Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC 2): News & Discussion

[Rakesh]

There were unconfirmed rumours of the Navy ordering a follow on batch of Rafales for their combat naval air wing. This rumour is now more or less becoming true. Be careful what we celebrate, because it opens the door for even more imports. TEDBF has yet to receive official sanction and these Admirals are looking to import more Rafale Ms.

Secondly, with six P-75I SSKs + follow on SSKs, six Project 75 Alpha SSNs, follow-on S5 Class SSBNs, Project 18 destroyers, frigates, corvettes, NUH, follow on MH-60Rs or DBMRHs...how are they planning to afford 5 to 6 more aircraft carriers? The Navy gets the least of the budget of all the three services.

Thirdly, Newport News Shipbuilding (the world's premier aircraft carrier manufacturer) took 6 to 8 years - on average - to build the Nimitz Class. The successor - Gerald R Ford Class - is taking longer. How long will it take Cochin Shipyard to build 5 to 6 more aircraft carriers, when INS Vikrant took 13 years to build (from keel laying to commissioning)?

Does Rajnath Singh have an advisor (that lives in the real world) that he can rely on, before he makes these grandoise and unrealistic announcements?

https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1790582185088684123 --->

[Pratyush]

Maybe, the Raksha Mantri is the one man who can sort out the various issues within our naval shipbuilding programs.

His performance with the LCA certainly gives grounds for optimism.

However, the submarine procurement mess and the ATAGS points to a patchy performance.

[Rakesh]

Rajnath Singh is repeating what the Admirals at Naval HQ are telling him. There is no way he came up with this hairbrained idea on his own. Naval HQ once again is falling into a mess of its own making. Admirals dithered on IAC-3 and P-75I for ever a decade and are continuing to do so. But massaging their ego is more important for these Admirals.

[Samay]

Maybe, the Raksha Mantri is the one man who can sort out the various issues within our naval shipbuilding programs.

His performance with the LCA certainly gives grounds for optimism.

However, the submarine procurement mess and the ATAGS points to a patchy performance.

Why is he telling what is being planned ?
He is increasing expectations for his own performance. why would he do that when it is clear that it is always the next to next defense minister who completes a project?

[drnayar]

Rajnath Singh is repeating what the Admirals at Naval HQ are telling him. There is no way he came up with this hairbrained idea on his own. Naval HQ once again is falling into a mess of its own making. Admirals dithered on IAC-3 and P-75I for ever a decade and are continuing to do so. But massaging their ego is more important for these Admirals.

why the pessimism, admiral ?

As long as it is ordered no need to worry ., Indian procurements are like that complicated child birth !!.. you never know the delivery date unless it comes to consultant PMs attention and an emergency caesarian is done for express delivery

[Rakesh]

why the pessimism, admiral ?

As long as it is ordered no need to worry ., Indian procurements are like that complicated child birth !!.. you never know the delivery date unless it comes to consultant PMs attention and an emergency caesarian is done for express delivery

Dr Saab, nothing has been ordered. That is the problem

This is like the 65,000 ton IAC-3 super carrier tamasha that went on for a decade. What came out of it?

This is a knee jerk reaction to the PLAN's Fujian sea trials. Now this circus will go back and forth for another decade. No concrete decision will ever be taken. When this goes to the Ministry of Finance for sanction, then watch the comedy that will occur.

Q. What is the construction timeframe for 5 - 6 more aircraft carriers? They have yet to sanction funds for IAC-3, forget keel laying! And they are talking about 5 to 6 more vessels!

Q. How many active aircraft carriers does the Navy want at any given time? Is it 3 + 5 (or 6) = 8 or 9 aircraft carriers? Or is this plan of 5 to 6 more aircraft carriers factor into account of the older vessels i.e. INS Vikramaditya? So will the newer vessels act as a replacement?

Q. How will the Navy afford this in lieu of all the other acquisitions they have in the pipeline. I am not even going to get into the Army and Air Force requirements. What will be the Air Force's (valid) budgetary objections to this new Naval HQ scheme of 5 to 6 additional aircraft carriers?

Did Rajnath Singh ever think of the above OR did he just blindly regurgitate what the Admirals at Naval HQ are telling him? This is a conniving ploy by Naval HQ to put all the onus on the Raksha Mantri. When this plan goes south (and it will), they will throw Rajnath Singh under the bus. They learnt their lesson from IAC-3, in which it was multiple chiefs arguing for it. After these chiefs got egg on their face, now this is Naval HQ's latest tactic.

P.S. A consistent and successive build program is something that makes ample sense. But having a 8 or 9 aircraft carrier fleet is budgetary foolishness! Oh to be a fly on the wall when the then CNS, Admiral Karambir Singh told the then CDS, the late General Bipin Rawat that the Navy could afford everything ---> six SSNs, six P-75I, IAC-3, etc. The look on the General's face must have been indeed priceless.

[chetak]

...

Rakesh ji,

There is opposition from within but it's not from the IN

The problems and the chinese whispers that beset the CDS in the early days are surfacing here too because "they" see budgets being diverted

Also, the compromised babooze, a clan apart on their own, are in it for themselves because they are feeling the effects of micro management erosion, and the corrosive loss of proximity to the powers that be, which in turn results in the attrition of their socioeconomic reach and political patronage in the MIC ecosystem, aka "jobs for the boys"

they are doing to this new necessity, what they essentially did during the CDS imbroglio

[Rakesh]

Chetak-ji ....

https://x.com/arunp2810/status/1790723576166748618 ---> The best way of avoiding such mirth would be for our ruling elite to convey crucial decisions (?) of this nature, via a national security strategy or a defence white paper, rather than as election bombast.

[chetak]

Chetak-ji ....

https://x.com/arunp2810/status/1790723576166748618 ---> The best way of avoiding such mirth would be for our ruling elite to convey crucial decisions (?) of this nature, via a national security strategy or a defence white paper, rather than as election bombast.

Rakesh ji,

not a fan

even a broken clock is right twice a day .....

post elections, big changes are expected, so who knows .. the IN was for long, seen as the poor step sister but she seems to have evolved into a Cinderella, and her fairy godmother may make an appearance.

The somali pirates have opened a lot of eyes and minds in the Indian establishment and enthused the jantha janardhan, along with the tens of nations whose ships had good reason to thank India because of the IN

[Rakesh]

post elections, big changes are expected, so who knows .. the IN was for long, seen as the poor step sister but she seems to have evolved into a Cinderella, and her fairy godmother may make an appearance.

The somali pirates have opened a lot of eyes and minds in the Indian establishment and enthused the jantha janardhan, along with the tens of nations whose ships had good reason to thank India because of the IN.

Saar, I have read about promises made, but never kept many times before. Hoping that I am wrong this time around.

Many changes are promised and expected, but nothing moves. See the date of first post in the P-75I thread. Nothing has changed since then and we have gone through two election cycles and are on the third one now.

And all it takes is losing one election cycle and all the carefully laid out Cinderella plans go to waste.

[chetak]

post elections, big changes are expected, so who knows .. the IN was for long, seen as the poor step sister but she seems to have evolved into a Cinderella, and her fairy godmother may make an appearance.

The somali pirates have opened a lot of eyes and minds in the Indian establishment and enthused the jantha janardhan, along with the tens of nations whose ships had good reason to thank India because of the IN.

Saar, I have read about promises made, but never kept many times before. Hoping that I am wrong this time around.

Many changes are promised and expected, but nothing moves. See the date of first post in the P-75I thread. Nothing has changed since then and we have gone through two election cycles and are on the third one now.

And all it takes is losing one election cycle and all the carefully laid out Cinderella plans go to waste.

Rakesh ji,

Sadly, I have to agree with you

[VinodTK]

It is sad indeed; if RM's plan is implemented INS will have more aircraft carriers
then capable / functional planes to land on them

[ramana]

65k tonne carrier was a pipe dream sold to IN by USN-trained folks.
India has the design for a 45K tonne carrier and will build one more.
The lifts need to be enlarged.
Meanwhile, the 65k tonne carrier design will be completed.

[Pratyush]

WRT, the 65 k tonnes aircraft for the Indian Navy.

I am seeing a lot of seperate pieces of the puzzle being assembled over the last several years. Especially when you are looking at the propulsion and engeneering solutions for a prospective ship.

So much so, that I am leaning towards the design being at fairy advanced stages of completion. If they choose to forego, EMALS. Then a clean sheet, sky jump ship design should be completed by 2026 to 27. That can be under construction by 27-28.

Such a ship also makes sense, from the perspective of the air group. If you note that the Navy is confident that the Rafale can operate from existing aircraft carriers.

Not to mention that the TEDBF is being designed for operations form of sky jump ships as well.

What I am trying to say is that all the pieces are in place. For the decision to be taken and executed.

[A Deshmukh]

Future aircraft carriers can be drone carriers (same size or smaller).
Also RNS said we will build 5-6 more carriers. Didnt say for IN. Maybe some plans for export in the works (Phillipines?).

[srin]

I find it strange that the RM is talking about building 5-6 carriers when we don't have a destroyer pipeline (not to talk about submarines).

[chetak]

WRT, the 65 k tonnes aircraft for the Indian Navy....

Pratyush ji,

Isn't the optimal propulsion choice for a carrier that has EMALS usually nuclear.

[Pratyush]

1) If you read the post again, I am saying, if they forego EMALS.

2) Strictly speaking nuclear is not required in order to run EMALS. What is more important is a smart grid that's capable of shunting power from one system to another without any drops or surge in electricity supply from the power plant.

If your grid is capable of handling such loads. Then you require a power plant needed to supply power.

Even the Ford is not using all the 1000+ MW electrical capacity to run the EMALS.

My guess is that, Fujian has between 240 to 300 MW electrical plant for 3 EMALS systems. If it's EMALS is a straight copy of the Ford system. With 100 MW electrical power to recharge one set of capacitors for one EMALS every 45 seconds. All three sets being recharged to 100% capacity every 135 seconds.

The point to be noted, the capacitor don't really require 100 MW/ Second. In order to recharge the capacitor to 100% capacity. It's going to be a lot less than that.

Remainder of the power being used for running the other ship systems.

[KL Dubey]

I find it strange that the RM is talking about building 5-6 carriers when we don't have a destroyer pipeline (not to talk about submarines).

Cup half full viewpoint - Looks like we will get more destroyers and subs then!

[drnayar]

I find it strange that the RM is talking about building 5-6 carriers when we don't have a destroyer pipeline (not to talk about submarines).

Cup half full viewpoint - Looks like we will get more destroyers and subs then!

True., carriers dont sail alone !!.. there would need to be destroyers and frigates providing air and anti sub cover..replinishment vessels/ command ships. And submarine/s too .. where are all those coming from

[Rakesh]

Cup half full viewpoint - Looks like we will get more destroyers and subs then!

True., carriers dont sail alone !!.. there would need to be destroyers and frigates providing air and anti sub cover..replinishment vessels/ command ships. And submarine/s too .. where are all those coming from

“You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose.” — Mario Cuomo, the former Governor of New York.

[srai]

I find it strange that the RM is talking about building 5-6 carriers when we don't have a destroyer pipeline (not to talk about submarines).

What timelines are we talking here? Is this a 50+ year vision?

Current position (last few decades) has been to have 3 carriers - 2 active and 1 in refit/reserve. IN is yet to achieve this. It sounds like it will take another two decades to get to 3 carriers fleet.

[Prem Kumar]

Whether as part of the carrier expansion plan or not, the MoD/MoF needs to loosen purse strings for us to truly become a blue-water navy. This includes creating additional shipyards, so that we can be building 2 carriers in parallel, if need be. Same with SSNs and SSKs

The IN Leadership also has to get their act together. Their P75I saga is matched in its incompetence only by the IAF's MRFA or the IA's Artillery program

Hope Modi 3.0 does a serious leadership & chain-of-succession cleanup, cashier the import-bahadurs & promote the right people (which will necessarily be out of turn). Needs to happen in all 3 Arms

[Pratyush]

I have thought a little more about the comment from the Raksha Mantri.

It was a classical political statement. We are discussing it to mean that the RM said that Indian Navy is going to end up with a fleet of upto 9 fighter aircraft carriers.

But thinking more about the subject. I am not so sure. The Indian Navy also has a stated requirement of 4 helicopter carriers.

Strictly speaking, a Helicopter carrier is also an Aircraft carrier. Therefore, therotically India can build a second improved Vikrant and follow-up it up with 3 additional 65 k ton ships. Plus 4 helicopter carriers.

Lo and behold, you arrive at 9 aircraft carrier fleet.

[Rakesh]

What timelines are we talking here? Is this a 50+ year vision?

Current position (last few decades) has been to have 3 carriers - 2 active and 1 in refit/reserve. IN is yet to achieve this. It sounds like it will take another two decades to get to 3 carriers fleet.

A crude comparison would be Newport News Shipbuilding, that built the 10 Nimitz Class aircraft carriers. It took NNS 41 years (from keel laying of USS Nimitz in 1968 to the commissioning of USS George HW Bush in 2009) to build and commission 10 aircraft carriers.

A five to six carrier building program in Indian SYs will easily take five decades, if not more. The inefficiency of our shipyards, combined with general elections (Govt priorities), funding, geopolitical events, ever changing military strategies will all factor into the timeline.

A better bet would be to do a follow on Vikrant Class (which is what they are doing now and thank goodness!) for IAC-2. And then followed by a two carrier build program (IAC-3 and IAC-4), which can be the IN's super carrier. Once they have figured out and ironed out the issues with the super carrier fleet (which will take a decade), then move on to plans to replace IAC-1 and IAC-2.

On average, modern aircraft carriers have a minimum 50 year lifespan, so INS Vikrant is not retiring before 2072.

So a continuous and consistent build program makes sense, to replace the older retiring vessels. And this is vital for keeping the personnel involved in the design, planning and construction of aircraft carriers, up to date. However planning for a 5 to 6 more carriers - with the issues listed above - is not realistic in India. This is just electioneering.

What should not be happening (which is what is going on now) is the long time gap between the construction of vessels. INS Vikrant was out for sea trials in August 2021. From that date till today, the workforce @ CSL is not actively building the next aircraft carrier. And that is concerning. Our submarine build program is the same story. The sixth Scorpene boat (the Vagsheer) started her sea trials in May 2023. The workforce @ MDL (worth their weight in gold) is sitting idle (metaphorically speaking) and is not building the next submarine. Heaven only knows when the follow-on batch of three more Scorpenes will start construction and I am not even going to get into the P-75I mess.

The Navy wasted a decade trying to push the super carrier for IAC-2 and they got no where. A decade! No accountability and no responsibility.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/AdithyaKM_/status/1791118398837211633 ---> Larger CATOBAR carriers have greater sortie generation rates that are just more cost effective, sustainable, substantially more comprehensive & capable than small STOBAR carriers, regardless of propulsion type. Repeat order for the Vikrant design makes sense due to other factors.

[Rakesh]

With third drydock, Cochin Shipyard Ltd aspires to become ship-repair hub
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states ... 36729.html
28 Nov 2023

https://x.com/Mark99xm/status/1795322038552535185 ---> New carrier dry dock at CSL, right in time for IAC-2.