Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
What do all the poll predictors give as the result for Raebareilly?
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
BJP candidate as per reports is not that good and has some bad name. But Pappu has to meet RJB and NM wave. So only local weakness is the negative thing for BJP.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
I found this:
Ankit Jain (मोदी जी का परिवार)
@indiantweeter
Satta bazar is giving odds of 1-10 of Congress beating BJP in Amethi and 4-10 of Congress beating BJP in Raebareli.
3:26 AM · May 24, 2024
·
25.1K
Views
Ankit Jain (मोदी जी का परिवार)
@indiantweeter
Satta bazar is giving odds of 1-10 of Congress beating BJP in Amethi and 4-10 of Congress beating BJP in Raebareli.
3:26 AM · May 24, 2024
·
25.1K
Views
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
So 10% chance for Congress to win Amethi
and 40% chance to win RB.
Did they update yet?
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
“Indian middle class has let us down.”
~ Karan and Romila Thapar have found the villain.
WATCH VIDEO
The video is about 1:35 minutes long
~ Karan and Romila Thapar have found the villain.
WATCH VIDEO
The video is about 1:35 minutes long
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Marxists always blame the Bourgeoisie.chetak wrote: ↑27 May 2024 23:58 “Indian middle class has let us down.”
~ Karan and Romila Thapar have found the villain.
WATCH VIDEO
The video is about 1:35 minutes long
In Marxist theory, petite bourgeoisie (middle class), poses a danger due to their ambivalence in the class struggle. They have a vested interest in maintaining the current system because they are generally optimistic towards the future and do not want a revolution. They want to own things, and they seek stability -- in society as well as opportunity.the middle class, typically with reference to its perceived materialistic values or conventional attitudes.
Blaming the middle class is standard Marxist fare. I expected her to do a laal Salaam at the end.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
How accurate are Satabazar reports ?
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Too much fake news, falsified Satta Bazaar info, out there for me to figure it out. I don't know what is real and what is faked.
But among those that I favor:
But among those that I favor:
The Jaipur Dialogues
@JaipurDialogues
·
May 14
Phalodi Satta Bazaar predicts Madhavi Latha's Victory in Hyderabad
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Sorry, I would not give any attention to these reports of appreciation as much as I would do for "democracy in danger" or "democratic backsliding" etc. This is the "good cop-bad cop" or "Heads I win, Tails, I loose" routine. The west must learn the art of power to the people from India, they are just minnows-students and are not really qualified to issue any certificate. Treat them with disdain.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
It looks like BJP will be comfortably will be above 272. How much, maybe something like 325. BJP started around that number, as election progressed, it lost some seats that it was to win and gained some that was not in Win list.
But for people who like to dhoti shibber-
1. It looks like some jammu Hindus are not liking the abrogation of article, it has more completion from outsiders. Is the news even true and what is its impact.
2. Rajasthan we are losing some seats, one guy from one caste that use to support bjp has completely gone wrong. This is one big state that had the highest % of votes for BJP in India. The battle lines for 2029 are already drawn.
3. Same poison is seeping in UP. Will it effect up seats.
4. It looks like there is lots of dischanted voters in Bihar (obviously). Plus one higher caste group has gone the rjd way. How many seats will bjp loose?
5. Maha - real SS is not settlerd. Real NCP might be. Impact on bjp number? Impact on NDA number?
6. Karnataka, unexpectedly did good for cong? How big is its impact?
All of that has impact in this and future election.
The paksha in June 2nd half is 13 days. It was so during Mahabharata war, partition, 1962 war (it happens quite frequently, sometime very benign). So what it will be this time?
But for people who like to dhoti shibber-
1. It looks like some jammu Hindus are not liking the abrogation of article, it has more completion from outsiders. Is the news even true and what is its impact.
2. Rajasthan we are losing some seats, one guy from one caste that use to support bjp has completely gone wrong. This is one big state that had the highest % of votes for BJP in India. The battle lines for 2029 are already drawn.
3. Same poison is seeping in UP. Will it effect up seats.
4. It looks like there is lots of dischanted voters in Bihar (obviously). Plus one higher caste group has gone the rjd way. How many seats will bjp loose?
5. Maha - real SS is not settlerd. Real NCP might be. Impact on bjp number? Impact on NDA number?
6. Karnataka, unexpectedly did good for cong? How big is its impact?
All of that has impact in this and future election.
The paksha in June 2nd half is 13 days. It was so during Mahabharata war, partition, 1962 war (it happens quite frequently, sometime very benign). So what it will be this time?
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
@Ramana: The demographics of Amethi and Rae Bareli are very different. The two constituencies border each other. There is also nearby Phulpur, Chacha Nehru's old constituency. UP has the perennial Yadav/Dalit divide and each party wants to win sizeable portion of the "the other". This caste dynamics is not easy to understand for NRIs and people who have not interacted with UPites.
In Rae Bareli, the demographics favors Brahmins. You would think this then is positive given Ram Mandir and so on. No. Other factors are at work. Manoj Pandey the SP chief whip and former confidant of Tipoo( yes that is indeed the nickname of Akhilesh Yadav like Tipoo Sultan) left the SP party claiming it is no longer the party whose philosophy he embraces given Tipoo did not go to the pran pratishtha. He then embraced the BJP. All good, but in his mind the Brahmin Pandey also thought that as a quid pro quo he should be offered Rae Bareli as a MP seat. This did not happen and he sulked and did not appear on the dais with other leaders. He is a bit of a "strongman" in the Brahmin community and because of his past political afiliations, has some clout in the Yadav community, which has the potential to tip things in the favor of the BJP. At a late stage May 13th, Amit Shah made attempts at a rapprochement with Pandey and eventually Pandey appeared together at a few rallies coming out of his sulk. Now it is unclear if he has undercut the vote and done irreversible damage, or the last minute attempts by the BJP leadership to fix the issue has solved the problem. Honestly, they should have gone after Raga hammer and tongs and tried all means to deprive him of a victory. It would be a great point to say that he could not win his Lok Sabha seat. It really does not matter that the people of Rae Bareli know that they live in a sh**thole where the sitting MP could not even release discretionary funds to fix roads, the railway station which is an eyesore. This is now being improved under Amrit Bharat. Doubling all the way to Amethi and Varanasi and Lucknow and a new station building at Rae Bareli, wide platforms and added train services to major metros have all happened only recently and not due to Sonia. There were plants here like the telephone exchange plant and so on which with the cell phone era was dealt a deathblow. Only the Integral Coach Factory remains and gives some employment as a symbol of Sonia's largesse.
The British classified the Yadavs(who are Ahirs or Doodhwalas) as a backward caste. In part it was a British reaction to the deeds of Rao Tula Ram a Ahir/Yadav chieftain of Rewari
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rao_Tula_Ram
This is the same Rao Tula Ram Rd. in New Delhi. The Ahirs/Yadavs for long demanded a status as Kshatriyas. The Indian Army did start recruiting Ahirs and they formed all of 13 Kumaon Charlie Company that laid down their lives at Rezang La in 1962. The Ahirs, I think never got their demand to have some sort of memorial in Ahirwal that is the Rewari, Mathura area for the events at Rezang La. A gesture of this sort will go a long way to sway the Yadavs towards the BJP.
In UP the dynamic is between Jats in Western UP, Yadavs all over UP, Kurmis in chiefly eastern UP and Purvanchal along with Mauryas(Kushwahas) and going into Bihar, the Mauryas(Kushwahas) become dominant at least in 6-7 Lok Sabha constituencies. Of course Yadavs are the dominant OBCs in both Bihar and UP. Kurmis and Mauryas are both OBCs. This is a complicated caste politics that plays out in election after election in UP and Bihar along with the Thakurs, the Bhumihars and Brahmins. It is not going to go away soon.
In Rae Bareli, the demographics favors Brahmins. You would think this then is positive given Ram Mandir and so on. No. Other factors are at work. Manoj Pandey the SP chief whip and former confidant of Tipoo( yes that is indeed the nickname of Akhilesh Yadav like Tipoo Sultan) left the SP party claiming it is no longer the party whose philosophy he embraces given Tipoo did not go to the pran pratishtha. He then embraced the BJP. All good, but in his mind the Brahmin Pandey also thought that as a quid pro quo he should be offered Rae Bareli as a MP seat. This did not happen and he sulked and did not appear on the dais with other leaders. He is a bit of a "strongman" in the Brahmin community and because of his past political afiliations, has some clout in the Yadav community, which has the potential to tip things in the favor of the BJP. At a late stage May 13th, Amit Shah made attempts at a rapprochement with Pandey and eventually Pandey appeared together at a few rallies coming out of his sulk. Now it is unclear if he has undercut the vote and done irreversible damage, or the last minute attempts by the BJP leadership to fix the issue has solved the problem. Honestly, they should have gone after Raga hammer and tongs and tried all means to deprive him of a victory. It would be a great point to say that he could not win his Lok Sabha seat. It really does not matter that the people of Rae Bareli know that they live in a sh**thole where the sitting MP could not even release discretionary funds to fix roads, the railway station which is an eyesore. This is now being improved under Amrit Bharat. Doubling all the way to Amethi and Varanasi and Lucknow and a new station building at Rae Bareli, wide platforms and added train services to major metros have all happened only recently and not due to Sonia. There were plants here like the telephone exchange plant and so on which with the cell phone era was dealt a deathblow. Only the Integral Coach Factory remains and gives some employment as a symbol of Sonia's largesse.
The British classified the Yadavs(who are Ahirs or Doodhwalas) as a backward caste. In part it was a British reaction to the deeds of Rao Tula Ram a Ahir/Yadav chieftain of Rewari
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rao_Tula_Ram
This is the same Rao Tula Ram Rd. in New Delhi. The Ahirs/Yadavs for long demanded a status as Kshatriyas. The Indian Army did start recruiting Ahirs and they formed all of 13 Kumaon Charlie Company that laid down their lives at Rezang La in 1962. The Ahirs, I think never got their demand to have some sort of memorial in Ahirwal that is the Rewari, Mathura area for the events at Rezang La. A gesture of this sort will go a long way to sway the Yadavs towards the BJP.
In UP the dynamic is between Jats in Western UP, Yadavs all over UP, Kurmis in chiefly eastern UP and Purvanchal along with Mauryas(Kushwahas) and going into Bihar, the Mauryas(Kushwahas) become dominant at least in 6-7 Lok Sabha constituencies. Of course Yadavs are the dominant OBCs in both Bihar and UP. Kurmis and Mauryas are both OBCs. This is a complicated caste politics that plays out in election after election in UP and Bihar along with the Thakurs, the Bhumihars and Brahmins. It is not going to go away soon.
Last edited by vsunder on 28 May 2024 08:50, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
This election is way too long. They really should have combined the last three Phayzes into two. There is a lot of "time-pass" analysis going on now.
Anyway, Shawn Jay has explained his prediction of total seats including predictions for Phayze 7: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EqGGaChfeY
His "most probable" numbers are 336 for BJP and 385 for NDA.
This is quite similar to my predictions before the election start. I stick to my statement made back then, i.e. BJP should comfortably reach 330 and NDA around 380.
From here onwards, my comments:
1) Again, reference to my previous post with Wiki leaks on all three LS elections 2014, 2019, 2024. Accessing/bookmarking this is useful. viewtopic.php?p=2616921#p2616921
2) Anything beyond the above numbers (330 BJP/380 NDA) is not easily "predictable", since it depends on BJP/NDA being able to convert odd seats here and there with small margins. There are many states this time where BJP/NDA can spring surprises. To be fair, this also applies to any potential underperformance by NDA (<330). These things cannot be reliably picked up by commentators.
3) June 1 exit polls with sufficient sampling and good methodology *may* pick up some effects of this nature. For example, see the graphs in the Wiki links which are quite interesting:
LS 2014: Opinion polls averages over time plateau-ed at about 275 for NDA before the election started. Exit poll averages were 283 for NDA. Final result was 336 for NDA. In addition to polling error, one important thing is that the party going in with higher momentum will have an advantage in converting close contests.
The vote share estimates were already going upwards before the election started:
...and the actual result was 38.5% vote share for NDA, which is even higher than the extrapolation of the above prediction graph.
LS 2019: Similar trends! Opinion polls plateau-ed at 275, but exit polls picked up a significant uptick > 300. Final result was 353. Again, the NDA vote share was going up, and was 45% (about 2-3% higher than the opinion and exit polls). Like I said before, the polls cannot pick up these differences easily since their error margins are about 3% in vote share.
LS 2024:
Look at the estimated NDA vote share trend in the last three weeks leading to the election (it reached 47%):
It's a very sharp increase, which indicates a very high momentum building up for NDA just before the election. I think the election was well timed. Among many things, RJB consecration followed by the first Ram Navami in the RJB temple.
That graph is looking like it's going to be well past 50% by the time the election is over. Even Dr. BB has predicted 50+% vote for NDA last week. Once 50% is crossed, many things can start to happen, i.e. seats previously considered "down to the wire" may be won with clear margin, and previously "lost" seats could be won by thin margins.
So, there is still significant potential for surprises on June 4, i.e. BJP going well past 330 and NDA reaching/crossing 400.
Of course, any loss of momentum/poor voting day management during the election would lead to the reverse effect. However, as the election has progressed I did not see any major developments that slowed the NDA momentum. If anything, its the INDI morons that have likely antagonized the majority of voters with crazy statements and nautankis. Similarly, if some people think NDA may have had some booth management issues, then one can argue that the INDI and non-aligned parties have done a much worse job, with many parties not even making any serious effort.
At the end of the day: Ram naam japo, hari guna gaao.
Anyway, Shawn Jay has explained his prediction of total seats including predictions for Phayze 7: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EqGGaChfeY
His "most probable" numbers are 336 for BJP and 385 for NDA.
This is quite similar to my predictions before the election start. I stick to my statement made back then, i.e. BJP should comfortably reach 330 and NDA around 380.
From here onwards, my comments:
1) Again, reference to my previous post with Wiki leaks on all three LS elections 2014, 2019, 2024. Accessing/bookmarking this is useful. viewtopic.php?p=2616921#p2616921
2) Anything beyond the above numbers (330 BJP/380 NDA) is not easily "predictable", since it depends on BJP/NDA being able to convert odd seats here and there with small margins. There are many states this time where BJP/NDA can spring surprises. To be fair, this also applies to any potential underperformance by NDA (<330). These things cannot be reliably picked up by commentators.
3) June 1 exit polls with sufficient sampling and good methodology *may* pick up some effects of this nature. For example, see the graphs in the Wiki links which are quite interesting:
LS 2014: Opinion polls averages over time plateau-ed at about 275 for NDA before the election started. Exit poll averages were 283 for NDA. Final result was 336 for NDA. In addition to polling error, one important thing is that the party going in with higher momentum will have an advantage in converting close contests.
The vote share estimates were already going upwards before the election started:
...and the actual result was 38.5% vote share for NDA, which is even higher than the extrapolation of the above prediction graph.
LS 2019: Similar trends! Opinion polls plateau-ed at 275, but exit polls picked up a significant uptick > 300. Final result was 353. Again, the NDA vote share was going up, and was 45% (about 2-3% higher than the opinion and exit polls). Like I said before, the polls cannot pick up these differences easily since their error margins are about 3% in vote share.
LS 2024:
Look at the estimated NDA vote share trend in the last three weeks leading to the election (it reached 47%):
It's a very sharp increase, which indicates a very high momentum building up for NDA just before the election. I think the election was well timed. Among many things, RJB consecration followed by the first Ram Navami in the RJB temple.
That graph is looking like it's going to be well past 50% by the time the election is over. Even Dr. BB has predicted 50+% vote for NDA last week. Once 50% is crossed, many things can start to happen, i.e. seats previously considered "down to the wire" may be won with clear margin, and previously "lost" seats could be won by thin margins.
So, there is still significant potential for surprises on June 4, i.e. BJP going well past 330 and NDA reaching/crossing 400.
Of course, any loss of momentum/poor voting day management during the election would lead to the reverse effect. However, as the election has progressed I did not see any major developments that slowed the NDA momentum. If anything, its the INDI morons that have likely antagonized the majority of voters with crazy statements and nautankis. Similarly, if some people think NDA may have had some booth management issues, then one can argue that the INDI and non-aligned parties have done a much worse job, with many parties not even making any serious effort.
At the end of the day: Ram naam japo, hari guna gaao.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 28 May 2024 08:53, edited 3 times in total.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
https://x.com/Antardrshti/status/1795156393206612383
2024 Probability Predictions of:
BJP > 400 - 0.0003%
BJP > 370 - 1.6432 %
BJP > 350 - 17.67%
BJP > 337 - 50.01%
BJP > 320 - 65.62%
BJP > 303 - 91.26%
BJP > 282 - 97.5%
BJP > 272 - 99.5%
BJP > 262 - 99.975%
BJP > 250 - 99.99972%
BJP > 240 - 99.99999%
2019 Probability
How predictions work. It is based on probability. Probability of
BJP > 350 - 0.0003%
BJP > 325 - 1.25 %
BJP > 300 - 8.33%
BJP > 290 - 31.25%
BJP > 280 - 50.05%
BJP > 275 - 62.5%
BJP > 265 - 97.5%
BJP > 250 - 99.5%
BJP > 225 - 99.975%
BJP > 200 - 99.993%
BJP > 150 - 99.99999%
11:11 PM · May 16, 2019
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
@chetak gaaru, that fellow AK is a smooth and slick. He talked over the interviewer and sort of came out ahead. 
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Chetakji and Anujanji
https://youtu.be/R0kR6KF6hQc
Here's another video
Its a definitive strategy to Name and Shame the Middle Class Voter
So to all the dhoti-shivering folks these are becoming more vociferous and that indicates only one thing : Dotty are done for so Let the blame game begin
https://youtu.be/R0kR6KF6hQc
Here's another video
Its a definitive strategy to Name and Shame the Middle Class Voter
So to all the dhoti-shivering folks these are becoming more vociferous and that indicates only one thing : Dotty are done for so Let the blame game begin
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
@KL Dubey I agree with your assessment regarding the probable outcome of the 2024 elections and I may have said the same numbers as quoted by you above. I do not think however, it would have been better to have just 6 phases. It would have stretched out the companies of CRPF too thin esp. in states like WB where 9 seats go to the polls in Phase 7 and all of Punjab. These states need a full complement of central forces, so that intimidation of voters, destruction of polling booths etc do not take place. All will be in play otherwise as has happened before in these states. I am not saying the TMC goons have been cowed down, but they have been pinned to use a chess terminology with a overwhelming presence of central forces and one has heard almost nothing about blatant examples as did happen in the vidhan sabha polls in say WB.
They could try compressing days between phases, but again there is the logistics. They have to fly out CRPF companies from one state to another group of states and this will involve using IAF transports for the companies and their equipment and then a trip by road to remote polling places. The election commission has a pretty good idea as to how to move these companies like men on a chess board and have optimized the time needed to deploy the forces and rotate them accordingly and so the one week time lag may be the minimal amount of time with some slack to take care of unknown emergencies.
They could try compressing days between phases, but again there is the logistics. They have to fly out CRPF companies from one state to another group of states and this will involve using IAF transports for the companies and their equipment and then a trip by road to remote polling places. The election commission has a pretty good idea as to how to move these companies like men on a chess board and have optimized the time needed to deploy the forces and rotate them accordingly and so the one week time lag may be the minimal amount of time with some slack to take care of unknown emergencies.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Sumeet ji,
Just like in any casino, things are gamed to ensure that the house always wins, despite some "lucky" punter breaking through once in a while to cash out "big".
There will also be a fair amount of punters, each making a little bit of money, just enough to get the others interested enough to keep coming back in the hope of a big win at the satta bazzar which is always gamed so that the people running it always win
satta bazzars are a mug's game, and the odds are continuously tailored to keep the house winning. When large numbers of punters bet in a particular way, the odds always drop significantly.
"durty" harry said it truthfully: do you feel lucky, punk ...
So, you pays your money and you takes your choice,
caveat emptor onlee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38mE6ba3qj8
Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
India elections: PM Narendra Modi claims he has been chosen by God
https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... sen-by-god
https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... sen-by-god
-
Mukesh.Kumar
- BRFite
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: 06 Dec 2009 14:09
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Anyone here present on the ground in Calcutta and suburbs? Of the 58 seats going to the polls on Saturday, 9 are from West Bengal.
Any chance that BJP will make any inroads in this bastion?
- DumDum- Saugata Ray (TMC)
- Barasat- Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC)
- Basirhat- Nusrat Jahan (TMC)-Sandeshkhali is part of the constituency
- Jaynagar-Pratima Mandal (TMC)
- Mathurapur-Chodhary Mohan Jatua (TMC)
- Diamond Harbour- Abhishekh Banerjee (TMC) Didi's heir apparent and nephew
- Jadavpur-Mimi Chackrobarty (TMC)
- Kolkata Dakshin- Mala Roy (TMC)
- Kolkata Uttar- Sudip Banerjee (TMC)-Have heard he is not campaigning actively as he has some terminal illness
Any chance that BJP will make any inroads in this bastion?
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Watch Shawn's analysis which is based on ground inputs (I bosted the veediyo in my last bost). He is conservatively assuming 0/9 for BJP from WB in this Phayze.Mukesh.Kumar wrote: ↑28 May 2024 16:10 Anyone here present on the ground in Calcutta and suburbs? Of the 58 seats going to the polls on Saturday, 9 are from West Bengal.Any chance that BJP will make any inroads in this bastion?
- DumDum- Saugata Ray (TMC)
- Barasat- Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC)
- Basirhat- Nusrat Jahan (TMC)-Sandeshkhali is part of the constituency
- Jaynagar-Pratima Mandal (TMC)
- Mathurapur-Chodhary Mohan Jatua (TMC)
- Diamond Harbour- Abhishekh Banerjee (TMC) Didi's heir apparent and nephew
- Jadavpur-Mimi Chackrobarty (TMC)
- Kolkata Dakshin- Mala Roy (TMC)
- Kolkata Uttar- Sudip Banerjee (TMC)-Have heard he is not campaigning actively as he has some terminal illness
BJP is in the contest mainly in Dum Dum and Kolkata Uttar, maybe also in Basirhat. Rest have been demographically engineered by MoMo didi, hard to beat. Hopefully with implementation of CAA this situation will change in future. Plus let us see if security forces and EC can enforce proper voting.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 28 May 2024 16:57, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
I do agree. I just wish they had more personnel pulled from the different services. I understand it "ain't dat simple", though.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
This is a well orchestrated strategy to discredit the outcome of the election.
When the results come out and they do not win, then they will claim EVM fraud (among other things).
https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/17 ... 0664923453 ---> JAIRAM RAMESH - "We have already crossed 272 & we will win over 350 seats. INDIA Govt from next week."
When the results come out and they do not win, then they will claim EVM fraud (among other things).
https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/17 ... 0664923453 ---> JAIRAM RAMESH - "We have already crossed 272 & we will win over 350 seats. INDIA Govt from next week."
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Rakesh wrote: ↑28 May 2024 17:37 This is a well orchestrated strategy to discredit the outcome of the election.
When the results come out and they do not win, then they will claim EVM fraud (among other things).
https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/17 ... 0664923453 ---> JAIRAM RAMESH - "We have already crossed 272 & we will win over 350 seats. INDIA Govt from next week."
all losers do .. are any of us expecting the kind of con gressis to react otherwise
Last edited by drnayar on 28 May 2024 21:12, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
@Mukesh.Kumar As KLD has written it appears 0/9 for the WB part of Phase 7. Let me explain. First Diamond Harbor. It is a very safe seat for the TMC and the demographics is such that "samuday vishesh" makes up 40% of that constituency so the heir apparent stands from there. The city of Kolkata has a lot of bhadralok who detest the BJP and all it stands for. These are the tired old mentally colonized crowd who have long lost their way and precious little intellectual content comes out anymore of any serious value from the bhadraloks. They can congregate in the colonial Calcutta club on June 4 and commiserate with fellow bhadraloks and drown their misery in gin and tonics on June 4th.
North Kolkata there is some chance the BJP can make a fight. The Marwari community is centered around North Central Kolkata and its environs like Burrabazaar with its rabbit warren of narrow lanes. Too much cannot be made of this either, as the Marwari community in the past has openly expressed support for Mamata and being a mercantile community will first look to maintain and preserve its business interests in a post election scenario and will be averse to targeted violence against it if the decision is adverse and BJP wins. Of course the hope is that now Modi will act with a stronger hand and large scale violence will trigger Central rule on WB. Several things have to happen for that, and one is a mandate for Modi that is clear and unequivocal.
Here is a little clip from LS 2019 from Diamond Harbor, leaves no doubt about how the wind blows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHgTkNiOo4s
North Kolkata there is some chance the BJP can make a fight. The Marwari community is centered around North Central Kolkata and its environs like Burrabazaar with its rabbit warren of narrow lanes. Too much cannot be made of this either, as the Marwari community in the past has openly expressed support for Mamata and being a mercantile community will first look to maintain and preserve its business interests in a post election scenario and will be averse to targeted violence against it if the decision is adverse and BJP wins. Of course the hope is that now Modi will act with a stronger hand and large scale violence will trigger Central rule on WB. Several things have to happen for that, and one is a mandate for Modi that is clear and unequivocal.
Here is a little clip from LS 2019 from Diamond Harbor, leaves no doubt about how the wind blows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHgTkNiOo4s
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Dr Saab, there is a pattern in this kind of bokwas.
https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/17 ... 4688050316 ---> MALLIKARJUN KHARGE - BJP is losing 2024 elections. After defeat, BJP will not come to power in India for many years.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
It’s a well orchestrated strategy: Yogendra Yadav said the same thing yesterday and he claims he is a psephologist.
Pappu says the same thing as well.
So does Ghungrooseth - plus he claims of an internal power struggle in BJP to arise because of this.
Pappu says the same thing as well.
So does Ghungrooseth - plus he claims of an internal power struggle in BJP to arise because of this.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
this guy was arrested by Ktaka police in Goa over his criticism of congress manifestoBhikuMhatre (Modi's Family) @MumbaichaDon
Was off Twitter for 10 days. Saw today that many Nationalists are bit shaky & worried about repeat of 2004.
From ground reports which I collected on 5th & 6th phase, I can say that "As Expected", BJP HAS ALREADY FORMED GOVT & NDA is moving strongly to trounce Opposition. 7th phase will be carried by .
@narendramodi
Ji on his shoulders alone as his candidature in Varanasi is going to have BIG IMPACT in all adjoining seats in UP & Bihar along with Himachal & Punjab too. You are already seeing Mamata Banerjee's frustration to understand what's happening in Bengal.
No need to worry at all. MODI IS BACK ALREADY & last phase is ONLY to increase numbers to create new History.
जो भक्त है महादेव जी का, उसे डर फिर किस बात का? Jai Mahakal
https://x.com/MumbaichaDon/status/1795463219290738820
His story
https://x.com/MumbaichaDon/status/1795370782241308775
Last edited by vijayk on 28 May 2024 20:29, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
If I remember, this perhaps happened during 2019 also. But why? Anyone can provide the background logic for this?
If you are losing, why be bombastic and claim outright victory. I can speculate
1) Influence remaining 58seats
2) They genuinely believe they are winning - Some Sen or Mukherjee guy made pappu out of pappu last time
3) They think it will be close, so marshall the fence sitter
4) Signal to outside forces/ judges that election was fraud.
Please add to teh list
If you are losing, why be bombastic and claim outright victory. I can speculate
1) Influence remaining 58seats
2) They genuinely believe they are winning - Some Sen or Mukherjee guy made pappu out of pappu last time
3) They think it will be close, so marshall the fence sitter
4) Signal to outside forces/ judges that election was fraud.
Please add to teh list
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
5) Not live in reality because of the mental illnessfanne wrote: ↑28 May 2024 20:28 If I remember, this perhaps happened during 2019 also. But why? Anyone can provide the background logic for this?
If you are losing, why be bombastic and claim outright victory. I can speculate
1) Influence remaining 58seats
2) They genuinely believe they are winning - Some Sen or Mukherjee guy made pappu out of pappu last time
3) They think it will be close, so marshall the fence sitter
4) Signal to outside forces/ judges that election was fraud.
Please add to teh list
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
https://x.com/MrsGandhi/status/1795421528512688247
Massive attack on Freedom of Press in #Punjab.
Emergency has been declared by Arvind Kejriwal.
All channels of #Zee News & Zee Media have been blacked out in Punjab.
Control freak Kejriwal is trying to throttle the voices of those who question his misdeeds!!
Massive attack on Freedom of Press in #Punjab.
Emergency has been declared by Arvind Kejriwal.
All channels of #Zee News & Zee Media have been blacked out in Punjab.
Control freak Kejriwal is trying to throttle the voices of those who question his misdeeds!!
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Punjab voting is on June 4th .. all NDA needs to do is build up social media narratives ..do a khujli on khujlivijayk wrote: ↑28 May 2024 20:59 https://x.com/MrsGandhi/status/1795421528512688247
Massive attack on Freedom of Press in #Punjab.
Emergency has been declared by Arvind Kejriwal.
All channels of #Zee News & Zee Media have been blacked out in Punjab.
Control freak Kejriwal is trying to throttle the voices of those who question his misdeeds!!
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Any info on what Zee News Hindi broadcast that got Kejriwal upset?
It is precisely that info that we have to propagate vigorously on social media.
Searching, I found this:
Kejriwal Latest Update: Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has suffered two big shocks. On one hand, the Supreme Court has rejected the application to increase the bail of Kejriwal. On the other hand, people are opposing CM Kejriwal's rally today in Zirakpur, Punjab.
https://zeenews.india.com/video/news/de ... 53034.html
It is precisely that info that we have to propagate vigorously on social media.
Searching, I found this:
Kejriwal Latest Update: Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has suffered two big shocks. On one hand, the Supreme Court has rejected the application to increase the bail of Kejriwal. On the other hand, people are opposing CM Kejriwal's rally today in Zirakpur, Punjab.
https://zeenews.india.com/video/news/de ... 53034.html
Last edited by A_Gupta on 28 May 2024 22:22, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Karnataka has been reduced to a mere ATM by Congress.
It is unfortunate that Chandrashekaran had to commit suicide being unable to bear the pressure of a Congress Minister & senior bureaucrats to siphon funds meant for welfare of Schedule Tribes.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 480466.cms
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Its also to reassure the foreign funders that we did a lot of hard work (i.e., we are not losers, please keep funding us)....and "if the election is truly democratic" we are confident of winning.fanne wrote: ↑28 May 2024 20:28 If I remember, this perhaps happened during 2019 also. But why? Anyone can provide the background logic for this?
If you are losing, why be bombastic and claim outright victory. I can speculate
1) Influence remaining 58seats
2) They genuinely believe they are winning - Some Sen or Mukherjee guy made pappu out of pappu last time
3) They think it will be close, so marshall the fence sitter
4) Signal to outside forces/ judges that election was fraud.
Please add to teh list
-
S_Madhukar
- BRFite
- Posts: 854
- Joined: 27 Mar 2019 18:15
Re: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]
Yoya is master of this statistic subterfuge. The ecosystem is full of piranhas feeding off each other. Sorrows gang hasn’t realised these shenanigans yet but then their $$ come off the printer so no bother to them either 