2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[kvraghav]

Looking at the sunny states numbers, they should have called elections in January, plus freebies. The common talk in karnataka is schemes like PLI only helps MSME owners make good money . So cancel PLI and move the money for freebies.

[Kati]

As per ECI, Tharoor is leading only by 925 votes.

[Cain Marko]

Arun Pudur
@arunpudur
Over 150 Seats BJP is behind by less than 5,000 votes.

Only 35% of votes have been counted, still 65% left.

Bull shit. Must be less than 30. But there would be an equal number of seats that BJP would be ahead by a slender margin. They will even out eventually.

Yeah most channels are saying we are very close to finish. 2pm. Having said that, almost 50 seats are close... Less than 5k margin.

[sajo]

Paging Dilbu Ji. Please salvage the situation Dilbuji.

[Sumeet]

BJP didn't get majority because Dilbu ji has not been active (like before)

[nits]

and here it begins - India Today running news from "sources" that SP in touch with CBN and NKY

[vijayk]

Another mistake of BJP - not removing illegal BD And Roghniyas ... now it's impossible

[kvraghav]

All is also not lost. BJP just needs NK or Naidu to stick on. Heck make one of them Prime Minister if needed but just survive these 5 years and freebies is the way to go. I am sure the overwhelming women votes are due to the 8500 rs per month.

[Pratyush]

BJP+ has gained 2 additional states is something that most posters are missing.

Andhra and Odissa.

[putnanja]

BJP also could have been a bit liberal in the previous or current year's budget. There were literally no direct tax benefits for anyone or any sort of incentives to common folk. I think they were a bit overconfident of victory and didn't think anything else was required

[vijayk]

All is also not lost. BJP just needs NK or Naidu to stick on. Heck make one of them Prime Minister if needed but just survive these 5 years and freebies is the way to go. I am sure the overwhelming women votes are due to the 8500 rs per month.

8500 was a worry.
Pappu will double down on it

[AshishA]

BJP+ has gained 2 additional states is something that most posters are missing.

Andhra and Odissa.

TDP is a paltu party. It can very well turn the other way in future. But if Odisha votes the way it did, it's going to vote multiple terms for BJP.

[Arima]

UP and AP allow Vote Bank to be blackmailers. Those states are artificial and could be broken into smaller states. Then their games won't work anymore.

who is going to do it and when? any province with population greater than 50-60 million should be broken for better admin. RSS vision has same plan, but who is really going to do it. it would be political disaster for the party.

[Arima]

and here it begins - India Today running news from "sources" that SP in touch with CBN and NKY

Imagine kind of kichidi sarkar dot alliance will make if Paltu rajas both jump ship.
scary for economy, military and strategic implications on border.

[Cyrano]

Most of us are not on the ground. The psephologists are, to varying degrees.
That nearly all of them got it wrong is very puzzling. There is more to it than is visible right now.

It aint over until its over.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Sumeet]

If INC gang can recover from the level it had fallen to then for sure BJP/NDA could recover as well to get up to majority mark. BJP has to play the long game and build post Modi bharat (anyways this would have been his last term).

Invite Naidu and NK over for detail talk. BJP should form govt at any cost for continuation of foreign policy, strategic autonomy, internal and border security, economic and infrastructure growth to name a few.

There should be two immediate targets:

1) Maintain govt in center for 5 years
2) Recapture Haryana
3) Recapture UP in 2027

[Arima]

Most of us are not on the ground. The psephologists are, to varying degrees.
That nearly all of them got it wrong is very puzzling. There is more to it than is visible right now.

It aint over until its over.

for me buck stops at Nadda. he is responsible for candidates, poll machinery, spending money to pull rank and file of BJP to work on ground.

[hanumadu]

Eminent Intellectual
@total_woke_
Half of SP leads are Upper Caste. That was the strategy. Akhilesh knew MY will vote for upper caste SP candidate but Hindus will vote for their caste

[Arima]

If INC gang can recover from the level it had fallen to then for sure BJP/NDA could recover as well to get up to majority mark. BJP has to play the long game and build post Modi bharat (anyways this would have been his last term).

Invite Naidu and NK over for detail talk. BJP should form govt at any cost for continuation of foreign policy, strategic autonomy, internal and border security, economic and infrastructure growth to name a few.

they were hooting lot about hereditary tax, OBC, caste census. scary to even think.
90s Mandal ruined political stability for 25 years.

[kvraghav]

Eminent Intellectual
@total_woke_
Half of SP leads are Upper Caste. That was the strategy. Akhilesh knew MY will vote for upper caste SP candidate but Hindus will vote for their caste

Does this mean in these places, BJP gave the seats to Yadav?

[Shaktimaan]

This can tie into Modiji's own rule of retirement at 75 years with entry into the Margdarshak Mandal.

Modiji is about 73 right now. He can rule for 2.5 more years, when he will hit 75 and the rest of the term can be a bargaining chip...

[sanjayc]

Most of us are not on the ground. The psephologists are, to varying degrees.
That nearly all of them got it wrong is very puzzling. There is more to it than is visible right now.

It aint over until its over.

Only two causes can be there:

EVMs being smartly gamed by whites (in a way not to arouse the needle of suspicion).

If not, then the other reason would be the traditional treachery of Hindus to leaders representing their interests. (Hindus are fickle and usually flee the ground, leaving the leader alone and defenceless, much like they ditched Modi now)

[Pratyush]

Who are the potential parties in the INDI alliance. That can be induced to break away from the formation

[Cyrano]

Leads < 5000 : From DD news live:
UP: 72
MH: 44

[kvraghav]

I would also put this on the heat. We have to have elections in January. this time, the heat was too much. There is one hope though in this. Karnataka will vote for BJP next. As we can see, the BJP primary seat wins were in south Karnataka, which means JDS consolidation has helped.

[Pratyush]

Guys enough of the CT around the EVM.

BJP wins they're kosher. BJP fights poorly, EVM are suspect. Politics is a 24x7x365 occupation. Sometimes you get it wrong as well.

The true politition is one who is able to salvage a win from adverse situations. This is the real test of the BJP leadership. Let's see if, they're capable. If not we need to find new leadership.

[sanman]

Real message is that Vote Bank clings to Corrupt Parties - so Vote Bank are fundamental enablers of corruption, which they see as essential to their survival

[sanman]

who is going to do it and when? any province with population greater than 50-60 million should be broken for better admin. RSS vision has same plan, but who is really going to do it. it would be political disaster for the party.

Do it along with census. Just re-form states based on census.

[AshishA]

Freebies, reservations, all kinds of doles just before election is what matters. The pattern was visible right before our eyes in MP, Karnataka and other states

[Sumeet]

ToI reporting PM Modi dials CM Naidu to congratulate him on victory in AP. I am sure there will be more things to talk to him about.

[Kati]

This may be a blip on the radar, but the Naxals are all set to enter the parliament for the first time in their own. This should have been checkmated early.
They are comfortably leading in two Bihar seats. I’m talking about CPI-ML (Liberatiin).

[Sachin]

EVMs being smartly gamed by whites (in a way not to arouse the needle of suspicion).

From my limited understanding of how EVMs work. And here is an FAQ on EVMs.
1. They are stand alone devices, with the actual counting logic stored in an E-PROM.
2. Each EVM can hold only 2000 votes. After which another unit has to be used.
3. The names of the candidates are placed based on the first English letter of their names and in ascending order (candidate with name starting with A will come on top).
4. Corrolarry to point #3, so we cannot have a logic like Congress will always be number #2, and if any button is pressed transfer to the candidate in #2.
5. Programming of the symbols (for VVPAT display) and the candidate details in EVM is done by a specific machine for the same. They have also now been locked up (in case it needs to be verified).
6. EVMs are stored at a government safe house with guards from state police and central police if required. Election is conducted predominantly by state officials (so if EVMs can be tampered, UP Govt could have used their employees for the same - but that has not happened).
7. Each major operation on the EVM (mock poll, starting of polling and closing of polling) is recorded in relevant forms (like the famous Form 17-C) which is signed by the candidates named representatives.
8. The polled EVMs go to the strong rooms again with guard being mounted by state police and CPFs.

To do a post mortem of the results, what politicians would do is to analyse the voting pattern in every EVM. Then consolidate the data from EVMs which was sent to a specific area (like a ward, or a taluk). Determine the overall trend. Losses with a close margin can happen when one Panchayath, or 2-3 big polling booths voted en-masse against the candidate. I am sure BJP would also this analysis and figure out where they goofed up.

[Arima]

who is going to do it and when? any province with population greater than 50-60 million should be broken for better admin. RSS vision has same plan, but who is really going to do it. it would be political disaster for the party.

Do it along with census. Just re-form states based on census.

now with coalition govt, it would be very difficult to conduct census without caste.
catch22!!

[kvraghav]

CBN will be consolidating in AP and will not leave it. He is good as gone if he shifts to Delhi. I suspect Nitish is moving upwards with early elections. He may even try to get the PM for at least a year. Shinde sena and NCP should merge. Keeping them outside is dangerous.

[Cyrano]

Thank you Sachin garu for bringing some sanity into this thread

[Sachin]

BJP+ has gained 2 additional states is something that most posters are missing.

And one Lok Sabha seat in Kerala (Suresh Gopi from Thrissur).

[S_Madhukar]

If they don't get to 272 then Modi as PM in under danger even in Varanasi he is only leading by 1L votes... looks like his zero tolerance to corruption did not make friends in his own party.

[hanumadu]

Most of us are not on the ground. The psephologists are, to varying degrees.
That nearly all of them got it wrong is very puzzling. There is more to it than is visible right now.

It aint over until its over.

Only two causes can be there:

EVMs being smartly gamed by whites (in a way not to arouse the needle of suspicion).

If not, then the other reason would be the traditional treachery of Hindus to leaders representing their interests. (Hindus are fickle and usually flee the ground, leaving the leader alone and defenceless, much like they ditched Modi now)

Dude, stop this EVM bullshit. EC made an open challenge to prove EVMs can be tampered and no one was able to do it so far. Don't be a congressi here.

[Deans]

EVMs being smartly gamed by whites (in a way not to arouse the needle of suspicion).

From my limited understanding of how EVMs work. And here is an FAQ on EVMs.
1. They are stand alone devices, with the actual counting logic stored in an E-PROM.
2. Each EVM can hold only 2000 votes. After which another unit has to be used.
3. The names of the candidates are placed based on the first English letter of their names and in ascending order (candidate with name starting with A will come on top).
4. Corrolarry to point #3, so we cannot have a logic like Congress will always be number #2, and if any button is pressed transfer to the candidate in #2.
5. Programming of the symbols (for VVPAT display) and the candidate details in EVM is done by a specific machine for the same. They have also now been locked up (in case it needs to be verified).
6. EVMs are stored at a government safe house with guards from state police and central police if required. Election is conducted predominantly by state officials (so if EVMs can be tampered, UP Govt could have used their employees for the same - but that has not happened).
7. Each major operation on the EVM (mock poll, starting of polling and closing of polling) is recorded in relevant forms (like the famous Form 17-C) which is signed by the candidates named representatives.
8. The polled EVMs go to the strong rooms again with guard being mounted by state police and CPFs.

There are several other checks and controls.
- No one has been able to hack an EVM (EC conducts challenges), because, as you say, it is a closed system.
- EVM's are distributed at random before polling and at the time of counting. (so you don't know which village voted for whom).
- There is a test run after the candidates in each constituency are decided. After each party's rep satisfies himself, the EVM is sealed.
- Before the poll the seal is broken in the presence of the booth returning officer and party representatives. They do a test again, to verify
that if you press A, the vote goes to A.
- 10% paper verification, which is a statistically sound control sample.
- Polling agents of each major party verify the identity of the candidate from their paper rolls and can challenge impersonators.
- The total of those who voted (paper form of party representatives) is cross checked with the EVM total.