2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[vijayk]

In UP, there was an interview by a journalist with women in a village and BJP sarpanch. Half of the women said they don't have ration card. He demanded 3000 for ration card. Some got it. The interviewer asked him why he did not give it. He was evading. Unfortunately all these hurt Modiji.

[KL Dubey]

This election has been a wild ride. I'm glad NaMo is back. Some things do rankle (voter fatigue/disinterest in their own future), but I see he is raring to start work in Modi sarkar 3.0.

Let's look forward to the next 5 years of Modi guarantee, and let Modi and Shah overhaul the party infrastructure as needed after internal assessment especially in UP, MH, RJ, and HR.

Great to see two new NDA goremints in OD and AP.

Will be back after a while, once posters have vented everything they want.

[chetak]

via @ WA

Rahul Gandhi will be PM one day. Every BJP supporter should accept this reality.

He may be PM tomorrow. Maybe not tomorrow, but some day for sure.

He is only 53. He will contest at least another 6-7 general elections.

He is bound to win one and become PM.

[AshishA]

via @ WA

Rahul Gandhi will be PM one day. Every BJP supporter should accept this reality.

He may be PM tomorrow. Maybe not tomorrow, but some day for sure.

He is only 53. He will contest at least another 6-7 general elections.

He is bound to win one and become PM.

There are no constants or certainty anywhere.

1. Yesterday, no one would have Modi would have gotten anything less than 300 seats.
2. No one would have thought Naveen Patnaik would lose.
3. No one in 80s would have thought BJP will once rule for 10 years with absolute majority and is on its way to break Nehruji record.
4. Like I said, the only certainty in this world is that there is no certainty.

[sanjayc]

via @ WA

Rahul Gandhi will be PM one day. Every BJP supporter should accept this reality.

He may be PM tomorrow. Maybe not tomorrow, but some day for sure.

He is only 53. He will contest at least another 6-7 general elections.

He is bound to win one and become PM.

Congress would be finished once SG kicks the bucket. She is 77 currently. RG doesn't have the personality to keep Congress warlords united under his banner

[vimal]

In UP, there was an interview by a journalist with women in a village and BJP sarpanch. Half of the women said they don't have ration card. He demanded 3000 for ration card. Some got it. The interviewer asked him why he did not give it. He was evading. Unfortunately all these hurt Modiji.

I can tell 100 such stories about Congressi sarpanch. For some reason it’s only BJP that loses votes.

[Srutayus]

Rahul Gandhi will be PM one day. Every BJP supporter should accept this reality.

He may be PM tomorrow. Maybe not tomorrow, but some day for sure.

He is only 53. He will contest at least another 6-7 general elections.

He is bound to win one and become PM.

Someone like Rahul becoming the PM will set the country back by 30 years. And for the resurgence of Dharma, it will be like Panipat.The venom he has exhibited has grown manifold; one only has to listen to his speeches. And there are the speech writers behind him.

Let us resolve to never let that happen. Ever. No one should accept a Panipat as inevitable. Remember that our prosperity and Dharma has still not recovered from Panipat 250 years later. The opposition in its current form is evil and should be annihilated. The ruling and opposition should both come out of the Dharmic ecosystem.

Don't put much credence in blaming an imaginary rift within the BJP or other such rumors. The fact is that less than 50% of dharmics have always voted for the BJP, in all elections. They have repeatedly been split into caste faultiness, and there is a well piled system that feeds on this. We need to resolve to work on these issues with all of us contributing.

[Sachin]

via @ WA
Rahul Gandhi will be PM one day. Every BJP supporter should accept this reality.

I too saw this, and you have not pasted the full message. The poster clearly says;
1. Dynasts will continue to rule India.
2. Pappu will have colleges and universities build on his name (which Na.Mo or BJP did not do - i.e use the names), kids would queue upto join those 'prestigious' places as well.

Akhilesh Yadav case was also cited as another example.

[triank]

BhikuMhatre (Modi's Family) @MumbaichaDon

@syam ji, while lack of recognition/aid to supporters from the BJP has been one of the top complaints from the party of many of us, this person ('BhikhuMhatre' handle) had recently tweeted how BJP had helped him when he was embroiled in a case by iirc the prev. MH govt. same way i believe (hope so) that atleast vinod too should have.

----------------------------------------------------------

someone wrote that the results/numbers from UP dont seem to add up. just now read from some folks this:

the govt school teachers in UP have scammed a lot for OPS (old pension scheme). mostly these guys only have helped in election-campaigns/duties, and dedicated all their efforts to help SP by getting several votes polled in favour of the party. otherwise there was no wave no-nothing for SP. multiple such cases. they're asking people to inform about this to Yogiji.

[Deans]

As CM of Gujarat, he would rely on select bureaucrats to run the state and ignore his ministers. The same bureaucrats moved to the PMO.
You can't run India the way Gujarat was run. Ministers were not given bureaucrats of their choice (reduces Neta-babu nexus but signifies low trust)
and even the handpicked secretaries had to kowtow to the PMO. As long things are fine, as BJP is winning and Modiji is seen as a vote getter, these concerns are brushed aside. That's why even on this forum there is criticism when you don't perform as expected and you made only yourself the face of the campaign. At the minister/ bureaucrat/ MP level the attitude becomes `I don't need to do anything (nor am I allowed to), Modiji is running the country, I just need to be part of the winning team and not rock the boat.

It doesn't look it looking at the way several ministers function.
Jai Shankar - doesn't seem to consult the PM every time he opens his mouth. Not practical. In fact, just contrast him with Sushma Swaraj. If PMO was controlling everything, they couldn't have such different styles.
Ashiwini Vaishnav - Seems independent and does a good job
Hardeep Singh Puri - Doesn't look like being controlled by PMO
Piyush Goyal - Senior, experienced and seems to enjoy working on Modi
Nitin Gadkari - He seems to be free enough to build infrastructure the way he wants. Talks about getting this technoloy or that technology all the time. Not signs of someone being controlled by above
Dharmendra Pradhan - Earned a good reputation during his time as Oil and Gas minister
Dr Mansukh Mandaviya- Earned praised for how he handled covid

The list goes on. It is impossible to run a country and not delegate or not trust others.

I agree with your view on the ministers you listed. As I had posted earlier, Ashwini Vaishnav and Dr JS from NDA 2, are exceptions.
I think part of the reason was the the PMO realized it did not have subject matter knowledge. Add Gadkari and Piyush Goyal from NDA-1.
But there are 80 ministers in all. At the beginning of NDA-1, there were 42 ministers in the govt and justified the claim of minimum govt.
This was then increased to 63, which was the same as the number in the UPA 2.0 govt. It was then increased further.

There were frequent changes in ministries like Education, where the govt was not able to replace existing colonial era thinking.
Look at the number of defense ministers in NDA-1.

Why replace Dharmendra Pradhan with Hardeep Puri (and a MOS who may not be required), if the former was doing a good job. Why pull
Hardeep out of Civil Aviation just as he was coming to grips with it ? Then, at a crucial time in world oil markets, Hardeep is also in charge of
the Central vista project (as housing minister).

On Covid, what did Dr Mandanvia do, which Dr. Harshvardhan did not ? Who recommended the big decisions on extended lockdowns etc.
My sense is it wasn't the minister. The PM was the only person who (repeatedly) addressed the nation during covid. Not the minister, or the equivalent of Dr Fauci or the chief scientific advisor to the UK PM.
We landed on the Moon. I would have liked to see the Minster of Science and tech say a few words on TV. Do we even know his name ?

I'm not suggesting that ministers need to consult the PM on everything, or have no authority, but the perception is that Modi is seen more
often than perhaps the rest of his cabinet combined and most initiatives are credited to the PM.

[triank]

also, the raitas/popcorns are also jubilant/'relieved' on BJP's defeat in Ayodhya & lesser margin for Modiji in Varanasi, calling it the result of "wanton destruction of smaller Temples, Vigrahas, AkshayaVat Tree, small shops" for Kashi Vishwanath Corridor & for the Ram Mandir Maarg, as well as the "wrong muhurta" & "wrong" person chosen for the Praan Pratishtha ritual ceremony.

[syam]

@syam ji, while lack of recognition/aid to supporters from the BJP has been one of the top complaints from the party of many of us, this person ('BhikhuMhatre' handle) had recently tweeted how BJP had helped him when he was embroiled in a case by iirc the prev. MH govt. same way i believe (hope so) that atleast vinod too should have.

Let's see how they handle this setback. The enemies will be more brazen now though.

[A_Gupta]

In the quieter sections of the video media, where people don't shout at each other, the sentiment captured from many villagees is that the Mukhia works very hard in the first term, tends to slack off in the second term, and "sar pe chad jaate hain" in the third term. Who knows, neither anecdotes nor professional psephology seems to be able to predict the minds of the Indian voters.

Also, I think that the opinion polls showing extremely high popularity of Modi are not wrong (but who can say?!). Perhaps the psephologists in their polls measured Brand Modi and assumed that it matched Brand BJP. IMO, BJP's brand is poor and BJPers in power do act highhanded and without adequate respect and humility. They are not immune from the afflictions of the powerful office-holders.

From @vijayk post, quoting PVNR:

"> One last thought: I said a year ago that BJP should steer clear of religious politics in 2024 and focus on their achievements and future plans of material progress. Though most Muslims don't vote for BJP anyway, BJP did get a decent percentage of Pasmanda vote in the past in some regions. Alienating that group with some campaign rhetoric was IMHO very very very unwise."

This is associated with the BJP brand. Anecdotally only, I can say, in the past I have encountered non-Hindus who give Modi high marks and the BJP low marks.

---
Having watched most of PM Modi's interviews, what I can say is that I came out very impressed with him. He is not a superman or an all-knowing person. He enters new situations with the same lack of knowledge that we all would have in new situations that we encounter; but his intelligence and political skills make him a quick learner, and he comes up with viable strategies. It is fashionable to blame or credit everything that happens to PM Modi - blame from the Opposition, "Modi ki saazish" and credit from bhakts - the fact is that PM Modi is mortal, can absorb only a finite amount of information; and has the same problem as all of us do of separating out the signal from the noise. And what he does cannot be better than the quality of information that he has.

Therefore, all true friends of PM Modi and therefore the political party that sustains his government must be strict adherents of Satya. Like all mortals he needs accurate feedback, not unthinking adulation. The above quote is one of it. Though I must add that this election has shown that the quality of supposedly professionally collected data is lousy; and PM Modi no doubt relied on it to a similar extent that we all did. Relying on anecdote is also not an option. So I don't know the way forward.

[putnanja]

RG will probably go the way of SG, declining to become PM and putting a puppet in place and controlling the govt remotely like NAC in the past. And that's an even greater danger as we saw what the NAC did and what SG did with her power without accountability. That way. he will project he is not power hungry while controlling the govt remotely. So cong shouldn't be allowed anywhere near power as they will destroy the country from inside. I hope this is the last time cong gets more than 50 seats

[Jay]

I can tell 100 such stories about Congressi sarpanch. For some reason it’s only BJP that loses votes.

Sir ji, congress is not ruling, right? It's a time tested truth that accusations of corruption, inaction always work against the incumbent.

[Dilbu]

More than anything the 400 paar slogan did the damage of a double edged sword. It consolidated the enemies and scared them into action and at the same time the average BJP supporter read the message as we are anyway going to win onlee. He either did not venture out in the heat to cast the vote or decided to vote according to other local issues or caste formulae thinking Modiji does not need my vote for a win. It almost became another India Shining saga.

[Hriday]

In today's Malayala Manorama newspaper front page, Congress is quoted as saying that BJP will not go above 240-250. Congress says that is the estimate of RSS also.

May be an amazing coincidence, but I saw several posters here suggesting an internal fight within Sangh Parivar as a major reason for the fall in the seats. Pollster @sreeramjvc also made a similar comment.
https://x.com/sreeramjvc/status/1797930 ... aTyyw&s=19

Sangh is needed to score facile victory.

What I heard in Amethi has come true.

[ramana]

Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Western UP have a common theme of rural economic distress as underlying circumstances.
The pandemic and farm laws uncertainty made it worse.

[triank]

In the quieter sections of the video media, where people don't shout at each other, the sentiment captured from many villagees is that the Mukhia works very hard in the first term, tends to slack off in the second term, and "sar pe chad jaate hain" in the third term. Who knows, neither anecdotes nor professional psephology seems to be able to predict the minds of the Indian voters.

Also, I think that the opinion polls showing extremely high popularity of Modi are not wrong (but who can say?!). Perhaps the psephologists in their polls measured Brand Modi and assumed that it matched Brand BJP. IMO, BJP's brand is poor and BJPers in power do act highhanded and without adequate respect and humility. They are not immune from the afflictions of the powerful office-holders.

i had been wanting to share this - a friend from indore has over the years been telling me about the goondagardi & high-handedness of local BJP leadership there & their chelas (about ppl like kailash vijayvargeeya, his son, & their cohorts). past couple of years he didnt tell me anymore about this but recently few days back he told me again about an incident through his acquaintances from his former bank & some govt officials, that the local leadership's goons have become even more emboldened over the past few years. says that his acquaintances complain that at the level of Modi-Shah its okay, but here locally the situation has been like this only. committing criminal acts under the comfortable cover of 'Hinduttva'. one name he often mentions is of the state gen secy gaurav randive (long back he also told me a personal incident involving him). told me about the case of usurping of land by destroying the crop of a poor villager & getting him illegally locked up & harassed for 3 days. sdm collector couldnt do anything to help. approaching the CM too wont be of use he says as its rumoured that the new CM himself is "principal of the school where such tactics are taught." i suggested my friend to advise his acquaintance (a govt officer) who had accompanied the local tahsildar to write to the PMO, but being a govt officer he wont be able to do that i was told. he says the only solution to the villager it seems, is that he vacates his plot/land & relocates to somewhere else. so all-in-all they say that if CONgress comes to power then too people are screwed, and if BJP retains power then too these goonish people retain their fiefdom & do such things. so caught between a rock & a hard place.

[vijayk]

[Cyrano]

Ramana garu, perhaps you meant eastern UP

[Srutayus]

One last thought: I said a year ago that BJP should steer clear of religious politics in 2024 and focus on their achievements and future plans of material progress. Though most Muslims don't vote for BJP anyway, BJP did get a decent percentage of Pasmanda vote in the past in some regions. Alienating that group with some campaign rhetoric was IMHO very very very unwise."

People are more receptive to negative messages. Focusing on positive developments alone would not be enough. There has to be a fear of loss. And the less said about the Qaum, the better. Processions by educated people from the Ummah in developed countries supporting Hamas the day after October 7 reveal a lot. Let's be careful not to learn the wrong lessons.

On the other hand, there may not have been enough fear amongst BJP supporters, dharmics, and the business community of the BJP losing. Did the middle class seriously ponder the possibility of their taxes being channeled to fund the welfare schemes Rahul was promising? Probably not.

Remind people of what they can lose.

[Deans]

A quick look at the data:
The lower turnout had nothing to do with the result, as I posted earlier. For e.g. the fall in turnout was highest in Kerala.

The BJP lost vote share in all its core states. Its less apparent since it gained share on Odisha, Andhra, TN and Kerala.
There is a 8% vote share loss in UP, 10% in Rajasthan & Himachal. It means that 20% of the Hindus in these states who voted BJP in
2019, did not this time.

In Uttarakhand and WB the vote share loss was 5%
In WB when Anti incumbency was predicted against Mamta and the BJP presumably learnt from its mistakes in the assembly election, lesser
Hindus voted for the party in 2024 compared to 2019 in WB. A 5% drop in a close 2 party race can make a close contest a rout.

In Bihar a 2% drop in BJP share per seat in contested, but a 2% rise in the JDU share per seat contested.
One needs to understand why the vote share fell. I have no clue but know it wasn't turnout, weather, Muslims etc.

Among its core states, only in MP, the BJP gained 1% share. (Quiet work by the unassuming Shivraj Singh?)

BJP did better in cities (where presumably social media influence was higher).

[A_Gupta]

^^^

Opposition raised "Modi will end reservation". BJP raised "INDI will give your reservation to the Quam".
Both raised fear of loss. But one message was targeted against a group.

Given that there is zero claim of discrimination against the Quam in all the housing, gas connection, ration, mudra loan, health insurance etc., schemes, the BJP message could have been different, still raising the fear of loss, but not targeting anyone.

That is, when your policy does not discriminate against anyone, your campaign rhetoric should not target anyone when you raise the fear of loss.

[Deans]

Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Western UP have a common theme of rural economic distress as underlying circumstances.
The pandemic and farm laws uncertainty made it worse.

Add to this Northern Karnataka, where the BJP lost ALL 7 seats bordering Andhra.
In Maharashtra losses in the Onion belt.
Rural incomes have actually declined in real terms in the last 5 years.

[V_Raman]

My counter point again on this election
- This was a 2-way fight and BJP was at a disadvantage from Day 1
- Opposition had all sorts of freebies on the table
- BJP UP internal politics
- Whisper campaign of reservation being removed
- Threat of violence in WB
- Super candidate selection by the opposition

BJP is the SLP by a wide margin even after all this - and AP/OD in dharmic fold - truly a monumental achievement!

If NDA can form government and last 5 years - that is the true awakening - will break the back of CONgress ecosystem IMO

[chetak]

via @ WA

Rahul Gandhi will be PM one day. Every BJP supporter should accept this reality.

He may be PM tomorrow. Maybe not tomorrow, but some day for sure.

He is only 53. He will contest at least another 6-7 general elections.

He is bound to win one and become PM.

Congress would be finished once SG kicks the bucket. She is 77 currently. RG doesn't have the personality to keep Congress warlords united under his banner

sanjayc ji,


The BJP's seat selection was also messed up

They had given tickets to 133 non BJP persons who joined just before the elections

Of these, only four (4) managed to win and 129 lost

Many of these were perhaps due to internal sabotage or infighting

These seats could have easily been given to long serving , deserving BJP karyakarthas instead of to such mostly tainted "imports"

Import of guys like ajit pawar who ultimately just delivered one seat gave rise to a lot of resentment in the BJP rank and file, while he had fought on something like 8 seats

shinde too did not do so well to keep his end of things up.

all in all, it was a bad bargain

[williams]

More and more I feel Hindu consolidation is just a day dream. Hindus are divided by nature and so going for such a strategy is a waste of time.

[chetak]

More and more I feel Hindu consolidation is just a day dream. Hindus are divided by nature and so going for such a strategy is a waste of time.

williams ji,


jihadis, along with dalits consolidated and voted tactically whereas the "ought to knoe better" Hindus voted their caste and wantonly fractured their own future

Do you realize what it takes to create a leader like Modiji ....

It is rare. It happens, perhaps once in a generation. It took Modiji decades of relentless work to become a PM candidate.


Ayodhya defeat: Hindus failed the nation despite having an 84.75% majority.

This result speaks volumes about the trustworthiness of Hindus.

Forget about Mathura and Kashi. enjoy your holidays, Hindus

[williams]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2024-06-04

I am not sure how much of this is true. Any reason they benched VKS? He seemed to do pretty good work.

[AkshaySG]

As the day progressed I have to come to think that BJP (and we) actually got a lifeline and a second chance

The stars had aligned for a complete 2004 repeat, blatant loot of govt coffers to win further elections while completely derailaing any progress.
But for a couple of last minute alliances this disappointment could have become a tragedy.

Let's consolidate control over the next year or so and maybe in the second half of 2025 and beyond some bold decisions could be taken

[Cain Marko]

^^^

Given that there is zero claim of discrimination against the Quam in all the housing, gas connection, ration, mudra loan, health insurance etc., schemes, the BJP message could have been different, still raising the fear of loss, but not targeting anyone.

That is, when your policy does not discriminate against anyone, your campaign rhetoric should not target anyone when you raise the fear of loss.

100% very good point. BJP messaging didn't do them any favors.

[putnanja]

More and more I feel Hindu consolidation is just a day dream. Hindus are divided by nature and so going for such a strategy is a waste of time.

williams ji,


jihadis, along with dalits consolidated and voted tactically whereas the "ought to knoe better" Hindus voted their caste and wantonly fractured their own future

Do you realize what it takes to create a leader like Modiji ....

It is rare. It happens, perhaps once in a generation. It took Modiji decades of relentless work to become a PM candidate.


Ayodhya defeat: Hindus failed the nation despite having an 84.75% majority.

This result speaks volumes about the trustworthiness of Hindus.

Forget about Mathura and Kashi. enjoy your holidays, Hindus

True, too many imports of dubious nature crushed the loyal karyakarthas. Hindus were never consolidated and always had fault lines. The mughals, british, cong/sp/bsp all of them knew and exploited it. And they magnify it while trying to potray BJP as a polarising party with support from funds from abroad. It was a rare phenomenon in 2019 (2014 - UPA was scam ridden and people were tired of them). I had hoped Ayodhya temple would be a rallying factor, but that was not to be.

[williams]

More and more I feel Hindu consolidation is just a day dream. Hindus are divided by nature and so going for such a strategy is a waste of time.

williams ji,


jihadis, along with dalits consolidated and voted tactically whereas the "ought to knoe better" Hindus voted their caste and wantonly fractured their own future

Do you realize what it takes to create a leader like Modiji ....

It is rare. It happens, perhaps once in a generation. It took Modiji decades of relentless work to become a PM candidate.


Ayodhya defeat: Hindus failed the nation despite having an 84.75% majority.

This result speaks volumes about the trustworthiness of Hindus.

Forget about Mathura and Kashi. enjoy your holidays, Hindus

Exactly, you are not going to get a Namo again. I was hoping for good consolidation and a clear succession plan. I understand the positives, but this is a set back for the nation. We need to make all kind of compromises now to satisfy the coalition. On the top of it, people Sub Swamy will take their knifes out for revenge and start planning tea party events.

[AshishA]

As the day progressed I have to come to think that BJP (and we) actually got a lifeline and a second chance

The stars had aligned for a complete 2004 repeat, blatant loot of govt coffers to win further elections while completely derailaing any progress.
But for a couple of last minute alliances this disappointment could have become a tragedy.

Let's consolidate control over the next year or so and maybe in the second half of 2025 and beyond some bold decisions could be taken

I still feel it my bones that it was Lord Jagannath who saved the day today. Saffron lives to breathe another day cuz it lifted by Lord Jagannath. No one in their wildest dreams would have thought BJP will win 20 seats in Odisha and form govt by defeating Naveen. Rest assured, I am sure Saffron will survive and thrive in future.

My first vote as a voter in Odisha helped bring this change and helped in contributing in the cause of dharma.

[Prem Kumar]

- Poor booth management. Don't need RSS?
- Hubris. Arrogance. Why was Yogi Adityanath not seen in campaign? Don't we know the reasons?

Where is this coming from?

Yogi did campaign. And what's up with RSS pulling back? Its a stretch to think that Nadda's comment will make an entire organization cut off its nose to spite its face

[Prem Kumar]

The highest margin of victory in this election was Shivraj Singh Chouhan, by 8 lac. Maybe that's the kind of personality voters want - Modi without
the larger than life charisma. That is also the image the RSS would like its leaders to have.

I agree that arrogance/ego played a part in many goof-ups (including not agreeing to a seat-share with Uddhav, which would have retained the Shiv Sena alliance, hence sweeping Maharashtra)

But Modi is well loved precisely because he is charismatic. Shivraj Chouhan, though he is a tireless party worker, will not pull even 20% of the votes nationwide that a Modi will. Only a few have this charisma

[sanman]

Interesting take on results:



Voters don't give a damn about India's international stature. They just care about bread-&-butter issues like jobs at home.

Entering into "exclusive clubs" and being sought after for international mediation may be nice, but they won't get votes.

Personally, I think we should look at the kinds of apprenticeship programs done by Germany.
Those could be worthwhile investments.

[vimal]

-

[putnanja]

RSS was pretty active in Bangalore-Mysore region. Know few RSS folk who were working tirelessly. Near many booths, the party booths were manned by BJP/RSS women too! Not sure if there was any disconnect in MH/UP/RJ etc