Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Deans]

If both Russia and Ukn lose 1K soldiers a day - Ukn will run out of soldiers first. That explains why russia is fighting, they can win.

Why Ukn is fighting ?

Also much before they run out - depletion of force will lead to a total collapse. I dont know when that may happen. rn Ukns are defending well. They are losing but slowly - slow enough that at this rate Russia will take years to reach Kiev. ofcourse collapse is first slow, then sudden. I dont know when that will happen.

See Mediazona. This is an Anti Russia NGO working with the BBC to calculate actual Russian losses, which I have used in my blog, as the basis for
Russian losses. It also matches calculations of Opening strength + recruitment - losses - demobilized = current strength of Russian forces.
April losses are negligible (lower than Jan-Mar) though Russia is on the offensive.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

Ukrainian irrecoverable losses are consistently above 1000/day (1800 in the past week).

[Deans]

One very surprising revelation is that Russians don’t seem to have hardened aircraft shelters on their airbases!

… many more photos

There was a mass ATACAM raid on an airbase in Crimea. It resulted in the loss of a S-400 radar and launchers, (the 2nd one destroyed in a ATACAM/Storm shadow raid) and 4-5 aircraft incl. 1-2 SU-27's, 1 Mig29 and 2 mig31s.
Russian analysts are calling it an unpardonable that the aircraft were not in concrete shelters, which the local commander had apparently flagged the need over a year ago. That said:

Many of the aircraft on the base had been moved to bases further away. The SU-27's were probably damaged airframes, kept in a part of the
airfield meant for those aircraft. The Mig 29 was older and meant for local CAP work. The MiG 31s are literally irreplaceable as they are no
longer produced. Most of the ATACAMs were shot down.

Apparently, the damage to aircraft was not what the initial reaction was, which I earlier posted on.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... s-deserted

This substack provides the best analysis of the war I have seen. There is a Pro Russia bias, but a very high level of technical detail.

[srai]

Insight into how the FVP drone units are integrated into the Ukrainian battalions.

Consists of 3 groups:

1. warhead prep team -> donated or captured warheads repurposed for drones; make it light as possible
2. drone assembly team -> put together drone from factory parts and test them throughly; repair what they can and return what they can’t fix
3. operation team -> combat mission attaching drones and warheads for kamikaze attacks

The operation team is supported by the surveillance recon group who locate and prioritize targets.

[srai]

Russia has around 510,000 troops in Ukraine and recruiting 20,000 - 30,000 more every month.

[Deans]

Russia has around 510,000 troops in Ukraine and recruiting 20,000 - 30,000 more every month.

Its not that Russia is adding 20-30000 men each month, though they are recruiting that many.

Some of the new recruits replace casualties. (500/ month KIA and 1000 WIA)
Some replace contract soldiers whose 3 year contract has ended and they want to go home.
Some are conscripts whose mandatory service has ended and they now sign up as volunteers.

[YashG]

^^^
Also 510K is perhaps on the lower side.

I cant remember but I have come across one analysis that put this figure to 600K not including the group N (likely in excess of 50K men).
The same analysis estimated Ukn at 400K now. So russi ais attacking with 1.5 to 1 ratio while a conventional rule requires this to be 3:1 to succeed. The only reason russia is succeeding at this ratio is that their artillery/Air power makes up for the lack of insufficient numerical advantage.

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months. At that point russia would be effectively at 3:1 kind of advantage including the artillery/airpower advantage. The frontline should recede faster than - we could possibly expect a collapse when that happens. September starting. Signs of this will start appearing in next months itself.

The other things that can accelerate in russia's favor:
- Group N is much larger than 50K ukn estimates and russia has more reserves in rear building up.
- Introduction of newer weapons in battle field
- Unseen political turmoil in Ukn
- Reaching breaking point of a significant fraction of unrotated soldiers in Ukn

[YashG]

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1793265709583093798

This is massive. While it decimates half of a building but the shockwave will concuss soldiers upto 2 blocks away in every direction. It will break the will of a forced mobilized soldier by merely witnessing one from a distance.

[srai]

This German idea might take off …

First proposal starts at 70km from Ukraine’s Western borders, then likely slow expansions Eastwards. Don’t be surprised if Ukrainian F-16s fly off from airbases in Poland and Romania for air defense operations of Western parts of Ukraine.

German politicians suggests NATO shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine

…
Defending Ukraine’s airspace from Poland and Romania could establish a safe zone that extends up to 70 kilometers into Ukrainian territory, thereby strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.

…

(CDU) advocated for using Western systems to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine, arguing that this would alleviate the burden on Ukrainian air defenses and enhance their capacity to protect the frontlines. He cited a recent instance in April where US, French, and British forces helped Israel repel a major aerial attack by Iran, demonstrating that such assistance does not automatically involve the aiding countries in the war.
…

[hgupta]

It won’t stop the Russians from attacking those bases that those fighters came from.

[sanman]

There are bigger bangs to worry about.

Russians carrying out tactical nuclear weapons drills

https://youtu.be/Q3K6mYKFrdQ

[Arima]

^^^
Also 510K is perhaps on the lower side.

I cant remember but I have come across one analysis that put this figure to 600K not including the group N (likely in excess of 50K men).
The same analysis estimated Ukn at 400K now. So russi ais attacking with 1.5 to 1 ratio while a conventional rule requires this to be 3:1 to succeed. The only reason russia is succeeding at this ratio is that their artillery/Air power makes up for the lack of insufficient numerical advantage.

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months. At that point russia would be effectively at 3:1 kind of advantage including the artillery/airpower advantage. The frontline should recede faster than - we could possibly expect a collapse when that happens. September starting. Signs of this will start appearing in next months itself.

The other things that can accelerate in russia's favor:
- Group N is much larger than 50K ukn estimates and russia has more reserves in rear building up.
- Introduction of newer weapons in battle field
- Unseen political turmoil in Ukn
- Reaching breaking point of a significant fraction of unrotated soldiers in Ukn

Russia is not conducting big arrow offensive. At best they take 5-6 villages a day, moving under cover of artillery and jamming. So 3:1 ratio is not required here.

[pravula]

It would be localized 3:1 ratio. No need to have an over all 3:1 IMHO

[srai]

We have also seen the limits of what current generation of cheap FVP drones can do. Basically, they are good for 5km radius (maybe up to 10km). Enough distance for mechanized infantry to get close enough to defensive lines.

Whereas 152/155mm artillery radius of action is around 20-40km. Engage enemy targets at longer distances as well as counter-battery fire for the destruction of enemy artillery (i.e. suppression).

Russia has taken advantage of this over almost a year with artillery ammo shortages on the Ukrainian side. They were able to get close enough for infantry mass to bulldoze their way through.

Let’s see how much more progress Russia can make now that Ukraine is receiving enough artillery ammo.

[sanman]

US Pentagon spokesman says it's tracking new Russian satellite on intercept course closing with US spy satellite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atzovgPzkGs

Reminds of this scene with Steve Carrell and John Malkovitch in the Netflix comedy show 'Space Force':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92LDtH2ZB-w


Are Russians muscle-flexing to warn Americans how their satellites are at risk?

I'm noticing that this is coming after launch of Angara, which has greatly improved Russian launch capabilities (ie. if any space war breaks out, the Russians are now in a better position to replace any lost orbital assets)

[srai]

Su-30SM2 with R-37M (300km)


https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/2 ... tegration/

Also, notice that there are no CCM in the above loadout. Purely for long range BVR engagements only. Probably to avoid Ukrainian SAMs as they can’t really get that close to the frontlines.


Maybe something for IAF to think about for its Su-30MKI.

[Deans]

^^^
Also 510K is perhaps on the lower side.

I cant remember but I have come across one analysis that put this figure to 600K not including the group N (likely in excess of 50K men).
The same analysis estimated Ukn at 400K now. So russi ais attacking with 1.5 to 1 ratio while a conventional rule requires this to be 3:1 to succeed. The only reason russia is succeeding at this ratio is that their artillery/Air power makes up for the lack of insufficient numerical advantage.

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months. At that point russia would be effectively at 3:1 kind of advantage including the artillery/airpower advantage. The frontline should recede faster than - we could possibly expect a collapse when that happens. September starting. Signs of this will start appearing in next months itself.

The other things that can accelerate in russia's favor:
- Group N is much larger than 50K ukn estimates and russia has more reserves in rear building up.
- Introduction of newer weapons in battle field
- Unseen political turmoil in Ukn
- Reaching breaking point of a significant fraction of unrotated soldiers in Ukn

Russia can equip a peak of 600k men in combat units. They will probably reach that number in Jul (assuming 6 months to train or retain a
new volunteer). Ukraine had 300,000 men in combat units around Jan 24, which is probably closer to 250,000 today. I see Russia's big offensive
starting when they have a 600 : 200k ratio. That said, the difference between Russian and Ukrainian manpower now is that every Russian is
now a volunteer (most have prior experience), whereas most Ukrainians are forcible mobilized with no prior experience.
There is also a more than 3: 1 advantage in firepower (the weight of artillery shells and bombs) currently.

[Manish_P]

...
A video from the armours bench. Describing a 12 gauge shotgun adaptor for the Russian standard under barrel granade launcher. The video suggests that it's able to kill drones at upto 30 meters.

https://youtu.be/b_JEBj1GknA?si=ChDqr2Ll1RdFsafv

A semi/full auto or even a pump action shotgun might be better than a single shot 'adaptor' mod thing. I get the ease of carrying part, but doubt the odds of a first shot kill against a moving target, under fluid battle conditions.

Russia produces a number of good shotguns. Saiga-12, Vepr-12 for eg. I think those will also be used at unit level, if not already being done

[sanman]

US considering lifting ban on use of US weapons to attack inside Russia! Crazy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6WeJ3A_t9s

[drnayar]

^^^
Also 510K is perhaps on the lower side.

I cant remember but I have come across one analysis that put this figure to 600K not including the group N (likely in excess of 50K men).
The same analysis estimated Ukn at 400K now. So russi ais attacking with 1.5 to 1 ratio while a conventional rule requires this to be 3:1 to succeed. The only reason russia is succeeding at this ratio is that their artillery/Air power makes up for the lack of insufficient numerical advantage.

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months. At that point russia would be effectively at 3:1 kind of advantage including the artillery/airpower advantage. The frontline should recede faster than - we could possibly expect a collapse when that happens. September starting. Signs of this will start appearing in next months itself.

The other things that can accelerate in russia's favor:
- Group N is much larger than 50K ukn estimates and russia has more reserves in rear building up.
- Introduction of newer weapons in battle field
- Unseen political turmoil in Ukn
- Reaching breaking point of a significant fraction of unrotated soldiers in Ukn

Russia is not conducting big arrow offensive. At best they take 5-6 villages a day, moving under cover of artillery and jamming. So 3:1 ratio is not required here.

The Russians have been well prepared for a slow grind ..inch by inch ..even if it takes them a year. There is only so much propoganda western populace can digest as their daily living standards , inflation and reality bites , and in some cases crosses the point of no return.. de industrialisation and islamisation of Europe is very much a reality.

America like that vampire fed of its "best friend" Europe., leaving a shell of it.

[srai]

US considering lifting ban on use of US weapons to attack inside Russia! Crazy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6WeJ3A_t9s

No “red lines” left … other than nuclear weapons.

[sanman]

US considering lifting ban on use of US weapons to attack inside Russia! Crazy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6WeJ3A_t9s

No “red lines” left … other than nuclear weapons.

The Americans are an irresponsible power whose corruption-riddled system has allowed crooks like Nuland to reach sensitive offices which can be used to play hell with the world.
Again, I blame the hydra-headed Israel lobby for spawning Nuland and her fellow NeoCons, who are irresponsible power-drunk warmongers.

Nuland, who began riding a Cold War tiger of her own making, had even extended her animosity towards targeting India.

[YashG]

Russia can equip a peak of 600k men in combat units. They will probably reach that number in Jul (assuming 6 months to train or retain a
new volunteer). Ukraine had 300,000 men in combat units around Jan 24, which is probably closer to 250,000 today. I see Russia's big offensive
starting when they have a 600 : 200k ratio. That said, the difference between Russian and Ukrainian manpower now is that every Russian is
now a volunteer (most have prior experience), whereas most Ukrainians are forcible mobilized with no prior experience.
There is also a more than 3: 1 advantage in firepower (the weight of artillery shells and bombs) currently.

Ukraine started the war with 700-1000K men. In two years they must have added another 200-300K and lost 250-300K an year.
Their casaulty rate has definitely reached now 40K++ and was 30K+ for preceding months.This has rattled Ukns.

But for much of the two years my *guess* would that they were losing 250K / Year . ( I know this is on the lower side)
and possibly 100K have deserted (Arestovich made this claim in one of his videos).



Avg (700K-1000K) + Avg ( 200-300K) - 2 x 250 K - 100K = 500K left.

@deans I have read some of your articles on force numbers but to me 300K sounds rather low. I would assume Ukns have 400K ish soldiers.

For 2:1 advantage and all the airpower/Artillery superiority - I see frontline moving slowly for now.

[srai]

First hand account of the brutal fight that is going on in Ukraine by a Chinese fighting on the Russian side. He mentions Chinese, Cubans, Africans, Nepalis, Indians along with the Russians and dying in droves. Survive for 8hour to 10 hours once sent to the frontlines, especially street fighting. Drones are relentless and no rest between fights day and night … constant.

[YashG]

^^^
8-10 hour is exception not the norm. Plenty of russians have served to full expiration of their contracts and are rotated as well.

[Deans]

Ukraine started the war with 700-1000K men. In two years they must have added another 200-300K and lost 250-300K an year.
Their casaulty rate has definitely reached now 40K++ and was 30K+ for preceding months.This has rattled Ukns.

But for much of the two years my *guess* would that they were losing 250K / Year . ( I know this is on the lower side)
and possibly 100K have deserted (Arestovich made this claim in one of his videos).

Avg (700K-1000K) + Avg ( 200-300K) - 2 x 250 K - 100K = 500K left.

@deans I have read some of your articles on force numbers but to me 300K sounds rather low. I would assume Ukns have 400K ish soldiers.

Our figures are similar. I had said 300k in combat units in Jan 24. Add another 150k in rear & support units, to get 450k.
A lot of rear area functions are being done by NATO (medical care of serious injuries, heavy maintenance, intel) so Ukraine has a higher
percentage of men in combat.

Ukraine today has said that their support units and rear areas are overmanned and some of them are being moved to combat units.
There are also at least 50,000 men who are border guards. They can ideally be used in combat, but that will result in more people fleeing
across the border to Europe.

From the 300k in combat units, there are about 120,000 -150,000 losses this year (dead + seriously wounded + POW).
They have added around 50,000 in new (mostly unwilling) mobilized recruits.
It gives 200-230,000 men in combat units.

[YashG]

^^^
Got it.

[srai]

^^^
8-10 hour is exception not the norm. Plenty of russians have served to full expiration of their contracts and are rotated as well.

That’s that person’s first hand account. He got blown up a few times but was lucky to have survived.

Other foreigners account also verify that they are thrown to the front while Russians sit back further.

[Deans]

^^^
8-10 hour is exception not the norm. Plenty of russians have served to full expiration of their contracts and are rotated as well.

That’s that person’s first hand account. He got blown up a few times but was lucky to have survived.

Other foreigners account also verify that they are thrown to the front while Russians sit back further.

There are about 600,000 Russians at the front and probably 2000 foreigners of all nationalities. There may be an equal number of
people of foreign origin who are now Russian citizens and fighting in the Russians army.
Its not as if `Russians are sitting back'. There is no shortage of volunteers. The problem is getting them properly equipped.

[YashG]

With the recent cleanup of russian military ranks, we could see improvement the effectiveness of russian war machine. Basically Putin is now so safe in his seat that he can afford to ruffle the ranks and have no fear of reprisal.

The effectiveness could play out in several ways:
1. The procurement of speciality equipment that is being produced by industries that dont collude with the ranks will speed up. < There was this news of a certain group producing some useful drone but were not given any orders >
2. The top guys will have more pressure for performance and will trickle down so effective combat leaders will get more role than the usual favorites < One commander responsible for 200 losses was also removed >
3. The quality issues could reduce but this will not be in short term.

There could be more but I assume 1 & 2 and especially 2 might make a short term difference.

[srai]

That’s that person’s first hand account. He got blown up a few times but was lucky to have survived.

Other foreigners account also verify that they are thrown to the front while Russians sit back further.

There are about 600,000 Russians at the front and probably 2000 foreigners of all nationalities. There may be an equal number of
people of foreign origin who are now Russian citizens and fighting in the Russians army.
Its not as if `Russians are sitting back'. There is no shortage of volunteers. The problem is getting them properly equipped.

According to this article, Nepalis alone make up 15,000.

Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight its war. Many returned traumatized. Some never came back

[srai]

^^^
Russia to recruit 16,000 fighters from Middle East for Ukraine war

[srai]

Russia, Central Asia locked in tug of war over Ukraine recruiting

…

Drawing on Central Asian manpower -- including people who are already in Russia -- offers Moscow a way to ease the pressure. Last December, Uzbek-language recruiting ads on Moscow public transport caused a stir, although they were reportedly taken down.

Central Asians end up fighting for Russia in Ukraine for a number of reasons: they hold Russian citizenship and are called up; they are in Russian detention or prison and can buy their freedom by fighting in the war; or they are recruited as mercenaries by Russian private military companies or by businesses to work in occupied territories.

Russia also offers fast-track citizenship to foreigners who join the army and go to fight on the Russian side. Conversely, there are reports of draft legislation that would strip naturalized Russians of their citizenship if they refuse military service.

Over 559,000 Tajik citizens acquired Russian citizenship between 2016 and July 2023 alone, while 650,000 Kyrgyz citizens are estimated to hold Russian passports. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do not allow their citizens to hold dual citizenship, so in theory, people who acquire Russian citizenship lose their Uzbek or Kazakh nationality.
…

Plenty of manpower to draw from that are not natively Russians.

[Deans]

According to this article, Nepalis alone make up 15,000.

Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight its war. Many returned traumatized. Some never came back

The Indian army was recruiting under 2000 Nepali citizens a year for the Gurkha regiment. I think its unlikely that such a large number will
be so easily recruited. it may be possible that many are recruited for low level jobs vacated by Russians going to the front and are not `Gurkhas'
(men from the Gurung, Magar. Tamang and Chettri castes), or they may have been duped.
We saw a similar situation in India where some jobless youth were duped into fighting in Russia and were not IA vets, or trained in soldiering.

[srai]

^^^
Obviously you did not read that article

[Rakesh]

Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Says It’s Using Air-Launched Small Diameter Bombs
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukrai ... eter-bombs
24 May 2024

For the first time, it’s been revealed that Ukraine is using the air-launched GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb, apparently to great effect.

US-made GBU-39 SDB Glide Bomb is Beating Russian Jamming In Ukraine
https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/25/g ... n-ukraine/
25 May 2024

The GBU-39 small-diameter bombs have proved resilient to jamming, with nearly 90% hitting their targets.

[Rakesh]

Ukrainian M1 Abrams Tanks Get Elaborate ‘Cope Cages,’ Soviet Explosive Reactive Armor
https://www.twz.com/land/ukrainian-m1-a ... tive-armor
24 May 2024

New defenses are appearing on Ukraine’s M1 Abrams tanks after at least a quarter of them have been knocked out, primarily by drones.

[Rakesh]

Please click on link below for pictures and videos.

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1793920604183441735 ---> The Ukrainian Army overloaded a Russian air defense battery and was able to hit it in Mospyne, Donetsk region.

Destroyed:
- 96L6 radar
- multiple S-400 launchers

Why are they so close together?

[drnayar]

There is still no effective defense against a drone attack I guess..but the iron dome has proved quite effective in the Israeli context !...


The future of drone warfare would be stealthier drones ... a single stealth mother drone deploying huge number of mini drones ... and saturating air defences by surprise

[Deans]

^^^
Obviously you did not read that article

Sir, I've looked at the possible number of foreign fighters for Russia and did not find justification for 15,000 Nepalis in this article.
The article cited 15,000 (which is widely repeated) but tracked 10.
The Nepali govt says 200 are fighting in Russia. Another published Nepali source says 533. 33 are killed so far, which is broadly what
one expects in a frontline infantry unit after 1 year of combat.
The only Gurkha actually interviewed is a retired soldier (Tamang). That's why I mentioned the Gurkha castes.

https://nepalitimes.com/news/531-nepali ... ssian-army

[Rakesh]

US-made GBU-39 SDB Glide Bomb is Beating Russian Jamming In Ukraine
https://theaviationist.com/2024/05/25/g ... n-ukraine/
25 May 2024

The GBU-39 small-diameter bombs have proved resilient to jamming, with nearly 90% hitting their targets.

US Weapons Accuracy Drops To 10% In Ukraine Due To Jamming
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-w ... ue-jamming
25 May 2024