2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Neela »

Sachin wrote: 06 Jun 2024 11:00 Missed it in my earlier long whine/post. This time around Congress had a very slick social media mechanism rolled out. Twitter was pretty much hijacked by INC handles. In fact social media was once sighted as the reason of thumping BJP victory in 2014 and 2019. Mauni Baba had his corruption scandals and INC did not have much social media presence. BJP utilized the social media to the hilt. But that same gusto was not seen this time. We must also know that; 25-30 years old who got influenced via social media of 2014 would now be 35-40 years old. What social media campaign worked in 2014 may now work now (example; Facebook is irrelevant now, Instagram is the in-thing).

All put down; BJP did not have a well thought out plan to face 2024 elections. Over confidence, too much reliance on Modi all took them down. As I said earlier, in places where BJP took a drubbing (KA) or was eager to make a strong push (AP, Orissa) they did a jolly good job.

If BJP needs to be in a strong position; I feel they should have a very good plan to:-
1. Handle demands of reservations (example; retain it, but make sure that only Hindu SC/ST are eligible, converts and religion wise reservation not allowed).
2. Alleviate fears of forward caste Hindus, or think about tax reductions for the huge Hindu middle class.
3. May sound evil; but come up with schemes which target Hindu poor, Hindu SC/ST communities and then Hindu middle class. This will help the United Specturm of Hindu votes to come back.
while I fully agree, we are , again, defending or playing in our own turf within our "borders". The fight has to be taken inside the minority groups. PLay one against the other. Favor one against the other. Rifts, splits, defection and create sieves for disenchanted to fall into Ghar Wapsi lap.
But I do feel there is a strong correlation between regaining economic might, self sufficiency, and pride in the civilization before we take this fight into the other turf.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Amber G. »

Another simple analysis ...
Historic Hat Trick: Historic Hat Trick ..

* After 10 years in power returns to take oath on June 9 with 240 seats, for the BJP (more than entire Opposition put together at 234).
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Neela »

ramana wrote: 07 Jun 2024 00:55 This NDA majority is needed for national security. Amit Shah just postponed the Chinese plans by ensuring stabiity.
Ramana-ji, The Chinese might is projection. Why would they endanger their *growing* stature with a war with India , especially when India really better prepared vs 1961.
The downside to China in case of a loss or stalemate is large - Philipines, Japan , VIetnam , Taiwan, Bhutan - all having border disputes, will push back harder.
China is better off taking on Taiwan now as the response cannot escalate beyond a point. The play seems to be stengthen the borders with bigger enemies first and then push on Taiwan.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by disha »

How do you remove a thorn? Use another one.

Here is the story that needs to be read and retold in full.

https://swarajyamag.com/north-east/how- ... is-citadel
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Sumeet »

A good video from First Post by Palki

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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by RCase »

Post results announcements, we have so many people mentioning the anger of the population of UP of various issues. OK. Let us assume this is a major contributing factor.

The question that needs to be asked is that all the psephologists, political pundits (across the political spectrum), TV anchors etc. (I am giving the astrologists a pass!) would have been able to pick up on this and predictions would have included caveats about the numbers in UP. It baffles me that ALL these guys who claim to have info from the ground have missed this by a mile. Previously, there was a band of exit poll predictions, depending on the political leanings of the organization. Something seems amiss about exit polls in general this time.

For e.g. the projections for TN where quite a few were optimistic of BJP's chances including Anamalai. But I did hear on PGurus, a political analyst who was spot on about the reality of Coimbatore and mentioned that it is highly unlikely that Annamalai would win and his analysis is pretty much spot on regarding the poll outcome across TN.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by A_Gupta »

@RCase, as far as UP goes, it seems the rot started when the candidates' list was announced. As far as I know, most psephologists had conducted their polls before that. I think it is a little here and a little there and that causes a mini-avalanche.

The other thing I am inferring is that most right-wing commentators don't honestly present negative news. That analysis on PGurus, I also saw, was an exception.

Added: I also wonder how much the psephologists' paymasters/financers showed an aversion to bad news. They probably think that by being "yes-men" they will gain favor with the government.

Oh, and Congress could not afford a decent psephologist, only a joker who like a broken clock is right on occasion.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Vayutuvan »

A_Gupta wrote: 07 Jun 2024 05:31 Added: I also wonder how much the psephologists' paymasters/financers showed an aversion to bad news. They probably think that by being "yes-men" they will gain favor with the government.
"Deep state"? I thought saaru, that you don't believe in DS.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

disha wrote: 06 Jun 2024 22:32 BJP IT cell needs to amp up its game. Amit Malviya is softie. Very softie.
It's not about his will or nature. This is pure skill game.

BJP IT cell right now, can't even make basic photoshop poster against Pappu gang. How many infographics they released since the election verdict came?
Congi IT Cell on other hand using deepfake tools, voice actors, professional film makers to create any hate content.

Emotions and ideology doesn't matter if you don't have basic skills to promote your party. I seen BJP IT cell folks stealing media edits and content from individual posters on X without giving the original posters any credit.
Arima wrote: 06 Jun 2024 18:39 toolkit may make her martyre. she should be suspended and arrested for such behaviour. make life meserable.
We wish 100 things to happen to her. But the state machinery (which is still with pappu) will make sure it will end in Pappu's favor.

--

INC taken new form now.

Earlier, it was INC - Indira. Then INC - Sonia. And now it is INC - Pappu.

INC - Pappu is much 'stronger' and dangerous than earlier versions. Cuz their ecosystem is desperate for its survival. They are putting every resource of theirs on the board.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by vimal »

^ INC P is remote controlled from foreign shores
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

Jay wrote: 06 Jun 2024 21:11
vijayk wrote: 06 Jun 2024 20:45
HARD FACT 1:
BJP RETAINED 208 SEATS OF THE 303 SEATS IT WON IN 2019
RETENTION RATE: 68%
TAKEAWAY: No intense anti-Incumbency against Modi and BJP.

HARD FACT 2:
Just 6 lakh votes across 33 seats could have secured BJP a majority.

Some of these, like Chandigarh, Hamirpur, Salempur, Dhaurahra, Dhule, Beed, Arambagh, Daman & Diu, were lost by BJP by a margin between 2000 and 8000 votes. TAKEAWAY: No intense pan-India anti-Incumbency wave against Modi and BJP.
100% agree on these two points. Usually, after 10 years the anti-incumbency vote should have been more and frankly I expected more. A little bit of over-confidence and being inflexible with core supporters took away the absolute majority which was totally within their grasp. Some course correction is definitely needed but I do not believe the doom and gloom post-mortem predictions blaming all and sundry.
Congress had the same 32% loss of incumbent MP's seats. So the anti incumbency was the same across the major parties. People were
dissatisfied with individual MP's more than their parties. Cong was no better than BJP in identifying the non performers.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

We need a separate thread to track Pappu's Anarchy from now on wards.
His antics are no longer funny. They are having actual harmful impact on us.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

This video is from Jalna, Maharashtra. This is how Congress workers fooled people through their door to door campaign -
"If made PM, Modi will stop the free housing scheme & free ration, change the constitution & scrap reservations."
Do note, they didn't utter a single word about their own promises. Their entire campaign was built only on lies & fooling gullible people!
Check the video on X - Link

They probably shared enough deepfake videos to create this fake perception. The whole campaign of Congi+ was carefully crafted. BJP really caught napping.

Another post about UP -
News is trickling in as to what happened in UP during the voting all of you should know

1. All Muslim voters were given a guarantee card signed by Rahul Gandhi that they would be given Rs 1 Lakh after the voting results . This was distributed by Congress/SP karyakartas. This explains how a person like Rajnath Singh won Luchnow constituency by just 75000 votes where his margin was expected to be more than 5 Lakh votes. Even PM won by just 1.5 Lakh votes wher he was expected to win by 10 Lakh votes and at one time during counting he was trailing by 6200 odd votes
By contrast Pappu won by 2.5 lakh votes in Rae Bareill y and Smriti Irani lost as did the BJP candidate in Ayoddhya . This diabolical plan was directed from abroad . Yesterday , there were long queues in lucknow of burqua clad women demanding the one lakh.

2. EC badly screwed up in another aspect . The poll booth Mitros who were appointed to tell voters which booth they should go to did not inform the voters and hence many could not find their name in the booth they went to . These mitros were bribed. This explains the lower than expected turnout. Many voters just did not go to the booths as they did not receive the slips in time on polling day
3. The lower caste voters amongst Hindus ( Dalits etc)were given a printed copy of first page of constitution with Ambedkar’s photo showing them that this guarantees them reservation which the BJP would change if they voted for BJP and they would be denied their benefits . The
Poor illiterate voters acted on this basis and voted against BJP

All this was discussed in BJP’s meeting yesterday . Yogi and BJP central leaders were stunned at the revelations. Action will follow as yogi ji is determined to address each finding discussed in the meeting.

VIA WTAPP
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Pratyush »

This is the second such campaign in India. The first time it was done in Tamil Nadu.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

BJP has got whopping 18.56% ALONE. Rise from 9.63% in 2029 & that too with SAD.

Understand its importance in backdrop of Farmers' Protests & know REALITY of those Protests.


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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

Pratyush wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:11 This is the second such campaign in India. The first time it was done in Tamil Nadu.
can you please share more on what happened in TN?

We been dissecting BJP side for last 3 days. It will be breath of fresh air if we shift on to analyzing cong+ success now.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Pratyush »

There were reports on the forum about the outright lies being shared on the social media by Stalin's party against OPS government. In the run up to the assembly elections.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

May be it was test run in safe environment before rolling it out at much bigger scale?

TN, Kerala, Punjab and WB. All became guinea pigs for BIF. They experiment there and use the successful models on whole India later.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Deans »

The results suggest that the BJP had no realistic chance of getting a single seat in TN. Whatever be the reason, this should have been known to the
state unit, particularly if Annamalai has a good connect with ground reality. The party took a view that it is better to go it alone and was therefore
perceived as a threat by BOTH the mainstream Dravidian parties. It would have been better for BJP to play the kind of role that Mayawati or Pawan Kalyan play - I have a loyal bloc of 10-15% of voters. If either of the 2 main parties in the state want to win, they have to talk to me. Retaining the
alliance with AIADMK, even with partial vote transfer, could have got NDA 10-12 seats.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by NRao »

chetak wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:18 BJP has got whopping 18.56% ALONE. Rise from 9.63% in 2029 & that too with SAD.

Understand its importance in backdrop of Farmers' Protests & know REALITY of those Protests.
The farmer's protest had nothing to do with any farmer in the Punjab.

There are many channels that have addressed this topic.

The farmer's protest was and is a Khalistani effort, supported by the West.

And, the "arrest" of Natwar ji, is directly related to this "protest".

The slapping of Kangana is directly related to this too. In fact, the slapping is a a great indicator of how much the Khalistan movement has infiltrated.

The infiltration is very deep. Into some elements of the IA.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by syam »

Earlier BJP enjoyed absolute majority. It doesn't have to care about anything including public perception. They got away with strong man perception. Cuz they were actually strong.

But now the table are flipped. You can no longer ignore things that are against you. You have to do actual retaliation to maintain your serious strong leadership image.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

Bhailog
Could I ask If we could stop or atleast start winding down the post polls autopsy!
We could look at what the ministry could look like or who's in who's going to miss the bus(given coalition).
And more importantly what impact both within and without.
Will Dr Jaishankar be retained (given his no nonsnse approach)??
And AS ( he is seen as a karttarpanthi) will he give way?? If he looses ministry what then Party President or Gujrat CM??
The trio being billed as easy going : Rajnathji, Gadkariji and Goyalji will they retain their old porfolios or PG for finance
What is with P Prabhakar?? is still CBN faithful and hence the romours of MOS Finance demand or has he ditched CBN?? and gone full sikular!
A Vaishnaw has done a stirling in Railways but that is old Nitishwa's playing ground for filling up class 4 employees (is it still a goood ploy for 2029 to keep the vote block happy)??
Maybe Ramanaji could wind down this thread and club Wish list to Modi 3.0 and ?? 2029 Polls or something like that??
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SRajesh »

Looks like we have vented enough spleen on the 2024 results!! dont you think.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

NRao wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:54
chetak wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:18 BJP has got whopping 18.56% ALONE. Rise from 9.63% in 2029 & that too with SAD.

Understand its importance in backdrop of Farmers' Protests & know REALITY of those Protests.
The farmer's protest had nothing to do with any farmer in the Punjab.

There are many channels that have addressed this topic.

The farmer's protest was and is a Khalistani effort, supported by the West.

And, the "arrest" of Natwar ji, is directly related to this "protest".

The slapping of Kangana is directly related to this too. In fact, the slapping is a a great indicator of how much the Khalistan movement has infiltrated.

The infiltration is very deep. Into some elements of the IA.

NRao ji,

while one agrees with you completely, the general perception is otherwise and it was/is being projected by motivated presstitutes, both in country and internationally, as a popular protest by "wronged" agriculturists and "innocent" farmers, who are being brutally oppressed by a majoritarian fascist govt

And that perception prevails to date, in spite of the reality being otherwise.

Nothing much is going to happen to that lady constable who slapped kangana, as she is related and connected to some khalistani farmer "leader". She did it because she knows that she is untouchable.

One would go so far a to say that the entire episode was not only politically staged but also pre planned

The situation is too inflammable for anyone to act against her
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by hanumadu »

chetak wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:18 BJP has got whopping 18.56% ALONE. Rise from 9.63% in 2029 & that too with SAD.

Understand its importance in backdrop of Farmers' Protests & know REALITY of those Protests.
It will take another 2-3 election cycles to translate into significant number of seats, in Punjab and Tamil Nadu...if at all.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

SRajesh wrote: 07 Jun 2024 10:39 Bhailog
Could I ask If we could stop or atleast start winding down the post polls autopsy!
We could look at what the ministry could look like or who's in who's going to miss the bus(given coalition).
And more importantly what impact both within and without.
Will Dr Jaishankar be retained (given his no nonsnse approach)??
And AS ( he is seen as a karttarpanthi) will he give way?? If he looses ministry what then Party President or Gujrat CM??
The trio being billed as easy going : Rajnathji, Gadkariji and Goyalji will they retain their old porfolios or PG for finance
What is with P Prabhakar?? is still CBN faithful and hence the romours of MOS Finance demand or has he ditched CBN?? and gone full sikular!
A Vaishnaw has done a stirling in Railways but that is old Nitishwa's playing ground for filling up class 4 employees (is it still a goood ploy for 2029 to keep the vote block happy)??
Maybe Ramanaji could wind down this thread and club Wish list to Modi 3.0 and ?? 2029 Polls or something like that??


SRajesh ji,

There will be no change in the BJP's organizational structure, or even their core management team. At the most, a new party president may come in sooner rather than later because of the party's own laid down procedures.

Several vital ministries, speaker's post and things like that are not on the agenda at the bargaining table. It would be suicidal for the BJP to relinquish control over infrastructure heavy

southern politicos and their parties are heavily backed by real estate cartels and other black money generating entities

AS is non negotiable under any and all circumstances, because Internal security will be the first target of congi, commie fronted BIF disrupters, besides there is no one who has the capability to handle internal security issues like AS and AJ do

YA should be brought back into the core team. It's foolish to ask him to perform optimally is his hands are tied.

During ABV's time the ratio between the BJP and RSS was 1:9 or so, in favour of the RSS, and that's why there was a constant tussle, but after Modiji took over, the ratio has risen to 1: >30 in favour of the BJP. That is why the influence and interference has reduced in terms of agenda setting and ground based election time interaction.

I read this very recently, but in the rush of things I neglected to note the reference, so I am relying on memory and I may be slightly off on the numbers but not too much

But the RSS is generally kept in the loop and there are regular but low key coordination meetings between the BJP and the RSS, well out of view of the presstitute media
Last edited by chetak on 07 Jun 2024 11:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Sachin »

chetak wrote: 07 Jun 2024 10:51 Nothing much is going to happen to that lady constable who slapped kangana, as she is related and connected to some khalistani farmer "leader". She did it because she knows that she is untouchable.
Routine transfers are still available in CISF? Transfer her to another battalion serving some industries in Naxal infested areas? This is actually an insult to CISF (as a Force). If this constable is allowed to get away; rest assured next would be the turn of Head Constables, ASI and SIs to try the same tactic. BJP leaders can then wonder who is going to hit them next. There was one CRPF constable who had complained about poor food (which was used to hit the Armed Forces in general). This was in 2018-2019 time frame. He got some good treatment, with court of enquiries, show cause notices etc.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

Sachin wrote: 07 Jun 2024 11:17
chetak wrote: 07 Jun 2024 10:51 Nothing much is going to happen to that lady constable who slapped kangana, as she is related and connected to some khalistani farmer "leader". She did it because she knows that she is untouchable.
Routine transfers are still available in CISF? Transfer her to another battalion serving some industries in Naxal infested areas? This is actually an insult to CISF (as a Force). If this constable is allowed to get away; rest assured next would be the turn of Head Constables, ASI and SIs to try the same tactic. BJP leaders can then wonder who is going to hit them next. There was one CRPF constable who had complained about poor food (which was used to hit the Armed Forces in general). This was in 2018-2019 time frame. He got some good treatment, with court of enquiries, show cause notices etc.



Sachin ji,

The point has been made by the khalistanis and it cannot be unmade.

Also, the actor can be a bit difficult to handle because of her colossal ego.

the lady constable will be given a slap on the wrist, suspended for some time (paid holiday) and thereafter, posted somewhere close to her home in punjab, and her personnel file will be endorsed in red as PEP, meaning "politically exposed person"

That is how these things usually work out.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by triank »

Sachin wrote: 07 Jun 2024 11:17
chetak wrote: 07 Jun 2024 10:51 Nothing much is going to happen to that lady constable who slapped kangana, as she is related and connected to some khalistani farmer "leader". She did it because she knows that she is untouchable.
Routine transfers are still available in CISF? Transfer her to another battalion serving some industries in Naxal infested areas? This is actually an insult to CISF (as a Force). If this constable is allowed to get away; rest assured next would be the turn of Head Constables, ASI and SIs to try the same tactic. BJP leaders can then wonder who is going to hit them next. There was one CRPF constable who had complained about poor food (which was used to hit the Armed Forces in general). This was in 2018-2019 time frame. He got some good treatment, with court of enquiries, show cause notices etc.
an FIR seems to have been filed against her by the CISF.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by Aditya_V »

Deans wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:42 The results suggest that the BJP had no realistic chance of getting a single seat in TN. Whatever be the reason, this should have been known to the
state unit, particularly if Annamalai has a good connect with ground reality. The party took a view that it is better to go it alone and was therefore perceived as a threat by BOTH the mainstream Dravidian parties. It would have been better for BJP to play the kind of role that Mayawati or Pawan Kalyan play - I have a loyal bloc of 10-15% of voters. If either of the 2 main parties in the state want to win, they have to talk to me. Retaining the
alliance with AIADMK, even with partial vote transfer, could have got NDA 10-12 seats.
It was AIDMK which came out and stated that no truck with BJP, I have watched 2019 GE, 2024GE, 2022 Mayor elections in CHENNAI and 2021 Assembly here. While ground level AIDMK workers hate DMK, many in Top leadership of AIDMK are stating DMK are Pangalis. It seems a few leaders of AIDMK are desperate with no Center, State, some leaders in AIDMK are being taken care of by Arivalayum. Especially with no Jayalalitha there.

I know middle class women also who have seen the DMK 1000 scheme, where Husbands have voted for DMK, wives have voted for I.N.D.I thinking there was a chance to get the Rs 1 Lakh, BJP needs to work on some cash distribution scheme.

IN such a case it is better for BJP to grow the party alone. AIDMK Middle and lower leadership is disillusioned, it has also caused some headaches for DMK, which can be seen by reaching out to TDP to talk to BJP.

Now DMK with no center role for 5 years, will be dependent only on state finances. So they cannot give a face saver to friendly AIDMK leaders in 2026 Assembly. This whole mask will fall after DMk wins the 2026 Assembly polls and many of AIDMK leaders and cadre will break away seeing the sorry state of affairs where some parts of the AIDMK leadership clearly in bed with the DMK.

DMK banked on Central Ministries Income so that they could keep the arrangement going and these AIDMK leaders in Bed with DMK could pretend they are fighting DMK- the amount to loot in State ministries is very less compared to Central funds. It does hurt DMK leadership that 2- 40-0 in TN, generally such cycles change in TN every 7-8 years, are wasted. The Huge piles of cash sunk in are going to waste where they need to raid the state exchequer and land deals and reduce thier war chests for the future battles.

Remember BJP was nothing in many states as recently as 10-15 years ago and is dominating them or a player there, AIDMK/ DMK took a shot to show BJP is less than NOTA in TN and that has failed. Unlike Kerala it cannot work like LEFT- INC alliance, the demographics are very different. The opposition space has now been fully given to the BJP- which whether we like it or not is very important in a democracy especially in set up with Dynastic, corrupt and poor governance.

It is because of this opposition space the LEFT-INC never merged in Kerala or WB - for all practical purposes these 2 parties are the same
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by ricky_v »

Image

I have a 2 parter observation on the current sm power setup, where the rw repeats as nauseam the above image, the final result to this process will also be the same in this case.

For eg, md zoobear posts some observation, the entire rw chucklefuks will jump up and down to debunk it, same with dhruv rathee, never realizing that they are batting on pitches prepared by the opposition never mind how well they bat, they are responding to others' perception.

The only way to respond is by spreading so much canard throughout sm that they will have to fact check every rw post, in essence, destroy the current truthful look of sm which is only there because the lw sm is considered to be the only opposition, this entire pipeline must be made to be considered disingenuous by the public
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by AshishA »

^^^ Overwhelming through sheer numbers us what gonna help us.

We can't be defensive. We need to go on offense and make sure the SM companies, along with Left gang can deal with the tsunami.
la.khan
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by la.khan »

Here is what is weird about GE2024. Satta bazar, astrologers, psephologists/exit polls none of them got the elections right :shock: We can ignore the first two but psephologists, please remember all agencies, couldn't get the vote correctly. Even by a mile :P

Cong(I)'s performance looks more than what it is. Magnified. Where Cong(I) made alliances, they fared better (ex. TN, MH, UP). Where they couldn't, they couldn't even open their account (ex. AP, OD, WB). The only states where the Cong(I) have a modicum of strength are TS, KA & PJ. Everywhere else, it is doosron ki meherbani pe ...

In reality, Cong(I) are a fraction of their strength. For the last few decades. They are not the colossus they once were. Cong(I) live on the crumbs their alliance partners throw at them. Votes do get transferred efficiently and Cong(I) get to strut around with their "increased" strength :P

So, RaGa has won two seats, Wayanad & Rai Bareilly. Which one will he retain? I am guessing Rai Bareilly. He can afford to give up Wayanad, send Priyanka Vadra to contest from there, and being non Hindu majority LS constituency, will easily win from there. That way the siblings can make monkeys of their voters in Wayanad & Rai Bareilly.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by SivaR »

Aditya_V wrote: 07 Jun 2024 12:57
Deans wrote: 07 Jun 2024 09:42 The results suggest that the BJP had no realistic chance of getting a single seat in TN. Whatever be the reason, this should have been known to the
state unit, particularly if Annamalai has a good connect with ground reality. The party took a view that it is better to go it alone and was therefore perceived as a threat by BOTH the mainstream Dravidian parties. It would have been better for BJP to play the kind of role that Mayawati or Pawan Kalyan play - I have a loyal bloc of 10-15% of voters. If either of the 2 main parties in the state want to win, they have to talk to me. Retaining the
alliance with AIADMK, even with partial vote transfer, could have got NDA 10-12 seats.
It was AIDMK which came out and stated that no truck with BJP, I have watched 2019 GE, 2024GE, 2022 Mayor elections in CHENNAI and 2021 Assembly here. While ground level AIDMK workers hate DMK, many in Top leadership of AIDMK are stating DMK are Pangalis. It seems a few leaders of AIDMK are desperate with no Center, State, some leaders in AIDMK are being taken care of by Arivalayum. Especially with no Jayalalitha there.
My observation is, coming out of ADMK alliance was good for long term, but should Not have allied with all the 'letter pad' or dying parties for the sake of election, especially when you're trying to show the change. All these alliance parties were already worn out and common man have no respect for these guys. In TN, the core parties control around 30-40% votes (DMK 20% and ADMK 20% almost equal share), rest 60% people vote based on who has more winning probability in TN (vote-share based on the alliance strength) , hence it is always sweep one-sided, even if the winning party is heavily corrupt and zero governance capability. It maybe controversial, but I think BJP should alliance with NTK (it is growing its vote share every election and it is reaching near 10% just on its own, and always contest on its own because of its fight with MK parties). This would solve the major issue(Brahminical Party) BJP facing in TN. The Brahminical Party view would have been wiped with this alliance and could have garnered not just SC/Christian votes, the liberal Hindu votes would also be moved to BJP. Once the combined vote share is crosses the hurdle rate of 10%, all of them would be converted into seats. Hence they can easily reach 10+ seats in TN and can show their corruption free governance. The state is ripe for change ,but BJP should be bold enough to bring that change.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by kvraghav »

^^^
I downloaded and looked at form 20 for Coimbatore seat. The Coimbatore north assembly seat had Annamalai trailing by 8K votes and AIADMK got 28K votes here. The Coimbatore south assembly seat had Annamalai trailing by 7K votes and AIADMK got 19K votes here. Little push in either of these seats and we will have Annamalai in TN Assembly. The AIADMK fellow was third in all 6 assembly segments.
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by nits »

There is lot of Talk of RSS did not support on ground; or rift between RSS and Top Brass; now like many speculations floating this can be a purposeful ploy to blame RSS or create rift between them... ?

any views on this gurus
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

That is why non muslims are kept out of mecca and medina.

They know the importance of demography.




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chetak
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

abrahamic privilege


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chetak
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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by chetak »

The contract for the famous ladoos given as prasad by a globally renowned Hindu temple was given to a non Hindu by the abrahamic CM of that state

Even to that extent the sickulars have been emboldened to openly disrespect the sacred sentiments of the Hindus


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Re: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

Post by A_Gupta »

disha wrote: 07 Jun 2024 01:09 How do you remove a thorn? Use another one.

Here is the story that needs to be read and retold in full.

https://swarajyamag.com/north-east/how- ... is-citadel
Am hitting a paywall. Highlights please?
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