2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[vijayk]

https://x.com/jay_baaz/status/1801980940111253766
The social media accounts were suppressed from countering fake narratives. Look at the analytics of @Starboy2079

[LakshmanPST]

I checked Faizabad seat... The results in the past three elections are as follows:-
2014 Elections (Total approx. 10.2 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 4.9 Lakhs
SP:- 2.1 Lakhs
BSP:- 1.4 Lakhs
INC:- 1.3 Lakhs
SP + BSP + INC:- 4.8 Lakhs
----
2019 Elections (Total approx. 10.9 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 5.3 Lakhs
SP+BSP:- 4.6 Lakhs
INC:- 0.5 Lakhs
----
2024 Elections (Total approx. 11.4 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 5 Lakhs
INC+SP:- 5.5 Lakhs
BSP:- 0.5 Lakhs
----
If you observe, this is a very close seat even back in 2014...
2014, the opposition was split...
2019, some BSP votes (I guess SC/OBC votes) went to BJP instead of Mahaghatbandhan...
2024, those votes went to INC+SP alliance...

Had 25-30k voters voted BJP instead of INC+SP alliance, BJP would have won this seat...

So, all the stories about Ayodhya people voting against BJP seem baseless to me...
It is the propaganda of Reservations removal that really effected BJP...

[A_Gupta]

^^^ SP + BSP + INC went 4.8 lakhs, 5.1 lakhs, 6.0 lakhs, BJP went 4.9, 5.3, 5.

[Ambar]

^^^ SP + BSP + INC went 4.8 lakhs, 5.1 lakhs, 6.0 lakhs, BJP went 4.9, 5.3, 5.

It is not just about Faizabad but 43 other lok sabha seats NDA lost in UP. The what is easy to explain but not the why. For all the talk of Yogi's candidates would have won had they not been sidelined by Amit Shah/Nadda, the signs of BJP's 2024 loss were there in 2022 assembly itself. BJP won 57 less seats than it did in 2017. Out of the 255 seats it won, 62 seats were won with a margin of less than 10,000 votes (less we forget, UP is a densely populated state where many assembly seats have 500k+ voters). Just like 2024, in 2022 assembly too BJP;s weakness was in Bundelkhand, Purvanchal and parts of central UP. In 2022, SaPa/INC gained significantly because the long anticipated BSP vote shift finally began. The result was that while BSP got decimated (won a historic low of 1 seat in UP assembly), BJP too suffered a pretty big dent in seats. This trend strenghened in 2024 which resulted in NDA getting 26 less seats. BJP's advantage in the past elections was getting the non-jatav SC votes, non-yadav obc, consolidation of upper caste votes and split of muslim votes between SaPa/BSP/AIMIM. What we are seeing now is SC (both jatav and non-jatav), yadav and muslim votes consolidating towards the SP/INC camp.

I think an olive branch to Mayawati from BJP is not a matter of if but a matter of when to bring back the SC votes. The upper caste hindu votes can be won back with decent candidate selection and some discipline over loose lips. Credit is where credit is due, everyone thought SaPa and RJD were finished after Mulayam Singh Yadav's demise and Lalu Prasad Yadav taking a backseat due to old age and health, but both Akhilesh Yadav and Tejaswi have done a good job of bringing their parties back from the brink.

[V_Raman]

It is always known that an election will be close in a 1:1 fight. Consolidation is the only way forward for the opposition. But I dont think the can stay in power without a single large party to keep them together. That is where congress mukht slogan is important.

[vimal]

^^ Everyone ignoring the fact that every year a particular peaceful community pumps out more kids who become the largest vote bank for non-BJP parties. It’s a matter of years before it becomes impossible for BJP to win.

[V_Raman]

Durable solution is delimitation and expansion of seats. I think BJP knew about 2024 and passed the Women's reservation bill quickly before election start.

[SRajesh]

Ramanji
Yes Delimitation but for that Census needs to take place and the issue there will be the clamour for caste census!!
There in lies the main problem : Caste which is the main reason of division of the Hindu polity.
The resurgence of SaPa and RJD are nothing but going back to their roots of Caste vote consolidation also some clever sloganeering during the election.
The peacefuls will vote as the block regardless who is in the combo as long as they perceive they will have the veto power!!(and more importantly green light to street fights).
This election was Mandal vs Kammandal but BJP thought they had blurred the lines of caste division with two previous resounding wins.
Thus election shows that society still runs (both urban and rural) along on the caste lines and people clever enough can utilies it to split the society again will use it.
I agree with Amberji that BJP needs to get their act together for UP elections and either make overtures to Behenji and find even leverage in non-Jatavs to get them to move away from SaPa
Sad to say but that is what BJP needs a bit of Mandal arthmetic with some clever politiking : Rajputs+Jats+OBC+SC/ST to root for them.

[Sicanta]

This NEET issue will bite BJP in the long run. There is definitely more here than what the Govt is letting on so far. In gujarat, one entire centre has been busted for cheating and NTA coordinator arrested. In bihar, arrests have been made for leaking the paper. Still the education minister maintains that the exam was fair!

If the students go for dharna/pradarshan, the Govt position will be very weak.

[williams]

Ramanji
Yes Delimitation but for that Census needs to take place and the issue there will be the clamour for caste census!!
There in lies the main problem : Caste which is the main reason of division of the Hindu polity.
The resurgence of SaPa and RJD are nothing but going back to their roots of Caste vote consolidation also some clever sloganeering during the election.
The peacefuls will vote as the block regardless who is in the combo as long as they perceive they will have the veto power!!(and more importantly green light to street fights).
This election was Mandal vs Kammandal but BJP thought they had blurred the lines of caste division with two previous resounding wins.
Thus election shows that society still runs (both urban and rural) along on the caste lines and people clever enough can utilies it to split the society again will use it.
I agree with Amberji that BJP needs to get their act together for UP elections and either make overtures to Behenji and find even leverage in non-Jatavs to get them to move away from SaPa
Sad to say but that is what BJP needs a bit of Mandal arthmetic with some clever politiking : Rajputs+Jats+OBC+SC/ST to root for them.

You nailed it sir. That is the right solution. However, BJP also need to figure out how to blur these lines. It is very important if we need to achieve Congress Mukt Bharat.

[SRajesh]

NEET will one of the points or the Point of contention in LS and there will be a clamour for JPC or retired SC judge to investigate and give a stinging report just in time for the state assembly elections

[sanjayc]

Ramanji
Yes Delimitation but for that Census needs to take place and the issue there will be the clamour for caste census!!
There in lies the main problem : Caste which is the main reason of division of the Hindu polity.
The resurgence of SaPa and RJD are nothing but going back to their roots of Caste vote consolidation also some clever sloganeering during the election.
The peacefuls will vote as the block regardless who is in the combo as long as they perceive they will have the veto power!!(and more importantly green light to street fights).
This election was Mandal vs Kammandal but BJP thought they had blurred the lines of caste division with two previous resounding wins.
Thus election shows that society still runs (both urban and rural) along on the caste lines and people clever enough can utilies it to split the society again will use it.
I agree with Amberji that BJP needs to get their act together for UP elections and either make overtures to Behenji and find even leverage in non-Jatavs to get them to move away from SaPa
Sad to say but that is what BJP needs a bit of Mandal arthmetic with some clever politiking : Rajputs+Jats+OBC+SC/ST to root for them.

Can we ban caste legally and constitutionally, and declare all caste-based associations as illegal? Declare it a civil offense to mention one's caste. Will benefit Hindu society (and BJP) immensely, and take the wind out of sail of rabid casteist parties (and the church). Caste is a Christian construct imposed upon Hindus by the British. Banning caste should have been done at Independence itself. We now need to ensure that religion becomes the primary identity of Hindus, and they forget caste ASAP. The best way to do this is to ban it.

[SRajesh]

Sanjayji
That will be a tall ask banning legally
Society as a whole should adopt
One way could be?? for the:
1. Temple back under people care
2. They to appoint archakas from all groups
3. Maths head to uphold such appointments
4. Maths to move away from Brahmin only peetadishwaras
But this is going to take a while
Has to be people’s movement but a major upheaval needed for this
Just to give an example the Britshits needed two major WW to blur the class line even though certain sections of aristocracy still maintain it
Are we ready for such a colossal destruction!!
And I for even for a millisecond would not wish such a destructive event for my people

[fanne]

I think if we can solve problems by banning (and some things can be solved by banning), then let’s ban poverty, cowardiance, immorality, corruption, perhaps more than 2 kids, non super powerlessness’s (will make us superpower as soon as the bill is signed). While at it, we can also legislate banning racism, foreign interference and the likes

[LakshmanPST]

I collected UP General Elections' Data from 2014, 2019 and 2024 Elections, Constituency wise and Party-wise, Total Votes and Vote share.
With the data I checked all kinds of trends...
I'm just sharing my findings here--->

Voting share of BJP is same in 2014 and 2024...
What made the difference is that back in 2014, SP, BSP and INC contested separately...
In 2024, SP & INC contested together... In addition to it, almost 10% of BSP voteshare shifted to SP & INC...
That is why BJP lost seats...
In 2019, SP and BSP contested together... However, part of BSP vote shifted to BJP... Almost 7.5% points...
This vote transfer saved BJP...
Had this vote transfer not happened, BJP would have been restricted to 37 seats in 2019 itself...
----
Changes in Average No. of Votes per seat are as follows:-

From 2014 to 2024, increase in total average votes per seat is 82,000...
In that, BJP gained only around 39,000 votes...
BSP lost major chunk of their vote from 2014... Around 84,000 votes per seat...
So, from 2014-2024, SP+INC gained a whopping 1,58,000 votes per seat...
----
For future, BJP has only 3 options:-
1) Break Opposition Unity
2) Take back 7.5% Votes from SP+BSP+INC like in 2019
3) Ally with BSP
-
Allying with BSP is the best option, IMO...
Here are the future scenarios for UP seats--->

[chetak]

I collected UP General Elections' Data from 2014, 2019 and 2024 Elections, Constituency wise and Party-wise, Total Votes and Vote share.
With the data I checked all kinds of trends...
I'm just sharing my findings here--->
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GQMAMj-XYAE ... 00x900[img]
Voting share of BJP is same in 2014 and 2024...
What made the difference is that back in 2014, SP, BSP and INC contested separately...
In 2024, SP & INC contested together... In addition to it, almost 10% of BSP voteshare shifted to SP & INC...
That is why BJP lost seats...
In 2019, SP and BSP contested together... However, part of BSP vote shifted to BJP... Almost 7.5% points...
This vote transfer saved BJP...
Had this vote transfer not happened, BJP would have been restricted to 37 seats in 2019 itself...
----
Changes in Average No. of Votes per seat are as follows:-
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GQMN0XqWwAE ... 00x900[img]
From 2014 to 2024, increase in total average votes per seat is 82,000...
In that, BJP gained only around 39,000 votes...
BSP lost major chunk of their vote from 2014... Around 84,000 votes per seat...
So, from 2014-2024, SP+INC gained a whopping 1,58,000 votes per seat...
----
For future, BJP has only 3 options:-
1) Break Opposition Unity
2) Take back 7.5% Votes from SP+BSP+INC like in 2019
3) Ally with BSP
-
Allying with BSP is the best option, IMO...
Here are the future scenarios for UP seats--->
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GQMRmCLXwAE ... 00x900[img]

Well done LakshmanPST ji,

Excellent work.

[Adrija]

What BJP needs to do is not ban caste - which IMHO is impractical- but make a very small change in the RPA (Representation of People’s Act) - the winner should be “majority votes cast” from the current “maximum votes cast”

That will automatically ensure that caste divisions go away at lest in the political field… and this requires a simple legislative act and not in any way a constitutional amendment

What that would mean is that elections n each constituency will need to be two tier- first a general round with all candidates, and then a final round with the top two

[Sicanta]

3 days back, he was claiming no irregularity in NEET

[KL Dubey]

3 days back, he was claiming no irregularity in NEET

Be careful to verify things before posting. Your above posting is mis-information.

Pradhan said earlier that there was no evidence of leaks in the paper. That still stands.

More recently, he has stated that he has found irregularities in the NEET administration (different from paper leaks), and that NEET needs to be improved/reformed ASAP.

Watch his statement here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHWEZf8_JoE

The anchors have a discussion about it afterwards (2:00 onwards), which is good responsible journalism. The sarkar is trying to do a good job here.

[A_Gupta]

On YouTube there is a channel, "National Dastak" with 9.54 million followers.
@NationalDastakBAHUJAN

Seems rabidly anti-BJP. One headline was that Modi will be kicked out of office once the MPs take their oath of office.

Anyone know more about it? Thanks in advance?

[KL Dubey]

On YouTube there is a channel, "National Dastak" with 9.54 million followers.
@NationalDastakBAHUJAN

Seems rabidly anti-BJP. One headline was that Modi will be kicked out of office once the MPs take their oath of office.

Anyone know more about it? Thanks in advance?

Given that all the video headlines I scrolled over have no connection to reality, I am guessing the above headline is also the same.

[A_Gupta]

Sorry, I meant about National Dastak? Who is behind it, etc.?

[KL Dubey]

Sorry, I meant about National Dastak? Who is behind it, etc.?

We can safely assume all these two-bit youtube channels are fed by the droppings of various BIF critters. This particular guy seems to be a BSP member.

[KL Dubey]

For future, BJP has only 3 options:-
1) Break Opposition Unity
2) Take back 7.5% Votes from SP+BSP+INC like in 2019
3) Ally with BSP

Very nice work. At least it lends credence to the main hypotheses behind the UP losses. Couple of comments:

- You list three options, but they are not mutually exclusive. The BJP can pursue more than one, or all three, as needed.

- I would prefer option 2, which is the easiest and most natural. In fact I would say this is mandatory, and not an option. Votes jumped ship not because the INDI clowns were considered to be competent, but because of resentment/fear of supposed BJP intentions. Reverse that sentiment through ground-level work and developmental initiatives, and the votes will start coming back. There is ample time till VS 2027.

- If Mayawati agrees to be an accommodating partner and BJP is interested, then I agree now is the best time to start thinking about it. BSP vote share has plummeted below 10% and there may be common cause with BJP to bring the SC vote back. If option 2 (or options 2 + 3) are effectively done, I don't think INC will have any significance left, and there will be no need to "break" SP-INC.

In LS 2024 Mayawati refused to ally with INDI because she thought the vote transfer would be unidirectional and would not benefit her. But her votes ran away to SP+INC even without any alliance.

So now it will be interesting to see what her next steps will be.

Will she still plan on Yogi decimating INDI in 2027 in order to emerge as the principal opposition, or will she try to go with the BJP, or throw in the towel and join INDI?

The BSP X account is pretty dormant, but Mayawati is active. Her latest posts are supporting Modi sarkar actions in J&K.

[A_Gupta]

If anyone has an eye on those circles, to what does the INDI alliance and specifically Congress attribute its improved performance in the elections?

1. Are they doing analysis? Or are they believing their own rhetoric - "India rejects fascism?", etc.?
2. What are they saying? Most interestingly, are they misdiagnosing the causes for their improvements?

[Pratyush]

They are blaming the BJP/ RSS workers apathy for the improved performance of congress.

There is no deeper reflection of what has happened. That could be a misdirection. But Congress under Rahul doesn't appear capable of deeper analysis.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/sreeramjvc/status/1802703840674013470

JVC Sreeram (Bulls Eye) @sreeramjvc
DMK Alliance has lost 10% of its votes in 2024 compared to 2019.

This isn’t small.

MNM openly supported DMK+ which meant they started with 56.82% of votes.

Don’t say that MNM votes are irrelevant.

For NDA to push DMK+ 10% down is the 1st step for victory of Sh @annamalai_k

[vijayk]

MH 2019 vs 2024

2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indi ... aharashtra




BJP 25(23) 14,912,139 27.84% Increase0.28%
Shiv Sena 23(18) 12,589,064 23.5% Increase2.68%
Total 27,501,203 51.14%

NCP 19(4) 8,387,363 15.66% Decrease0.45%
INC 25(1) 8,792,237 16.41% Decrease1.88%
Total 17,179,599 32.07%


Votes cast / turnout 5,40,54,245 60.95
Registered voters 8,86,76,946 100.0

Region wise



2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indi ... aharashtra

BJP 28(9) 14,913,914 26.18% Decrease 1.66
SHS 15(7) 7,377,674 12.95% Decrease 10.55
NCP 4(1) 2,053,757 3.60% Decrease 11.96
Total 24,812,627 43.55% Decrease 7.79[a]

INC 17(13) 9,641,856 16.92% Increase 0.51
SS(UBT) 21(9) 9,522,797 16.52%
NCP(SP) 10(8) 5,851,166 10.27% Increase 05

Total 25,015,819 43.71% Increase 11.64

RSP 467,282 0.82% Increase 0.82 1 0 Steady
Total 24,812,627 43.55% Decrease 7.79[a] 48 17 Decrease 26


Region wise


Overall analysis

SS(UBT) retained majority of their vote share 95 LAKH votes vs Shinde camp of 73 LAKH in 2024. SS united had 1.25 Crore in 2019.

SO SS(UBT) got additional 45 LAKH VOTES even tough they contests 2 LESS seats

INC got 96 LAKH VOTES in 2024 vs 88 LAKH in 2019 even tough they contested in 8 LESS seats

BJP vote share looks same 1.49 LAKH crore in 2019 and 2024 but they contested 3 MORE seats

NCP(SP) had 83 LAKH in 2019 vs 58 LAKH in 2024 but they contested only in 9 LESS seats in 2024

So INC had substantial increase of 8 LAKH votes with 8 LESS seats. SS(UBT) got more votes than their share even though they contested LESS.

I will do regional wise analysis later

[KL Dubey]

Glad to see BRF people doing analysis. The wiki data resources are very good for election analysis.

[ramana]

Andhra Pradesh 2024 election is a master class in election politics.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Andh ... y_election

In 2019 the vote share in % was:
Jagan- 49.95 (151)

TDP- 39.17 (24)
Jana Sena- 5.53 (1)
BJP- 0.84(0)

Total- 45.54% <49.95

NOTA -1.28

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Andh ... y_election

In 2024 the vote share in % is:

Jagan- 39.37 (11)

TDP- 45.56 (135)
Jana Sena - 6.85 (21)
BJP- 2.83 (8)

Total- 55.24 >39.37
NOTA-1.09!
This explains the rout of YCP.

I submit Modi factor in AP 2024 is 55.24- 45.54 = ~10%
Analysts might say its only 2% the delta between 2.83 and 0.84.
However, there is a definite Modi factor in both TDP and JS wins.

This is a combination of anti-incumbency, NaMo popularity, and the Jagan voters moving away and noting that NDA as they felt there was a chance to overthrow Jagan.

Jagan's drop is ~10% which is the winning margin for NDA.

Also means AP is swinging between YCP and NDA.

Sad that there are morons who still vote NOTA in a wave election.

[vijayk]

Completed analysis of Northern Maharashtra

Overall


Northern MH



2019 BJP 5 SS 1 NDA 6-0
2024 INC 2 NCP (SP) 1 and SS 1 BJP -2 NDA 2 INDI 4

Leaving Nashik alone which seems to be stronghold oof SS NDA should have at least 5-1 but ended up 2-3+1

Dhule (-33K), Dindori(-100K), Nandurbar(-50K) - Lost 33K to 100K votes where as INC won Nandurbar (+200K), Dhule (+200K).
Dindori was won by NCP(SP) (+200K) and BJP lost (+100K)

Jalagon and Raver - BJP retained with a loss of -25-30K but here also INDI pulled in +50K to +100K

Is it Maratha quota or Maratha anger against BJP or is it 8500 affect or is it SC worry?

How did CON/NCP gained +200K in vote share? There is something fishy there because voting percent didn't go up?

[Aditya_V]

The rains last year were poor affecting Drinking water supply coupled with a heat wave plus prediction of easy BJP victory, enough to keep a few % BJP voters away from the polling booth.

This factor affected Karnataka, Rayalseema, Vidarbha, Telangana
BJP-NDA got some gains due to this in 3 states and lost out in 1 State.

[Deans]

In Varanasi seat Modi didn't really lose lot of votes...
What he lost is victory margin due to INC and SP alliance...
----
2019 Elections (Total approx. 10 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 6.75 Lakhs
SP:- 2 Lakhs
INC:- 1.5 Lakhs
----
2024 Elections (Total approx. 11 Lakh votes)--->
BJP:- 6.12 Lakhs
INC+SP:- 4.6 Lakhs
----
So, around 1 Lakh votes shifted from BJP to INC-SP alliance...
The victory margin decreased due to allaince...
I guess it was the ppl who bought the propaganda of reservation removal, 1 lakh free money etc. that shifted their alliance...

It misses an important point. The electorate in UP increased by about 9% in 2024, compared to 2019.
The turnout was about 1% lower.
To retain the same vote share, Modiji should have got: 7.28 lac votes. He dropped by 1.16 lac
SP+Cong should have got 3.78 lac with the same vote share. They gained 82,000 votes from BJP votes switching.
Another 33k BJP votes went to the BSP candidate.

Clearly there was no problem with the quality of the candidate, or development work in Varanasi.
There was still a 10% drop in BJP vote share in Varanasi.
A small part of the reason was the BSP candidate (though in theory he should have got some votes from INDIA too)
There is a largely unexplained 10% drop across several states (UP, HP, Har, Raj, Mah) after adjusting for no of seats.

An earlier post was correct in saying that the indicators were there in the 2022 UP Assembly polls. Apart from the loss of seats,
many were won by small margins. A further 1% vote share loss would have meant BJP getting 200 seats instead of 255 (out of 403).

I have been talking about rural distress in my earlier posts. Our GDP grew by 7.6% for 2023-24 beating estimates.
This was a source of great pride for govt in industry forums etc.

However, Agriculture grew by only 0.7% (lower than estimates). The North did worse than the South.
Real incomes for people involved in agriculture in 2023-24, was no different from 2019-20.
No one has won an election when most of the population have 0 income growth in 4 years. What mitigated the impact was the free
foodgrain scheme (the much derided freebies).

Manufacturing grew, but added no jobs, though govt deluded itself that it did, because the number of people enrolled in EPF grew.
It was merely labor in unorganized sector manufacturing moving to organized.

The stock market grew 29% in 2023-4 The big gainers were Ambani & Adani. They did nothing wrong, but became a proxy for inequality
of income.

[vijayk]

^^ COVID also affected many rural jobs which have to fully recover.

[vijayk]

Marathwada Analysis

NDA had 7 (BJP - 3, SS - 4) and AIMIM had 1 in 2019
NDA now reduced to 1 (SHS) and INDI has 7 in 2024

This is the map of 2024



Constituency-wise analysis



2019 Votes
BJP 37,37,080
SS 36,15,028
2024
BJP 21,90,000
Allies 17,03,000

BJP has been decimated here. Huge sympathy wave for UBT and SP. Big mistake to split NCP

Jalna and Latur which BJP won in 2019 with 3 Lakh majority (close to 50% margin) have been lost to INC

[Vayutuvan]

@vijayk, it is neighboring northern TS. While Adilabad and Karimnagar went to BJP, Peddapalli went to INC. It extends from Godavarikhani to Venkatapur assembly constituencies. It is a reserved MP seat - reserved for ST/SC.

[LakshmanPST]

It misses an important point. The electorate in UP increased by about 9% in 2024, compared to 2019.
The turnout was about 1% lower.
To retain the same vote share, Modiji should have got: 7.28 lac votes. He dropped by 1.16 lac
SP+Cong should have got 3.78 lac with the same vote share. They gained 82,000 votes from BJP votes switching.
Another 33k BJP votes went to the BSP candidate.

Clearly there was no problem with the quality of the candidate, or development work in Varanasi.
There was still a 10% drop in BJP vote share in Varanasi.
A small part of the reason was the BSP candidate (though in theory he should have got some votes from INDIA too)
There is a largely unexplained 10% drop across several states (UP, HP, Har, Raj, Mah) after adjusting for no of seats.

An earlier post was correct in saying that the indicators were there in the 2022 UP Assembly polls. Apart from the loss of seats,
many were won by small margins. A further 1% vote share loss would have meant BJP getting 200 seats instead of 255 (out of 403).

I have been talking about rural distress in my earlier posts. Our GDP grew by 7.6% for 2023-24 beating estimates.
This was a source of great pride for govt in industry forums etc.

However, Agriculture grew by only 0.7% (lower than estimates). The North did worse than the South.
Real incomes for people involved in agriculture in 2023-24, was no different from 2019-20.
No one has won an election when most of the population have 0 income growth in 4 years. What mitigated the impact was the free
foodgrain scheme (the much derided freebies).

Manufacturing grew, but added no jobs, though govt deluded itself that it did, because the number of people enrolled in EPF grew.
It was merely labor in unorganized sector manufacturing moving to organized.

The stock market grew 29% in 2023-4 The big gainers were Ambani & Adani. They did nothing wrong, but became a proxy for inequality
of income.

The main point that I wanted to share in the post you quoted was that Modi's Vote share didn't fall alarmingly low...
Everywhere I see, people were highlighting the drastic fall in Victory margin and projecting doomsday scenario for Modi...
I only highlighted the reason for that fall of Victory margin---> SP and INC were not in alliance in 2019 due to which opposition vote was split... They're in alliance now, hence the voting combined... So, margin is drastically fell...
----
Subsequent to that post which you quoted, I have written this post--->
viewtopic.php?p=2623042#p2623042

Unlike my first post, I have done seat wise study before writing the above post... However, I only shared the general trends of UP...

When it comes to Varanasi seat, it was a bit difficult to understand the trends compared to other seats... Historically, it was never a strong seat for BJP... Post 1999, whever BJP won, it was only due to split opposition...
It was only Modi factor that made it a strong BJP seat...

Anyways, my findings for Varanasi seat are as follows:-
1) BJP vote share in Varanasi in lasg 3 elections:-
2014:- 56.37%
2019:- 63.60%
2024:- 54.24%

2) INC + SP + BSP vote share in last 3 elections:-
2014:- 17.60%
2019:- 32.78%
2024:- 43.73%

3) Varanasi is different from other seats of UP becoz. back in 2014, the 2nd largest party in this seat was AAP... Kejriwal got around 2 Lakh votes with 20.3% Vote share...
Apart from Kejriwal, there were as many as 37 other candidates, with total Voteshare of 5% back in 2014... This is a significant Voteshare unlike in other seats...
In my analysis, I assumed that vote share received by various parties in 2014 is the base vote share... Due to AAP and other small parties taking up 25% vote share, it was difficult to understand the seat...

5) AAP's vote share got distributed to SP, BSP, Congress and BJP in 2019... The small candidates reduced from 42 Nos. to 26 Nos. and their vote share reduced to 3.5%...

4) Anyways, overall, 2024 result is more or less consistent with general trend of UP...
a) BJP got similar vote share in 2014 and 2024... Though it got reduced by 2% owing to lower turnout...
b) BJP gained from transfer of some opposition votes in 2019... All that vote gain went to INC+SP combo in 2024...

5) In 2024, there are only 6 candidates... Apart from Modi and Ajay Rai, other 4 candidates got barely 2% of Vote share... This was 5% in 2014... The reduced 3% also went to SP+INC combo...
----
To conclude about Varanasi, I consider it only as a minor set back for Modi...
Winning the seat with 54% Vote share continuously 3 times is a remarkable achievement...

[vijayk]

https://x.com/priyankadeo/status/1803208998436647265

Priyanka Deo @priyankadeo
Following BJP's defeat in Faizabad, Uttar Pradesh Housing Development Council canceled a Rs 264 crore flyover, opting for 3 underpasses to improve traffic.

The changes aim to preserve religious structures, engage with the community & enhance #Ayodhya development sustainably.
@SreeIyer1

[vijayk]

I hope BJP comes up with a 100 day plan discussing with all the allies

https://x.com/vijaygajera/status/1803091299668816172
Ravish Pandey now big on LGBTQIA+ and bashing of Indian family

[a_bharat]

I submit Modi factor in AP 2024 is 55.24- 45.54 = ~10%
Analysts might say its only 2% the delta between 2.83 and 0.84.

Ramana garu, with all due respect, I say that BJP/Modi didn't have positive contribution in AP, in terms of votes; the alliance with BJP may have helped in terms of setting up a fair election. If both state and central authorities were with YCP, it would have been a big advantage for YCP. To that extent, the alliance with BJP helped TDP+JSP.

If there was no alliance with BJP, TDP+JSP could have secured 24 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats. You can see massive cross-voting in the 3 MP seats BJP lost in Andhra, where TDP+JSP swept in assembly constituencies of these MP seats, but the BJP lost the MP seats.

In this election, Jagan retained his core vote, but lost the swing vote that was split between YCP and TDP in 2014, went in favour of YCP in 2019 and totally deserted YCP in 2024.