2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[Sumeet]

Delhi (Pradeep Gupta)

BJP: 6-7

INDIA: 0-1

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Sumeet]

thanks Dilbu. Please do this everyday till 4th June 2024 6 PM

[vijayk]

Looks like Jagan is out of AP

[A_Gupta]

Pradeep Bhandari on the Charvaka podcast yesterday said that those who think that the NDA will be routed in Maharashtra are in for a surprise.

[fanne]

Please look at today’s Chanakya ‘s website. Numbers are mind boggling

https://www.todayschanakya.com/loksabha ... lysis.html

[williams]

Please look at today’s Chanakya ‘s website. Numbers are mind boggling

https://www.todayschanakya.com/loksabha ... lysis.html

Amazing 34% vote share in TN. Dravidian shackles is broken for sure

[Ashokk]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2024-06-01

[vijayk]

SHOCKING NEWS Today's Chanakya predicts 10 seats for NDA in Tamilnadu.

BJP+ : 10
DMK+ : 29
ADMK : 0

[vijayk]

Times Algebra @TimesAlgebraIND

SHOCKING NEWS Today's Chanakaya predicts that Madhavi Latha will defeat Asaduddin Owaisi in Hyderabad

HUGE Today's Chanakaya predicts 4 seats for BJP in Kerala & 12 in Telangana. Congress can win only 5 in Telangana.

BJP-Congress both can win 4-4 everyone in Punjab

[AkshaySG]

India Today-My Axis predictes 18-20 wins out of 21 in Orissa. Also massive gains in AP & TG

[AshishA]

India Today-My Axis predictes 18-20 wins out of 21 in Orissa. Also massive gains in AP & TG

This is gonna be the biggest news. To unseat Naveen Patnaik after 25 years.

[krithivas]

Sardesai has declared #400Paar!

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

Today’s Chanakya so far
https://twitter.com/TodaysChanakya/stat ... 2901699964


#TCPoll
All India Tally (543 Seats) LS 2024
Seat Projection
BJP 335 ± 15 Seats
NDA 400 ± 15 Seats
Congress 50 ± 11 Seats
INDIA 107 ± 11 Seats
Others 36 ± 9 Seats

[Anujan]

SHOCKING NEWS Today's Chanakya predicts 10 seats for NDA in Tamilnadu.

BJP+ : 10
DMK+ : 29
ADMK : 0

Axis-My India is a bit muted for TN 2-4 for NDA

Overall

India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll 2024 Live Updates: NDA to win 361-401 seats, 131-166 for INDIA

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2024-06-01

[Anujan]

Everyone giving 350+ to NDA

Republic TV Matrize 353-368 118-133 43-48

NDTV India 365 142 36

Jan Ki Baat 362-392 141-161 10-20

India News D-Dynamics 371 125 47

Republic TV PMARQ 359 154 30

You mean to say noted Psephologist Shree Jairam Ramesh was wrong?

INDIA bloc PM within 48 hrs, party with max seats 'natural claimant' to leadership, says Jairam Ramesh

[Tanaji]

Everyone is predicting 23-24 each for NDA and Indi in Maharashtra. The INDIA has done well , and it bodes worse for NDA in state elections.

Ajit Pawar faction is predicted to get a solitary seat.

[williams]

SHOCKING NEWS Today's Chanakya predicts 10 seats for NDA in Tamilnadu.

BJP+ : 10
DMK+ : 29
ADMK : 0

I am looking at various numbers. It sounds like ADMK is replaced with BJP. In that case 10 is possible. It will be shocking of course. But if they get 10 in TN then > 400 should become a reality. Central schemes are making inroads even in developed states should be the take away.

[asgkhan]

I hope the combo of Modi+Shah+Nadda take the decision of keeping the CRPF in West Bengal for 3 months atleast. Maomata will unleash bloodbath to send a message to those voters as 2026 is at risk.

[Kati]

All the psephologists are wrong ......

Here comes the real projection:

VIDEO | Lok Sabha Elections 2024: “According to the people’s survey that we conducted, INDIA alliance is going to win at least 295 seats,” says CPI (M) leader Sitaram Yechury (@SitaramYechury) after INDIA bloc's meeting in Delhi.#LSPolls2024WithPTI #LokSabhaElections2024… pic.twitter.com/OlTJSEwOIL
— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) June 1, 2024

[Kati]

^^^^

This comes from Ganashakti (the bengali language CPM party organ)

[A_Gupta]

Everyone who attended the INDI get-together in the past day has come out with this 295+ statement. There is a similar statement from Kejriwal.

[Kati]

Communist Party of India (Marxist-Lennist) - Liberation: in its editorial of May 16th proclaimed:

মোদীর ফ্যাসিবাদী জমানার নিশ্চিত পরাজয় এখন আর মাত্র কয়েক সপ্তাহ দূরে!

("Modi Regime's guaranteed defeat is just a few weeks away")

[williams]

I hope the combo of Modi+Shah+Nadda take the decision of keeping the CRPF in West Bengal for 3 months atleast. Maomata will unleash bloodbath to send a message to those voters as 2026 is at risk.

I would rather collect evidence and dismiss the govt on law and order emergency grounds and then keep CRPF in there. This is outrageous. If BJP gets > 400, they need to tell who is the boss. Most of my friends in UP vouch that BJP gets such drastic support due to the way Yogi Ji handled crime with an iron first. Bengal needs that if citizens need to walk fearless in the state.

[williams]

Everyone who attended the INDI get-together in the past day has come out with this 295+ statement. There is a similar statement from Kejriwal.

They are getting the training from CCTV, where outrageous things can be announced with very little data backing it. And hence they decided they will not debate exit polls.

[Ashokk]

Extra Security For Bengal, Andhra Pradesh After Counting Of Votes, Say Sources

New Delhi:The Election Commission has arranged for massive security during counting and after, for two states that have made headlines with poll-related violence. Central forces will be stationed Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal for 15 days after the votes are counted on Tuesday, sources said. Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh have been provided with security forces for two days after the counting day.

[Kati]

Bangladeshi media is tormented by two most recent news:
(a) NaMo is coming back with a bigger mandate:
(b) In Saudi school textbooks' latest edition is shocking: map of Palestine is missing and all the anti-Israeli rhetorics have gone missing.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/web-on ... -must-stop
The conspiracy theories about elections in India must stop
In India, fears about the election are being fanned. Right now, an online mob is being prepared. If these people do not get what they want, will they accept the results on June 4?

A few days ago, the online news portal Wire uploaded an astonishing report on the ongoing 2024 general elections. They claimed that the number of votes in the first five phases had dropped by almost 20 crore in comparison to the 2019 elections. Of course, that was nowhere near true.

The website later changed the story saying they had miscalculated since they "considered the number of eligible voters released by the PIB for each phase of the 2019 elections, instead of the absolute numbers of the post-election turnout to arrive at an incorrect conclusion". Their newer numbers were incorrect too. But by then the screenshots of their original report were shared in WhatsApp groups and picked up by eager YouTubers. It added to the already large number of conspiracy theories about what is happening at the Election Commission.

For anyone who cares, here is the truth. In the first five phases, the number of votes is actually up by some 2 crore, not down by 20 crore. But how many people will go to the website of the Election Commission, download the official report, add up the numbers for 427 seats that have voted so far, and check? It is far too boring for almost anyone. And online content creators know exactly that. That is why the conspiracy theories.

Take the case of “Form 17C,” which is now suddenly internet famous. Why is the Election Commission hiding it from us? But they are not. There are some 10.5 lakh polling stations in India. Wherever voting has been completed, the candidates or their polling agents have already been given Form 17C, containing the booth level data. So lakhs of people already have this form. If they are serious, they can upload it anywhere they want.

But why won’t the Election Commission upload these forms on their own website? Okay, it was never done before, but so what? Let us have even more transparency. You could, but let us be clear about what the conspiracy theorists are doing. Next they will ask for hourwise data to be uploaded. After that, maybe CCTV footage of voting at each booth, from at least six different camera angles. This is not about transparency, but trolling. And anytime the EC turns down any request, it can be used to create fear that the election is rigged. This is dangerous. It seems they want mass unrest if the election does not go their way

[vijayk]

What will George $oreA$$ do now? Change Diaper and fight for another day!!

What about $*itholes in SD led by joker Gar$hitty? Back to Manipur from Chennai?

[chetak]

face of thug @sardesairajdeep when India today projected vote % share of west bengal #ExitPoll









Summary of all exit polls

[Anujan]

All the psephologists are wrong ......

Here comes the real projection:

VIDEO | Lok Sabha Elections 2024: “According to the people’s survey that we conducted, INDIA alliance is going to win at least 295 seats,” says CPI (M) leader Sitaram Yechury (@SitaramYechury) after INDIA bloc's meeting in Delhi.#LSPolls2024WithPTI #LokSabhaElections2024… pic.twitter.com/OlTJSEwOIL
— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) June 1, 2024

The noted comment about the commie system

We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us

should be changed to

They pretend to vote for us, we pretend we are winning

[g.sarkar]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/exit-po ... ts-5793719
Exit Poll Results 2024 Highlights: Most Exit Polls Predict Over 350 Seats For BJP-Led NDA
Poll of Exit Poll 2024 Highlights: A big win for the BJP-led NDA has been predicted by seven exit polls.
India News, NDTV News desk, June 01, 2024
Exit Poll Results 2024 Highlights: Most Exit Polls Predict Over 350 Seats For BJP-Led NDA
2024 Poll of Exit Poll India Election: Exit polls are expected to be released after 6.30 PM
Exit Poll Results 2024 Highlights: After a marathon Lok Sabha elections 2024 - spread over six weeks, the second longest general election since 1951-52 - it's time for Exit Polls. A big win for the ruling BJP-led NDA has been predicted by twelve exit polls - India Today- Axis My India (361-401), News 24-Today's Chanakya (400), ABP News-C Voter (353-383), Republic Bharat- P Marq (359), India News- D-Dyanamics (371), Republic Bharat- Matrize (353-368), Dainik Bhaskar (281-350), News Nation (342-378), TV 9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat (342), Times Now-ETG (358), India TV- CNX (362-392) and Jan Ki Baat (362-392).
The exit polls have also predicted NDA dominance in Karnataka and Maharashtra and Left-led alliance's rout in Kerala. In Bengal, the exit polls predicted a better performance for the BJP than it did the last time (22). Most exit polls have said that the BJP will now be the single-largest party in Bengal in terms of Lok Sabha seats.
......
Gautam

[Amber G.]

AajTak Axis My India
BJP+ : 361-401, 'INDIA' : 131-166

News24 Today's Chanakya
BJP+ : 400, 'INDIA' : 107

NDTV Jan Ki Baat
BJP+ : 377 +-15, 'INDIA' : 151 +-10

India TV CNX
BJP+ : 371-401, 'INDIA' : 109-139

ABP CVoter
BJP+ : 353-383, 'INDIA' : 152-182

Republic MATRIZE
BJP+ : 353-368, 'INDIA' : 118-133

Republic PMARQ
BJP+ : 359, 'INDIA' : 154

TimesNow ETG
BJP+ : 358, 'INDIA' : 152

TV9 Polstrat Peoples Insight.
BJP+ : 346, 'INDIA' : 162

News18
BJP+ : 355-370, 'INDIA' : 125-140

[Amber G.]

Everyone giving 350+ to NDA

Republic TV Matrize 353-368 118-133 43-48

NDTV India 365 142 36

Jan Ki Baat 362-392 141-161 10-20

India News D-Dynamics 371 125 47

Republic TV PMARQ 359 154 30

You mean to say noted Psephologist Shree Jairam Ramesh was wrong?

INDIA bloc PM within 48 hrs, party with max seats 'natural claimant' to leadership, says Jairam Ramesh

"Oh, joy! BRF has another amazing day! Exit polls show the fascists are winning . Terrible day for India. Exit polls predict fascists are winning. Big time. Yet again. No hope left for democracy. Free speech is dead. I can’t breathe. I feel nauseous. Numb. Sick. Time has finally come to leave these shores forever and set up a Media house in my own country

[A_Gupta]

If it turns out, as I expect, that the women's vote was majorly in favor of the BJP, then I also expect magazine articles and academic articles on "Modi's Naari Shakti & Devi worship as the genesis of female Hindu nationalist fascism".

The reality which they won't pay any attention to is that it is likely "Rasoi, Paani aur Makaan" that won Modi the women's vote.

[Sumeet]

Rajdeep getting befitting response from Rahul Kanwal, Rahul Verma, Rajat Sethi:

First time hearing Rajdeep calling Narendra Modiji You can view first 23 mins to see all of this.

BJP-led NDA Projected To Win 361-401 Seats, As Per Axis My India Exit Poll
India Today

[KL Dubey]

These are the 5 exit polling agencies that covered both 2019 and 2024 LS elections. Two of them also covered the 2014 election.

List below only has the pollster name, not any TV channels that may have hired them:

Agency 2014 2019 2024
Axis NA 352 381
Chanakya 340 350 400
CNX NA 300 386
CVoter 289 287 368
Jan Ki Baat NA 305 377

Takeaways:

- All of them are estimating much higher numbers for NDA in 2024 relative to previous two elections.

- Axis got it right in 2019. Chanakya remarkably got it right in both 2014 and 2019. If we consider these guys the most reliable, it looks like 400 is within reach.

- The other three (CNX/CVoter/JKB) have been on the lower side in 2014 and 2019, but all of them estimate much higher numbers this time, which is also a good sign.

Additionally:

- Shawn Jay's Jaipur Dialogues/Chintamani exit poll estimates 399 for NDA.
- Dr BB of 5forty3 says Modi sill has a strong chance of crossing 400.

In summary, June 4 looks like an exciting day for all the right reasons, i.e. we need not be too worried about NaMo and BJP returning with majority....but some main interests will be:

- how close NDA gets to 400 (or how much beyond, depending on your perspective)
- how NDA is doing in the "sunrise" states like TN, KL, WB, OD, TG
- some individual contests...such as Amethi, R Bareli, Koyambattur, Trivandrum, Hyderabad, etc

[Anujan]

Mudi should rejine if NDA does not cross 400

[Amber G.]

Mudi should rejine if NDA does not cross 400