2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

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Ambar
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Ambar »

Aditya_V wrote: 05 Jun 2024 17:37 Looking at UP some really professional intelligence agency level psy ops was done to make sure if BJP wins reservation ends directly to smartphones, looking at Rahul late entry into Rae Bareli, I feel this was distinct possibility, with the general 400 plus discussion and bombarding information that if BJP gets 400 Reservation ends , probably clinched Purvanchal for SP and INC around 20-25 seats.

The proof of this would be Rahul quitting Wayanad seat, as logically he can quit Rae Bareli, give it to his sister and they can represent North and South. People like Ajai Rai and rest of INC riff raff getting soo many votes really looks fishy.
Nothing fishy. We forget that parties exist for people and not the other way around. Those of us who live outside UP had no idea about the anti-incumbency wave, but talk to someone in UP even before the results and it becomes obvious. Credit is due where it is due, INC/SP got their caste arithmetic spot on. BJP MPs were MIA just like in other states hoping Modi will help them win again. Smriti Irani, who won by 50k votes in 2019, was doing video campaigning where was Priyanka was hitting towns and villages in person. Then there is the excellent social media management by Congress. True or false they spun a narrative the last couple of years that Modi/Shah want to cut Yogi down few notches, this was exacerbated by the fact that Yogi's 30+ candidates were rejected by Nadda and Shah (reported by many media outlets and not just youtubias).

The massive defeat in Ayodhya, Mathura and Amethi should give a clue how poor the performance of MPs were and how strong was the anti-incumbency. In Ayodhya, Congress/SaPa completely negated the Ram Mandir "feel good" factor by highlighting the plight of those who lost their homes and businesses to demolishment drive but did not receive adequate compensation. Considering the incompetent, corrupt MPs, wrong candidate selection, wrong caste calculation etc its a miracle BJP ended with 30+ seats in UP. That said if there is a assembly election held there tomorrow, i wouldnt be too surprised if Yogi comes roaring back to power.

RaGa must be kicking himself for not running from Amethi because he could have won with an even bigger margin. BJP now has to redo all the work going back to 2010 when Amit Shah rejuvenated the UP BJP during his "tadi par" years.

While many of us were complaining about the govt not doing the long overdue census, in a way its good considering delineation could have given UPA a majority given their performance in northern states.

If JP Nadda remains as the national president even after this then there's not much to say. The party just has 3 months before Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand goes to polls, there is not a minute to lose.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by AkshaySG »

This result represents a humbling not just of the BJP leadership and psephologists but of people like us who discuss and dissect each decision with the comfort of 20/20 hindsight

If we go back in the Lok Sabha thread the majority opinion was against an alliance w Nitish, TDP and quite a few supported an alliance w BJD..... Those unpopular 3 decisions basically saved NDA (and saved the country a lot of harm)

Just something to remember now that we will start seeing long write ups of how this was obvious and actually BJP needed to do Xyz instead
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by triank »

Image
triank
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by triank »

Amidst BJP's narrow escape in the elections, Sai Deepak calls out the party in his Post-Election Reflections: Stay true to core Hindutva values, respect tradition, and tackle illegal migration. Ignore these at your peril. The path to lasting power lies in balancing progress with cultural integrity.

https://www.thejaipurdialogues.com/feat ... flections/
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vijayk »

what prevents BJP from kicking out illegal BD/Rohgniyas? why didn't they do it?
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Srutayus »

This result represents a humbling not just of the BJP leadership and psephologists but of people like us who discuss and dissect each decision with the comfort of 20/20 hindsight

If we go back in the Lok Sabha thread the majority opinion was against an alliance w Nitish, TDP and quite a few supported an alliance w BJD..... Those unpopular 3 decisions basically saved NDA (and saved the country a lot of harm)

Just something to remember now that we will start seeing long write ups of how this was obvious and actually BJP needed to do Xyz instead
Well said. Let us not draw the wrong conclusions from the perceived underperformance. Third term any incumbency is of ten not rational enough to be rationalized. And while there are rational reasons, many of the theories floating around in the guise of analysis are probably not it.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

I am not believing this reservation removal kite.

I personally witnessed how much non-SC people in North hate reservations. If this rumor hit the mark, It would have united every non-SC hindu in North.

This is false narrative. I think INDI's are trying to hide something crucial here.They might have expended some serious assets in UP. Our guys shouldn't miss this.

Also keep an eye on Prashant Kishore. He was intentionally kept out of INDI circles in key places. He was angry with them.

Everything looks suspicious.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Srutayus »

Beware especially of the insidious theories being floated to create rifts in the BJP and the Dharmic ecosystem. And of the "analysis" peddled by the likes of Coupta who think that they have refound their relevance.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by AkshaySG »

syam wrote: 05 Jun 2024 19:41 I am not believing this reservation removal kite.

I personally witnessed how much non-SC people in North hate reservations. If this rumor hit the mark, It would have united every non-SC hindu in North.

This is false narrative. I think INDI's are trying to hide something crucial here.They might have expended some serious assets in UP. Our guys shouldn't miss this.

Also keep an eye on Prashant Kishore. He was intentionally kept out of INDI circles in key places. He was angry with them.

Everything looks suspicious.
These days with technology narratives can be targeted and specific for a locality

So you can blast "reservation will be removed" ads and threats to SC/ST majority areas and locations in eastern UP while focusing on "all benefits are going to minorities and Yadavs/Rajputs/Kshatriyas" have been insulted " in Rajasthan and UC seats.

In 2019 MGB went with broad attacks of" Rafale, Chowkidar chor " etc and they didn't much resonate with voters.. They shifted strategies a little and saw success in KAR with Nandini vs Amul and other such battles which played on local pride and ego

There is no one countrywide narrative that cost BJP, It's a bunch of small narratives localized to 3-5 seats in different regions which proved the catalyst.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vijayk »

2022 UP elections ...
Eagle Eye Modi Ka Parivaar
@SortedEagle
आंकड़े खतरनाक हैं (वोटों का अंतर देखिए)

Bijnor :
BJP - 97165
SP+RLD - 95720
AIMIM - 2290

Nakur :
BJP - 1,03,771
SP - 1,03,616
AIMIM - 3591

Kursi :
BJP - 1,18,614
SP - 1,18,094
AIMIM - 8533

Sultanpur :
BJP - 92245
SP - 90857
AIMIM - 5240

Aurai :
BJP - 93438
SP - 91427
AIMIM - 2188

Shahganj :
BJP - 76035
SP- 70370
AIMIM- 7070

Firozabad :
BJP - 84225
SP - 70957
AIMIM - 16290
BJP won
7 seats with difference of 200 votes.
23 seats with difference of 500 votes
49 seats with difference of 1000 votes
86 seats with difference of 2000 votes.
U.P. This celebration of victory of Modi-Yogi will not happen again because by the next assembly elections of 2027, crores of Muslim youth will become new voters, then BJP will not be able to win these 165 seats with small margin (that too because of Owaisi). It is certain that an anti-Hindu government will be formed in 2027, and those 40 percent Hindus who do not vote will be responsible for it.
https://x.com/SortedEagle/status/1798354059080171872
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

Bhai log
I still stick with the fact that Hindi heartland is the key for 2029
Plus the Western areas and parts of East and South is sufficient
This need to open the door to the South yes a good concept but will take along time.
Given that the people (no disrespect to anyone from TN) happy to vote people calling them Dengue/termites yada yada and still vote for them for Rs 500 to 1000 a pop then so be it.
Don't waste resources trying to convert the unconvertible.
The trial of Senkol/Sab Saat etc gives nothing but we still have to believe Apne Hath Jagannath ke haath mein!!
My view needs some serious Atma chitan especially by the Trio (MAD) and Nadda
We need to look at Census (and if you want to include the caste so be it). This does take the wind out of INDI sails.
Regardless of anything this election was fought : Mandal vs Kammadal.
Kammandal can only do so much( and having seen Ram Temple doing diddly squat for winning Ayodhya) I feel there is a need for Mixing the two to beat the Peaceful Plus( I mean the INDI combo)
Yes there is noise that SP wining spread out but I would stick my neck out and say they are dominant Central UP and ?? Purvanchal.
I would say the need to the hour is reorganisation of the states especially a large state like UP and given delimitation exercise a unified UP will be a humongous challenge.
I would say Two most needed states to be divided : UP and MH
UP three parts and the elections to be held 2026?? same for MH : Maratwada and Vidharbh
This way you break the hold of the regional satraps (who's influence after one election cycle given that they are dynastic will eventually fade) will be restricted to smaller units (as they lack the resources for large areas) and also the rank corruption in the family will do them in.
Ultimately this will lead to BJP and Congress ( and even in the present election one on one BJP has given them a drubbing unless they have relied on allies to bail them out)
The smaller units are easier to govern and manage.
Resources allocation/generation is much easier. States being left to concentrate and deliver on the subjects in the State List. Again the local satraps if they are in power need to do so much to attract FDI and industry or they will loose out (yes you might quote the examples of Didi and Nitshwa) or they will be found out. They won't be able to sustain dole ad nauseam.
Eventually the elections will be two party or two alliance for Central elections.
Look at BRS/ YRCP/TDP/RJD
How many did RJD win in Jharkhand??
How many did TDP/YSRCP will In Telangana??
DMK for all their bravado are only in TN and Puducherry and cant get much traction in Karnataka( are there any fault lines in TN for division??)
Likewise for SS or for that Maharastra Ekikaran Saminthi
Now breaking MH might restrict SS to Maraathwada and NCP to fight it out
That leaves Vidharbh for Nagpur folks to nurture.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

AkshaySG wrote: 05 Jun 2024 19:59 These days with technology narratives can be targeted and specific for a locality

So you can blast "reservation will be removed" ads and threats to SC/ST majority areas and locations in eastern UP while focusing on "all benefits are going to minorities and Yadavs/Rajputs/Kshatriyas" have been insulted " in Rajasthan and UC seats.

In 2019 MGB went with broad attacks of" Rafale, Chowkidar chor " etc and they didn't much resonate with voters.. They shifted strategies a little and saw success in KAR with Nandini vs Amul and other such battles which played on local pride and ego

There is no one countrywide narrative that cost BJP, It's a bunch of small narratives localized to 3-5 seats in different regions which proved the catalyst.
There seems to exist a parallel network of information dissemination. Almost every anti-BJP guy is upto date with whatever bs cong+ peddles. They even predicted less than 250 seats for BJP.
No way these frogs in the well can be this wise. Some one feeding them this info. I am not pointing my finger at that german ytber. He is just puppet. He doesn't have this capacity.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by dsreedhar »

[/quote]
There seems to exist a parallel network of information dissemination. Almost every anti-BJP guy is upto date with whatever bs cong+ peddles. They even predicted less than 250 seats for BJP.
[/quote]
That's interesting. One of my college friends precisely predicted 240 seats for BJP. He was correct on KA and TG election results and numbers. He is a big time Congress supporter and also very good at numbers and stats.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Cyrano »

Bhai log, saw someone comment on yt recently - can't recall by whom, that the core strengths of dharmics and BJP supporters is to first look INWARDS and do atma vimarsha, criticize self, community, party workers, leaders, policies etc etc during times of crisis FIRST, and only then start looking for explanations and causes outside. In the medium/long term this makes us rooted in reality and makes us stronger. We have seen more than enough ;) of this on BRF in the last couple of days.


Contrast this with adharmic reaction: they will first blame outside forces, no self critique, and play victim card. And destroy each other in the aftermath for left over scraps. We are and will be seeing this behaviour unfold in the Randi Alliance in the coming days.

Dharmo rakshati rakshitaha!

Don't lose hope, there is no reason to.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Jay »

SRajesh wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:16
I would say Two most needed states to be divided : UP and MH
UP three parts and the elections to be held 2026?? same for MH : Maratwada and Vidharbh
This will be the easiest and fastest way to lose the next election if that's the goal.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

I am not all well versed with present day UP.
How patriarchal is the rural society??
How many women candidate for the elections and how many won??
The reason for Smt Iraniji is because :
a. a women
b. foreigner
c. English speaking Gori-mem ( as certian patriachal societies label educated working women)
Is it fair to say we are still a : fractious, argumentative, casteist, patriarchal society running after everthing fair and lovely and with a constant yearn for Western approval of our every action??
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

Jay wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:55
SRajesh wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:16
I would say Two most needed states to be divided : UP and MH
UP three parts and the elections to be held 2026?? same for MH : Maratwada and Vidharbh
This will be the easiest and fastest way to lose the next election if that's the goal.
Jayji explain why
Has there not been a demand for Vidarbha for a long time
What about UP : poorvachal and western UP
Even Smt Mayavathi was game for such a proposal
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

What has happend with Telangana, Jharkhand, Chattisgrah, Andhra, or going back a bit Meghalaya-Assam
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by KL Dubey »

A_Gupta wrote: 05 Jun 2024 18:06 I will say this only once and not argue about it.

As noted even by Ambedkar in the early 40s.....

When divide and rule is the universal formula that works in India, then that is the strategy that needs to be followed. For that, Hindus have to play the long game.
No argument here, but three points to add:

- Yes, there are divisions in the green society galore. However, the phenomenon of block voting brings them together due to diktat. The diktat is usually not broadcast in a visible manner, usually it is communicated far and wide through informal channels to every person. Intimidation and dire threats of social/economic/religious ostracization, and physical harm, are used to keep the "sheep" in line. Individuals don't spontaneously decide to vote for one or two parties.

- We need to understand that trying to divide the average green guys on the street will be non-productive. The diktat apparatus cannot be broken by simple divide and rule. The goal has to be to go after the coercive tools (goons, money power, sharia enforcement) and the elite that possesses these tools. Any divide and rule tactics must be directed there. At the moment, dismantling this coercive infrastructure wholesale seems the need of the day irrespective of any sect or group identities.

- As for Hindoo consolidation: Modi and Shah have been able to cobble together a reasonable consolidation using constructive (not coercive) tools. We should keep supporting this. That being said, further consolidation is desirable, for which there is no option but for some kind of "organized religion" similar to the greens and the X-men. This is rather antithetical to sanatana dharma. One possible way to foster that is to liberate the temples from state control and let them organize the society in and around their areas. However, introducing coercive elements into this will be a downfall and is not part of dharma.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

SRajesh wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:56 I am not all well versed with present day UP.
How patriarchal is the rural society??
How many women candidate for the elections and how many won??
The reason for Smt Iraniji is because :
a. a women
b. foreigner
c. English speaking Gori-mem ( as certian patriachal societies label educated working women)
Is it fair to say we are still a : fractious, argumentative, casteist, patriarchal society running after everthing fair and lovely and with a constant yearn for Western approval of our every action??
I worked in rural Amethi 22 years ago. At that time my partner was a lady, who despite being dressed in traditional salwar-kamiz, would not be answered by men. They would look at me to answer her questions sometimes. And at the other end, we came across a big wholesaler, who was a Gandhi family guy, who was trying to hit up on her in front of me. But two decades is a long time, maybe things have changed dramatically.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vijayk »

Ujjwal Rai @UjjwalR64060803


BLOs in UP willingly didn't added voters name and they didn't distributed voting slips.

People were under impression that they can't vote as there is no voting slips.

BLOs indirectly prevented voting in BJP strong regions.

Most of the BLOs are from Yadav or such communities.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by sidp »

vijayk wrote: 05 Jun 2024 21:29 Ujjwal Rai @UjjwalR64060803


BLOs in UP willingly didn't added voters name and they didn't distributed voting slips.

People were under impression that they can't vote as there is no voting slips.

BLOs indirectly prevented voting in BJP strong regions.

Most of the BLOs are from Yadav or such communities.
I wonder what local BJP karyakartas were doing. They should have knocked at every supporters home.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by bala »

vijayk wrote:BJP won
7 seats with difference of 200 votes.
23 seats with difference of 500 votes
49 seats with difference of 1000 votes
86 seats with difference of 2000 votes.
This clearly shows the voter apathy for not going to the polls and casting their vote. There is a need to activate the BJP voters to go to the polling booth and vote (hugely important). The opposition has been giving cash to their voter base people to go and cast their vote at the polling booth.

I know in the South, the dravida base is enticed with all kinds of goodies to go and vote at polling booth.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by sanman »

Re-districting is commonly used by right-wing Republicans in USA. Why can't righties in India do this too?

Set up the voting districts to maximize success.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Sachin »

A few random observations.
1. This time around did BJP even release a formal election manifesto? If any one has seen it please share a link. Any kind of show casing on what has been done, and what is planned for next five years?
2. The Congress kept their cards close to their heart, and released a proper manifesto during the start of the campaign. It may be divisive and crush India; but still it was a manifesto and plan.
3. I don't think Shri. Pappu Ghandi or his Indian chamchas have the brains to do it; but this time they had identified all right issues to exploit. The Abki baar 400 paar was readily used to prove people that BJP may bring in lots of unpleasent changes. BJP on the other hand had nothing to offer if they were allowed Abki baar 400 paar.
4. Average Indians still fall for easy or free stuff. Even middle-class people with reasonable income expect some benefits (even a reduced tax rate). Nothing was offered. Nor was there any show on what was earlier given and who all benefited (this was done by BJP in 2019 elections). If BJP expected every one to see & believe, many of the people are not smart to do that or would take it for granted.
5. I get a feeling that BJP took the whole election very lightly. States like KA perhaps worked harder, because of the let down/humiliation they faced during state elections. And that has shown results (INC is just 9 MPs in KA).
6. The incessant raids by enforcement agencies did give a suspicion that it was political vendetta. Again, it could have changed if there were convictions (or at least charge sheets filed) after these raids. Only the legal action against AAP seems to be having some strong legal ground (and Ghoongro Seth is back in prison, and Sisodia is there for nearly a year and a half).
7. The campaigning by Modi; which was more on religious lines at least made me uncomfortable. It gave a feeling that he had nothing else to offer. A clear messaging on what he plans to do with the reservation system, how he plans to make sure it reaches the deserving SC/ST people only all could have been explained earlier. His rhetoric that "He will not allow Muslims to take SC/ST benefits", sounded very hollow.

All said and done; even with all these goof ups BJP should be luckly to get the 240 seats.

vera_k wrote:The stock market thinks Modi/NDA are forming the government. But Gandhi/INDIA haven't conceded the election yet. Today should tell.
The established norm is that President would invite the leader of the party with maximum MPs to for the government first. And this has to be the BJP. A no-confidence motion can be introduced in Lok Sabha only when the speaker allows it. So in the current situation the Speaker itself is yet to be identified. So all this gives some lee way for NDA to form up their strategy.
Cyrano wrote:Would some hints about freeing temples from state control and repeal of wakf act have helped the BJP consolidate enough hindu votes to win say 20-25 seats more?
After the recent elections, my thoughts are that all these temple & religious stuff are icing on the cake. An average Hindu is not religiously indoctrinated as abrahamics. So if it is a question about a large temple, or Rs. 3000 coming in free; most likely the Hindu would go for the immediate Lakshmi :). Along with tangible benefits, religious stuff can be introduced.
syam wrote:For example, building IIM won't fetch you votes even if it is good deed. You have to make it big deal to the general public. Make each student feel it. Make them remember your deed for all their life. It's because of you they got that education. (typical Congress MO).
+1. There is a reason by the Nehru-Ghandi rascals name any thing and every thing as some kind of Indira, Nehru, Rajiv schemes. The names are perpetually etched in the memories. Indian people are repeatedly drilled to believe that every thing came from Nehru-Ghandi gang. It is very similar of the Royalty of UK, who had their King's Own & Queen's own gimmicks.
putnanja wrote:The fact that he had to resort to naming muslims (for quotas, bringing up MMS talk , inheritance tax etc) shows that he knew things weren't looking good and was trying to get the people on his side.
The ramblings which Modi made during the last few rallies, actually seems to show his desperation. It also gave a picture that he had nothing original to sell, and was only targeting a specific group of people.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Jay »

SRajesh wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:59 What has happend with Telangana, Jharkhand, Chattisgrah, Andhra, or going back a bit Meghalaya-Assam
Rajesh ji, even when a state is bifurcated, there is no guarantee that BJP will benefit from this step. AP/TG bifurcation is a great example where congress bifurcated the state and was wiped off the electoral map at both the state and national level in the follow-up elections. If Maharashtra is bifurcated, BJP can kiss its prospects goodbye in MAHA, and in the newly created states the credit will go to the local leaders who demanded the new state. It will take 1-2 election cycles for things to even out and I'm not sure if BJP will like that prospect.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by williams »

With 300 seat support secured with independent seats. NDA can show 272 even without JDU and TDP.

However we need to forget about any more constitutional amendments and fixing the judiciary in the next five years.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by RCase »

I am finding it hard to ascribe the reasons for the UP outcome to be so topsy turvy and IMHO are red herrings:

1. Agniveer
2. Covid recovery
3. MNREGA
etc.

The above apply to other BIMARU states too, but the outcome was not so lopsided.

RaGa and SG initially were afraid to run from their bastion seats in UP, expecting defeats, with SG taking the Rajya Sabha route via Rajasthan. RaGa not having visited their family jagirs, except during the election time and still commanding a huge lead is puzzling.

My take is that UP pretty much votes based on minority religion and caste and the awe of the Nehru family (white skin worshipping syndrome); more than other states, which the INDI alliance was able to blatantly exploit. RaGa pretty much went about asking everyone their caste and promising increased quota system and freebies.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

Sachinji
The last three elections I have seen i get a feeling that BJP at times falls prey to its own Hubris and complacency : as if We are hIndu party and who else will they vote for.
NaMo generally careful but made some silly mistakes : Ghuspati in second round then giving an expianation not muslims.
He has come out as reactive/combative leader than one who set an agenda.
Look at the tempo following : mouth ka saudagar and Gujurat elections, Chaiwallah jab 2014, neech admi and 2019 or chowkidar chor and 2019
This time around there was no direct name calling except for fascist government, Constitution and back to Mandal type calling card(re affirmative action)
The rural voter as you said will resonate with that rather viksit Bharat in 2047. He will say who knows I might be gone by then I want things now as we say in my vernacular language Gundu Chandu Tundu (roughly translated drinks, philandering and eating kebabs) :rotfl:
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by williams »

I also need to mention, that in 2004 Con party won only 145 seats and even UPA got only 218. The rest of the support came from commies/SP/BSP. In 2009 Congis got 206 and UPA got 262. If they can set back Bharat by a decade with that kind of number, NDA can surely make a lot more progress with the current numbers.
Deans
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

vijayk wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:02
BJP won
7 seats with difference of 200 votes.
23 seats with difference of 500 votes
49 seats with difference of 1000 votes
86 seats with difference of 2000 votes.
U.P. This celebration of victory of Modi-Yogi will not happen again because by the next assembly elections of 2027, crores of Muslim youth will become new voters, then BJP will not be able to win these 165 seats with small margin (that too because of Owaisi). It is certain that an anti-Hindu government will be formed in 2027, and those 40 percent Hindus who do not vote will be responsible for it.
https://x.com/SortedEagle/status/1798354059080171872
This is indeed what happened in several seats this time.
Another way to look at it - BJP lost 4 seats in UP with a margin of less than 5000 votes. Even a little bit of extra enthu among workers, or a
1% higher Hindu turnout and they would have won.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

The NDA won 9 seats with a margin of less than 5000 votes. If these were won by INDIA - which was possible, if they had more confidence in
themselves, INDIA would have had more seats than BJP. N+N could then cross over to INDIA and its game over. This was a near thing.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

RCase wrote: 05 Jun 2024 22:06 I am finding it hard to ascribe the reasons for the UP outcome to be so topsy turvy and IMHO are red herrings:

1. Agniveer
2. Covid recovery
3. MNREGA
etc.

The above apply to other BIMARU states too, but the outcome was not so lopsided.

RaGa and SG initially were afraid to run from their bastion seats in UP, expecting defeats, with SG taking the Rajya Sabha route via Rajasthan. RaGa not having visited their family jagirs, except during the election time and still commanding a huge lead is puzzling.

My take is that UP pretty much votes based on minority religion and caste and the awe of the Nehru family (white skin worshipping syndrome); more than other states, which the INDI alliance was able to blatantly exploit. RaGa pretty much went about asking everyone their caste and promising increased quota system and freebies.



RCase ji,

Its not so puzzling after all

The opposition and the supportive ecosystem – which includes foreign press, domestic YouTube warriors, academics, activists, and all sorts of foreign outfits trying to affect narratives through modern tools like AI – have tasted blood as their strategy definitely worked in Uttar Pradesh.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vimal »

^^ Nehrus were from Allahabad (now Prayagraj) UP (or at least they were till Motilal Nehru). So there is a connection. It’s still steeped in caste lines.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

Jay wrote: 05 Jun 2024 21:57
SRajesh wrote: 05 Jun 2024 20:59
It will take 1-2 election cycles for things to even out and I'm not sure if BJP will like that prospect.
Saar
Exactly see they are back in Telangana. Wait for CBN loot and then they will be back in AP as well.
A proactive approach with friendly local satrap will gain you enough foothold
MH if both SS factions are brought together or a MNS + Eknath for Marathwada and NCP Ajit (once Sharadji just gives up) would be a good one for Vidarbha or vice-versa.
UP is humoungous and one cannot let a repeat in 2029
80+ i dont how more added after delimitation will be a big gamble.
Smaller state much more manageable
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

Deans wrote: 05 Jun 2024 22:15 The NDA won 9 seats with a margin of less than 5000 votes. If these were won by INDIA - which was possible, if they had more confidence in
themselves, INDIA would have had more seats than BJP. N+N could then cross over to INDIA and its game over. This was a near thing.


Deans ji,

The indi alliance and their BIF pals are not done yet

This was just round 1, where all of them have tasted blood and that is why they are celebrating

The other rounds will follow very soon because they will strike viciously to hogtie India when the risky geopolitical situation hots up, and that is likely with the edgy set of circumstances prevailing in israel, iran, ukraine and also china. The amriki elections may well precipitate explosive circumstances if they need to divert attention

No one is going to wait out Modi's full third term.

The destabilizations will start sooner rather than later in the forms of protests, public unrests, riots and the already tested and verified "farmer's protests" and the dilli riots tool kits

They will try and manufacture a situation where N+N and some of the others may be forced to switch


Anyone who thinks that UP happened just by chance, I have a slightly used bridge in Bihar that I am willing to sell cheap.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

Pappu and his gang will get more brazen this term. They will create more chaos.

If 300+ strong single party Modi-Shah didn't do much against them, what will this weak version of it can do?

Next potential land mine is job crisis. We will see countless youth coming on roads and protesting against Modi government.

Other possible protests:
Farmers protest?
Kashmir movement?
NE movement?
Independent South movement?

Protests related to reservations?

Congress created present system. It's ironical that they are trying to fight their own system now. :lol:
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Sicanta »

SEBI hurriedly appoints the wife of the Gandhi family’s close aide as a key panel chief after the 2024 Lok Sabha election results

https://www.opindia.com/2024/06/sebi-hu ... nel-chief/

She and the individuals who sanctioned this move, both at SEBI and Finance Ministry, needed to be shunted out.

Sarkar unki magar system hamara hai
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Arima »

syam wrote: 05 Jun 2024 19:41 I am not believing this reservation removal kite.

I personally witnessed how much non-SC people in North hate reservations. If this rumor hit the mark, It would have united every non-SC hindu in North.

This is false narrative. I think INDI's are trying to hide something crucial here.They might have expended some serious assets in UP. Our guys shouldn't miss this.

Also keep an eye on Prashant Kishore. He was intentionally kept out of INDI circles in key places. He was angry with them.

Everything looks suspicious.
this looks much more complex topic, all talk of constitution will be changed, reservation loss is well directed at SC/ST and OBC population.
BJP should have countered it strongly the moment Raul started roaming around and giving press conference with Constitution hand book.

cong campaign main points where
Constitution protection
OBC
Revadi/Freebies

as per my opinion OBC topic was opened knowing fully delimitation which is going to come from 2026.
link OBC to census, talk of how many percent, so much of wealth, ambani adani and link to heriditary tax. (BJP counter was weak here, mangalsutra, Hindu wealth going to Muslim)
talk of PRIVATE SECTOR RESERVATION - huge carrot in front of OBC and SC/ST (who are delusional by reservation gone scenario)

Finally revadi of 1 lak a year and many more to lure and convert them to votes.

day in day out they have worked in SM on this and somehow BJP seem to have missed all this.


in near term census is going to be nemesis for Modi 3 govt.
opposition will ask for full caste census now which will open 90s mandal game all over again.
lot many may not realize SC/ST limit of 22.5% is 70s number and actual number is way to high. may be 26-28% i dont know. they need that much percent seats in Parliament and in all jobs, govt schemes.
throw in OBC based caste census, again number is much wider. reservation limit of 22.5 + 27% will be challenged by protests and battles on street.

:((
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Cyrano »

Bitter truth?

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