Elections Modi 3.0

[Deans]

Posting this as we have our first state assembly results after LS 24 (before counting)
I have not found a suitable thread to post, so I am starting this - mods, please shift this if required.

My concern is that the NDA govt can lose power in a series of neighboring and sensitive states:
J&K. Himachal, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.

I expect Delhi will again vote for AAP.

These are states which are large contributors to the army (Jammu and Himachal more than Punjab and Haryana). 3 of them are sensitive
border states. Being small, development initiatives should flow more easily to the common man. I am concerned as to what the loss of these
states means for our national security in the longer term.

I had done 2 blog posts, which might point to some issues:
Kashmir (summarizing my blogpost) : While militancy is quantifiably down and tourism up as a consequence, overall development in 5 years
of central rule is not different from earlier. PDP has also been rejected for lack of development.

Haryana & Jammu - Agnipath scheme may be a factor in youth being less enthused by BJP (also in earlier Himachal elections).

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/07/ka ... e-370.html

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/ag ... rward.html

The results of Haryana and J&K are not known at the time of writing. I may be wrong and there will most likely be other relevant issues.
Hope to kick off some healthy discussions.

[Supratik]

BJP has provided relatively corruption free Govt in Haryana for the last 10 years. But it is too heavily dependent on Center. Very few state gvt projects. Khattar was clean but very slow and a poor communicator. Saini has been there only for 6 months but is a much better communicator and has taken fast decisions to reverse the slide. Urban voters have solidly voted for BJP while rural voters are behind INC. Jat-Dalit caste consolidation did not happen to that extent as many Jats and Dalits are now educated, middle class and urban. They do not want to vote just based on caste. Money is flowing like water in many parts of Haryana. Infrastructure has dramatically improved. But jobs for locals are an issue due to lack of education and state govt not doing enough on industry.

Jammu has solidly voted for BJP. However, BJP has not done much for Jammu. Most of the money has gone to Kashmir especially the valley. Jammu voted for BJP primarily because the NC-INC coalition promised to bring back Art 370 and Art 35A which they don't want. BJP was expecting a split in Kashmir but that did not happen. The plan failed.

Number of voters in Jammu is more than in Kashmir but the seat distribution does not reflect that. This is primarily due to faulty census. Hope they fix it after 2025 census and carry out fresh delimitation in 2026. Otherwise they will have to bifurcate the state.

[AkshaySG]

Pleasent surprise, Haryana is a win for BJP and vote share in J&K is encouraging even if Abdoolah got a full majority. It is clear that BJP has made some inroads in the UTs.

Supreme Court order not withstanding I felt the UTs needed at least 5 more years of central/LG/president's rule to continue the progress and rein in terror even more. It usually takes a generation for progress to start making an impact on people's lives and livelihood

[Deans]

Definitely a pleasant surprise in Haryana, especially after the exit polls, which promoted my earlier post.

In J&K, I think the biggest positive is that the PDP is out - they were the most pro separatist & Islamist party.
Congress is also largely rejected from Jammu.

In Haryana, the minor parties, which extract their ransom during a coalition govt are also also out.
BJP got 39.94% vote share compared to 39.1% for Cong. So no room for complacency for BJP.
BJP gained 3.5% vote share, which made all the difference.
Cong gained 11% but at the expense of state parties.

[chetak]

#HaryanaElectionResult

क्या से क्या हो गया देखते देखते......

[hanumadu]

This time BJP promised rupees 2100/month for each woman to compete with Congress' Rs 2000. Freebies are here to stay.

[Supratik]

It will stay till we pull overwhelming majority of people into the middle class. However, it has to be sensible and not khata-khat khata-khat schemes.

[vijayk]

If BJP can win MH too, jaati card would be destroyed. BJP might also have found a way to stop instagram/youtube lies/disinfo which has become main weapon of Soros led BIF forces working with Pappu

[fanne]

Adani position is safe as India richest with Haryana win



























Damad ji cannot beat him now

[vijayk]

https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/18 ... 5885364583
BJP is getting MASSIVE leads at places where Yogi Adityanath campaigned

Let's verify

[Amber G.]

From a twitter thread (not 100% sure of the actual results):

BJP narrowly lost Gurez in Baramulla by just 1,132 votes, a seat that's 98% Muslim where BJP previously had no footing.

Here's the latest vote share in J&K:

BJP: 25.79%

JKNC: 23.39%

INC: 12.01%

BJP has outperformed JKNC in vote share! Meanwhile, Congress leads in 5 seats, and independents in 7. Feel free to let Rahul Gandhi claim moral victory on this too.

[chetak]

From a twitter thread (not 100% sure of the actual results):

BJP narrowly lost Gurez in Baramulla by just 1,132 votes, a seat that's 98% Muslim where BJP previously had no footing.

Here's the latest vote share in J&K:

BJP: 25.79%

JKNC: 23.39%

INC: 12.01%

BJP has outperformed JKNC in vote share! Meanwhile, Congress leads in 5 seats, and independents in 7. Feel free to let Rahul Gandhi claim moral victory on this too.

Amber Mohtarma,



they knew what was coming in haryana, and so, he is as expected, out of India, having smartly got away well before the counting even started

minor birds of prey can often smell carrion from great distances ....

[vijayk]

The Pappu gang is probably right now licking the feet of Alex Soros and his fiancee Huma Abedin and fellow Jihadi/Khalistani gangs

[sanjaykumar]

Haryana, Jammu and some popular vote in the Kashmir valley.

I am satisfied.

[chetak]

Modi ji calls out the deep state, the BIF, and the congis, who he says are part of it all



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i3bjKIApF4



'Cong hatching conspiracies globally to weaken India's economy': PM Modi on Haryana & J&K verdict







Addressing party workers in Delhi, PM Modi says,

"...For some time now, many conspiracies are being hatched against India. Many conspiracies are being hatched to weaken India's democracy and social fabric.

International conspiracies are being hatched.

National parties like Congress and their allies are involved in this game.

Today Haryana has given a befitting reply to every such conspiracy.

Every Indian will have to take a pledge that we will not let any such conspiracy succeed. India will not deviate from the path of development.

[chetak]

Haryana, Jammu and some popular vote in the Kashmir valley.

I am satisfied.

sanjaykumar ji,

It was the strong support of the Nagpur nationalist cohorts that clinched it for the BJP in both states.

The BJP ended up with a 25% vote share in cashmere along with a commendable number of seats

[drnayar]

This time BJP promised rupees 2100/month for each woman to compete with Congress' Rs 2000. Freebies are here to stay.

I say give freebies to those who can't see beyond what is in front for them. For state election; lol sabha or whatever.. also make sure the congis can't

[vimal]

Haryana BJP played UNO reverse caste card in this election. They consolidated SC and OBC against split Jaat votes.
If Congress can play it, so can BJP.

Guess who was the star campaigner for BJP? Yes the baba Ram-rahim of dera ram rahim who was jailed under BJP government. RR was attacked by ROP for preventing their conversion factories.

Also, anyone noticed the sabka saath, sabka vikas nonsense has been quietly buried and glad it is.
Modiji has single-handedly created dozens of peaceful IAS/IPS and other civil services officers which will come back to bite India. The freebies for peacefuls he has unleashed at the expense of SC/ST will be analyzed like how Gandi destroyed India with his ram alla nonsense.

[Amber G.]

BJP wins Shri Mata Vaishno Devi seat in Jammu while Congress even loses its deposits here. Out of 43 seats in Jammu region, only 30 are Hindu dominated. BJP has won 29 out of them

[hanumadu]

Modiji has single-handedly created dozens of peaceful IAS/IPS and other civil services officers which will come back to bite India. The freebies for peacefuls he has unleashed at the expense of SC/ST will be analyzed like how Gandi destroyed India with his ram alla nonsense.

There has been no significant increase in muslim numbers since Modi increased funding for Haj centers.

https://www.siasat.com/list-of-muslim-c ... r-3018964/

[vimal]

Modiji has single-handedly created dozens of peaceful IAS/IPS and other civil services officers which will come back to bite India. The freebies for peacefuls he has unleashed at the expense of SC/ST will be analyzed like how Gandi destroyed India with his ram alla nonsense.

There has been no significant increase in muslim numbers since Modi increased funding for Haj centers.

https://www.siasat.com/list-of-muslim-c ... r-3018964/

70% increase all thanks to Modiji. Why are you quoting a malaise source??

https://theprint.in/india/over-70-jump- ... 44654/?amp

[Cyrano]

Why did the central govt conduct elections in J&K without proper census and delimitation? The picture could have been different

[hanumadu]

There has been no significant increase in muslim numbers since Modi increased funding for Haj centers.

https://www.siasat.com/list-of-muslim-c ... r-3018964/

70% increase all thanks to Modiji. Why are you quoting a malaise source??

https://theprint.in/india/over-70-jump- ... 44654/?amp

You will find the same info from other sources also, but muslims seem to collate this data more actively than others for obvious reasons. 70% increase is from the previous year, but the number has been reached previously. There has been a dip in 2021, 2022 due to lesser overall intake, perhaps because of the pandemic.

Muslims are funding their aspirants with free coaching and there is more awareness among their youth. So, their numbers will increase, Modi or not.

[chetak]

a fine example of the congi problem: premature ej@........... ...... :mrgreen:

[Rakesh]

What a pitiful state India is in. We are always one election away from disaster!

https://x.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/18 ... 1588254112 ---> Haryana Election was the most important election in India. Delhi People especially should thank Haryana voters. Had BJP lost in Haryana, Delhi would have faced blockades & protests on daily basis. Bhupinder Singh Hooda had already said he would open Haryana-Punjab order and allow protestors to enter Haryana and reach Delhi.

[sanjayc]

^^ After election defeat, Hooda has begun to look like a corpse

[Rakesh]

^^ After election defeat, Hooda has begun to look like a corpse

That is so true....just see this video of Hooda...

https://x.com/Pranati2306/status/1843644176392741156

[chetak]

If BJP can win MH too, jaati card would be destroyed. BJP might also have found a way to stop instagram/youtube lies/disinfo which has become main weapon of Soros led BIF forces working with Pappu

vijayk ji,


This is an exposed weapon. The laws of diminishing returns will apply


The BJP cadres know how to counter it and so do the nagpur brigades

[Cyrano]

Please listen to Col Raina on yt/Deftalks

Once more BJP scored a self goal in these J&K elections

[chetak]

[chetak]

Amit Malviya@amitmalviya

Ashok Wankhede is unrelenting on his charge of casting couch against senior Congress leader KC Venugopal.

The silence of the Congress party is adding legitimacy to the allegations.

Earlier, Congress’s Simi Rose Bell and Sharda Rathore, a two term MLA, from Haryana, have confirmed presence of casting couch, to get ahead in the Congress.

KC Venugopal must speak up.

It is no surprise. Such allegations are repeatedly surfacing.

[chetak]

vi@WA


There is a cunning narrative being floated by congi supporters that people of haryana were against BJP & for congress, but the congress lost because of its own local leaders in fighting.

the truth is very different

~Haryana voted in favor of the AGNIVEER scheme

~Haryana voted against the congi declaration to allow the pseudo kisan andolan to continue

~Haryana voted against the monopoly of dienasties like the booda family, who openly promised to favor only one community/caste while excluding or sidelining all others

~Haryana recognized all the good work done by khattar and the same being continued by saini as well

[chetak]

some "leaders" are born teflon coated. No blame, accountability, or responsibility for failure ever sticks to them

even as they lurch from fiasco to fiasco, disaster to disaster, catastrophe to catastrophe, they seem to think that their long rusted clan bestowed halos continue to remain brightly burnished because their self serving sycophants, and other local and hopeful caravan climbing dienastic deviants, and system exploiting dubious darbaris keep telling them so, while all the time busy in lining their own pockets

A modern retelling of the emperor's new clothes

Whatever be the nature of their inherited sense of entitlement, how much longer do such gasbags think they will continue to remain a protected species, with halo, government given lootyens bungalow, expensive and round the clock protective detail and all other free perks guaranteed by the taxpayer


from the net

Rahul Gandhi Blames Haryana Congress Leaders For Election Loss

In a brief meeting with Haryana Congress leaders, Rahul Gandhi said that the selfishness of Haryana leaders contributed to the party's electoral defeat. Attending a review meeting led by party president Mallikarjun Kharge, Gandhi raised two significant points. He questioned the effectiveness of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and the Election Commission, demanding a detailed report on the counting process.

However, his second point struck a nerve: he accused local leaders of prioritising their personal ambitions over the party's success, suggesting that the election was winnable. Sources indicate that Gandhi's remarks were directed at all leaders, not just the Hoodas, leading to an uncomfortable silence in the room.

[chetak]

If there is only one video you watch this month, let it be this one


Haryana walon, bahut bahut galat kiya aap logon ne.....

Spare 6.46 minutes & watch this. This is really EPIC!



WATCH VIDEO

[chetak]

Small Thread on BJP & Congress Vote share in Haryana Assembly elections highlighting the importance of ‘Nuh’ district in overall congress vote share-

In Nuh, Congress won all the three seats with whopping margins & its vote share was 64% as compared to BJP’s 11%






Overall gap in BJP & Congress vote share in Haryana was 0.8% ( 39.9% vs 39.1%) but if we exclude Nuh, then this gap increases to 2.8%( 41% vs 38.2%) for remaining 87 seats across haryana..

Still people are raising eyebrows over BJP’s Victory & calling it close election?

Take Sirsa out of it as well! BJP left it to INLD and Kanda. Check the vote share of bjp and congress in rest of districts. BJP would be plus 5 percent.

By removing sirsa district where BJP give walkover to INLD and you will see BJP nearing 45 % vote share.

And that explains why BJP got outsized number of seats vs congress while the overall vote shares were quite close.

[chetak]

What kind of masterstroke is this ...

Whatever you do, they will NOT vote for you. How difficult is it to learn this simple lesson

[Manish_P]

What kind of masterstroke is this ...

Whatever you do, they will NOT vote for you. How difficult is it to learn this simple lesson
..

Chetak sir, sharing some personal observations. Till a few days ago, the buzz in our colony whatsapp and social groups was the NDA was going to lose. All these was based on chatter from the maids and helps (folks who actually go and vote in numbers).

This was amplified by the middle class (who hire these help) who were cribbing that IT slabs were unchanged, the indexation on property sale was removed, LTCG /STCG taxes etc (since many have now started investing in stocks thanks to the ease of mobile Apps). They were even miffed about the 'Ladki bahin' scheme which almost all the maids applied for in a rush and took leaves for (my own maid took a 3 day leave to go to her native place in south maharashtra to get all her papers in order).
Their thinking was the amounts are all going from taxes which the middle class pays.

A week or so ago the congress and SS started declaring they will stop the scheme and the middle class group expressed happiness while the lower income group started becoming vocal in favor of the NDA.

And now the NDA announces the increase in salaries of the madrassa teachers leading to anger in both the middle class and the lower income group.

Net net there is a lot of confusion around and both groups have now gone silent

Just my anecdotal two paisa observations of the past few days

PS: BTW my workplace is an pre-dominantly 'peaceful' area. There is NO confusion there. They speak in favor of the Congress-SS. They are confident that the Con-SS will replace the 'Ladki bahin' scheme with something for their specific community and not remove the salary increase for the madrassa maulanas.

[hanumadu]

What kind of masterstroke is this ...

Whatever you do, they will NOT vote for you. How difficult is it to learn this simple lesson

This is not for their votes. Existing salaries of 6,000 and 8,000 are paltry sums. No body can survive on those amounts. But the more important objective is to provide modern education to muslims. The salary increases are for people with D.Ed and B.Ed., qualification and I am guessing no maulanas are getting those qualifications. Its for those teaching math, science, languages etc. Education, especially women's education is the single biggest factor in population control. This is money well spent that will ultimately benefit India and Hindus. If you wan't to stop muslim women from having 3 kids by the time they are 20, provide education to them as much as possible. Incentivize them to continuing studying till degree at least. Give them free bicycles, free scooters, free computers, what ever, but make sure they are educated and not married before 20.

[hanumadu]

What kind of masterstroke is this ...

Whatever you do, they will NOT vote for you. How difficult is it to learn this simple lesson
..

This was amplified by the middle class (who hire these help) who were cribbing that IT slabs were unchanged, the indexation on property sale was removed, LTCG /STCG taxes etc (since many have now started investing in stocks thanks to the ease of mobile Apps).

The indexation on property was removed but LTCG was also cut from 20% to 12.5%. And on properties purchased before the budget, you can opt for indexation. The STCG for property was reduced from normal slab rates to 20%. It is largely beneficial and the downside is very little. If you have held the property for any significant of time, the inflation index amount is way less than the capital gain. You would have ended up paying 20% for most of the gains. Instead now a person can opt to pay 12.5% on a slightly higher non indexed capital gains.

For example a 1 lakh property purchased 20 years ago is worth at least 20 lakh in most urban centers in India, a 20 times increases. Inflation index would only give you a 3.5 times increase that is 3.5 lakhs. Your tax based on indexation would be 20% of 16.5 (20-3.5) lakhs which is 3.3 lakhs.
Without indexation it would be 12.5% of 19 (20-1) lakhs which comes to 2.375 lakhs. The higher the property gain, the more attractive the new rates will be.

There has been a slight 2.5% increase in LTCG for capital gains in equity but the exemption has been raised from 1 lakh to 1.25 lakhs. They can vote for NDA INDI and they won't have to pay any CGT because there wont be any capital gains.

[Manish_P]

What kind of masterstroke is this ...

Whatever you do, they will NOT vote for you. How difficult is it to learn this simple lesson

....Education, especially women's education is the single biggest factor in population control. This is money well spent that will ultimately benefit India and Hindus....

Isn't Girls education free upto standard ten? And after that till a graduation degree it is subsidized.

Also as per a goverment study in 2022 less than 5% of Muslim children were studying in madarssas. Perhaps it might be better to get them incentivized to study in regular schools rather than incentivizing Madarssas teachers.