2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[vijayk]

All those imported folks who were given tickets lost the elections. That means their political career is over. They can't go back to their old party whatever it was before joining BJP. In BJP also, their career is finito. They are good for mining dirt on their old parties and use taht information at the appropriate time between now and 2028. Even before 2029 elections are announced, INDI Axis would be history.

Lets not rationalize every action of BJP whether it is Modi or Shah or Nadda.
They screwed it up. Don't know who did it. Nadda or Shah or Modi.

The over dependence of BJP on Modi without karyakartas was very bad. The personality cult has to be discouraged. They better mend the fences.

[vijayk]

This most important order was passed by the Election Commission of India on 2nd May 2024, it clearly mentioned data collection by Congress Guarantee Cards will be seen as a Corrupt Practice under section 123 of RP Act.

CON+ blatantly disregarded the orders of the ECI and continued with their Khata Khat scheme.

Interestingly the 99% of media remained silent on this Order and it was not reported in MSM.

The Media is equally responsible for the Biggest Electoral Fraud in the history of the Indian Democracy.

[A_Gupta]

When a country is trying to get into the top 3, it will meet with resistance of a global magnitude of some sort or other from all those who don't want the current ordering/hierarchy to change.

The BJP and the government need remedy their negligence; the success of this electoral fraud exposes huge vulnerabilities that this global resistance can and will exploit. Even panchayat elections in an ascendant India are no longer merely panchayat elections. They shape India, India strongly influences the world, the world has reactions to that which cannot be assumed to be benign.

[A_Gupta]

Worth a read, whatever you may feel about it.
https://thewire.in/politics/the-subvers ... y-properly

Excerpt:

Living in UP, in a colony of mostly Valmiki Dalits and Muslim Dhobis, has forced me to tear open the big-city Delhi bubble I was in and see this story properly. For the last two elections, in the polarised Lok Sabha of Kairana, it was possible to see why so many OBC castes (other backward classes) voted for the BJP. Kashyaps, Sainis, Gadariyas, Kumars work as landless labour for extremely oppressive and usurious landlords who come from two or three traditional landowning castes – Hindu Jats and Gujjars. Most votes in favour of the BJP have been to negate and overturn their supremacy. Some of that anger is directed at Muslim landowning castes – Muslim Gujjars and Sheikhs – for similar reasons. Any political party that has leaned for support on these big landowners has been in trouble in UP for this reason. Election after election has shown this to us, but people like me, from big cities, that see communal politics as a monolith, have been unable to read UP correctly. We don’t see that even this leaning on the BJP by OBCs was a subversive move away from the stranglehold of landlords.

For the last two elections, the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine has been seen as a party of landlords and entitled people – favouring Jat and Muslim landowners of considerable wealth and ignoring aspirational castes. Modi was the voice of these aspirational castes, in others words, calling out the subversive amongst these communities in distress. If it meant paying heed to a clarion call against Muslims, so be it. “Politics me yeh sab chalta hai, didi – in politics all of this is fair game,” many would say to me.

With this in mind, it was possible to make sense of what one witnessed in this election.

It started slowly and tentatively where I am, in Kairana, in western UP, which voted in phase one on April 19. It then built into a tsunami of dissent by the time the prime minister’s constituency of Varanasi went to vote on June 1.

“Didi, Iqra Hasan is winning, I’m telling you;” said a young man we work with, who is a BJP party worker and Bajrang Dal activist. “I’m a booth agent for the party but I’m telling you I’ve voted for the Samajwadi Party candidate Iqra Hasan and so has our entire village. So have various OBC castes, across the board,” this man said, calling each of us in the office in turn, the excitement uncontainable. He said he was still a Modi fan but did not like the high-handedness of the local BJP candidate. This was the first sign for an election observer like me, of things to come.

When I had travelled across UP in 2019, I did not hear people speak like this. Even if they didn’t like the local candidate, the vote was for Modi. How and why did the local candidate suddenly start to matter? Because dissent against the local candidate wasn’t literally just that.

Nothing in UP can be taken at face value. Read together with everything else I have described above, what appeared to me was that this young man was telling me he was voting against the man he liked and admired – against Modi, but he needed to keep calling each of us as if we could somehow dissipate that nervous energy and help him justify his decision to himself. Why was he knocking his hero, was he in fact knocking his hero? The best way for him to articulate his dissent was by saying – I’m voting against the BJP but I know that overall, nationally, the BJP will still win. I only want to teach the local despot a lesson.

By the third phase of this election, the voices of dissent got bolder and more brazen. What was a tentative thought in the beginning, began to cascade across the state and across castes. A man who been in the BJP from the time the party was founded, spoke more clearly of the scale of dissent. He was from the district of Dadri in western UP, made famous by the lynching of the Muslim man Mohammad Akhlaq in 2015. He said – “I am not voting for the BJP and my RSS colleagues from here to Ghaziabad have all decided not to campaign for the party this time.”

I heard a similar story from another RSS man, this time a young RSS man who was also in the BJP’s student wing in the southern part of UP – in Jhansi. “I am telling you in no uncertain terms that we are not canvassing for the party this time.”

By the last phase, I was on ground, in eastern UP, with a group of friends and concerned citizens. We travelled across Varanasi and the districts of Ballia and Ghazipur. Castes normally seen as staunch BJP supporters were in revolt. Sainis, Vishwakarmas, Kushwahas – people who had turned to Modi as their saviour from dominant castes and landlords. Each had their particular reasons, but it added up to all of these castes feeling like they did not matter. That the man they looked up to somewhat starry-eyed was wearing a mask and making promises without delivering any.

They began to articulate their anger in concrete and coherent ways. There’s an 18% goods and services tax on education. We don’t have jobs. Inflation is killing us. Cooking gas is unaffordable. But underneath all of these tangible reasons was the larger, intangible feeling one had picked up by this time. The people of UP felt they had been had. If they had revolted against a landlord-leaning set of parties earlier, they could do it again.

On the ghats of Varanasi, by the river Ganga, people across castes even quantified their dissent. “Modi’s margin of victory will come down hugely, he won’t win by more than a lakh votes,” said a hawker, his words becoming prophetic as they cascaded over the river.

The narrative may be true, who can tell. One problem I have is that one can always tailor the narrative to fit enough facts after the events to seem true. Just take this as yet another thread in the story.

> It started slowly and tentatively where I am, in Kairana, in western UP, which voted in phase one on April 19.

Very convenient; it does explain why the psephologists missed it. etc.

[Pratyush]

What are the consequences of section 123 RP act. Does it mean that the MP so elected will be disqualified?

If not, then it means nothing.

[A_Gupta]

What are the consequences of section 123 RP act. Does it mean that the MP so elected will be disqualified?

If not, then it means nothing.

Back in 1975, Indira Gandhi's election from Rae Bareli was nullified by the Allahabad High Court ruling on an election petition filed by Raj Narain alleging various section 123 RP act violations.

What will happen today? Who knows?

[Deans]

The narrative may be true, who can tell. One problem I have is that one can always tailor the narrative to fit enough facts after the events to seem true. Just take this as yet another thread in the story.

> It started slowly and tentatively where I am, in Kairana, in western UP, which voted in phase one on April 19.

Very convenient; it does explain why the psephologists missed it. etc.

All the experts who got it wrong are now writing op-eds of why things went wrong and how they saw it coming etc.
That said, there is a big loss of vote share in several core states which cannot be explained by conspiracy theories, or minority consolidation etc.
A dominant theme across media and commentators is arrogance and the belief that party workers have to do nothing - Modiji will give them 400
seats.

In 2024, Modiji will be 78. That is 3 times India's average age of 26. MOST voters won't even remember what the Sattar saal era was like and
hardly anyone would have heard of Nehru. They will have higher expectations from govt than in previous elections.
Raga will be the perfect age for a PM candidate.

There has to be a successor to Modiji and work on that has to start now. Key cabinet ministers and CMs have to be given more visibility.

[Pratyush]

A_Gupta,

WRT, your post quoting the wire. One of my Jat friends also had a similar feedback for me. But that was before the start of polling itself.

I had discounted that thinking that there was no alternative.

[KL Dubey]

Worth a read, whatever you may feel about it.
https://thewire.in/politics/the-subvers ... y-properly

Thanks. One issue with these anecdotal "all castes in revolt" reports is that it sounds like nobody voted for NDA. But NDA still got 44% vote from a broad section of the population, and wasn't starting with a 17-18% baseline "green" vote unlike the INDI mofos.

Did one or two particular castes/communities bring down the vote share ? From looking at the BSP vote pattern and also the broader "Jat" region (west UP/HR/north RJ), there is some basis for thinking that these two communities may have been doing the bulk of the vote cutting. If Mayawati could lose 50% of her vote share from 2019 to the INDI parties, it makes sense that BJP could also lose some of the SC voters.

Or did the Hindu population broadly feel a little less enthusiastic about BJP/NDA this time? A lot of people complain about jobs and inflation every time, that is not unique to this election.

Overall, this situation makes me lean towards two main issues:

(1) Election mismanagement: candidates, campaigning, BJP-RSS coordination
(2) On top of that, misinformation and fake videos that further "confirmed" some people's fears, particularly about reservations...again, the SCs come to mind here.

To get definite answers, one needs to know the constituency and sub-constituency vote shares/patterns. People of different castes/communities are not homogeneously dispersed across even one constituency. Only the party organization has enough resources to get this kind of information and work from that.

One question is still bothering me: 8% drop in vote share is a lot more than the 3% error margin of most scientifically conducted exit polls. Opinion polls before the election can be way off the mark since things can change quickly near/on election day. But exit polls are after the fact, they shouldn't be missing such a large drop in vote share in Bharat's largest state - we are not talking about Goa or Tripura here. And furthermore all the 3-4 exit polls got it wrong.

Now some people will just say "all the pollsters are useless", but it is a fact that a properly designed statistical sample is the most reliable way to estimate actual vote shares. There are no reliable "tea leaf readers" who can predict elections just by hanging around the state, astrology etc, unless you have statistically credible information. None of these people have a credible record, they might just be right one day (broken clock effect).

Is it possible that a lot of people coming out of the voting booth said they voted for BJP but actually didn't ?

[Aditya_V]

Plus a few % would like to state but the would have voted for Rs. 1Lakh and not like to talk about it, afterall who does not like free cash.

Today a Salaried person upto 7.5 lakhs- i.e & lakhs plus 50K Standard Deduction is Tax free, throughout the 10 years of UPA it 2.5 lakhs, many small amount Middle class people have been freed from paying Income Tax, Private Limited Companies in key areas pay 25% IT plus Tax in the hands of shareholders for Dividends.

It is easy to crib, and some hidden INC supporters(outwardly BJP) will try spread only negativity around.

Can BJP do better- off course it can , but lets not give the post to the person scoring 15% and saying 85% of the wrong marks are right and fitch the person scoring 45% striving to go to 60% then 70% etc.

and Mark my words they INC supporters are behaving, this 2024 verdict will ensure a 2029 victory for BJP.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/Sanjay_Dixit/status/1801127862650466621

[chetak]

Plus a few % would like to state but the would have voted for Rs. 1Lakh and not like to talk about it, afterall who does not like free cash.

Today a Salaried person upto 7.5 lakhs- i.e & lakhs plus 50K Standard Deduction is Tax free, throughout the 10 years of UPA it 2.5 lakhs, many small amount Middle class people have been freed from paying Income Tax, Private Limited Companies in key areas pay 25% IT plus Tax in the hands of shareholders for Dividends.

It is easy to crib, and some hidden INC supporters(outwardly BJP) will try spread only negativity around.

Can BJP do better- off course it can , but lets not give the post to the person scoring 15% and saying 85% of the wrong marks are right and fitch the person scoring 45% striving to go to 60% then 70% etc.

and Mark my words they INC supporters are behaving, this 2024 verdict will ensure a 2029 victory for BJP.

Aditya_V ji,


vi@ rishi bagree

By all means, crib about taxes but first understand what is happening and the situation on the ground


Income tax exemption limit.

UPA Govt - No tax below Rs 200000/-
Modi Govt - No tax below Rs 700000/-

The income tax exemption limit has been raised by 3.5 times which excluded 3 crore ppl from paying tax.

Only 2.9% of the population pays Income tax in India.

Some Hard Facts for you :

₹2 lakh - India’s Per Capita Income
₹7.5 Lakh - Income exempted from Income Tax

Tell me one nation where 3.5x of Per capita income is exempted.

Only 2.9% Indians pay Income tax whereas 97.1% public is exempted.

Personal Income Tax Stats :

India's population: 140 cr
Total PAN cards: 61 cr
Aadhar linked PAN : 48 cr
Direct tax return filers: 8.5 cr
Actual tax payers in that: 3.5 cr

So 2.9% actually pay direct income tax

[vijayk]

Deepak Singh @smarket

The 2024 election has taught us one thing:

Mainstream media in India now has zero influence
The real power is with YouTube/Instagram stars and they are the ones setting the real narrative.

Most of the BJP supporters on YouTube don't sound authentic and do not produce engaging content PLUS they talk down and think very highly of themselves.

I think if BJP does not fix this gap, youth already lost ... they influenced parents too ...

Most of the disinformation in 2024

- Quotas will be gone
- Constitution will be changed
- Unemployment
- Local MP is bad .. so lets vote him out
- GST

Modi's team just ignored most of the disinformation and lies

[fanne]

Worth a read, whatever you may feel about it.
https://thewire.in/politics/the-subvers ... y-properly

My take, and it is not backed by data, just a gut feeling based on whatever I have been hearing and reading -

I wouldn't put past the Wire team to purposely obfuscate the data. She may be lying about OBC moving away from BJP, when the conventional wisdom is that SC votes moved away from BSP and BJP to SP (because of reservation will get hit, AI and everything was used). They would want to confuse BJP and its supporter.

Having said that, my gut feeling is that because of many social welfare scheme, the movement of SC votes was there but not great. Good chunk went to SP, but decent amount of OBC voters also moved away to SP/Congress. We know the reason for SC movement. We do not know the reason for OBC movement. This if not researched well can doom the BJP. It gets more than 50% of its votes from this group.

As Dubey ji says, booth/area level analysis is needed to conclude who moved. Typically, at booth level, you have preprodence of 1 caste (or two) and by comparing it with historical data, you can figure out who moved in what area and then figure out the cause and the remedy.

What is bothering me is that, the powers that be have already concluded the reasons, and are skipping this analysis phase.

[fanne]

People who keep on bringing GST makes the whole argument suspect. GST does not effect 90% of the voters. GST with its many exception clauses, exempt people who have Gross revenue less than 72 lakhs a year. If you are in informal economy, you are not counted. Another way to look at it is that people who have paid through GST, would typically have high income and would be paying income tax. 7.5% OF THE POPULATION FILES INCOME TAX AND ONLY 2.5% pays it. Many of them are salaried people.

So then why does GST and even demonetization keeps on coming back, specially by Rajkumar? Simple, GST has taken away the power (there are still some item not in GST) of state govt to bend policies at their whim and make money out of it (Delhi -Liquor scandal is prime example). Con wants back so that it has the ability to do corruption at state level and perpetuate itself.

What about demonetization? Why go to court to make it an illegal decision or say we will overturn it? It was already done and dusted. Because someone in Con system is still sitting on billions of demonetized notes, so that they can cash it in once it becomes legal tender.

Whenever you read GST or demonetization, you know the source for it.The analysis that follows from there is highly suspect.

[vijayk]

fanneji - Disinformation on GST has to be countered. BJP ignores it. You have to counter. Same thing with Petrol prices. The state Govt. increases their VAT and blames Modi for that. No one counters

[KL Dubey]

What is bothering me is that, the powers that be have already concluded the reasons, and are skipping this analysis phase.

I hope the party is doing a detailed analysis and using the results productively. Not everything needs to come out in public media - probably the most important results should not be seen in media at all.

[vijayk]

Unparalleled Insights @Antardrshti

3 Major signals missed by even the Top Political Analysts

1. Elon Musk suddenly cancelling meeting with Modi, before elections

2. Modi changing gear of campaign all of a sudden after Phase 1 (NDA won just 30 of 102 seats in Phase 1

3. BJP reach out to JDU, TDP, BRS, ADMK, BJD, SAD, SSU for alliance and eventually allied with JDU and TDP. All of us thought that this was a desperation to win 400 but in reality this was to ensure 272.

So Modi had the real info, so did CIA and foreign intelligence. One wonders show 33 different professional exit polls missed out on this despite having access to so much resources.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/TheTreeni/status/1801262559850295305
Treeni @TheTreeni
Mumbai, Maharashtra: The BJP Govt has decided to allocate Rs 10 crore for the Waqf board, having already approved Rs 2 crore on June 10, 2024.

VHP criticized this decision, stating that even the previous Congress government did not engage in such appeasement.

VHP has warned the BJP govt that it may face backlash from the people during elections if the decision is not reversed.

[OmkarC]

Interesting post/data driven insight @vijayk.

However, BJP did not reach out to AIADMK, BRS, BJD from what I know. BJP was approached for alliance by all three and in retrospect, rightfully refused. In fact in TG, BJP lost assembly polls due to suspicion of potential nexus w/ BRS.

And furthermore, it was not BJP that approached TDP, it was Pawan Kalyan, who arranged a truce/reconciliation of the two parties.

That said, it is heartwarming to see that the first thing CBN did after winning polls was to go to Tirumala and promised to protect sanctity of that place. Hope this trickles down to supporting Modiji in protecting Hindu interests across the nation.

[Aditya_V]

AIDMK did not approach BJP, some of thier leaders have been bought over by DMK, they are happy loosing all elections after Jayalalitha died. The cadres are uneasy and there will major shift after 2026 elections.

The DMK AIDMK gameplan was I.N.D.I alliance will win, Raja, Maran and Baalu will get the central loot, give AIDMK the 2026 state whose coffers are very less and nothing much to loot. NDA 3.0 has been a disaster for them. Now DMK is forced go all out for state elections after which plans will unravel after 2026 state elections when the AIDMK middle level leadership and cadres will force these DMK pangolin out.

[vijayk]

Interesting post/data driven insight @vijayk.

However, BJP did not reach out to AIADMK, BRS, BJD from what I know. BJP was approached for alliance by all three and in retrospect, rightfully refused. In fact in TG, BJP lost assembly polls due to suspicion of potential nexus w/ BRS.

And furthermore, it was not BJP that approached TDP, it was Pawan Kalyan, who arranged a truce/reconciliation of the two parties.

That said, it is heartwarming to see that the first thing CBN did after winning polls was to go to Tirumala and promised to protect sanctity of that place. Hope this trickles down to supporting Modiji in protecting Hindu interests across the nation.

Yes.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/swati_gs/status/1801146496420806707

Anurag Verma was just 14. He fell to bullets of Jihadi terrorists during his family’s visit to Vaishnodevi Devi mandir

Heartbreaking scenes of his funeral in village Banakatwa in Balrampur district of UP

Here is Pappu/Stalin/Mamta/Kujli all openly supporting jihadis/Khalistanis/terrorists/Pakis making fund of Rama

Here is Modiji and his cabinet not inimical to Hindus but doing more financial goods for Pasmandas/Muslims but not appeasing directly. They don't seem to be tough against terror anymore. Just holding the line. The attacks on Upper caste via LJ, SC/ST act etc are brazen. The open SM war on anyone condemning Islamic terror is brazen. But no action. How do Hindus feel? They are just voting for caste.

[OmkarC]

https://x.com/TheTreeni/status/1801262559850295305
Treeni @TheTreeni
Mumbai, Maharashtra: The BJP Govt has decided to allocate Rs 10 crore for the Waqf board, having already approved Rs 2 crore on June 10, 2024.

VHP criticized this decision, stating that even the previous Congress government did not engage in such appeasement.

VHP has warned the BJP govt that it may face backlash from the people during elections if the decision is not reversed.

I found this video that could potentially explain why MH people still respect Sharad Pawar and how he keeps winning despite all odds (not taking away the role of rumor mongering of changing the constitution & removing reservations in his victory). Key point in the first 8-10 mins.

People in general, not just Marathi folks, have inherent respect for fighters - esp those who are perceived as fighting against all odds and show strong character. NaMo got that respect for being persecuted unfairly for 2002 Gujarat riots, for fighting against the corrupt system in 2014 and for standing up against Paki aggression at Pulwama in 2019, while SP seems to have received that respect for battling cancer at 84 yrs of age and simultaneously fighting elections.

Rather than letting him go into oblivion by ignoring him, BJP unnecessarily split his party and seems to have turned him into a bigger legend for having to deal w/ betrayal of his own family members on top of everything else he's dealing with.

[sanjayc]

https://x.com/swati_gs/status/1801146496420806707

Anurag Verma was just 14. He fell to bullets of Jihadi terrorists during his family’s visit to Vaishnodevi Devi mandir

Heartbreaking scenes of his funeral in village Banakatwa in Balrampur district of UP

Here is Pappu/Stalin/Mamta/Kujli all openly supporting jihadis/Khalistanis/terrorists/Pakis making fund of Rama

Here is Modiji and his cabinet not inimical to Hindus but doing more financial goods for Pasmandas/Muslims but not appeasing directly. They don't seem to be tough against terror anymore. Just holding the line. The attacks on Upper caste via LJ, SC/ST act etc are brazen. The open SM war on anyone condemning Islamic terror is brazen. But no action. How do Hindus feel? They are just voting for caste.

An office colleague of mine was a rabid casteist, a Jat from UP. (I am a Jat too.) I managed to turn him around in six months. I explained to him how the primary identity of Muslims and Christians is religion, while Hindus have been brainwashed to have their primary identity as caste, not religion. I told him how this harms Hindus and nullifies the strength they could have got from their numerical majority, and how this screws Hindus during elections, while allowing Abrahamics to punch above their weight. He totally swears by Hinduism now, and says caste should be banned in India and anyone identifying themselves with caste should be jailed. "We are all Hindus -- there is nothing called caste," this is his argument now. So people can be turned around by careful explaining. The problem is, nobody tells them how to think. This is where Hindu Gurus and ashrams have failed us.

[vijayk]

We need someone like Jai Sai Deepak who can be our youtuber/influencer. He has to bring this message over eloquently. We need a way to integrate Dalits and explain them how we can raise their economic status. We need a slick guy who takes every video of Pappu and show him as Paki/Chinese agent day in and day out

[V_Raman]

So Modi had the real info, so did CIA and foreign intelligence. One wonders show 33 different professional exit polls missed out on this despite having access to so much resources.

The scary interpretation is that the BIF made it so to fool voters into thinking BJP is anyway going to win and I need not vote or vote for the opposition to express my anger. The corollary is BJP formed the govt despite all this and it cannot get any worse.

I belive RaGa will eventully come to power. He is young and has lot of time. I repeat - if NaMo reign changes the narrative from 2-steps forward/3-steps backward to 2-steps forward/1-step backwards - durable forward progress - that is a great achievement!

[vijayk]

So Modi had the real info, so did CIA and foreign intelligence. One wonders show 33 different professional exit polls missed out on this despite having access to so much resources.

The scary interpretation is that the BIF made it so to fool voters into thinking BJP is anyway going to win and I need not vote or vote for the opposition to express my anger. The corollary is BJP formed the govt despite all this and it cannot get any worse.

The biggest faults are:

1. BJP went into the war thinking TINA (Modi Modi Modi)
2. They ignored RSS/BJP Ground workers until Phase 1
3. They ignored disinformation attempts on SC/ST quotas and Khatakhat

They realized after Phase and 1 and Phase 2 ...

[chetak]

https://x.com/swati_gs/status/1801146496420806707



Here is Pappu/Stalin/Mamta/Kujli all openly supporting jihadis/Khalistanis/terrorists/Pakis making fund of Rama

Here is Modiji and his cabinet not inimical to Hindus but doing more financial goods for Pasmandas/Muslims but not appeasing directly. They don't seem to be tough against terror anymore. Just holding the line. The attacks on Upper caste via LJ, SC/ST act etc are brazen. The open SM war on anyone condemning Islamic terror is brazen. But no action. How do Hindus feel? They are just voting for caste.

An office colleague of mine was a rabid casteist, a Jat from UP. (I am a Jat too.) I managed to turn him around in six months. I explained to him how the primary identity of Muslims and Christians is religion, while Hindus have been brainwashed to have their primary identity as caste, not religion. I told him how this harms Hindus and nullifies the strength they could have got from their numerical majority, and how this screws Hindus during elections, while allowing Abrahamics to punch above their weight. He totally swears by Hinduism now, and says caste should be banned in India and anyone identifying themselves with caste should be jailed. "We are all Hindus -- there is nothing called caste," this is his argument now. So people can be turned around by careful explaining. The problem is, nobody tells them how to think. This is where Hindu Gurus and ashrams have failed us.

sanjayc ji,


Why do you think that Hindu temples are not under control of the Hindus and that is a colonial legacy embedded deeply with in the divide and rule strategy

The abuse, the insults, the love jihad, the murders is all meant to make you think the less of yourself and your culture.

why is no rightwing party or anyone else for that matter, not willing to discuss the matter of Hindu control of their temples and the open theft of their temple offerings

Is India secular ...

Is India democratic ...

Are we equal under the law ...

Are we truly free ..

Why did they push through the RTE ...

One single amendment could have killed that RTE nonsense by allowing the Hindus to start their own schools, with the same rights as the abrahamics have, why has the allegedly Hindutwa govt not even made a move to what correct is so wrong, morally, civilizationally, culturally, and ethically so very unjust

Why no padma award for Rajiv Malhotra, but Bharat Ratnas' for so many cancerous scum and slimeballs

why did the govt dishonor the sacred memory of kar sewaks who were killed in the Ram Janmabhoomi firings by doing such an evil deed

we have missed the point by a country mile, we have been politically blinded in not being able to see the woods for the trees planted so cunningly by the britshits and watered, fertilized and tended so very carefully by the abrahamics and their BIF masters

[chetak]

The scary interpretation is that the BIF made it so to fool voters into thinking BJP is anyway going to win and I need not vote or vote for the opposition to express my anger. The corollary is BJP formed the govt despite all this and it cannot get any worse.

The biggest faults are:

1. BJP went into the war thinking TINA (Modi Modi Modi)
2. They ignored RSS/BJP Ground workers until Phase 1
3. They ignored disinformation attempts on SC/ST quotas and Khatakhat

They realized after Phase and 1 and Phase 2 ...

Please, lets not delude ourselves, vijayk ji.

An attempt was made in 2019 too. How was that missed/ignored/rubbished/not analysed by or intelligence community and the GoI, or was there a mass feeling of invincibility that led to this cognitive dissonance in 2024

when did the congis, commies and their BIF masters bring into India, entities like cambridge analytica. Try and recollect, sirji

[arshyam]

However, BJP did not reach out to AIADMK, BRS, BJD from what I know. BJP was approached for alliance by all three and in retrospect, rightfully refused.

This is not at all true, and in fact, was the other way around. The BJP central leadership went out via many channels to reach out to the AIADMK (many in the AIADMK wanted an alliance as well), but EPS was adamant wanting to repeat his approach to the 2021 local body elections, where he kept the BJP waiting on alliance talks till the last minute and decided to go ahead separately. This was the data point Annamalai used to predict to the BJP central leadership that EPS wouldn't join NDA, but the central leadership still kept the door open till the last possible minute. AIADMK joining with SDPI put paid to any further hopes and the BJP decided to move on. In fact, due to this wait, they were at risk of alienating other parties in the NDA as the latter weren't getting concrete signals from the BJP on seat sharing, etc.

[vijayk]

[vera_k]

I found this video that could potentially explain why MH people still respect Sharad Pawar and how he keeps winning despite all odds

Maharashtra outside Mumbai-Pune region is still a poor place. Caste and feudal politics rules. Yes, Sharad Pawar broke away from the Congress Party because there's more democracy in Pakistan than in today's INC, but that still fall into the feudal pattern where the local chieftains rule. BJP now is bidding for more Maratha support by getting as many Maratha leaders on board by splitting the Shiv Sena and NCP as a way to win when other issues cannot be used.

[eklavya]

India’s opposition leveraged caste and constitution to shock Modi in election

AYODHYA/VARANASI, India, June 14 (Reuters) - A seminal moment in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's unsuccessful campaign to retain his parliamentary majority occurred days before India's marathon election began in April.

Speaking in the constituency that includes the Hindu temple town of Ayodhya, lawmaker Lallu Singh said that his and Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was seeking a supermajority in parliament's lower chamber to make material changes to the constitution.

Opposition parties latched onto Singh's remark to assert, without evidence, that the BJP would amend modern India's founding document to strip Hindus at the bottom of the caste hierarchy of access to affirmative action policies.

The attack line hit a nerve - splitting the Hindu vote and ending the BJP's decade-long dominance in the country's most populous state.

Opinion polls had pointed to a landslide in Ayodhya's home state of Uttar Pradesh and nationally but when results came through on June 4, the BJP had lost 29 seats in the state - nearly half of all the party's losses nationwide.

"It hit the people like fire," said Awadhesh Prasad of the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP), whose base comprises Muslim and lower-caste voters in Uttar Pradesh. He successfully wrested the constituency anchored by Ayodhya from Singh, who had held it since 2014.
Despite the BJP's best efforts to debunk the emerging narrative, the damage was done.

"The prime minister and other leaders tried to explain to the people, but by then their mood was set," said Dileep Patel, a state BJP official in Varanasi. Singh declined to comment.

[vimal]

^^ Who selected a candidate with the name Lallu Singh. Literally means a loser in Hindi

[S_Madhukar]

Pawar is the Bermuda Triangle that gobbled other Maratha leaders and Maharashtra parties in his neck of the woods. Plus his mega bucks and caste politics to divide and rule and keep himself relevant so far has kept him around. I doubt his next generation will be able to carry this forward hence BJPs desperation in storming Baramati by hook or crook but that has failed this time

[Pratyush]

^^ Who selected a candidate with the name Lallu Singh. Literally means a loser in Hindi

He was a 2 time sitting MP.

The opposition ran a good campaign. You cannot deny that.

[A_Gupta]

Yogi is delving deep into why the BJP failed in UP. If you know Hindi:
https://youtu.be/v3kpBFjFXPU?si=XVWDlgYapGExXRvZ

1. Yogi held 27 meetings in one day in this regard.
2. During covid, Yogi made it a point to go to the worst infected villages and in the village the worst infect family.
3. Commentator says that there is still a faction in the BJP that does not accept Yogi as CM.
4. Now they go into the BJP traitors theory - that this faction in the BJP wanted to weaken Yogi by BJP having a poor performance in his state.
5. Last 7 days schedule of Yogi is discussed.
6. Yogi starts the day at 4 and officers start getting calls by 7; in Akilesh's time it was 11.
7. Yogi has met with everyone who lost.
8. Yogi has no interest in position, he has not assembled a "Yogi faction".
9. There is no minister in UP that Yogi elevated to that post. There was a selection committee; Yogi did not influence them.
10. Regular politician wants officers who get the work done, even if they are corrupt. Yogi wants both effective and honest.
11. Yogi stands outside the BJP party apparatus.

Conclusions - Yogi has full confidence of Modi, Yogi has no favoritism in bureaucrats or party; Yogi is hardworking, honest and efficient. He will be able to find out what happened and make changes.

[LakshmanPST]

In Varanasi seat Modi didn't really lose lot of votes...
What he lost is victory margin due to INC and SP alliance...
----
2019 Elections (Total approx. 10 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 6.75 Lakhs
SP:- 2 Lakhs
INC:- 1.5 Lakhs
----
2024 Elections (Total approx. 11 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 6.12 Lakhs
INC+SP:- 4.6 Lakhs
----
So, around 1 Lakh votes shifted from BJP to INC-SP alliance...
The victory margin decreased due to allaince...
I guess it was the ppl who bought the propaganda of reservation removal, 1 lakh free money etc. that shifted their alliance...
-
Also, we need to analyze seat by seat comparing 2019 and 2024...
Alliance between SP and INC would have been the game changer here...
Since it is Modi's seat, he was able to retain it... I wonder how many seats BJP lost due to alliance... No one seems to have done this study...

[vijayk]

^^ Where did SP+INC get 1.1 Lakh more votes?