2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[vimal]

^^ This proves that vikas gets you ghanta votes. Use saam, dand and bhed now. K

[RCase]

I personally feel that Modi ji was not ruthless to put away the opposition crooks. He let them play along and be a nice guy. For e.g. Yogi became popular with his bulldozer governance to root out the rough and tough. What stopped him to put away SG, RG, Mamta Banerjee, the Khalistanis and pseudo farmers, Shaheen Bagh scum etc. Damn the western media 'certification of Bharat and its democratic credentials.

[ernest]

BJP lost due to effective vote transfer among the opposition alliance. They got their caste arithmetic right this time, unlike in 2019, where BJP benefited.

Other factors like social media mood, economic situation/umemployment, farm law, agnipath/govt job situation, were also there but their impact was smaller.

And please stop with the conspiracy theories. Does not look good on BRF, especially when the govt is coming back.

Let's focus on the "wishlist for Modi3.0" thread.

[SBajwa]

Bengal should have had president rule long ago for violence and then again for Sandeshkhali. Same for many other states. BJP is very soft on states ruled by opposition while they easily moved around CMs. Why were Shivraj Chauhan and ML khattar relieved of CM post? Now that both have won MP seats they will be accommodated in center as ministers. I think BJP leadership is smartly defining the internal upward movement.

[A_Gupta]

If you know Hindi, this is as good an analysis of what went wrong.
हार जीत के कारणों का विश्लेषण क्या आरएसएस/बीजेपी खुद जिम्मेदार है
https://www.youtube.com/live/IAltWYhNuv ... E-F2PWRO4B

[vera_k]

The problem is that now all data needs to be reexamined for validity. The quality of information we were fed in the run up to the election was poor.

Underrated comment.

Data quality is poor overall. We know that the census did not take place. We know that the SRS bulletins have been delayed. There's also suspicion being reported in the WSJ that economic growth is overstated by understating inflation by about 2%.

At the same time, tying up with TDP and JDU ahead of the elections shows there was awareness of the possibility of the current outcome. That the BJP will be able to form a government after not performing to expectations in UP was unthinkable in the 90s, so this demonstrates that the footprint has expanded quite a bit.

[Cain Marko]

Not even in 2014 did Modi so openly attack the muslim community in his speeches as this time, that should have been a clue that it was going to be a very rocky road.

And, in doing so he undid all the work of the past 10 years and sealed bjp fate.

[Cain Marko]

^^ This proves that vikas gets you ghanta votes. Use saam, dand and bhed now. K

It worked in 2019. Modi should've stuck with the winning formula instead of getting into dirty politics. Cost them dearly.

Unfortunately they fell in love with their own hubris.

Even now there is great danger but it can be averted if Modi lets go of his seat.

[V_Raman]

If there are opposition tricks in toppling NaMo - IMO he will impose emergency...

[Cain Marko]

The danger is N². Can BJP rule with any confidence?

[Aditya_V]

There is always the danger, but if CBN is taken care off Nitish can do nothing. 10 years back after 2 UPA terms , special status for AP was not affordable, even CBN , Nitish know in a Govt with Udhav, NCP, DMK, TMC, SP plus INC, the pie will be very small.

Plus the INC base is still enemy of TDP base in AP

[ricky_v]

the results are going to be analysed to death, lets get started

final picture


odisha assembly


odisha change


andhra assembly


andhra change

[Mort Walker]

I'll wait for raw voting data to be released but wtf happened in up ?

I have a theory and was worried about it when exit polls came out ..

Muslims came out in massive numbers and voted en masse in up and other places.

I ll be surprised if bjp voting % went down.

I think the only state something weird happened was up. All other states performance naarmal onlee.

Vote share is on the ECI website for all 543 constituencies. https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJ ... /index.htm
BJP = 36.56%
INC = 21.19%

[vimal]

If Ram Mandir cannot sway you then nothing will

[ricky_v]

bjp lost 1 in gj, banaskantha
lost chandigarh to manish tewari by 2.5k
relatively poor show by nda overall in bihar, 29/40
lost goa south
lost 5 in haryana by >15k in all seats
manipur both seats to 2, state government is still neda

was always going to lose chuuru in rj, the inc winner used to be a popular sitting mp from bjp before he was unceremoniously dropped
cpi(m) won 1 seat of sikar in rj
omar abdullah lost by 2lakhs to an independent

[sanman]

If Ram Mandir cannot sway you then nothing will

Aam aadmi don't care -- they only worship their own stomachs.

Glandular people don't have convictions -- and usually aren't worth sticking your neck out for.

My suggestion is to do job creation for those who voted with values and convictions, and leave the rest to rot and ponder the wisdom of their choices.

[S_Madhukar]

1. IMO the opposition has won by default by 2 slogans - Pisslam in danger and Reservation in danger. This is going to haunt elections for the next decade or so.
2. I am going to disregard the help and $$ they received from global left (govt could have clamped down if they knew about it) . How is a convicted politician on bail running from Bangkok to London ? Did V-Dem give us extra points ? Why not file case after case and slow him down ? If SuSu says govt is not providing final evidence to nail him then it seems leadership wanted him around in the hope of an easy win.
3. Central leadership becoming overbearing - see UP and Maharashtra. Maha in particular was absolutely bad for Devendra Fadnavis. He is now left to fight zombies of UBT and Baramati who should have been buried by now. All the Mumbai/Bolly police drama not withstanding no convictions on SS Rajput case by NIA. Made the whole thing look like circus. How can you treat a state like Maha who is generally very patriotic like this ? If Chanakya had a grand strategy that was not visible to common public - opposition should have been denuded ! This indicates casual approach.
4. Ram mandir was a 90s issue and not relevant today. It is a good to have (society is younger and more materialistic now) not necessity. Again aam janta does not understand Hindutva it seems. Check this for future temple projects!
5. ECI summer dates etc is a fair comment but how active were booth workers. In my parents Mumbai North constituency in some corners BJP workers provided free autorickshaw to senior citizens to the nearest poll booth and back (BJP has always been visible here thanks to lots of Gujju pop). Also how did MP, Orissa etc do well ? Are UP people more callous and if so how come a northern party did not understand? How will you penetrate South with such analysis ?
6. I would not take this as a good win (optics is nice) - this was a disaster in the making if pAAP was stronger. If u know Sorrows has kept $1B to take you down, did you roll up your sleeves to strategise better ? Frankly shatrubodh missing big time, they probably would have to spend similar amount for media and analytics. I am not a big fan of lefty ideas but Sorrows connections will help opposition with cultural and psychological analytics - goras know our makeup better - so may be next time dont be shy of using such aids

[Rupesh]

If Ram Mandir cannot sway you then nothing will

It's due to Ram Mandir that BJP even managed to stay in power, else it would have been a repeat of 2004. Without hindutva, even the core voter will move away. BJP now needs to deal with trouble makers with a iron hand, give some tax relief to middle class and reduce freebies like free homes. A ten lakh rupees home will not get the votes, but a DBT for 10k will get votes. Stop pampering farmers and instead focus on traders and urban folks.

[sanman]

It's due to Ram Mandir that BJP even managed to stay in power, else it would have been a repeat of 2004. Without hindutva, even the core voter will move away. BJP now needs to deal with trouble makers with a iron hand, give some tax relief to middle class and reduce freebies like free homes. A ten lakh rupees home will not get the votes, but a DBT for 10k will get votes. Stop pampering farmers and instead focus on traders and urban folks.

Now the Ram bhakts need to be hauled up and asked why they didn't get more people to vote for the party that got them their mandir.
Were they just wanting to sit with hands folded basking in divine glow while leaving real world matters to chance?
Sure they were.

There's that well known saying, "The Lord Helps Those Who Help Themselves" --- apparently the Ram bhakts never heard of that, and decided to sit on their hands and twiddle their thumbs. Now Ayodhya is in the hands of peacefuls and their Samajwadi stooges.

[Dumal]

BJP lost due to effective vote transfer among the opposition alliance. They got their caste arithmetic right this time, unlike in 2019, where BJP benefited.

Other factors like social media mood, economic situation/umemployment, farm law, agnipath/govt job situation, were also there but their impact was smaller.

And please stop with the conspiracy theories. Does not look good on BRF, especially when the govt is coming back.

Let's focus on the "wishlist for Modi3.0" thread.

Agree with this 100%. We seem to forget all major surprise turnarounds in the last 10 years, starting with Bihar in Oct 2014 has been due to effective vote transfers or vote splits. This time the BSP factor in UP, the NCP's divide & conquer strategy in Mah, the split due to AIADMK standing alone in TN, etc were instrumental. All other factors are just maya that we tend to wrap ourselves in all the time.

[Ambar]

If Ram Mandir cannot sway you then nothing will

It's due to Ram Mandir that BJP even managed to stay in power, else it would have been a repeat of 2004. Without hindutva, even the core voter will move away. BJP now needs to deal with trouble makers with a iron hand, give some tax relief to middle class and reduce freebies like free homes. A ten lakh rupees home will not get the votes, but a DBT for 10k will get votes. Stop pampering farmers and instead focus on traders and urban folks.

With someone like Nirmala Sitaraman who does not lose any opportunity to come across as arrogant and insensivite i doubt they'll loosen the purse strings for the taxpaying middleclass even if this coalition stands.

Was talking to someone from Amethi, he said only a non-UP person would be surprised by margin of Smriti Irani's defeat. Her win in 2019 was a fluke, and her absence in the constituency, her celebrity status and coming across as a urban person in what is a poor constituency all worked massively against her. The other is the Priyanka Gandhi factor, she did in UP what BJP did in 2014, i.e. reach out at the grassroot level in every town and village in person. She campaigned hard in Amethi too where as Smriti Irani was content running electronic campaigning.

Modi and Shah are not naive, they would have the reports before hand that it was going to be a difficult election. Bringing in over 130 external candidtes was probably their way of blunting the anti-incumbency wave, but it backfired. Odisha miraculously came through else we would be looking at 2004 redux because the constituency result map looks identical.

[OmkarC]

There are lessons to be learnt, careful introspection would be underway for the next few months. Some random data points that stood out for me:

Sweet
====
BJP winning 20/21 LS seats in Orissa, Clean sweeps of MP, Delhi, Arunachal, UK, HP.
Full majority in Orissa, both APs, Sikkim for NDA.

Nice
====
NDA coming back to power, at least JDU & TDP/Jana Sena have given no indications of deserting the mother ship.
From TG - two candidates that tried DMK style politics abusing Hindu Gods & rituals, lost badly. Notably, two of Owaisi's business partners contesting on congress tickets lost to BJP candidates w/ huge margins.

Bad
====
Smriti Irani, Annamalai losses.
Sandeshkali seems to have no influence on Bengal polls.
Losing both seats of Manipur.

Morbid
====
Victories of Khalistani Amritpal & Jihadi Abdul Rashid from Kashmir - Amritpal seems to have won w/ a larger majority on his seat than even NaMo
Losing Ayodhya parliamentary seat.

[Aditya_V]

Looking at the Map, Maharashtra is drought factor, UP is probably Complacency and some rumor Mongering. But BJP NDA forming Govt with only 34 seats in UP is a huge suprise.

Some changes are required, in TN it is post Jayalalitha's death - Jayakumar and the rest of E AIDMK can keep attacking BJP, but if they dont win in 2026- which I think Stalin will win , the AIDMK party cadre will ask for change.

Yes , I think some changes in more economic focus rather than cultural aspects are required for this term.

[KL Dubey]

There is a complex range of factors that determine the exact numbers in such a huge election. The BJP/NDA will need to do a deep assessment and work on multiple things.

Broadly, the fact that Modi has done a superb job in his second term is the one and only reason that NDA got a majority again. People saying that development, mandir, welfare schemes, big ticket laws, 370, etc don't matter are not being realistic. Without these things, NDA wouldn't even be at 200.

Also the allies had sufficient BJP voter support to win a decent number of seats. Even in AP, the increasing popularity of Modi allowed TDP and JSP to surge beyond a split verdict.

More granularly, we can say that the lower majority is a mix of a few key state-related issues.

1. In UP, Nadda's leadership style and substance, as well as poor use of the RSS machinery, seems the cause of low seats.
2. In RJ, I think Raje has played Jaichand in the VS election aftermath. It wont work again.
3. In MH, things are still in flux after all the party realignments. A steady hand at the wheel and a win in the upcoming VS election would smooth things out and settle the Charade Pawar/Thakre questions. For now these clowns may have got a life extension on the ventilator.
4. In HR, it seems that dissatisfaction with Khattar (who actually did a good job) could not be mollified in time by replacement with Saini.
5. In WB, again MoMo seems to have again won by intimidation and using the demographics.

The last 4 state issues above were arguably hard to control, but the UP outcome should really not have happened and could have been avoided.

[Jay]

I do not think the opposition gained too many votes based on freebies and reservations. Personally, I think BJP lost the vote based on three factors

1. Alienated RSS cadre. They have apparently come to believe that Modi-Shah do not view them as partners anymore, but merely a subset who will always vote for BJP no matter what and someone who can be pacified with Mandir's. I think BJP failed to realize that RSS seeks an active stake holder role in the formation of policies. I think this one move kept RSS affiliates to sit out and not expend their energies.

2. Consolidation of Muslim vote strategically. Unlike previous years where the Muslim vote was split between Congress, and various other UPA/INDI alliance parties, this time there was a serious effort for the past 4 years to focus the muslim vote on the best available option which will defeat BJP. A lot of Muslim vote in AP shifted to SP this time unlike last time where some of it went to Congress and others. This was a phenomenon that was repeated across the country. Case in point was when Owaisi campaigned against BJP in WB and other muslim constituencies urging them to not waste their vote on congress.

3. BJP's Modi-Shah leadership faced similar public sentiment as TRS/BRS leader KCR and his ilk. Even though KCR was good for Telangana, there was a public perception that he was getting too big for his britches and there was widespread vote against him and his governance against his "diktat" way of governance. I feel something similar happened here.

Frankly, I'm a little relieved that this was not a repeat of 2004, even though BJP came close. Honestly, if BJP plays its cards right, it will be back with 272+ in 2029 with the only wild card being Modi or someone taking his place.

[shaun]

1st and foremost census should be completed by this year end . I am sure it will throw surprises . Even change in 1% vote share can change results.

Caste and freebies algorithm have its limitations . For example Freebies can't guarantee you seats . In WB it's freebies although corruption is at its highest , deciding factor being the minority votes ( why census data is required) while in KA , routing of opposition by the congress govt in vidhan sabha with freebies did not convert it to seats in substantial number the way we can see in WB .
In a way exit polls almost reflected the sentiments of voters ,with such a fragmented political scenario , very difficult to predict on sample surveys only . At best it can give a general trend . UP itself threw spanner on exit polls . Need deep analysis . Caste , agniveer not the deciding factors , oppositions better seat management and traditional voters of bjp MIA , example for Faizabad ( Ayodha ) turnout was 59.14 % where Minority as per census 12 years back was approx 15% . That's why you will find many closely contested seats on both side and by next election bjp will loose the seat they have retained now. In this election, Did bjp won a single seat in UP which they bested from opposition, I think none .

[uddu]

This is just the consolidation of Anti-BJP votes and some Complacency on the part of BJP cadres and voters in U.P believing the 400 paar slogan. BJP must have added a caveat to the Slogan that If you don't go and vote, there is no 300 Paar. Along with that Certain percentage will be for freebies. This will be corrected in the next election by the people themselves. It is normal that at times complacency on the part of people do happen. Also it may be a message that its time to elevate Yogi and his style of governance at the Central level. Mostly when the likes of Mulayam Singh are elevated as Holy by the govt themselves, why should people keep his son, away from power. Modi govt should shed this appeasement politics completely. Give only for those who rightly deserve such awards.

[Srutayus]

Consolidation of Muslim vote strategically. Unlike previous years where the Muslim vote was split between Congress, and various other UPA/INDI alliance parties, this time there was a serious effort for the past 4 years to focus the muslim vote on the best available option which will defeat BJP. A lot of Muslim vote in AP shifted to SP this time unlike last time where some of it went to Congress and others. This was a phenomenon that was repeated across the country. Case in point was when Owaisi campaigned against BJP in WB and other muslim constituencies urging them to not waste their vote on congress.

One interesting thing for me was that 100% strategic Muslim consolidation was insufficient to keep the BJP out of power.
In hindsight, combine this with the the 3rd year anti incumbency which has proven to be fatal to most popular governments in the past, something which we thought Modiji was impervious to. And the fact that this was an election which the family run parties had to win in do or die mode. In all possibility the last good performance for most of them

[uddu]

With someone like Nirmala Sitaraman who does not lose any opportunity to come across as arrogant and insensitive i doubt they'll loosen the purse strings for the taxpaying middleclass even if this coalition stands.

Those who has observed her will know that she is the most politest of ministers in Modi cabinet. The way she talks, makes it feels that she is rude, though she is well aware of it and tries to slow down her response and explains things in detail. This is the person who even covered her mouth when everyone was laughing at the Shurpanka joke. Well mannerd person. Purse string holding is whats keeping the Economy in good condition. Also the decision to widen the tax net by removing the exemption to Crorepati Agriculturists not paying taxes and at the same time reducing the burden of tax on the middle class should come from the PM himself. If he is not interested in taking such a decision, how can you blame her.
Same with taxes on Petrol and diesel. The amount of taxes is more than the amount of product. Again the PM is well aware of the burden that this creates on everything from industries to commoners. Nothing was done about it.

[Pratyush]

The thing to do now is to perform a rigorous analysis of what really happened on the ground. Learn the right lessons and buckle up for a fight to the finish in 2027 up assembly elections. Or else India will never be able to develop.

Perform a 360 HR evaluation of the leadership in the party. Get rid of NPAs.

Be extremely ruthless in dealing with kejriwal and co. They need to be finished off in the next 12 to 18 months. Or else, this is going to be a serious problem.

Tell the state chief ministers. That you need to bring industries to your states. In order to increase the incomes of different strata of people.

Get cracking, their is no time to lose.

[AshishA]

BJP needs to solve the successor problem now. Modi can't carry the ship forever. He needs to groom a successor now.

[OmkarC]

@Pratyush yes, we need credible data driven analysis and not mere arm chair speculation to whip up hype because some folks have an inherent fanboy mindset and find it hard to reconcile multiple conflicting data poitns. We need less of the smarmy Jaypuer DG fella and his numerous arm chair experts, more of pragmatic realists.

Even now someone above was attributing the AP victory of TDP/JS to the "Modi factor" which is perhaps ludicrous to put it mildly. Hope the "right lessons" do not come from such people.

[Ambar]

That person is known to make outrageous claims every election by quoting random youtubewallahs, nothing new. That said, the lessons learnt will soon be tested when Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra go to polls in October. Modi should sit back and let the BJP leaders in those states manage strategy and campaigning themselves.

[KL Dubey]

One interesting thing for me was that 100% strategic Muslim consolidation was insufficient to keep the BJP out of power.
In hindsight, combine this with the the 3rd year anti incumbency which has proven to be fatal to most popular governments in the past, something which we thought Modiji was impervious to. And the fact that this was an election which the family run parties had to win in do or die mode. In all possibility the last good performance for most of them

Yes, the "M+Y" or other "M+ABC" combo just doesn't have the same impact now (or doesn't work at all).

As I described before, the "M" vote is a captive (literally) votebank controlled by a small elite (including clergy and goons), the so-called "imaan" of voting only for a specified party is nothing but a duty enjoined by this mafia-like set-up. Instead of berating Hindus, or even the average guy on the street, what is needed is to dismantle this system and remove the powers/instruments of control that are enjoyed by these elite.

Indeed, it was "do or die" for the INDI. They have failed. I doubt Modi will slow down in decimating these fellows electorally as well as with anti-corruption drive.

[Arima]

BJP needs to solve the successor problem now. Modi can't carry the ship forever. He needs to groom a successor now.

+1
RSS and BJP need to identify the next and groom, who can take Hindutva to next stage

[V_Raman]

AP historically has played a pivotal role in true Indic awakening. This term is such an opportunity again for TDP to play that role in supporting NDA for the full term.

[KL Dubey]

@Pratyush yes, we need credible data driven analysis and not mere arm chair speculation to whip up hype because some folks have an inherent fanboy mindset and find it hard to reconcile multiple conflicting data poitns. We need less of the smarmy Jaypuer DG fella and his numerous arm chair experts, more of pragmatic realists.

Even now someone above was attributing the AP victory of TDP/JS to the "Modi factor" which is perhaps ludicrous to put it mildly. Hope the "right lessons" do not come from such people.

Yes, it did contribute. These fellows were running to Delhi every other day to get the BJP on board. Those extra few % of Modi votes counted. Obviously, it seems to escape you that NDA will be at 273 even after deducting all 20 AP seats.

There is no more credible analysis available to the public anywhere other than the media. So, who are these "pragmatic realists" you are talking about. My predictions/estimates were conservative at 330 BJP/380 NDA, which was in line with all other "realists". Do you want to be as "pragmatic" as Yogendra Yadav? Be my guest!

PS: Back in Dec 2023 we had a discussion on TG assembly results, I advised you to be patient instead of showing too much "pragmatic realism". You can see the result in TG today. Sometimes things have to get worse in order to get better. I support Modi and Shah because of their dedication and decades of work among the people of Bharat. Discussions on BRF occur all the time, nothing comes of it.

[KL Dubey]

That person is known to make outrageous claims every election by quoting random youtubewallahs, nothing new. That said, the lessons learnt will soon be tested when Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra go to polls in October. Modi should sit back and let the BJP leaders in those states manage strategy and campaigning themselves.

Looks like some people reappear after bans, when there is scope for regurgitating the same tired old rants. Summer is here already, the power cuts should be coming soon ?

[RCase]

I think BJP should give the outreach to the M's a pass. If they are going to vote en-bloc, come down with policies that will give it back to them en-bloc. If they claim to be डरे हुए then let it be manifested! We need a mindset change for these people to stop voting based only on religion. Enough of appeasement.

Similarly, I hope the reservation quota takes into consideration economic basis and one generation upliftment/benefits and not caste by birth.

[Pratyush]

There is no love without fear. These people claim to be afraid. But that is only to extract concessions from the others.