2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[vimal]

What BJP is staring at is the demographic destiny of India. Ghazwa-e-Hind is complete

[vijayk]

SUDHIR @seriousfunnyguy
A village where BJP did not get even a single vote. 532 houses have been given in this village under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.

There are 100% Muslim Voters in the village.

[NRao]

Victoria Nuland's ghost and Eric Garcetti landed a good punch without swinging.

[AkshaySG]

What BJP is staring at is the demographic destiny of India. Ghazwa-e-Hind is complete

Easy to blame Ghazwa E Hind without looking at ourselves first, Ayodhya (Faizpur) is 82% Hindu and just received the biggest ask of Hindus for the last 500 years along with rapid development

BJP lost to SP by a handsome margin. The same SP who had kar sevaks murdered in the street.

Similarly a lot of UP, RJ losses are due to upper cast unhappiness and vote transferring instead of pure M consolidation

[Deans]

2014 : 282 seats with 31% vote share
2019 : 303 seats with 37% vote share
2024 : ~245 seats with 37.5% vote share

It comes down to conversion rate, BJP has usually been exceptional at it but has horribly underperformed here, Almost all tight races going to SP/TMC and in some cases even to INC

I had done a similar analysis which I think I posted earlier. There are 233 seats that the BJP won by a large margin in terms of both % votes and
absolute numbers. I expect they have retained those 233 and some upsets in Odisha and Telengana.

[SRajesh]

Deansji
We are not talking about the Elephant in the room
Where is RSS??
The karyakartas have been sidelined
Nagpur has had enough of both NaMo and AS
They feel they have been shortshifted even though pappu and others kept blaming them for all the ills.
Is this their way of saying thank you to MAD combo!!
If Gadkari is made Deputy PM I will be pretty sure that backroom boys have reached an understanding after 'Kiss and making it up'

[AkshaySG]

...

Was laughing while reading this and watching the exit polls come in.

Now it reads like the most accurate prediction of election results beating every psephologist/journlist/politician/astrologer

[Ambar]

it cannot just be internal politics that PM Modi margin is reduced by 3 lak votes.
Ayodhya lost
Ameti and many more

All of those seats are in UP. It's not a coincidence is it? My Dad supports Congress and he had said Amethi, Ayodhya and many seats will be lost. He got his information from the usual darbari youtube channels. I used to dismiss them as shit family darbaris say. But looks like it was indeed correct. He did say BJP is going to get 240 seats and congress is going to get 100. And both were extremely accurately even more than pollsters.

For last some months he definitely used to say Yogi camp and Modi camp have been in a intense struggle and this might just have been the sabotage that might have resulted in loss of 30 seats in UP. Moreover, opposition cleverly ensured the talk spread that if Modi comes to power again, Yogi is going to go. And people of UP chose Yogi over Modi.

Ironically, the only psephologist who got it right is Yogendra Yadav! Everyone, including five-star celebrity psephologists, got it wrong.

I was in Karnataka after the second phase, and the general consensus among karyakartas was that there were at least 16 seats in the state that were toss-ups. They were also expecting losses in Rajasthan and Maharashtra but were confident that UP, WB, Odisha, and Telangana/AP would make up for it. While the party performed better than expected in Karnataka, it faced decimation in states that were supposed to be BJP’s strongholds.

There were signs that everyone ignored. After the first phase, Modi was unusually abrasive in his speeches. He did an unprecedented 80+ interviews in a month, hoping to clear doubts. BJP probably had a good idea that they would fall short of 300 seats but were hopeful of a simple majority. Seasoned politicians like Amit Shah wouldn’t have missed a huge anti-incumbency wave in places like Amethi.

Exploring the reasons why the party failed to gather support despite a good economy, a record stock market, and visible Hindutva:

1.Youth: The anti-establishment youth played a crucial role in sinking UPA in 2014. Modi understood their mood back then and even compared the 2014 elections to 12th-grade exams in his speeches. However, the same youth today are rabidly anti-BJP for various reasons.

2.Digital Influence: Modi ushered in the digitization of India through cheap high-speed internet. However, INC effectively used the same cheap internet to reach out to voters through social media, promoting their welfare schemes and anti-BJP propaganda.

3.Incompetent BJP Leaders: Throughout the Modi era, MPs and MLAs of the party believed they could win by riding on Modi’s coattails. They became corrupt, arrogant, and unreachable to their constituents.

4.Outsiders: One in five tickets was given to outsiders. This decision raised questions, and the perception grew that BJP was a “washing machine” for corrupt, washed-out politicians.

5.Messaging: BJP was often playing catch-up. While INC used its well-oiled social media machinery to turn different communities against the party, BJP struggled with its messaging.

6.Agniveer: Although well-meaning, Agniveer overlooked the fact that military service is considered a “sarkaari naukri” (government job) in our country, especially in rural parts of Haryana, Rajasthan, and Western UP.

7.Arrogance: Both Modi and Nirmala Sitharaman displayed overconfidence. Their dull budget, lacking provisions for the working class, reflected this arrogance. The contraction of our CAD in an election year shows their misjudgment.

8.“400 par” Slogan: In the history of Indian politics, “ab ki baar 400 par” will be remembered as the most clownish, suicidal campaign slogan. It energized BJP’s enemies and led to complacency among cadres and voters.

9.ECI: Holding seven-week-long elections in mid-summer, with voting days mostly on Fridays and Mondays, resulted in lower-than-expected turnout.

10. Freebies: You couldn't watch TV for 10 minutes without INC advertising some freebie on TV. While BJP's ads were far and few and mostly spoke about national security etc. Congress' ads were about monetary benefits, crop MSP, GST-free agro produce etc

As we move forward, it’s the end of an era with no clear BJP leader in sight after Modi. If UPA forms the government, BJP-run states will face grave constraints. Modi is a once-in-a-generation politician with pan-India appeal, this is precisely the reason why he became a target for the left ecosystem globally. While he had flaws, his contributions to the nation over ten years surpass those of any other Indian politician in history. His absence will be deeply felt, and finding a replacement with someone of his calibre seems unlikely in our lifetime.

[sajo]

Gadkari could be tasked with Uniting the Senas. Ajit Pawar's NCP is anyway not of much help with just 1 seat. They can float away if they do not see value in this alliance.
There are 7 independents leading/won at the moment, out of which 1 from Kashmir (and currently in Jail) and 1 from Punjab can be discarded. Hope they are "made to see the light" and start off by supporting the NDA.

[vijayk]

https://youtu.be/tt1oWbm5jng?si=BYEfN50I7PF-y7qo

I think Reservation cancellation fear has spread among SC/ST that deserted BJP also. see the news

[Ambar]

Gadkari could be tasked with Uniting the Senas. Ajit Pawar's NCP is anyway not of much help with just 1 seat. They can float away if they do not see value in this alliance.
There are 7 independents leading/won at the moment, out of which 1 from Kashmir (and currently in Jail) and 1 from Punjab can be discarded. Hope they are "made to see the light" and start off by supporting the NDA.

If you have to take support from literal terrorists in prison to form the government, then you are better off licking your wounds and sitting in the opposition! People have decided yet again that caste,freebie and "feelings of hurt pride" are more important than national security, economy, robust foreign policy. No point in stopping the inevitable.

One a side note, i am glad my payment to 5forty3 did not go through, it would have been an utter waste of money.

[sajo]

Gadkari could be tasked with Uniting the Senas. Ajit Pawar's NCP is anyway not of much help with just 1 seat. They can float away if they do not see value in this alliance.
There are 7 independents leading/won at the moment, out of which 1 from Kashmir (and currently in Jail) and 1 from Punjab can be discarded. Hope they are "made to see the light" and start off by supporting the NDA.

If you have to take support from literal terrorists in prison to form the government, then you are better off licking your wounds and sitting in the opposition! People have decided yet again that caste,freebie and "feelings of hurt pride" are more important than national security, economy, robust foreign policy. No point in stopping the inevitable.

One a side note, i am glad my payment to 5forty3 did not go through, it would have been an utter waste of money.

I was implying that the 5 others (other than those who are in Jail) should be evaluated for potential support.

[chanakyaa]

Ironically, the only psephologist who got it right is Yogendra Yadav! Everyone, including five-star celebrity psephologists, got it wrong.
….

On a positive note, looks like EVMs are fine, no one is complaining

[syam]

If Modiji won same 240 seats in 2014, none would've said BJP performed bad.

270+ governments were Modi+Shah creation. Even Congis at the peak of UPA era, got around 204 seats. We are over-bashing BJP too much here. Most Indian voters are not that much into strategic benefits, GDP and stuff. They care about simple things.

[Deans]

Elusive M vote bank is the reason. We are always fighting for 70% of votes, while the congi+ fully enjoys the 30% votes.

They just need to fool another 10% to safely win any seat. It's that easy. And BJP knew about it too. But this time, they ignored it for some reason. The mastermind behind this congi+ resurgence outsmarted them this time.

If you observe the pattern so far, they let BJP enjoy huge margins in their strong holds and chipped away those 5s and 10s from tough areas. Its cumulative effect changed the whole game.

Its not 30% much as we would like to think so.
The % of Muslims voting is marginally higher, if their share of population is 14.1% not more than 15% of voters would be Muslim.
I had pointed out after the Karnataka assembly elections that BJP lost because they got a lower share of Hindu votes than Cong.

Their biggest loss in vote share was Maharashtra (Muslim vote not a big factor) in the Onion belt. Just maybe Govt onion export policy
flip flops had something to do with it ?
In UP, Muslim voters were already consolidated against BJP since 2014. The BJP has lost 9% vote share (50 to 41%).
It means 1 of every 5 Hindus who voted for the BJP in 2019, did not this time. It's not as if BJP suddenly got their caste arithmetic or
candidate selection wrong. Was Agniveer an issue among Rajputs ? I don't know. My point is its simplistic to say Muslim consolidation.

[Sachin]

Aravind @aravind
I think numbers coming from the ECI are a bit staggered, slow, and selective.

I think @aravind is mistaken. There is an official process which ECI follows to report leads and even the final tally. ECI reports onlt after all the checks and double checks are done, and the paper work to that effect is complete. So what they report usually does NOT change. The media houses are just seeing the unofficial counting and tallys and then making a report. So the media house reported numbers can change. It would be late in the night that the official ECI tallies would be out. And they will have the paper work ready to deal with any cases etc.

I am not expecting any wonders now. It will be good if BJP reaches 250 by itself. But cooaltion government it will be.

Where is RSS??
The karyakartas have been sidelined

In KA state elections the whine was that some RSS leaders decided on the candidate list, and most of them got trounced. Now looks like at Lok Sabha level, the reverse was the case (RSS sidelined). How ever, the opinion from J.P Nadda that BJP can stand alone and fight, may be been taken as a egoistic stance.

[SRajesh]

Couple of things that BJP could have done (and correct me if I am wrong)
1. Let loose SuSu with the foriegn passport case( agreed he is old and grumpy and feels entitled but one could have taken him along, he has turned totally anti Modi now)
2. What stopped them from exposing the CCP MOU!!
3. Oft repeated Ghar mein Ghus ke marenge should have stopped

[sajo]

But cooaltion government it will be.

Yes, but whose, is a big worry right now. Whether it would be an NDA coalition, however shaky it might be, or whether it would be the INDI folks who get a stab at running things with "outside" support is something we are not sure of yet. Hence the jitters. I agree that in 2014 these were definitely lungi dance numbers.

[Deans]

If Modiji won same 240 seats in 2014, none would've said BJP performed bad.

270+ governments were Modi+Shah creation. Even Congis at the peak of UPA era, got around 204 seats. We are over-bashing BJP too much here. Most Indian voters are not that much into strategic benefits, GDP and stuff. They care about simple things.

Yes, but that's the point. Why talk of 400+ seats, which was almost impossible.
Why not say we've had to face huge challenges dealing with Covid and now a global recession and uncertainty. We hope the voters will continue
to have faith in us and give us a simple majority.
It is human nature to bash someone to sets an outsize goal at the expense of someone else and then fails.

If INDIA had been formed after the WB elections and got its act together (kept in Mamta and Nitish) INDIA would have won this election.
That WB election, or Karnataka after that should have alerted the BJP to the challenge of 2024 and got them to focus on how they were
performing in each seat.

[Deans]

Deansji
We are not talking about the Elephant in the room
Where is RSS??
The karyakartas have been sidelined
Nagpur has had enough of both NaMo and AS
They feel they have been shortshifted even though pappu and others kept blaming them for all the ills.
Is this their way of saying thank you to MAD combo!!
If Gadkari is made Deputy PM I will be pretty sure that backroom boys have reached an understanding after 'Kiss and making it up'

Yes Rajeshji, It is indeed the elephant in the room and in an earlier post I have hinted at arrogance (with Allies and Opposition).
I hate to say it, I think power has affected MoSha. There was a feeling that Modiji is enough to win the election. No opposing point of view
is entertained.

[vimal]

Well at least Modiji got 0.01% of Pasmanda vote forming a new government. That’s something

[ramana]

Once Modiji is sworn in as PM things will fall onto place.
It will be for full term.

[vijayk]

I saw PVRN garu's Feb message that this will be a close election. I chose to ignore it.


https://x.com/homam108/status/1797921281284727088

PVR Narasimha Rao @homam108
Though I got it more right than most astrologers, psephologists & analysts, I did wrongly soften my "close election" and "tough for BJP" call in the last few weeks..

But I did say that it would be a tough election for BJP, that June 4 wasn't a good day for BJP, and that it was Rahul's best chance ever (though he would still fall short).

I did get the overall large strokes right and can reconcile the specifics where I got wrong.

I cannot reconcile one thing yet though. This should be a pretty good day for Yogi. But BJP failed in UP!

This makes me wonder if there is truth to the rumors of a power struggle between Modi-Shah and Yogi in controlling UP BJP and the complete sidelining of Yogi in UP candidate selection. If so, this can be a win for Yogi in intra-party politics, with serious implications on the future!

This narrow win also makes my prediction of Modi not finishing this term more likely. Whether it will be Yogi (as I originally expected) or someone else (given any current rift and also BJP's failure in UP) who takes over before 2029, I will re-evaluate at the correct time. As I keep saying, astrology is a probabilistic science. More up-to-date common sense and logical factors we incorporate, more correct we can be.

One last thought: I said a year ago that BJP should steer clear of religious politics in 2024 and focus on their achievements and future plans of material progress. Though most Muslims don't vote for BJP anyway, BJP did get a decent percentage of Pasmanda vote in the past in some regions. Alienating that group with some campaign rhetoric was IMHO very very very unwise.

PS: Though I expressed concerns about BJP fortunes in 2024 multiple times and pushed back on landslide expectations (especially during Feb-Apr), I do think BJP IS well-positioned for recovery, consolidation and a landslide in 2029. It will actually be a totally different world and India then. However, BJP should earnestly learn lessons from this narrow win in the short term, to facilitate that.

PPS: I said in my Alternative Media video that Congress would do much better than analysts expect but sticking to Rahul because of it would be a terrible mistake. Moving on from Rahul (to Priyanka or someone else) would be the right course for Congress, to maximize their future performance. This is really Rahul's career best and he can't improve on this.

[hanumadu]

If economy is the reason, why only UP and Maharashtra? Why not MP, Gujarat. Even Karnataka and Rajasthan gave decent results. Maharashtra, we know the reasons, but UP is a surprise.

[Cyrano]

I don't get this arrogance argument.

On one hand we blame NaMo for Sssv, getting turncoats into the party, being too soft on protesters and Didi,

Otoh he is suddenly arrogant bcoz something seriously went wrong in UP, MH.

Never heard of this Modi - Yogi rift even after Phases 1 & 2.

Suddenly RRR is a great economist once again! Susu is visionary! WTH - get a grip people.

Indian elections are worse than IPL matches. BJP has to re-learn this lesson which it will.

Let's celebrate Modi 3.0 for now and figure out the reasons for UP losses incl Amethi and Ayodhya later.

[triank]

Once Modiji is sworn in as PM things will fall onto place.
It will be for full term.

insha-Bhagwaan!! _/\_



some optimistic words by sushant sinha, with lessons & a grim reminder

translation:
all opposition joined hands yet still couldnt reduce more than 50-60 seats of modi but they are playing the narrative that "country has rejected modi".
BJP got historic victory in odisha, is forming govt in AP, got clean sweep in MP-guj, got significant increase in seats in south & odisha, emerging as the single largest party nationally but the narrative being set is that "we have defeated modi finally". whether they are able to form their own govt or not but are jubilant thinking that they 'defeated modi'. boss! if someone has been weakened by this mandate its not modi but the NATION!
india would be the lone country in the world which despite progressing at 8% growth, now sat in a 'time-machine' to go back to the era of the 90s where coalition-compulsions & politics ruled the roost.
those who are lambasting UP's public shouldnt do so. its the BJP who should introspect. public votes in a particular way only after seeing/thinking something seriously.

[triank]

I don't get this arrogance argument.

On one hand we blame NaMo for Sssv, getting turncoats into the party, being too soft on protesters and Didi,

Otoh he is suddenly arrogant bcoz something seriously went wrong in UP, MH.

Never heard of this Modi - Yogi rift even after Phases 1 & 2.

Suddenly RRR is a great economist once again! Susu is visionary! WTH - get a grip people.

Indian elections are worse than IPL matches. BJP has to re-learn this lesson which it will.

Let's celebrate Modi 3.0 for now and figure out the reasons for UP losses incl Amethi and Ayodhya later.

_/\_

"Like it or dislike it, BJP cadres and Hindu voters, started to take everything for granted, they became lethargic.

It's good to hit a roadblock and get shocks time to time, everyone trolled opposition, we believed to have completely wiped out INC, but what a comeback.

It's going to be interesting times ahead, with such an opposition lurking on you."

~AngrySaffron

[vijayk]

SO much of SM poison has been spreading against Modi/BJP in Instagram/youtube/whatsapp.
Their SM strategy has been trumped by Pappu ... The rumors were spreading with lightning speed. They probably didn't counter

[sajo]

Hamirpur
Dhaurahra
Farrukhabad
Salempur

The above seats in UP where <5k is the lead margin between the SP candidate and the competing BJP Candidate.

[Cyrano]

Thank you but I have nothing to do with angry saffron

[kvraghav]

No one counter that because they would immediately arrest. One youtuber from Maharashtra was arrested by kar police. The Police in BJP states should have been very proactive like Kar Police.

[Cyrano]

After a decade in power no excuses for not using the full extent of state machinery to maintain law and order

[Cyrano]

The astrologer PVNR seems like a nice guy, I watched a few of his videos, he was quite confident predicting 300+ for BJP and 350-380 for NDA. He should simply say he got it wrong and go back, redo the math and improve instead of giving some tortuous and unconvincing explanations.

[williams]

BJP vote share is 36.74% A lot of snakes will come out for a bite It is going to be a tough task to keep the momentum going and also create a transition plan to next generation leaders. Who said politics is easy in India? We need to fight it out and continue with the struggle. However congi ecosystem will now keep looking to buy out some of these snakes in JDU, TDP, JDS, SS etc. So I am not sure where that will lead.

[hanumadu]

Rajat Sharma of India TV observed that most seats congress got was in coalition. Where it is in direct contest with BJP, it got wiped out like in Gujarat and MP or got few seats like in Rajasthan or Karnataka. Even in Telangana, where BJP presence is small, it has the same number of seats as BJP. If BJP can get its act right next time, Congress can still go back to being below 50.

As per candidate selection in UP, did Namo and BJP leave too much to JP Nadda? Did Nadda f*ck up?

[SRajesh]

I think a Humble NaMo with certain changes to the ministry:
P Goyal for Finance
B Panda for Commerce
Gen Singh Defence via RS
Rajnath Home
Gadkari Deputy PM
Need to promote Rudy, Bansuri, S Trivedi, J Scindia(but he is a turncoat, still )
Dont know what to do with AS
The bogey of NaMo handing over to AS or even Yogi consolidated all peacefuls behind INDI (pasmanda or not)
Maybe AS shunted back to Gujurat as CM??
What was the issue in seat selection in Raj?? ditto UP???
if rumours are to be believed that there was a huge tiff between AS and Yogi is that true??
Petty egos spoling the larger picture do you think?? PMO should have based some heads if need to bring sanity??
What happened??

[kvraghav]

As per some news, the UP seat selection was so bad, Raja Bhaiya supported Akilesh on the last day. Raja Bhaiya was so close to Yogi ji.

[S_Madhukar]

Nanha mujahid in me thinks MoSha team would have thought of this eventuality else they would not have had so many rallies and events. If they could tackle JK and mandir then surely they can put their heads together and form a working govt and tackle things. We have at least for now a 24x7 PM, just would have hoped we also had 24x7 Hindus to back them up !

[vimal]

BJP’s tally is getting lower. They are at 239 at around 7:30pm IST. Congress 99.

[syam]

Its not 30% much as we would like to think so.
The % of Muslims voting is marginally higher, if their share of population is 14.1% not more than 15% of voters would be Muslim.
I had pointed out after the Karnataka assembly elections that BJP lost because they got a lower share of Hindu votes than Cong.

Their biggest loss in vote share was Maharashtra (Muslim vote not a big factor) in the Onion belt. Just maybe Govt onion export policy
flip flops had something to do with it ?
In UP, Muslim voters were already consolidated against BJP since 2014. The BJP has lost 9% vote share (50 to 41%).
It means 1 of every 5 Hindus who voted for the BJP in 2019, did not this time. It's not as if BJP suddenly got their caste arithmetic or
candidate selection wrong. Was Agniveer an issue among Rajputs ? I don't know. My point is its simplistic to say Muslim consolidation.

Deans gaaru, that's not what I am trying to say.
M population is around 25% in strategic places.They don't have to be 25% in every BJP strongholds. They can position at each strategic tight spots and get more dividends. Even now in UP, they didn't do much damage in strong areas. They focused mostly on the tough spots. With SaPa and other congi+ party support, they easily countered BJP in those 20-30 seats.
In democracy, you don't have to defeat the opponent with 100% majority. Just 51% is enough to make other side lose.
I am not saying M factor alone is the main thing to win elections. But it gives Congress +30% vote share from the get go compared to others. The rest 20% can be chipped away by doles and gifts.

Yes, but that's the point. Why talk of 400+ seats, which was almost impossible.
Why not say we've had to face huge challenges dealing with Covid and now a global recession and uncertainty. We hope the voters will continue
to have faith in us and give us a simple majority.
It is human nature to bash someone to sets an outsize goal at the expense of someone else and then fails.

If INDIA had been formed after the WB elections and got its act together (kept in Mamta and Nitish) INDIA would have won this election.
That WB election, or Karnataka after that should have alerted the BJP to the challenge of 2024 and got them to focus on how they were
performing in each seat.

Talking about 400+ is okay. But Modiji went further and boasted about that so called clever tactic in interviews too.
The advisors clearly screwed up. May be removal of RSS folks from the party impacted this feedback mechanism big time? We had Ram Madhav types in first term. We didn't see any sangh folks this term.

I agree with your take on INDI situation. They almost defeated Modiji. By Lord Ram's grace, some how Modiji survived today debacle.