Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

[KL Dubey]

Pradeep Singh explains the futility of the last-ditch BIF effort to salvage something from the last two Phayzes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bDEKnMHMgw

Additionally, both Modi and Shah have declared in their latest rallies that NDA is already at around 310 after Phayze 5, and now its time for a final push towards 400.

At this point it does not make sense to club the already voted 428 seats and the upcoming 115 seats for an overall prediction, since there is considerable analysis on the 428 voted seats.

Most detailed analysts are giving BJP around 270 and NDA 300-310 in Phayzes 1-5. Most of the others who deviate from this range do not provide any rationale/seat-wise analysis.

[vijayk]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk0xiccxkOo
Why Political Scientist Ian Bremmer Thinks BJP Will Get 305 Seats | Lok Sabha Elections 2024

very good interview ... I like this interviewer too ...

[sanjayc]

^^ Not a healthy trend. Whites are being inserted as commentators into political discourse of India. Americans are slyly sneaking in articles written by Whites on Indian elections (who will win, who will lose, etc.) into Times of India (the old prostitute of the media). Whites will soon normalize this and Indians will take is as a matter of course to interview Americans and seek their views on Indian elections and politicians whenever elections are held in India. Mostly, Whites operate in India through TOI, Scroll, Indian Express, NDTV and The Print (Shekhar Gupta).

Notice how regularly TOI publishes interviews of experts from American universities on all kinds of topics (just to keep Indians in awe of American academia). I strongly suspect American embassy pays TOI to publish these.

[chetak]

Pradeep Singh explains the futility of the last-ditch BIF effort to salvage something from the last two Phayzes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bDEKnMHMgw

Additionally, both Modi and Shah have declared in their latest rallies that NDA is already at around 310 after Phayze 5, and now its time for a final push towards 400.

At this point it does not make sense to club the already voted 428 seats and the upcoming 115 seats for an overall prediction, since there is considerable analysis on the 428 voted seats.

Most detailed analysts are giving BJP around 270 and NDA 300-310 in Phayzes 1-5. Most of the others who deviate from this range do not provide any rationale/seat-wise analysis.

Dubey ji,


The more number of allies in the NDA, the manifestation of a higher level risk is not only a danger, but also a distinct possibility


One has to only see the recent "pocket maar" politics which played out in MAH and KAR to know what can happen to/with agenda driven "allies" in a opportunistic political formation


Despite what they say, the enemy is not bereft of resources to tempt such "allies" away from the NDA

I strongly suspect that the mess in MAH was a BIF trial start up, an early bird attempt created and organized solely to test the local waters by incorporating two so called sub regional cohorts because both of these actors had a fairly limited reach in state politics, unlike, say, the YSRP or TMC or the DMK where the political eco system dominance is far more authoritative, comprehensive, and calculative in denying access to power structures.

The two in MAH went solely by the mathematics that was greased by greed and the two were not the big game hunters that they fancied themselves to be.

The decapitating strike that followed majorly denuded their leaders and sank the two ex "allies", and may have also effectively ended their dynastic succession plans.

They even burned the next generation, meaning that it was an extreme solution to a problem that has occurred many times in Indian politics but this time an example had to be made, both in and out side of the country.

It was not a blowback that these two "netas" had gamed when they made their politically fatal moves.


As far as regime change is concerned, there may be more than one way to skin the cat, a pre poll way and a post poll way ...... just saying onlee .....

[KL Dubey]

^^^This does not make any sense to me. You're entitled to your opinion, of course.

[fanne]

chetak sahab, i also did not understand your post, it was little more cryptic than my intellect can handle. However, I am very glad that BJP went with as many allies as possible. 2004 is a prime example where choosing all the right allies made all the difference. These include 1 people alliances.
Moreover, many of these parties represent a certain group/caste/tribe/language of people. The BIF (mostly from west), is fishing heavily to divide and rule us (where have we heard that before and seen that working?).The repository of all our divisions with the players that head those division is in someones secret archive. Evene after independence, through various ways these divisions have been stoked and people well managed. They will come hard at us in Modi 3.0. You want your side also to be full, even if it has people whom you will never welcome in your home or go out for lunch/dinner/pub.

[chetak]

chetak sahab, i also did not understand your post, it was little more cryptic than my intellect can handle. However, I am very glad that BJP went with as many allies as possible. 2004 is a prime example where choosing all the right allies made all the difference. These include 1 people alliances.
Moreover, many of these parties represent a certain group/caste/tribe/language of people. The BIF (mostly from west), is fishing heavily to divide and rule us (where have we heard that before and seen that working?).The repository of all our divisions with the players that head those division is in someones secret archive. Evene after independence, through various ways these divisions have been stoked and people well managed. They will come hard at us in Modi 3.0. You want your side also to be full, even if it has people whom you will never welcome in your home or go out for lunch/dinner/pub.

fanne saab,

If the BJP needs allies to form the govt, then there is a risk of the govt being reduced to a minority, sooner rather than later, thereby allowing others to over throw and form the govt by marginalizing the BJP as it happened in MAH. This is also a possible regime change scenario.

If, by now, and by itself, it manages to cross the halfway mark, then the risk is reduced but not completely removed

Just gaming the various possibilities, given the enormous and unwarranted interest that the BIF have taken in these elections

The remaining phases of the elections may be a little tough going for the BJP, if it has not already crossed the majority mark on its own, because the political terrain to be traversed in the remaining phases may not be areas of easy pickings and hence enormous funds are being deployed by the BIF to muddy the waters and force a different outcome.

You already know that I am one among the most steadfast bhakts of Modiji and will always wish him well. Many of the sources and discussions that I monitor are beginning to express some degree of unease, and hopefully that may only be a passing phase. There is some indication of minority consolidation, more than what happened before

The game is not over and the soreass gangs have not given up yet.

[RCase]

Chetakji
I dont know if you have bought any katakat masala( not sure as its pakistani delicacy)
Main ingredients in it : Heart, Kidney and Brain (Which Mr Pappuji is missing)
Name is derived (as I am told by some of my pakistani colleagues) is because of the sound that the chopper makes whilst chopping the offal.
Generally considered a poor man's street food delicacy!!
I wonder if Pappuji has ever visited that site for some tasting

Might also be have pissful derivative as Pappu is an extra peaceful loving person. Katana, or the mullah doing khat a khat cuts to nanha mujahids.

[Vayutuvan]

In fact, in the Pew Research Poll published August 29, 2023, PM Modi had a 79% favorable view among Indians including 55% with a very favorable view (emphasis is from Pew)
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023 ... countries/

What is the error? I would guess it would be in the ball park of +-3%.

A side note: Interesting results from Europeans. Catholic countries have higher percentage unfavorability ratings. France and Spain especially. Favorability/Unfavorability crossed over from 2013. Sonia G is an ex(?)-Catholic could be the reason. BJP govt. under PM Modi, put a stop to missionary activity. Similar trend can be observed with Germany (though there was no cross-over). Argentina - another Catholic country - is very unfavorable to PM Modi.

[A_Gupta]

All the cr*p interpretations Pappu & co spout about the Constitution saying that India is a Union of States is answered by Ambedkar, see below (Constituent Assembly Debates, November 4, 1948).

Per the interpretation put on the words in the Constitution by Ambedkar and the other writers of the Constitution, India is an integral whole, a single people, divided into states only for administrative convenience.

Not what Pappu keeps saying, a collection of states that agreed to come together in 1947.

Some critics have taken objection to the description of India in Article 1 of the Draft Constitution as a Union of States. It is said that the correct phraseology should be a Federation of States. It is true that South Africa which is a unitary State is described as a Union. But Canada which is a Federation is also called a Union. Thus the description of India as a Union, though its constitution is Federal, does no violence to usage.

But what is important is that the use of the word Union is deliberate. I do not know why the word ‘Union’ was used in the Canadian Constitution. But I can tell you why the Drafting Committee has used it. The Drafting Committee wanted to make it clear that though India was to be a federation, the Federation was not the result of an agreement by the States to join in a Federation and that the Federation not being the result of an agreement no State has the right to secede from it.

The Federation is a Union because it is indestructible. Though the country and the people may be divided into different States for convenience of administration the country is one integral whole, its people a single people living under a single imperium derived from a single source.

The Americans had to wage a civil war to establish that the States have no right of secession and that their Federation was indestructible. The Drafting Committee thought that it was better to make it clear at the outset rather than to leave it to speculation or to dispute.

[KL Dubey]

IT Department’s huge tax bill for Congress will be collected after the election. Rs 3567 crores I think.

——

On a different topic - India’s electorate was 912 million in 2019 and 970 million in 2024. While everyone has focused on percentage turnout, no one has talked of the effect of this average of additional 1.1 lakh voters per constituency. Any of the gurus here have any info?

Voter turnout percentage in 2024 seems only marginally lower than 2019, maybe 2-3% lower after final numbers are provided by EC. Since the electorate has increased by much higher (6.3%) - mostly young voters - there would be more numbers of votes cast. I doubt if these young voters will go with INDI or non-aligned parties in most states. Likely Modi will capture most of this voter segment.

[Amber G.]

Some technical info about EVM's - how they are hack-proof..
India's Most Tamper-Proof EVMs

[drnayar]

Just for the superstitious

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/science/s ... 2024-05-22

Parade of planets: Six planets to line up in the skies in rare cosmic alignmentThe alignment will take place in the first week of June as the planets line up in a rare cosmic event.

[ramana]

And the crowning of Modi 3.0!!!

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Sachin]

Mean while in a major blow to secularism Supreme Court Refuses To Direct ECI To Disclose Form 17C Records Of Votes Polled, Adjourns Plea . Looks like there was a Writ petition filed on the same subject matter in the year 2019. SC has asked both petitions to be clubbed and to be heard together later.

If Shri. Pappu Ghandi wants to know the votes polled at each booth, all he need to do is to share a Google Drive and ask the INC polling agents at each booth to upload a scanned copy of the Form 17-C which would be given to them by the presiding officer. Ask jobless Congress workers to sit and tabulate the data of total votes polled.

Looks like Shri. Pappu Ghandi and his alliance partners have realised that their ship is now sinking. The next strategy is to discredit the elections.

[drnayar]

[chetak]

The congis are crapping their pants, they never imagined that there are two separate RSS organizations that they need to fear

Delhi: "Rahul Gandhi can't even understand the RSS, let alone its definition.

The full form of RSS is Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

There is another organization called Rashtra Swayamsevika Samiti, which is separate from the RSS.

It is a different organization for women, and there is a separate one for men.

If he can't understand this much, then his question is as absurd and illogical as why men are not seen in the women's wing," says BJP leader Sudhanshu Trivedi

[A_Gupta]

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2021470

Polling is scheduled in 58 PCs across 8 States/UTs. Haryana and NCT of Delhi will head to polls in this phase. Bihar, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are the other States/UTs which will continue with their polls in this phase. Polling for 42 Assembly Constituencies for the Odisha State Legislative Assembly will also take place simultaneously.
...

Polling for Phase-6 of the General Elections 2024 will be held on 25th of May, 2024 for 58 Parliamentary Constituencies (General- 49; ST- 02; SC- 07) in 8 States/ UTs. Voting begins at 7AM and closure of poll timings may differ PC wise.

42 Assembly Constituencies (General -31; ST=05; SC=06) of Odisha Legislative Assembly will also go to polls simultaneously.

Around 11.4 lakh Polling officials will welcome over 11.13 crore voters across 1.14 lakh polling stations

Over 11.13 crore voters include 5.84 crore Male; 5.29 crore Female and 5120 Third gender electors.

There are over 8.93 lakh registered 85+ years old, 23,659 voters above 100 years and 9.58 lakh PwD voters for Phase 6 who have been provided the option to vote from the comfort of their homes. The optional Home Voting facility is already receiving tremendous appreciation and response.

20 Special trains were deployed to ferry security personnel.

184 Observers (66 General Observers, 35 Police Observers, 83 Expenditure Observers) have already reached their Constituencies days before the polls. They serve as the eyes and ears of the Commission to exercise utmost vigilance. Additionally, Special Observers have been deployed in certain states.

A total of 2222 Flying Squads, 2295 Static Surveillance Teams, 819 Video Surveillance Teams and 569 Video Viewing Teams are keeping surveillance round the clock to deal with any form of inducement of voters strictly and swiftly.

A total of 257 international Border check posts and 927 inter-state border check posts are keeping strict vigil on any illicit flow of liquor, drugs, cash and freebies. Strict surveillance has been kept at sea and air routes.

[chetak]

Top World Central Banks performance:

US FED - $118 Billion LOSS

UK BoE - $86 Billion LOSS

IND RBI - $43 Billion PROFIT

[Avinandan]

Top World Central Banks performance:
US FED - $118 Billion LOSS
UK BoE - $86 Billion LOSS
IND RBI - $43 Billion PROFIT

Small nit pick saar :
UK BoE - £86 Billion LOSS

[vijayk]

Looks like the rumors by BIF (Kejriwal/Pappu) that Yogi is being kicked out after election and not giving tickets to some folks like Gen. VK Singh has angered Rajputs and made them look at punishing BJP. That was the narrative. Pappu then came and said India fought Raputs/Brahmins not British has angered them. Even Pappu talking about snatching wealth and land to distribute freaked out Jats.

Can anyone from North comment on. this?

[A_Gupta]

EAM Jaishankar on ANI Smita Prakash said that the exercise of "BJP party officials visit constituencies that the BJP lost in 2019 and estimate the prospects of making gains" was done two years ago; the 370 BJP/400+ NDA targets did not come from someone waking up one morning and deciding.

[chetak]

Job Creation is at 18 year high.

And Congress says that Modi is not giving employments

Why no one is talking about it

[chetak]

[chetak]

The entitlement factor that always defines the so called "elites"


some are snakes in the ganga and others are snakes in the grass


He still thinks he is giving and he is so important that he is also getting

[A_Gupta]

PM Modi is giving interview after interview. He generally does not do things without a deep reason - he is preparing the country for something.

In his interview with NDTV, indicates he is thinking hard about the 85% of Muslims who are Pasmanda. He says that while the commentators divide up Hindus into jaatis, they do not do so for Muslims, though the reality is that they also have a lot of jaatis. They are in the grip of a class that holds them back from advancement. PM Modi's approach is that all untapped potential should be used. How to get such a large class of people involved in the development of the country, that is what he is thinking about. He is familiar with them because he grew up among them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_x8sA0uxIk&t=590s

[Kati]

Reporting from the East, - all BRF guru-log........

First the little good news: Both the seats in Tripura are solidly in BJP bag. 100% guarantee .... otherwise, paisa wapas.
Secondly, the situation in WB is a see-saw battle. Mumtaaz Banoo, inspite of mountain of corruptions (perhaps biggest in all Bharat), is trying to
hold on to her dominance through terror on Hindus, and money power to woo a large section of Hindu women votes. "Lakshmi' Bhandaar" is a scheme which gives money directly to women's bank accounts. Taking money from the central funds, and channelizing under her pet project names, and then crying foul that the state has no money, and raking up a huge deficit to the state exchequer.

Talked to several people over the last several weeks. So pro-BJP enthusiasts are bragging the BJP may get up to 35 seats (out of 42), but I'm very doubtful. A more realistic figure is that of BJP holding the line at 20 max.

More later on recent ideas on poll reforms to minimize voter fraud / rigging. Things will see a massive change within the next two years - thereby causing a lot of indignition to secularists.

[suryag]

BJP will lose onlee.

May you be chiranjeevi

[Pratyush]

Just pressed Kamal in Gurugram.

[srin]

The entitlement factor that always defines the so called "elites"


some are snakes in the ganga and others are snakes in the grass


He still thinks he is giving and he is so important that he is also getting

The BJP leadership has shown remarkable forbearance of his wishes to get expelled so he can become a victim. I wonder when the patience is going to run out. Given he did in 1999, it was right on the BJP's part to not trust him.

[Sachin]

EC releases absolute number of voters for all completed phases
Even though the Supreme Court took a "hand off" approach on putting up booth wise list of votes polled, Election Commission has suo moto put up the same . ECI highlighted that near real-time information was always accessible to both the public and candidates through its Voter Turnout App. So it was a very progressive, secular, liberal "Much Ado about Nothing".

[Sachin]

Phase 6: Haryana & Delhi. Summary (as of 2PM) from 5Forty3.

• BJP leading in 4 seats, and INC in 3. There are three other seats in Tossup category.
• The "farmer" protests essentially is a Jat protest. Jats it seems have been punching above their weight for quite some time.
• There is counter-polarisation of all non-Jats towards BJP.
• CM Khattar may scrape through in Karnala. Naveen Jindal (ex-INC) in Kurukshetra may win, if he can use his strong network there.
• In Delhi BJP seems to be leading in all 7 seats.
• Looks like the BJP has put in real local leaders as MP candidates, and no para-dropped celebrities. These leaders have good clout on the ground.
• Delhi BJP it seems is top notch when it comes to factionalism, but this time local candidates in fray it may not happen.
• The AAP-INC vote share may work in theory, but may not work in practicals.

[KL Dubey]

Phase 6: Haryana & Delhi. Summary (as of 2PM) from 5Forty3.

• BJP leading in 4 seats, and INC in 3. There are three other seats in Tossup category.
• The "farmer" protests essentially is a Jat protest. Jats it seems have been punching above their weight for quite some time.
• There is counter-polarisation of all non-Jats towards BJP.
• CM Khattar may scrape through in Karnala. Naveen Jindal (ex-INC) in Kurukshetra may win, if he can use his strong network there.
• In Delhi BJP seems to be leading in all 7 seats.
• Looks like the BJP has put in real local leaders as MP candidates, and no para-dropped celebrities. These leaders have good clout on the ground.
• Delhi BJP it seems is top notch when it comes to factionalism, but this time local candidates in fray it may not happen.
• The AAP-INC vote share may work in theory, but may not work in practicals.

Thanks, 2 PM report seems a bit too early for trends.

DL is 7 seats.

HR seems a one-sided contest in most of the seats, it will be interesting to see if INC can win Rohtak and make it 9-1 instead of 10-0.

The most interesting will be WB. In Phayze 6 several seats are in the area of Adhikari family influence. Last time they were in TMC, now in BJP.

[vsunder]

^^^ I expect Delhi will be a clean sweep for BJP. Most of the candidates of AAP have been parachuted in to the constituency and have no name recognition same as Congress. Like some Pahelwan from South Delhi. Yes, Adhikari family has Tamluk and two other places as their fortress in WB. The interesting contest in WB is between Mahua Moitra and the Maharani of Krishnanagar. The Maharani did no campaigning and is just a old, useless individual who thinks people will vote just because she is royalty. Modi on his swing through WB scolded the Maharani and said, look at me at my age I am campaigning so vigorously. After that the Maharani went out to do some campaigning, but cannot say if this last minute effort will bear fruit.

UP except for Azamgarh which is really an enclave of feudal, zamindari Muslim families who did not want to leave their land and migrate to Pakistan, the remaining seats under contest in UP should be for BJP. Azamgarh will be for Akhilesh Yadav and SP. I have a very close and dear friend from one of these families who is a distinguished biologist/biochemist in his own right and who is estranged from his family because of their feudal ways and has made his way in this world due to his hard work and merit. I do not think Azamgarh is going to change anytime soon as he tells me.

As KLD^^^says Rohtak is where the INC is expected to put up a good fight with Depinder Hooda, but he has cut the ground underneath his feet by denying tickets to powerful and influential people in the INC like Bansi Lal family etc so each of those denied a ticket is ensuring that Hooda not win and also they are undermining those selected by Hooda to run. So its INC on INC in many places. RaGa gave Hooda carte blanche to do as he pleases and Hooda screwed it up. This is sure to cut votes for INC in HR and only benefit the BJP.

Odisha also seems to be doing well for BJP in Phase 6.

Based on what several commentators are saying, my guesstimate is that with the end of Phase 6, BJP has reached the same number of seats as in 2019 elections. One phase remains with 57 seats to contest and I would suspect that BJP will end up with 325 seats plus or minus 10 at the end. This is just a pragmatic estimate for me.

At the end of the day, post the election there will be a churn as some MPs will realize the futility and begin talks to jump ship and join the NDA.

[KL Dubey]

The interesting contest in WB is between Mahua Moitra and the Maharani of Krishnanagar. The Maharani did no campaigning and is just a old, useless individual who thinks people will vote just because she is royalty. Modi on his swing through WB scolded the Maharani and said, look at me at my age I am campaigning so vigorously. After that the Maharani went out to do some campaigning, but cannot say if this last minute effort will bear fruit.

If the "maharani" manages to lose against someone who gained fame as a dog-stealer and foolish enough to find herself alone with a known molester (the hero of Trivandrum), she would be truly useless indeed.

[drnayar]

The interesting contest in WB is between Mahua Moitra and the Maharani of Krishnanagar. The Maharani did no campaigning and is just a old, useless individual who thinks people will vote just because she is royalty. Modi on his swing through WB scolded the Maharani and said, look at me at my age I am campaigning so vigorously. After that the Maharani went out to do some campaigning, but cannot say if this last minute effort will bear fruit.

If the "maharani" manages to lose against someone who gained fame as a dog-stealer and foolish enough to find herself alone with a known molester (the hero of Trivandrum), she would be truly useless indeed.

Gosh..talk of rubbing salt into someone's wound ..by the way I am curious which way shampoo boy goes this election

[LakshmanPST]

Delhi, I have my doubts...
Among the masses, many fear that Modi will stop the freebies if voted to power... This might effect BJP a bit...
Also, issue of electoral bonds did have some effect on Modi's Anti-corrupt image...
While many are predicting BJP's win, I have my fingers crossed... And unlike last time, Cong and AAP are in alliance who had combined vote share of 40% in 2019...
They only need to twist half of the swing voters, who make up 15-20% of Delhi population to win...

[chetak]

khujli caught between a rock and a hard place

couldn't run away from the interview because of impending elections, so was forced to stay and sweat.

This young journalist Peenaz Tyagi Ne khujli Ko Pani Pila Diya



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWsuxZv6u80


Arvind Kejriwal Exclusive Interview: शराब घोटाले से लेकर मालीवाल केस तक...केजरीवाल से सबसे तीखे सवाल





The video is about 27:55 minutes long

[chetak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNN0lLhp21U



Ian Bremmer On Global Risk and India’s Rise: The View from Outside







The video is about 54:04 minutes long


You cannot afford to miss this ...

It's a delightful, insightful, and a masterclass on his take on geopolitics, India is mentioned a number of times This is a hugely respected guy who makes a living addressing geopolitical risk on a global scale


May 22, 2024

Global Risk and India’s Rise. Watch Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group and GZero Media discusses and debates at India Today