2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[S_Madhukar]

I don't understand that PM was arrogant did not consult cabinet etc ... that guy was CM for a decade and had unparallel access at ground level, he is likely to know a few things more and ambitious to push them through. Did the bureaucracy he pushed too hard, party members with hurt egos and middle management wreck this. I can imaging plenty of people not wanting to work for a non-corrupt, ambitious, pushy guy thinking what's in it for them - happens a lot in corporate where your bosses bonus is far more than yours and you don't want to do the hard yards....

[S_Madhukar]

I am not sure if we have latest census numbers but do we have more M and cryptos than we think ? We know that tap from WB if not plugged is going to cause even more dislocations at some points. Our enemies surely can do a much much better professional job of regime change than we give them credit for

[Jay]

There's a lot of unnecessary doom and gloom here. At the end of the day, BJP/Modi will be in their term this time next week. Big lessons for BJP this time is they need to lower their head a notch and bring their ear closer to the ground. Never disparage/disregard your core constituency and that too for murky reasons. Having said this, we are looking at 10 years of anti-incumbency, BJP going in alone and leaving its coalition partners behind, and core supporters sitting down for elections resulted in this muted result, which will still give them the ability to form a government. You can look at this result as a low point and it can only go up from this stage.

Cheer up, folks. Modi 3.0 is well on its way. Its brand new day!

[Dilbu]

Even after all this goof up if we are still discussing about forming a govt, it is a win. Yes it is not the 400 par or Congress less than 70 as mentioned in the poll meetings but they did cross the 272 mark. The wipe out in east UP belt is what is hurting BJP. Otherwise even after all the INDI resurgence we should have been looking at BJP alone getting close to 265. It is not that bad considering that NaMo was asking for a continuous third term. I am happy to take the loss and look forward to rebuilding the base.

[Jay]

Even after all this goof up if we are still discussing about forming a govt, it is a win.

Exactly, Dilbu ji. Lets look at out glasses that are half full, thankfully.

[williams]

Even after all this goof up if we are still discussing about forming a govt, it is a win. Yes it is not the 400 par or Congress less than 70 as mentioned in the poll meetings but they did cross the 272 mark. The wipe out in east UP belt is what is hurting BJP. Otherwise even after all the INDI resurgence we should have been looking at BJP alone getting close to 265. It is not that bad considering that NaMo was asking for a continuous third term. I am happy to take the loss and look forward to rebuilding the base.

Yep all is not lost. But BJP needs serious introspection and course correction.

[Deans]

I am not sure if we have latest census numbers but do we have more M and cryptos than we think ? We know that tap from WB if not plugged is going to cause even more dislocations at some points. Our enemies surely can do a much much better professional job of regime change than we give them credit for

The Muslim numbers can be judged from electoral rolls. Cryptos are probably more in Andhra and TN, but NDA swept Andhra and they were never
in the running in TN.

[vimal]

Every election, we do the same analysis and back to same conclusion.
M is votebank.
H is a vote banks.

If Ram Mandir could not win you a seat in Ayodhya area then it's already a lost cause.
Caste, caste, caste.

[Deans]

Deans gaaru, that's not what I am trying to say.
M population is around 25% in strategic places.They don't have to be 25% in every BJP strongholds. They can position at each strategic tight spots and get more dividends. Even now in UP, they didn't do much damage in strong areas. They focused mostly on the tough spots. With SaPa and other congi+ party support, they easily countered BJP in those 20-30 seats.
In democracy, you don't have to defeat the opponent with 100% majority. Just 51% is enough to make other side lose.
I am not saying M factor alone is the main thing to win elections. But it gives Congress +30% vote share from the get go compared to others. The rest 20% can be chipped away by doles and gifts.

True, The seats where M population is 30% are a write-off. Apart from North Kerala, Kashmir valley, Lakshawdeep and Hyd, where BJP is not in contention, these comprise about 30 seats in Assam, WB, Bihar and UP. In the remaining 500 seats, they have to look at consolidation of Hindu votes.

[chetak]

Even after all this goof up if we are still discussing about forming a govt, it is a win. Yes it is not the 400 par or Congress less than 70 as mentioned in the poll meetings but they did cross the 272 mark. The wipe out in east UP belt is what is hurting BJP. Otherwise even after all the INDI resurgence we should have been looking at BJP alone getting close to 265. It is not that bad considering that NaMo was asking for a continuous third term. I am happy to take the loss and look forward to rebuilding the base.

Yep all is not lost. But BJP needs serious introspection and course correction.

williams ji,


The final results are not yet out

There will still be some shake out in the numbers.

I simply cannot believe the numbers from UP because of the BIF efforts to curtail and/or subvert the efforts of the BJP.

TN was money power all the way. Obscene amounts have been spent to defeat Annamalai, because he is an existential threat to them

But at the end of the day, the numbers are what they are

For Modiji, it will be an uphill task, with nose to the grindstone, all the way

My heart goes out to all of them

[Deans]

I don't understand that PM was arrogant did not consult cabinet etc ... that guy was CM for a decade and had unparallel access at ground level, he is likely to know a few things more and ambitious to push them through. Did the bureaucracy he pushed too hard, party members with hurt egos and middle management wreck this. I can imaging plenty of people not wanting to work for a non-corrupt, ambitious, pushy guy thinking what's in it for them - happens a lot in corporate where your bosses bonus is far more than yours and you don't want to do the hard yards....

As CM of Gujarat, he would rely on select bureaucrats to run the state and ignore his ministers. The same bureaucrats moved to the PMO.
You can't run India the way Gujarat was run. Ministers were not given bureaucrats of their choice (reduces Neta-babu nexus but signifies low trust)
and even the handpicked secretaries had to kowtow to the PMO. As long things are fine, as BJP is winning and Modiji is seen as a vote getter, these concerns are brushed aside. That's why even on this forum there is criticism when you don't perform as expected and you made only yourself the face of the campaign. At the minister/ bureaucrat/ MP level the attitude becomes `I don't need to do anything (nor am I allowed to), Modiji is running the country, I just need to be part of the winning team and not rock the boat.

[putnanja]

Ayodhya was a shocker! After the temple got built, the city got a makeover and there are lakhs of pilgrims to the city driving up economic activity, and still those people voted for SP which opened fire on kar sevaks! Unbelievable!

And Varanasi, where the PM has transformed the city and ghats and temple complex, Modi's margin reduced to just above a lakh? And SP candidate getting so much votes? If it wasn't Lord Vishawanatha's city, I would have said they deserved to live in filth.

Ungrateful wretches! With such people around, I am losing hope of Sanatana dharma holding the fort against adharmis

[Sicanta]

The info about efforts to curtail yogi and cut him down to size - I heard these rumors earlier too in political corridors. But I discounted it as efforts to create divisions between modi and yogi.

But now I guess, there was a grain of truth somewhere inside.

[chetak]

Ayodhya was a shocker! After the temple got built, the city got a makeover and there are lakhs of pilgrims to the city driving up economic activity, and still those people voted for SP which opened fire on kar sevaks! Unbelievable!

And Varanasi, where the PM has transformed the city and ghats and temple complex, Modi's margin reduced to just above a lakh? And SP candidate getting so much votes? If it wasn't Lord Vishawanatha's city, I would have said they deserved to live in filth.

Ungrateful wretches! With such people around, I am losing hope of Sanatana dharma holding the fort against adharmis

putnanja ji,

The UP numbers simply don't compute. There were other forces in play

Two clowns represent a clear and present danger to Modiji, and both have outsize ambitions that far out strips their abilities and both are licking their chops, while waiting to pounce

[Cyrano]

Deans ji,
In the umpteen interviews by Dr SJ, Modi's style of functioning he described was just the opposite in cabinet meetings. He actively asks for feedback and is open to changing his mind, but sets ambitious goals and vision. Pushes everyone hard, but himself harder.

Unless you have some first hand info, this is looking like innuendo mixed with MBA gyan. Respectfully....

[SRajesh]

Chetakji
As the peacefuls voted as they did do you think the Dravidian voted as they did regardless of NaMo overtures!!
HIndsight is a great gift but in hindsight:
Pasmanda did not get much traction as believed
Women did not vote overwhelming to NaMo(may have to wait for full details later, but numbers tell a story)
And all that Tamil contribution highlighted what did it get NaMo
I wonder if it just reinforced the Tamil Chauvinism and indirectly strengthened the Dravidian politics??
And I am not doing whataboutry here
Just thinking alound and see anything be changed for 2029

[syam]

We also have real clown bjp eco-system. It is worst thing out there.

There was FMF channel back in first term. It took that german youtuber to cleaners. The cong+ used their clout and destroyed FMF guy. BJP never put any effort in protecting those pro-BJP accounts. Same happened with True Indology too.
In this term, we seen String Vinod account being suspended on youtube. BJP didn't bother with it.

BJP simply didn't care about this social media perception. Now crying about it. Social media may not have much effect on masses. But it effects the elites in the society. They have much free time to spread this content offline and create negative perception.

Except foriegn policy, Modiji doesn't enjoy much positivity in higher income circles. Nirmala Sitaraman didn't do any thing bad. But she is the most vilified minister in the second term. If you talk with any guy, he has mostly bad words to talk about her.

All these things won't have any impact. But bit by bit, it adds. And create enough traction for cong+ to launch their insane accusations.

Same with Manipur. Much worst things happened in WB. But some how Manipur is more known incident among the masses. BJP lost the perception battle big time.

[sanjayc]

Even after all this goof up if we are still discussing about forming a govt, it is a win.

Exactly, Dilbu ji. Lets look at out glasses that are half full, thankfully.

The total seats of entire INDIA Alliance are less than the seats BJP got just for itself.

[Sumeet]

Connected with few relatives in UP

Caste based politics & voting
Agniveer is bad scheme because people look at army to give jobs
Bad ticket distribution
Modi became pretty arrogant so some opposition will keep him in check
Degree of complacency in BJP

But mainly caste based voting did BJP. No mention of Yogi vs Modi angle

[krithivas]

WhatsApp Wisdom: The people of India handed NDA a victory that looks like a defeat, and Congress a defeat that looks like a victory.

Quote Credit -- Unknown. not mine

[SRajesh]

Syam ji
Yes just like immediate after Balakote India seem to have lost the perception battle though it a long time for things to be evened out

[vijayk]

If you remember in 2019

1. They had several caste sammelan reachout in 2019 (OBC/Thakur/Brahmin)
2. State co-ordinator for each state from RSS
3. Freebies for farmers

This year I did not hear anything ...

[SRajesh]

Sumeetji
What is the caste wise population base in UP
Peacefuls and Yadavs are out
What about the others??
How can tier II or III leadership built up??
Because whatever happens in future, all roads to Dilli will still lead via UP

[vijayk]

BhikuMhatre (Modi's Family) @MumbaichaDon

"BJP lost in UP because . @AmitShah Ji rejected 35 candidates suggested by .@myogiadityanath Ji"
This narrative being spread to create rift within BJP.
My question to those who are doing it....
Why did . @narendramodi Ji's Margin come down to only 1.5 Lakh Votes? He was a

The real reason seems freebie’s offered by #RahulGandhi and #AkhileshYadav of providing 8,500 per month ~ 1.00 lacs per year to women.

They both clearly know 1. Muslims don’t have option except vote then and 2. Greedy and Needy Hindus give vote for money ?

In this manner they get vote of both ? Unfortunately they found large no of Hindus who got trapped in their Games ?

#Modiji #BjpAlliance #LokSabhaElections2024 #UttarPardesh #ModiTsunami #ModiKoLayenge

[vijayk]

Post

N Chandrababu Naidu @ncbn
Thank you, @narendramodi Ji! On behalf of the people of Andhra Pradesh, I congratulate you on the NDA's victory in the Lok Sabha and Andhra Pradesh Assembly Elections. Our people of Andhra Pradesh have blessed us with a remarkable mandate. This mandate is a reflection of their trust in our alliance and its vision for the state. Together with our people, we shall rebuild Andhra Pradesh and restore its glory.

Narendra Modi @narendramodi
Andhra Pradesh has given an exceptional mandate to NDA! I thank the people of the state for their blessings. I congratulate @ncbn Garu, @PawanKalyan Garu and the Karyakartas of @JaiTDP, @JanaSenaParty and @BJP4Andhra for this emphatic victory.

[uddu]

Few interesting tweets
https://x.com/Rajeev_GoI/status/1798002373081833711
https://twitter.com/Hariindic/status/17 ... 4440167787
https://x.com/ShefVaidya/status/1798002399506059276
https://x.com/rishibagree/status/1798003599597027407

[hanumadu]

I don't understand that PM was arrogant did not consult cabinet etc ... that guy was CM for a decade and had unparallel access at ground level, he is likely to know a few things more and ambitious to push them through. Did the bureaucracy he pushed too hard, party members with hurt egos and middle management wreck this. I can imaging plenty of people not wanting to work for a non-corrupt, ambitious, pushy guy thinking what's in it for them - happens a lot in corporate where your bosses bonus is far more than yours and you don't want to do the hard yards....

As CM of Gujarat, he would rely on select bureaucrats to run the state and ignore his ministers. The same bureaucrats moved to the PMO.
You can't run India the way Gujarat was run. Ministers were not given bureaucrats of their choice (reduces Neta-babu nexus but signifies low trust)
and even the handpicked secretaries had to kowtow to the PMO. As long things are fine, as BJP is winning and Modiji is seen as a vote getter, these concerns are brushed aside. That's why even on this forum there is criticism when you don't perform as expected and you made only yourself the face of the campaign. At the minister/ bureaucrat/ MP level the attitude becomes `I don't need to do anything (nor am I allowed to), Modiji is running the country, I just need to be part of the winning team and not rock the boat.

It doesn't look it looking at the way several ministers function.
Jai Shankar - doesn't seem to consult the PM every time he opens his mouth. Not practical. In fact, just contrast him with Sushma Swaraj. If PMO was controlling everything, they couldn't have such different styles.
Ashiwini Vaishnav - Seems independent and does a good job
Hardeep Singh Puri - Doesn't look like being controlled by PMO
Piyush Goyal - Senior, experienced and seems to enjoy working on Modi
Nitin Gadkari - He seems to be free enough to build infrastructure the way he wants. Talks about getting this technoloy or that technology all the time. Not signs of someone being controlled by above
Dharmendra Pradhan - Earned a good reputation during his time as Oil and Gas minister
Dr Mansukh Mandaviya- Earned praised for how he handled covid

The list goes on. It is impossible to run a country and not delegate or not trust others.

[hanumadu]

Deans ji,
In the umpteen interviews by Dr SJ, Modi's style of functioning he described was just the opposite in cabinet meetings. He actively asks for feedback and is open to changing his mind, but sets ambitious goals and vision. Pushes everyone hard, but himself harder.

Unless you have some first hand info, this is looking like innuendo mixed with MBA gyan. Respectfully....

Modi himself said he is good at finding the right person for the job. And looking at his choices over the years, its not far from the truth.

[syam]

SRajesh ji, it's much more delicate issue than that.
Everyone talking about Manipur while completely ignoring WB situation. For the general public, WB is just political conflict. All those terrors will be swept under rug.
Also youtube played huge role in setting the narrative. They boosted Manipur related videos and they were shown when you open the app.

It's big mess.

[sajo]

Modi Ji Just said on Live TV , "Big decisions would be taken in our third term , this is Modi's Guarantee". I just found my dhoti floating around in the wind and looking to wrap myself back up for cyclical shibbering.

[Pradyut]

My quick take (first post in my current avatar).

Everything has happened due to factors whatever we used to complaint about.

- Not reigning in the BIF ecosystem.
- Bad candidate selections
- Allowing all and sundry, trash elements from other parties into BJP.
- Why Nadda is still around? Can fight without RSS as he was bragging?
- Not crushing the CAA protests, anti-farm bill protests.
- Not even taking a token stand for those fighting on behalf of our right wing. We have lost some of the best right wing SM influencing voices due to BIF tactics.
- Agniveer scheme was a mistake. There are many ways to manage the outgoing trained manpower. Bad optics for regions that traditionally send youngsters to the Armed Fprces. It is beyond "sarkari naukri" factor. Pride and family profession.
- Poor booth management. Don't need RSS?
- Hubris. Arrogance. Why was Yogi Adityanath not seen in campaign? Don't we know the reasons?

Around my place there was not even a BJP polling agent in the booth. I can imagine in absence of their agent during counting process what kind of rigging is possible.

No matter how hard you try, no Muslim is going to vote for BJP. We have start at that average -20% baseline.
What did Mr. Modi do? Went for M appeasement and sidelined the core Hindu voter.

Mr. Modi is delusional, if he thinks that he has personally got the mandate.

The 240+ odd seats are pure consolidated, polarised Hindu votes.
BJP will get the same numbers with a margin of error if they field a pan Indian BJP face.
Mr, Modi is not the cause, rather the outcome of Hindu consolidation.

Having said that, better candidate selection, media management, a favourable summer condition and amiable RSS ground support would have gotten them 300+ very easily.

Its time to pass the baton, 2 - 3 years down the line.

We need a hardliner that can enthuse the core vote base and expand it beyond minimum threshold.

[SRajesh]

Combative NaMo speech
he has debunked INDI claim of victory.
Lets see how the cabinet pans out.
Gadkari not on the podium JP, AS and Kadhi Ninja onlee
I dont think there will be any compromise with Nagpur

[V_Raman]

The whisper campaign that there will be a constitution overhaul and reservations would get removed seems to have had impact across UP/WB. Split of dalit vote is the key story here.

[Neela]

Goes to show that caste,ethnic(Dravidian, Sikh) and religion angles from BIF has a lot relevance in elections. The scale of relevance can be argued depending on how you look at NDA alliance and UP numbers.

I do believe caste and ethnic divisions are yielding diminishing returns...but not at the pace at which BJP thinks. Boiling the frog approach? Is 2029 too early?

Lets not forget that 240 is a massive number. And the opposition is as cohesive as a pizza and coconut chutney. There are games to be played.

2029 will be monumental uphill battle.
Gharwapsi as a national mission.
Muslim caste break up - let the gaze of Sauron turn inwards.
Go after the weaker ones. ADMK does not lack a charismatic leader. Use whatever on Khalistani pasand folk.
Mamata - WB needs some bloody thing ...it is not going to be nice either way. Maybe that will be Modi's parting gift .

It takes a country roughly 20-25 years to jump from low-income to middle income on the back of stable economic policies.

[vimal]

While everyone is doom and gloom people forget:

- MP - BJP clean sweep. Strong local leader.
- Uttarakhand BJP clean sweep. Zero local leadership
- AP - TDP/BJP - Excellent performance

[syam]

Actually, BJP gained big this time. They are quietly forming government in Odisha. And they achieved 11% vote share in TN.

Everything is on dot except UP and MH.

[AshishA]

Deans ji,
In the umpteen interviews by Dr SJ, Modi's style of functioning he described was just the opposite in cabinet meetings. He actively asks for feedback and is open to changing his mind, but sets ambitious goals and vision. Pushes everyone hard, but himself harder.

Unless you have some first hand info, this is looking like innuendo mixed with MBA gyan. Respectfully....

Modi himself said he is good at finding the right person for the job. And looking at his choices over the years, its not far from the truth.

Gotta remember that this is before 2019. Dr SJ and his working style got different when after 2019. I feel the death of Arun Jaitley impacted him deeply. He was the one who could encourage feedback and he was not a sidekick like Shah. Modi could also trust him completely.

[Anujan]

Goes to show that caste,ethnic(Dravidian, Sikh) and religion angles from BIF has a lot relevance in elections. The scale of relevance can be argued depending on how you look at NDA alliance and UP numbers.

I do believe caste and ethnic divisions are yielding diminishing returns...but not at the pace at which BJP thinks. Boiling the frog approach? Is 2029 too early?

I think BJP made a strategic mistake by not trying to win Muslim votes. If Muslim votes consolidate to congress/regional party, the best way for the INDI alliance to win is to split the Hindu vote across caste lines and by handing out freebies. Which is exactly what they did

Rahul Baba goes out and says BJP will cancel reservations and promises to hand out 1 Lakh to everyone, and do wealth redistribution. That would find appeal among a section of the poor.


On another note, why not hoopla about EVM getting rigged and Amit Shah calling up 150 collectors? Suddenly we are a democracy?

This is the first fascist dictator rule that i've seen which holds free and fair elections.

[Deans]

Deans ji,
In the umpteen interviews by Dr SJ, Modi's style of functioning he described was just the opposite in cabinet meetings. He actively asks for feedback and is open to changing his mind, but sets ambitious goals and vision. Pushes everyone hard, but himself harder.

Unless you have some first hand info, this is looking like innuendo mixed with MBA gyan. Respectfully....

Cyrano ji, I have heard the same interviews of Dr SJ - who I consider among the best foreign ministers in the world. I would like to think this is
the case and I agree with his description being personally concerned about people and pushing himself hard etc.
There is a more nuanced view from Anil Swarup (who served in UPA 2 and NDA 1). He saw a change in Modi's style after Demo. You can see his YT
interviews. I personally know a secretary GOI who has described what I posted.

That said, none of us knows enough to really make a judgement, I'm going by a combination of things - incl this result, to hypothesize that arrogance was a factor.

Let's take examples we are all aware of:

1. Farm Bill. It could have been a model law for a states to implement. But was pushed as PM's initiative to double farmers incomes (which have
actually fallen in real terms in the last 5 years and may be part of the reason for this result). If he had listened to SAD, he would have
realized that there would be resistance from Punjab. He disregarded that advice and when protests started, wanted to double down on
his proposed bill. If he had allowed the states to choose, the SAD might have continued the alliance with BJP and going by today's result,
may have won 9 of the 13 Punjab seats. Add another 4 seats lost in Haryana.

2. Agnipath: I think, as did the majority of the Army's leadership that it was a sound scheme in principal. However, former COAS Gen Naravane
suggests it came from the blue and was pushed by the PMO more than the RM /MOD, with the army not fully taken into confidence, with the
result that there are unaddressed concerns. This is the kind of scheme that needs a buy-in from all stakeholders. In the 2 states with the
highest % of armed forces personnel, BJP lost 10% vote share in Himachal and 5% in Uttarakhand. This will be glossed over because they
swept both states. Perhaps the vote share loss in Punjab, Haryana and West UP were also due to this (apart from farm protests).

I liked that Govt schemes were called `Pradhan Mantri....' instead of named after the Gandhi family. However, over time every govt initiative seemed to have the PM's pic on it - from vaccine certificates to the local chemist. Having the Ahmedabad stadium named after him, was when
I felt that years in power and the feeling that he was invincible, had changed him. His `god has sent me...' statement was another example.

The highest margin of victory in this election was Shivraj Singh Chouhan, by 8 lac. Maybe that's the kind of personality voters want - Modi without
the larger than life charisma. That is also the image the RSS would like its leaders to have.

[vimal]

Also, Facebook and YouTube offices in Hyderabad control Indian SM. No prizes for guessing which population is pulling the strings.