2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[Arima]

UP BJP has a vote share of 42.64 % if the trend continues the numbers should get better

what about other side? dot alliance?

[Vayutuvan]

UP is turning out to be a bust.

and maratha maanush - they left Phadnavis. So two three potential future PM candidates from BJP have gone phut. Fadnavis ji, Yogi ji, and Annamalai gaaru.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[AkshaySG]

Getting that India vs Aus WC final feeling in the pit of the stomach
Months of hope turning into a day of horror

Hopefully this time we can scrape through and live to fight another day.

[SRajesh]

Is it like the MP and Rajasthan results where early trends were completely reversed by late afternoon??
By 2/2.30 exact numbers can be predicted.
Want to wipe the glee of Turd's face!!

[Dasari]

Now I see why BJP partnered with TDP in AP. At the end this alliance is what probably saves NDA. That is unbelievable. The low turn out in UP and Rajasthan crushed BJP. Don’t know what the Hindu voters didn’t like. They simply didn’t go for voting.

[bala]

Looks like the alliance partners will ask for their pound of flesh in mantriji posts

[Vayutuvan]

A repeat of 2004?

May not be that bad. NDA will still form the govt. Let us hope BJP gets 272+. That is good enough till 2029.

[AshishA]

The trends have settled I think.

[vimal]

I’m sure BJP knew that they are going to be facing losses in north but they were hoping for some relief in south. It all went kaput!

[Vayutuvan]

Is it like the MP and Rajasthan results where early trends were completely reversed by late afternoon??
By 2/2.30 exact numbers can be predicted.
Want to wipe the glee of Turd's face!!

Turdeshay?

[Cain Marko]

UP will have to be looked at very closely.

Is it some issue ?

Or just plain laziness of the voter ?

Or wrong candidate selection ?

My simple guess is that three things played out:
1. Fear of hyper powerful BJP changing the constitution galvanized the caste vote +Muslim vote.
2. Trauma caused by COVID-19 esp. With returning labor class.
3. Hubris doesn't work esp. when it comes to religious matters.

[AkshaySG]

Now I see why BJP partnered with TDP in AP. At the end this alliance is what probably saves NDA. That is unbelievable. The low turn out in UP and Rajasthan crushed BJP. Don’t know what the Hindu voters didn’t like. They simply didn’t go for voting.

Because Hindu voters don't vote in a bloc for themselves.. Its caste first then freebies then religion.. Combine that with super high summer temps in RJ/UP/GJ/MH and it seems quite a lot stayed home

That isn't the only factor obviously, Seat selection in RJ has been poor and MH turned into a complex soup. I am more surprised by UP and GJ which were thought to be clean sweeps

[Vayutuvan]

Andhra has Chandrababu Naidu in a sweep.

He is going to act up like anything. He needs to be kept under the heel.

[Vayutuvan]

The fight between the heavyweights Shashi Tharoor and Rajeev Chandrasekhar is heating up as votes for the constituency are counted. Both the candidates kept switching the lead between them with small margins during the initial hours of counting.

Irrelevant.

[Sachin]

As per NDTV; NDA 290, INDI 225. So NDA (the alliance) has now crossed the 272 mark. May be it would be a compromise government !?

[Vayutuvan]

Only 272 are needed for majority.

NDA will make it. But I would be happier if BJP gets 272+. Rest is malai.

[SRajesh]

Is it like the MP and Rajasthan results where early trends were completely reversed by late afternoon??
By 2/2.30 exact numbers can be predicted.
Want to wipe the glee of Turd's face!!

Turdeshay?

Yes

[Aditya_V]

Now I see why BJP partnered with TDP in AP. At the end this alliance is what probably saves NDA. That is unbelievable. The low turn out in UP and Rajasthan crushed BJP. Don’t know what the Hindu voters didn’t like. They simply didn’t go for voting.

when you predict you will anyway win results 15-20% of the voters sit at home, like in 2004

[Sumeet]

UP will have to be looked at very closely.

Is it some issue ?

Or just plain laziness of the voter ?

Or wrong candidate selection ?

My simple guess is that three things played out:
1. Fear of hyper powerful BJP changing the constitution galvanized the caste vote +Muslim vote.
2. Trauma caused by COVID-19 esp. With returning labor class.
3. Hubris doesn't work esp. when it comes to religious matters.

Well in hindsight breaking Shiv Sena and NCP was a bad idea. Better would have been to given rotational leadership to UT and keep Maharashtra safe.

If UP and Maharastra would have delivered like they did in 2014, 2019 BJP would have been touching 290 by itself.

Also, I have said it previously that 400 paar nara was not right. PM should have stuck to what he did in 2019. It's sufficient to do reforms.

[Primus]

What I am wondering about is how did everybody - all the 'experts', psephologists (BB of 5Forty3 for example) get it so wrong? Truly a Black Swan if NDA loses. I can't even begin to imagine what Pappu as PM would be like!

[Vayutuvan]

As per NDTV; NDA 290, INDI 225. So NDA (the alliance) has now crossed the 272 mark. May be it would be a compromise government !?

Compromise with whom? CBN might ask for PM post or atleast deputy PM or Home minister. But then, as a CM of AP he would make more. He needs to be watched carefully after NDA forms the govt.

[Vayutuvan]

What I am wondering about is how did everybody - all the 'experts', psephologists (BB of 5Forty3 for example) get it so wrong? Truly a Black Swan if NDA loses. I can't even begin to imagine what Pappu as PM would be like!

Added to that, what would they do to Modi ji, AS ji, Yogi ji, Irani ji, ...

[SandeepA]

Problem is there are no reliable partners, only BJD was reliable but now nurse a lifelong feud. Nitishwa and Naidugaru can flip thrice before the day is done!
3 Lessons -
1. Get the Hindu to go out and bloody vote
2. Get the Hindu to go out and bloody vote
3. Get the Hindu to go out and bloody vote

[vimal]

I had posted a month ago how my extended family was divided between BJP/Congress unlike last time BJP only and it seem to be coming true.

This also proves that Hindus don’t care about Mandir or Kashmiri Hindus post 370. There has never been or never will be a Hindu consciousness it’s just small time Satraps divided and feuding.

[Aditya_V]

What I am wondering about is how did everybody - all the 'experts', psephologists (BB of 5Forty3 for example) get it so wrong? Truly a Black Swan if NDA loses. I can't even begin to imagine what Pappu as PM would be like!

I have been seeing for 25 years, it is always Guesswork.

It also shows, article 370, building Ram temple are worthless- only 35% care for these issues, enough people vote on an imaginary rs 1 Lakh. Minorities are much more well organized and strategic.

[OmkarC]

As Dasari mentioned above, the value of TDP alliance is becoming apparent - probably that's what will save BJP.

CBN will have his pound of flesh. But that's a price we need to pay for the lethargy of Hindu voters elsewhere.

Perhaps a silver lining is Telangana, very happy w/ the showing so far: winning all sitting seats w/ nice leads after5-6 rounds + 4 new ones.

[Vayutuvan]

Yes

That man has a very punchable face.

[Cyrano]

Keep the faith in NaMo and dharma bhailog.

Let's not conflate Dharma with modi.

NaMo is the best bet we have currently to protect dharma in the (geo)political sphere. What is there to conflate or confuse?

[SRajesh]

Just scraping through with CBN is a dangerous proposition.
Two years down the line he might jump ship or even earlier depends on the final numbers though.
BJP 272 on its own will be a great but for that the trends in UP should reverse.
But looking at the leads of SP not sure if they will repeat the clean sweep maybe 40-42 max and ditto in MH
That's a hit of 40+ seats for BJP alone (down from 303)

[bala]

According to ECI only 1 seat is left : announced 542/543 BJP 239

[Cain Marko]

My simple guess is that three things played out:
1. Fear of hyper powerful BJP changing the constitution galvanized the caste vote +Muslim vote.
2. Trauma caused by COVID-19 esp. With returning labor class.
3. Hubris doesn't work esp. when it comes to religious matters.

Well in hindsight breaking Shiv Sena and NCP was a bad idea. Better would have been to given rotational leadership to UT and keep Maharashtra safe.

If UP and Maharastra would have delivered like they did in 2014, 2019 BJP would have been touching 290 by itself.

Also, I have said it previously that 400 paar nara was not right. PM should have stuck to what he did in 2019. It's sufficient to do reforms.

I was thinking purely of the up debacle. But yeah, totally agreed on the Maharashtra gimmicks. Should've kept SS intact.

[Vayutuvan]

That's a hit of 40+ seats for BJP alone (down from 303)

If that is the final count, BJP falls short by a mere dozen seats. So close yet so far.

[Mort Walker]

CBN is troublesome as he was the one jumping on the PM in 2019 to prove the Balakot air strikes. He's flip-flopped when convenient.

[Vayutuvan]

CBN was against Modi ji, CM of Gujarat, as well.

[Sumeet]

Also, what happened in Rajasthan in 6 months period ?

[AkshaySG]

Another election another disappointment in WB
Exit Polls predicting BJP in mid 20s and TMC in early teens and exactly opposite has happened

[SRajesh]

My nightmares are back!!
Imagine a tight finish
268 NDA
249 INDI
It will be a repeat India Shining and all that achieved in 10yrs will be washed away in a jiffy
Bombs will start going off and Salami slicing will start

[Vayutuvan]

Also, what happened in Rajasthan in 6 months period ?

Raj was always iffy. But Bihar balanced that out. UP and MH. That is what BJP missed. Unfortunately, Annamalai gaaru should have won. I am giving up on TN for the next 15 years.

[Mort Walker]

Another election another disappointment in WB
Exit Polls predicting BJP in mid 20s and TMC in early teens and exactly opposite has happened

The center should have dismissed TMC last year. Now it looks impossible.