The timing question. Please vote.
The question might look simple but the answer requires knowledge of diverse subjects: Geopolitics, internal politics of China, India, US, and Russia.
Add weather.
Relative power of China and India. How much can be brought to bear for the aggression?
Tactical vs strategic factors
China poll- Timing question.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
From 2017, the level of escalation from the Chinese side is steadily increasing. I fear before the China-US war, situation might blow up this October on our side. Especially the Ladakh protests, huge levels of force, rare statement from Modi about China etc etc. All of these point to ominous signs of a upcoming war. Either this October or next April.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
just to elaborate on the unlikely option that nobody else has expanded on till now; the next in-charge will be more business first than xjp, with xjp hopefully for the chinis would have solved the problem of inequal wealth distribution by then; next stage of the chapter is dhando again, probably not on steroids as in the past because of dwindling demographics, but this time with more equitable share for everyone involved, imo, xjp is more focused on the civic admin facet for the nonce
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Voted unlikely.
My reasons are as follows.
While I have the firm belief that the Indian military will not be able to handle a PRC that is likely to emerge by the late 2040s. In the absence of a substantial increase in Indian airforce and naval capacity. IAF needs to grow to between 220 to 240 squadrons. The Navy needs to have at least 240 to 300 major combatants and submarines. Including 6 to 8 Aircraft carriers.
However, right now, the Indian Airforce coupled with the Indian army has sufficient capacity to deal with the PRC currently and in the near term, that is the next 5 to 10 years.
My reasons are as follows.
While I have the firm belief that the Indian military will not be able to handle a PRC that is likely to emerge by the late 2040s. In the absence of a substantial increase in Indian airforce and naval capacity. IAF needs to grow to between 220 to 240 squadrons. The Navy needs to have at least 240 to 300 major combatants and submarines. Including 6 to 8 Aircraft carriers.
However, right now, the Indian Airforce coupled with the Indian army has sufficient capacity to deal with the PRC currently and in the near term, that is the next 5 to 10 years.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
It depends. Assuming Bharat has not opened any fronts on its western border voluntarily or involuntarily, the risk of Chinese initiating a front appears highly unlikely. And, definitely unlikely under 3rd Modi term or at least the time frame in the poll.
Fireworks against Taiwan appear likely between 2025-27, could this prompt a border conflict with Bharat? This is a possible.
Keeping military comparisons and preparedness aside for a minute, a growing Bharat as it stands today, is worth more to the Chinese than a pi$$ed off Bharat.
Fireworks against Taiwan appear likely between 2025-27, could this prompt a border conflict with Bharat? This is a possible.
Keeping military comparisons and preparedness aside for a minute, a growing Bharat as it stands today, is worth more to the Chinese than a pi$$ed off Bharat.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
For those voting unlikely did any of you expect 2020 Galwan or 2021 Tawang? It has been a long four year warm LAC.
If it's unlikely why we see the large deployment along the LAC?
We should expect its a given, as
- Both are rising powers and
- The dynamics from China point of view are different wrt India and Taiwan.
If it's unlikely why we see the large deployment along the LAC?
We should expect its a given, as
- Both are rising powers and
- The dynamics from China point of view are different wrt India and Taiwan.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I purposely put simple options of near term to force thinking and no option to change the vote..
I am glad for those who voted. Thanks for the participation unlike the Lookey Lou fence sitters. Many of the latter give bhashan about voter tturnout.
I am glad for those who voted. Thanks for the participation unlike the Lookey Lou fence sitters. Many of the latter give bhashan about voter tturnout.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I think that a China attack on India is a bad move for China, strategically speaking. But if China is so inclined, the sooner the more chances of getting a win, IMO.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I believe China will attack India, not if but when. It can happen as soon as this year (btw happened during Galwan already, perhaps it was proof of concept), or any future years. Most likely time will be Oct, November, ideal for war as at that time, it is not cold enough and no monsoon related issues. Winter snow makes December to March non ideal and before July/August, because of monsoon and flooding in the mountainous region, tough for holding land and any logistics.
We must and should prepare for this. For China to breakout (to become a great power or even keep its current position), it needs some wins. Two candidates Taiwan and India can give it to them. Taiwan makes more sense,but it has fear of all of west ganging up and defeating it. Attack on India does not bring same benefits as Taiwan, but most likely it can collude with TP and attack us, less risk though less return. West may in fact instigate China to attack India so that they can cut both of them to size (like Ukraine/Russia, both lose and west wins).
I don't know where is China's leader psyche - if they still believe in middle kingdom syndrome, as in they have God given mandate to rule the world, certainly the neighbor pesky Indians (same like TSP pure land, or Khalis which also mean pure or with west mandate, as White Man's burden - All stem from the same source - We are chosen people, others are no better than cattle).
We must and should prepare for this. For China to breakout (to become a great power or even keep its current position), it needs some wins. Two candidates Taiwan and India can give it to them. Taiwan makes more sense,but it has fear of all of west ganging up and defeating it. Attack on India does not bring same benefits as Taiwan, but most likely it can collude with TP and attack us, less risk though less return. West may in fact instigate China to attack India so that they can cut both of them to size (like Ukraine/Russia, both lose and west wins).
I don't know where is China's leader psyche - if they still believe in middle kingdom syndrome, as in they have God given mandate to rule the world, certainly the neighbor pesky Indians (same like TSP pure land, or Khalis which also mean pure or with west mandate, as White Man's burden - All stem from the same source - We are chosen people, others are no better than cattle).
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I voted "Unlikely". China is already trying to "attack" India through multiple avenues. I assume the poll is referring to a full-blown military offensive, not "squatter" operations like Galwan or border skirmishes with sticks and spears. Those may/will keep happening.
An actual military offensive is unlikely. The PLA is a paper tiger which is meant for propaganda and intimidation, not for actual war fighting (and especially not against large and well-prepared adversaries).
An actual military offensive is unlikely. The PLA is a paper tiger which is meant for propaganda and intimidation, not for actual war fighting (and especially not against large and well-prepared adversaries).
Re: China poll- Timing question.
China has major problems right now because of the public mood. The real estate crisis means there are tons of empty buildings and everyone who invested their life savings in buying flats is losing their property value. At the same time people who paid in advance for flats are unlikely to see them built. Another cascade is that the subcontractors of big builders haven't been paid and won't get new business.
Now one theory is that countries go to war to divert attention from domestic troubles. A war with India doesn't serve this purpose because
a) your average Zhou has zero emotional connection / knowledge about India, so nobody will really get enthused by it. Think about the ruling party in India capturing territory in Antarctica before elections to swing the voters to its side. That's about how likely and exciting this scenario is for Zhou.
b) Victory is neither certain nor definable. So let's assume as the Chinese planner, I successfully manage to capture 50 sq km of territory. Can I wave the flag and shout mission accomplished? Average Zhou will ask me what about South Tibet. I try to capture South Tibet. What are the chances of success?
c) There is an alternative that will get Zhou excited, victory is much more likely, and will write history and rejuvenate the Chinese nation. As XJP do I want my name in the history books as the guy who captured Demchok or the guy who unified the motherland by taking over Taiwan?
d) CCP has one more target that is even more attractive, with a 100% chance of victory. That target is Zhou. China spends at least a few hundred billion $ on internal security. If Zhou creates unrest, maybe killing a few Zhous will get the average Zhou in line at a much lower cost?
Wars are trade-offs. Attacking India would mean delaying Taiwan. As XJP, not a good option. Mao is not remembered for 1962 in China, most average Chinese don't even know about it. The Korea war was a lot more emotional for them.
Of course, grey gone tactics will probably continue but well below the threshold of a hot war.
Now one theory is that countries go to war to divert attention from domestic troubles. A war with India doesn't serve this purpose because
a) your average Zhou has zero emotional connection / knowledge about India, so nobody will really get enthused by it. Think about the ruling party in India capturing territory in Antarctica before elections to swing the voters to its side. That's about how likely and exciting this scenario is for Zhou.
b) Victory is neither certain nor definable. So let's assume as the Chinese planner, I successfully manage to capture 50 sq km of territory. Can I wave the flag and shout mission accomplished? Average Zhou will ask me what about South Tibet. I try to capture South Tibet. What are the chances of success?
c) There is an alternative that will get Zhou excited, victory is much more likely, and will write history and rejuvenate the Chinese nation. As XJP do I want my name in the history books as the guy who captured Demchok or the guy who unified the motherland by taking over Taiwan?
d) CCP has one more target that is even more attractive, with a 100% chance of victory. That target is Zhou. China spends at least a few hundred billion $ on internal security. If Zhou creates unrest, maybe killing a few Zhous will get the average Zhou in line at a much lower cost?
Wars are trade-offs. Attacking India would mean delaying Taiwan. As XJP, not a good option. Mao is not remembered for 1962 in China, most average Chinese don't even know about it. The Korea war was a lot more emotional for them.
Of course, grey gone tactics will probably continue but well below the threshold of a hot war.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
In order to stay in power, President Xi needs a short and quick victory. He cannot pull that off with Taiwan but he can certainly against India in the area of Bhutan or outlying areas of Arunachal Pradesh. It is the symbolic victory he needs to burnish the image of a superpower standing over a major foe in victory.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I voted Oct 24.
* Needs a distraction from economic issues and delay some of the new investments in India
* US election and distraction with Ukraine and West Asia
* Needs a distraction from economic issues and delay some of the new investments in India
* US election and distraction with Ukraine and West Asia
Re: China poll- Timing question.
In hindsight, we should have seen Galwan coming. From 2017 crisis, there has been a steady increase in border incursions. Especially after August 5, 2019, China ramped up its Sabre rattling. I went back to see recently if Chinese had conducted a large scale military exercises in 2020 or 2019 in Tibet. To no one's surprise, they had indeed conducted a large scale military exercise in Tibet in January of 2020. Even in May of 2020, there were signs of something sinister in the minds of the Chinese.ramana wrote: ↑23 May 2024 17:09 For those voting unlikely did any of you expect 2020 Galwan or 2021 Tawang? It has been a long four year warm LAC.
If it's unlikely why we see the large deployment along the LAC?
We should expect its a given, as
- Both are rising powers and
- The dynamics from China point of view are different wrt India and Taiwan.
This year no such exercise has happened. All their focus since last 2 years has been on Taiwan. But despite that, the numbers of troops, military construction etc etc is steadily increasing. There is a ongoing military build up at our borders. The talks are going nowhere to resolve the sensitive situation and disengage for the last 4 years. I feel the Chinese have no intention of de escalating in near future. Chinese have ramped up there disinformation campaign in India too and I think they are involved in the recent Ladakh protests too.
Either this year or in 2025, their border infrastructure will be complete along with their military restructuring and modernization. The post covid recovery will also be complete giving Xi and his team complete picture of where their economy stands. I expect some electoral setbacks to Modi in 2025 in state elections along with a new US govt not even a year into office (if trump comes back). Conditions will be very suitable for the Chinese to launch into military adventure on our borders.
I am also anticipating that China will attack Taiwan before the 20th National congress of CCP in 2027. With that in mind, I feel the war on our borders will happen in 2025 and Chinese will keep a 2 year buffer period between Indo-China war and the Taiwan war.
Chinese perceive us as weak, indecisive, bound by 'democratic chains'. They think of as a irritant and below them. Just like our political leadership and some in military circles after the 1962 war created a myth of 10ft China man, I have a feeling their political and military leadership might also be under the delusion that India is weak militarily regardless of what happened in Galwan. With the current culture of CCP bearing down heavily on its foreign policy and military, this view is going to get stronger and stronger. The Chinese don't understand us and probably never will in near future. This makes the situation highly volatile and increases the risk of Chinese adventurism manifold.
Lastly, CCP and in extension the Chinese govt is very insecure at its core. This insecurity comes from the lack of legitimacy derived from people. This insecurity is heavily present in every sphere of Chinese life post 1949. So before they mount any big operation in Taiwan, they are going to try to settle the LAC to ensure India doesn't interfere in their Taiwan operation. Their minds cannot perceive a peaceful India which would sit in the sidelines in case of a US-China greater war near Taiwan. Their insecurity won't let them. So I expect trouble to start either in October of this year or in October of next year.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Why will China fight a war? To control or to influence? It cannot definitely do the former, that is hoping to cut into vast swathes of India and not trigger a nuclear war. So it is most likely the later. In 1962, Nehru was cut down to size. Galwan was to cut down Modi to size, but that did not happen.
2024/2025 is too early for China to try to cut Modi and India down to size again. The best option is then 2027.
I have put October of 2027 as the most likely scenario. Several factors at play, US Elections., War in Ukraine., Israel-Hamas conflict and the manner in which the ME aligns., The NOKO-SOKO issue and the situation in Japan as well as ASEAN. And Taiwan. Of course, India is the major factor.
Then there is the economics of it all. The economic growth engine is shifting away from China. Partly due to their own over engineering.
In all of the above, China will perceive loss of influence and may go overt, just like Pakis did in 1965.
China will continue to sabre rattle on Taiwan. But not overtly attack. A fractured polity in India is the best option for China.
2024/2025 is too early for China to try to cut Modi and India down to size again. The best option is then 2027.
I have put October of 2027 as the most likely scenario. Several factors at play, US Elections., War in Ukraine., Israel-Hamas conflict and the manner in which the ME aligns., The NOKO-SOKO issue and the situation in Japan as well as ASEAN. And Taiwan. Of course, India is the major factor.
Then there is the economics of it all. The economic growth engine is shifting away from China. Partly due to their own over engineering.
In all of the above, China will perceive loss of influence and may go overt, just like Pakis did in 1965.
China will continue to sabre rattle on Taiwan. But not overtly attack. A fractured polity in India is the best option for China.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I voted unlikely. A full blown war is not in the interest of China, i.e. its ruling clique. Taiwan is more bang for buck for them in the near term. They can instigate NoKo attacking SoKo at about the same time keeping the US busy on two fronts. India will not enter unless Indian interests are threatened either directly by China or indirectly through Shittistan. But then Shittistan is circling down the toilet.
Full blown invasion/starting a war with India in Oct 2027 is not possible because Modi's govt will have three years of good governance, making Indian economy better, and strengthening the defense forces.
Full blown invasion/starting a war with India in Oct 2027 is not possible because Modi's govt will have three years of good governance, making Indian economy better, and strengthening the defense forces.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Repeat post below
Last edited by Jayram on 25 May 2024 08:28, edited 1 time in total.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Unlikely. However salami slicing will continue as long as India does not do territory take over in turn. Talking after the fact is not budging the Chinese. Chinese do not want international coalitions to solidify against them and will not do anything overt. They will build their infrastructure opposite their next likely target and and push and probe there.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Yeah and that is not going to happen unless you are talking about some kung fu type dancing any where is Indo-China border. To start with you need a >5:1 ratio of firepower to gain anything in Himalayas. Chinese do not have that even if they bring more toys from the East. Not to mention the huge advantage India has in terms for seasoned troops and commanders who have experience in this kind of thing. The amount of surveillance equipment that is stationed in the border, post-Galvan, means Indian Army can figure out any preparation for full scale conflict very easily. Further, once we can escalate and bring the conflict to the Indian Ocean all bets are off.hgupta wrote: ↑23 May 2024 19:42 In order to stay in power, President Xi needs a short and quick victory. He cannot pull that off with Taiwan but he can certainly against India in the area of Bhutan or outlying areas of Arunachal Pradesh. It is the symbolic victory he needs to burnish the image of a superpower standing over a major foe in victory.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I didn’t say that he was gonna succeed. It’s the perception that counts. If he perceives that a short quick battle with India is doable and winnable he may do it. It will be up to the IA generals and their job description to make sure that doesn’t happen.williams wrote: ↑25 May 2024 07:56Yeah and that is not going to happen unless you are talking about some kung fu type dancing any where is Indo-China border. To start with you need a >5:1 ratio of firepower to gain anything in Himalayas. Chinese do not have that even if they bring more toys from the East. Not to mention the huge advantage India has in terms for seasoned troops and commanders who have experience in this kind of thing. The amount of surveillance equipment that is stationed in the border, post-Galvan, means Indian Army can figure out any preparation for full scale conflict very easily. Further, once we can escalate and bring the conflict to the Indian Ocean all bets are off.hgupta wrote: ↑23 May 2024 19:42 In order to stay in power, President Xi needs a short and quick victory. He cannot pull that off with Taiwan but he can certainly against India in the area of Bhutan or outlying areas of Arunachal Pradesh. It is the symbolic victory he needs to burnish the image of a superpower standing over a major foe in victory.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Ramana, war is ‘Unlikely’, in my assessment.
XJP, by all accounts, has profound passion for history and culture. Unlike Mao, XJP reveres Confucius. These should therefore influence his decision-making even if only subconsciously. 'Glorious China' meant to civilize barbarians should occupy his mind.
XJP has tricked the Chinese and imposed a Faustian bargain on them which was to make them accept unconditionally his rule for a ‘xiaokang’ (well-off) society. Now, ‘xiaokong’ is also nothing new invented by XJP; it is a deeply embedded concept in the Chinese society. So are tianxia or ‘zhongguo tese’ (Chinese Characteristics).
XJP’s bargain with his citizens is therefore a promise of xiaokang attained through tianxia using zhongguo tese as codified by ‘Xi Jinping’s Thoughts for a New Era’.
So, the claims over the entire Indo-China Sea, annexation of Taiwan, reckless behaviour in the Indo-China Sea by PLAN, PLAAF, Maritime Militia and the Coast Guard are all deemed essential because they are within the framework of the narrative spun out by XJP. The confrontation with the US, with almost all the neighbours, the defiant and Wolf-Warrior posture are all acceptable to the Chinese as a fair price to pay for xiaokang.
Whatever excuse that China proffers for annexing Taiwan, the simple truth is that China covets its technology and its wealth as well as the geostrategic advantage it offers. There is simply no other country whose sea access is so constrained by so many straits, as China is. Taiwan would relieve some of it and provide it with a counter capability too. It would also be a mortal blow to the US hegemony and instill a sense of foreboding and fear among the US allies in the North East of Asia and in the Western Pacific. For all its bravado, China must be worried to its marrow by the developing military alliance(s) against it. Therefore, Taiwan and the US are inextricably linked with tianxia, the ultimate goal. Simply put, Taiwan tops the chart. Anything else is a very distant second, third etc.
XJP has frequently talked about grabbing a lifetime ‘window of opportunity’that has emerged in favour of China, which indicates a very large ‘lifetime’ ambition that coincides with his tenure.
Therefore, it is simply not a question of burnishing XJP’s image (by annexing a few hundred square kilometres of Indian land), but it is much beyond that, which can only be taking that decisive step towards tianxia. India does not offer that tianxia Eureka moment to XJP. There are also real possibilities of failure such as IA putting up a fight that PLA would find fierce and unable to handle except by escalating way high, Russia not siding with China, India converting the QUAD into a military alliance etc. which are not worth the returns.
Annexing parts of Ladakh and AP or the middle sector does not contribute to that ambition. However, the Chinese thinking could be that troop build-up and salami-slicing would keep India bottled up or off-balance or unwilling to take sides when the real war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits and also increase China's real estate, the usual multiple Chinese objectives for an action. Or, China may offer this as bait to keep India neutral when it comes to the crunch in c. 2027 for what many expect to be the timeline for Taiwan annexation.
The possibility is that as days pass-by, the idea of xiaokang is receding rapidly due to incredibly severe economic woes which could anger the Heavens who then decide to withdraw their pleasure bestowed on XJP, leading to a better neighbourhood and world perhaps.
XJP, by all accounts, has profound passion for history and culture. Unlike Mao, XJP reveres Confucius. These should therefore influence his decision-making even if only subconsciously. 'Glorious China' meant to civilize barbarians should occupy his mind.
XJP has tricked the Chinese and imposed a Faustian bargain on them which was to make them accept unconditionally his rule for a ‘xiaokang’ (well-off) society. Now, ‘xiaokong’ is also nothing new invented by XJP; it is a deeply embedded concept in the Chinese society. So are tianxia or ‘zhongguo tese’ (Chinese Characteristics).
XJP’s bargain with his citizens is therefore a promise of xiaokang attained through tianxia using zhongguo tese as codified by ‘Xi Jinping’s Thoughts for a New Era’.
So, the claims over the entire Indo-China Sea, annexation of Taiwan, reckless behaviour in the Indo-China Sea by PLAN, PLAAF, Maritime Militia and the Coast Guard are all deemed essential because they are within the framework of the narrative spun out by XJP. The confrontation with the US, with almost all the neighbours, the defiant and Wolf-Warrior posture are all acceptable to the Chinese as a fair price to pay for xiaokang.
Whatever excuse that China proffers for annexing Taiwan, the simple truth is that China covets its technology and its wealth as well as the geostrategic advantage it offers. There is simply no other country whose sea access is so constrained by so many straits, as China is. Taiwan would relieve some of it and provide it with a counter capability too. It would also be a mortal blow to the US hegemony and instill a sense of foreboding and fear among the US allies in the North East of Asia and in the Western Pacific. For all its bravado, China must be worried to its marrow by the developing military alliance(s) against it. Therefore, Taiwan and the US are inextricably linked with tianxia, the ultimate goal. Simply put, Taiwan tops the chart. Anything else is a very distant second, third etc.
XJP has frequently talked about grabbing a lifetime ‘window of opportunity’that has emerged in favour of China, which indicates a very large ‘lifetime’ ambition that coincides with his tenure.
Therefore, it is simply not a question of burnishing XJP’s image (by annexing a few hundred square kilometres of Indian land), but it is much beyond that, which can only be taking that decisive step towards tianxia. India does not offer that tianxia Eureka moment to XJP. There are also real possibilities of failure such as IA putting up a fight that PLA would find fierce and unable to handle except by escalating way high, Russia not siding with China, India converting the QUAD into a military alliance etc. which are not worth the returns.
Annexing parts of Ladakh and AP or the middle sector does not contribute to that ambition. However, the Chinese thinking could be that troop build-up and salami-slicing would keep India bottled up or off-balance or unwilling to take sides when the real war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits and also increase China's real estate, the usual multiple Chinese objectives for an action. Or, China may offer this as bait to keep India neutral when it comes to the crunch in c. 2027 for what many expect to be the timeline for Taiwan annexation.
The possibility is that as days pass-by, the idea of xiaokang is receding rapidly due to incredibly severe economic woes which could anger the Heavens who then decide to withdraw their pleasure bestowed on XJP, leading to a better neighbourhood and world perhaps.
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S_Madhukar
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Re: China poll- Timing question.
I voted unlikely exactly because of Galwan that I sincerely hope should have woken up IA and other institutions specially RM and MoD. A strong nationalist govt with visible popular support as seen in democratic process should deter an autocratic system . Plus they have beggars nearby that can cause more damage and will buy some more toys for them. I fully expect them to launch constant media propaganda and fund numpties inside and outside the country to cause trouble. Also post Ukr I don’t see Russia relying on them too much and they won’t want to risk a potential US ally in the future. I am assuming Unkil won’t be playing its games either
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I selected Oct 2027 in the poll.
A few years ago it was discussed in this forum that unlike his predecessors Xi Jinping almost declared himself as an emperor. So by default, he has to show more aggressiveness against neighbours. That explains the Galwan and Tawang 2021 incidents. India inflicting disproportionate losses on China in the Galwan incident necessitates major retaliation by China.
For now, Xi likely be buying time showing the massive military infrastructure upgrade near the Indian border for an eventual strike on India. Considering the border terrain, an infantry battle was unlikely as Chinese troops had to spend more time at a very high altitude. Their likely tactic is missile/drone warfare where China enjoys a massive advantage over India in budget terms.
The only question is when. Considering that Indian defence expenditure hadn't yet reached an optimum level considering the dual threat of Pak and China; China can afford a few more years to plan an offensive. So I selected 2027.
Can India deter the coming Chinese attack by the threat of cutting Chinese imports?
As Suraj pointed out here in the forum, the Galwan incident cost China many billions of dollars due to economic countermeasures by India. So most likely a limited missile strike by China is a real possibility in the coming years.
I saw several people here suggesting that the Taiwan attack is more likely, but it doesn't make much sense. The USA had deep pockets to fund and Taiwan had anti-surface supersonic missiles that could target expensive warships, and high-value business centres in the Chinese mainland. A limited conflict with India gives much more escalation control and face-saving opportunities.
A few years ago it was discussed in this forum that unlike his predecessors Xi Jinping almost declared himself as an emperor. So by default, he has to show more aggressiveness against neighbours. That explains the Galwan and Tawang 2021 incidents. India inflicting disproportionate losses on China in the Galwan incident necessitates major retaliation by China.
For now, Xi likely be buying time showing the massive military infrastructure upgrade near the Indian border for an eventual strike on India. Considering the border terrain, an infantry battle was unlikely as Chinese troops had to spend more time at a very high altitude. Their likely tactic is missile/drone warfare where China enjoys a massive advantage over India in budget terms.
The only question is when. Considering that Indian defence expenditure hadn't yet reached an optimum level considering the dual threat of Pak and China; China can afford a few more years to plan an offensive. So I selected 2027.
Can India deter the coming Chinese attack by the threat of cutting Chinese imports?
As Suraj pointed out here in the forum, the Galwan incident cost China many billions of dollars due to economic countermeasures by India. So most likely a limited missile strike by China is a real possibility in the coming years.
I saw several people here suggesting that the Taiwan attack is more likely, but it doesn't make much sense. The USA had deep pockets to fund and Taiwan had anti-surface supersonic missiles that could target expensive warships, and high-value business centres in the Chinese mainland. A limited conflict with India gives much more escalation control and face-saving opportunities.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
rohitvats, who had extensively covered ORBATs, military logistics of India and China in this forum just today commented in X that by around 2027 China will be well prepared for a war with India.
https://x.com/KesariDhwaj/status/179643 ... QKYGg&s=19
https://x.com/KesariDhwaj/status/179643 ... QKYGg&s=19
....
Remember, Taiwan might be China's first priority, but China will move militarily against Indian once it has covered all bases against us.
Its infra is yet not up to speed to ensure 100% victory over India (especially in Eastern Ladakh) and its force distribution is also not balanced (as of today).
It will plug these gaps over next 2-3 years and then, all bets are off.
A short, sharp and intense 1962 style operation is a matter of when, and not if.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Am worried about China.
What lessons they get from this fractured verdict?
Their Beijing Accord partner is on come back trail.
China can decide to help with short war.
Chinese have a saying" Troubles within, troubles without."
That is internal troubles invite external troubles.
We focus on Nehru, Menon, Army etc but ignore political situation in 1962.
It was quite fractious.
DMK had their anti Hindi agitation led by Annadurai. Nehru had just won General Elections after Goa police action.
Unless NDA shows firm grip in forming the govt. China will decide on war.
Military is dragging feet on theatre commands. It's 24 years since KRC.
Still no artillery procurement.
Agniveer is under attack by Opposition.
What lessons they get from this fractured verdict?
Their Beijing Accord partner is on come back trail.
China can decide to help with short war.
Chinese have a saying" Troubles within, troubles without."
That is internal troubles invite external troubles.
We focus on Nehru, Menon, Army etc but ignore political situation in 1962.
It was quite fractious.
DMK had their anti Hindi agitation led by Annadurai. Nehru had just won General Elections after Goa police action.
Unless NDA shows firm grip in forming the govt. China will decide on war.
Military is dragging feet on theatre commands. It's 24 years since KRC.
Still no artillery procurement.
Agniveer is under attack by Opposition.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
Ramanaji
I vote yes for a limited conflict
Yes that is a big worry
Will a new front be opened or old scars opened again??
Also what if no Goras support us(I understand that we have to fight it out on our own).
I have rephrase my ealier post about J20 landings in Tibet
I think that did send some serious message to INDI gang and what rumours did they spread??
I vote yes for a limited conflict
Yes that is a big worry
Will a new front be opened or old scars opened again??
Also what if no Goras support us(I understand that we have to fight it out on our own).
I have rephrase my ealier post about J20 landings in Tibet
I think that did send some serious message to INDI gang and what rumours did they spread??
Re: China poll- Timing question.
And I say this because :
China wants to break NaMo hold on Indian Politics and muscular foreign policy.
Guess what happened to Neverwho when he was roaming around with the NAM nonsense and Panchasheel
They taught a lesson in real politics
EAM is quite savvy but still a limited conflict will be a body blow to NaMo type muscular policy dont you guys think??
China wants to break NaMo hold on Indian Politics and muscular foreign policy.
Guess what happened to Neverwho when he was roaming around with the NAM nonsense and Panchasheel
They taught a lesson in real politics
EAM is quite savvy but still a limited conflict will be a body blow to NaMo type muscular policy dont you guys think??
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I say China will misadventure in April 2025.
Reason, US new government will be tenuous with elections rigging in-fighting from Jan to April 2025. That is when US abelity to timely support Taiwan or Bharat would be questionable.
Reason, US new government will be tenuous with elections rigging in-fighting from Jan to April 2025. That is when US abelity to timely support Taiwan or Bharat would be questionable.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I picked Oct 24:
Emperor Eleven is facing all kinds of blow back from the US withdrawal of manufacturing in China. Unemployment is running well over 50%. Many high rise buildings in cities are empty and small services like food, grocery, etc have disappeared. High speed Rail network has shut down many stations (empty) and the traffic has reduced considerably due to high cost for tickets. The PLA second in command has not been seen for 5 weeks. He is a powerful guy and was seen with other princelings who want to throw out Emperor. A chinese parable refers to white bird dashing into a mountain and chinese character (writing in chinese) matches with Xi Jing Ping name and the another parable has a warrior who kills someone in a palace. This parable in chinese character (writing) matches the name of the PLA second in command dude. Emperor has become paranoid and you know the next thing would be to deflect attention and create a war with neighbors to show how strong China is. Oct 2024 is highly likely, just before the US Nov elections. India will be distracted by the new elections and settling down will take some time.
Emperor Eleven is facing all kinds of blow back from the US withdrawal of manufacturing in China. Unemployment is running well over 50%. Many high rise buildings in cities are empty and small services like food, grocery, etc have disappeared. High speed Rail network has shut down many stations (empty) and the traffic has reduced considerably due to high cost for tickets. The PLA second in command has not been seen for 5 weeks. He is a powerful guy and was seen with other princelings who want to throw out Emperor. A chinese parable refers to white bird dashing into a mountain and chinese character (writing in chinese) matches with Xi Jing Ping name and the another parable has a warrior who kills someone in a palace. This parable in chinese character (writing) matches the name of the PLA second in command dude. Emperor has become paranoid and you know the next thing would be to deflect attention and create a war with neighbors to show how strong China is. Oct 2024 is highly likely, just before the US Nov elections. India will be distracted by the new elections and settling down will take some time.
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S_Madhukar
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Re: China poll- Timing question.
Oct is great for a short war, occupy heights/territory and hope winter deters any counter-attack. While US elections is good excuse I will also destabilise govt by removing support like SuSu did and use that chaos to strike. Apr will mean you have 6 month window to counter/regroup
Re: China poll- Timing question.
I put this poll in Strat Forum on question of timing of a China attack. A majority of those who voted claimed it was unlikely. Go figure. If the most savvy forum votes, unlikely the contrarian is correct.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
More than the nature of the US support. India lost because it accepted the PRC offered ceasefire in 1962.
India should have used the winter of 1962 to prepare for a war in the summer of 1963 and tried to retake our lands.
We didn't do that. That is the real defeat of 1962.
Re: China poll- Timing question.
The post election landscape is a bit of a bother for me.
But then people get the governments they deserve. Agniveer is a problem only when the state governments are failures in generating jobs in respective states
Eastern UP and all of Bihar are prime examples and that is where the loudest demands for review are coming from.
But then people get the governments they deserve. Agniveer is a problem only when the state governments are failures in generating jobs in respective states
Eastern UP and all of Bihar are prime examples and that is where the loudest demands for review are coming from.