Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Rakesh]

US Weapons Accuracy Drops To 10% In Ukraine Due To Jamming
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-w ... ue-jamming
25 May 2024

https://x.com/arunp2810/status/1795055919232926056 ---> Ukraine’s battle-space has become a tough testing ground for “smart” weaponry. The dense EW environment and the ability to jam or spook GPS has led to a sharp drop in weapon accuracies. Our military and DRDO folks need to take note and work on fixes.

https://x.com/SandeepUnnithan/status/17 ... 2802431337 ---> Russia’s formidable full-spectrum battlefield EW is ‘dumbing’ down smart weapons from the Shipovnik Aero (in pc) to the LEO satellite jamming Krasukha.

Russia is starting to make its superiority in electronic warfare count
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/1 ... fare-count
23 Nov 2023

[srai]

Swedish CV90 IFV looks to be the preferred production option for Ukraine.

Ukraine and Sweden reach agreement on Swedish-made CV90 IFVs

Ukraine and Sweden have reached an agreement for a batch of Swedish-made CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. This announcement follows the Swedish government's authorization in January 2024 to prepare an agreement to supply Ukraine with CV90 IFVs.
…
No details were provided regarding the financial terms and Ukraine's obligations in participating in the project, although the average price of a CV90 is around $9 million.
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The CV-90 coalition, initiated by Sweden and including Denmark, Estonia, Norway, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Finland, and the Czech Republic, was joined by Ukraine in September 2023.…

In August, Ukraine and Sweden declared their intention to jointly produce CV90 infantry fighting vehicles in Ukraine, with Ukraine expressing interest in purchasing up to 1,000 of these IFVs.
…

[srai]

Sweden donating an AEW&C

Sweden transfers ASC 890 airborne early warning and control aircraft to Ukraine

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“Sweden is transferring an ASC 890 airborne early warning and control aircraft to Ukraine, thereby strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities,” the Swedish officials said.
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ASC 890 will provide Ukraine with completely new capabilities for airborne early warning and combat target control in the air and at sea.

Ukraine’s capabilities to detect and engage targets at long distances will also increase.
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Presumably, there will be no direct use of these aircraft over the territory of Ukraine due to the threat of destruction, but they will be able to fly in the airspace of the neighboring countries.
…

[YashG]

In a latest press interview, Ukraine's defence minister Umerov claimed russia has 300K troops ready in the rear to attack. I have no idea how true is this and if it is false, what Ukraine aims to achieve from saying this.

The minister said Russia had about 500,000 troops in Ukraine and near its borders, and was preparing to add another 200,000-300,000

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 024-05-28/


@deans but how do you assess this statement ?

At 500K + 200-300K , the total will be 700-800K. 700K has been my earlier estimate (in earlier posts) but 800K is much larger. But I would have assumed 600K are already inside Ukraine & 50K++ in group N waiting across border.

As per Umerov 200-300K are waiting across the borders. Dots dont connect with what we know publicly.

[srai]

Official UK Ministry of Defence series

A good look at British training institutions and their equipments

[Deans]

In a latest press interview, Ukraine's defence minister Umerov claimed russia has 300K troops ready in the rear to attack. I have no idea how true is this and if it is false, what Ukraine aims to achieve from saying this.


@deans but how do you assess this statement ?

At 500K + 200-300K , the total will be 700-800K. 700K has been my earlier estimate (in earlier posts) but 800K is much larger. But I would have assumed 600K are already inside Ukraine & 50K++ in group N waiting across border.

As per Umerov 200-300K are waiting across the borders. Dots dont connect with what we know publicly.

I agree. The 300k number does not add up. I see it as a Ukrainian attempt to get more money.
`Pay us now, else 300k Russians will overrun us and ruin Biden's reelection bid'.
That said, we have only seen a part of the Russian Northern army group which has entered the Kharkov region. This is an army with 2 Corps, each
will typically be 2 divisions + 1 brigade of artillery and supporting arms. We have only 2 divisions so far. Probably 20,000 men out
of a combat strength of 50k. There are clips on Russian TV showing tanks and heavy vehicles moving on trains into the Belgorod region.

There will also be reserves assigned to exploit any other sector of the front where Russian makes a breakthrough - there are 3-4 such areas which look like breaking. However, that might be another 50,000 men at best and I think the defense minister was referring to 300k only in the North.

[IndraD]

@Deans sir there are noises in Europe wanting Ukraine to use Nato weapons to strike deep inside Russia, infact Nato can do it with plausible deniability blaming Ukraine, what will follow in such a scenario

[Haresh]

...
A video from the armours bench. Describing a 12 gauge shotgun adaptor for the Russian standard under barrel granade launcher. The video suggests that it's able to kill drones at upto 30 meters.

https://youtu.be/b_JEBj1GknA?si=ChDqr2Ll1RdFsafv

A semi/full auto or even a pump action shotgun might be better than a single shot 'adaptor' mod thing. I get the ease of carrying part, but doubt the odds of a first shot kill against a moving target, under fluid battle conditions.

Russia produces a number of good shotguns. Saiga-12, Vepr-12 for eg. I think those will also be used at unit level, if not already being done

The Americans had developed a 40 MM shotgun round for under barrel grenade launchers. That Russian shotgun cartridge adaptor looks a little bit fiddly.
Why not just develop a 30mm shotgun round, much easier to load into the launcher, rather than loading a 12guage cartridge, into an adaptor, and then loading the adaptor into the grenade launcher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M576_40_mm_grenade

[pravula]

Or why not make an airburst RPG round using some of the old ack-ack designs? 40mm is common enough. It will need to be directional...

[drnayar]

@Deans sir there are noises in Europe wanting Ukraine to use Nato weapons to strike deep inside Russia, infact Nato can do it with plausible deniability blaming Ukraine, what will follow in such a scenario

[youtube]0G5Wd3_HuJA[/youtube

Wont be surprised if an accidental "tactical" nuke goes off under idiotski

[Manish_P]

..
The Americans had developed a 40 MM shotgun round for under barrel grenade launchers. ...

Or why not make an airburst RPG round using some of the old ack-ack designs? 40mm is common enough. It will need to be directional...

Logistics, easy of carrying etc

As regards the airburst rounds they are typically pre-armed to explode at specific distances/or on contact. With drones you cannot expect every time to be well aware of them to engage them at that specific distance. Except the larger MALE/HALE one. A shotgun which has a nice spread of shot/pellets has a better chance against the typical smaller mini/micro drones attacking small units.

Meanwhile, as i suspected or rather expected...

Shotguns Are Russia’s Last Line Of Defense Against Drones

A year ago a Russian military blogger advised that their troops urgently needed shotguns to deal with an upcoming avalanche of Ukrainian FPV drones. Now drones are everywhere and Russians on the frontline are literally begging for shotguns as their jammers fail. Meanwhile the Ukrainians, who seem to be facing far fewer kamikazes, have been issuing shotguns and training their troops in how to use them to bring down drones.

There are plenty of electronic jammers on both sides, but drone builders keep changing their operating frequencies and using jam-resistant radios, so the jammer that worked last week may not work this week, leaving troops on the ground exposed.

Talking to Russian newspaper Lenta last month, retired Colonel Andrei Koshkin said that when electronic warfare fails, a shotgun can be the solution: “I have to say that even a simple shotgun that you go hunting with, which shoots a spray of shot, turns out to be more effective than a machine gun trying to shoot down a drone."

Such weapons have been issued to some Russian units. Russian social media recently showed pictures of two soldiers credited with bringing down drones. The caption was illuminating though “The first is from the cover of the demining group, the second is from the protection of the Tor air defense system.” – in other words, both were assigned specifically to drone protection, so their role is to watch the skies, shotgun in hand, to protect their unit. Both soldiers were armed with the 12-gauge Vepr-12 Molot shotgun, a semi-automatic weapon with a 5-round magazine.

[srai]

[YashG]

...

Problem with most of these devices (while not completely useless as a last resort defence) is that terminal drone velocity is very high and humans before they can detect and act, the drone has already hit.

There has to be some automated visual detector and then automatic fire of some large area shrapnels (russians showed a bullet with kevlar fibers capable of damaging fans) that can go multiple times in all directions..since drone will make last second manouevers. Damaging fans will not be useful for a diving in drone. It wont be able to manoever now.

[IndraD]

President Joe Biden has partially lifted a ban on Ukraine using American weapons in strikes on Russian territory, according to US officials
https://news.sky.com/story/joe-biden-pa ... y-13145668

strike deep inside Russia is a go:US

[sanman]

I think America is under control of NeoCons who've gone nuts. They are riding the tiger and are only clutching harder and harder, resorting to ever more extreme stunts. This is why we can't let the Sonias and the Kejriwals get back into power.

It feels like the world is surely headed towards WW3.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asw-kHrCnA4

[Arima]

President Joe Biden has partially lifted a ban on Ukraine using American weapons in strikes on Russian territory, according to US officials
https://news.sky.com/story/joe-biden-pa ... y-13145668

strike deep inside Russia is a go:US

so it is mostly Nato or contract troops firing atacams or missiles into Russland from ukr.
Russland may start nuke testing next.

[sanman]

US Flies B-52 Strategic Bombers Around Kaliningrad Enclave

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rNIHYtTvFQ

[YashG]

Add another 150k in rear & support units, to get 450k.
A lot of rear area functions are being done by NATO (medical care of serious injuries, heavy maintenance, intel) so Ukraine has a higher
percentage of men in combat.

Ukraine today has said that their support units and rear areas are overmanned and some of them are being moved to combat units.
There are also at least 50,000 men who are border guards. They can ideally be used in combat, but that will result in more people fleeing
across the border to Europe.

@deans, Here is some more confirmation on Ukn moving rear guard to frontline for the earlier post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ation-war/

Until about a month ago, a Ukrainian soldier, whose call sign is Val, had been standing guard on a bridge in the southern Odessa region — the same job he’d been doing every day since he enlisted at the start of the invasion.

On April 30, Val was told that he was being transferred to combat duty. Within 24 hours, he was assigned to the 93rd Brigade

I would assume that Ukn moved all of its reserves in to the rear in east. Then sent more Kharkhiv front opened- in this case the reserves in rear should have moved to forward deployment and the other experienced brigades redeployed to Kharkiv.

There are two reasons we could extrapolate this -
1. Budanov said there are now no more reserves; all deployments are from existing frontline units
2. Up until now we never saw multiple news items in such a short period, about ill-prepared recruits sent to frontline - Since this had never happened before

So that would mean, with 2-3 months more of attrition - Ukn will have to move paramilitary, police and whatever remains of the rear guard to front. This is exactly what the NATO trainers are trying to leak with NATO troops.

So if the rear does move forward in maybe 2-3 months, we will have to wait for another two months for that rear to attrit and breakup of lines. So ukn literally running out of soldier would happen in 5 months from now. However lines could collapse if the morale breaks down or moving more rear units causes chaos in ukn cities.

[sanman]

Austrian analysts are providing very useful and objective coverage. Just watch this:

[suryag]

@ around 17:00 the Col says that the Indian and Chinese Govts prevented/persuaded Russia from using tactical Nukes

[YashG]

Austrian analysts are providing very useful and objective coverage. Just watch this:

its hard to arguebiaes towards russia, and it corroborates that momentum has shifted to russia atlest in some part due to their superior jamming, FABs. He made one seminal point - the point of Ukn force culmination or the point of no return. He didnt answer that Q - he merely said that coming months for Ukn might be tough and that point might be reached.

I might guess culmination has already reached, what is yet to be reached is collapse - a full lack of enough soldiers x ammunition to put up a fight - like was the case in 2022 for ukraine's offensive. When Ukn possibly outnumbered russia 800K to 150K i.e 4:1 or maybe 5:1

Russia having superior airforce, ammo supply will not need that lopsided ratio but rn, they are not there and will take quite sometime to be in that advantageous position. The west is trying to prevent that by infusing whatever they can - F16s will definitely help Ukns to stem the leak.

[Pratyush]

@ around 17:00 the Col says that the Indian and Chinese Govts prevented/persuaded Russia from using tactical Nukes

Wishful thinking, the Russians at no point during the conflict were ever in a position from where they could have lost this war.

[srai]

Everyone trying to figure out anti-drone defense. In the next few years, expect to see more sophisticated and integrated anti-drone systems being developed.

[srai]

Even with all the sanctions, Western and other international micro-electronics are making their way into Russian weaponry.
70% of these “imported” electronics are of US origins.
90% of theses micro-electronics are routed to Russia via China.

[sanman]

@ around 17:00 the Col says that the Indian and Chinese Govts prevented/persuaded Russia from using tactical Nukes

Yes, the CIA chief William Burns publicly credited Modi with having dissuaded Putin from using tactical nuclear weapons in the early opening part of the Ukraine war.

@ 5:24

[Sharads]

Longer the Russians take to takeover everything east of Dneiper and Odessa the harder it's going to get as the western production will come online and there will be no shortages for Ukraine. As it is Russians couldn't even takeover sparsely-defended kharkiv, a city 40km from the border, and are getting pummelled in sumy region, despite having massive advantages in every domain. Prospects of Ukraine running out of manpower are also dim as NATO soldiers are already fighting in ukraine and will continue to increase their numbers. The Russian grind, no breakthroughs, attacks inside Russia and the likely Ukrainian(NATO)counteroffensive will increase the likelihood of tactical nukes.

[Aditya_V]

If Ukraine has the manpower, as it is Ukraine is now having to send rear sie drivers , talks of Police men etc and NATO personal from Baltics are being sent . West is just trying to keep the Ukraine war going till the US election.

No NATO soldier is going to sacrifice thier life for Ukraine, time is.on the Russian side , as clearly China is also sending thier Ammo through North Korea.

[YashG]

^^^
Western arms supply is a dichotomy. I believe it might never scale up enough.

The vast amounts of funds being routed to Ukraine is a direct consequence of internal pressure & lobbying by defence contractors in US. These same contractors have for years worked on increasing the cost of armaments being produced by them. They have floated the concept of qualitative superiority for their own profits sake. These contractors make a lot more money in selling fancy new weapons like zumwalts or F35 which are insanely costly. Producing shells is low profit work for these companies. Therefore while they want increase budgets but they dont want it to be used for buying low margin artillery. Therefore these defence contractors will not easily scale production of basics.

[Arima]

Longer the Russians take to takeover everything east of Dneiper and Odessa the harder it's going to get as the western production will come online and there will be no shortages for Ukraine. As it is Russians couldn't even takeover sparsely-defended kharkiv, a city 40km from the border, and are getting pummelled in sumy region, despite having massive advantages in every domain. Prospects of Ukraine running out of manpower are also dim as NATO soldiers are already fighting in ukraine and will continue to increase their numbers. The Russian grind, no breakthroughs, attacks inside Russia and the likely Ukrainian(NATO)counteroffensive will increase the likelihood of tactical nukes.

last year June Ukr tried in wane at Robotenye for counter offensive and result is there for all to see.
this year it looks repeat by Russia in Kharkiv and Sumy. how many kilometers they have ventured in last 3-4 weeks????

[srai]

^^^

The West took too long to deliver weapons and equipment for the counter-offensive. The quantities were not sufficient. Then it took a while for the Ukrainians to train on these equipment and attempt to crash course learn NATO tactics of “combined arms” (but without air superiority).

When all these were happening, Russians dug in and built extensive defensive fortifications the entire length of the frontline.

By the time Ukraine was finally “ready” to initiate their counter-offensive, the momentum had already been lost.

Then the failure of the West (and US politics) to sustain ammunition after the counter-offensive stalled lead to subsequent (while somewhat “avoidable”) loss of manpower and territory.

The gist of it is the war is “artificially” being kept at a stalemate. Neither side can achieve complete victory. At least, not anytime soon.

[srai]

Interesting video of ATACM with cluster munition warhead attacking a S-400 SAM system.

It’s not clear how many ATACM missiles were used. Drone footage shows the following:

4 x S-400 missiles are launched from 3 x vehicles

At least one ATACM makes it through and blows its cluster munitions directly over the S-400 radar, command and ? x launcher vehicles.

Aftermath ground footage shows destroyed S-400 system vehicles (radar, command and two launchers).

[srai]

Looks like France going to donate Mirage-2005-5 to Ukraine.



It will take time though for pilot and ground crew training, infrastructure and FOC. Probably late 2025 is when Mirafe-2000-5s will be operationally flying in Ukraine.

[Deans]

last year June Ukr tried in wane at Robotenye for counter offensive and result is there for all to see.
this year it looks repeat by Russia in Kharkiv and Sumy. how many kilometers they have ventured in last 3-4 weeks????

The objective of Ukraine's 2023 CO was to win the war by cutting the land corridor to Ukraine (and trapping a large Russia force).
NATO felt it could be done in a week.
Ukraine attacked with about 11 brigades, against a similar sized defending force.
Ukraine took losses in a 3:1 ratio gaining only marginal territory which has mostly been recaptured.

In Kharkov, Russia's objective were:
- To create a buffer zone to protect Belgorod, (mostly succeeded).
- To force the reallocation of Ukrainian reserves because a possible threat to Kharkov could not be ignored.
- A 6 brigade Russian force (not all are committed) succeeded in drawing in 11 Ukrainian brigades to defend.
- Russia is inflicting casualties in a more than 2:1 ratio (based on Western and Russian estimates of each other's losses).

[srin]

^^^ There are rumours of force concentration near Sumy in the north which is probably tying up even more forces

[srai]

Kharkiv offensive has allowed the West to lift restrictions on weapons being used on Russian soil because it is now seen as “defensive” operations. UK and France allowing Ukraine to use their 250km Storm Shadow/Scalp to hit targets inside Russia. US allowing strikes with its weapons up to 200 miles inside Russia. A lot of HIMARS/ATACM attacks have occurred in the Belgorod region attacking Russian force concentration, convoys, artillery, radar & SAM sites, ammunition dumps, fuel storage and logistics hubs.

Another “red-line” has been crossed.

[Sharads]

The stalemate or freezing of conflict, supposed future Trump Admin solution, puts Ukraine on the conveyor belt to be further incorporated into the American Empire. Ukraine can never be a neutral state, either Russia takes it over or it'll be taken over by the American Empire. From 1990s —after the foolish dissolution of Soviet Union by Gorbochev, only outdone by the Nicholas IIs inability to neutralize the mob— till 2010s Russia lacked the ability to do anything about the expansion of American Empire. But now, with China, it has to go all in to take over Ukraine quickly-- not SMO but a full scale war, or risk being relegated to the position of whining and pleading (i.e. India's position).

[srin]

Kharkiv offensive has allowed the West to lift restrictions on weapons being used on Russian soil because it is now seen as “defensive” operations. UK and France allowing Ukraine to use their 250km Storm Shadow/Scalp to hit targets inside Russia. US allowing strikes with its weapons up to 200 miles inside Russia. A lot of HIMARS/ATACM attacks have occurred in the Belgorod region attacking Russian force concentration, convoys, artillery, radar & SAM sites, ammunition dumps, fuel storage and logistics hubs.

Another “red-line” has been crossed.

What I don't see being discussed in any US main stream media is what Russia can do if NATO weapons are used to attack inside Russia. The US has a huge attack surface - it has bases across the world that are potentially vulnerable. While Russians may not directly strike at US military say in Syria, all they need to do need to do is to sell missiles to Iran, Syria and many countries in Africa and South America (or their proxies such as Houthis) with an explicit mandate to target US assets.

[srai]

^^^
“… if NATO weapons are used to attack inside Russia”

Already has occurred and will continue to be so in the border regions (up to 300km based on current max ranges of weapons provided).

[YashG]

ukn might be quickly depleting its atacms stocks to hold the russian tide at all costs or use them before russia finds a way to handle atacms. Neither scenario looks good for Ukn. What will ultimately matter in this war will be soldier numbers.

During the seige of stalingrad, during the most dire phase, they said the tanks were rolling straight from tractor plants to battlefield. Rn thesoldiers are going straight from the recruitment nodes to battlefield, so its clear there are no reserves other than the rear guard.

So it will all come down to the rate of troop casaulty. In that sense, by making Ukn attack in Vovchansk, russia is probably causing more casaulties. So other than the buffer zone, I also think the norethrn attack should accelerate troop attrition and then with that we should start seeing hole sin Ukn defence line appearing. I dont see that right now. If we dont see some holes in 2-3 months _ I would say Ukn is doing something right.

[srai]

Ukraine Says Hit Su-57 Fighter Jet Inside Russia

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"On 8 June 2024, a Su-57 multi-purpose fighter jet of the aggressor state was struck at the Akhtubinsk airfield in Russia's Astrakhan region, 589 kilometers from the line of contact," Ukraine's GUR military intelligence said.
…

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/ ... sia-a85355