Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[drnayar]

Macron is that weak kneed French president who lost Africa, now losing Europe, losing its industrial competitiveness, over run by Islamists and having literally no locus standi in European politics. poor guy is struggling to stay relevant and cornered to the wall, so what does he do?

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/Sprinterfactory/status/17 ... 3976989121 ---> The French ambassador was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry building, and within just minutes of his departure, the French Foreign Ministry issued a statement confirming that France would not send any military forces to Ukraine.

VIDEO: https://x.com/Sprinterfactory/status/17 ... 0626675006 ---> We are not at war with Russia or the Russian people, and we have no desire for regime change in Moscow: Macron.

[dnivas]

X-Post from the Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy thread...

An entire generation of Ukrainians are no longer alive due to Zelensky's stupidity.
…

So has Russia lost a generation too.

What was Ukraine supposed to do when invaded?

Both sides are going to continue to suffer tremendous losses for a long while yet. War is not ending any time soon.

Russians have lost a generation only if you read economist, bloomberg and forbes which you very liberally link here. I think also if you follow the rags, US delivers democracy every day of the year to many countries on the planet.

[dnivas]

^^^
There is a difference in will to fight when it is your country you are defending vs invading.

Let’s see if your year-end prediction comes true. If not, then let’s circle back and let us know why it didn’t happen.

I agree completely. The LHR and DPR have been defending against the NATO trained bandera army that was trying to implement anglo saxon rules based order in Eastern Ukraine.

[vijayk]

The lesson to be learnt is

Don't pick fight with opponent because of the scums in US. Look at ethnic brothers who destroyed each other because of $$ from necons

[sanman]

Why is Former NATO Commander Adm James Stavridis making such loose comments about 'neutralizing' Kaliningrad?

Are Biden officials trying to provoke more escalation with Russia?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZyC8P2HXqk

[Pratyush]

You don't play territorial games with a nuclear power.

That lesson seems to have been lost in Washington these days.

[chetak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq_5SZ4hNQI



'Zelensky Conned Us': Ex-British PM Adviser Blasts West, Says 'Putin Knew We Were Jokers Before War'







A british political strategist dominic cummings dissed the west and said its fight against Russia had been a "disaster" amid ukraine war.

He claimed that western sanctions had only strengthened russia-china relations.

The ex-british official also called ukraine a "corrupt s**thole".

[sanman]

Russians gong to conduct exercises in the southern military district, for use of tactical nuclear weapons:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Anl9DKjHnmc

[drnayar]

also reports of Russian nuclear weapons bunkers in Belarus .. looks like the Russians are preparing for a nuclear war and a fallout ?!

[S_Madhukar]

At what point Russia will do a nook test somewhere to send a message ?

[Cyrano]

Nope. Why do all that when they are already slow roasting NATO?

[drnayar]

At what point Russia will do a nook test somewhere to send a message ?

Russia needs to probe the NATO's red lines now

[drnayar]

Russia for starters needs to do a PR [public relations] nuclear weapons test ., maybe a 500 megaton hydrogen bomb , but before that use hardened communications , let the EMP knock out all NATO comms

[sanman]

Shoigu is replaced in national security shakeup, as Russia deploys tactical nukes

Good analysis by Col Douglas MacGregor

https://www.youtube.com/live/uswQ9w5wET ... pU5h&t=819

[sanman]

Russian economy doing fine, western sanctions fall flat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdrrFWymmFg

[Rakesh]

See both pictures below

https://x.com/DanCollins2011/status/1791066158323368069 ---> I told him China needs to stop working with Russia. Two weeks later….

[sanman]

Meanwhile imperial flunky Blinken was sent to play the fiddle, since Emperor Biden was too dazed to:

[sanman]

Lavrov not impressed by threats:

https://x.com/AttentiveCEE/status/1795329448683970626

[srai]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... toon#img-1

[sanman]

Mearsheimer against gives good commentary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iai9iSYxOlI

[sanman]

It's not the US which is really the enemy -- it's the NeoCons who are the enemy.

And they're everybody's enemy -- including ours.

[sanman]

Good speech by Robert Fico, the Slovak PM now on the mend after being shot 5 times by a pro-Ukraine assassin:

[sanman]

Russia Sending Warships to Caribbean for Military Exercises, As Tensions With US Mount Over Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ships ... 6e4ad7516d

US Jupiter missiles in Turkey resulted in Soviet missiles being sent to Cuba in 1962.
So it seems natural that US missiles being lobbed from Ukraine will result in Russia sending missiles to Cuba.
Why would it be a one-way affair?

Will we see another Cuban Missile Crisis again, like in 1962?
If so, would China somehow see that as an opportunity to hit us again, like in 1962?

[mody]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Internationa ... =111090880

The west to give a loan of $50 Billion to Ukraine, backed by interest generated on frozen Russian assets.

The money would come from interest accrued on some $300 billion.

G7 leaders on Thursday agreed to lend Ukraine $50 billion this year -- backed by profits from frozen Russian assets -- to help the country's war effort and rebuilding.
…

"Ukraine is still going to have a large financial need next year and beyond and this summit is our best chance to act collectively to close the gap… This agreement is a signal from the leading democracies of the world, that we're not going to fatigue and defending Ukraine's freedom and that Putin is not going to outlast us."

…

Funds will be used for military, budget, humanitarian, and reconstruction support.

…
"How are we going to get repaid? Russia pays…the income comes from the interest stream on the immobilized asset," the official said. "The principal is untouched for now, but we have full optionality to seize the principal later if the political will is there."

The official added that "if there is a peace settlement, either the assets stay immobilized. And keep generating interest to repay the loans or Russia pays for the damage it's caused. Either way, there's a source of repayment."
…

[mody]

Another so called redline on the cusp of being crossed.
Russia has warned that it will take steps to counter this. However, the question is what are the steps that Russia can take? They have already seized some of the assets of Western companies and banks in Russia. However, these are nowhere close to the Russian assets that the west has seized.

Are there any concrete steps that Russia can take on its own or options are mainly limited to lobbying other countries and hope for a fallout, wherein other countries like the Saudi's, China and many others slowly but steadly withdraw their assets from western banks and financial institutions and move them back home or to other financial entities?

In some ways the unprecedented sanctions that the west has levied on Russia has had a collateral effect. The Chinese credit card processing system and the Indian RuPay were initiated directly as a response to the withdrawal of VISA and MC from the Russian market post 2014. The withdrawal happened practically overnight and prompted a lot of thinking in countries like India, China etc.

In the current case, the question is what are the practical steps that Russia can take to counter the above move?

[Yogi_G]

There is nothing Russia can do about it. It means a lot of trouble for Putin though, he let the oligarchs grow rich for their trust and support. Now thsoe frozen funds, assets/yachts/accounts/villas etc will result in a big headache for all involved. There is no problem Putin cannot solve, however a bunch of angry crazy billionaires isnt something that will be easy for Putin to handle. Yet another below the belt action by the Germanic tribes.

[Pratyush]

Putin had been asking the oligarchs to repatriate the assets back to Russia for several years before 2022.

So if the oligarchs lose money. It's not Putin's fault.

But it does send a message to other nations oligarchs to either repatriate assets or risk a potential seizure. That in turn will further weaken the institutional domination enjoyed by the west.

[Aditya_V]

I see Chinese Govt and Chinese businesses pulling out money from the West, I hope RBI also focusses on acquiring more gold rather than currencies which can be seized at any moment, I hope the Western Banking system actually goes ahead and seizes the Money of BIF politicians- will not happen.

But it means one thing- might is right, pen is never mightier than the sword.

[mody]

Putin had been asking the oligarchs to repatriate the assets back to Russia for several years before 2022.

So if the oligarchs lose money. It's not Putin's fault.

But it does send a message to other nations oligarchs to either repatriate assets or risk a potential seizure. That in turn will further weaken the institutional domination enjoyed by the west.

The frozen accounts villas and yachts of oligarchs are a different issue. The current consensus reached at the G7 summit is to use the interest generated on the frozen $300 Billion of Russian sovereign foreign currency assets to underwrite a loan of $50 billion to Ukraine!! Also, confiscating the $300 billion of Russian sovereign assets in the future to repay loans given to Ukraine (basically western countries paying themselves) and for funding reconstruction in Ukraine has not been ruled out. Though that red line would be crossed sometime in the future, if the political will is there at the time in the western capitals.

Russia has said that using the interest generated on Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine would be a criminal act and that there would be serious and "painful" consequences. However, it is not clear as to what steps Russia could take to hit back at the west.
A collateral damage of West's action will definitely be a reduction in business to western banks, as countries around the world will take note of this action and progressively reduce the assets that they keep with Western financial institutions. This is bound to happen and is already underway. Just recently, India moved a 100 tons of sovereign gold assets held with Bank of England, back to India. India was paying Bank of England to hold these assets. Now, Bank of England looses out on these fees. However, the fees aren't a big deal. It is more symbolic that the trustworthy ness of these institutions is reducing and more and more countries will try to move their assets or spread them a little more to mitigate the risk.

In the present case, most of the Russian assets are held in Brussels and I had read somewhere that Russia could potentially target the subsidiaries of the concerned banks, which are in other countries. However, not sure how they could do that.

My question was particularly about any direct action that Russia could potentially take, to hit back at western financial institutions. If any more knowledgeable people know of any options that they could consider, please enlighten.

[Lisa]

^ Trump advisers discuss penalties for nations that move away from dollar

https://www.business-standard.com/world ... 159_1.html

[R Charan]

Moscow Repeatedly Ignored Pleas to Repatriate Indian Citizens from Ukraine War

India is intensifying efforts to retrieve the bodies of two Punjabi men killed in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict after being recruited as "security helpers" by the Russian military.

Government sources reveal that Russia has not responded favorably to India's repeated requests since the beginning of the year to urgently repatriate these recruits, despite the escalating risks they face. This lack of cooperation has raised serious concerns in New Delhi, prompting a firm response from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

https://defence.in/threads/moscow-repea ... -war.7421/

[Pratyush]

^ Trump advisers discuss penalties for nations that move away from dollar

https://www.business-standard.com/world ... 159_1.html

Good.

The harder the USA tries to maintain itself. The weaker it's going to get.

[mody]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz994d6vqe5o

Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding.

A report to this effect on BBC, just shows how bad the situation really is. Wonder how Ukraine will keep finding men to send to the frontlines.
Also, goes to show the extent of losses in manpower that Ukraine has suffered since the start of the war. Total casualty count in KIA and injured/incapacitated might be nearing 1 million by now.

In the future, once the war ends, I also suspect there will be some social tension between those who served in the military (and survived) and those that did not serve. The more neo nazi inclined amongst those who served might even create trouble for those who did not serve in the military. This would also apply to any of the Ukrainians immigrants, who for some reason choose to return to the country after the end of the war.

[Rakesh]

Were'nt we supposed to get NASAMS from Amreeka?

U.S. Diverting Missiles From Foreign Customers To Ukraine Could Have Repercussions Beyond Air Defense
https://www.twz.com/air/u-s-diverting-m ... ir-defense
20 June 2024

[Pratyush]

There was a discussion to acquire it. But I haven't seen any further progress in terms of procurement.

[Rakesh]

My fault for not being clear in my post. I was being sarcastic onlee.

MUTUs were giving gyan on BRF to rely on the MIC that never stops production and from the bottomless pit of Amreeki weapon stocks.

[Haresh]

Jeffrey Sachs explains to Piers Morgan how the West provoked Russia.

https://x.com/ricwe123/status/180380621 ... _&ref_url=

[srai]

EU - Ukraine 10-year Security deal signed.

Ukraine has also signed security pacts with individual EU countries as well.

[hgupta]

EU - Ukraine 10-year Security deal signed
....
Ukraine has also signed security pacts with individual EU countries as well.

Ukraine just torpedoed any possibility of a peace deal with Russia and basically signed its death warrant. Russia will now march all the way to Kiev and to the Dnieper River and kill the male population of Ukraine from the age of 13 to age of 65.