2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[Jay]

It will take 1-2 election cycles for things to even out and I'm not sure if BJP will like that prospect.

Saar
Exactly see they are back in Telangana. Wait for CBN loot and then they will be back in AP as well.

Ig BJP is prepared to lose 2029, and 2034 then Yes, they can risk it. Is a 'bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' for BJP? Congress has still not recovered in TG, and AP to what it's winnings were in 2004, and 2009. An instigator of a divide will always face the risk.

[Cyrano]

Some problems are internal to the party, some created by Randi Alliance, some systemic, some external and there will be more unpredictables.

Why would anyone want to be the PM of this ungovernable behemoth of a country?!

Politics is not for the faint hearted! Sigh...

[KL Dubey]

The indi alliance and their BIF pals are not done yet

This was just round 1, where all of them have tasted blood and that is why they are celebrating

The other rounds will follow very soon because they will strike viciously to hogtie India when the risky geopolitical situation hots up, and that is likely with the edgy set of circumstances prevailing in israel, iran, ukraine and also china. The amriki elections may well precipitate explosive circumstances if they need to divert attention

No one is going to wait out Modi's full third term.

The destabilizations will start sooner rather than later in the forms of protests, public unrests, riots and the already tested and verified "farmer's protests" and the dilli riots tool kits

They will try and manufacture a situation where N+N and some of the others may be forced to switch

These one-sided, overly dire predictions are not realistic IMO. If INDI tries destabilization of NDA, there are many weak links in INDI that can be destabilized twice as fast.

Patience with INDI antics has run out. Modi has been emphatically mentioning "root out corruption" in every speech. INDI had a "do or die" election. They failed.

We see venting and dire predictions on BRF in every election that goes even a little awry (or ends up in a BJP loss). Actual insights are precious few, some posters seem to have got the key factors right. At the end of the day, its BJP responsibility to ensure they identify the issues and work to mitigate them. If there is any party who can be trusted to course-correct (based on prior evidence), its the BJP.

Given the country is in the best possible hands, let's stay in a positive frame of mind and not personally react to every BIF pinprick or sensationalized media narrative. Things will bounce back after this "narrow escape"...!!

[disha]

There is too much Rona-Dhona on Modi did not do this or did this wrong or Shah did not do this or did that wrong and so on and so forth. Most of the discussion is internal rona-dhona. Some totally baseless.

Here are the places that BJP as a partyAdd lost seats:

Karnataka + Mah + Raj : 25 seats
UP : 35 seats
West Bengal : 10 Seats
Punjab + Haryana : 10 Seats

Add it all up and add it 240 and BJP on its own would have crossed 310+.

Biggest was the loss in UP with 35 seats. Seats like Amethi, Ayodhya were lost. BJP just made it through in Varanasi (yes!) and Meerut etc.

1. If you look at the places where BJP lost, it is either very feudalistic, very parochial and very backward regions. Yes, several parts of Haryana and Punjab are *backward* and *feudal* (look at child sex ratio)

2. Punjab and Haryana can be ruled out due to Khalistan + Farm law issue. Still, the voters there were dumb enough to go for divisive and revdi politics. They are fattened up on Malai and they want more malai.

3. West Bengal is so poor and so backward that anyone handing out a Rs. 1000/- dole per month is god (or goddess). Communists, Congress and MaoMata have cottoned on to that fact.

4. UP is derided as cow belt. In this election, that derision has some merit.

Let's take UP to start with (similar things can be mirrored in Raj_Ktka_Mah). The development of UP (Amethi, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Meerut etc) bypassed the feudal structure. The castes plugged into the feudal structure (Brahmins, Rajputs, Land owners, Yadavs etc) did not get around to take in their malai. Forget the malai part, they could not even get to show their authority on "getting things done".

Take for example a simple thing: A passport. Folks here can relate to it, that is why I bring it up. Imagine the boot licking and chai-paani to all and sundry to get a passport before? And nowadays, any one can get a passport. UPI Payment.

Take the UPI payment itself, all hafta vasooli is gone. Wait, if you are a lower middle class or lower class, you can actually get a Mudra loan and bypass the feudal setup.

Same goes for law and order. Thanks to Yogiji and his bull dozer.

Take the case of Amethi. It was a $hit0l3 before Smriti'ji stepped in. Lot of things like: setting up soil testing lab, fruit tree distribution, neem tree distribution, significant upgrade to gauriganj station (it was crap before), central school, girl college, petroleum university, dam construction on gomti river, upgrade to millitary school and lots and lots.

But then several intermediaries were cut out from the equation. Same goes in Ayodhya and Varanasi and several other places incl. meerut in UP. Sometimes the intermediaries are not in for any malai, they just want to gain influence by showing that they got the work done for a future scratch my back. In Varanasi redevelopment, lot of them had vested interest in using temples as toilets. All of those augean stables was cleaned by Modi.

In Rajasthan, it is even worse. The feudal society is so entrenched that it will take a generation or more to come out. Or may never come out.

On top of it, Irani, Modi and Shah are outsiders. Rank outsiders. Anyway, the intermediary class of people thought they will give a hair cut to Modi and Shah. That is why they sabotaged the elections. They thought they will teach some lesson by doing a minor hair cut*. But what happened, they got their own minor chopped. Look at Ayodhya. Lord Ram will never forgive them. Not in this life and not in next. Since they obstructed the momentum of upliftment of several crores of people. That is a karma they will pay and they will blame others for it.

So people trying to bring an objective analysis of this manifesto or that, really need to look at ground reality. Point is, Hindu voters are tactically smart, but strategically stupid.

And as pointed out, Modi does not have to pick up any Hindu cause from now onwards. Likes of J. Sai Deepak and Anand R can go and suck their thumbs. Look what Ayodhya did. Here is a person (Modi) who toiled so hard to bring Lord Ram home from a tent and what did Ayodhya do? Voted for the party that rained bullets on them.

* I felt that there will be sabotaging of elections, particularly in UP and in Ayodhya and Varanasi. That is, to teach a lesson to Modi-Shah and not become overconfident! I dismissed it as a one-off rant. Got distracted by the useless Rajput noise in N. Gujarat (they needed a reason to rant).

PS: The stupidity of voters need to be called out. So let's not hide behind the mithya of voters are smart and intelligent and wise. Sometimes they get the tactical and strategic challenge and sometimes they do not. Today, I am seeing people from UP realizing, "Oh what have we done!".

[vijayk]

Any phasewise analysis of results?

[disha]

The indi alliance and their BIF pals are not done yet

Chetak Saar, too much dhoti shivering. Dotty alliance itself is a very lose conglomeration. Nobody believes that they can stick together. And within that CONgoons are mostly Kerala+TN+Mah+Raj+Telangana party.

It can be easily split.

[disha]

Patience with INDI antics has run out. Modi has been emphatically mentioning "root out corruption" in every speech. INDI had a "do or die" election. They failed.

This is the last hurrah for MaoMata, DMK & CONgoons. This elections have locked Pappu as the great leader in CONgoon. The only one who came out of this with flying colours is Tonti Chor. Hats off to him for running a remarkable campaign.

In UP elections, things will shift. UP elections will be back to caste equations.

[disha]

Any phasewise analysis of results?

More than that, do the correlation of child sex ratio and the constituency and then correlate it with win of INC (or any dynastic party) or not. Add in other economic and social indicators for backwardness.

Do not get surprised if that constituency has bad child sex ratio and is also economically backward and also has other parameters for backwardness (like low education in girl child, below average health outcomes etc).

You can do that by going through NIHFW data and then election data. Backward constituencies vote overwhelming for dynastic parties. TN and Kerala can seem aberrations, but there check for female empowerment (Bihar has better female empowerment than Kerala, quantitatively seen in female suicide rates. Go figure).

[chetak]

The indi alliance and their BIF pals are not done yet

Chetak Saar, too much dhoti shivering. Dotty alliance itself is a very lose conglomeration. Nobody believes that they can stick together. And within that CONgoons are mostly Kerala+TN+Mah+Raj+Telangana party.

It can be easily split.

disha ji,


It's not dhoti shiver

I tell you this sadly, and hope that it does not happen, but it will, so just wait and watch

The agenda drivers are not in India but their puppets are and this has been true since before 1947

[vimal]

Chetak Saar, too much dhoti shivering. Dotty alliance itself is a very lose conglomeration. Nobody believes that they can stick together. And within that CONgoons are mostly Kerala+TN+Mah+Raj+Telangana party.

It can be easily split.

disha ji,


It's not dhoti shiver

I tell you this sadly, and hope that it does not happen, but it will, so just wait and watch

The agenda drivers are not in India but their puppets are and this has been true since before 1947

Biggest Agenda master is today called the Father of the nation. SMH

[S_Madhukar]

Folks who are blaming petty people of Ayodhya should ask who were the karsevaks that were martyred there, were they locals ? Or why it took 500 years and what did locals do about it. Fact is most of our Janata is petty, poor and less enlightened plus that area has seen a lot of Nawabs and Sultans. We get swayed by the tears of the faithful and rightly so but fact is our freedoms have been protected by the colossal sacrifices of a few ! If you don’t give your blood and sweat , you don’t cherish it

[Vayutuvan]

I also need to mention, that in 2004 Con party won only 145 seats and even UPA got only 218. The rest of the support came from commies/SP/BSP. In 2009 Congis got 206 and UPA got 262. If they can set back Bharat by a decade with that kind of number, NDA can surely make a lot more progress with the current numbers.

Being constructive is a lot harder than being destructive in addition to looting the exchequer to fill one's swiss bank accounts.

[Vayutuvan]

With 300 seat support secured with independent seats. NDA can show 272 even without JDU and TDP.

However we need to forget about any more constitutional amendments and fixing the judiciary in the next five years.

The final figures of NDA (with and without TDP & JDU):

- BJP: 240
- Shiv Sena: 7
- LJP: 5
- JDS: 2
- RLD: 2
- Jansena: 2
- UPPL: 1
- HAM: 1
- ZPM: 1
- SKM: 1
- Apna Dal: 1
- AGP: 1
- AJSU: 1
- NCP: 1
- YSRCP (if TDP ditches): 4
- Independent (Ladakh & Daman&Diu): 2

NDA: 272 (without JDU & TDP)

NDA with TDP & JDU: 268 (without YSRCP) + 12 + 16 = 296 seats.

[A_Gupta]

Per Ajeet Bharti, the renovations at Ayodhya and Kashi were at the cost of a lot of poor people who never received their due compensation; and this is in part why the BJP lost in Ayodhya and PM Modi had a greatly decreased victory margin in Kashi.

He predicts matters can get even worse with other such modernization-of-places-of-pilgrimmage projects.

https://www.youtube.com/live/3Abb2ayJ6n ... sVMM1Ocgg8

[RCase]

BJP should manufacture protests against the INDI alliance and tie them down. Have some of the people go and ask for their Rs. 8000 per month as they had voted for them. Increase the crescendo that they should fulfil this from their MPLAD or party funds. Else call them out as liars for making outlandish promises just to get their votes.

I am sure there can be a ton of issues that can tie them down with street power.

[rajkumar]

Honestly Analysis of BJP's failure

[vimal]

Per Ajeet Bharti, the renovations at Ayodhya and Kashi were at the cost of a lot of poor people who never received their due compensation; and this is in part why the BJP lost in Ayodhya and PM Modi had a greatly decreased victory margin in Kashi.

He predicts matters can get even worse with other such modernization-of-places-of-pilgrimmage projects.

https://www.youtube.com/live/3Abb2ayJ6n ... sVMM1Ocgg8

There was no such thing at Amethi and yet Smriti Irani lost. Whoever got the caste equations right, won! How can the same set of people vote for Yogi and not for Modi within a few months?

Ram temple has been rushed for sure to meet the 2024 deadline so such things are natural. The biggest beneficiary for these have been the peacefuls.

[Vayutuvan]


The Jaipur Dialogues
@JaipurDialogues
·
14h

Sources say TDP is negotiating for the position of Speaker, Education Ministry, Health Ministry & MOS for Finance.

Tough times for Modiji and Amit Shah in the negotiations phase!

[venkat_kv]

Connected with few relatives in UP

Caste based politics & voting
Agniveer is bad scheme because people look at army to give jobs
Bad ticket distribution
Modi became pretty arrogant so some opposition will keep him in check
Degree of complacency in BJP

But mainly caste based voting did BJP. No mention of Yogi vs Modi angle

Sumeet Ji, the caste based voting is what was caused by Yogi vs Modi tussle, atleast thats what the opposition and their soros media has tried to spread.
After the results came out even Sanjay Dixit of Jaipur Dialogues was saying that the entire belt of seats that went to SP was a "savarn" belt and the BJP took them for granted where Yogis list was put aside. Somehow all of this wasn't highlighted before or during the elction or in the exit polls by the jaipur dialogues team. Only with results not coming in as per what we expected the blame game seems to have started.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL1MtSqInJQ

Bizarre scenes unfolded at the Congress office in Lucknow as Muslim women gathered to claim the 'promised' cash dole from Rahul Gandhi's 'Khata Khat' guarantee. Following a recent surge in support, women crowded the office, demanding the ₹1 lakh cash guarantee, only to be left high and dry. Rahul Gandhi's guarantee cards were handed out by Congress workers, who asked the women to return in a few days. After the poll results, the unexpected influx of women at the Congress office has posed a major dilemma for the party.

[A_Gupta]

BJP should manufacture protests against the INDI alliance and tie them down. Have some of the people go and ask for their Rs. 8000 per month as they had voted for them. Increase the crescendo that they should fulfil this from their MPLAD or party funds. Else call them out as liars for making outlandish promises just to get their votes.

I am sure there can be a ton of issues that can tie them down with street power.

No need for the BJP to do anything. Muslim women have already descended on the Congress office in Lucknow to sign up for the scheme. See the video above. Congress = con game.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ @venkat_kv. the way I heard it put by a more sophisticated commentator, without bringing caste or even Yogi into it is that after the candidate list came out the local BJP karyakartas and RSS sevaks asked in 36 cases in UP for the candidates to be replaced but they were paid no heed.

[venkat_kv]

The astrologer PVNR seems like a nice guy, I watched a few of his videos, he was quite confident predicting 300+ for BJP and 350-380 for NDA. He should simply say he got it wrong and go back, redo the math and improve instead of giving some tortuous and unconvincing explanations.

Cyrano Saar,
the astrologer PVNR did mention in one of the videos that was made (or i had watched it after the bengal election in 2021) where he did mention that after bengal elections modi & shah will face existential crisis within their party also (talks about replacing them etc would come) and he said if they weather it they will come and do some work and come back in 2024 with less majority than 2019. less majority was seen still as a majority for the BJP itself and not what we have currently. And there was quite a bit of storm on the way BJP did perform in Bengal elections and the manner it left it cadres in the lurch in the violence aftermath.

But having said, that he did say that Jagan was going to come back with thin majority in 2024 and then after that never return to power. So his predictions do have some hit and miss i think.

[venkat_kv]

Yup its States where Voting % is down which has caused some concerns, heat wave combined with complacency, but wow the Muslim population of India has shown real determination while the general population has been very laid back.

I'm a data guy, so expect to see a lot of posts like this:

The overall drop in voter turnout was just 1.6%
The biggest drop in turnout among the big states was Kerala (- 6.7%) where BJP was not in the contest in most seats.
Raj also dropped 4.8% but turnout was higher in the seats BJP lost.
In MP & Gujarat (-4.3%) which BJP won comfortably.
TN (-2.5%) BJP was not in the race.
WB (-2.3%) so Muslims voted in lower numbers ?
Turnout was higher in Andhra, Telengana and Odisha, where the BJP gained.

BJP did not lose from lower turnout,

Deans Saar,
there is a saying in telugu which roughly translates as " there a 1000 reasons for Karna's death(in the mahabharata with each contributing to his final demise). the election could also be the same.
Higher turnout could mean generally replacement of the incumbent. That was seen in AP for sure.

in all of your examples, where there was a win for Indi alliance or even the BJP they did have lower turnout. so it didn't affect the results (as a genral rule of thumb).
But in the seats where BJP has had setbacks the voter turnout was higher, could be complacency/lethargy in the traditional BJP voter that this is in the bag and the anti BJP vote coming out in droves to quote unquote protect constitution and minorities and also have a khatakhat in their accounts while they are at it. maybe with normal or higher voter turnout atleast some of the seats would have had a different result.

[NRao]

Fun fact.

https://x.com/itswpceo/status/1798205655628894608

Population

India: 1.45 billion
Mexico: 130 million

Election candidates killed

India: 0
Mexico: 37

Democracy Index
India Rank: 104
Mexico Rank: 90

Who's Behind the Index?

[venkat_kv]

I think they, like many right wing YT channels, created a echo chamber where they mostly talk among themselves and repeat, validate, support each others data. Opposing ideas, pointers, opinions are not entertained. Maybe it influenced them not to look at some ground level realities.

It works the other way too. If someone like RR tells us what's wrong with the economy, he's lambasted as a Cong stooge. But if we discount his
political views, there is not only merit in a lot of what he says, I doubt the people advising the PM, in the PMO are better qualified. I'm not sure if
the govt was capable of listening to alternate views, weather on DeMo, Agnipath or farm laws.

For e.g. on DeMo, it was pointed out by RR and others that very little of our black money was in the form of cash. It as much better to have strongly
implemented the Benami assets law - which the Govt did enact, but enforced less than half heartedly. I have no idea what was the tax penalty under
DoMo, or the amount recovered under the new Benami law, because the govt stopped mentioning either of them after a year.

Deans Saar,
RRR was/is a congi stooge. His actions and words indicate the same. i mean it was under his watch that Indian banks accumulated NPA of gigantic proportions. Where was his honesty then? did he do anything to address it until it was too big and too late.

His recent interviews saying that if india reaches 4.5% growth it would be a miracle. A supposed history major and a low profile hardworking Nirmala tai as she is pejoratively called has taken his predictions to cleaner. Still there is no introspection from this self styled economist. he is a perfect example of - what happens when you study - you get a degree and not knowledge.

I think demo was hashed quite a few times in BRF and the major reason it has not yielded black money is the banks allowed them to be converted contravening the established norms, there have been cases with co-operative banks suddenly coming in flush with money after demo though with barely any accountability. Even with all that there were more income tax info that was gleamed out.
It was ramana Saar i think who said for every note printed in india there was another 1.5 of the same value in circulation with no accountability.

Pakistan pumping the same and funding protests in kashmir and what not and politicians dealing with cash distribution during elections of which a part is almost always black earlier. All of it went kaput and eventually it also helped adopt the digital revolution that came with covid.

the same can be said about Suswa and his rantings about being smarter than everyone else. These guys are like broken clocks of doom predictions that might be right twice a day, but the rest of the time are wrong. I would say listening to them is waste of time, rather try to work with people who also come with solutions and are willing to work silently in the background.

[Jay]


The Jaipur Dialogues
@JaipurDialogues
·
14h

Sources say TDP is negotiating for the position of Speaker, Education Ministry, Health Ministry & MOS for Finance.

Tough times for Modiji and Amit Shah in the negotiations phase!

If those are the starting positions for TDP, then it’s not a bad deal. I don’t mind Modi/Shah to get their elbows greasy if they have to.

[uddu]

Video: Women line up at UP Congress office for 'guarantee card' of Rs 1 lakh
The Congress had distributed 'guarantee cards' to several households promising Rs 1 lakh every year to the woman head of every poor family.
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok ... 2024-06-05
https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1798288837191618578
Issuing a Guarantee card should be taken to the Election Commission and asked for annulling the election of 7 Congress candidates who won by promising money in exchange of the card issued to them by the party.
BJP must be aggressive in their approach. Rather than poaching opponents, there are many such ways through which BJP can be on the ground fighting.
After EC, it should be taken to court just after Modi govt is formed. Dynamic aggressive politics should be played by BJP rather than the Gandhian approach they are into. If BJP could force reelection in these 7 seats, it will be a big victory for them. Even if it plays out in the media, its a big win in the perception battle.

[vijayk]

I think they have to hit the road in Karnataka, Telangana, HP. Ask them where is 8500? 8500?

This party has become conference room party.

[venkat_kv]

"Deans" -

^^Interesting insights. What was the MNREGA and rural distress situation in Bihar and MP, where NDA did well ? Similar to Eastern UP or much better ? Providing the context would be more convincing. To me, the wipeout in Eastern UP is because of poor election management. Surrounding areas of BH, MP, CH, etc voted quite solidly for NDA.

I agree in general about taking in outsiders, and "breaking parties", but this has to be done at some point and it will/may have a short-term consequence to bear. Seems the same thing in RJ - the BJP finally kicked the Raje habit and she seems to have undermined the party this time. You can refute my hypothesis if you like.

In MH, Charade seems to have hatched the scheme to destabilize a solid NDA and made the gullible Thakre set in motion these events. At some point you have to deal with this. The other option was to just settle in for long haul and let the "MVA" have a field day with their combined vote share.

Again, one has to consider both sides of the coin. Is it not possible that if NCP and SS were left intact, the NDA would have less than 10 seats in LS 2024?

Dubeyji, I have to do a deep dive into data, but my first thoughts:

In RAJ & CG assembly elections, covid distress cost the ruling party in that state. MP held, partly because the Cong govt had fallen before that
and because (my impression) Shivraj Singh was doing a good job, (meeting reduced expectations).
In UP, Raj and Haryana this time the BJP was ruling in the state. In Bihar it was perceived to be a MGB govt.
Again, MP held its vote share, which is why I keep bringing it up. If Modi lets Shivraj fade into obscurity at the Centre, it will answer my
hypothesis about Modiji.

MP's GDP in 2022-23 grew more than UP (7.1 vs. 5.8%). India was 7%.

I agree that without splitting SS and NCP, the BJP would have got fewer seats in MAH (not more than 5). My point is why lose the SS in the first
place. Fadnavis was a nobody selected by the BJP, they should not have lost their closest ally because wanted to serve a full term as CM.

Sorry deans Saar,
But i think you have some info incomplete. SAD was with the BJP on the farm laws initially, Harsimrat Kaur Badal managed the agricultural ministry and even did press conference supporting the farm laws saying they will help. Only after farmer unions back in punjab protested did SAD reverse course and took a hard stance to leaving the NDA.
Modi or Amit Shah didn't run them out, by the time elections have come SAD is a spent force and BJP was/is trying to strike out on its own, maybe there was a cost benefit analysis that told them that they will do better in the long run in Punjab if they go it alone.
In Maha, it was uddhav who walked out of the alliance saying he was promised 2.5 years when nobody heard anything during campaigning. Every body voted for fadnavis who had done a decent job and BJP had a better strike rate in the vidhan sabha elections. After prashant kishore met Uddhav and then pawar had a meeting all of these demands cropped up.Sharad pawar and Ajit Pawar played Fadnavis for a fool and then formed the MVA govt.

This forum is filled with posts about how BJP didn't do anything as allies betrayed them and the people of maha were suffering. They had higest number of covid cases - but nobody pointed at uddhav as he was now secular, retired naval person was beaten up for speaking up against govt. With Eknath Shinde the BJP just repaid Uddhav back in the same coin.

And Shivraj Singh tenure in MP was seen lack luster at the end, but the implosion of congress in the state with the ladli behna scheme that was apparently devised by the BJP poll committee helped them win a good margin of seats.

[Deans]

Deans Saar,
RRR was/is a congi stooge. His actions and words indicate the same. i mean it was under his watch that Indian banks accumulated NPA of gigantic proportions. Where was his honesty then? did he do anything to address it until it was too big and too late.

His recent interviews saying that if india reaches 4.5% growth it would be a miracle. A supposed history major and a low profile hardworking Nirmala tai as she is pejoratively called has taken his predictions to cleaner. Still there is no introspection from this self styled economist. he is a perfect example of - what happens when you study - you get a degree and not knowledge.

I think demo was hashed quite a few times in BRF and the major reason it has not yielded black money is the banks allowed them to be converted contravening the established norms, there have been cases with co-operative banks suddenly coming in flush with money after demo though with barely any accountability. Even with all that there were more income tax info that was gleamed out.
It was ramana Saar i think who said for every note printed in india there was another 1.5 of the same value in circulation with no accountability.

Pakistan pumping the same and funding protests in kashmir and what not and politicians dealing with cash distribution during elections of which a part is almost always black earlier. All of it went kaput and eventually it also helped adopt the digital revolution that came with covid.

the same can be said about Suswa and his rantings about being smarter than everyone else. These guys are like broken clocks of doom predictions that might be right twice a day, but the rest of the time are wrong. I would say listening to them is waste of time, rather try to work with people who also come with solutions and are willing to work silently in the background.

On RR's political orientation, I am with you. It is not just undesirable for any `Independent' Central bank head to express political views, it is
worse when he takes pot shots at the Govt, for things unrelated his mandate. Apart from what you say, the whole IBC law was delayed because
the RBI was uncooperative in sharing data on defaulters. However, I submit that the political views became more strident once he was back to
being a prof and angling for a role in a new UPA admin.
As RBI gov, his view on DeMo was that most black assets are held in other forms and that people will find ways to account for their black assets
held in cash. He was right on that. My posts on DeMo at the time were very supportive of the govt, except for the lack of results in increasing
tax collection from that black money.

[Deans]

Sorry deans Saar,
But i think you have some info incomplete. SAD was with the BJP on the farm laws initially, Harsimrat Kaur Badal managed the agricultural ministry and even did press conference supporting the farm laws saying they will help. Only after farmer unions back in punjab protested did SAD reverse course and took a hard stance to leaving the NDA.
Modi or Amit Shah didn't run them out, by the time elections have come SAD is a spent force and BJP was/is trying to strike out on its own, maybe there was a cost benefit analysis that told them that they will do better in the long run in Punjab if they go it alone.
In Maha, it was uddhav who walked out of the alliance saying he was promised 2.5 years when nobody heard anything during campaigning. Every body voted for fadnavis who had done a decent job and BJP had a better strike rate in the vidhan sabha elections. After prashant kishore met Uddhav and then pawar had a meeting all of these demands cropped up.Sharad pawar and Ajit Pawar played Fadnavis for a fool and then formed the MVA govt.

Sir, I take your point that the allies adopted a blackmailing attitude. My view is that the allies were needed to win seats and it was necessary for
BJP to accommodate them to do it. If it was left to the states to adopt the farm laws, they would have retained SAD and had the farm laws adopted
in more cooperative states. In Maharashtra, DF was appointed by the party leadership. He had been CM for 7.5 years, why not compromise and let
UT be CM for 2.5 ? The voters might reward the BJP's large heartedness, instead of punishing them for splitting SS & NCP.
In TN too, I know BJP is playing a long game but I believe they should have made more efforts to retain AIADMK. it would have made a difference in 6-7 seats and prevented AIADMK from competing with DMK to see who can be more Anti-Centre and Anti Indic values.

[venkat_kv]

https://results.eci.gov.in/AcResultGenJ ... lt-S01.htm

AP assembly polling percentages:
TDP - 45.60%
YSRCP - 39.37%
BJP - 2.83%
INC - 1.72%
Others - 8.53%

JSP does have its own vote share but it's under others. Given BJP got 8 seats and JSP 21 seats, JSP must be around 2.5 times BJP which means:
JSP - 7%

Combine share of JSP and BJP, 9.83%.
Difference between TDP and YSRCP - 6.23% only despite the anti incumbency.

JSP is truly the king maker in AP. It was evident even in 2014 when when CBN showed his affection for Pawan Kalyan after winning the assembly.
BJP too can make a significant difference to TDP's fortunes if it sends its votes for YSRCP or even stops them from going to TDP.

CBN found out this the hard way in 2019. I don't think he will continue his shenanigans this time around.

It seems its Pawan Kalyan who convinced BJP to tie up with TDP. Pawan Kalyan must have been approached by CBN to do so. PK will be pi$$ed off if CBN misbehaves.

Added Later:

2019 Assembly Election Results:

Andhra Pradesh Election Results 2024 Vs 2019: The Tale Of Two Polls As TDP Return Looks Imminent

In 2019, the YSRCP won 151 of the 175 Assembly seats with a 49.95% vote share, while the TDP secured only 23 seats with 39.17% of the votes. The JSP, allied with the BSP and the Left, won one seat, garnering 5.53% of the votes. Neither the BJP nor the INC won any seats.

With anti incumbency in 2029, CBN needs a coalition.
Significantly JSP did not ally with TDP in 2019. Did BJP convince him not to?

actually hanumadu Saar,
the numbers are a bit more nuanced. BJP has about 3-3.5 % votes in total of their own, but most of them are concentrated in the Krishna guntur regions, same places TDP and Janasena vote banks are present.
In 2014 JSP wanted to contest elections but in the end decided to join TDP and BJP alliance for the good of the newly formed state of AP. Pawan kalyan didn't contest elections but campaigned extensively for TDP_BJP alliance.
The alliance split in 2018 after CBN had a falling out over the funds issue, (he agreed for the special funds instead of package, but wanted special package as YSRCP party with their media went to the people that special package would make every district of AP like hyderabad and people will not have to pay taxes. The central govt stopped funds after the tiff and were auditing everything given and CBN couldn't continue to pay anything to the electorate and most of the works running with central funds came to a grinding halt that CBN was showing as his.

Pawan kalyan (PK) decided to contest 2019 elections in this backdrop and his followers from the kaapu caste group deserted TDP along with a few brahmins and OBC's that traditionally vote TDP and BJP rank and file mostly voted for YSRCP to teach CBN a lesson.

In the aftermath of TDP decimation in 2019 elections the TDP leaning media came down heavily on BJP and modi and kept their abuse constantly that evm's are manipulated, modi personally helped jagan and YSRCP etc etc.

The BJP tried to cultivate pawan kalyan saying that he has a mass appeal and they can take his work/ speeches using their cadre and were working for 2-3 years. then PK was placed under quasi house arrest when he went to meet some of his supporters in Vizag and he came down heavily on YSRCP govt and that was probably Pawan Kalyan used street language and was in news for a week or 10 days. CBN came to meet him behind closed doors and since then both have an understanding to contest together to prevent anti incumbency votes from splitting. BJP was kept out of the loop as TDP and Naidu didn't want anything to do with them.

BJP couldn't care less as they felt Naidu has to come on their (BJP's) terms for an alliance. But after jagan arrested naidu on corruption charges, it was pawan kalyan who single handedly stood by TDP and BJP was pretty much neutral and they were pilloried for it by the TDP leaning media.

Eventually PK brought BJP and TDP as TDP needed the central BJP to prevent any electoral shenanigans during the elections and here we are ultimately.

The thing to watch will be the TDP leaning media which has already started that CBN can dictate terms as BJP doesn't have majority and should ask for special status, special package and special industrial corridor along with special funds for capital city. All of these for their support.

[Deans]

BJP won
7 seats with difference of 200 votes.
23 seats with difference of 500 votes
49 seats with difference of 1000 votes
86 seats with difference of 2000 votes.

This clearly shows the voter apathy for not going to the polls and casting their vote. There is a need to activate the BJP voters to go to the polling booth and vote (hugely important). The opposition has been giving cash to their voter base people to go and cast their vote at the polling booth.

I know in the South, the dravida base is enticed with all kinds of goodies to go and vote at polling booth.

The RSS and BJP Karyakartas vastly outnumber the workers of SP & Cong, with potentially more to spend.
If they cannot get people to vote, they have only themselves to blame.

[vijayk]

According to naddaji ... bjp doesn't rss any more

[venkat_kv]

There seems to exist a parallel network of information dissemination. Almost every anti-BJP guy is upto date with whatever bs cong+ peddles. They even predicted less than 250 seats for BJP.

That's interesting. One of my college friends precisely predicted 240 seats for BJP. He was correct on KA and TG election results and numbers. He is a big time Congress supporter and also very good at numbers and stats.

This is quite the find. The telangana congress for the vidhan sabha elections 6 months ago also predicted their number correctly. It could probably mean that Congress strategist Sunil kanugaolu guy is able to accurately get his models to work correctly and voter targeting done with it. After Karnataka electiosn i think there was an article that said that he was very very meticulous when it came to settings narratives and then sending targeted info to the concerned group (a la cambridge analytica was the thought that came to my mind when reading that article).

maybe BJP needs to refresh the election strategist and need to take some external help rather than running all of it inhouse?

[NRao]

[hanumadu]

According to naddaji ... bjp doesn't rss any more

From what I read, he said, BJP needed RSS before but are self sufficient now. He probably meant it in a good way and not arrogant or belittling RSS. I think he is doing RSS a favour and shielding them from both external and internal attacks. Remember, the first target of the Hindutva eco system for congress, jihadis, evanjehadis and left terrorists is RSS because they believe its the organisational strength of RSS that helps BJP in a great way to win the elections and also it's the RSS that resists conversion and does ghar wapsi.

By saying that BJP is not dependent on RSS anymore (may or may not be true), he is taking the heat off both RSS and BJP. We can do taqiya too, no?

[Pratyush]

^^^

I see the validity of the argument being made by Hanumandu. However, the point is, do the people on the ground see it?

If yes, then the attempt at taquia has failed. As the enemy would understand it as well.

If not, then you have failed totally and alienated one of the strongest force multipliers that you can have.

[KL Dubey]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL1MtSqInJQ

Bizarre scenes unfolded at the Congress office in Lucknow as Muslim women gathered to claim the 'promised' cash dole from Rahul Gandhi's 'Khata Khat' guarantee. Following a recent surge in support, women crowded the office, demanding the ₹1 lakh cash guarantee, only to be left high and dry. Rahul Gandhi's guarantee cards were handed out by Congress workers, who asked the women to return in a few days. After the poll results, the unexpected influx of women at the Congress office has posed a major dilemma for the party.

This is one time that Rahulbhai Chimanbhai Mehta's idea to extend right to recall to MPs, MLAs, etc (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_Recall_Party) could have been useful. At the moment UP only allows right to recall at the grassroots (panchayat) level.