a war? Initiate a dirty bomb attack? I want to understand how any of these can be avoided if we prove we have a megaton weapon by testing it. Are you assuming even our fission weapons are duds?

If India tests today, we will face sanctions no matter how weak or strong the US + the West are today. That means no engines for our Tejas program. There is no cooperation on the space front and a whole lot of non-cooperation on the military and economic front. We can justify all that if China and Pakistan are preparing for a large-scale attack on the borders with nukes on alert. We have one guy with the economy tanking and trying to sneak in a few pigs across the border and another one firing its defense minister for non-performance on many fronts, including Tibet. We have full deployment on both sides to thwart any pin prick these guys can create in the border. There is no indication these guys are going to go crazy and attack India; that will escalate into a nuclear war.

That said, there is no indication that India has frozen its nuclear assets or weapons development. I understand the scientific need to test more. But I am not clear about the geopolitical argument for testing it now and accepting the cost for it today.

[sanman]

Sanman Ji, I need to understand what you mean by China and Pakistan are not going to wait. What are you expecting them to do? Start a war? Initiate a significant terrorist attack followed by a war? Initiate a dirty bomb attack? I want to understand how any of these can be avoided if we prove we have a megaton weapon by testing it. Are you assuming even our fission weapons are duds?

We need to extend the range of our deterrent in both directions: we need multi-megaton nukes that will leave no doubt in the minds of adventurist CCP leaders that we can completely obliterate them, no matter how deeply their tunnels and bunkers are dug underneath Beijing, etc. We also need the tinier low-level tactical mini-nukes that can overcome Chinese tactical superiority on the ground and in the air. Pakistan used nukes as a cheaper economical defense against us, and we need to make use of the same approach against China+Pak. We also need to get rid of our No-First-Use policy in order to raise the burden of conflict escalation on China+Pak.

If India tests today, we will face sanctions no matter how weak or strong the US + the West are today.

Sanctions and abrogation of ties go both ways. They will lose out too, and will be cutting themselves off from India's help in countering China, thus handing China a big advantage they can't afford. That LECISMOA thing also helps them, especially with securing Persian Gulf, where the threat of war with Iran is looming perilously close (it could happen next week even)

In my opinion, they can't afford to go on false tangents against non-genuine threats like us, while leaving the way open for genuine rogue actors like China, Pak, Iran, North Korea, etc to run amok. If the West foolishly do that, then they will reap the ugly consequences from those genuine rogue actors, and will only rue it. If the West are wise in picking their battles, they will not choose to waste their effort doing battle with us rather than with those who are genuinely dangerous.

That means no engines for our Tejas program. There is no cooperation on the space front and a whole lot of non-cooperation on the military and economic front. We can justify all that if China and Pakistan are preparing for a large-scale attack on the borders with nukes on alert. We have one guy with the economy tanking and trying to sneak in a few pigs across the border and another one firing its defense minister for non-performance on many fronts, including Tibet. We have full deployment on both sides to thwart any pin prick these guys can create in the border.

"For want of a nail, the kingdom was lost" -- or for want of turbine blades.
The land that invented Wootz steel is so mentally and technologically handicapped in the current era, that it has to beg on hands and knees for nails and blades, all for want of ability to make its own. Apparently, our mental skills are merely limited to tapping on plastic keyboards manufactured and imported from abroad.

There is no indication these guys are going to go crazy and attack India; that will escalate into a nuclear war.

There was no indication that Israel was going to be attacked by its enemies. But it's happened, and it's changed the global landscape overnight.
There was no indication that USA was going to be attacked on 9/11, but it happened and it changed the global landscape for the next couple of decades.

That said, there is no indication that India has frozen its nuclear assets or weapons development. I understand the scientific need to test more. But I am not clear about the geopolitical argument for testing it now and accepting the cost for it today.

We need to make maximum preparations in advance for when we do test, so that we can get most bang-for-the-buck, and make the most technological & strategic gains from such testing, thereby exploiting any window of opportunity to its fullest.

[sudeepj]

Pretending that one controversial 50KT test of a device scalable to 200KT is sufficient to deter Mega Ton weapons in the hands of lunatics, at a time when events are rapidly spiraling out of all control is criminal stupidity.
Snip...

I have not understood this rational in the deterrence thread. Nor do I understand this rational as articulated in this thread.

Because, if the enemy is not a rational actor. Then he is not going to deterred by the yield of your weapons to begin with. Whatever that yield may be.

If you're enemy is a rational actor. Then he may decide what is the level of damage that is acceptable to him. You have to have the ability to go beyond that threshold.

In that case what you need is a large numbers of medium yield devices. Because a very high yield device is an extremely inefficient use of the nuclear weapon.

As the blast propagation is computed through a mathematical formula. And that IIRC, is the cube root of the yield per mile from the impact point. People more knowledgeable than me can provide the actual formula

IOW, the damage potential of 10 x 200 kt bombs on the enemy city is higher. When compared to the damage potential to the enemy city of a single 20 Mt bomb.

You are imposing your model of rationality on the enemy. From a Hindu model of rationality, the partition itself did not make sense! Neither did any of their later activities of sponsoring jihad in India, or Khalistani terrorism. From what model of reason can a Pulwama attack make sense? You are attacking a country that has several times your population, at least three times your mil power, and 10 time the GDP!! From what angle did Kargil make sense? From a Jihadi logic point of view, if damage to you exceeds damage to them, and they live to fight another day, these are sufficient conditions for an attack to be a GO! Simply denying you a victory can be construed as a victory, no matter the cost to them. E.g. the Israeli - Hezbolla war when IDF flattened half of Lebanon, but even within Israel, this conflict is regarded as a loss! The recent braying of Nawaz Sharif's son in law and Maryam Nawaz's husband about their compact nukes comes to the mind. What rational leader will talk like that?

From this model of 'Jihadi reason', if PakMil has thermonukes and you dont, a nuclear attack on India is a go! If they can wipe out 80% of Indians, and the Indian counter strike wipes out 50% of Paks, they will attack and fancy their chances in the subsequent horse borne fighting! In fact, the more India makes progress and leaves Pak behind, the more likely this attack becomes. Similar logic was outlined by Mao himself, and as you may know his thought is popular again in China.

Because a very high yield device is an extremely inefficient use of the nuclear weapon.

I am sorry, but this is horseshit. Yes, a lot of the yield goes into the atmosphere, but most of the yield comes from **fissionable** isotopes, i.e. from the U238 (or thorium) tamper case around the secondary, not precious fissile material that you have to enrich or reprocess! And the fissile material in the so called 'spark plug' at the center of the secondary is nearly completely fissioned. A thermonuke generates a lot of energy from comparatively little fissile material, and generates a lot of energy from a very small volume. So even if this energy is 'wasted' into the atmosphere, it doesnt really matter so much because you are generating a lot of it, from very little material, in the first place.

The trend of the weapons is back in the direction of pure genocidal Mega Tonnage, with the latest Russian deployment of the 100MT nuclear torpedo. The days of strategic deescalation are over. We need to read this writing on the wall, or else be prepared to be pushed around like little boys back in the cold war days. A few million Hindus, and a few hundred thousand Indians died in these cold war era conflicts.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... ying-33661

the damage potential of 10 x 200 kt bombs on the enemy city is higher

1. Volumetrically, a 3MT weapons will be smaller than 10x200KT weapons.
2. It will use far less Pu239 and U235 compared to 10x200KT weapons.
3. For the same amount of industrial effort, you may end up with 3 or 4 3MT weapons, compared to 10x200KT weapons, which can truly finish off a city and its surroundings.
4. The entire case rests on tested and deployed MIRVd 200KT weapons. As far as anyone can tell, these are not available.
5. Ergo, we will have to test even these theoretical 200KT weapons in future. At that time, we may as well go the whole hog and test a MT device.

The West wont tolerate being challenged by 'Asiatics' and 'Orientals' and will use Islamists in Turkey and Pak to target and pressure anyone who doesnt bend the knee. You can see this ramping up with their collective sheltering of Khalistanis and IAMC type organizations to target Hindus. If we dont make all round progress on security issues, for Hindus, the writing is on the wall.

[sudeepj]

With Iran War looming on the immediate time-horizon, and Taiwan War looming on the time-horizon immediately beyond that, I can't think of a time when it's more favourable for India to do Pokhran-3. The Americans are not in the strongest position to apply coercion against us -- and let's be clear, they are the main constrainers against our ability to develop more robust strategic deterrence. Meanwhile, we need to shore up our defenses against the growing threat of the Chinese Colossus, and the returning threat of the Pak backstabber. This time they could work together to jointly suckerpunch us like never before.

Waiting for us to have $5T economy isn't going to work, because China+Pak aren't going to wait for that, and are going to hit us before then.

We need to take the good opportunity while it's there, instead of waiting for some ideal perfect moment that likely may not come.
"Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good"

Sanman Ji, I need to understand what you mean by China and Pakistan are not going to wait. What are you expecting them to do? Start a war? Initiate a significant terrorist attack followed by a war? Initiate a dirty bomb attack? I want to understand how any of these can be avoided if we prove we have a megaton weapon by testing it. Are you assuming even our fission weapons are duds?

India is unable to commit a genocide on Pakistan (or any other country) today with its boosted fission weapons. If Pak can exchange { Pindi, Islamabad, Karachi } for {Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Amdavad, ..} they will be quite happy to do so. Their masters sitting in Washington DC, Ankara, and Beijing will also be quite happy to do so and be rid of this pesky country that does not really believe in war and wants independence. The only way to deter such a Pak attack is to have weapons, that can kill every last Pakistani alive. We do not have these weapons today and it appears that we have no plans to acquire them either. A fission weapon that takes out several city blocks is a nothingburger in longer terms of decades. People walked into Hiroshima and Nagasaki just a few days after the initial attacks and these cities are thriving today. Had they been hit by a thermonuke, its likely that the cities would have been taken over by the jungle by now and noone would ever live there again for tens of decades.

If India tests today, we will face sanctions no matter how weak or strong the US + the West are today. That means no engines for our Tejas program. There is no cooperation on the space front and a whole lot of non-cooperation on the military and economic front. We can justify all that if China and Pakistan are preparing for a large-scale attack on the borders with nukes on alert. We have one guy with the economy tanking and trying to sneak in a few pigs across the border and another one firing its defense minister for non-performance on many fronts, including Tibet. We have full deployment on both sides to thwart any pin prick these guys can create in the border. There is no indication these guys are going to go crazy and attack India; that will escalate into a nuclear war.

1. No one is saying that we test *today*. We are just saying, we need these weapons and let's start preparing to get them.
2. I see the same arrogance that Israelis had prior to 7/10 in your comment. I hope we learn our lesson at the lowest cost possible.

[titash]

sudeepj-ji,

Would one not avoid such a doomsday scenario by simply letting it be known to the OIC that the use of a Nuke / Thermonuke against any Indian city will lead to the entire Muslim world taking hits, not just the Pakis?

Would the Pakis take such a drastic step if their "tera mera rishta kya..." birathers knew that assured retaliation would come down upon Ankara, Doha, Tehran, Kuwait City, Riyadh, The 2 mosque cities, etc.

Diplomacy can achieve much more than we think - no? MBS and MBZ for example have proven themselves to be perfectly rational actors.

[Vayutuvan]

@titash ji, Does India have such a policy publicly stated? We do have NFU. We also have a policy (not publicly stated but hinted at) that if Pakistan uses nukes on India, we will hit China as they, the Chinese, gifted Paxis the nukes and the delivery platforms, i.e. missiles. OTOH, Paxis might use F16s but India doesn't have the wherewithall to hit back at massa.

[sanman]

sudeepj-ji,

Would one not avoid such a doomsday scenario by simply letting it be known to the OIC that the use of a Nuke / Thermonuke against any Indian city will lead to the entire Muslim world taking hits, not just the Pakis?

Would the Pakis take such a drastic step if their "tera mera rishta kya..." birathers knew that assured retaliation would come down upon Ankara, Doha, Tehran, Kuwait City, Riyadh, The 2 mosque cities, etc.

I don't think that'll work, even though I do see that Arab/Muslim world have supported Pak in all Indo-Pak wars. That can be yet another reason for us to support Israel.

Diplomacy can achieve much more than we think - no? MBS and MBZ for example have proven themselves to be perfectly rational actors.

We're supposed to be courting MBS for Indo-MidEast-European Economic corridor. The ones we aren't courting are the irrational ones who mostly don't care about verbal threats anyway.

But I'd agree that big-ticket diplomacy can work -- things like this Indo-MidEast-European Economic Corridor.
We're one of the few international actors big enough to offer such big-ticket deals, which have the potential to re-shape the region.

But China-Pak-Iran are big enough to be big spoilers against our big-ticket deals. That's what's happened with this Hamas attack, which was meant to sabotage Israeli-Saudi peace agreement (the lynchpin for Indo-MidEast-European Economic Corridor)

We need to engage with the Saudis non-stop, to try and get them back toward peace with Israel, which is necessary for the economic corridor.

And if we can't get that, then we need to go for Pokhran-3 as our fallback, so that we don't leave empty-handed.

[sudeepj]

@titash ji, Does India have such a policy publicly stated? We do have NFU. We also have a policy (not publicly stated but hinted at) that if Pakistan uses nukes on India, we will hit China as they, the Chinese, gifted Paxis the nukes and the delivery platforms, i.e. missiles. OTOH, Paxis might use F16s but India doesn't have the wherewithall to hit back at massa.

The idea that we will hit the sponsors of Pak (i.e. China) was explicitly denied by a former Indian navy strategic forces commander in his talk at Lawrence Livermore. The only reason for this silly policy is because we dont have the megatonnage. So every SOB from Beijing to Ankara to Ottawa thinks arming Pak to kill Hindus, or promoting Khalistanis, or ... is an easy way to keep India down.

We need to test a 3 MT device at least a couple of times, and declare that we will definitely hit Pak sponsors if Pak hits us.

*Finally, the timing of the test, and the sequencing of geopolitical scenarios that need to play out is tricky. And I dont want to speculate about it on an open board. But the idea that we need to test, a really big city buster, is to me self evident.

[sudeepj]

sudeepj-ji,

Would one not avoid such a doomsday scenario by simply letting it be known to the OIC that the use of a Nuke / Thermonuke against any Indian city will lead to the entire Muslim world taking hits, not just the Pakis?

Would the Pakis take such a drastic step if their "tera mera rishta kya..." birathers knew that assured retaliation would come down upon Ankara, Doha, Tehran, Kuwait City, Riyadh, The 2 mosque cities, etc.

Diplomacy can achieve much more than we think - no? MBS and MBZ for example have proven themselves to be perfectly rational actors.

Our relations with MBS and MBZ are excellent. Its with the Turkic block, China, and Qatar based Centcom where relations are bad. Its just our bad luck that we are stuck with an irrational (rather a differently rational) adversary in Pak. The rest of the rational world is quite happy to use the enemies irrationality to attack us and keep us tied down.

[Pratyush]

Our relations with MBS and MBZ are excellent. Its with the Turkic block, China, and Qatar based Centcom where relations are bad. Its just our bad luck that we are stuck with an irrational (rather a differently rational) adversary in Pak. The rest of the rational world is quite happy to use the enemies irrationality to attack us and keep us tied down.

If one accepts your argument in toto.

How will a theoretical 5 Mt device help, when a theoretical 200 kt device doesn't?

[titash]

@titash ji, Does India have such a policy publicly stated? We do have NFU. We also have a policy (not publicly stated but hinted at) that if Pakistan uses nukes on India, we will hit China as they, the Chinese, gifted Paxis the nukes and the delivery platforms, i.e. missiles. OTOH, Paxis might use F16s but India doesn't have the wherewithall to hit back at massa.

Vayutuvan-ji,

Such policies should never be publicly stated. A quiet word from Jaishankar to Al-Tatti will do.

The idea is not to convey a direct threat to the ummah, but rather to drive home a very reasonable (IMHO) point that "Indian public opinion will be thirsting for comprehensive revenge after a nuke strike; why get into this jhamela...instead why don't you OIC boyz make sure the Pakis don't start anything..."

I'd stay clear of China and Massa - nothing to be gained by antagonizing multiple non-ummah superpowers. To be fair, these 2 don't represent an existential threat to India via centuries of ingrained Hinduphobia

[titash]

The idea that we will hit the sponsors of Pak (i.e. China) was explicitly denied by a former Indian navy strategic forces commander in his talk at Lawrence Livermore. The only reason for this silly policy is because we dont have the megatonnage. So every SOB from Beijing to Ankara to Ottawa thinks arming Pak to kill Hindus, or promoting Khalistanis, or ... is an easy way to keep India down.

We need to test a 3 MT device at least a couple of times, and declare that we will definitely hit Pak sponsors if Pak hits us.

*Finally, the timing of the test, and the sequencing of geopolitical scenarios that need to play out is tricky. And I dont want to speculate about it on an open board. But the idea that we need to test, a really big city buster, is to me self evident.

I assure you Sirjee that once the first nuke hits, and the public are $hit scared and thirsting for revenge, all gentlemanly policies such as NFU / no-hitting sponsors & funders, secularism, etc. will all go out of the window

At that point, the exact KT or MT score doesn't count. The Agnis will fly and people will die. Just like they did in Hiroshima / Nagasaki. Then their public will be $hit scared and thirsting for revenge. It ends in Armageddon for Asia and a climate disaster for the rest of the world.

Much easier and more reasonable (IMHO) to privately convey the message that non-Pakis will be hit on day 2 if the Pakis fly their nukes on day 1. That in itself will keep people honest

[titash]

Our relations with MBS and MBZ are excellent. Its with the Turkic block, China, and Qatar based Centcom where relations are bad. Its just our bad luck that we are stuck with an irrational (rather a differently rational) adversary in Pak. The rest of the rational world is quite happy to use the enemies irrationality to attack us and keep us tied down.

Friendships are never static in international relations, and one may find the situation reversed in under 25 years.

The important thing is we can't cede the irrationality card and let the Pakis be the exclusive players.

It always boggles my mind why the media thinks that Paki nukes are an effective deterrent against India, but that Indian nukes are nowhere in the picture when it comes to China. The ignorance and/or hypocrisy is quite overt.

You are tied down because you choose to be tied down. Have a conversation with the ummah players about non-Paki retaliation to Paki first strikes, and everyone else will get the message. But do it privately and officially deny it, else the BBC/TheWire will have a field day

[sudeepj]

Our relations with MBS and MBZ are excellent. Its with the Turkic block, China, and Qatar based Centcom where relations are bad. Its just our bad luck that we are stuck with an irrational (rather a differently rational) adversary in Pak. The rest of the rational world is quite happy to use the enemies irrationality to attack us and keep us tied down.

If one accepts your argument in toto.

How will a theoretical 5 Mt device help, when a theoretical 200 kt device doesn't?

1. Where is this 200KT device that you speak of? Has it ever been tested?
2. Our assured retaliation consists of about 8 tubes worth of single warhead IRBMs right now, hopefully will go up to 24 in the next 5-6 years. We simply do not have the rockets to throw the number of 200KT warheads needed to kill a large city like Beijing, let alone a large country.
3. Pakistan will not be deterred by a proportionate or even a disproportionate loss, as long as they can deny India what India seeks. This may be a clean victory, or just being left alone to develop and get richer. This is the Islamist mindset. The only thing that will deter Paks is a comprehensive loss followed by occupation or a complete depopulation of their country, while India also keeps the Islamist hordes out for repopulating the country. (The Pak Ashraf class will actually see a depopulation of the ajlaaf locals followed by a repopulation by Turks or Arabs or Iranians as a net good! Even desirable!)
4. Boosted devices, smaller thermonukes sufficient to deter direct confrontation with rational powers like US/UK/China. But not their cats paw in Pak.
5. If someone puts Pak up to mischief, we will barely have enough MTonnage to deal with Pak, let alone their sponsors, who do have MT devices and hitting them will invite a truly devastating/depopulating response, while we will only be able to tickle them.

Finally, the war is here now. India can potentially be pulled into the conflict whether we are ready or not. We dont have the time it would take for the mythical 'three stage nuclear program' or the SSBN program to bear fruit in 2050. What can we do to deter attacks on us in the next 2-10 years? The quickest way is to get the same bigger weapon that the enemy has.

Every large country will be able to absorb a 100-200KT weapon on a few of its major cities. Sure, it will be extremely painful, but the metros will recover in 5-10 years. It is the prospect of recovering from a MT weapon that is an impossibility. There just wont be enough people or economic activity left.

To think that a large country embarked on a total war will be deterred by the prospect of a single (or even a few) 100KT weapons on one or two of its cities is laughable. Countries have lost 20% of their total populations in earlier large conflicts while committing ever greater resources to win. This is the scenario we are entering today. Pax-Americana is over and deterrence theories worked out in the pleasant or coercive shadow of the american giant wont work anymore.

I have explained it like I would to a 10 year old. If you still cant understand it, thats your problem, not mine. There is a reason why every nuclear power went the MT route. Except India, where cowardly thinkers refuse to do what is necessary, and spin elaborate logic to defend their cowardice and inertia.

[Rupesh]

Completely agree Sudeepj. We have to start preparing to develop MT devices. Our only reliable weapon now is the fission device. It will still take a while and by the time a MT device is ready for testing we will be a 8-10 trillion economy. At that time sanctions on India will not be an option.

[Anant]

I agree with the Mt devices. But where would you test them? I thought I remembered in 1998 that they deliberately dialed down the yield not to inflict collateral damage or a radiation leak on the nomadic population that lived near Pokhran.

[sudeepj]

Pokhran is not a densely populated area. I am sure larger devices can be tested with proper compensation to the nearby residents. (Not more than 10,000 people or ~3000 houses. Meanwhile India built 2.5 million bpl housing in the past 5 years, or half a million houses per year). Another option is Lakshadweep.

One option we may get to test is, if any of the P5 test again. They cant sanction us for what they are doing themselves!

Yes, getting to $10T before testing and making ourselves sanctions proof is a way.. But we need to be ready for fleeting opportunities that may present themselves as the geo-political scenario opens up.

If we are threatened by PLA again, we should test.

Other opportunities may come up. But at least our physics and engineering and testing facilities need to be ready.

[Pratyush]

Sudeep,

Reading your arguments, and taking them to logical conclusions. A convincing argument cannot be made that a multiple MT nuclear devices are going to deter a nuclear strike by TSP.

So, are you are making an argument that India has to build 15 to 18 Thousand multi MT nuclear devices along with missiles with which to deliver those against, TSP, PRC, the USA, and Saudi Arabia?

As all of them are, and / or have acted as enablers of TSP.

[sudeepj]

I am not going to waste my time convincing you. You appear to have a cowardly mindset given your posts here and on Qatar where you want India to 'completely capitulate' and you are pushing an agenda. You have consistently mischaracterized the argument. Thus its clear that you are not arguing in good faith. Every great power has gone for multi megaton if not several hundred KT devices, if you have found some magic logic that makes you feel secure with 10 or 100KT patakhas, good for you.

Given the number of rockets we have and the irrational enemy, nothing short of a MT device will ensure deterrence and preclude nukes on Delhi.

[Pratyush]

You are not able to understand the conclusion of your own arguments.

And you accuse me of arguing in bad faith.

Keep it up.

[williams]

Gentlemen, If India needs to be a pole then it should possess every weapon that can keep the enemy at bay. But if you want to build an MT weapon, you cannot simply do one test. You need to do several tests several times over a long period of time to observe, improve, and optimize. Remember the Chinese took more than 40 years to conduct their 47 tests. India cannot keep looking for geopolitical windows to do such tests. Also making assumptions of sanity among the Western powers on their reaction to our tests during a geopolitical window is quite dangerous and we'll put our country behind without even fighting a war or using such weapons. We missed a crucial window between 1974 to 1998 to continue to conduct these tests and improve the weapon design to a point where improvement could be made without hard testing. Now if we need to get up to speed we need to conduct a lot many tests. Even grass-eating NK has tested their mall 6 times.

So I am still skeptical about this argument that we have a geopolitical window to start testing. If India deems it necessary to have an MT weapon that is more of a priority than economic and technological access to Western sources then she should simply declare that as a policy and start testing. Make no mistake there will be sanctions and India will not get a seat at the cool table. Pakis will become a munna again in more explicit terms and business with China will go on. Do you all think leaders combined with our babus will agree to such a thing? Most of their kiddos are studying and/or living in Western countries.

What are we talking about here? Even a strong govt with a thumping majority could not implement more simple things like CAA and Agricultural reform. How is the ruling party going to explain the rationale for eating grass as we develop our MT weapons? They will go out of power in no time. We need the economic withal to employ our youth in the country (ie no more long queues to get visas to get out of the country) and provide better living standards if we need their support to build something like this. If that won't work we need to have a totalitarian regime similar to CCP to work all these out without elections and political pandering.

[Pratyush]

If the climate of nuclear weapons testing returns. Then depending on the needs of the situation. India might choose to test or not test.

But if India tested a nuclear device.

Then I don't foresee any serious implications for India.

Secondly, I don't see why India is not conducting / or has not conducted testing of the non nuclear components of the device. In Order to arrive at new divice configurations or even components for a higher yield device.

[sanman]

Gentlemen, If India needs to be a pole then it should possess every weapon that can keep the enemy at bay. But if you want to build an MT weapon, you cannot simply do one test. You need to do several tests several times over a long period of time to observe, improve, and optimize. Remember the Chinese took more than 40 years to conduct their 47 tests. India cannot keep looking for geopolitical windows to do such tests. Also making assumptions of sanity among the Western powers on their reaction to our tests during a geopolitical window is quite dangerous and we'll put our country behind without even fighting a war or using such weapons. We missed a crucial window between 1974 to 1998 to continue to conduct these tests and improve the weapon design to a point where improvement could be made without hard testing. Now if we need to get up to speed we need to conduct a lot many tests. Even grass-eating NK has tested their mall 6 times.

So I am still skeptical about this argument that we have a geopolitical window to start testing. If India deems it necessary to have an MT weapon that is more of a priority than economic and technological access to Western sources then she should simply declare that as a policy and start testing. Make no mistake there will be sanctions and India will not get a seat at the cool table. Pakis will become a munna again in more explicit terms and business with China will go on. Do you all think leaders combined with our babus will agree to such a thing? Most of their kiddos are studying and/or living in Western countries.

What are we talking about here? Even a strong govt with a thumping majority could not implement more simple things like CAA and Agricultural reform. How is the ruling party going to explain the rationale for eating grass as we develop our MT weapons? They will go out of power in no time. We need the economic withal to employ our youth in the country (ie no more long queues to get visas to get out of the country) and provide better living standards if we need their support to build something like this. If that won't work we need to have a totalitarian regime similar to CCP to work all these out without elections and political pandering.

I very much disagree with your arguments. Why not also invite British back in, with the hope that this will unlock more access to Western economic resources. Where do you draw the line, sir? We need to have massive nuclear strategic deterrent power that will keep the Chinese off us. Westerners cannot sanction us cost-free. They need us too. With a more powerful nuclear strategic deterrent, we could then more confidently engage the Chinese -- and even selectively tilt in their direction if the West harasses us too much over our N-tests. West cannot have their cake and eat it too. It cannot have their much-desired Quad containment cooperation while keeping us down and on the ropes at the mercy of the Chinese.
We face Mega-Threats, and these need Mega-Deterrence, and that means Mega-ton nukes. We also need the little mini-nukes too. And we could benefit from gathering enough data for hydronuclear testing and numerical simulation.

[Anant]

IMHO the two things India lacks are a credible megaton device (design) and or actual warhead and an openly announced sub or land (silo) launched MIRV missile with a range in excess of 12,000 km. Yes, both have been bandied about and alluded to, but if it is to become a regional or bigger power, what's the shame in having a coming out party? Those who know already know. Those that don't will take a different line in treating India with greater self-respect.

[sudeepj]

I was around in 98. No one ate grass. Even the sanctions back then were on DRDO, BARC etc. and not like the sanctions on Iran or Russia. Given the geopolitical scenario, I dont think there will be any sanctions if this is timed properly. E.g. if we are actively involved in a western alliance system, there is absolutely no question of sanctions. If we test when the big powers start testing, there is no question of sanctions. India is far too important now to be bottled up by some stale sanctions threat.

No one is arguing for a test right now, just arguing for a recognition of the need, and preparation of the physics, engineering, and the test site.

[sanman]

I was around in 98. No one ate grass. Even the sanctions back then were on DRDO, BARC etc. and not like the sanctions on Iran or Russia. Given the geopolitical scenario, I dont think there will be any sanctions if this is timed properly. E.g. if we are actively involved in a western alliance system, there is absolutely no question of sanctions. If we test when the big powers start testing, there is no question of sanctions. India is far too important now to be bottled up by some stale sanctions threat.

No one is arguing for a test right now, just arguing for a recognition of the need, and preparation of the physics, engineering, and the test site.

Right now, Pak is on the ropes economically, so they likely wouldn't be able to follow us with their own N-tests.

Meantime, we could help USA thru LECISMOA (or whatever the f* it's called, I can't remember) so that they could take out the Iranians more comfortably with better logistics supplies -- in exchange for Quid Pro Quo, where they don't harass/sanction us over our N-tests.

[VKumar]

I was around in 98. No one ate grass. Even the sanctions back then were on DRDO, BARC etc. and not like the sanctions on Iran or Russia. Given the geopolitical scenario, I dont think there will be any sanctions if this is timed properly. E.g. if we are actively involved in a western alliance system, there is absolutely no question of sanctions. If we test when the big powers start testing, there is no question of sanctions. India is far too important now to be bottled up by some stale sanctions threat.

No one is arguing for a test right now, just arguing for a recognition of the need, and preparation of the physics, engineering, and the test site.

FBW software was impounded. Cryogenic engine was denied.

[Rupesh]

We developed our own FBW and built own cryogenic engine ( The technology was denied long before Pokhran 2, engines were provided per contract). Testing nukes were more important.

[S_Madhukar]

My 2c while I would love India to chase everything for MT strike is that I today would not rely on Unkil to not sanction us adequately given the current woke disposition and social media warfare… if anything we are already seeing this in WW3 all hybrid shades of conflict and the world is far more irrational now than 20 years ago . We need to finish our outstanding projects first for tech transfer in mil or industry to be sanction proof before we openly test again similar to what lizard has done.