Hamas attack.on Israel. Oct 2023

[AkshaySG]

Israel will do what it thinks is best but that will not take away from the fact that this scorched earth approach will lead to a lot more radicalization within Palestinians and arabs and help Hamas/Iranian recruitment for the next several decades

Not to mention it will weaken its standing with the Americans who have usually been mostly pro Israel for the last 75 years.

During the mid 90s and and even a few moments in the 00s it seemed a two state approach could have been viable but that has been blown to bits first by Oct 7 and then by what's happneded since.

[nachiket]

The top Hamas leaders are sitting safe in Qatar and their funding also comes from Qatar and other Arab countries. Even if the Israelis can find and kill every single Hamas commander and footsoldier in Gaza, which is likely impossible (some may have escaped and others disappeared into the civilian population), they will eventually reform anyway. There will be no lack of new recruits after the devastation in Gaza which will be used for propaganda and recruiting purposes. Every young man and boy left homeless, jobless and having seen loved ones die will make a beeline for any Hamas recruiting center as soon as the Israeli troops leave. Constant propaganda means that they don't even believe that Hamas massacred Israeli civilians and started this war or they don't care because Yehudis are kaffirs anyway. Disastrous situation which is not going to resolve anytime soon.

[vera_k]

Israel is losing the PR war and not getting its message across.

One of the more insidious fake news making its way on the young adult campus grapevine is that Israel could rescue the hostages if they wanted to. Except that they much rather prefer killing more civilians.

[AkshaySG]

A couple of days ago news came out that World Central Kitchen workers died in a recent strike by Israel.
This is a very popular aid org and Chef Jose Andreas who started it runs in the liberal circles of Clinton/Obama and is extremely popular among the standard college educated white demograhpic.

The reason i point this out specifically is that Israel is losing its perception even among these folks , It is no longer only the "far-left" or Muslim-americans or the college age hippies that are coming out in force against the war but middle of the road white Americans. This will inevitably lead to decrease in military support which is so critical to Isreal

How does that matter to India ? Well if the US falters in its aid then Israel may look to Europe and India for more direct military aid and we would have to decide how to respond. We would also need to decide how firm we are on advocating for a two state solution as any hope for that blows up with every passing week.

[Tanaji]

I humbly put it that we are in position to give military aid to anyone. We are in dire straits ourselves. If anything the Ukraine and Hamas war has taught us is that the ammunition and other expenditures are on such a scale that we are off on our war reserves by a minimum of 3-5x if not more. Our generals should be asking for more storage, more shells, more gun barrels .., we have none to spare.

[sanman]

A couple of days ago news came out that World Central Kitchen workers died in a recent strike by Israel.
This is a very popular aid org and Chef Jose Andreas who started it runs in the liberal circles of Clinton/Obama and is extremely popular among the standard college educated white demograhpic.

The reason i point this out specifically is that Israel is losing its perception even among these folks , It is no longer only the "far-left" or Muslim-americans or the college age hippies that are coming out in force against the war but middle of the road white Americans. This will inevitably lead to decrease in military support which is so critical to Isreal

How does that matter to India ? Well if the US falters in its aid then Israel may look to Europe and India for more direct military aid and we would have to decide how to respond. We would also need to decide how firm we are on advocating for a two state solution as any hope for that blows up with every passing week.

After this strike which killed the 7 food workers, Israeli govt's response was that it knew it was hitting the aid convoy, but felt it had to do so, because the convoy visited a food warehouse which had an armed guard - and armed guard might have been Hamas. But the convoy was hit much after it left that warehouse. I'm stunned that they could sacrifice the lives of the international aid workers to kill that one guy? They repeatedly hit the convoy - after they hit the first car, the survivors then piled into the 2nd car. Then the Israelis later hit the 2nd car, and those survivors then piled into the 3rd car. The Israelis then hit the 3rd car, and finished them off. So we're talking about 3 different missile strikes here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCZx1oRLWuI

I think the Israeli explanation basically amounts to issuing threats with a smile, telling the international aid community "stay away, or we'll kill you next"

I think Netanyahu wants to go all-out to finish off the Palestinians completely, while Israeli public opinion will still allow it.

[Aditya_V]

Europe wants to send Aid and Aid workers to keep Gazans in Gaza while Israel/ USA these guys to emigrate and enrich the societies in Europe, simple.

[Cyrano]

Oct 7th remains a dastardly terrorist act. But Israel's response in the past few of months make it clear that this has to stop. You cannot imagine any peace solution this way.

Recent statements by Dr SJ do indeed indicate that we are no longer fully behind Israel in the way they are prosecuting this war. I'm trying to find a reference, it was in response to a question during his visit to Malaysia I think, the shift in our position was clear.

[sanman]

Biden warning Israel to change its policy or else US may change its policy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-ThEwPgKHY

[sanman]

Oct 7th remains a dastardly terrorist act. But Israel's response in the past few of months make it clear that this has to stop. You cannot imagine any peace solution this way.

Recent statements by Dr SJ do indeed indicate that we are no longer fully behind Israel in the way they are prosecuting this war. I'm trying to find a reference, it was in response to a question during his visit to Malaysia I think, the shift in our position was clear.

Israel automating their killing with AI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=799UJDl5qEE

[Pratyush]

Snip...

Recent statements by Dr SJ do indeed indicate that we are no longer fully behind Israel in the way they are prosecuting this war. I'm trying to find a reference, it was in response to a question during his visit to Malaysia I think, the shift in our position was clear.

India has always supported a two state solution. Nothing has changed in our position.

The war between Israel and Hamas is not our business and we are well served by not identifying too much with either side. If the Israelis need weapons that we can supply. Sell them and provide aid shipments to Gaza.

[ShauryaT]

I would be interested in some views on this lecture.

1. Thoughts on Israel involved in a "genocide" in Gaza?
2. Thoughts on Israel has lost escalation dominance as it relates to Hezbollah and Iran?
3. I am familiar with views amongst millennials/gen Z of the US population on this issue but I was wondering if there are similar views, in the elite segments of India?
4. Any thoughts on what Israel's relative end game is, once the bullets stop flying?
5. Israel's Long-term future as it relates to its economy, a relatively safe place to live/visit?

[sanman]

I would be interested in some views on this lecture.

1. Thoughts on Israel involved in a "genocide" in Gaza?

Netanyahu's govt are clearly trying to de-populate Gaza by making it unliveable.
They're using the campaign against Hamas as a pretext for this.

2. Thoughts on Israel has lost escalation dominance as it relates to Hezbollah and Iran?

I agree there -- although that may change if Trump comes back to power, because while Israel may no longer have escalation dominance over Iran, the United States would clearly still have escalation dominance over Iran, even if the latter goes nuclear.

I think you should pay attention to what Mearsheimer says @ 1:29:05
Trump is going to come back seeking to neutralize the Deep State. Whether he'll be successful remains to be seen. It may be a titanic battle.

3. I am familiar with views amongst millennials/gen Z of the US population on this issue but I was wondering if there are similar views, in the elite segments of India?

Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.
This is gaining increasing currency among Indian planners because of the problems with US, which not only include their vilification campaign against India, but also their fiscal and financial irresponsibility which threaten to destroy the value of dollar-holders. Therefore India also needs to look at a de-dollarized future which limits its exposure to the dangerously fragile dollar.
That's why India has suddenly signed the 10-year agreement with Iran on Chabahar, because India feels a need to pursue this opportunity, or at least keep it open as an option.

4. Any thoughts on what Israel's relative end game is, once the bullets stop flying?

Netanyahu's govt have no end game, other than to make Gaza so unliveable that Israel can present the world with a fait d'accompli, and tell the world that they've got to take the Palestinians out of there out of compassion, on the grounds that the place is unliveable.
So Netanyahu is riding the tiger. His coalition partners are the most radical extremists who will never accept anything other than immediate ethnic cleansing. Netanyahu's Likud party have also likewise traditionally been committed to a Jewish state that spans "from the river to the sea"

Netanyahu's coalition more realistic coalition partner, defense minister Yoav Gallant has publicly disagreed with Netanyahu by calling for a plan for some kind of Palestinian governance over Gaza that would not see the IDF stuck there occupying it in perpetuity while bearing unending casualties.

5. Israel's Long-term future as it relates to its economy, a relatively safe place to live/visit?

Did you notice what Mearsheimer said @ 1:27:28 about how, following the Oct 7 attack, over 500,000 Israelis left the country, and there was also a flood of applications from Israelis trying to regain Polish citizenship? Maybe these people see the handwriting on the wall.

Israel is very rapidly becoming a pariah state in the eyes of the world, with its only strong ally being the US.
South Africa's campaign at the ICC may bear fruit with Israeli officials being charged with war crimes, etc.
This divestment campaign may continue to gain traction, and ultimately suck out life from Israel's economy.
Various countries have announced their intention to give diplomatic recognition to a Palestinian state, and grant diplomatic facilities (Presumably this would be done for the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, while Hamas remains a pariah in the Western world)

Israel's future may be tied to the rise of multi-polarity, which may not be in its interests, since multi-polarity then limits the power of the United States as global hegemon, which Israel has been a clear beneficiary of.
We Indians of course welcome multi-polarity, which we see as important to our own rise.

[Aditya_V]

From everything I have seen, Qatar- US and Woke ecosystem have more control over Hamas than even Iran.

I suspect the whole game is to get the Gaza residents to Europe, for some reason and to make sure without getting hate from the Jewish Lobby, the Muslim lobby votes exactly as required in various elections including India. Its an issue which keeps the community motivated and united.

[Vayutuvan]

Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.

So what happens to IMEC? Is it your view/Mershiemer's that India can play on both sides assuming that it is a two-player game - US/Israel vs. Iran (supported by Russia)? India is not really a player in the West Asia game, even if it is not a two player game. The other players are Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Qatar, and KSA. There are shifting alliances but there is a clear divide between USA+Israel on one side and Iran+Syria+Lebanon on the other side.

[Vayutuvan]

The war between Israel and Hamas is not our business and we are well served by not identifying too much with either side. If the Israelis need weapons that we can supply. Sell them and provide aid shipments to Gaza.

Very well put.

[sanman]

Have you heard of the INSTC - the proposed International North South Transport Corridor that would connect India and Russia? It runs through Iran.

So what happens to IMEC? Is it your view/Mershiemer's that India can play on both sides assuming that it is a two-player game - US/Israel vs. Iran (supported by Russia)?

Jaishankar has always said we keep multiple options open, especially since there's a pattern of any initial arrangement with US being frequently reneged upon by them.

Notice that after Oct 7, we saw Washington quickly move its venom campaign against India into high gear. It seems like they were only being nice to us while IMEC was imminent. As soon as Oct 7 happened, then IMEC was put on the back burner, and so was any cordiality towards India.

Israel-Saudi peace agreement was to be the lynchpin for an IMEC deal, but Oct 7 has made that impossible. Saudis are now unwilling to do any peace deal without some kind of grand bargain that includes 2-state solution for Palestinians. But of course Netanyahu govt are totally against any 2-state solution.

India is not really a player in the West Asia game, even if it is not a two player game. The other players are Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Qatar, and KSA. There are shifting alliances but there is a clear divide between USA+Israel on one side and Iran+Syria+Lebanon on the other side.

Israel likes to claim that the Arab gulf states are on their side (even if the Arab masses aren't)

[Amber G.]

Biden: Israel has offered a new roadmap for ceasefire which has been transmitted to Hamas by Qatar
-Phase1: Ceasefire immediately
-Phase2: Permanent end to hostilities between Israel, Hamas; release of all hostages, Israel to leave Gaza
-Phase3: Reconstruction for Gaza

Biden asks Israel to take 'a step back'
(Recent WH press briefing)

[chetak]

* T&C apply, see hamas brochure

[Manish_P]

...
-Phase3: Reconstruction for Gaza
...

Paid for by... ?

[Cyrano]

Why would they back off now? The entire gaza border including the part with Egypt is now under their control.

After this is over, Israel will slowly wean off from US support.

[Amber G.]

IDF conducts a special operation in Gaza, rescuing four Israeli hostages. The hostages, identified as Noa Argamani (25), Shlomi Ziv (40), Almog Meir Jan (21), & Andrey Kozlov (27), & were kidnapped from the Nova music festival by Hamas.!!!

[williams]

Why would they back off now? The entire gaza border including the part with Egypt is now under their control.

After this is over, Israel will slowly wean off from US support.

Yes that or they will go for a parasitic relationship. US enjoys parasitic relationship a lot more than symbiotic ones. Pakis can run a school on how that can be done.

[Deans]

My latest blog post on the Gaza war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... -next.html

I forecast Israel vs Hezbollah next.

[sanman]

Can somebody explain to me -- WTF is the 'Hannibal Directive'?

I'd vaguely heard some news circulating about it for past few days, but didn't get around to reading anything until today.

So IDF has contingency plans to shoot its people to prevent their capture? That's just unhinged. Those are not part of the acceptable rules of war.

Is this stuff actually true?

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/202 ... be45520000

[RamSuresh]

What would these two assassinations trigger further. Looking forward to your views

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/30/midd ... index.html

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... -112427801

[Hriday]

My latest blog post on the Gaza war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... -next.html

I forecast Israel vs Hezbollah next.

Some important points made by Deans in this blogspot is given below. Deans ji, is it ok if I post your writings in the blogspot? If not I will delete it.
1.

In my last post, I had said that Hezbollah, unlike in the 2006 war, was suffering from a poor loss ratio. They have lost, as per their figures, 331 fighters against 12 IDF killed. Inclusive of losses in Syria and among other Iran or Syria backed groups, losses are 589 killed, as claimed by Israel.
It is not a sustainable loss ratio for Hezbollah.

A question; Deans also pointed out that Pakistan is also suffering unsustainable loss of terrorists against India now.
Can Deans ji or others explain the meaning of this? For terrorist nations with high fertility rates, what do they lose by regularly losing terrorists? For sneak terror attacks, basic training in small arms and explosives would be enough, isn't it?

2.

While in the early stages of Houthi attacks, there was a concern that cheap drones attacking warships had to be countered with expensive anti-aircraft missiles, it is
now expensive Iranian anti-ship missiles that are failing to hit their targets and not cause significant damage when they do. In the process, Iran will expose more of its missiles (depleting their arsenal) while facilitating countermeasures. It is not a sustainable strategy, just as Hezbollah rocket & drones attacks are not.

3.

I have used Gaza health ministry numbers for civilian casualties. Though these appear to have overstated the
number of women and children killed and the methodology is suspect, they validate my point that most Hamas fighters have been neutralized.

[Amber G.]

From Alajazeera.: Ismail Haniyeh assassination: How will Iran respond?

[sanman]

What would these two assassinations trigger further. Looking forward to your views

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/30/midd ... index.html

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... -112427801

Apparently, Iran's leadership is vowing to strike back at Israel over Hamas leader's assassination



I think Netanyahu went out of his way to strike Hamas leader in Tehran, with the goal of forcing Iran to strike back. This can then provoke the wider war that Netanyahu wants. An increasingly weak senile doddering Biden won't resist such machinations.

Iran may have no choice but to strike back at Israel, or else lose face and also lose its proxy cadres.

If Iran does hit back, then there's always the chance that Israel will drag US in to clobber Iran. And that could prompt Russia to step in.

India needs to watch out, in case US tries some stunt like giving bailout to Pakistan in exchange for military help against Iran.

[sanman]

Israeli trolls media by announcing (fake) name of assassin who killed Haniyeh



Turkish media immediately repeat fake name blindly:

[S_Madhukar]

I think Eyeran will do the same trick as when Suleimani was knocked out. Hamas isn’t IRGC and I doubt new President wants to give more ammo to hawks considering he is supposed to be moderate. Plus if these chaps have moved out of Qatar then QPQ has been done already and this will be shot in the arm of the moderate Fateh chaps if they can get their act together

[Lisa]

Listen: BBC say Haniyeh considered a ‘moderate’ Hamas leader

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/lis ... as-leader/

It echoed language used by Reuters and Sky News on the matter – but that hasn’t stopped it ruffling feathers. The impartial Beeb might have made more of the fact that not only did Haniyeh become a key target for Israel after the 7 October attack, but that he himself insisted that there was a ‘need’ for deaths in Gaza to ‘ignite…the spirit of revolution’ amongst Hamas fighters. In the same rant, made last October, the militant leader went on to add:

"The blood [spilled] in the Gaza Strip…will defeat this occupier, will defeat this enemy… As I said, and I repeat every time, the blood of the children, women, and elderly – I do not say that it shouts out to you, but rather we need this blood so that it will ignite within us the spirit of revolution, so that it will arouse within us persistence, so that it will arouse within us defiance and [a forward] advance."

[sanman]

It seems like Israelis are riding the tiger. They're on a very high-risk path.
They'll need to ensure the US clears obstacles for them on their path, since otherwise there's no way they can travel it.
So if US comes around asking us for favours to enable that, then we'd better demand our own significant price - because Israelis will make them pay it.

Here's a hard-hitting piece from comedian John Oliver

[Manish_P]

Israeli trolls media by announcing (fake) name of assassin who killed Haniyeh...

Some pakis have taken 'Amit Nakesh' as an Indian name and declared that RAW aided Israel in the assassination

Yindu Yehudi saazish

[chetak]

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by an explosive device smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying, NYT reports.

— The bomb was planted approximately two months before the assassination.

— It was detonated remotely when Haniyeh's presence was confirmed.

— The assassination occurred in a guesthouse within the Neshat compound in northern Tehran.

— The compound is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/worl ... -bomb.html








A photograph, circulating on Telegram and among Iranian officials on Wednesday, that shows a damaged building in northern Tehran.

Credit...Provided to The Times

[Amber G.]

Iran notifies the UN that it would carry out a retaliatory att*ck on Israel in self-defense

-Iran quotes Article 51 of the UN charter.

UN Secretary-General Antonio confirmed in a phone call to the Iranian Foreign Minister that Iran has the 'inherent right to self-defense' against violations of its national security & territorial integrity.

[Amber G.]

"Activists" assembled at Press Club of India & raise voice against Indian companies doing arms export to Israel.

Arundhati Roy, Vrinda Karat, Prashant Bhushan, Siddharth Varadarajan, Co-Founder Editor, The Wire present.
They asked Modi Govt to break all ties with Israel.
They also urged all party units to jointly and independently unite the Indian people effectively on August 3.

[Deans]

My latest blog post on the Gaza war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... -next.html

I forecast Israel vs Hezbollah next.

Some important points made by Deans in this blogspot is given below. Deans ji, is it ok if I post your writings in the blogspot? If not I will delete it.

You are most welcome to share it here or anywhere else, as long as the source is mentioned.

Hriday ji, to your question on loss ratio - True, both Hamas and people across our border have high birth rates, but there are not many prepared
to go on virtual suicide missions. The majority want a better standard of living and (my hope) at some point they will realise that the quality
of life of the people in Kashmir they want to liberate is a lot better than theirs, just as Arabs in Israel but outside the West Bank and Gaza enjoy
a far better quality of life.

[Hriday]

^^^
Deans ji, thanks for the reply.

[chetak]