2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[Deans]

Unless one understands the problem, a solution cannot be found.

In the Core BJP areas (North and West) fewer % of Hindus voted for the BJP this time compared to 2019.
The only exception was MP.
This had nothing to do with Muslim consolidation (which was already very high), or lower turnout (affected non BJP seats,
but was insignificant in BJP held seats).
The BJP outspent its opponents and gave away more freebies (free food under PMJKAY is the mother of all freebie schemes), so we
shouldn't be whining about freebies, Soros etc.

Possible reasons:
1. BJP got in outsiders and turncoats, some with a dubious reputation. Almost all lost. What I find hard to digest is that the BJP is a large
cadre based party. which should not be taking in outsiders and if they do, should at least be ideologically sound.
Was there no alternative to outsiders/defectors ? How many deserving MLA's were promoted and given tickets ?

2. Related to this, voters don't take kindly to BJP breaking up parties or alliances. Not sticking with the original NDA partners (who were
also your only ideological partners) in Mah and Punjab, cost 25 seats.

3. I look at economic data regularly. There is real rural distress and distress in the MSME sector. These have not even got back to pre covid levels.
I wrote a blog post on imports from China because it pained me to see that our MSME owners prefer to be traders of Chinese goods. The govt
prefers to massage the data to give the impression all is fine. Rising stock markets and more airports benefit the 2.5 % (actual) of the population
who own stock or fly. For the poorest 20% of India, incomes are BELOW 2016-7 levels.

Consider 1 scheme in UP:
For MGRNEGA, the wage increase last year was Rs 18 /day on average across India, but only Rs 7 in UP.
The number of days a person actually worked in UP last year (against 100 days promised) was 21. (42 days avg in India).
That's because the budget for MGRNEGA, which was the only job many people post covid had, was HALVED.
In 2022-23, less than 25% of those who got the free gas connection in UP were able to buy subsidized gas, because they could not
afford it.

If the govt believes its data that unemployment in UP has halved to 2.6%, I'd like to have what they are smoking.
Above figures are from the govt website.

[syam]

The reason might be simple as just luck. Even opposition is not sure how they won those seats.
Cuz they won in KA and TG Assembly elections, but couldn't replicate it in General Elections. This is not some congress master strategy winning the election.

We need to look into the data phase wise and how UP fared in each phase. We might find some pattern in that.

[Amber G.]

Why BJP Lost In Ayodhya Despite Ram Janmabhoomi Temple - Swarajya Article

[KL Dubey]

"Deans" -

^^Interesting insights. What was the MNREGA and rural distress situation in Bihar and MP, where NDA did well ? Similar to Eastern UP or much better ? Providing the context would be more convincing. To me, the wipeout in Eastern UP is because of poor election management. Surrounding areas of BH, MP, CH, etc voted quite solidly for NDA.

I agree in general about taking in outsiders, and "breaking parties", but this has to be done at some point and it will/may have a short-term consequence to bear. Seems the same thing in RJ - the BJP finally kicked the Raje habit and she seems to have undermined the party this time. You can refute my hypothesis if you like.

In MH, Charade seems to have hatched the scheme to destabilize a solid NDA and made the gullible Thakre set in motion these events. At some point you have to deal with this. The other option was to just settle in for long haul and let the "MVA" have a field day with their combined vote share.

Again, one has to consider both sides of the coin. Is it not possible that if NCP and SS were left intact, the NDA would have less than 10 seats in LS 2024?

[Sicanta]

Why BJP Lost In Ayodhya Despite Ram Janmabhoomi Temple

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/what-w ... in-ayodhya

[Deans]

In the context of my previous post:

There is no country where, post covid, the incumbent govt has been voted back with a higher majority.
We had the worst fall in GDP in 2020-21 compared to the rest of the G-20 or our neighbors.
That's possibly because when trying to find a balance between saving lives and livelihood we ended up hurting both.
The govt should have realized that and take corrective action to a far greater extent. The biggest scheme was extending free food grains,
but it came at the expense of MGNREGA budgets, or reviving MSME's to create jobs.

The only face of the govt during Covid was the PM. I've never once heard an admission that we got several things wrong in our management of
Covid, which resulted in millions of job losses. For e.g. Construction work where workers live on site (hence can't be infected), could have
continued, instead of stopping it and making lacs of migrants jobless and walk back home. (I've posted on this at the time of covid too).
That's past. My point is the govt needed to mitigate the job losses and loss of income from covid. Instead, the messaging people in rural areas
were seeing was how we are leading G-20, building more IIT/IIM, new airports etc. Modiji ki guarantee would be a sick joke if you can't get work under MGNREGA, or your MSME has gone under (16% of all MSME were so badly gone that they could not repay the first installment of their loan
from the govt) while some promoters are adding more billions to their billions.
The warning signs were there in the WB, Karnataka and Himachal elections.

I'm as much a Modi fan as anyone else and its not easy to say this. In the aftermath of Covid, I would have liked to see a kinder, gentler PM (like
the demeanor of Shivraj Singh or Harshvardhan) saying `We were hit by an unprecedented catastrophe, I want to work with all parties and
the people to ensure we recover'. Party workers should have got the message that its going to be difficult to get to 272 because of the covid
effect. The attitude at the top seemed to be that we are shining. Just after Covid instead of projecting an image of unity, BJP lost SS as an ally,
after earlier losing SAD.

[KL Dubey]

^^For a moment I thought we could have an informed discussion. But this above post again indicates to me that people are still in the venting stage, there is not much of logical substance to help separate the grain from the chaff. Unfortunately, phaltu ki baatein (or "hai hai")....nothing will come of it.

According to you its BJP's fault to "lose" SS and SAD, when the events are clearly opposite. The sooner these guys left, the better.

During Covid, the sarkar was literally in every citizen's home, whether it was the health monitoring app, the daily updates, deliveries, the aid provided, the vaccine rollouts. I don't think there is any bitterness among the population for Modi's handling of Covid and its aftermath. Yes, there was a brief period of anger in Apr-May 2021 during the second wave especially in UP. But not after.

How do you expect the sarkar to raise money to subsidize rural incomes without bringing in investment, construction/infrastructure (which brings semi/skilled jobs in plenty)? That top 5% of the Indian middle/upper class utilizing higher-end services is paying the taxes...!! This seems to fall into the western media narrative trap that keeps harping on the "Modi isn't creating jobs" theme.

[Deans]

"Deans" -

^^Interesting insights. What was the MNREGA and rural distress situation in Bihar and MP, where NDA did well ? Similar to Eastern UP or much better ? Providing the context would be more convincing. To me, the wipeout in Eastern UP is because of poor election management. Surrounding areas of BH, MP, CH, etc voted quite solidly for NDA.

I agree in general about taking in outsiders, and "breaking parties", but this has to be done at some point and it will/may have a short-term consequence to bear. Seems the same thing in RJ - the BJP finally kicked the Raje habit and she seems to have undermined the party this time. You can refute my hypothesis if you like.

In MH, Charade seems to have hatched the scheme to destabilize a solid NDA and made the gullible Thakre set in motion these events. At some point you have to deal with this. The other option was to just settle in for long haul and let the "MVA" have a field day with their combined vote share.

Again, one has to consider both sides of the coin. Is it not possible that if NCP and SS were left intact, the NDA would have less than 10 seats in LS 2024?

Dubeyji, I have to do a deep dive into data, but my first thoughts:

In RAJ & CG assembly elections, covid distress cost the ruling party in that state. MP held, partly because the Cong govt had fallen before that
and because (my impression) Shivraj Singh was doing a good job, (meeting reduced expectations).
In UP, Raj and Haryana this time the BJP was ruling in the state. In Bihar it was perceived to be a MGB govt.
Again, MP held its vote share, which is why I keep bringing it up. If Modi lets Shivraj fade into obscurity at the Centre, it will answer my
hypothesis about Modiji.

MP's GDP in 2022-23 grew more than UP (7.1 vs. 5.8%). India was 7%.

I agree that without splitting SS and NCP, the BJP would have got fewer seats in MAH (not more than 5). My point is why lose the SS in the first
place. Fadnavis was a nobody selected by the BJP, they should not have lost their closest ally because wanted to serve a full term as CM.

[AshishA]

A important point to drive home. Putting Kejriwal in Jail had no effect on how many seats Delhi gave to BJP.

Hence, please continue with the ED, CBI raids.

[KL Dubey]

It is true that most state goremints flipped in the nine 2023 VS elections (from Feb to Dec). But there is very little to establish a connection between that and Covid distress. Correlation is not evidence of causation.

By that metric, the VS 2022 in UP - which should have been highly impacted by Covid distress - would have been a disaster for BJP. But Yogi came back again with a big majority (albeit not 300). And that was very little to do with Covid, it was mainly due to political churn, such as SBSP/Rajbhar colluding with SP.

RJ continued its tradition of flipping goremints every 5 years. In CG, the BJP win was based on the promise to bring development (which is not directly related to covid!) and to wipe out Maoism/naxalism.

[OmkarC]

AP historically has played a pivotal role in true Indic awakening. This term is such an opportunity again for TDP to play that role in supporting NDA for the full term.

Please dont get your hopes up. TDP does not want to be seen or identified as pro-Hindutva party. For one, they have said they are only allying w/ BJP for state's interest, they repeatedly claim their "secular" credentials and have even promised Muslim reservations just like other "seculars". They will extract various concessions including both special status & special package, various industrial corridors w/ long term tax breaks, blank cheque for new capital city and increase of assembly/Lok Sabha seats during delimitation ... to start with. The most pro-hindu act that we could expect would be removing all non-Hindus from the TTD board, not through negotiations of BJP, but happening inadvertently by having their own ppl control the board. This situation would be similar to what AB Vajpayee had to face w/ CBN. Frankly, it's even worse than at that time - most of the BJP folks who got elected now are either open or closet TDP coverts, some were given party tickets only to appease TDP despite actively funding Congress in other states against BJP, including in Gujarat.

The astrologer PVRNarasimha Rao roughly predicted that Modi will get back to power w/ a performance that's worse than 2019. He predicts Modi will take sanyasa after he turns 75. I think managing a coalition govt w/ folks like CBN & Nitish may certainly motivate him to hurry up.

[Deans]

^^For a moment I thought we could have an informed discussion. But this above post again indicates to me that people are still in the venting stage, there is not much of logical substance to help separate the grain from the chaff. Unfortunately, phaltu ki baatein (or "hai hai")....nothing will come of it.

According to you its BJP's fault to "lose" SS and SAD, when the events are clearly opposite. The sooner these guys left, the better.

During Covid, the sarkar was literally in every citizen's home, whether it was the health monitoring app, the daily updates, deliveries, the aid provided, the vaccine rollouts. I don't think there is any bitterness among the population for Modi's handling of Covid and its aftermath. Yes, there was a brief period of anger in Apr-May 2021 during the second wave especially in UP. But not after.

How do you expect the sarkar to raise money to subsidize rural incomes without bringing in investment, construction/infrastructure (which brings semi/skilled jobs in plenty)? That top 5% of the Indian middle/upper class utilizing higher-end services is paying the taxes...!! This seems to fall into the western media narrative trap that keeps harping on the "Modi isn't creating jobs" theme.

Dubeyji, I'm trying to look at reasons, supported by what data I've seen, that go beyond what I'm hearing here, which is:
Muslims are united, Hindus are ungrateful & divided, turnout was too low, EVM's were hacked by an unknown force, Soros etc.

Of course there were many reasons, including election management, complacency, candidate selection that are unrelated to the economy.
I don't know to what extent each contributed, none of us will.
Could anyone else have handled the economy better ? I don't believe so, but that's moot.

I'm saying the same thing you are - Construction jobs fell during and after covid. MSME's which hire a lot of local unskilled labor also lost jobs.
We don't know how many because the MSME portal is deceptive. A lot of companies after covid were asked to register on the portal, so it shows
a surge in employment, which is really unregistered workers being listed on the portal. Informal surveys point to serious job losses.

We might have generated more resources if the IT dept had succeeded in the cases filed for black money after DeMo. It was negligible, any
IT growth was because the economy grew. I had expected a min of 100,000 Cr from taxes on undisclosed black money. How much was collected ?
We don't know, because the portal was not updated after May 2018 and I think even the data on black money identified was removed.
Similarly, the govt's own estimate for privitization of PSU's fell short by 100,000 cr (at a time when capital markets are booming).

Unpaid MGNREGA wages last year were 11,000 cr. There was also a shortfall of 20,000 cr between when was needed and the budget.

[Pratyush]

The analysis has to be much more focused on the 30 seats in UP.

If, it was just the rumour mongering about reservations. Then this is the 2nd time in the last 9 years where this specific lie has hurt the BJP's performance. A way has to be found to neutralise it by 2027. Or it will cost UP.

Second, focus on full scale industrial development of states that are under the NDA fold.

Tell them to handle agriculture as they see fit. Central government should take a hands off approach.

[KL Dubey]

The astrologer PVRNarasimha Rao roughly predicted that Modi will get back to power w/ a performance that's worse than 2019.

Ahhhh!!! So there's your pragmatic realist that backs his prediction with real data and ground reports.

[syam]

I tried to compile the data available so far..

Phase 1 - Outta 8, BJP won only 1. That one seat is Nepal border area.
Phase 2 - Outta 8, BJP won 7. These are bordered with Haryana and Delhi. Supposed to be effected by Farm laws. Isn't supposed to be Rajput area?
Phase 3 - Outta 10, BJP won 4. Lost more than half here.
Phase 4 - Outta 13, BJP won 8. Almost won another seat. So we can say it performed good in 9 seats in this phase.
Phase 5 - Outta 14, BJP won only 4. They lost another seat by low margin in this phase too.
Phase 6 - Outta 14, BJP won only 3. One seat is near to Nepal again.
Phase 7, Outta 13, BJP won 6. Lost a seat with low margin. So 7 outta 13. Apna Dal also won 1 seat. So not bad.

Almost all seats that bordered with Nepal were won by BJP.

It lost only 3 seats by close margin to SaPa. Rest of the seats are clear losses. It failed in more than 40 seats this time.

1,3, 5 and 6 phases are where BJP lost most of the seats. We need the local data and the candidates info to further breakdown these 4 phases seats. Demographics also very important. Saleem Yadav might have published something on this. Not motivated enough to read his papers.

[SRajesh]

Deansji and Dubeyji
I agree there were issues going into this elections, but I am not certain that SS and SAD break was the reason. SS and SAD had reached CBN (of Vajpayeeji time state) trying to hold BJP to ransom. SS was remote run by Raut and others plus Onion merchants were heavily involved and those connections had to be cut.
Post COVID farmer distress and rural distress with Agniveer being perceived as another blow to the rural economy.
The Hubris, and moving certain figures out (even though SSC case did not affect MP) felt at grass roots level a feeling of High Command Party not a Cadre based one.
Whether we like it not all is not well with RSS and BJP
Lets what major decision gets done in first 100 days!

[A_Gupta]

The talk of rural distress brings me to this about panchayat elections in UP, 2021.
https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... n-7303566/

I imagine panchayat members (if listened to) are a party's ears on the ground. Maybe some of this is relevant.

[OmkarC]

The analysis has to be much more focused on the 30 seats in UP.

If, it was just the rumour mongering about reservations. Then this is the 2nd time in the last 9 years where this specific lie has hurt the BJP's performance. A way has to be found to neutralise it by 2027. Or it will cost UP.

Second, focus on full scale industrial development of states that are under the NDA fold.

Tell them to handle agriculture as they see fit. Central government should take a hands off approach.

The morphed video of Amit Shah targeting reservations originated from TG. Surprisingly it seemed to have effected UP more than its place of origin.

[KL Dubey]

Unpaid MGNREGA wages last year were 11,000 cr. There was also a shortfall of 20,000 cr between when was needed and the budget.

We are getting into the weeds here...but that's about Rs 1000 per head over a total period of 3 years. Given that MNREGA was a key Covid impact mitigation tool, and that many workers were not digital-enabled, this is not hugely surprising. But again, once the economy recovered workers went right back to work (construction, etc) earning much more than that. I very much doubt the population is bitter about this to vote out BJP from their constituencies. Ultimately MNREGA needs to be wound up (along with things like the Rs 2 rice etc)...this can't go on forever.

At this point, instead of these discussions, the better approach is to just take Yogendra Yadav's rationale, since he has got the prediction right.

I believe the BJP will arrive at the root causes with all the information/data and human resource it has. Knowing Modi, corrective actions will come and that way we can find out what went wrong in the first place.

[SRajesh]

The Hindi heartland is still the key to 2029.
The governments in RJ/MP/UP/CG/BH/JHK.
Could the first act be on Census and redrawing of constituencies??
Gives five years to work on the populace and prepare the ground

[vimal]

This must be the first election where winner is crying and loser is celebrating.

Modi has to deliver on time, every time. Congress and SP just need to wait around doing nothing, eventually caste will make them win.

[OmkarC]

The Hindi heartland is still the key to 2029.
The governments in RJ/MP/UP/CG/BH/JHK.
Could the first act be on Census and redrawing of constituencies??
Gives five years to work on the populace and prepare the ground

Census --> NRC --> delimitation was the logical sequence of events. Now, it could be Census --> delimitation influenced by regional players, as NRC may not be accepted by them. Accommodating exceptions for increasing assembly/Lok Sabha representation for Andhra & Bihar at the expense of others may be on the cards.

[SRajesh]

Now that Ms Moitra back, can we expect renewed attacks on Adani and Ambani groups??
or was just a election ploy

[syam]

Also I checked 2022 state elections. SaPa had significant presence in the areas it won comfortably in present elections.

It's written on wall. Ayodhya temple happened after that. I think the problem started way before 2022. May be Covid gave the boost for SaPa factions? We had millions of UP labour stranded on roads. May be they did something good to them at the time. Or demonized Modiji enough to create negative perception on Modiji.

As for Ram Mandir, we have to look at the Shankaracharya's statements too. They created a perception that Ram Mandir is nothing to do with Hindus at large. It was just political ploy used by BJP to fool Hindus? We have to look into social media campaign by Cong+ at that time to analyze it further.

One thing becoming very clear to me at least. This shock and awe development is not exactly shock and awe development. Cong+ worked for more than 4 years to achieve this outcome.

Opposition put so much effort. While BJP people didn't even bother with countering basic things in media.

BJP needs internal clean up. They have to start with Nadda first. Remove him from the scene. He might pitch TDP alliance as his achievement. Shah shouldn't fall for that. We might loose everything if we don't do shake up from top to bottom.

Clean up the social media branch. Also provide good legal support for pro-BJP side people. And shamelessly poach talented BJP supporters from general public. Provide money support if needed.

[chetak]

The Hindi heartland is still the key to 2029.
The governments in RJ/MP/UP/CG/BH/JHK.
Could the first act be on Census and redrawing of constituencies??
Gives five years to work on the populace and prepare the ground

SRajesh ji,


The space for the nationalistic paltan to do that has shunk considerably.

the BIF has breached the dharmic fortress and their assertive minions are openly in a commanding and demanding position, just like they were during the mamamia mafia NAC times, and will use the same five years to prepare their narrative and make sure that their agenda takes root

The commies are back on the bus and are eyeing the driver's seat and the happy hunting grounds for everyone and his puncturewalla uncle is and always was the the hindi heartland and this is where the BJP has continually messed up by ignoring and marginalizing Yogiji and now there will be a reckoning and a blowback from within

[SRajesh]

Chetakji
retaining the key states before 2029 is the most important don't you think!!
Bihar to start with and work up
Given the results Susashanbabu could still be face of election there you think
I don't think BJP would be foolish enough to snap ties or move him to greener pastures so to speak!!

[williams]

Modi govt did do a lot of good things. But people get disappointed when high expectations are not met quickly. Question is will such disappointments cause people to vote Modi out. To get an understanding of this, we need to look at our electorate. I usually break them down into 5 categories.

1. The Secularist crowd. - These are the people who always see Modi in a negative lens. They are the JNU/NDTV types. No matter what reforms he brings, they will cite a hidden agenda or find fault in it. These people are always going to vote against Modi leadership. My estimate of this crowd is about 20% of the electorate.

2. The Regionalist crowd. - These are people who only think about their state or region or religion or caste. They don't care about parties they will blindly vote for their regional agenda. This part of the electorate is always volatile and we will never know how they will lean in any election. I would put another 10-20% of people in this category.

3. The Nationalist crowd. - These are the people who think about pure national interest and I think they are guaranteed to vote for Modi. They are not going to accept a congress or any other alternative leader. I think there is 20% of people in this category and Modi is going to win the majority of them.

4. The rationalist crowd. - These are the people who make a good rational decision to vote and I am not sure how much of the positives of Modi govt has impacted them. I kind of feel Modi might have lost some of these people who actually voted him to power in 2014. I have a feeling there are 20% of people in this category and Modi may win 10% of this.

5. The self-centrist crowd. - These are the people who only think about their own household benefits. I am pretty sure there is a percentage of this crowd that benefitted from this govt but there is also a large percentage of this crowd who are not satisfied. Off the 20%, Modi may win maybe 10% of this crowd.

So Modi gets around 40% of the electorate. Now you need to figure out the variables of the shape and distribution of this electorate in specific regions to figure out if that will translate into actual seats. My prediction is NDA will lose 30-40 seats but will win the majority.

I am going back to my old post. Modi simply lost Category 1 and has no change in category 3...no questions there. He could only garner 15% of category 4 and 5. Category 5 crowd needed a bit more post-Covid sops and BJP lost track of them. Category 4 did not show up being lazy and the booth level workers were not energized enough to bring them to vote. I will blame that on the ticket allocation process. Good tickets were replaced for no apparent reason. VKS is one example that I cannot comprehend. Category 2 got fully consolidated by the INDI gang this time. I will give credit to them on that. Ram temple actually helped the opposition is the sad truth.

BJP needs to work on 4 and 5. More infrastructure, educational sops, loans, more unskilled jobs and welfare schemes are in order.

The 10 year long dream project of converting the category 2 people to vote as a block of Hindus/Hindutva voters has failed miserably and I would simply abandon the project and start playing the regional games and compete with the opposition. Let orgs like RSS do the Dharmic/cultural transformation work. Govt needs to conduct the census, get the data and play the game.

I also want PMO to directly foresee investigation related to foreign interference and corruption at high places. We need NIA type courts to quickly try and punish corrupt bureaucrats and politicians alike. If we need to bring institutional meritocracy, then we need to be ruthless in this front.

[KL Dubey]

Chetakji
retaining the key states before 2029 is the most important don't you think!!
Bihar to start with and work up
Given the results Susashanbabu could still be face of election there you think
I don't think BJP would be foolish enough to snap ties or move him to greener pastures so to speak!!

Much before Bihar, the upcoming challenges in 2024 will be to retain MH and HR, and to wrest JH back. All three states have given unexpectedly low seats to NDA in LS 2024; and the politics of each state has become complicated in different ways. We can discuss later on when a thread is opened for 2024 state elections.

[hanumadu]

https://results.eci.gov.in/AcResultGenJ ... lt-S01.htm

AP assembly polling percentages:
TDP - 45.60%
YSRCP - 39.37%
BJP - 2.83%
INC - 1.72%
Others - 8.53%

JSP does have its own vote share but it's under others. Given BJP got 8 seats and JSP 21 seats, JSP must be around 2.5 times BJP which means:
JSP - 7%

Combine share of JSP and BJP, 9.83%.
Difference between TDP and YSRCP - 6.23% only despite the anti incumbency.

JSP is truly the king maker in AP. It was evident even in 2014 when when CBN showed his affection for Pawan Kalyan after winning the assembly.
BJP too can make a significant difference to TDP's fortunes if it sends its votes for YSRCP or even stops them from going to TDP.

CBN found out this the hard way in 2019. I don't think he will continue his shenanigans this time around.

It seems its Pawan Kalyan who convinced BJP to tie up with TDP. Pawan Kalyan must have been approached by CBN to do so. PK will be pi$$ed off if CBN misbehaves.

Added Later:

2019 Assembly Election Results:

Andhra Pradesh Election Results 2024 Vs 2019: The Tale Of Two Polls As TDP Return Looks Imminent

In 2019, the YSRCP won 151 of the 175 Assembly seats with a 49.95% vote share, while the TDP secured only 23 seats with 39.17% of the votes. The JSP, allied with the BSP and the Left, won one seat, garnering 5.53% of the votes. Neither the BJP nor the INC won any seats.

With anti incumbency in 2029, CBN needs a coalition.
Significantly JSP did not ally with TDP in 2019. Did BJP convince him not to?

[syam]

It's always - pro-Modi wave in public vs anti-Modi wave in elites.

Anti-Modi wave is slowly creeping into general public mindset too. UP walas are very decisive this time giving support to any one. This is type of early set back can do wonders for long term BJP growth.

BJP should focus on what's fueling this anti-Modi wave. Identify the driving agents. Not that german ytber alone. AAPtards started cultivating their digital presence since early 2014 elections. All those early YTbers were from AAP circles.

[Neela]

MAD know that more than anything else, the regional parties in KL, WB, UP , TN are a threat to the nation and to BJP.
If CBN and NK have made their bed with BJP outright, what gives ?

[Arima]

Now that Ms Moitra back, can we expect renewed attacks on Adani and Ambani groups??
or was just a election ploy

dont we have a law to permanently stop such person being elected into Parliament when he/she is blacklisted for corruption???

it is like an employee fired for corruption is again coming back by giving re examination.

[hanumadu]

Chetakji
retaining the key states before 2029 is the most important don't you think!!
Bihar to start with and work up
Given the results Susashanbabu could still be face of election there you think
I don't think BJP would be foolish enough to snap ties or move him to greener pastures so to speak!!

Much before Bihar, the upcoming challenges in 2024 will be to retain MH and HR, and to wrest JH back. All three states have given unexpectedly low seats to NDA in LS 2024; and the politics of each state has become complicated in different ways. We can discuss later on when a thread is opened for 2024 state elections.

In hind sight, BJP should have put up with SS. Bear their loot for the first 2.5 years and try to undo the damage in the last 2.5 years. Public would have seen through them, eventually. I think its time to patch up with Udhav SS. This way the two other bigger evils like NCP and Congress can be kept at bay. Congress should be the primary target.

[hanumadu]

MAD know that more than anything else, the regional parties in KL, WB, UP , TN are a threat to the nation and to BJP.
If CBN and NK have made their bed with BJP outright, what gives ?

CBN has no choice. He couldn't have won without BJP and especially Jana Sena.

See the polling percentages in this post.

2014, 2019 and 2024 have proved PK is the King Maker in Andhra Pradesh and BJP can make a significant difference too.

[vera_k]

The stock market thinks Modi/NDA are forming the government. But Gandhi/INDIA haven't conceded the election yet. Today should tell.

[Dilbu]

The stock market thinks Modi/NDA are forming the government. But Gandhi/INDIA haven't conceded the election yet. Today should tell.

Why should Gandhi/Indi concede it? BJP is clearly the party with largest vote share and NDA as an alliance are above 272 mark. The first claim to form the govt is with Modi.

[chetak]

The stock market thinks Modi/NDA are forming the government. But Gandhi/INDIA haven't conceded the election yet. Today should tell.

Why should Gandhi/Indi concede it? BJP is clearly the party with largest vote share and NDA as an alliance are above 272 mark. The first claim to form the govt is with Modi

Good job Dilbu ji.

Thanks for the magic.

[Pratyush]

Now that Ms Moitra back, can we expect renewed attacks on Adani and Ambani groups??
or was just a election ploy

dont we have a law to permanently stop such person being elected into Parliament when he/she is blacklisted for corruption???

it is like an employee fired for corruption is again coming back by giving re examination.

She will have to be convicted of corruption first. Legally she has not yet been convicted.

[OmkarC]

https://results.eci.gov.in/AcResultGenJ ... lt-S01.htm

AP assembly polling percentages:
TDP - 45.60%
YSRCP - 39.37%
BJP - 2.83%
INC - 1.72%
Others - 8.53%

JSP does have its own vote share but it's under others. Given BJP got 8 seats and JSP 21 seats, JSP must be around 2.5 times BJP which means:
JSP - 7%

Combine share of JSP and BJP, 9.83%.
Difference between TDP and YSRCP - 6.23% only despite the anti incumbency.

JSP is truly the king maker in AP. It was evident even in 2014 when when CBN showed his affection for Pawan Kalyan after winning the assembly.
BJP too can make a significant difference to TDP's fortunes if it sends its votes for YSRCP or even stops them from going to TDP.

CBN found out this the hard way in 2019. I don't think he will continue his shenanigans this time around.

It seems its Pawan Kalyan who convinced BJP to tie up with TDP. Pawan Kalyan must have been approached by CBN to do so. PK will be pi$$ed off if CBN misbehaves.

We have to be a bit careful in interpreting those numbers. Those percentages are being calculated by simply dividing the total votes polled to a party divided by the total votes cast in the elections - a very simplistic metric that masks ground realities of some BJP candidates benefitting primarily from vote transfer through TDP-JS alliance but not through BJP's core vote bank attracted to the party based on its policies. For eg, take candidates like Sujana Chowdary from Vijayawada West (assembly) and CM Ramesh from Anakapalle (Lok Sabha). Both these candidates won on BJP tickets with huge majorities, but they are die hard loyalists of TDP and TDP cadre worked for them as their own, as they spend most of their time working either w/ state TDP or central BJP leadership and dont bother w/ state BJP at all. If BJP contested alone it would have drawn far smaller qty of votes and the % would've been drastically lower.

BTW, CBN's son Lokesh mentioned in a press meet that they will stay put w/ NDA as well but wishful thinking that CBN will not continue his shenanigans when he has absolute majority in AP assembly and w/o his support there is no NDA govt.

[KL Dubey]

Much before Bihar, the upcoming challenges in 2024 will be to retain MH and HR, and to wrest JH back. All three states have given unexpectedly low seats to NDA in LS 2024; and the politics of each state has become complicated in different ways. We can discuss later on when a thread is opened for 2024 state elections.

In hind sight, BJP should have put up with SS. Bear their loot for the first 2.5 years and try to undo the damage in the last 2.5 years. Public would have seen through them, eventually. I think its time to patch up with Udhav SS. This way the two other bigger evils like NCP and Congress can be kept at bay. Congress should be the primary target.

Its not just about Thakre, its a bigger issue. Fundamentally, there is no way BJP should want to play second fiddle to a small-time party in an important state like MH. After the headaches with the original Palturam in BH, the last thing you want is to create another Palturam in MH. Same equation: BJP-SS-NCP-INC, like in Bihar: BJP-JDU-RJD-INC...with the Palturam shuttling from one side to another but permanently being the CM.

These guys thus tend to survive a long time by alliances, and are hard to get rid of. Once Thakre is indulged with CM post, he will proceed to stall all development initiatives, and let his family run riot.

Neither Amit Shah nor anyone else had promised any CM post to Thakre. The latter knew his game was up in the NDA. The VS 2019 election starkly showed his alarming loss of vote share (we discussed this in the 2019 election thread years ago) within the NDA itself. He just made up this drama at the instigation of Charade Pawar, who enticed him with the CM post...and the rest is history.....

Like I said, things sometimes have to get worse before they get better. Things have been partially sorted by some good old-fashioned "tod-phod" work. The LS results might not look pretty in MH, but without the tod-phod the NDA would be decimated: the MVA vote share combined would be too high to overcome in such a short lead time.

I am sure the NDA managers in MH will be planning further steps. Hard slog ahead. It may be open season in MH soon...a lot of things can happen....we will see. If Thakre comes back on his own with no crazy conditions, it may work out.