Deterrence

[hgupta]

Amber G,
While accusing others of bias, you don't seem to read posts carefully.

I wrote IF true, and thats a big IF. Instead of debunking the fellow who wrote that article, you go off about ginger counters etc.

The fellow says a fusion type mini nuke. Before you start lecturing, we all know what it takes to trigger one. How much radioactivity would that leave behind? No part of the Swedish agencies reports were made public. SO we HAVE to take what Swedish agencies are reporting using their seismic sensors and $25 or $100 Geiger counters, and take their word as gospel. Of course, Russia whose pipelines were destroyed was excluded from the investigation.

It doesn't matter HOW the NS was destroyed beyond a point. WHO dun it is what matters now. The MSM that wrote scores of pages on Bucha and kidnapped children was silent on such a huge ecological and energy security disaster, begs the question WHY ?

I'd love to see how these NATO countries and their MSMs will react if India did another round of N tests, to prove its mini-nuke designs. Hope we'll have you batting for Bharat even then.

He did nothing of the sort. You seem to be merrily chasing theories into a rabbit hole based on purely conjecture without any substantive or conclusive proof and he is calling you out for it.

There were no mini-nukes involved in that explosion. Just a very powerful bomb that would cut through the pipes that have been reinforced against the pressure of the sea.

[Cyrano]

I admit I wasn't there so I could be wrong

[SSridhar]

Discussion about why the US must move away from entirely counterforce to a mix of counterforce plus countervalue, in order to take the combined might of China and Russia, without increasing its nuclear arsenal.

The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Can Deter Both China and Russia - Glaser, Acton & Fetter - Foreign Affairs

[ramana]

Shows the decline of super power!

[drnayar]

Discussion about why the US must move away from entirely counterforce to a mix of counterforce plus countervalue, in order to take the combined might of China and Russia, without increasing its nuclear arsenal.

The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Can Deter Both China and Russia - Glaser, Acton & Fetter - Foreign Affairs

..read..the US does not want to get into an arms race with China .. knowing it cant win.. karma coming a full circle.. it was not so long ago the US bankrupted the Soviet Union using a similar tactic

[Haridas]

I think a revisit of the NFU part of the Indian MND is appropriate at this uncertain times.

Current global situtation is more than uncertain, it is volatile time.

Bharat must publically share it revised doctrin (in summary).

[drnayar]

I think a revisit of the NFU part of the Indian MND is appropriate at this uncertain times.

Current global situation is more than uncertain, it is volatile time.

Bharat must publicly share it revised doctrine (in summary).

Indeed, deterring China requires more than ambiguity in its arsenal as well as a robust response in its doctrine

[Amber G.]

I posted about about Dr. Swaminathan in this thread a few months ago.

Noting that:

One anecdote: After the nuclear tests of 1998, He said something very telling to in an Indian Science conference "

You people in Defence, Atomic Energy and Space think of these as "strategic". But without food security, we couldn't have done the nuclear tests."

He was right.

I am glad, that it was announced that Dr. Swaminathan is now honored with Bharat-Ratna!

[Amber G.]

This may be of interest:

I happened to visit Nevada National Security Site, a place steeped in history with over 100 atmospheric nuclear tests and 1000s of underground tests.. Apart from the first Atom bomb tested in New Mexico's Trinity site (which i visited in the past) *all* atomic tests inside USA were tested here. (Exception were some large Thermo nuclear bombs were tested in South Pacific).

This was really memorable!

Sedan Crater (apart several such craters), where the effects of a 140 Kiloton nuclear device (in 1962) were evident - large crater 1300 by 320 ft -- It was a sobering experience, to say the least.

The Knob Hill, where Walter Cronkite famously reported the first live mushroom cloud after an explosion. Standing in that historic spot, we couldn't help but feel the weight of history bearing down on us... People then watched the mushroom cloud, shock waves some 50-100 miles away -- even is Las Vegas - where crowed gathered to watch on rooftops.. (and felt the quake etc).

There were trenches where US troops dug-in just few Km from point zero,... miles away there were benches and view points - (many famous/historic photographs of leaders watching the event )... and houses built with different constructions, and different kind of basements, (with mannequins insides) to study the effect...(VERY sobering to see the results)

One site - where last nuclear test was all ready - but due to treaty with then Soviet Union was scrubbed at the last moment --they left almost everything (except the bomb) .. tunnel (1000 feet deep).. testing equipments/ cables etc.. as it was..

My take on one thing - in 1950's/60's they have to do that much testing mostly for learning .. each test gave new data ...now there is not the need as the science and engineering is much understandable...

One thought - during those 20-30 years -- US performed one nuclear test every week...

(No cameras, iphones, electonics, or Geiger Counter were allowed ..I decided to test the radiation level on my shoes afterward -- it was high but well within the safe limits lower than sands of Kerala..

For details one can do search for Sedan Crater etc.. here is the site - some info is openly available:
https://www.energy.gov/em/nevada-nation ... sites-nnss

[ShauryaT]

A long overdue forward step has been taken.

FINALLY, Divyastra, 19 years late. Next up — Thermonuclear testing - Bharat Karnad

The MIRV tech has been collecting dust at the Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL), Hyderabad, for the last 19 years. It was a project lovingly shepherded to near completion by RN Agarwal, the then Director, ASL. He wanted to complete it by the time he retired in 2004. But the project missed the deadline by a year. In part because Dr Agarwal’s approaches since 2002 to the first BJP government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee for approval of a test launch of a MIRVed Agni did not elicit the response he had hoped for. The Vajpayee PMO, with Brajesh Mishra, the National Security Adviser-cum-Principal Private Secretary to the PM, heading it, repeatedly said NO! But Agarwal’s spirited campaign for the Indian MIRV project cost him a promotion. He was passed over for the post of DRDO chief and Secretary to the Govt of India (GOI), because Mishra feared Agarwal would use the DRDO pulpit to push MIRV, which Mishra did not want. The head of the Arjun Main Battle Tank Project, Dr M Natarajan, was appointed to lead DRDO instead.

The Manmohan Singh regime wouldn’t OK the MIRV test, and Narendra Modi didn’t either until sometime in late 2022 when he green-flagged the Divyastra test launch.

[ramana]

History of China's quest for Hydrogen bomb.
Achieved in 2.5 years after fission bomb.

https://thebulletin.org/2024/04/the-sho ... ogen-bomb/

[dinesh_kimar]

1. The Book "Weapons of Peace" Is avbl on libgen, i believe.

2. 1998 test, R. Chidambaram said there were 3 bombs in 11th May- an improved 1974 type fission bomb ( air launched from Mirage 2000 with special pylons and toss bombing maneuver, at about 12 Kt, its 20℅ improved yield from 1974 version) , a pure hydrogen bomb whose trigger is a fusion boosted fission (the trigger alone is approx. 4 fold improvement of 1974 device, say 40 kt, the hydrogen bomb apparently had 3 settings of 5kt, 50kt and 250 kt, and was set at 50kt for the test- this yield was achieved during test and they are satisfied. The delivery platform is adapted to Agni -2 missile tested later in 1999 for 2000km), and low yield sub kiloton device for computer simulation purpose as a database.

3. 13th May - 2 more sub kiloton tests done for simulation database, incl. 1 with reactor grade plutonium. 6th low yield device not tested as not required, frivolous. Each device had seperate shaft, 6 in total- Whitehouse, Tajmahal, Khumbkaran, Navtal 1,2 and 3.

4. Hydrogen bomb mastered only after 1996 PVNR test aborted, if tested earlier in1996, only 40 kt boosted fission, 12 kt air launch and sub kiloton would have been offered for test, not H bomb.

5. Chidambaram wanted h bomb test with boosted fission trigger, maybe due to highest yield configuration avbl with india at that time. For some reason, not concerned with multiple tests for reliability, maybe series of experiments in BARC has already validated all technologies/ sub components involved and is a soilid back up, so confidence high?

[dinesh_kimar]

Added later:

6. H-bomb tested configuration with boosted fission trigger is the payload of Agni missile.

7. Until 1999, India apparently had no nuclear delivery means other than the Mirage 2000. The Prithvi never had a nuclear payload, DRDO was struggling to reduce CEP and develop conventional warheads, armed forces were arm twisted to buy Prithvi 1/2 versions without development trials, IAF and IA had their usual spat on who controlled ranges beyond 150 km.

8. From those early days 26 years ago, India has come a long way with variety of delivery platforms offered as a triad- 6 types of Agni incl. MIRV ICBM, cruise missile , at least 2 types of slbm, and various theatre ballistic missile like Prithvi, Pralay, Pragati, Pranash, etc.
Platforms may be Mirage 2000/ Su-30 mki/ Rafale/ Drones/ SLBM from Arihant class, and truck based TEL / Railway coach TEL. Stand alone silos apparently not required?

Overall, the highest range is 8000 km with Agni 5, Highest yield weapon is 250 kt thermonuclear. So maybe there exists a credible minimum deterrence...

Vajpayee himself had stated in Parliament, on the advice of BARC/ AEC that devices upto 200 kt can be produced. Anil Kakodkar and Chidambaram have asserted the same to the media. Kakodkar has told Shekar Gupta in a Walk the Talk episode that some devices with 200 kt yield are prepared and available.

The 250 kt yield figure / 3 dial-a -yield configuration was in one of Journal papers i came across recently, will try to locate it again , from one of the govt. Think tanks.

[vsunder]

^^^ @dinesh.kumar why are you regurgitating useless crap. You are a newbie so learn:

Here

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... amana.html


http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... crater.pdf

Second article on Crater Phenomenon appeared in the BRM here(it was apparently sent to BARC for peer review by BRM editors and created a sensation there as I was told)

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... index.html

Eventually SK Sikka who designed the TN device got in touch with me and I was asked to speak at the National Institute for Advanced Study(NIAS) in Bangalore, Raja Ramanna's outfit adjoining the IISc campus. I politely refused. Particularly Sikka was very impressed as to how I dealt with Sublette's analysis and destroyed it in the crater article.

Articles above have been referenced by many think tanks and even have appeared in books. One such book was a collection of articles by the Brookings Institution. Here is one


https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaRef.html

[vsunder]

For another example: Since some of you know there is something called Libgen as the poster^^^ has given this gyaan about Libgen, go and look at this Libgen and download the book

The India-China Relationship---Rivalry and Engagement(Oxford University Press), which is a collection of articles with Francine R. Frankel and Harry Harding editors.


The article by George Perkovich in this book titled The Nuclear and Security Balance, pp 178-218 quotes the article in BRM linked above joint with Ramana and Thundyil ---reference [36] on page 215 in the book.

The book is nowadays published by Columbia University Press under a slightly different title:

https://www.amazon.com/India-China-Rela ... 0231132379

[wig]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20 ... d%20Russia.

US conducted 1st subcritical nuclear test since Sept. 2021 May 18, 2024 (Mainichi Japan)
excerpts

The NNSA, an arm of the U.S. Energy Department, said in a statement issued Thursday that it "relies on subcritical experiments to collect valuable information to support the safety, security, reliability and effectiveness of America's nuclear warheads, without the use of nuclear explosive testing."

It said the experiment was executed Tuesday evening in the Principal Underground Laboratory for Subcritical Experimentation facility at the Nevada National Security Site.

The United States suspended underground nuclear tests in 1992 and began subcritical nuclear tests five years later.

As subcritical nuclear tests do not result in a nuclear explosion, the United States has asserted that they are not prohibited under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which the country has signed but not ratified.

The NNSA also said the latest test, which brought the total number of U.S. subcritical tests to 34, did not form a self-sustaining, supercritical chain reaction and was therefore consistent with the country's self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing in place since 1992.

Tuesday's test was the first in the "Nimble series," carried out with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the NNSA said, adding it will continue the new cycle of experiments also with support from Los Alamos National Laboratory.

"We plan to increase the frequency of these subcritical experiments so we can continue to gather important data on nuclear weapons materials, with no technical need for a return to underground nuclear explosive testing," Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for the agency's defense programs, said in the statement.

[Amber G.]

Kakodkar says ex-chief of Los Alamos lab believed India would not give up N-weapons

MUMBAI: Anil Kakodkar, former chairman of atomic energy commission (AEC), has revealed that Siegfried Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory in the US, had deposed in the US Senate in 2008 that the sanctions which followed Pokhran 2 tests had no impact on India’s nuclear weapons programme.
Kakodkar stated this while speaking at a programme organized by the National Academy of Sciences on May 18, in New Delhi, to mark the golden jubilee of “Smiling Buddha”, code name for India’s first nuclear test at Pokhran in Rajasthan on this very day in 1974.
Los Alamos National Laboratory is home to the Manhattan Project, the secret US programme during World War II to design and develop the first atomic bomb. Hecker was the director of the lab from 1986 to 1997.
Kakodkar quoted Hecker as having told the Senate: “I don’t think our sanctions have particularly stopped its (India) nuclear weapons programme. What our sanctions have done is slow down their nuclear energy programmes.” Kakodkar also recalled Hecker’s statement to the effect that India is now a nuclear weapons country.

A ccording to Kakodkar, Hecker further told the Senate: “It may actually, and I believe, be much in our benefit to have nuclear cooperation for nuclear energy with India.”
“They (India) will never get rid of the nuclear weapons they have now until there is global disarmament,” Kakodkar quoted Hecker as having said during his deposition before the US Senate.

R Chidambaram, also a former chairman of AEC and the architect of Operation Shakti, or Pokhran 2, when India conducted a series of five nuclear-weapon tests on May 11 and 13, 1998, who also spoke at the Saturday event, made it clear that “there is no real difference between a ‘Peaceful Nuclear Explosion’ (PNE)” — the phraseology used by India to describe operation “Smiling Buddha” in 1974 — and a nuclear weapons test.


“It was only in terms of packaging,” Chidambaram said, while underscoring the need and importance of nuclear weapons for a country like India.

[wig]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 067300.cms
china Boosting Nuclear Arsenal, Has 3x India's Warheads: SIPRI
excerpts

China is boosting its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country around the globe, and now has triple the number of warheads that India has, while it also deploys some of them on "high operational alert" on ballistic missiles.

Pakistan, in turn, maintains its rough parity with India in the number of nuclear warheads, while Russia and the US are leagues ahead of others, together accounting for 90% of all nuclear weapons.
China now has 500 warheads, up from 410 in January 2023, while India has 172 (from 164 in 2023) and Pakistan 170 (unchanged from 2023), as per the latest assessment by the Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI)

some other information

India is increasingly going in for more canister-launch missiles - with the warhead already mated with the missile - for the requisite operational readiness and flexibility to store it for long periods, swiftly transport it through rail or road, and fire it whenever required.
India is also set to strengthen its weakest leg of the nuclear triad by finally commissioning its second SSBN (naval parlance for nuclear-propelled submarines armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles), INS Arighat, within the next few months. The first, INS Arihant, became operational in 2018.

regarding mirv

SIPRI also said India, Pakistan and North Korea are all pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, a capability that the US, UK, Russia, France and China already have. "This would enable a rapid potential increase in deployed warheads, as well as the possibility for nuclear-armed countries to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets," it said.

[Yogi_G]

All these talks of Chinese warheads just like their conventional weapons misses out on the theatre of war. What China has is peanuts compared to the number it needs against US alone forget Russia. Their current arsenal is just about sufficient for India, SKorea and Japan.

[ramana]

CNBC: U.S. and China hold first informal nuclear talks in 5 years, eyeing Taiwan

Chinese representatives offered reassurances after their U.S. interlocutors raised concerns that China might use nuclear weapons if it faced defeat in a conflict over Taiwan.

The two countries briefly resumed talks over nuclear arms in November but those negotiations have since stalled, with a top U.S. official publicly expressing frustration at China's responsiveness.

The U.S. Department of Defense estimated last year that Beijing has 500 operational nuclear warheads and will probably field more than 1,000 by 2030.

Since 2020, China has also modernized its arsenal, starting production of its next-generation ballistic missile submarine, testing hypersonic glide vehicle warheads and conducting regular nuclear-armed sea patrols.

A key point the U.S. side wanted to discuss, was whether China still stood by its no-first-use and minimal deterrence policies

Link
https://archive.is/OCBM6

[ramana]

Ignores US and UK modernization of arsenals

[SSridhar]

Pakistan arming JF-17 jets with Ra'ad nuke missiles - ToI

A recent image captured during rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade has shed light on the potential nuclear capabilities of Pakistan's JF-17 Thunder Block II aircraft. The photograph depicts a JF-17 carrying what appears to be a Ra'ad air-launched cruise missile (ALCM), marking the first public observation of this configuration.

Analyzing images of a JF-17 Thunder Block II from the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade rehearsals, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) confirmed that the fighter jet was equipped with a Ra'ad-I nuclear missile.

To determine the specific type of Ra'ad missile in the image, comparisons were made with Ra'ad-I and Ra'ad-II missiles displayed in previous Pakistan Day Parades. While the Ra'ad-II, first unveiled in 2017, was presented as having nearly double the range capability of the Ra'ad-I, external features did not clearly distinguish the two versions until 2022. The latest Ra'ad-II, displayed in 2022 and 2024, features a distinct 'x-shaped' tail fin configuration, while the missile photographed on the JF-17 more closely resembles the 'twin-tail' configuration of the Ra'ad-I, the FAS report said.

Using Photoshop's Vanishing Point feature and reference measurements from the vehicles carrying the missiles, the lengths of the Ra'ad-I and Ra'ad-II were estimated to be around 4.9 meters each. The missile on the JF-17 was also measured using the aircraft's length as a reference, resulting in a similar 4.9-meter estimate. These measurements, along with the tail fin configuration, suggest that the missile observed on the JF-17 is likely the Ra'ad-I ALCM rather than the newer Ra'ad-II or the conventional anti-ship variant, Taimoor, the FAS report by Eliana Johns said.

The image provides evidence that Pakistan has made significant progress in equipping its JF-17s with the capability to supplement or replace the nuclear strike role of the ageing Mirage III/Vs. However, questions remain about the deployment status of the Ra'ad systems and whether Pakistan will continue to retain a nuclear gravity bomb capability or transition to stand-off cruise missiles exclusively.

These developments occur amidst an ongoing nuclear arms competition in the region, with Pakistan, India, and China pursuing advanced technologies such as multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). The heightened tensions and the development of short-range, lower-yield nuclear-capable systems by Pakistan have raised concerns about accelerated arms racing and escalation risks in a potential conflict between India and Pakistan.