2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[greatde]

1) BJP & Supporters have good presence on Twitter. This started pre-2014 itself. But not so much in Instagram, YouTube etc. They need to amp up the game. They dont have to do it themselves, but provide ideological, monetary & other forms of institutional support to citizens who want to become influencers on these platforms

Imo, twitter works because it is anonymous. BJP still has the untouchable element to prevent many openly supporting them, and that's the challenge with IG, YT where you reveal your face, identity, names. Also needs different groups, like travel, food, comedy vloggers to release political content at times. That's creates the eco-system.

The Ram Mandir invite, is a good example where many missed it, as they don't want to openly support them.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Deans]

very troubling signs for BJP in 18-25 and 25-35 age category. BJP is barely ahead or even

I have gone through the raw data of the Axis poll. These numbers are deceptive.

It is really NDA (49% of vote) vs INDIA (39%). Axis has included TMC in INDIA.
What he is calling Cong+ is actually INDIA. Axis is projecting a 21% share for Cong, though others incl PP are saying 17-18% which I believe
will be more accurate. BJP is 40-41% share so BJP beats Cong 2:1 in vote share
Hence, in every age group, BJP comfortably outperforms Congress. Among the youth, the difference is narrower than 2:1.

If INDIA (not Cong) has got 72% of Muslim (and Christian) votes and they form 17% of all voters, then NDA's 49% share (may be closer to 50%)
comes from 83% of voters, or 60% of the Hindu vote. Excluding TN & Kerala, the NDA has close to 65% of the Hindu vote, which is remarkable
consolidation.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

..........................

If INDIA (not Cong) has got 72% of Muslim (and Christian) votes and they form 17% of all voters, then NDA's 49% share (may be closer to 50%)
comes from 83% of voters, or 60% of the Hindu vote. Excluding TN & Kerala, the NDA has close to 65% of the Hindu vote, which is remarkable
consolidation.

I agree with you Deansji, arriving at it in a different way.

But then again, I would say that the Exit Polls are exaggerating a little. There are enough and many people who still disavow the BJP. If NDA got even 44% (5% less), then it's a sea of difference, sitting at about 50% of H vote. Let's see, I have realized that psephology is a more intractable subject than stock prediction.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

[sajo]

BJP will lose onlee.

I am trying not to Dhoti Shibber but the ghosts of 2004 are hauntingly still around troubling the panicjeets amongst us. Thanks to Dilbuji for injecting some hope into an otherwise distressed soul. Saar is needed to mark his attendance from 8 AM IST tomorrow periodically.

[KL Dubey]

Cross-posting in this thread. Will continue here.

The Axis exit poll data are quite interesting.

All vote share numbers have 3% error bar.

Across all groups NDA is either increasing or holding vote share, except for the greens.

Note the comparison is between the alliances/groups of 2019 (NDA, UPA, others) and 2024 (NDA, INDI, and others).

The "huge gains" for INDI are just redistributions between the erstwhile UPA and Others (nonaligned parties). Many parties not part of UPA are now in INDI.

The INDI alliance has failed, since they have not been able to reduce the NDA vote share.

Most of the INDI parties cannot help each other much since there are hardly any states in which two INDI parties have substantial enough vote share to add up.

In the few such states like KL and WB, they are actually not in alliance and have been fighting each other either officially or unofficially.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/MrSinha_/status/1797635411826909586
Salim a.k.a YY says Opposition are Nikkammas

[vijayk]

https://x.com/IyengarShashank/status/17 ... 2635735097

𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝑰𝒚𝒆𝒏𝒈𝒂𝒓 @IyengarShashank
This is for all those Hindus who believe in the I.N.D.I block .. don’t cry later if this is true.

[KL Dubey]

https://x.com/IyengarShashank/status/17 ... 2635735097

𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝑰𝒚𝒆𝒏𝒈𝒂𝒓 @IyengarShashank
This is for all those Hindus who believe in the I.N.D.I block .. don’t cry later if this is true.

This is banal/obvious stuff. You don't need Republic TV data for this. In 2019 the UPA ("Congress+") did not include TMC and SP which have the largest green vote banks in two very large states. This time the INDI ("Congress+") includes both these parties, which automatically adds a large number to their green votes.

However this will not have much impact. In both states the Congis have too meager a vote share to be of much help. In WB, they are actually contesting independent of TMC. And of course, TMC and SP cannot help each other. In 2019 LS election, Congis had a paltry 6.3% vote share in UP and 5.7% in WB. And it is questionable how much would get transferred to other INDI parties. In WB, the likes of Adhir Ranjan were openly exhorting Congi supporters to vote for BJP

In other words, the NDA seat tally will grow higher from 2019...and the remaining seats will be redistributed among INDI and Others mostly along the lines of who is in each group.

[Vayutuvan]

Instead of indi block, it would be more appropriate to say INDI Axis vs ND allies.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/pradip103/status/1797643568594682095

[chetak]

Their shocked faces are the actual reality of the exit polls



WATCH VIDEO


The video is about 0:29 minutes long

[chetak]

and yet ...

[chetak]

White House’s official singer Mary Millben Slams Rahul Gandhi

In listening to some of the speeches by Rahul on his ambitions, I can say that it’s very hard for any country or its citizens to sign up or vote for a leader who doesn’t speak well of his own country. The mark of a great leader is to value his heritage & that of country


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nskQbo9udZ0



Mary Millben Tells Rohan Dua: Rahul Gandhi Bad Mouths Own Country, No One Signs Up For Such Leaders






This video is about 35:19 minutes long



the shorter version is here



WATCH VIDEO


The video is about 0:51 minutes long

[chetak]

@rohanduaT02

BEWARE| I’m hearing India’s intelligence agencies have been supplied with recorded conversations of 17 @YouTubeIndia employees in India who explicitly wrote & spoke instructions on how to shadow ban any neutral coverage & promote anti @narendramodi trash.

Its a criminal offence to influence polls & I have been told investigations have begun

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/commentary/what ... difference
What Makes BJP A Party With A Difference

[vijayk]

[SRajesh]

Okay folks Shubharathri
Tomorrow when I wake up NaMo 3.0 hopefully well on its way
Dilbuji thoda Dhyan Rakcho

[vijayk]

Is it possible CON party is doing all this natak to divert security forces to get farmers into Delhi or allow China to invade?

[Abhijit]

Has Axis defined what/who constitutes the 'Others' ? E.g. in MH, there is almost nothing in the Others category - similarly in most other states - except OR, PB. Which parties got this almost 25%+ vote in 2019 and now being decimated to half of it - with most of the defection going to CONG+ jokers ?

[vijayk]

Has Axis defined what/who constitutes the 'Others' ? E.g. in MH, there is almost nothing in the Others category - similarly in most other states - except OR, PB. Which parties got this almost 25%+ vote in 2019 and now being decimated to half of it - with most of the defection going to CONG+ jokers ?

BRS/TRS, Akalis, YSRCP, BJD

[KL Dubey]

Has Axis defined what/who constitutes the 'Others' ? E.g. in MH, there is almost nothing in the Others category - similarly in most other states - except OR, PB. Which parties got this almost 25%+ vote in 2019 and now being decimated to half of it - with most of the defection going to CONG+ jokers ?

You answered your own question above. And a look at the 2019 and 2024 LS pages on Wiki would have given the exact parties.

MH indeed does not have much of "Others", but nationally there are a lot of parties which were "Others" in 2019 but moved into INDI or NDA this time. Most notably SP, TMC, TDP, and the commies.

[vijayk]

Flt Lt Anoop Verma (Retd.) @FltLtAnoopVerma

Total No of Votes polled for CONgress in Sikkim are 1228

Yes just 1228 in Full State Assembly Elections

Even NOTA got 3 times then them

And they are claiming 295 Lok Sabha Seats in Bharat

[Abhijit]

Has Axis defined what/who constitutes the 'Others' ? E.g. in MH, there is almost nothing in the Others category - similarly in most other states - except OR, PB. Which parties got this almost 25%+ vote in 2019 and now being decimated to half of it - with most of the defection going to CONG+ jokers ?

BRS/TRS, Akalis, YSRCP, BJD

There is no way that these 4 jokers amounted to 30% vote share on a national level - the Axis or the india today is mixing state level % with national levels, methinks. it is just a psy-ops to make people think that most consolidation of non-bjp, non-congi riff-raff is tending towards congi system. Either they are doing a deliberate mis-reporting of aggregates or they are incapable of using excel.

[hanumadu]

Wasn't it the axis guy who said the muslim percentage voting for BJP would surprise this time? Praveen Patil told the same.

[KL Dubey]

There is no way that these 4 jokers amounted to 30% vote share on a national level - the Axis or the india today is mixing state level % with national levels, methinks. it is just a psy-ops to make people think that most consolidation of non-bjp, non-congi riff-raff is tending towards congi system. Either they are doing a deliberate mis-reporting of aggregates or they are incapable of using excel.

Arre bhai, thoda bahut dimaag lagaao....I am still smiling that some posters (a few very prolific ones too) do not understand basic election arithmetic.

Look the graph below again (opinion polls tracking vote share).

Starting about Nov 2022, the INDI vote share starts to go up "hugely" and Others go down. Mirror-image graphs. The NDA vote share is not affected much, but does go also up somewhat due to (re)joining of a few others like JDU, RLD etc. Overall, the INDI and NDA alliances are firming up and many parties moved out from the "Others" category. This is just redistribution of votes.

The actual interesting part is after Jan 2024, where the NDA voteshare starts going up sharply and *both* the INDI and Others are going down, i.e. Modi is pulling away votes from both of them as the campaign got heated.

[chetak]

-Jairam Ramesh alleged that HM Shah called 150 DMs to manipulate results
-ECI issued a notice saying disclose the names of those DMs
-Jairam Ramesh asked one week to respond
-ECI says not a week, we want an answer by 7 pm today itself

ECI is in full Beltey Beltey mood

[g.sarkar]

Just Google India Elections 2024 News and see the bias of Western Press. Along with the news of Modiji's victory, there are snide remarks about the loss of India's democracy and the anti Muslim stance of BJP. Unfortunately, for them, there is nothing that they can do at this time. So, they are calling him avowed Right wing, Hindu nationalist, and divisive.
Gautam

[KL Dubey]

-Jairam Ramesh alleged that HM Shah called 150 DMs to manipulate results
-ECI issued a notice saying disclose the names of those DMs

To add insult to the a$$-kicking, the responding official's name is Narendra.

[Amber G.]

counting trends and results, based on data entered by the Returning Officers/ Assistant Returning Officers (RO/ ARO) across all seats, will be accessible on the official website of the Election Commission at https://results.eci.gov.in/.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Amber G.]

The counting of votes has kicked off with postal ballots...

Early .. NDA is talking a lead..(Congress wanted to count postal ballots first..)

[Pratyush]

From early indications. It's looking like a landslide victory for NDA.

[Amber G.]

[Pratyush]

BJP is approaching over 60% percent seats in the parliament at minimum.

[chaitanya]

Pratyush-ji where are you seeing this?

[Atmavik]

EVM counting has started. Crunch time

[Pratyush]

First post website.

[williams]

All these are postal ballots. No big news. And NDA is leading - Pappu's hope is a washout