Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[hgupta]

Which means that NATO has provided the targeting info. Russia has to do something about NATO targeting infrastructure.

[Yogi_G]

There is nothing Russia can do about the American eyes in the sky, heck they couldnt even jam the starlink. Taking out the sats is open declaration of war. The other way around also works, there is nothing the Americans can do about the Ruskie assets in space.

[S_Madhukar]

Unkil and their satellites with massive data analytics is constantly creating a target list like a Uber. Whenever there is a battery or ucav available they can target and thus optimise the inventory (or at least that must be the strategy) . Which means that the defendant can’t protect all assets at all times succumbing to attrition at some point

[hgupta]

Unkil and their satellites with massive data analytics is constantly creating a target list like a Uber. Whenever there is a battery or ucav available they can target and thus optimise the inventory (or at least that must be the strategy) . Which means that the defendant can’t protect all assets at all times succumbing to attrition at some point

Which means that Unkik and its allies have become enemy combatants.

[Jay]

Which means that Unkik and its allies have become enemy combatants.

And there's nothing Russia can do much about it or there are no good options available for russia to directly attack unkils capabilities without inviting a reciprocal direct attack on its own assets. The day Russia attacks US forces directly is the day even republicans will ditch them so fast that their head will spin.

It has been the case since Day 1. I still think Russia missed it's chance of bombing western ukr choke points from where war goods were flowing into UKR from Poland.

[YashG]

US always led russia in remote sensing; Even till atleast 5 years ago India was ahead of china in remote sensing resolution achieved.

If US is providing target information, Russia can only try to get its own info.

[YashG]

A very god source on Bakhmut casaulties: https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-w ... in-bakhmut

It is interesting to know that number tallies with bigserge's analysis here: https://bigserge.substack.com/

The same article also talks abt ukn casaulties and perhaps how the initial 1m strng Ukn army dissolved

[srai]

Ukraine Says Hit Su-57 Fighter Jet Inside Russia

…
"On 8 June 2024, a Su-57 multi-purpose fighter jet of the aggressor state was struck at the Akhtubinsk airfield in Russia's Astrakhan region, 589 kilometers from the line of contact," Ukraine's GUR military intelligence said.
…

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/ ... sia-a85355

Lucky more Su-57 were not damaged. There were two more next to the one attacked.


https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... f_damaged/

[Aditya_V]

That has to be best of what US NATO could through, those 3 planes would have been out of the hanger only for a limited amount of time, no slow moving Drone could do that without being detected, the whole kill chain acted really fast, must have been a ground hugging steatly unknown to the public Cruise missile with came in fast with a very light payload.

I think some of the stuff the Houthis are using are Russian stuff, a real US Russia Shadow war is going on.

[srai]

^^^
Air defenses designed for fast flying aircraft.

Lots of Slow moving drones have gotten through. Just look at how many oil refineries and storage facilities have been attacked up to 1000km inside Russia.

[srai]

Looks like Russian money will be paying for Ukrainian war effort and rebuilding.

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine $50 billion using frozen Russian assets

The money would come from interest accrued on some $300 billion.

G7 leaders on Thursday agreed to lend Ukraine $50 billion this year -- backed by profits from frozen Russian assets -- to help the country's war effort and rebuilding.
…

"Ukraine is still going to have a large financial need next year and beyond and this summit is our best chance to act collectively to close the gap… This agreement is a signal from the leading democracies of the world, that we're not going to fatigue and defending Ukraine's freedom and that Putin is not going to outlast us."

…

Funds will be used for military, budget, humanitarian, and reconstruction support.

…
"How are we going to get repaid? Russia pays…the income comes from the interest stream on the immobilized asset," the official said. "The principal is untouched for now, but we have full optionality to seize the principal later if the political will is there."

The official added that "if there is a peace settlement, either the assets stay immobilized. And keep generating interest to repay the loans or Russia pays for the damage it's caused. Either way, there's a source of repayment."
…

The West counting on the Russian $300 billion to collect on their “aid” loans to Ukraine

[Pratyush]

^^^

If that's the case, then the source of western power is over.

India should now strive to replace the safety of the western world for such assets.

[srai]

US and EU countries signing long-term (10-year) security agreements/pacts with Ukraine.


US

EU

UK
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
Belgium
Norway
Denmark
Poland

…

Ukraine will end up with NATO and then EU over the next 10-years for sure. Their military transformation into a NATO one (training, tactics, equipment and MIC) progresses rapidly each year. Institution reforms to align with EU standards taking place every time EU funds lent. War has accelerated these activities which otherwise would have taken many decades.

[hgupta]

Srai,

This will push Russia into where they have no choice but to take over Kiev and all the way to Dnieper River and fortify the natural defenses there and they would have to raze Lyiv and Kryiv Rig to the ground and basically kill off the young population and make the Ukrainians a dying race.

[Deans]

US and EU countries signing long-term (10-year) security agreements/pacts with Ukraine.


Ukraine will end up with NATO and then EU over the next 10-years for sure. Their military transformation into a NATO one (training, tactics, equipment and MIC) progresses rapidly each year. Institution reforms to align with EU standards taking place every time EU funds lent. War has accelerated these activities which otherwise would have taken many decades.

None of these pacts are worth the paper they are written on. Why not a pact with NATO instead of individual countries ?
Its designed for voters in the West to feel good about helping Ukraine, when in the short term there is nothing more to give.

[Deans]

A counter-intuitive view of attacks on aircraft like the SU-57

The aircraft was a prototype under initial flight testing. The airstrip was a test facility. It wasn't part of an operational Russian squadron.

A lot of armchair analysts, like me, have bemoaned the lack of hardened shelters for Russian aircraft.
Ukraine has these for all aircraft, because their airfields are in the West, close to the border with NATO, which the USSR regarded as their forward
airbases. Similarly their field HQ's are typically in hardened underground shelters, inherited from Soviet times.
That has not stopped the Russians routinely destroying Ukrainian aircraft inside their shelters, with missile strikes, to a point where Ukraine has almost no aircraft left (despite every Soviet era fighter in NATO having being supplied to Ukraine) and has to wait for F-16s.

The Russian strategy is to scramble their fighter aircraft to a dispersal strip, once an incoming missile or drone is detected, (with decoy aircraft remaining on the ground) rather than presenting it with a fixed target inside a shelter. The more important assets are increasing in `drone proof' concrete shelters.

[drnayar]

US and EU countries signing long-term (10-year) security agreements/pacts with Ukraine.


Ukraine will end up with NATO and then EU over the next 10-years for sure. Their military transformation into a NATO one (training, tactics, equipment and MIC) progresses rapidly each year. Institution reforms to align with EU standards taking place every time EU funds lent. War has accelerated these activities which otherwise would have taken many decades.

None of these pacts are worth the paper they are written on. Why not a pact with NATO instead of individual countries ?
Its designed for voters in the West to feel good about helping Ukraine, when in the short term there is nothing more to give.

It will also tie in the various countries in EU into various commitments making it difficult to get out of and explaining to the public that is not in their interests given uncles all pervasive propaganda machine!!.. also if Trump comes to power..the money spinner should keep running

[Sharads]

^^^

If that's the case, then the source of western power is over.

India should now strive to replace the safety of the western world for such assets.

Dollar, as a reserve currency, is a tool of the American Empire— not a source of its power. Martial spirit, scientific innovation and high-iq–martial–aesthetic populace are the sources of its power.

We should be careful about de-dollarisation, it should be done smartly without being seen as a challenge to the American Empire. The history of 19th &20th century is about an emerging empire(Germany) trying to challenge the incumbent (Anglo-American) Empire and getting crushed in the process, whereas in 21st century the Germans were able to establish German Reich(European Union) without much hassle by making it a subset of the American Empire.

Modi administration couldn't even establish Digital Sovereignty–like the Chinese– in the past 10 years, to expect it to establish Financial Sovereignty is far-fetched. Sloganeering and chest-thumping, the usual peasant-politics, would not just be counter-productive but disastrous; it would require strategic discipline and foresight that Modi&co have shown themselves to be incapable of mustering.

[Suresh S]

I do not know who u are but if you are an indian that is exactly what is wrong with this thought process lashed with inferioirty complex and totally wrong reading of a situation borne out of centuries of foreign domination and attacks.

America,s short lived domination since the end of second world war has come to an end. nothing can reverse it at this point.

The US dollar is the main reason behind american domination of this world and unfortunately for them a brilliant Russian leader understood it right from the beginning. This mafia tactics of shoving the dollar down your mouth is not going to work anymore. In the past if a country refused to use the dollar they would be sanctioned or there would be regime change or simply the leader would be murdered. Well the world understands this tactic pretty well now.

Right from it,s formation in 1776 it grew by slaughtering mercilessly the native american population and stealing their land and gobbling territories under spain, france and specially Mexico. everything they have is stolen property and talent they have is borrowed meaning immigrants from every corner of the world. Everyone here is living like in a motel who are there to earn dollars with little attachement to this land called america.

As for martial spirit can u tell me the last war they fought and won against a peer power because I can not, the only example is japan in last hundred yrs. This monster country has been in continuous war with someone or other right from it,s beginning in 1776.

High IQ I do not know where u got them from. Guys on this board from IIT,s and any decent indian medical school will defeat an american from so called ivy league school,s handsdown . I speak from 35 plus yrs of personal experience.

As for arts and great taste in food and clothes and furniture and other fine things in life less said the better sir.

India already is the most important country in the world under prime minister Modi and in less than 25 yrs it shall become the largest economy in the world. United states will be the third largest by that time and it is my reading that in the second half of this century it may be demoted to even 4th place behind indonesia.

You do not need 800 military bases around the globe if u have great IQ as u suggest and martial spirit and great innovation. These are weapons of a mafia state.

Now go and hide under that rock my friend. Have a nice day.

[Pratyush]

Oh wow, I have struck the jackpot. MUTUs have turned up.

You are telling me that USSR was not able to achieve scientific and military breakthroughs?

The source of true power is not military nor scientific capacity.

[srai]

Let’s move the geopolitical stuff to the other thread.

[mody]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz994d6vqe5o

Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding.
A report to this effect on BBC, just shows how bad the situation really is. Wonder how Ukraine will keep finding men to send to the frontlines.

[srai]

Looks like Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv has encircled over 400 Russian soldiers at Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. That’s like a whole battalion trapped.

[Lisa]

Do you have a link, please

[srin]

Not clear who is encircling who ...

This is the channel (with pro-russian bias) I use to get daily conflict updates

[Garooda]

^^^
Air defenses designed for fast flying aircraft.

Lots of Slow moving drones have gotten through. Just look at how many oil refineries and storage facilities have been attacked up to 1000km inside Russia.

Agreed. First 23 seconds has the clip of the drone that struck the airbase close to the su57. There was a raw footage of this particular phone based clip that was shot by someone which I am unable to find now.
There are many channels (pro and anti ukraine/russia) with the same clip of the drone.

[YashG]

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months.

This has happened. Russia possibly now have 700K soldiers in the theatre.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-n ... 47175.html

But also possibly Ukraine does not have less than 400K. Somehow the cracks available due to lower manpower are just not there yet visible. All fights are grinding suggesting that Ukraine has been able to deploy more troops on the frontline somehow.

or alternatively russia has not pressed into action atleast 100-150K or so soldiers in Ukraine yet. Eitherways, Ukn is holding for now.

[hgupta]

With now possibly 45K losses per month and maybe being able to recruit not more than 10K/Month, Ukn is likely is losing 8-9% of total combat strength / month. So we would see russia notching upto 700K soldier in the theatre soon while ukn might decline to 300K in maybe 3 months.

This has happened. Russia possibly now have 700K soldiers in the theatre.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-n ... 47175.html

But also possibly Ukraine does not have less than 400K. Somehow the cracks available due to lower manpower are just not there yet visible. All fights are grinding suggesting that Ukraine has been able to deploy more troops on the frontline somehow.

or alternatively russia has not pressed into action atleast 100-150K or so soldiers in Ukraine yet. Eitherways, Ukn is holding for now.

I keep saying and will continue to say this: Russian strategy is not to take land but to kill off Ukrainian reserves and people capable of fighting. Russia has a long term strategy in place and that is to kill the Ukrainian population of any fighting men or productive people so Ukraine as a whole is on the path to destruction. Once Russia has killed Ukrainian soldiers and reserves only will they start to take significant amount of land and that land will be pacified already because the population would be too worn out to resist and keep fighting.

[Garooda]

I wonder how this would have been looked upon before 1991

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/ ... -un-a85466

[srai]

Interesting fundraising activity by Ukraine … keychains made out of destroyed Russian equipment (T-72, T80U, T-90M, Ka-52, Su-34, Su-25, TOS-1A, MSTA-S, BM-27, BMD-3, TOR-M2DT, TIGR-M, etc)


https://www.createdinukraine.com/en-au/ ... in-urkaine

Some image samples

[srai]

Drone on drone will be common soon enough…

[srai]

Cheap strap on glide kits for dumb bombs is the way to go



Very effective. Larger the mass the better to break through defenses.

[srai]

Very versatile Ukrainian UGV D-21-11.



Different weapons mount for assault
Logistics
Troop rotation
Casualty evacuation

15-20km battery range

[YashG]

Interesting fundraising activity by Ukraine … keychains made out of destroyed Russian equipment (T-72, T80U, T-90M, Ka-52, Su-34, Su-25, TOS-1A, MSTA-S, BM-27, BMD-3, TOR-M2DT, TIGR-M, etc)


https://www.createdinukraine.com/en-au/ ... in-urkaine

Some image samples

Ukn war is a once in a lifetime opp for many people to make money on the name of raising money for troops.
Everyone left , right & center is trying to do fundraisers. Neither the amounts quoted in these fundraisers makes sense nor anyone can be sure the money is going in real. A lot of gullible left - liberals are just throwing there money to make Ukns rich.

[YashG]

Drone on drone will be common soon enough…

We will also probably have small range (upto 500m) but very fast interceptor drones with carbon fibre of silk nets to entangle incoming drones.
I would imagine a small drone with capability of flying for just a few minutes but at very high speeds and tiny battery (reduce weight) connected to a guidance module with a cheap transmitter. These will be launched with large expandable wiry nets if enemy drones come in within 200m (visual detection) and simply go and entangle enemy drone.

Due to visual detection - cost of detector will be low (except at night) & simultaneously many targets can be engaged.

A tube with 5-10 of these tiny drones will be installed. (that could be refilled with new drones).

For infantry purpose the tube/s could contain only 2 drones at the back...but more for important defences or artillery.

Interceptor Drones can make attack drones useless since they will be so much cheaper - tiny battery / no long range comm device / no camera/visual nav sensors / no need to carry wt of explosive - since you want to entangle the drone.

[Rakesh]

Humvee-Mounted Low-Recoil 105mm Howitzer To Make Combat Debut In Ukraine
https://www.twz.com/land/humvee-mounted ... in-ukraine
24 June 2024

The Hawkeye howitzer offers Ukraine a new shoot-and-scoot artillery option, but this real-world combat testing could have impacts elsewhere.

[Pratyush]

Kalyani has offered this system to the Indian army. IIRC, it's undergoing testing.

[pravula]

Humvee-Mounted Low-Recoil 105mm Howitzer To Make Combat Debut In Ukraine
https://www.twz.com/land/humvee-mounted ... in-ukraine
24 June 2024

The Hawkeye howitzer offers Ukraine a new shoot-and-scoot artillery option, but this real-world combat testing could have impacts elsewhere.

How is this different from the old RCL options?

[Pratyush]

Longer range and indirect fire capacity. 105 has seen greater development in terms of shells over the last several decades.

Whereas, only the 84 mm rcl has seen an equal level of development. But for a much shorter range.

[srai]

^^^
In that article, it mentions 20km range.