Challenge of China_ Political, Economic & Military Responses

[bala]

Xi Jinping गुमशुदा? • Silent, Sick, Dead, Or Purged? • Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan/ Lt Gen Ravi Shankar



Two events Emperor is missing:

Missing at August 1 97th raising day of PLA ; at every raising day he talks about PLA being loyal to CCP; for first he is missing. Many PLA leaders have been sacked.

Before October meeting where major party decisions are taken, there is another prior meeting at Port of Beidaihe, Bohai sea. Party elders are called and Emperor chairs the meeting. His PA is more prominent.

At 3rd Plenum Emperor was missing. His PA was there.

[SSridhar]

Though illness can be unpredictable in spite of best Chinese doctors monitoring XJP's health daily, I believe that his absence or perceived absence should not be misconstrued.

He has behaved like that many times before including in 2012 just after he was appointed General Secretary. For two weeks, nobody knew where he was. The speculation then was that he was petulant and wanted that he be made Party Secretary, President as well as Chairman, CMC all in one go.

There have been several other occasions afterwards too.

The fact that the 3rd Plenum concluded smoothly with a thumping support for XJP along with a clue that he would lead a fourth term also shows that all is well.

[ramana]

Emperor Eleven's condition is under speculation. He is not being mentioned in Any China CCP news. Here is PGurus with Jennifer Zeng who is claiming a stroke for Emperor. He attended 1 day of 3rd Plenum of CCP meeting after that he is missing.

Dissident Chinese keep trying to portray chaos in China. It is a psychological thing. Should ignore.
Watch US state dept.

[sanman]

[sanman]

Interesting talk - anybody agree with it?

[tandav]

https://www-eurasiantimes-com.cdn.amppr ... based/amp/

Chinese Military develops AI Elint solution or so they claim

[sanman]

Now here we see an example of US running to kowtow to China:




I think Washington is now running to kowtow to Beijing, because they realize their stunt against us in Bangla has damaged the prospects of Indo-US cooperation in containment of China. So they're now running to talk to China, in order to shore up that front.

I think what we need to do, is to steer China & US into more conflict with each other. Deflect China away from us, and towards conflict with US.

In our own yard, we should treat China as the enemy it is. But in America's yard, we should treat China as an ally, or at least someone to be helped, in order to maximize conflict between China & USA. This will give us more leverage with both sides, and also distract both of them away from hitting us.

And another thing -- the reigning NeoCon faction in Washington don't really care about the USA or US national interests. The NeoCons are primarily an ethnic special interest group centred around the Israel lobby. Therefore under this dispensation, the best way to steer China & US into conflict with each other, is to steer China into conflict with Israel. For instance, I've noticed that as China has worked to broker unity among the different Palestinian factions, this has produced a particularly sharp reaction from US State Dept and US Congress. Again, this is because the ruling faction in Washington is very tightly wedded to Israel and its interests. So if you want to steer US in a particular direction, just do something to Israel and its interests, and watch the sparks fly in Washington DC.

[bala]

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan I How Should India Look at a Weakened China I Xi Jinping's Time Over I Aadi



// Very interesting observations by Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan, providing historical precedents and some tell-tale signs of what can be happening behind the scenes in China and the emperor eleven. Worth a look over.

[sanman]

Has China's "Lost Decade" (a la Japan) Arrived?

[sanjaykumar]

For Japan , it is more like three decades or more.

[sanman]

Has China succeeded in building its own network of trading ports for BRI?

[sanman]

[Neshant]

War with China likelyhood.

[sanman]

Sepoy Dalip Singh gives talk on challenge posted by China's overcapacity problem:

[sanman]

[Hriday]

@LevinaNeythiri from Resonant News writes in X,

https://x.com/LevinaNeythiri/status/183 ... zxZSQ&s=19

1/2

WRITE IT DOWN on stone—

CHEEN is going down.

It has an year from now. Things will become more evident then.

PAPER DRAGONS will now fund their pet-dog on India’s west to keep India engaged as WEST takes them on.

Disengagement is a SIGN of weakness.

Bend on ur Knees!

2/2

I do not take any responsibility for what others are claiming.

I hv posted proof and my predictions.

https://x.com/LevinaNeythiri/status/183 ... rxUFg&s=19

1/2
Watch:
China - 2027

Chinese Communist party's imminent fall,

this explains why India's silent,

what's America's Plan

Complete video on Youtube : youtu.be/-_cwajO4WV8

[Hriday]

The above video by @LevinaNeythiri mentioned talks in Russia and China about the year 2027 as crucial and chaos going to happen in China or CCP.
I watched sections in the video discussing panic in CCP and China in 2027. Didn't see anything related to the imminent fall of CCP.

But surprised by the disengagement of troops. Possibly a trap for a surprise attack later.

[KL Dubey]

Realistic article from ORF on the India-China military disengagement process:

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... with-china

India needs to ensure that it does not concede anything, even notionally, on the eastern Ladakh border to reset its ties with China. Such a move would only encourage Beijing to continue its strategy of military dominance along the LAC.

In summary, nothing to get overly excited about. Some progress made.

[bala]

China Really Backed out on LAC? | Indian Narrative of Modi, Jaishankar, Doval | MajGen Rajiv Narayanan

In Jaipur Dialogues



The actual fight is the US, which wanted a fisticuff fight between Cheen and Bharat, is completely disappointed. G2 is not happening. The BRICS has put a monkey wrench into such plans. Russia and India in BRICS arm twisted the Cheen to back off. Russia has managed to kick out France from Africa and the global north, without Russia, is staring at isolation world wide. The Global south is warm towards Russia and India. Cheen is licking its wounds from the गहरा राज्य Gehra Rajya taking their marbles elsewhere from China. The Cheenis are pissed beyond measure, everything is falling apart - real estate, PLA, employment numbers, restive crowds with increasing protests, huge factories staring at massive shut down, banking sector in turmoil and restricting withdrawals, their global investments are in jeapardy, massive parking lots filled with unsold cars, etc.

Meanwhile the US is staring at irrelevance of the mighty dollar in trade. Ukraine was a goldmine for resources but Russian invasion has put a stop to the gravy train. Eurotards are facing destruction of tremendous proportions. The US is slowing losing its influence worldwide, africa is slipping away, Asian countries are realizing the futility of US promises. Blinken/Soreass were cornered and hence they took out weakling BD in Indian neighborhood. But this is a double edged sword and in the future will bite their collective butts big time, snakes are snakes and those who dabble with them are also snakes.

[sanman]

[VinodTK]

India to maintain LAC troop deployment as trust deficit with China remains

NEW DELHI: With the huge trust deficit with China continuing along the Line of Actual Control, India is going full steam ahead with preparations to maintain its forward deployment of troops for the fifth successive winter in the forbidding terrain of eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh-Sikkim.

There may be indications of "progress and narrowing of differences" in political-diplomatic talks, but top sources in the defence establishment told TOI that "the trust deficit on the ground with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) remains very high".

The way China continues to strengthen its forward military positions as well as build 'permanent defences' and infrastructure all along the 3,488-km LAC, it is quite clear the PLA will not be returning to its peacetime locations in the near future, the sources added.As the Army transitions from 'the summer to winter posture', with massive 'winter stocking' underway for the additional troops forward deployed along the frontier, General Upendra Dwivedi and the commanders-in-chief of the force's seven commands will also review the operational situation at a meeting to be held in Gangtok (Sikkim) on Oct 9-10.

Talk of a possible breakthrough in the military confrontation in eastern Ladakh has been fuelled by a flurry of bilateral political-diplomatic talks over the last couple of months. These included the 30th and 31st meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) on July 31 and Aug 29, which were followed by a meeting between national security advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on the side-lines of a BRICS meet at St Petersburg on Sept 12.
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[sanman]

[sanman]

[sanman]

[Tanaji]

The Chinese seem to have significantly upgraded their base near Pangong lake:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/satelli ... _topscroll

[drnayar]

Falun Gong, also known as Falun Dafa, is a self-improvement cultivation system that includes gentle meditative exercises and moral teachings based on the three core principles of truth, compassion, and tolerance. Introduced in 1992, Falun Gong became widely popular in China by the late 1990s. By 1999, the then-CCP leader Jiang Zemin perceived Falun Gong’s moral teachings and growing popularity as a threat to the CCP’s culture of struggle, atheism, and materialism, and he launched a nationwide campaign of persecution to eradicate the practice on July 20, 1999. The violent suppression continues to this date.

See how the Falun Gong closely simulates santan dharma.


Also the enmity of the Chinese communist party to bharat is deeply ideological and not just percentile.

Why pappu preaches caste hood and divide Hindus subvert nationalism .. one can just infer what MOU was signed between the CCP and Congress Party.

[SSridhar]

Any organized group, whether religious or otherwise, would be considered by the Communists as a potential threat and they would do everything to eliminate that.

[ricky_v]

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/thr ... cts-watch/

The Brahmaputra River is a 2,900 km river that originates in Tibet and flows through India’s Arunachal Pradesh state, before merging with the Ganges and draining into the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh. It is considered an important resource in all three countries that it flows through: for energy-hungry China, it provides hydroelectricity; and for India and Bangladesh, the river is a key agricultural lifeline that traverses densely populated and arid regions.

Like all of the world’s rivers, the waters of the Brahmaputra are a finite resource, and one that is being strained by growing freshwater demand in both up and downriver states. For India, the Brahmaputra is particularly important to the agricultural industry in the Assam plains, where it supports the livelihoods of an estimated 27 million people. China on the other hand has tapped into the river’s electricity-generation potential by building a series of hydroelectric plants on the Tibetan Plateau. These include:

Yamdrok Hydropower Station (operational in 1998; 112.5 MW capacity);
Zhikong Hydropower Station (2007; 225 million cubic meter reservoir, generating 100 MW);
Pangduo Hydropower Station, or ‘Tibetan Three Gorges’ (2013; 1.17 billion cubic meter reservoir, generating 160 MW);
Jiacha Hydropower Station (under construction; 320 MW);
Zangmu Dam, the world’s highest-altitude hydropower station (2015; 510 MW);
Mapcha Tsangpo Dam (under construction);
A proposed ‘super dam’ on the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra, which would become the largest hydropower project in the world


The potential for these projects to reduce the downriver flow of the Brahmaputra, whether intentionally or unintentionally, remains a source of geopolitical tension between China and India.

Some steps have been taken toward the shared management of the Brahmaputra River, notably a 2002 memorandum of understanding (MoU) whereby China agreed to share hydrological data on water flow in China’s territory. However, in an illustration of how easily these shared ecological issues can spiral into international water conflicts, the 2002 agreement was suspended by Beijing when the two militaries clashed at the contested Doklam Plateau in 2017. Though the 2002 MoU has been renewed three times, most recently in 2018, New Delhi and Beijing have yet to agree upon a comprehensive management agreement. And while many experts have argued and demonstrated that the hydrological profile of the Brahmaputra makes it ill-suited for coercive upstream manipulation (the river gathers momentum as it flows downstream), the Brahmaputra remains a potential source of friction between two of the world’s rising powers, if anything because of how the specter of water conflict looms ever larger in their strategic thinking, and even more so in the era of climate change.

[SSridhar]

The Latest ICBM Test by China and its Ramification - Chennai Centre for China Studies

[sanman]

Can China Catch Up With SpaceX?

[sanman]

US Reviving WW2-Era Airfields

[ramana]

All, would like a short well considered response to the question What does the recent Chinese agreement to restore the status quo ante mean in the long run?
Please write a short para or bullet points.
Any one-line response will lead to admin action!

[ricky_v]

hi ramana sir, i have a couple of posts that came before the deals, where the headwinds show that china was heading towards a detente

viewtopic.php?p=2632129#p2632129

viewtopic.php?p=2620025#p2620025

right now, china has a lot of distractions, external and internal, and they have limited resources to deal with all at the moment, so first things first, eliminate the low hanging fruits

1. relationship with india is a low-hanging fruit in the sense that india is a non-fussy, chalta hai, neighbour.. everybody knows this, india is a reactionary power and is only provoked if you provoke it first, and even this threshold is nebulously defined, this leads to increased short-term spend in military buildup without existing infrastructure in place, needless disagreements in multiple international fora, arming by india of not so friendly neighbours, curbing of easy investment in a good performance country, at this point, the cost that they are paying for this border issue is a lot, and the only thing they had to do was reach across the aisle and take the proffered hand, which they now have

2. the chinese internal systems are not robust, try as much as they would for a corruption-free, efficient system, it simply is not graspable for them, added to this the demographic implosion, which is a very real and frightening problem for the chinese

3. from a previous post, just to elaborate on the unlikely option that nobody else has expanded on till now; the next in-charge will be more business first than xjp, with xjp hopefully for the chinis would have solved the problem of inequal wealth distribution by then; next stage of the chapter is dhando again, probably not on steroids as in the past because of dwindling demographics, but this time with more equitable share for everyone involved, imo, xjp is more focused on the civic admin facet for the nonce

which brings us to point 4, where the chinese will emerge again more aggressive in a decade or so time, but this time with a robust internal system, and after having accumulated resources for a modern economy / war machinery, again, all of this is predicated on the fact that we do not have a world nuclear or the more likelier option, limited nuclear conflicts in the rest of the world in the coming years, my suggestion was thus, but then again, i am nobody to influence any decision:

4. and this must not be allowed to happen, it is quite apparent for some time now that china is heading into its consolidation + consolation phase of their rule, now is the time to increase more and more pressure on all fronts particularly the border; their optimum solution is to let the neighbourhood slumber till the chinese again switch into the aggressive phase a decade before 2047, and the barking wolf warriors again appear in popular discourse as the harbinger of the return of the chinese aggression, strengthen their systems, gather resources, they must be dismayed in this effort in all instances

5. a comment on their maximisation strategy, as the saying goes, the chinese system is like a tree that grows just once a year (short duration of time), and thus must grow vigorously in all directions in this short time, before it goes back into peaceful coexistence / resource gathering phase; this phase must be lengthened for them and their resources bled dry so that the optimum system for them is never allowed to take root

i would like to end with the dictum that xjp has propagated for a long time now, paraphrasing, the survival of the party / china is a battle of existence, but this battle will not be won decisively with a big battle or two, but rather by the replacement of systems, which require effort and sacrifice, and which eventually will be ground out of existence by constant and focused persistence

[sanman]

All, would like a short well considered response to the question What does the recent Chinese agreement to restore the status quo ante mean in the long run?
Please write a short para or bullet points.
Any one-line response will lead to admin action!

- Chinese rapprochement is temporary, until they can regain their footing
- We only have a temporary window to improve our defense capabilities
- Once they're out of their current predicament, they will again come at us
- In meantime, they will still do their traditional practices of salami-slicing, etc
- Fighting India is supposed to be their 3rd-priority war, after invasion of Taiwan (#1) and grabbbing Spratleys (#2) [Source: Maj Gen Narayanan]
- No matter how many positive noises they make to us, we cannot trust them or let our guard down

[VKumar]

Never trust ths Chinese and the Pakistanis.

[SRajesh]

Ramanaji:
The status quo ante is a short term breathing space that the PLA and the emperor need desperately.
Three things that upset their goals were :
1. Indian resolve to fight to the bitter end and no quater given unlike the old Congi establishment. All that noise Pappu and co were making were to discredit NaMo's resolve and try and create a public opinion of failure and find a diplomatic solution by giving in to China. That failed miserably with NaMo and BJP victory which has put paid to a pliant gobermint. Jaishankarji has called out the chinese bluff in no uncertain terms in multiple fora (unlike the congi pusillanimous response in the past).
2. The never ending Pukraine war has made it difficult for them to manoeuvre and they needed Indian support for BRICS-var on Dollar
3. Thye had hoped a quick end to the Hamas conflict and IMEC will die a premature death but that war is now a open ended question for many as to where it will go.
Their best bet of Sleepy Joe to be back in power (and with Turd in Kaneda as the running D) has met with again an untimely death. They have probably joined hands with some Neocons to create trouble for India but again the Indian resolve has surprised them.
Their best bet now Is :
1. Mami to win and continue neeedling India
2. Pukraine to continue and Unkil will keep printing dollars and reach a stage where they can try an pull the rug.
3. Their most hoped for bet : NaMo to give up power half way through this term and a new person may not carry the fight forward.
Rest of the noise they are making is just a smokescreen for their preparation.

[Cyrano]

My 2 cents:

Why did the border aggressions happen in 2020?
- China wary of India - US rapprochement and joint exercises in the Himalayas, Arunachal, and naval exercises
- Art 370 and Ladakh UT made them think GoI has some aggressive ideas for the northern borders
- Akhand Bharat rhetoric might have spooked some paranoid elements in CCP/PLA
- India refusal to join RCEP, BRI and QUAD cooperation was also alarming
- China thought it could coerce India into rethinking on these fronts by creating a border situation to show who is the boss in Asia, and more importantly to gauge India's reaction and to what extent our new friends will help out.
- Doing this while COVID was raging would make it all the more complicated for India and friends to go into full scale retaliation

How it panned out:
- India resisted quickly and comprehensively across the entire border
- India's mobilisation and going public with it instead of downplaying and brushing under the carpet like a congi govt would have done leading to huge internal public support strengthening Modi's hand
- Galwan and the subsequent race to the mountain tops was a clear demonstration of India's resolve to defend militarily
- The whole episode only strengthened the case for more US India mil and Intel cooperation and real time exchange
- Dr SJ played it superbly on the international scene and was quite open to talk about it
- Banning of tiktok and other apps, curbs on imports etc could have caught on broadly in the west
- BRI and 5/6G standards that China wanted to control were toast with the COVID generated economic slump
- China moved first but had no next move to India's reaction, they had no option but to hunker down with their pampered princeling soldiers. But for how long?!

What made China back off now?
- Ukraine war showed that India is not in any western camp but in it's own
- Also it showed that all the high tech cannot prevent battle field casualties and body bags will come, the numbers will only be much higher in inhospitable terrain like the Himalayas
- Despite all it's might and warheads Russia could not achieve a short and quick decisive victory in SMO, may drag on for a while still
- Post COVID economic slump in the western economies and the world in general means China is now stuck with a huge over capacity in many categories of consumer goods and doodads it can no longer sell (that's why dumping apps like Temu have proliferated)
- EU economy is screwed, US is saddled with huge debt and BRICS will make dollar lose value and make Chinese exports more expensive world wide
- the only promising long term market with increasing purchasing power and huge volumes for the future is India, at least for the rest of the decade.
- Trump coming back, chips act impacts plus EU carbon taxes, EV sales slump, tariff wars are all just a few months away.
- India's efforts to scale up mfg and appear as an alternative

Net net the Panda has to put on some lipstick and look attractive again, and gain some of the lost dominance and Xi/CCP have to create some plausible story for internal consumption to keep shit under control.
- BRICS push by Putin means instead of scaring India into submission, China has now realised it might be better to coopt and use India as a buffer/go between to hold off the US from getting more and more aggressive on Taiwan.
- perhaps China also wants to show it can be negotiated with and can be reasonable, and that wolf warriors have been tamed.

The border adventure has not generated expected returns for a variety of reasons so might as well make it look like a magnanimous gesture of goodwill. LoL !

I give a lot of credit to NaMo, indian military, diplomats and people for holding ground and just letting it play out in the face of incredible confluence of circumstances and also for not crowing too much or prematurely that "we have defeated china" though that may happen in election times.

What next?
- China has many many uncertainties in the future, due to it's imposed and excessive globalisation. Demographics, Tech denials, tariffs, market access, geopolitical belligerence and it's own karma to deal with.

The leopard's spots won't change but sometimes it can be taught to respect electric fences and leave the cows inside alone. As long as the fence is up and current buzzing, it will make a few paw jabs now and then depending on how starved it is. Given so much rebalancing that's happening, IMHO it's hard to predict any specific actions/reactions or timelines.

JMT...

[sanman]

How USA's new missile system is posing a problem for China

[ramana]

Many retired jingo generals and experts are unhappy that Kazan meeting happened.
BTW news reports say 90% disengagement already happened.
Oct 29th is the milestone date.
Again 20 October was 62nd anniversary of the 1962 Chinese aggression.
No one remembered it.

[Leonard]

There were some interesting signals communicated during the meet-up between PM Modi & CCP Supremo Xi Jinping ...

Perhaps the KARGIL electric prod was "sharply" inserted by Pres Putin ? -- See the Video & closely observe/Read the "Facial" signs/signals from Xi and contrast that with PM Modi ..

https://youtu.be/MOdbLE5iPSA?t=16

Xi - just does not want to be there - while PM Modi is Beaming ... This is priceless ..

Now contrast this with Shehbaz Sharif & Clinton post 3 hr's meeting after Kargil ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvgMJqvntFg

Shehbaz's facial expressions after his Massive balloon was pricked by Clinton are priceless