Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Vayutuvan »

A_Gupta wrote: 21 May 2024 22:44 Will Pappu win Rae Bareilly?
Gazillion dolla korry wonlee.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by chetak »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGEEUA6rTcQ



Nehru resorted to begging after China captured Arunachal's Bombdila: EAM S Jaishankar @ET Roundtable






External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar talks about the Panchsheel era and the 'flaws' and 'errors' of 'Nehru's foreign service'


The video is about 7:42 minutes long
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by disha »

triank wrote: 22 May 2024 03:27 For the first time in history, Satta Baazaar is giving a clear mandate to any party.

Surprisingly 🔥🙌❤️

NDA: 419 seats and
BJP: 389 seats.

Congress and INDI Alliance are performing very badly.

INC: 39 seats
INDI: 106 seats

It will go down further for in the 6the & 7th phases for KhanCross & INDI Alliance.

https://x.com/VIKRAMPRATAPSIN/status/17 ... 98MzA&s=08
The satta bazar predictions is a risk/reward play off. That is NDA getting 419 seats and BJP getting 389 seats is a bet that will fetch a reward. The reverse bet is CONgoons winning 180 seats on their own and dotty alliance getting 272+ and forming government. That is a black swan event and the reward for that is enormously huge. People will bet to hedge for a black swan event. But it is generally a foregone conclusion that this is a losing bet (unless it is a black swan event which no one predicted or able to predict even after 5 phases of polling).

Any bets like, BJP getting ~275+ and NDA getting ~310+ (within a + range of say 10%) is a bet that people will lose marginal money. They get few paise back on the rupee. This is where majority were betting before. That is at the beginning of elections and at around Phase 3. After Phase 4 and 5, the reward (or loss) for BJP getting 350+ seat and NDA crossing 370+ seats is marginal. That is, the median has shifted and more bets are towards NDA getting 390-410 seats and BJP getting 370-390 seats.

A greater risk (or reward) will be people betting BJP getting 400+ and NDA crossing 420+. Or dotty alliance getting restricted to <100 seats and INC getting restricted to <25 seats.

Folks who wear dhotis and shiver within their dhotis and calling it dhoti shiver are looking at the black swan event. Even after Phase 5! Most of the people are around 275+ for BJP and 310+ for NDA. There are some who are moving toward BJP getting 330+ and NDA getting 350+.

Dhoti shiverers must also look at the other side of the equation where the possibility is BJP gets 350+ and ~390-400 for NDA.

Remember, US SD also conceded that Modi will win decisively after Phase 4 itself and called Indian elections as free, fair and Indian democracy as vibrant.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by chetak »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DInW9cD0kdI




What Jaishankar Told America After Kejriwal Arrest And Congress Funds Issue | Nation Wants To Know







The video is about 8:49 minutes long




Union Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar talks to Republic Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami on the western interference before Lok Sabha elections.

Jaishankar reiterates how India gave strong and clear reply to the US and others on their comments about Arvind Kejriwal's arrest and the income tax notice to the Congress party. "We told them it was none of their business," said Jaishankar.

S Jaishankar's Biggest Pre-Election Interview With Arnab Goswami | Nation Wants to Know

Union Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar talks to Republic Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami in his most politically loaded interview yet.

From the Katchatheevu row to Western Media Propaganda against India, Jaishankar addresses all big questions in this interview.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by arshyam »

KL Dubey wrote: 21 May 2024 19:42 ..Barack Obama (Andhra), In fact I hear Obamudu has already prepared his campaign slogan ("obamayya vostaavayya") modeled on a song in an old Raj Kapoor film.
:rotfl: :rotfl:
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by arshyam »

KL Dubey wrote: 22 May 2024 03:43
fanne wrote: 21 May 2024 22:53 With that out of the way, it does not look like a wave election (it could very well be, but only he exit polls people with sharp analytical skills would be knowing).
The term "wave election" seems misused/misunderstood. Two main things:

1) "Wave" occurs either when people strongly want a step change (not incremental), or there is some kind of one-off event (like a sympathy wave) - which propelled a good for nothing fellow like Rajiv Gandhi to 400+ seats in 1984.
2014 was definitely a wave election - after 10 years of soul-sapping UPA and its shenanigans, people were tired enough to give full majority to a single party after 30-odd years. So 282 is bigger than just the arithmetic of 282-273 = 9 above half way mark.
KL Dubey wrote: 22 May 2024 03:432) "Wave" is often not a single sweeping phenomenon across a huge country like Bharat. It has to be seen in statewise context.

Now, LS 2014 was indeed a wave election in most of the country save for the eastern coastal belt (from WB to TN) and also KL. People wanted change in the form of Modi. Even in the eastern coast and KL, vote share of BJP increased.
Not many know this, in 2014, TN gave 18% vote share to NDA, which had only the BJP and other small parties, and AIADMK, DMK and Congress contested separately.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Deans »

A_Gupta wrote: 22 May 2024 05:47 > Put another way, the more Modi closes the gap between his approval rating (which is well into the 70%+) and his vote share (which is "only" 45-50%), the more seats he will win.

Very nicely stated.
The corollary to this is what we should be concerned about.
In every state assembly election, the BJP's vote share falls by 4-10% compared to their LS vote share.
Where BJP is the incumbent, the difference between BJP and the no 2 is much less than in the LS.
In the strongest BJP state, Gujarat, they got 52.5% of vote in the last assembly elections. With a united opposition and
a 5% anti incumbency swing away, BJP can lose the state.

It is Modi ji that is giving the party the incremental vote share that results in an extra 100 LS seats.
At the state level, people do not see a major difference in the quality of governance between BJP and the alternative.
(my state Karnataka is an example).
Last edited by Deans on 22 May 2024 16:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by A_Gupta »

> The corollary to this is what we should be concerned about.

Yes, and without a good set of states working cooperatively with the center on all the Concurrent subjects, that will hold back progress.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Prem Kumar »

Deans wrote: 22 May 2024 08:38
The corollary to this is what we should be concerned about.
In every state assembly election, the BJP's vote share falls by 4-10% compared to their LS vote share.
Where BJP is the incumbent, the difference between BJP and the no 2 is much less than in the LS.
In the strongest BJP state, Gujarat, they got 52.5% of vote in the last assembly elections.

It is Modi ji that is giving the party the incremental vote share that results in an incremental 100 LS seats.
At the state level, people do not see a major difference in the quality of governance between BJP and the alternative.
(my state Karnataka is an example).
Well said. Ever since the 2014 wave, Modi Ji has been roped in for even municipal elections. Many are riding on his coat-tails. Though BJP is growing, a significant % of the growth is a Presidential-style referendum for him. Many might switch back to someone else once Modi demits office

1) It shows the importance of leadership. Another example is TN: BJP has been floundering for decades till Annamalai stepped in
2) Its also a sign of weakness that such leadership is absent in a large # of constituencies. Heck, even many State CMs wouldn't be CMs if Modi had not swept the assembly elections for them. The drab Gujarat CMs post-Modi are a case in point
3) Importance of narrative building & institutional control: you can't just win by accomplishments alone (at least it wont work each time). You need to be the default choice at a subconscious level. Example: the brainwashing of Muslims, caste-groups or Dravidoids who cannot be swayed by any amount of Vikas. Its important that BJP/RSS capture this space amongst Hindus. But they are very, very far from doing so, mainly because they themselves seek the approval of the Liberal establishment, don't know how to control institutions/build-narratives, have a very misguided idea of what's critical for our civilizational survival & are too meek/opportunistic to fight the tough battles on behalf of Hindus/Hinduism

BJP has its work cut out. On the leadership front, they have made a good start by inducting fresh faces in Chattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan. Chattisgarh is working out well but Rajasthan seems to be floundering. But its good that these experiments are done. More are needed to identify and groom leaders

Its sad that a non-dynastic party like BJP has a much higher bar compared to 3rd rate scums like Udhayanidhi, Akhilesh Yadav etc who get a shoo-in just because they are the sons of CMs or belong to a particular caste.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by williams »

Deans wrote: 22 May 2024 08:38
A_Gupta wrote: 22 May 2024 05:47 > Put another way, the more Modi closes the gap between his approval rating (which is well into the 70%+) and his vote share (which is "only" 45-50%), the more seats he will win.

Very nicely stated.
The corollary to this is what we should be concerned about.
In every state assembly election, the BJP's vote share falls by 4-10% compared to their LS vote share.
Where BJP is the incumbent, the difference between BJP and the no 2 is much less than in the LS.
In the strongest BJP state, Gujarat, they got 52.5% of vote in the last assembly elections.

It is Modi ji that is giving the party the incremental vote share that results in an incremental 100 LS seats.
At the state level, people do not see a major difference in the quality of governance between BJP and the alternative.
(my state Karnataka is an example).
That is a concern Prem ji. BJP needs young and decisive leadership in the states. It will happen in time is the hope.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Prem Kumar »

Good post fanne!

Though there may be no need to dhoti-shiver, I agree with your assertion that, either planned (guerilla warfare instead of frontal attack) or unplanned (organic), the election seems less of a referendum and more of a local-issues one. Which goes against the conventional thinking that The Indian voter is smart to know the difference between Assembly & Lok Sabha elections

BJP has to fight a lot of skirmishes across different geographies/terrains where the enemy has local advantages. Plus complacency for the home team. Not sure what the impact is on the results

Speaking for myself, I will not take anything for granted. Even if a 2004-redux does not happen, a diminished victory (BJP getting less than 303 or even 272) will have a ripple effect on their confidence, policy-making, lessons-learnt (usually the wrong ones) & will embolden the BIF forces

Praying to the Almighty that it does not come to that
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Dilbu »

BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

Request to all BRF mauleners and nanha-mujahids.

"Bliss to hold firmly on to your chaddi's and lungi's in preparation for 4th June. Either we will do lungi dance, or we will have to tigthen lungi's and prepare for the next round.Most importantly, have faith in Dilbuji"
Dilbu wrote: 22 May 2024 12:33 BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
This is not a 100 m dash but a marathon to reclaim our civilization. We have to deprogram a lot of minds yet. Beyond BRF, there is a whole world out there, who need to come to the same realization. We, BRFites are not the majority. Till the time that at least a 40% to 50% of India's populace thinks the way we do, we will be in the perpetual dhoti shibber mode. Our objective should be to spread the ideas discussed on BRF among the general populace. Typically, the young.

Williams-ji made an astute observation.
williams wrote: 22 May 2024 10:16 ...
That is a concern Prem ji. BJP needs young and decisive leadership in the states. It will happen in time is the hope.
It is true. There are not enough firebrand BJP leaders in the age group of 40-55. Basically, the cohort of Indians born between early 70's and mid 80's grew up at a time where pop-culture, economic hassles, Mandal commission, and dominance of foreign influence at highest decision circles in India, built a vacuum for Indian thought. And I observe the same among GenZ (who were too young to see the disaster of UPA era, who take post 2014 India as granted, who are more open to influence through newer media and don't realizeare uncomfortable with why we oldies talk of Sanatana Dharma). These are the people we need to win over.

So learned maulaners, mujahids, raakit mards and khuspoos of BRF, hold steady. If you have to do anything in the meantime, focus on getting the voters out to vote. I just helped a friend to fly back to India to cast his vote on 1st June.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by chetak »

chetak wrote: 21 May 2024 16:52 the wokes have arrived .... :mrgreen:



‘Realisation is same as jail’: Delhi HC reduces life sentence of 5 JeM terrorists to 10 years, cites Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s ‘Crime and Punishment’


Quoting Dostoevsky, HC reduces sentence of 5 men accused of aiding JeM

The bench further said, “We refer to a quote by Fyodor Dostoevsky, the author of 'Crime and Punishment'... Dostoevsky writes that 'if he has a conscience he will suffer for his mistake...”

“The man who has a conscience suffers whilst acknowledging his sin… Dostoevsky writes that ‘if he has a conscience he will suffer for his mistake; that will be punishment — as well as the prison’.”


https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... m-9341610/


‘National security paramount’: SC cancels bail granted by Madras HC to 8 PFI members caught with photos of RSS leaders


looks like eminences in dilli do not read Fyodor Dostoevsky, the Russian novelist :mrgreen:
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Sachin »

^^^ The biggest problem is that judges have wide discretionary powers and also rights to interpret laws. That is where the problem lies. Where as judiciary should just understand what is the written law (passed by legislature) and then evaluate the evidence and give the verdict. They cannot be like school head masters giving arbitrary decisions. Perhaps introducing mandatory punishments, or denial of bails for certain offences via legislation is the only way out.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by ramana »

Chetak, SC judges read Oscar Wilde and proclaim #EverySinnerHasAFuture.

Both HC and SC are guided by fiction and not Indian laws.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by VinodTK »

Agniveer issue takes centre stage in poll campaign in Haryana, Congress corners BJP
:
:
The issue is being flagged by the Oposition parties, mainly the Congress, at their public meetings and election rallies. Former Chief Minister and the leader of the Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda has promised the Congress would scrap the Agniveer scheme and restore the regular recruitment system as before.

Congress Lok Sabha candidates Deepender Singh Hooda (Rohtak) and Rao Dan Singh (Bhiwani-Mahendragarh) have also been attacking the BJP government over the issue.

The BJP leaders have found themselves in a tight spot in view of the widespread resentment prevailing amongst the state youth regarding the issue.
:
:
Army does not want Agniveer scheme, INDIA bloc will throw it into dustbin: Rahul Gandhi
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Hriday »

Deans wrote: 22 May 2024 08:38
A_Gupta wrote: 22 May 2024 05:47

In the strongest BJP state, Gujarat, they got 52.5% of vote in the last assembly elections. With a united opposition and
a 5% anti incumbency swing away, BJP can lose the state.

It is Modi ji that is giving the party the incremental vote share that results in an extra 100 LS seats.
At the state level, people do not see a major difference in the quality of governance between BJP and the alternative.
(my state Karnataka is an example).
Sorry for off topic. Deans, a request to you. Can you write an essay or small book on the subject of economic literacy ? I am willing to support by buying or direct payment as part of crowd funding.

If I remember correctly you once said that a few govt related people took note of several military and economic warfare suggestions from you. With an IIM background it will be easy for you to write this.

As happened in Delhi and Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh (OPS issue) voters think that freebies are harmless. Most of new BJP voters voted solely on the basis of consistent delivery of basic needs such as house, toilet, water etc; not because of the understanding of economics. It means in next elections they may get tempted to vote for bigger freebies from other parties. Even middle class people of India lacks economic literacy.


One main problem is that crucial economic data and the links/sources are all over the place. For eg, I once saw a suggestion that UPA followed an outdated way of calculating GDP so as to give a false impression of high GDP numbers. But I don't know how to find a summary with links. Also in my quick searches I couldn't find proper links that presents the correct consumer inflation figures of UPA and NDA years. Wikipedia said CPI started from NDA rule in 2014, before that it was WPI.

Can you write on the following headers with links?

60 years Congress rule vs 10 year BJP rule on the below parameters.
1.GDP
2. Inflation
3. Jobs
4. Credit availability for common man.
5. Houses built.
etc..

Also include the explanations on
1.
Idea of wealth creation. Even middle class people will be surprised to know that net wealth can be increased by routine economic activities, even if no exports are involved.

2.
How to tell common man that infrastructure such as roads built on distant places that are not directly beneficial to him are essential for him in a language that he can understand ?

In summary your essay/book could be a very popular guide book for people to understand basic economics with real world examples and to tell them where to look for the sources/links to get an update of the economic activities of India. All these will ultimately compell an average voter to select a party based on the sound economic policies.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Yagnasri »

Agniveer is a must to reduce the huge pension bill we have at present. It provides huge trained manpower to police and para-military forces. It also provides huge trained reserves. But upsetting a lot of others who have their honest reasons. But people like Pappu are looking to divide the nation on this.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by chetak »

VinodTK wrote: 22 May 2024 17:54 Agniveer issue takes centre stage in poll campaign in Haryana, Congress corners BJP
:
:
The issue is being flagged by the Oposition parties, mainly the Congress, at their public meetings and election rallies. Former Chief Minister and the leader of the Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda has promised the Congress would scrap the Agniveer scheme and restore the regular recruitment system as before.

Congress Lok Sabha candidates Deepender Singh Hooda (Rohtak) and Rao Dan Singh (Bhiwani-Mahendragarh) have also been attacking the BJP government over the issue.

The BJP leaders have found themselves in a tight spot in view of the widespread resentment prevailing amongst the state youth regarding the issue.
:
:
Army does not want Agniveer scheme, INDIA bloc will throw it into dustbin: Rahul Gandhi

VinodTK ji,


The BIF do not want young, fit, and military trained, citizens who are available at short notice in case of emergencies.

The riff raff and scum that the BIF will unleash on the streets when the time comes, will not be able to face off with these guys

which only means that the GoI is several steps ahead of the bene primario (primary asset) puppet and his putrid masters

Whereas hooda is rallying his caste vote banks
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Tanaji »

ramana wrote: 22 May 2024 16:30 Chetak, SC judges read Oscar Wilde and proclaim #EverySinnerHasAFuture.

Both HC and SC are guided by fiction and not Indian laws.
Ajeet Bharti refers to the same thing a few months ago: Indian hizzoners are so vain that they regard judgements as a platform to show off their eruditeness and a way to show how philosophical and well-read they are. This comes at a cost of actual justice and relevance to law and moreover what they quote is so far removed from what the common Indian can relate to that it becomes comical at times. One only has to peruse some long-winded judgments from hizzoners of SC and HC…
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by chetak »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njh9G6OOEjc




Storm Over Nehru Papers In India | Why Not Make Historic Records Public ....








The video is about 27:37 minutes long
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Anujan »

Rahul Gandhi has given a speech that Kejriwal got a bail, but Soren did not because Soren is ST

Three observations

1. He wants Kejri back in Jail? His own alliance partner? :rotfl:
2. What does the court think about this?
3. He is going nuts, and the repercussions will not be good.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by A_Gupta »

IT Department’s huge tax bill for Congress will be collected after the election. Rs 3567 crores I think.

——

On a different topic - India’s electorate was 912 million in 2019 and 970 million in 2024. While everyone has focused on percentage turnout, no one has talked of the effect of this average of additional 1.1 lakh voters per constituency. Any of the gurus here have any info?
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by drnayar »

Anujan wrote: 22 May 2024 21:41 Rahul Gandhi has given a speech that Kejriwal got a bail, but Soren did not because Soren is ST

Three observations

1. He wants Kejri back in Jail? His own alliance partner? :rotfl:
2. What does the court think about this?
3. He is going nuts, and the repercussions will not be good.
tbh i think pappu smokes / snorts some potent stuff before public speeches .. so he is in his own dream land where his "logic" and "understanding" is so perfect that he has to teach others :rotfl:
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Vayutuvan »

ramana wrote: 22 May 2024 16:30 Chetak, SC judges read Oscar Wilde and proclaim #EverySinnerHasAFuture.

Both HC and SC are guided by fiction and not Indian laws.
Codicil: Every saint has a past.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Vayutuvan »

A_Gupta wrote: 22 May 2024 22:02 IT Department’s huge tax bill for Congress will be collected after the election. Rs 3567 crores I think.
I wonder why they are waiting. They should start the collection process right away.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by fanne »

To take my analysis further, this is what I would say. BJP/MODI do not have any state level anti-incumbency (2004, each state voted separately). There are however seat level ambush where BJP maybe losing some seats.
In Punjab and AP (in spite of TDP alliance) - these states have been traditionally anti BJP/Modi -But BJP may get 1-3 seats in Punjab and unless sabotaged by TDP, some 1-4 seats in AP.
There is very pro BJP wave in WB, Orissa, Telangana, TN and kerala. In WB and Orissa that may translate into 6-12 seats and in TN and Kerela anywhere from 0-5. BJP may also gain some in UP (but may lose some seats it won last time)
It will be losing seats (not many but few in each states)-RJ, Bihar, MH (maybe), Karnataka and status quo in rest.
I think BJP started LS with 320 setas, and it is losing some little number here and there in many states. In the worst case, I am hoping and praying that it will be above 272, my guess 290 least, best can be at least 20-30 seats more.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by A_Gupta »

I would go with Dubeyji's statement that PM Modi is at a 70-75% approval rating, and it all depends on how much he can convert that into votes.

In fact, in the Pew Research Poll published August 29, 2023, PM Modi had a 79% favorable view among Indians including 55% with a very favorable view (emphasis is from Pew)
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023 ... countries/

IF that 55% with the very favorable view vote accordingly, that alone gives PM Modi a big win.

As the Washington Post noted in mid-April:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... men-youth/
Indians between the ages of 18 and 24 prefer Modi by about five to six percentage points more than do other age groups, according to Lokniti data.
Note that there is an average of 1.1 lakh new voters per constituency, as I have noted previously.

The WaPo article also notes that (1) women's votes now begin to exceed men's votes in recent state elections and (2) women favored the BJP by 2 percentage points over men.

The outcome is dependent on the favorable-view-converted-into-votes. Now it certainly is true that the pro-Modi majority (the 55% noted above) is not uniformly distributed across the constituencies. Then voter complacency/apathy, local issues, local identity politics and old loyalties can also drain away the vote.

IMO, the seats where the BJP won by large margins in 2019, it will very likely win again.
Where the BJP won by a small margin or lost by a small margin in 2019, there the odds favor the BJP in 2024.
Whee the BJP lost by large margins in 2019, there the INDI Alliance has the odds in its favor; but given PM Modi's extraordinary popularity, a few upsets are possible.
vijayk
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by vijayk »

https://x.com/savvyasaachi/status/1793265534127009926
5 BIG STATES and BJP AS ON DATE

No Numbers for the time being, but indicators are here.This is not an Exit Poll

(⬆️- Nominally Up, ⬆️⬆️- Notable Increase ⬇️-Nominally Down, ⬇️⬇️- Notable Decrease, ↔️- Expecting No Changes/Status Quo)

UP-⬆️⬆️

MH-⬆️

WB-⬆️⬆️⬆️

BH-⬇️

TN-⬆️⬆️
ramana
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by ramana »

One hot-button issue this election is Muslim reservations in the OBC quota.

The Constitution specifically does not mention religion-based quotas.


Congress has implemented Muslim reservations in the OBC quota in Karnataka and Telangana.
TMC Jihadidi has implemented Muslim reservations in OBC quoat since 2010. The Calcutta High Court just struck that down. She declares she won't follow the judgment.
Now what other states have implemented this stealthily?
TN, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh?
TDP CBN has promised 4% Muslim reservations under the OBC quota.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Deans »

Hriday wrote: 22 May 2024 19:22
Sorry for off topic. Deans, a request to you. Can you write an essay or small book on the subject of economic literacy ? I am willing to support by buying or direct payment as part of crowd funding.

If I remember correctly you once said that a few govt related people took note of several military and economic warfare suggestions from you. With an IIM background it will be easy for you to write this.
There is certainly a need for voters to have economic literacy (and literacy in other areas) though I do not believe myself qualified to write
on the subject. The larger point however is that this data can be googled if one wants it. If someone does not want to look up free data, they
are not going to buy a book. In any case a large proportion of people who need this data are functionally illiterate.

The principle behind my blog is that I cover topis that are my hobby (not my profession), where I have original analysis, based on data and
history, to present an angle not covered by the mainstream media. In the process I learn about the topic through my research. Satisfaction comes if I see that my view turned out to be correct.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by SRajesh »

Ramanaji
The issue of affirmative action has become like the 370 deemed as inviolable and accepted as sacrosanct.
Like the old Kannada saying " hot Ghee one not able to swallow nor would like to spit" no party worth its electoral bonds would like to abolish it!
Strike down the religion based one then the chorus will start about Sachar committee report and a demand for more grants for things like 'Madrasa' which would teach amongst all other good things : reason for otherness and to stop assimilation.
I am not pro or against any religion/caste/creed but this act of forever affirmative action should stop
Question is who will bell the cat??
Just as a scenario what would happened if say one implements a quota act of 50% reservation who includes all those in need (without sub dividing it amongst various groups) and 50% open!! will that stop people like Pappu creating trouble.
I doubt it. Amongst all other things affirmative actions has become another toolkit for BIFs to constantly stir the pot.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Sachin »

Yagnasri wrote:Agniveer is a must to reduce the huge pension bill we have at present.
chetak wrote:The BIF do not want young, fit, and military trained, citizens who are available at short notice in case of emergencies.
24 years back, when BR and BRF came into existence I would not have said this. Because I was naive to believe that every one joined the forces out of patriotism 8). Today I understand that there is a sizeable population who only considers soldiering as another sarkaari naukri. There may be a mad rush to join the forces by folks from PJ and HA, one reason could be that being border areas they will be actually posted near to their home towns as well. So Pappu Ghandi & Co are targetting these folks who want to join Army as a sarkaari naukri with pension scheme. That is go back to the 1960s and 1970s.

I don't think there would be wars like the World Wars where truck loads of soldiers were just pushed in to kill or be killed. So maintaining a very large army (with no modernisation and only lots of people) may be counter productive for various reasons - huge amounts of pension being one.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by Dilbu »

BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
triank
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by triank »

Vayutuvan wrote: 22 May 2024 05:51
triank wrote: 22 May 2024 00:32 https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xGejCJft9JY
# Sanatani children with 'communist' parents j sai deepak shorts
Is there a longer version or rather a link to a video from which this has been excerpted? TIA
sorry, couldnt find the full speech video.
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by drnayar »

Sachin wrote: 23 May 2024 11:24
Yagnasri wrote:Agniveer is a must to reduce the huge pension bill we have at present.
chetak wrote:The BIF do not want young, fit, and military trained, citizens who are available at short notice in case of emergencies.
24 years back, when BR and BRF came into existence I would not have said this. Because I was naive to believe that every one joined the forces out of patriotism 8). Today I understand that there is a sizeable population who only considers soldiering as another sarkaari naukri. There may be a mad rush to join the forces by folks from PJ and HA, one reason could be that being border areas they will be actually posted near to their home towns as well. So Pappu Ghandi & Co are targetting these folks who want to join Army as a sarkaari naukri with pension scheme. That is go back to the 1960s and 1970s.

I don't think there would be wars like the World Wars where truck loads of soldiers were just pushed in to kill or be killed. So maintaining a very large army (with no modernisation and only lots of people) may be counter productive for various reasons - huge amounts of pension being one.
its more about training discipline and giving a sense of patriotism and honor to the ones who undergo that training , i think the trainers would make sure they do :). .. once out of the army these agniveers would provide a pool of disciplined and trained workforce for various security and other establishments both governement and private.. as some one mentioned the new generations need to inculcate a sense of patriotism and honor . , stem the vitriol sprayed by BIF

you dont need a million strong army but a force that can be called upon when needed
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by SRajesh »

Chetakji
I dont know if you have bought any katakat masala( not sure as its pakistani delicacy)
Main ingredients in it : Heart, Kidney and Brain (Which Mr Pappuji is missing) :rotfl:
Name is derived (as I am told by some of my pakistani colleagues) is because of the sound that the chopper makes whilst chopping the offal. :lol:
Generally considered a poor man's street food delicacy!!
I wonder if Pappuji has ever visited that site for some tasting
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Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

Post by fanne »

If you go with Savyasachi analysis (his assessment can itself be wrong, but lets assume it is correct) and taking 302 as base.

BJP will take some 5-7 more seats in UP, keep it MH total or may increase by 1-3 setas, WB should be again 2-10 seats more (subject to fairness etc.),
lose 1-5 in Bihar and gain 0-5 in TN.
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