Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[srai]

Big ammo dump blown up causing a 2.8 magnitude earthquake

[Deans]

Part 9 of my Ukraine war blog.
This one is the longest and has the most detailed numbers for each sector of the front - I did this as I had not seen this analysis done anywhere else.

Read along with part 8, to understand casualties. Part 9 flows from that.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/09/uk ... lysis.html

[srai]

Big ammo dump blown up causing a 2.8 magnitude earthquake

Aerial Images of before and after

[srai]

Rheinmetall’s Ukrainian expansion is building a defense industry powerhouse

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is investing heavily in Ukraine, setting up joint production facilities for armored vehicles, ammunition, and air defense systems. The move aims to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities and position Rheinmetall as the “number one option for the Ukrainian army.”

The number of orders for Rheinmetall corporation, the largest German arms manufacturer, has grown by nearly 50%—from €26 billion to €38 billion—since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022.
…

Recently, the German defense corporation opened the first joint production plant with Ukrainian state-owned defense enterprise Ukroboronprom in Ukraine—a workshop for the repair and production of armored vehicles.

According to Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, another three factories will be launched soon. They will produce shells, military vehicles, gunpowder, and anti-aircraft weapons.

…

Rheinmetall’s CEO, Armin Papperger, estimates that the production in Ukraine may bring the company $2-3 billion annually.

…
The most significant of the new facilities will be the ammunition production plant, where Rheinmetall plans to produce a “six-figure” quantity of projectiles annually. Powder charges, a critical component for ammo, will also be manufactured in Ukraine. Currently, no enterprises in Ukraine produce 155-millimeter shells and their powder charges.
…
When will the air defense systems plant be launched?

The factory project for air defense systems is under development. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said it is expected to become operational within one to two years. Its services may involve the repair and production of 35mm Skyranger and Skynex anti-aircraft systems, which the Ukrainian forces use against Russia’s targets.
…
What types of weapons will be repaired at the armored vehicles factory?

Rheinmetall’s armored vehicles enterprise at Ukroboronprom’s facilities is already operational. In June, a German workshop for the repair of Marder armored vehicles and Leopard 1 tanks was opened.

Additionally, this facility can produce Fuchs armored personnel carriers and Lynx infantry fighting vehicles.
…
Over time, Ukrainian Defence Industry enterprises may learn how to produce parts for these armored vehicles and deepen localization.
…

[sanman]

Rheinmetall’s Ukrainian expansion is building a defense industry powerhouse

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is investing heavily in Ukraine, setting up joint production facilities for armored vehicles, ammunition, and air defense systems. The move aims to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities and position Rheinmetall as the “number one option for the Ukrainian army.”
…

Is Poland going to be happy about that? They better hope NATO never goes away, or else there can be some serious imbalances in Europe that play out dangerously.

[IndraD]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... t-toropets Blast from attack on Russian arms depot picked up on earthquake monitors

Ukraine/Nato striking Russian weapon store without fear, today also a strike carried out, accepted by Russian handles as true
How far will red line be pushed?
US wants Russia to use nuke to bring it to a conclusion while losing on ground.

[sanman]

Former military chief of staff General Valerii Zaluzhny, whom comedian Zelensky had sacked, seems to be making a comeback as Zelensky comes under pressure due to the Kursk debacle:

[srai]

Another mega ammo storage blown up …



There are estimates that these two attacks on mega storage sites could have destroyed like 3-months worth of stockpiles.

[Lisa]

^ Russia spans 11 time zones. It would be difficult to store 3 months of supply in 2 depots within range of Ukraine.

[sanman]

Piers Morgan debates Prof John Mearsheimer




When do Brits ever turn down an opportunity to be hostile toward Russia?
That's like Iranians turning down an opportunity to be hostile toward Israel.
Or Pakistanis turning down an opportunity to be hostile toward India.

I think the Brits like to rally the Europeans around them by painting Russia as the "other" - ie. the great outside adversary
Likewise, the Iranians want to rally the rest of the Middle East around themselves by painting the Israelis as the great foreign devil

[sanman]

Ukraine Unveils ‘Palianytsia’ Rocket Drone for Strikes Deep Into Russia

https://thedefensepost.com/2024/08/27/u ... ne-russia/

This new cheapo cruise missile from Ukraine seems to be proving to be a threat

[sanman]

Another mega ammo storage blown up …
...
There are estimates that these two attacks on mega storage sites could have destroyed like 3-months worth of stockpiles.

^ Russia spans 11 time zones. It would be difficult to store 3 months of supply in 2 depots within range of Ukraine.

How come Israel has Iron Dome to stop all the missiles, but Russia can't stop strikes like these?

[Lisa]

Russia = 17,098,246 Sq Km

Israel = 21,937 Sq Km

The border between Russia and Ukraine border is 2,295 kilometers long

The border between Israel and Lebanon is 81 kilometers long

[Tanaji]

Also Nato has excellent ISR over the front line. They can identify EW gaps that Ukraine exploits. Complete with video footage so that it can be posted here…

[Manish_P]

Russian Su 57 shoots down own S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth drone (Claim)

[sanman]

they should really just give up now - you cannot beat the Mother Russia

[Deans]

Russian Su 57 shoots down own S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth drone (Claim)

They then sent an Iskander missile to hit the team that that gone to salvage the wreckage.
Both the Su-57 and the drone it was controlling had apparently been operating in Ukrainian airspace undetected for a few days.
The drone lost its guidance system and drifted deeper into Ukraine, so it was shot down by the SU-57.

[Deans]

Russia = 17,098,246 Sq Km

Israel = 21,937 Sq Km

The border between Russia and Ukraine border is 2,295 kilometers long

The border between Israel and Lebanon is 81 kilometers long

There is a huge disparity in the airspace size to be defended and the fact that NATO has studied Russian counter measures for the last 2.5
years. Also, Iranian missiles are knockoffs of Chinese copies of the Russian originals.
That said, Russia intercepts the same proportion of missiles as Iron dome, David's sling and Arrow (about 90%).

[Manish_P]

Russian Su 57 shoots down own S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth drone (Claim)

They then sent an Iskander missile to hit the team that that gone to salvage the wreckage.
Both the Su-57 and the drone it was controlling had apparently been operating in Ukrainian airspace undetected for a few days.
The drone lost its guidance system and drifted deeper into Ukraine, so it was shot down by the SU-57.

Thanks for the info.

Was the drone close to the Felon when it malfunctioned. A low RCS drone would be difficult to detect at longer ranges I would imagine.

[Aditya_V]

Yes as per the video the drone was really close less than 1 Km, probably required for IR lock due to low radar and low heat signature.

but if this was over Ukranian held territory, I would be surprised that both these would operate in an IRIS-T/ Patriot environment where even if there was Radar gap, flying in daylight where ever ground observer can alert Ukrainian air defenses.

or it would make sense that the aircraft had to get in close shoot down the drone and immediately turned tail escaping to safer territory

[Manish_P]

Yes as per the video the drone was really close less than 1 Km, probably required for IR lock due to low radar and low heat signature...

Thanks. I saw the video on mute. For the visuals only.

While i can see the intercept was from close range, I am more curious about the detection range. It's guidance system is said to have failed so it would have strayed off it's programmed fly path. So which platform did the detection or was it via an onboard system (which would be unlikely as it is supposed to be a low emission platform).

[Aditya_V]

I guess the drone would have been transmitting it's coordinates to the Russians, so that data should been available to the Su 57 as where the drone, what amazes me is why Ukrainians taking avideo at this time without any Air defence missiles going towards the fighter

[Cyrano]

From an ex French Rafale pilot in English

[sanman]

[sanman]

[drnayar]

[youtube]oXkfBRLxMk4[/youtube

I guess it's better to be a conscription officer in Ukraine than face the Russian meat grinder !

[sanman]

I guess it's better to be a conscription officer in Ukraine than face the Russian meat grinder !

They're getting more desperate with their recruitment approach

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1832032930690207944


Holy crap these people are desperate

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... campaigns/

[Sharads]

https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/1841714702449340558
"General reminder that there are no major fortifications beyond the orange line. At this rate the front will collapse in 9 months to a year."



For Russians, it seems, Ukrainian collapse is always just around the corner.

[Tanaji]

Rule of thumb: If there is no news on the wars progress in western media then it means the war is going well for the Russians. If Baniansky is out with his katora then it means his Bradleys, Abrams, F16s, Atacams and storm shadows aren’t making that much of a difference…

[Jay]

Rule of thumb: If there is no news on the wars progress in western media then it means the war is going well for the Russians. If Baniansky is out with his katora then it means his Bradleys, Abrams, F16s, Atacams and storm shadows aren’t making that much of a difference…

We are almost 3 years into this conflict and yet, the same stuff is regurgitated day after day, without any irony. Sure, the war is going well for Russians.

[Tanaji]

The entire technological might of Nato thrown in, unlimited funds, unlimited advisers, unparalled ISR, free weapons…..

And we are where we are.

[Aditya_V]

Each Side has been upping the Ante since 1991 - its seems the Apr 22 decision of NATO- confirmed by Nuland herself, They were way to overcondifent that Russia would split into pieces, since Putin's initial Gambit's had failed.

Anyways UK USA can walk away from this conflict, only Russia and Ukraine have played a heavy price in blood for this conflict

[Sharads]

https://xcancel.com/Zlatti_71/status/18 ... 00912698#m




The American empire has gotten so reassured of Russian nonresponse to every escalation that it has been war gaming Ukraine's accesion into NATO, and the nuclear dimension of it, after the Russian failure to retake Ukraine.
Elina Ribakova, a participant in this war game, had proposed, with caution, sanctions on India for trading with Russia.
www.readkong.com/page/russia-sanctions- ... va-2695406

[Garooda]

Each Side has been upping the Ante since 1991 - its seems the Apr 22 decision of NATO- confirmed by Nuland herself, They were way to overcondifent that Russia would split into pieces, since Putin's initial Gambit's had failed.

Anyways UK USA can walk away from this conflict, only Russia and Ukraine have played a heavy price in blood for this conflict

Absolutely agree.

[Garooda]

The entire technological might of Nato thrown in, unlimited funds, unlimited advisers, unparalled ISR, free weapons…..

And we are where we are.

And what was thrown in by the Russians ? Care to elaborate ? foreign mercs, troops, weapons, etc ? I'm sure none of it is free.

[VKumar]

USA will fight Russia till the last Ukranian

[Tanaji]

And what was thrown in by the Russians ? Care to elaborate ? foreign mercs, troops, weapons, etc ? I'm sure none of it is free.

Please read Deans excellent blog on this topic - one of the most researched resource on this topic. Its linked earlier. Russia has exchanged a lot of convict troops for crack Ukranian troops. Of course Russia has lost a lot of regular troops as well… but it can sustain this war in terms of manpower longer than the Ukranians.

Russians overestimated themselves and severely underestimated the opposition in the initial phase. The West thought with their tech advantage and superior training and tactics provided to Ukes, the front will collapse and they will march to Moscow. Both sides have been embarrassed. The war has shown the Western weapons are not infallible and the the Russian war machine is incompetent.

The war is going well for Russians because they have withstood whatever the combined might of Nato can throw at it and are still standing. Not because they are winning…

[srai]

Ukraine - training ground for everyone… now North Korean troops

[srai]

AI and drones… 80% success rates compared with less than 50% for seasoned human operators and only 10% for newbies.

[Cyrano]

Latest Analysis from a not so neutral Austrian officer who has done similar analyses before that some people here may recollect.