2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

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KL Dubey
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by KL Dubey »

OmkarC wrote: 05 Jun 2024 11:55 We have to be a bit careful in interpreting those numbers.
It's not just the "numbers". In addition to the vote share of BJP, the strength and popularity of Modi was a key factor in the AP campaign. TDP and JSP leveraged their alliance with Modi to the hilt, and promised to bring lots of "goodies" to AP (via Modi) once NDA 3.0 started. In their rallies, it was like Pawan Kalyan thought he was on a 1960s Telugu movie set...the level of bombastic hyperbole in praise of Modi was truly hilarious. At one point he referred to Modi as "devadattam" (gift of god). Now both Chandranna and Kalyanbabu look eager to be in NDA so they can start getting the benefits. These are also the same reasons that YSRCP keeps wanting to join NDA...leverage Modi's support....the enforcement cases are also an issue. Sadly for this guy, he will be likely still giving "outside support" to Modi, possibly to ensure that Chandranna doesn't put him in prison.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by KL Dubey »

Dilbu wrote: 05 Jun 2024 11:47
vera_k wrote: 05 Jun 2024 11:28 The stock market thinks Modi/NDA are forming the government. But Gandhi/INDIA haven't conceded the election yet. Today should tell.
Why should Gandhi/Indi concede it? BJP is clearly the party with largest vote share and NDA as an alliance are above 272 mark. The first claim to form the govt is with Modi.
Yes, again the media is creating hot air. Folks who feel that they got poor information from the media during the campaign must (ironically) use the same media to analyze the results and aftermath.

As usual, great job on that anti-jinx.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Aditya_V »

Regarding MH the States hit by Drought are Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana , AP. In all states starting with TRS incumbents have been smashed.

INC and allies have won mainly in Vidarbha and Mumbai city- Minority effect. UBT Sena mainly propped by NCP. BJP should go with Shinde faction in State elections, get rid of Ajith Pawar NCP faction and hope for a good Monsoon, BJP benefitted heavily in Karnataka due to bad Monsoon, otherwise no way they could reverse the loss suffered in Last year's Assembly elections. This factor helped BJP -TDP Combo in Andhra and to a certain extent in Telangana.

SO for MH I really hope for a good monsoon and the BJP should use purse strings to bring relief for Distressed farm ecosystem in MH.

Regarding TN- DMK was lost 3 election cycles 2011,2014, 2016- post Jayalalitha's death -AIDMK seems to have a major DMK Faction leading it. Its not only BJP but a State based party starting with the Betrayal in 2019, 2021 and 2024. The leadership has been very friendly to DMK but cadre has been pretty annoyed with 3 election cycle defeats. If AIDMK goes the same way in 2026- I think there will be major shifting in Party Cadre and leadership to BJP. I suggest Annamalai is kept in charge to grow the TN BJP in the next 15-20 years.

There are examples like Orissa- BJP had NIL/Marginal presence, like all states it will take time but can be done.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Pratyush »

Looking at Maharashtra.

I am happy that Ajit is done. Sharad will kick the bucket soon. Supriya has no ability to manage the party. That leaves her with 2 choices.


1) Merge with Congress.

2) Merge with the NDA depending on the terms they get.

That takes care of one of the 4 poles in the Maharashtra politics.

SS Shinde faction can also be induced to merge with the BJP. That will add to the LS seat tally.

That in turn will remove another pole from Maharashtra politics.

But in order for this to work, Shinde Sena has to be assimilated before the coming assembly elections.

Once that's done, try and deal with Uddhav Thakre.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by hanumadu »

OmkarC wrote: 05 Jun 2024 11:55
hanumadu wrote: 05 Jun 2024 11:18 https://results.eci.gov.in/AcResultGenJ ... lt-S01.htm

AP assembly polling percentages:
TDP - 45.60%
YSRCP - 39.37%
BJP - 2.83%
INC - 1.72%
Others - 8.53%

JSP does have its own vote share but it's under others. Given BJP got 8 seats and JSP 21 seats, JSP must be around 2.5 times BJP which means:
JSP - 7%

...
We have to be a bit careful in interpreting those numbers. Those percentages are being calculated by simply dividing the total votes polled to a party divided by the total votes cast in the elections - a very simplistic metric that masks ground realities of some BJP candidates benefitting primarily from vote transfer through TDP-JS alliance but not through BJP's core vote bank attracted to the party based on its policies. For eg, take candidates like Sujana Chowdary from Vijayawada West (assembly) and CM Ramesh from Anakapalle (Lok Sabha). Both these candidates won on BJP tickets with huge majorities, but they are die hard loyalists of TDP and TDP cadre worked for them as their own, as they spend most of their time working either w/ state TDP or central BJP leadership and dont bother w/ state BJP at all. If BJP contested alone it would have drawn far smaller qty of votes and the % would've been drastically lower.

BTW, CBN's son Lokesh mentioned in a press meet that they will stay put w/ NDA as well but wishful thinking that CBN will not continue his shenanigans when he has absolute majority in AP assembly and w/o his support there is no NDA govt.
Yes, I am aware of it. If INC could get 1.72%, BJP won't be much worse off. And don't forget Jana Sena. Its not about this assembly, its about getting re-elected in 2029.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by OmkarC »

@Aditya

I wouldn't attribute TRS/BRS demise to the drought. People were vexed w/ heavy handedness of KCR and his party bigwigs who were an assortment of big contractors, movement leaders & some criminal elements. BJP should've benefitted from this anti-incumbency in last year's assembly elections but refusal to hold KCR accountable for his corruption + enticing freebies helped Congress win instead. This time around BJP did get KCR's daughter Kavitha arrested to dispel any secret dealings between them (a rumor that congress floated last time around).

Once congress won, all those BRS leaders scrambled to either congress or BJP, sensing bleak future if they stayed put. BRS had 3 core voting demographies - Telangana movement folks, minorities & ultra-leftists (former maoists/naxals). Voters are now gradually following the leaders that migrated to other parties, with the latter two going enmasse to congress while the former mostly shifting to BJP.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by KL Dubey »

"Pratyush" -

^^Yes, I was going to write similar things in my MH post, but it would become too long. What you describe would be the fitting revenge/response to the so-called "Chanakyan" antics of Charade.

Based on his recent statements ("no choice but to join INC"), Charade will more likely merge his NCP with INC soon, or whisper the same into Supriya's ear while croaking. I reckon he would want to do it while he still alive and there is an actual NCP still available. But again, he is an unreliable fellow and can go to NDA as well.

Shinde is different, its tricky. If he merges with BJP then Uddhav will immediately reclaim Thakre Sr's legacy. The better route would be to deal with the two NCPs first. Then Uddhav will have only the INC left to ally with, and may come back to NDA as a junior partner.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Pratyush »

I was speaking with a Jat friend from Muzaffarnagar.

His comment bear out what we are hearing from social media chatter. Namely, RSS mostly sat out, Jats and Rajputs have deserted the party. It would seem that the selection of the current Haryana CM, and the ticket distribution around Delhi, made those groups withdraw support from the BJP.

On my saying that Yogi will be ousted by SP in 27 assembly elections. His response was that Yogi will comeback to power stronger.

Take is for what it's worth.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by OmkarC »

hanumadu wrote: 05 Jun 2024 12:40
OmkarC wrote: 05 Jun 2024 11:55

We have to be a bit careful in interpreting those numbers. Those percentages are being calculated by simply dividing the total votes polled to a party divided by the total votes cast in the elections - a very simplistic metric that masks ground realities of some BJP candidates benefitting primarily from vote transfer through TDP-JS alliance but not through BJP's core vote bank attracted to the party based on its policies. For eg, take candidates like Sujana Chowdary from Vijayawada West (assembly) and CM Ramesh from Anakapalle (Lok Sabha). Both these candidates won on BJP tickets with huge majorities, but they are die hard loyalists of TDP and TDP cadre worked for them as their own, as they spend most of their time working either w/ state TDP or central BJP leadership and dont bother w/ state BJP at all. If BJP contested alone it would have drawn far smaller qty of votes and the % would've been drastically lower.

BTW, CBN's son Lokesh mentioned in a press meet that they will stay put w/ NDA as well but wishful thinking that CBN will not continue his shenanigans when he has absolute majority in AP assembly and w/o his support there is no NDA govt.
Yes, I am aware of it. If INC could get 1.72%, BJP won't be much worse off. And don't forget Jana Sena. Its not about this assembly, its about getting re-elected in 2029.
Perhaps.

INC likely has a higher voter % due to Sharmila/Brother Anil's xtian voter base but also is seen as the main culprit for splitting the state - a sentiment that's softening substantially as time progresses.

BJP has no political space except perhaps fulfilling the aspirations of a small fraction of Raju community in northern Andhra and assorted chunks of voters unevenly distributed across the state.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by hanumadu »

Why can't Mayawati be part of NDA?
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Cyrano »

Who needs one more elephant in the room ? :)
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by KL Dubey »

^^Same reason as Thakre...fear of precious remaining vote bank (Jatav dalits) being swallowed by BJP.

These days she has been trying to bide her time waiting for SP to collapse, so she can forge a new "M + Jatav dalit + assorted others" combo and become the second pole in UP. However, the unexpected windfall for the SP buggers has put a spanner in the works....she is left with a zero seat tally now.

Maybe she will hold out till VS 2027 to see if SP collapses.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Cyrano »

Would some hints about freeing temples from state control and repeal of wakf act have helped the BJP consolidate enough hindu votes to win say 20-25 seats more?

Besides the core BJP supporter, what does the rest of the hindu population have to look forward to in Modi 3.0 in terms of advancing dharmic causes further ?

The whole world calls the BJP a "right wing hindu nationalist party" but BJP has some how forgotten its roots and after delivering on many aspects of development, Kashi & other corridors and Ram Mandir, have they started thinking there is nothing more to be promised/done on advancing Dharma?
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

Smriti Irani's Situation:

I think it's wrong to blame the voters for not feeling for development brought by her. She probably thought work will speak for itself and never bother with promoting her work.

That's biggest mistake in present Kali Yuga. If you are giving even 1 rupee to another person, you have to make big deal outta it. Never make it easy. Make them work for it, and reward them at the end of the process.

Indian mind is conditioned to take things for granted. If you don't make big deal outta it, they will forget it about next day.

For example, building IIM won't fetch you votes even if it is good deed. You have to make it big deal to the general public. Make each student feel it. Make them remember your deed for all their life. It's because of you they got that education. (typical Congress MO).

Shrewd politicians even go few steps further. They let their supporters to set tea shops and related eco-system near to that IIM. At least 100 families will come under their fold.

Loyal, permanent support system is what helps you rule for a long time. Congress already cultivated it for decades. They survived 10 year strong Modiji rule using this support system.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

Cyrano wrote: 05 Jun 2024 13:17 Would some hints about freeing temples from state control and repeal of wakf act have helped the BJP consolidate enough hindu votes to win say 20-25 seats more?

Besides the core BJP supporter, what does the rest of the hindu population have to look forward to in Modi 3.0 in terms of advancing dharmic causes further ?

The whole world calls the BJP a "right wing hindu nationalist party" but BJP has some how forgotten its roots and after delivering on many aspects of development, Kashi & other corridors and Ram Mandir, have they started thinking there is nothing more to be promised/done on advancing Dharma?
It's not about roots, Cyrano ji. The opposition trying to label BJP as right wing hindu nationalist party. This will restrict BJP to less than 40% votes in Hindu community. They will be viewed as party of those 40% fringe. The remaining 60% will distance themselves. Very easy for picking by Congi+. Once that happens, Congi+ will stitch their vote banks and remove BJP from the equation.

That's why BJP does Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikas thing. To counter that label. And increase the appeal among much larger hindu crowd.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Cyrano »

I think thats precisely the problem. SSSV makes them neither here not there. Why can tottering coalition govts pass stuff like places of worship act and wakf act to please 15% where as a 303 govt aiming for 400+ doesnt dare to promise to do more for hindus?

The hindu nationalist label should be decomplexed and worn with pride, not something to feel half ashamed about. Thats the only way to consolidate and expand hindu vote. I don't think the remaining 60% hindus will distance themselves if BJP learns the art of propaganda. Hire a couple of leftists if need be ;)
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by KL Dubey »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 06607.html
"Nitish Kumar is in Delhi and he will be submitting the letter in which JD(U) has proposed Narendra Modi as PM," says JD(U) leader KC Tyagi.

Before leaving for Delhi, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu also said he was with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). "You always want news. I am experienced and I have seen several political changes in this country. We are in NDA, I’m going to the NDA meeting. In course of time, we will report it," he told reporters.
Pappu Gaandi meanwhile is delighted with the above news....

Pappu: "maa, dekho! mai leader of opposition ban gayaa! jo das saal ke liye nahi kar sakaa, ab maine kar dikhaya, mamma mia!"

Antonia: "shabaash beta! ab koi tujhe saadhaaran pappu nahi bulayega, kyonki ab tu pappuon ka leader ban gaya, mere laal!"

Xi Jinping: "nihao! now you an' i, we sign mo' an' mo' M O U !"
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

@Cyrano ji
The question should be - how did Cong get away with wakf act without getting branded as islamic party?

Our oldies here will say - that's why they introduced Secular concept in first place. It was nothing but Islam in disguise. :P

BJP on other hand doesn't prepare the ground at all. And never bothers with how to package the whole thing to public once it is done.

If you are trying to free temple, first make a case for that. Show to the public why these temples needed to be freed. And then create a movement with tactical support from the government. The intensity of the movement depends on the seriousness of the bill. Then pass the bill in parliament.

BJP does none of that. They just present the bill in parliament. And then Sibal will file a case in court and then our milards will scrap the bill. :roll:
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Cyrano »

There is enough support for freeing temples in the society. Millaards will not dare intervene if there is popular demand short of uprising. Where there is a will, the way will open up.

This a big hindu consolation item the BJP wilfully ignored, for reasons best known to NaMo.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

How many of them coming on streets to free temples?
You are overestimating our numbers. So called hard hinduthvadis were less than 1 lakh if we don't consider sangh eco-system.

For Ram Mandir, countless movement happened. Look how long we have to fight to make it happen. Freeing temple is no small task. Infact, it is much bigger thing than Ram Mandir.

I see at least one immediate reaction from cong+. They will cry - look how RSS looting hindu temples. They are siding with brahmins. At least earlier, the temple money used to feed poor. Now RSS wasting it on useless ceremonies and laser shows. :((

Consolidation never happens after the deed. Ram Mandir is best example.
The deeds happen after the consolidation.

It's very tricky thing. :)
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by arshyam »

Cyrano wrote: 05 Jun 2024 14:20 This a big hindu consolation item the BJP wilfully ignored, for reasons best known to NaMo.
They got caught in their own narrative of SSSV and Vasudaiva Kutumbakam. Nothing wrong with the narrative as long as it's wielded to achieve your ends, but here the ends sort of changed over time.

Cyrano wrote: 05 Jun 2024 13:47 The hindu nationalist label should be decomplexed and worn with pride, not something to feel half ashamed about. Thats the only way to consolidate and expand hindu vote. I don't think the remaining 60% hindus will distance themselves if BJP learns the art of propaganda. Hire a couple of leftists if need be ;)
Modiji himself in a Reuters interview in 2013 famously had said:
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has described himself as a “Hindu nationalist” because he was a born Hindu.

“I am nationalist. I’m patriotic. Nothing is wrong. I am born Hindu. Nothing is wrong. So I’m a Hindu nationalist. So yes,you can say I’m a Hindu nationalist because I’m a born Hindu,” he told Reuters news agency in an interview in his official residence in Gandhinagar.

This version of Modi got 283/336 seats - and wouldn't have happened without some of that 60%.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

Deans wrote: 05 Jun 2024 08:35 Unless one understands the problem, a solution cannot be found.

In the Core BJP areas (North and West) fewer % of Hindus voted for the BJP this time compared to 2019.
The only exception was MP.
This had nothing to do with Muslim consolidation (which was already very high), or lower turnout (affected non BJP seats,
but was insignificant in BJP held seats).
The BJP outspent its opponents and gave away more freebies (free food under PMJKAY is the mother of all freebie schemes), so we
shouldn't be whining about freebies, Soros etc.

...........................
Deansji, I think we should really try to break this down and do a detailed model. Of, course, we won't have all the information and resources, but I was thinking of listing hypothesis and trying to do a correlation. Best would be if we could get polling booth level data, and run it, else at least at constituency level.

The data input can be:
a) 2024 Result
b) 2019 Result
c) Was candidate changed?
d) Was it an outsider introduced?
e) What was M %age in constituency?
f) What was change in %age voting?
g) Was it affected by Farm Laws?
h) Was welfare schemes by centres reduced/ increased?
i) Was welfare schemes by State increased/ reduced?
j) Is the current State Government part of NDA?
k) Is it a reserved constituency?
l) Was it covered (meeting done) during the two yatra's by INC?
m) Was there some tod-madod activity in the constituency (like Maharashtra?)
n) Was there reports of caste issues (like mahapanchayats in W. UP)?

There maybe many more variables. Hypothesis can be:
i) Is communal vote consolidation a key variable?
ii) Is there a strong correlation between voter turnout and low conversion?
iii) Is reduction of welfare schemes responsbile
etc,etc.

I do not have the firepower to do this, but would be glad to help. Can work on data wrangling, and run some statistical analysis. But would be nice to see you put up an article on your blog. Please DM me if you want to take this up.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Aditya_V »

Any Chance Pappu will resign Rae Bareli and ask Priyanka to stand from there! it will be a test if BJP can get its act together
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by hanumadu »

Sensational headlines about Nitish already palti maar, their possible outrageous demands and what not while there is nothing of that sort.

Also there will be a lot of gaslighting that Modi lost because of Hindutvawad. Ignore and march on.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vijayk »

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2024-06-05

Same strategy in karnataka and telangana
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vijayk »

If all bjp workers sit and make all central benefit schemes to poor SC/ST/Obc voters (housing, ration and health), they will win but they don't...
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by kvraghav »

vijayk wrote: 05 Jun 2024 15:38 If all bjp workers sit and make all central benefit schemes to poor SC/ST/Obc voters (housing, ration and health), they will win but they don't...
Why would anyone do it? You will never get access to the leader once he wins. Your supporters work wont be done. You wont get any sort of contracts or other support which will mostly be given to the highest bidder from other party.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote: 05 Jun 2024 13:17 Would some hints about freeing temples from state control and repeal of wakf act have helped the BJP consolidate enough hindu votes to win say 20-25 seats more?

Besides the core BJP supporter, what does the rest of the hindu population have to look forward to in Modi 3.0 in terms of advancing dharmic causes further ?

The whole world calls the BJP a "right wing hindu nationalist party" but BJP has some how forgotten its roots and after delivering on many aspects of development, Kashi & other corridors and Ram Mandir, have they started thinking there is nothing more to be promised/done on advancing Dharma?

Cyrano ji,


If you recall how the commies in amrika and commies in other places outside of amrika changed the israeli palestine narrative in it's entirety and stood the narrative on its head by using SM, staged protests, paid for by soreass funded NGOs, including toxic toolkits and and digital and visual media media manipulation.

Disinfolab has put out a fairly detailed account on how such media using chatgpt and other means have disrupted the Indian elections, using foreign influence to change perceptions that were seen as harmful to the congis and the commies including their allies and targeted the nationalistic interests

What happened in amrika has been repeated in India and yet we seem keen on only discussing what the Hindus did or did not do to tank Modiji's bid to win and get a majority while doing so.

In short they have egregiously influenced the 2024 national elections in India and virtually managed to stop India in her tracks and it's OK with us.

And now the conversation has shifted to blaming the Hindu victims who will wind up paying a very heavy price for what these commie scum have done

What stopped the govt from blocking youtube, twitter, facebook and assbook, for the duration of the elections, to safe guard their democracy or did they crap their pants thinking what veedem and some misbegotten amriki schitt would say would say

rightwing youtubers are saying that they complained numerous times but no one paud any heed to them

WTF was the BJP IT cell doing while all this crap was going on, didn't they have the means to check and react, at least by informing the authorities

The paper said that intelligence agencies were aware of attempts to interfere with youtube by razakar elements in a jihadi dominated IT city in the south.

Why did they not rake youtube, the amriki company, over the coals immediately after the reports came in
Last edited by chetak on 05 Jun 2024 16:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

That Naqvi lady had problem with gas cylinder delivery or something. She directly called some Ministry office and got it fixed.

meanwhile String Vinod's yt channel was removed. He wrote to every ministry. No one bothered to help him.

That tells us the situation with BJP and where it went wrong. Instead of cultivating their own people, they tried to woo congi people. Now all our aspirations at risk.

I am telling it again. Modiji got hijacked by baboons in the office. Our words don't reach him. His immediate circle insulates him from actual public pulse. They trapped him with this global leader bs. I imagine even Amit Shah getting baffled by that whole circus.

If we remember, we didn't see Shah with Modi in last term. Almost all public appearance, Shah is absent from the scene. For temple stuff, we can excuse him. Cuz his mother passed away recently. But no such excuse for other public meetings.

It's no longer MAD. It's MJ.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by putnanja »

I don't think Modi/AS didn't know about ground realities. The fact that he had to resort to naming muslims (for quotas, bringing up MMS talk , inheritance tax etc) shows that he knew things weren't looking good and was trying to get the people on his side. Yes, there is a certain element of isolation and lack of public pulse as he no longer can interact with party functionaries and others leisurely like earlier.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

Mukesh.Kumar wrote: 05 Jun 2024 14:58
Deansji, I think we should really try to break this down and do a detailed model. Of, course, we won't have all the information and resources, but I was thinking of listing hypothesis and trying to do a correlation. Best would be if we could get polling booth level data, and run it, else at least at constituency level.

I do not have the firepower to do this, but would be glad to help. Can work on data wrangling, and run some statistical analysis. But would be nice to see you put up an article on your blog. Please DM me if you want to take this up.
Mukeshji. I try to keep politics out of my blog, because readers argue emotionally (even when they have never seen the country I'm discussing).
rather than have fact based discussions. When I come across data that is relevant I'll post if here.
This is the only forum in which I express political views.
Deans
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

putnanja wrote: 05 Jun 2024 17:00 I don't think Modi/AS didn't know about ground realities. The fact that he had to resort to naming muslims (for quotas, bringing up MMS talk , inheritance tax etc) shows that he knew things weren't looking good and was trying to get the people on his side. Yes, there is a certain element of isolation and lack of public pulse as he no longer can interact with party functionaries and others leisurely like earlier.
When you are in power (particularly heading a nation of 1.4 billion) you have no time to get into details of ground reality. It's not the fault of the
leader. I've seen it happen in business too. Modiji cannot call up a party worker in UP to ask if his MP is performing. You have to rely on people who will
give you the unfiltered truth. Too often you are told what people think you want to hear.
syam
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

OpIndia alone has more reach than 70% of the news outlets Modiji gave interviews to.
If he is really aware of ground realities, he would have given an interview to Nupur and Rahul. Seriously, no reward for actual supporters in last 10 years.

I know it sounds very selfish. But selfish is what makes people stick to you in hard times. BJP treats their voters and supporters as same as their opposition treats them.

One of my other complaints is,
Modiji talks about fighting Pappu and entire syndicate in election rallies. But when he is in office, he completely forgets about it and pretends like he is one of the baboon in his office. It back fired big time in WB. If only he protected his supporters there, it would've have given longterm dividends.

He ignored them when they were getting butchered there. And few years later, you go there and talk big words about defeating her.
Aditya_V
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Aditya_V »

Looking at UP some really professional intelligence agency level psy ops was done to make sure if BJP wins reservation ends directly to smartphones, looking at Rahul late entry into Rae Bareli, I feel this was distinct possibility, with the general 400 plus discussion and bombarding information that if BJP gets 400 Reservation ends , probably clinched Purvanchal for SP and INC around 20-25 seats.

The proof of this would be Rahul quitting Wayanad seat, as logically he can quit Rae Bareli, give it to his sister and they can represent North and South. People like Ajai Rai and rest of INC riff raff getting soo many votes really looks fishy.
Deans
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

Swarajya has some good reports on why BJP did badly in WB & Mah.
You can access some free articles for non subscribers.
vijayk
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vijayk »

May things have to be reviewed ... Many schemes are not reaching people

Petrol/Gas policy - No matter what is the international price, Petro price never goes down. No matter how well you are using, people are seeing 100+ per liter. The states add tax of 28-35 and blame center. No communication

Ayushman Bharat - Many hospitals don't get payments from state Govt. so they refuse patients

Housing scheme - Muslims get that for their community. No one does for Hindus. They have to go to Village pramukh and bribe him
Pradyut
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Pradyut »

Deans wrote: 05 Jun 2024 17:51 Swarajya has some good reports on why BJP did badly in WB & Mah.
You can access some free articles for non subscribers.
Swarajya article is misleading w.r.t. to WB.

In WB they have just got the committed vote, which is roughly the same as what they got in 2021 Assembly election.
BJP lost the target in WB because they just watched and did nothing during the post 2021 Assembly election violence. Therefore, no new gains (workers, voters, social influences ... nothing).

People have been directly and indirectly conveyed in uncertain terms of the consequences if they vote anybody else other than TMC. With security cover, BJP would have gotten to at-least 2019 seat numbers.
Last edited by Pradyut on 05 Jun 2024 18:08, edited 1 time in total.
A_Gupta
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by A_Gupta »

I will say this only once and not argue about it.

As noted even by Ambedkar in the early 40s, Indian Muslim society is as riven with divisions as Hindu society. The difference is that Muslims by and large unite under "Islam is in danger"; and by and large, Hindus simply aren't aware of danger or they downplay it and fail to unite.

So politicians are able to play on Hindu divisions; but generally aren't able to play the same game with Muslims. Call it appeasement or Hindu taqiya or whatever, the way forward is to make the "Islam is in danger" to be implausible. Then you can detach sections of the Qaum and modernize them, let me put it that way. When divide and rule is the universal formula that works in India, then that is the strategy that needs to be followed. For that, Hindus have to play the long game.
syam
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

Jairam Ramesh and Raut doing twitter diplomacy with CBN. :rotfl:
Everyone trying to become late Ahmed bhai these days.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

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