Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[srai]

^^^
hgupta,
What you are proposing is genocide!

[hgupta]

^^^
hgupta,
What you are proposing is genocide!

No it is not because Russia is forcing Ukraine to throw all of its men into the meatgrinder and Russia will simply kill them. That is what Russia is doing now. Russia right now is not focusing on capturing land but killing Ukrainian men and soldiers. It is a war of attrition right now.

[m_saini]

That is what Russia is doing now. Russia right now is not focusing on capturing land but killing Ukrainian men and soldiers. It is a war of attrition right now.

This is just cope, sorry to say. Russian goal of "denazification" or "kill males between 13 & 65" as you put it is much easier accomplished by just capturing all of the land.
It's not that Russia is not focusing on capturing land, it's that they can't (capture land, for whatever reason). So a war of attrition it is.

[chetak]

Houthis To Get Russian Cruise Missiles?

Putin Mulls Mega Anti-Israel Plan As Biden Watches

Sensational report on Russia's alleged anti-Israel plan has created ripples.

According to a report, Vladimir Putin is mulling arming Houthis with Russian cruise missiles.

There are indications that Putin is considering supplying anti-ship ballistic missiles, said the report.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-houthis- ... en-1919434

Closer cooperation between Russia and the Houthis in Yemen could exacerbate the strategic dilemma facing Western powers as they seek to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea and beyond.

There are indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering supplying the Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi movement with anti-ship ballistic cruise missiles, Middle East Eye (MEE)—citing an unnamed senior U.S. official—reported on Saturday

[Pratyush]

Wow, Anti ship ballistic cruise missiles.

Are bhai what is this beast?

[srin]

This is going to hurt us. It will bring sea trade with Europe via Suez Canal to a halt. That means the trade will need to use longer sea routes ( around Cape of Good hope) or multi modal over land (like IMEC or INSTC) which gives intermediate nations control over our trade.

[Aditya_V]

I think the Houthis have been using Russian missiles for some time as revenge for the Black sea attacks, we don't where this madness will end.

[sanman]

US sending F-16s to Ukraine

(let's remember that the F-16 is also a nuclear delivery system)

Clearly Biden (or his coterie) want WW3 to pre-empt his imminent election loss

[sanman]

NATO & Global South

[sanman]

NATO Includes Indo-Pacific?




NATO = Need Another Treaty Organization

[Aditya_V]

Only 2 Majority White Countries out of NATO are Australia and New Zealand- a ton of resources within China's easy reach, perhaps SOKO, Japan and Taiwan are also critical

[sanman]

Only 2 Majority White Countries out of NATO are Australia and New Zealand- a ton of resources within China's easy reach, perhaps SOKO, Japan and Taiwan are also critical

NATO couldn't even defeat the sandal-wearing Taliban. All the smaller NATO countries had to rely on US to even fly them over there.
How the hell are the rest of these NATO countries going to fight in the South China Sea?
Is the US going to buy them all ships & subs, like Zelensky also wants Washington to do?

[sanman]

Pacific Ocean Trans-Atlantic Treaty Organization

[Pratyush]

[prahaar]

Zelensky must be thinking, meri vaat laga ke ab kisko chuna lagane wale hain. Security umbrella concept is such a seductive term, Indian kings not too long ago were similarly seduced by the subsidiary alliance system.

[Haresh]

The comments are interesting, why do they think other countries have to get involved in their madness ?

Why is Modi sucking up to Putin? It’s simple and cynical: China and oil

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... a#comments

[sanman]

Prof John Mearsheimer says that Trump will not change Ukraine war policy, and that this spells trouble for the future:

[Haresh]

A Trump presidency would leave Ukraine to its fate – because he has China in his sights

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... p-election

The al-guardian has an entire section devoted to Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine

[sanman]

US+Canada Jets intercept Russia+China Bombers

[sanman]

Avakov Considered by US as Suitable Candidate to Replace Zelensky: Russia's SVR

https://www.uniindia.com/avakov-conside ... 61243.html


This Avakov guy is a hardliner who's been associated with Svoboda and Azov radicals

[sanman]

[Neshant]

paints a bleak picture of Russia's dwindling prospects in the war.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Live Mint: PM Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on August 23, says MEA

Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Ukraine: The Ministry of External Affairs said this is a “landmark and historic visit since this will be the first time an Indian prime minister will be visiting Ukraine in more than 30 years…

[sanman]

[sanman]

Ukrainian Foreign Minister has angered Poland by repeating on Polish TV the Banderite line about historical injustices from Poland

This has then prompted a sharp reply from the Polish leadership:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-ca ... 47214.html

Ukraine Cannot Join EU Before Resolving Historical Issues with Poland — Tusk

[sanman]

I don't believe Modi's visit to Ukraine has gotten the West off our backs

[Hriday]

https://x.com/ThePollLady/status/183049 ... mF3kw&s=19

Ukraine is ‘gold mine’ with $12 trillion of minerals ‘we can’t afford to lose’.

~ US Senator Lindsey Graham.

When Donald Trump was president, he sent Ukraine military aid in the FORM OF LOANS.

“What did Trump do to get the weapons flowing? He created a loan system”.

“If we help Ukraine now, they can become the best business partner we ever dreamed of”, Graham continued. “That $10 to $12 trillion of critical mineral assets could be used by Ukraine and the West, not given to Putin and China”.

The West “can’t afford to lose” the war in Ukraine.

“This is a very big deal, how Ukraine ends. Let’s help them win a war we can’t afford to lose. Let’s find a solution to this war. But they’re sitting on a gold mine. To give Putin $10 or $12 trillion of critical minerals that he will share with China is ridiculous”.

47 seconds video of Lindsey Graham is in the Twitter link.

[sanman]

Listen to the latest NeoCon crap -- they want to get Japan to press its own territorial demands against Russia for Sakhalin, Kurils, etc.


https://www.aei.org/op-eds/russian-terr ... ude-japan/

Russian Territorial Concessions to End the Ukraine War Should Include Japan

By Michael Rubin

National Security Journal

August 29, 2024

Ukraine has now opened a second front inside Russia as its forces, already consolidating control over Kursk, have moved into Belgorad. Ukrainian troops have shredded the mirage of strength first Soviet leaders and then their Russian successors constructed. Russian forces may have blunted Ukraine’s counter-offensive along the trenches of the Donbas, but Ukraine has demonstrated flexibility and mobility, while Russian commanders remain ossified. Perhaps the best parallel is to the early Arab-Israel wars in which Israel was an underdog. Still, their motivation, creativity, and respect for commanders created a more effective military than the ossified, demoralized, and staid Arab armies.

Washington has sought to restrain Ukraine and force Kyiv to limit fighting to Ukrainian territory, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has wisely defied U.S. advice. Whereas before, repeated diplomatic proposals to trade territory for peace would have forced Ukraine to cede Russian occupied territory like Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk, today a more even trade could occur. The more Ukraine seizes Russian territory, the easier such a formula might become. Nor should Russian President Vladimir Putin complain. After all, he was the one who argued immediately prior to the invasion that there was no real difference between Russian and Ukrainian territory. By that logic, Ukraine has as much right to Moscow as Russia does.

Whether before or after Putin and when the guns fall silent and territorial trade can begin, it is essential not to limit the swaps to Russia and Ukraine. From a broader historical perspective, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was the rule rather than the exception. Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and seized a chunk of Georgia in 2008. The Russian military has illicitly occupied Transnistria since 1992. Russia also inherited the Soviet occupation of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. Russian justification of its claims based on the Yalta Conference fell short as Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin delayed his invasion of the territory until it was too late.

Don’t Forget About Japan

Japan should not only voice its claim but also work to bring it to fruition. Tokyo has already given billions of dollars in aid to Kyiv, but it should go farther, offering Ukraine its most advanced weaponry to reach Moscow and defense installations across the country.

Time should not launder such injustice. Perhaps had the world not acquiesced to Moscow’s land grab against Japan, Putin might have recognized he could not win the long game in Crimea. The Ukraine War will end when Putin dies. A new Russian leader can bury Putin’s folly with the dictator and seek a fresh start. Russia can return to its borders as defined by the 1991 Almaty Agreement that the Kremlin accepted. It can evacuate every inch of Ukrainian but also Georgian and Moldovan territory. After such repeated aggression and needless deaths, however, the West should not settle there.

History Lessons

Russians must learn they will never benefit from conquest. President Joe Biden’s team whispers about yet another re-set. Still, there should be no normalization so long as Russia occupies any neighbor’s territory, from the Kurils to Crimea and from Tuva to Transnistria.

[Deans]

My latest blogpost on the Ukraine war.
Probably the more comprehensive look at casualties and formations, in open source - even if I say so myself.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/09/uk ... force.html

[Manish_P]

^ Link broken sir.

I know your blog. So can read the article there

[Tanaji]

Amazing article Deans ji, very well researched. Separately, can you please comment more about the Kursk incursion - you have touched on it briefly in the latest blog. I still dont get what Ukraine gains from it - do they expect a ceasefire that allows them a better bargaining position?

[sanman]

[sanman]

Why Does Modi Keep Whining to Putin About Peace? Are We Just Succumbing to Western Pressure?

Worth a listen:

[S_Madhukar]

I hope we go through the motions and be done with it, you never know US will make us mediate even get some agreement and then next year once Dumbos are back in power go full kaboom on Russia. We should sometimes put our heads in the sand and not expend too much political capital

[sanman]

Lavrov speaks on BRICS and international affairs

[Cyrano]

What is this crap the Duran is peddling about 'modi's atlantist backers in Mumbai financial circles' ? Seems like heresay to me

If anything Indian petrochem companies have been laughing away to the bank ever since this Ukraine war started selling refined products to woke EU countries. When energy sector does well, everyone does well, the financiers included.

If anything the status quo suits Bharat, it has spurred us to diversify energy suppliers, invest in processing various types of crude, and made it legit to buy from whomever we want in the interest of 1.4B Indians.

Peace in Ukraine will perhaps reopen European markets to Russian oil and gas, and change the equations once again.

If Modi is going to Russia, Ukraine, then to US and now our NSA Doval Ji is once again in Russia, there is a lot more at play.

It's a tit for tat move for the ruckus the US has made in our neighbourhood starting with BD, Nepal is also being visited by SD crooks.

Duran guys have to get a serious education on India and the current Govt's strategic thinking and balls to take on whoever using chanakya neeti.

[sanman]

What is this crap the Duran is peddling about 'modi's atlantist backers in Mumbai financial circles' ? Seems like heresay to me

If anything Indian petrochem companies have been laughing away to the bank ever since this Ukraine war started selling refined products to woke EU countries. When energy sector does well, everyone does well, the financiers included.

If anything the status quo suits Bharat, it has spurred us to diversify energy suppliers, invest in processing various types of crude, and made it legit to buy from whomever we want in the interest of 1.4B Indians.

Peace in Ukraine will perhaps reopen European markets to Russian oil and gas, and change the equations once again.

If Modi is going to Russia, Ukraine, then to US and now our NSA Doval Ji is once again in Russia, there is a lot more at play.

It's a tit for tat move for the ruckus the US has made in our neighbourhood starting with BD, Nepal is also being visited by SD crooks.

Duran guys have to get a serious education on India and the current Govt's strategic thinking and balls to take on whoever using chanakya neeti.

I agree that their understanding of India is not always perfect. However, this war certainly does not suit India, because it brings us under intense pressure from West, and brings back Cold War dynamics where they want to screw us.

Here's a good reading that's worth a listen:

[Cyrano]

Without this Ukraine proxy war, where do you think the west will put it's focus on?

BD is being used as a proxy to needle Bharat bcoz we refuse to become the proxy to needle cheen.

[mody]

https://youtu.be/J3p-MmqFUeU?si=Rp5NkcZHCRMmzXPm

A good video analyzing a hypothetical NATO intervention in Ukraine.

[sanman]

I hate to bring up the boring topic of WW3 Nuclear Apocalypse - but don't the latest developments look like a big step in that direction?


https://www.newsweek.com/us-ukraine-rus ... en-1951517

US to Discuss Permitting Ukraine ATACMS Strikes on Russia​


https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-s ... 024-09-11/

Kremlin Warns of Escalation if US Allows Kyiv to Hit Russia with Long-Range Missiles​


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... sks-russia

West’s Missile Go-Ahead to Ukraine Would Hold No Shortage of Risks


Does anybody remember that Federation of Atomic Scientists? They used to have some Doomsday Clock, and during times of nuclear peril they would move the hands on that clock closer to midnight.
What happened to those people? Do they still have their clock and still give warnings? Or have they just packed it in?
Or do the all-powerful western media just not care to talk about them anymore?