MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[A Deshmukh]

Our industrial capacity is about 20 years behind Chinese.
Competing today on numbers is impossible.
Any hope or fighting chance is asymmetric till we build our capacities and numbers.

Few weakness on Chinese side:
a) low population...decades of single child / princelings resulting in
(1) hesitancy in sending soldier/pilots to deaths
(2) less trained manpower. current ratio of fighter planes to pilots is 1:1. (for comparison ours is 1:3).

b) low quality ...they may have numbers, but how servicable?
ex: all their Aircraft Carriers are frequently in dock. Are they blue water navy yet?

our steps till we achieve parity would be to inflict unacceptable damage, if they tried any mischief.

[Rakesh]

Yes. Kaveri in Ghatak is the solution - but that's for for the strike role

We still need hundreds of fighters (manned and/or unmanned) to counter the hundreds of J-10, J-11, J-20, J-16, J-31s fighters, complemented by multiples of loyal wingman type UCAVs the chinese will be able to bring to bear against us.

And of course since it's not a knight-vs-knight joust like ye olde times, we need lots of highly capable ground based AAD systems.

Like the IN (Subs or ACs), the IAF faces a very tough choice.

Aircraft presently relegated for the strike role can be replaced in the future, with aircraft in the air dominance role. So yes the IAF does certainly require more aircraft, but this 42 squadron strength is becoming increasingly hard pressed to achieve. There has to be a reassessment of the force structure with the introduction of UCAVs. Air Forces the world over are moving towards this trend and it is high time the IAF does the same. Similarly with long range stand-off weaponry as well ---> viewtopic.php?p=2632565#p2632565

[Rakesh]

My reply to your post rests on the premise that the Indian Govt will force the IAF to shut down the S-400 platform and also stop development on Project Kusha as well because we are getting the F-35. How many more local programs will we have to shut down to get true-blue stealth capability from the US? After wasting billions on F-35, then we can waste billions more on THAAD as well...along with a host of other US weaponry. Where does it stop?

That's the point isn't it ... there's no way we can play the numbers game with the Chinese (MIC), so all these talk about war-of-attrition etc is meaningless.

China will prevail in the numbers game and it is for this reason that India will not win a war of attrition against China.

Meaningless is not the correct term. Meaningful (for both sides) is a more apt term.

We can learn that "Meaningful" lesson the hard way or the easy way.

But then that's the beauty of asymmetricity that a true-blue 5th Gen platform brings about ... and that's because, and as I've said before, a 5th Gen platform deployed-capability is not about taking on another adversarial 5th Gen platform on AA warfare - the currently available onboard radar/EO/EW suites are not capable enough to do so.

So there needs to be a capability match wrt 5th Gen platform vs all other anti/counter 5th Gen deployments (so that deterrence sets in) - and is not about pure numbers. In fact, ironically, better capable 5th Gen platforms, higher is the asymmetry, and thus higher is the deterrence value.

Wrt this, a crude analogy would be, the Nukelar arms stockpiles - going by this same numbers logic, there's no hope for us (against the Chinese), isn't it? But, both you and I (and lot of us here) knows that's not the case. Why? Because, deterrence is not about numbers alone.

Nuclear stockpiles is not the correct analogy or even a crude one. Nuclear deterrence works, whether it is 172 nuclear warheads (India's estimated stockpile as of 2024) versus 500 nuclear warheads (China's estimated stockpile as of 2024). Dropping nuclear bombs on Beijing and other population centres in China (in retaliation for a Chinese nuclear strike on India) will devastate both countries. And India's nuclear retaliation is guaranteed with her proven triad (land, air and sea) and along with the MIRV capability. And China is well aware that there is no point in teaching the evil Yindoos a lesson, when millions of your own people and your infrastructure will evaporate into radioactive dust.

In a nuclear exchange, no one wins and there is no hope for either side. This is why the doctrine of MAD is effective.

There is a world of a difference between this and going head-to-head against a J-20, while you are flying your own VLO aircraft (F-35 or whatever else). China can lose VLO aircraft and bring in even more VLO and non-VLO aircraft into the mix. We have very little room to make up for attrition losses. In the attrition game, prevailing against the PLAAF will be challenging.

There is not a soul in China - including Xi himself - that truly believes that the J-20 can triumph over the F-22/F-35 in head-to-head combat. They will obviously state otherwise for propaganda purposes, but they know that the F-22/F-35 will prevail. Their solution is to then overwhelm the technological superiority via numbers. Their strategy rests on that premise. It is for this very reason that the PLAAF is expecting to induct a fleet of over a 1,000 J-20s by the next decade. If the J-20 was as good as their own propaganda states, they will obviously not need this large quantity of J-20s that they are planning to induct. The J-31 fleet strength will be even higher, as it will be a cheaper alternative to the J-20. Then there is a whole slew of J-10s, J-11s, J-16s, Su-30MKK/MK2s and the soon-to-arrive clone of the Su-35S that will also have to be dealt with.

What will you do when you run out of air-to-air missiles in attempting to shoot down all these aircraft? And that is assuming that all AMRAAMs launched against PLAAF fighters will achieve a 100% success rate. That was obviously not the case at Balakot when Su-30MKIs were able to dodge the AMRAAMs that were launched against it, via TVC manouvering and electronic jamming. The squadron got a patch called AMRAAM Dodgers after this air duel. Out of all the AMRAAMs (5 to 6 missiles) launched that day, only one AMRAAM hit its mark (the MiG-21 Bison). That is a success rate of anywhere between 16% to 20%. The decades-long reputation that Raytheon built with the AMRAAM, was ruined by the Pakistan Air Force in a matter of minutes.

Now if we switch to guns (so now we are in the realm of WVR combat) then perhaps a more positive outcome can be achieved. But it kind of defeats the whole point of a VLO aircraft if we switch to guns no?

So no, 114-odd F35s etc is not the point - 2-3 sqns, is enough to have presence in East ad West Ladakh theaters/front, and those of *leased* F35/F22 should do the trick - though, I'm not an military strategist etc to talk about numbers, but conceptually it's about "capability presence" that matters.

Today (or in next 10 years), a Chinese commander is rest assured that 5th Gen ingress on DEAD/SEAD missions against our positions, will have very limited counter missions - as, in absence of countering 5th Gen platforms, these will have to be limited to 4-4.5 Gen platforms (for which there are adequate counters available on both sides). This thought process, goes for a toss, in mere presence of 5th Gen platforms on our side, howsoever limited those deployed numbers are.

Will this be enough - certainly not. But that's what minimum credible deterrence (term invented by us) is all about, isn't it?

Minimum credible deterrence WILL NOT deter the Chinese Community Party (CCP). The only effective deterrence is humiliation or annihilation and it is for that precise reason that CCP has yet to make a move on Taiwan. They are attempting to overcome those deficiencies via sheer numbers and advances in technology. They are certainly winning in the former and are playing catch up in the latter.

In Taiwan, the PLAAF is facing a much larger fleet of F-35s (along with other Allied assets) and still the CCP will make a move on Taiwan at their first available opportunity. And Xi won't bad an eyelid over the J-20/J-31 pilots that he will send to their deaths, as long as he and the CCP do not suffer a loss of face. The F-35 is certainly a capable aircraft, but 2 - 3 squadrons will do little to deter the PLAAF's overwhelming number advantage. Only in a nuclear exchange will that doctrine be effective against the CCP. The F-35 will be more of a deterrence on our own defense budget than it will be to the PLAAF. Combined with their very effective PLARF + PLAGF and the IAF will have a challenging time over Tibet.

Of course, one can argue, the day the 5th Gen platforms will be about countering other 5th Gen platforms in Air combat etc, then deployed numbers would become a more prominent factor (but then also, number match-ups will never be the whole-sole deciding factor). And for those days/years/decades, post 2035, we will have our own AMCA - with which we'll be able to play some degree of this numbers-game.

We are not going to play any degree of the numbers game catch up vis à vis the PLAAF. The plan is to induct 2 Mk1 squadrons of AMCA and 5 Mk2 squadrons of AMCA. That is a total of 7 squadrons (126 aircraft). By the time these seven squadrons are all inducted into the IAF (in the 2050s), the PLAAF will be ahead not just in numbers, but also in technology. Good luck!

And, as mentioned many times over, this 5th Gen capability presence can be obtained by any fielding any 5th Gen platform (of admittedly, varying true-blue stealth capability) - but is there any such option currently, barring F35/F22 from US?

The very plane that you advocated for above (i.e. AMCA) will be hamstrung by true blue stealth capability from the US --> F-22/F-35.

You were there when the Single Engine thread was active on BRF. The thread now sits in the BR archive forum. The biggest danger to the SE fighter was the Tejas Mk2. Develop and induct the Tejas Mk2 in the IAF and the phoren SE fighter would be gone. This was the gyan that was given by the Tier 1 industry experts on BRF who advocated for the F-16.

And this is what will happen if we induct the F-35 into the IAF. And the US has a track record of doing this i.e. Avro Arrow in Canada, the IAI Lavi in Israel, etc. At some point, we have to bite the bullet and say no to the latest & greatest phoren thing. And I am glad to see that Air HQ has zero interest in the F-35 and are investing all their energies on the AMCA. The previous air chiefs - while in uniform - have even said this. And their judgement - not yours or mine or anyone else - is the only one that matters. My only hope is that they stick to this plan.

[Added Later] Those advocating SWIFT etc, pls could you enlighten us, what is the realistic timeframe of these being inducted. The full-scale prototype dev hasn't yet happened, and we are talking of combat-deploying them, within next 10 years or so, is it?

Spend money on developing Swift versus buying F-35? Which is the more meaningful lesson to learn?

It is my understanding that DRDO Swift is the precursor to the DRDO Ghatak. The latter will be powered by a non-afterburning Kaveri turbofan, while the former comes with a NPO Saturn 36MT turbofan. And you are far more knowledgeable about turbofans than virtually anyone else on this forum.

The Ghatak is being designed with an internal weapons bay for PGMs, missiles, etc. And that is a very good thing, because it allows our pilots to stay well within Indian airspace and send in Ghatak to conduct the strike. Cheaper than manned combat aircraft and with zero loss of life. If you deny the PLAAF the use of their airfields in Tibet, then it makes their mission planning all the more challenging. Then they will have to start bringing in aircraft from airbases that are much deeper in China and that will involve other complications for them. Their number advantage will also reduce.

Now what the reason for inducting hundreds of Swift is not known to me. But perhaps they see a value in the platform that I have not been able to figure out. But if we can divert funds for phoren aircraft and channel them towards local programs, I am all for it. No to F-35. Yes to Swift.

[konaseema]

It's anybody's guess why what PLA did what it did in Galwan and why it didn't escalate any further in the last 4 years. It dared India to respond and it didn't dare India again when India responded. Why does China do all the postering and drills through PLAAN / PLAAF against Taiwan and not try something similar with its PLAAF against India? I would like to assume that China has figured out that India is NOT a pushover and definitely NOT with the current Military / Political leadership, with the kind of freehand Indian Military ecosystem enjoys. Can PLAAF overwhelm IAF? Hell yes, if they were to deploy their PLAAF jets / bombers in numbers that IAF can't defend. Can It possibly deploy 50% - 60% of its air assets in the existing infrastructure in Tibet? Maybe not. It may still need 4-6 additional airbases to launch such an offensive against India. If IAF weren't successful in increasing its squadron strength to 35 by 2030-32 and have a functional Manned / Unmanned air teaming system, there is every possibility for China to mount an all out attack on India, irrespective of its success / failure to annex Taiwan by then. I make this assumption with the expectation of PLAAF building these additional airbases to accommodate 10-15 additional fighter / bomber squadrons in and around Tibet. The other assumption I have made is that China by now has understood that Pakistan's economy is too weak to mount an offensive from the west and it won't sustain beyond the first 2 weeks of war with India, due to Naval blockade by IN in the Arabian Sea. India did dare China to bring Pakistan into a 2 front war by moving one of its strike corps from the western front to the Northern front and China didn't take a chance, Pakistan neither. So India has another 6-8 years to address the woes of IAF by investing in a JV with Safran for a new 95 / 110 KN engines and pour money into our Kaveri program. In addition to that, IAF / Defense ministry should stop pinching paisa and make HAL invest in infrastructure expansion to manufacture a minimum of 3 squadrons (of fighter aircrafts) every year.

[chetak]

It's anybody's guess why what PLA did....

konaseema-ji,

the cheen always play the long game

look at how long (literacy decades) the cheen took to make their move on gwadar

the pakis like all jihadis are not only duplicitous but also perfidious and they always ensure a net cash/material flow that favors them

taqiyya allows them to be obsequious while they bide their time and wait for the moment to strike or even seize an inflexion point in the relations or the circumstances and they have openly used this technique on the amrikis time and again

the cheeni approach was based on the misjudged efficacy and potency of the fear factor that the cheen thought they had imposed on the pakis by virtue of their reputation as a much feared global force that they had naturally, culturally, militarily, financially, and geopolitically ordained on the pakis by their sheer gigantic presence and proximity

the cheen have never completely understood the complexity of the tribal jihadis and thus they failed to adequately de risk their CPEC projects in pukestan. The result was that they were sandbagged and defanged by a bunch of baloch tribesmen whom even the pakis fear. With the pakis, the cheen have lost their all important "face", just like they lost face in galwan and doklam while dealing with the IA

Given time the cheen may, just may overwhelm the Indian Army, but not before they gotten themselves a very bloody nose and suffered global humiliation in the process. They also know they are hated in India and they will never be able to deal with India in the way that they usually deal with their client states.

India's subsequent sharp retaliation on the economic front caught them flatfooted and left them unsure of their options against India and all this happened in full public glare of an international audience

In their mind India transformed from subverted supplicant post 1962 to the implacable adversary of today and the cheen have become gun shy in dealing with India not only on the kinetic front, but also on the economic, and geopolitical fronts

But like I said, the cheen always play the long game, and they will wait for the govt to change (India has a great many mir jaffers) before they make their move, no matter what the time taken but matters have gotten quite complicated for them because India has also changed and is no more the shrinking violet they had once imagined her to be.

[maitya]

My reply to your post rests on the premise that the Indian Govt will force the IAF to shut down the S-400 platform and also stop development on Project Kusha as well because we are getting the F-35. How many more local programs will we have to shut down to get true-blue stealth capability from the US? After wasting billions on F-35, then we can waste billions more on THAAD as well...along with a host of other US weaponry. Where does it stop?
...

Shutting down an existing inducted platform (S-400 etc) or diverting funds (and thus starving) from an indigenous programs (project Kusha etc), is a sure-shot syndrome of sell-out and that of an aspiring banana nation.
For some reason, I refuse to believe (as if it matters to anybody anyway) we haven't yet reached that kind of sorry state yet - and most probably won't in the future as well.

Of course, the flip side is:
There are a plethora of examples of indigenous programs being shut-down, or funding withdrawn or token production numbers being placed, in favor of videshi shiny toys - and not to mention the fixing-a-made-in-India-sticker type programs (in lieu of well tested and accepted indigenous platforms) as well.
And all of these are happening without any overt demand from a foreign Govt as well.
So I will have to agree, that despite what my beliefs are, there's a real danger of such a sell-out happening.

But still it doesn't answer the point/risk that I'm asking - what is the effective mitigation of the staring 5th-Gen-nood status for next 10 years (2025-35).

I'll come back with replies to rest of the post(s), slightly later (b/w issues galore) ...

[konaseema]

konaseema-ji...

I don't disagree. It is also true for India that we will take few decades to reach our targets, in every aspect of life, including defense. Even though it seems so natural, logical and the best decision to make, we don't have that experience with the Narendra Modi Government in many defense related cases, to make those obvious choices at the very first opportunity. My intention is not to cut any slack to this Government or be defensive on their decisions. Have they missed the bus in many areas, the unbiased answer would be yes. But the question is, did we avert a potential localized war with China? To me we have averted and bought ourselves few years to fix the gaps we have in our defense infrastructure. As long as we are heading in the right direction and haven't regressed, then I am good with that. On your reference to Mir Jaffer's, all I would say is "Batonge to Katonge" and that we should all strengthen the hand that is serving our country well.

[chetak]

I don't disagree.....

konaseema ji,

we can all have our opinions but it's only the wearer who knows whare the shoe pinches.

The concerned experts and the professionals are mostly in the govt and they have to allocate resources optimally and balance threat perceptions with national socio economic objectives and strike a happy balance

the few concerned people outside the govt, at best, have only a partial picture and never the birds eye view and their priorities may not always be aligned with the ground realities of resource generation, availability, unbiased distribution and optimization due to limited insights into the actual threat perception, geo economics, and geopolitics based on real time judgment that comes from the feed back generated by a multiplicity of specialized sources that are not usually accessible to those in the public domain.

There are a lot of politics that is in play, especially in the higher echelons of the power structure and this has always been so from times immemorial. There is every effort at empire building to ensure primacy of a specific formation in the hierarchy and this became glaringly public in the discussions preceding the establishment of the office of the CDS as also the desirability and military efficacy of integrated theatre commands. The world over, such enlightened organization of large and unwieldy military structures was and is already in existence while in India some vested interest groups repeatedly tried to reinvent the wheel

No need now to recall how these inter and intra service fissures were deliberately deepened by the non military one exam wonder departmental heads in the defence ecosystem, who kept the flames of dissensions burning bright by highly selective support to one specific arm of the forces because their saw their own high perches in the hierarchy was threatened

Our defence initiatives and long term military goals cannot be over run and hijacked by such motivated and fissiparous interest groups whose motivation is "self interest" that manifests in every sense of the phrase

Note how the fluid geopolitical situation is currently precipitating newer and fast emerging threat perceptions and how the focus is now shifting decisively to strengthening maritime resources. Hence the renewed interest in underwater assets and long range sub surface launched weapon systems and the visible investment in such platforms.

we have come a long way since the days where one geopolitically ignorant, and colonially subverted ignoramus went so far as to say that:

No surprise then that when the first Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army, General Sir Rob Lockhart, went to Nehru with a formal defence paper that needed a policy directive from the prime minister, Nehru had exclaimed: ‘Rubbish! Total rubbish! We don’t need a defence policy. Our policy is ahimsa (non-violence). We foresee no military threats. As far as I am concerned you can scrap the army—the police are good enough to meet our security needs.’ It’s a different matter that Nehru had to eat his words by the end of October 1947 itself when the tribal hordes invaded Kashmir.

from such tiny acorns do mighty oak trees grow but this idiotic policy continued from 1947 to 1962 and beyond causing an irreparable setback to India's NATSEC concerns. It has taken many decades for India to overcome and begin to correct such shortsighted policy (pun intended) pundits, but also to jettison them and their antinational agendas

[Rakesh]

I'll come back with replies to rest of the post(s), slightly later (b/w issues galore) ...

I have moved the discussion to this thread. I will reply to this particular post of yours soon. I too am in between issues

[Rakesh]

Shutting down an existing inducted platform (S-400 etc) or diverting funds (and thus starving) from an indigenous programs (project Kusha etc), is a sure-shot syndrome of sell-out and that of an aspiring banana nation. For some reason, I refuse to believe (as if it matters to anybody anyway) we haven't yet reached that kind of sorry state yet - and most probably won't in the future as well.

Of course, the flip side is: There are a plethora of examples of indigenous programs being shut-down, or fuIn nding withdrawn or token production numbers being placed, in favor of videshi shiny toys - and not to mention the fixing-a-made-in-India-sticker type programs (in lieu of well tested and accepted indigenous platforms) as well.

And all of these are happening without any overt demand from a foreign Govt as well. So I will have to agree, that despite what my beliefs are, there's a real danger of such a sell-out happening.

Maitya-ji, the points you have raised above are valid. But they are "our" issues/problems and we have to deal with them. And we will either fail or succeed in this venture. Import dalals are plenty in India - in the Govt, in the Bureaucracy and even in the Services.

It would be helpful however to not add yet another complexity into this mess. And that is what the F-35 will bring and it is a genuine concern. Barring the NGAD program, the F-35 represents the cutting edge in fighter aircraft technology. Exposing the F-35 to foreign platforms is not an idea that is palatable to the US. Endanger this fancy Cornish hen and it threatens not just the F-35s in US military service, but the approximately 20 partner nations that also operate the same aircraft. This is not something the US will ever agree to.

To avoid this pitfall, the US enforces stringent monitoring of the aircraft that are in service with foreign air forces. As mentioned earlier, only Israel has "some" leeway with the F-35 considering her unique geopolitical situation. The link I posted earlier gives a very good insight into how curtailed the UK is with her F-35Bs that serve with the Royal Navy. And UK is a Level 1 Partner Nation in the F-35 program. In India, this monitoring will be really pronounced due to the plethora of Russian equipment that our services operate and India will just be another export nation for the F-35.

In the quest for true blue stealth capability for India, the US will demand the moon from India (in exchange for operating the F-35) and we will have to GUBO (Grease Up & Bend Over). In addition, all weaponry for the F-35 will be boutique i.e. bought from the US and not a single existing weapon in service (Indian or foreign) will be allowed on-board. US military personnel will be stationed on Indian airbases to ensure no unauthorized access to the aircraft i.e. so Indian citizens (air force personnel) will be unable move freely on their own sovereign soil. Flight plans, mission data files, etc will not only be shared with the US, but will even be generated by the US. Future sensitive military development programs will always require the following question to be answered --- will this endanger the F-35? --- and will require clearance from the US before proceeding ahead.

Of all the US kit that India has acquired to date, none of them (including the incoming MQ-9B drones) face this level of scrutiny and control...that the F-35 will bring. But if we still want to do this, go right ahead...but then we need to *STOP* complaining about videshi shiny toys, eliminating funding for local programs, token production numbers, etc. If we want the F-35, then we cannot do rona-dhona when local programs are shut down. Because we cannot have it both ways ---> true blue stealth capability is an ABSOLUTE must...but shame on the stakeholders for not living up to Atmanirbhar Bharat.

The F-35 is not just another vanilla import platform. We can't have our cake and eat it too, as the proverbial saying goes. We have to sacrifice one for the other, because we are not having both. Either wholeheartedly embrace importing or self reliance. Choice is Ours.

But still it doesn't answer the point/risk that I'm asking - what is the effective mitigation of the staring 5th-Gen-nood status for next 10 years (2025-35).

I mentioned this in the IAF thread, but will say it again ---> We have paddled so far up shit's creek, that a measurable reversal will take minimum a decade.

There is no available silver bullet that India can acquire in a magical time frame, that can effectively tackle the sheer numbers that China has. We are not even doing the bare minimum (i.e. where is the order for 97 Mk1As????) and we want F-35!

[Manish_P]

....We are not even doing the bare minimum (i.e. where is the order for 97 Mk1As????) and we want F-35!

Admiral sir, the demand for the F-35 will be now pushed harder by the import lobby who will point to the '100 percent' successful Israeli attack on Eyeran a few days back.

[Rakesh]

There is not a soul in China - including Xi himself - that truly believes that the J-20 can triumph over the F-22/F-35 in head-to-head combat. They will obviously state otherwise for propaganda purposes, but they know that the F-22/F-35 will prevail. Their solution is to then overwhelm the technological superiority via numbers. Their strategy rests on that premise. It is for this very reason that the PLAAF is expecting to induct a fleet of over a 1,000 J-20s by the next decade. If the J-20 was as good as their own propaganda states, they will obviously not need this large quantity of J-20s that they are planning to induct. The J-31 fleet strength will be even higher, as it will be a cheaper alternative to the J-20. Then there is a whole slew of J-10s, J-11s, J-16s, Su-30MKK/MK2s and the soon-to-arrive clone of the Su-35S that will also have to be dealt with.

What will you do when you run out of air-to-air missiles in attempting to shoot down all these aircraft? And that is assuming that all AMRAAMs launched against PLAAF fighters will achieve a 100% success rate. That was obviously not the case at Balakot when Su-30MKIs were able to dodge the AMRAAMs that were launched against it, via TVC manouvering and electronic jamming. The squadron got a patch called AMRAAM Dodgers after this air duel. Out of all the AMRAAMs (5 to 6 missiles) launched that day, only one AMRAAM hit its mark (the MiG-21 Bison). That is a success rate of anywhere between 16% to 20%. The decades-long reputation that Raytheon built with the AMRAAM, was ruined by the Pakistan Air Force in a matter of minutes.

'In Post Galwan Face Off With China, Rafale Fighter Was...': Former Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/chin ... -110254508
20 May 2024

He mentioned that when the Rafale arrived and the first one was deployed, the Chinese responded by deploying four J-20 stealth fighters.

Furthermore, he noted that when the Indian Air Force (IAF) had four Rafales in place, the Chinese had 20 J-20s, indicating that "the Chinese knew what we could do."

See the above ratio. How many Meteor and MICA missiles are in service? Redundant question onlee

How many J-20s will be deployed by the PLAAF if the IAF inducts the Fancy Cornish Hen? How many J-20s will the IAF shoot down, before we run out of AMRAAMs? What will we do then? Are we really going to rely on Amreeka to give us more AMRAAMs when we are in a pinch? REALLY?

[Rakesh]

The Ghatak is being designed with an internal weapons bay for PGMs, missiles, etc. And that is a very good thing, because it allows our pilots to stay well within Indian airspace and send in Ghatak to conduct the strike. Cheaper than manned combat aircraft and with zero loss of life. If you deny the PLAAF the use of their airfields in Tibet, then it makes their mission planning all the more challenging. Then they will have to start bringing in aircraft from airbases that are much deeper in China and that will involve other complications for them. Their number advantage will also reduce.

Chinese airfields listed below (mostly marked in red/black, but some in blue). Destroy these airfields. For that you need an effective and LARGE rocket force, which we do not have. We need massive amounts of stand-off PGMs and I am sorry...but the "boutique" SCALP is not going to cut it. The inventory is too little to be effective. China's PLARF inventory is so huge and this is what they will do to our airfields.

But hey, forget investing in the above within the country and lets waste billions more on acquiring 2 - 3 squadrons of F-35, because that will make the Chinese piddle in their pants due to the True Blue Stealth Capability that the F-35 brings!!!

From one fancy toy (Rafale), jump to the next fancy toy (F-35). And then Rinse & Repeat (Su-57, Kaan, KF-21, NGAD, Su-75). Buy 2 - 3 squadrons of everything i.e. Qatar redux. But never *EVER* invest in your own country's MIC. Waste precious CAPEX on acquiring phoren platforms in miniscule amounts, because therein lies true deterrence. Amazing Logic!

Image Source: https://x.com/shiv_cybersurg/status/1850386614859780516 ---> An example of why many extra airfields and landing grounds are useful.

[Rakesh]

My reply to your post rests on the premise that the Indian Govt will force the IAF to shut down the S-400 platform and also stop development on Project Kusha as well because we are getting the F-35. How many more local programs will we have to shut down to get true-blue stealth capability from the US? After wasting billions on F-35, then we can waste billions more on THAAD as well...along with a host of other US weaponry. Where does it stop?

Aur Karo F-35 nautanki....

Talks on S-400 seen nearing a compromise
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/f ... ompromise/
22 Sept 2024

During the summer, the United States submitted a detailed proposal for the resolution of the issue regarding Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air-defense system, which would formally allow the country to keep the missiles on its territory but essentially transfer their control to the United States, according to exclusive information obtained by Kathimerini.

[Rakesh]

....We are not even doing the bare minimum (i.e. where is the order for 97 Mk1As????) and we want F-35!

Admiral sir, the demand for the F-35 will be now pushed harder by the import lobby who will point to the '100 percent' successful Israeli attack on Eyeran a few days back.

Good luck to them! I wish them all the best in their venture. I hope they succeed as well.

Shut down all our local programs. Import everything. We SDREs are like this onlee.

[Manish_P]

.....

Talks on S-400 seen nearing a compromise
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/f ... ompromise/
22 Sept 2024

During the summer, the United States submitted a detailed proposal for the resolution of the issue regarding Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air-defense system, which would formally allow the country to keep the missiles on its territory but essentially transfer their control to the United States, according to exclusive information obtained by Kathimerini.

Brilliant if true and accurate. Bade Khan Sahab gets Chotte Khan Sahab to sucker the Russian Tsar.

[Manish_P]

...
Shut down all our local programs. Import everything. We SDREs are like this onlee.

Don't be so despondent, Rakesh ji. We shall ensure that at least the squadron patches on the uniforms will be 'Made in India'.

The uniforms themselves we might import from Bangladesh. Apparently their textile industry is going through a crisis for some reason... and bailing them out is our duty.

[Kartik]

Finally hearing something at least a little bit positive on the MRFA front, with the Govt sources indicating that there will be some movement on the MRFA RFP.

"The Govt understands the IAF's frustration due to paucity of squadrons and will soon take a considered decision on it."

But they are clear that it will be a multi vendor tender like MRCA and not a straight Govt to Govt contract as some hoped, to reduce the time that will go in trials and L1/L2 identification, followed by negotiations.

Coming from Ajit Dubey, this is the most believable bit of news on MRFA.

Centre hints at issuing an open tender for IAF's mega 114 fighter jets deal

[Rakesh]

At a multi-vendor tender, it will not the see the light of day.

[Manish_P]

....
"The Govt understands the IAF's frustration due to paucity of squadrons and will soon take a considered decision on it."

Classic Yes, Minister

But they are clear that it will be a multi vendor tender like MRCA and not a straight Govt to Govt contract as some hoped, to reduce the time that will go in trials and L1/L2 identification, followed by negotiations.
....

So 2047 or thereabouts, at the earliest. If, it does happen...

At that time it will be the turn of Re Ga to scream 'Adani Ambani'

[Rakesh]

^^^ This will end up as a 5th generation fighter contest.

[Rakesh]

The sheer level of incompetence from everyone is beyond pathetic. Multiple rounds of discussions

Govt backs IAF plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft but faces 2 problems. What’s the logjam?
https://theprint.in/defence/govt-backs- ... m/2333510/
29 Oct 2024

They said, "Work was ongoing in the MRFA project and multiple rounds of discussions have taken place to finalise the contours of the path to be taken.” Sources further said there were two main issues the government, civil servants and IAF officers were trying to find a solution to. “We are trying to find a solution to breaking the logjam,” a source said.

“The issue is what route (is) to be taken? Do we go for a repeat of G2G for more Rafale? If yes, under what rule and how many? Or do we have an open tender, which means full-fledged trials have to take place, but this is going to be a long-drawn process,” said a source.

“If we give an order to Dassault for more Rafale today, they will only be able to deliver much later since their production capacity is down and they have pending orders. So the aircraft has to be built in India like in the case of the C-295,” the sources said.

[Manish_P]

The sheer level of incompetence from everyone is beyond pathetic. Multiple rounds of discussions

Govt backs IAF plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft but faces 2 problems. What’s the logjam?
https://theprint.in/defence/govt-backs- ... m/2333510/
29 Oct 2024

“If we give an order to Dassault for more Rafale today, they will only be able to deliver much later since their production capacity is down and they have pending orders. So the aircraft has to be built in India like in the case of the C-295,” the sources said.

Su-57MKI incoming

PM Modi has met Shri Putin many times recently

[Rakesh]

Su-57MKI incoming

PM Modi has met Shri Putin many times recently

Repeat of the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisition of the 1980s. We will never learn.

[Manish_P]

...
Repeat of the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 acquisition of the 1980s. We will never learn.

We love to follow traditions

It is Dhanteras today... an auspicious day.

Some other day it might be 'Dhan to Roos' day

[Cybaru]

Kinda sad - 10 years and no movement.

Order 60 More MKI and build to new SuperSukhoi standard.. That nose is something. It is okay if it is expensive. It is faster in long run.
Pickup used Mirages from Qatar and Greece - 32
Order 57 raffies and let them come at the rate of 5-6 till order is done, starting 3-4 years from now. Can't do much anymore. it comes when it comes.
Stabilize LCA and ensure GE engines arrive on time for next tranche. Order next tranche for Mk2 and AMCA much earlier.
Invest in your own damn engine 100KN and 120KN engines so this crap doesn't happen again..

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/livefist/status/1851563268298653852 ---> Here we go again. Drop your views below.

https://x.com/Tej_Intel/status/1851612761240863210 ---> It's Dassault Rafale. It was always Rafale. The order book of Dassault will not have a significant impact on MRFA. Dassault's upcoming MRO facility at Noida, buying the Reliance's stake in the JV, etc - everything is carefully planned.

[Cybaru]

The only this may be pointing to is that the price is too high and they maybe arm twisting us, which is forcing us to go back to the choosing circus board. It's theirs to lose.

[Kartik]

Kinda sad - 10 years and no movement.

Order 60 More MKI and build to new SuperSukhoi standard.. That nose is something. It is okay if it is expensive. It is faster in long run.
Pickup used Mirages from Qatar and Greece - 32
Order 57 raffies and let them come at the rate of 5-6 till order is done, starting 3-4 years from now. Can't do much anymore. it comes when it comes.
Stabilize LCA and ensure GE engines arrive on time for next tranche. Order next tranche for Mk2 and AMCA much earlier.
Invest in your own damn engine 100KN and 120KN engines so this crap doesn't happen again..

HAL had the capacity to build 12-15 Su-30MKIs per year, not more. Now that Su-30MKI production stopped, some of the assembly line space was taken up for setting the Tejas assembly line.

Now comes the kicker- even if you order 60 Su-30MKIs to be built to the Super Sukhoi standard, the earliest they can be rolled out is 6 years from now. This is why:

- 12 Su-30MKIs as attrition replacements are in contract negotiations phase. Those will be delivered 36 months after contract is signed with HAL.
- The design and development phase for the Super Sukhoi is 5 years. That means that for at least 5 years there is no Su-30MKI that is to be upgraded since the upgrade itself isn't fully ready.

The bigger issue of getting no new technology and increasing our dependence on Russia even as we're avowedly moving in the opposite direction will be there. I'm also fairly certain that any new combat aircraft orders that require supplies from Russia will invite punitive sanctions from the US.

[maitya]

The only this may be pointing to is that the price is too high and they maybe arm twisting us, which is forcing us to go back to the choosing circus board. It's theirs to lose.

As usual the thread moved too fast (and Rakeshji in particular), for a sloooooooooow mover like moi, to participate meaningfully in the to-and-fro (wrt 5thGen-nood status until 2035 etc).
Anyway, no point in going back to it, a better (and juicier) topic (aka the MRCA tamasha) has resurfaced again.

Well up until now, I used to be quite certain wrt Rafale winning this, albeit for a reduced vol/numbers (say around 57 + 26M) - and it was certainly theirs to loose. And moreover, that'd been the best compromise for all sides:
For us, wrt bypassing the orderbook-backlog-related-delays and the ultra-high budgetary support etc issues.
For the OEM, decent enough order size to justify setting up a parallel assembly line (with some ToAsT type lollipop thrown in, for the MoD baboons and the IAF/ex-IAF BWT crowd), which can then also help the OEM service its existing huge order-book backlog itself (in parallel).
(say, 10 IAF + 6 other-orders, per year, decade-long, production-run)

And ofcourse, my super-secret wet dream itself: Who knows maybe after these 83 are delivered (say 16/year, for 7 years, assuming dedicated India-only prod facility), this line can be repurposed (by Dassault), for 40-odd Mk2 mfg (in parallel to HAL delivery, of say 80-odd MK2s) as well.

But, now with this competition being thrown wide open and with F-21 and Gripen-E type single-engined contenders, back in the contention, things can become quite interesting pretty quickly - mostly on the pricing front.
From pricing pov, I think, Rafale can comfortably take on platforms like F-15SE or Eurofighter (even F-18E/Fs) - but these 2 single-engined contenders can make the price-war very very difficult for Dassault. And having disclosed the pricing (M variant), Dassault wouldn't have much room to maneuver as well.
Both F21/Gripen-E/F, have the wherewithal to go ultra-aggressive on the pricing - and also quite readily agree to whatever ToAsT type scredrivergiri lollipop that the MoD baboons would be looking out for.
Not so much with the F15SE/Eurofighter etc though.

So the only Ace that Dassault would be holding now, is to include the 120KN engine joint-dev as a part of the "offset payback" (atleast partially) of this deal. But then again, so can Eurofighter (via Rolls Royce JV etc).
Another option for Dassault to be to go ultra-aggressive on the Radar-Avionics-EW-MC-Display front wrt incorporating desi components in place of the French systems - currently there's enough capability within the country to match-up to such an ask.
But for that, Dassault will have to let go their strongly-defended-closely-guarded avionics-integration knowleeedge/capability, and share with us whole-heartedly.
After all, as somebody recently pointed out, 30% of the platform cost is avionics cost, and equivalent desi systems would come at a fraction of that. No more $2-3B ICE-type tamasha, to justify it's obscenely high unit-costs!!

Dark horse of course, is a Su-57 Lic-Mfg type of offering from mother Russia - and if they can throw in Izdeliya-30 ToAsT type of a deal along-with, things would certainly become really interesting. I'm almost sure some genius baboon would be already salivating secretly, wrt such a prospect.
In which case this 114 number can be split (say 57 - 57) between Rafale and Su-57, and we are back to "everybody happy" type of scenario again.
Dassault gets a decent vol (57 + 26) to justify setting up a Mfg line, while Russkies gets a life-line wrt Fifth-Gen Mfg boondoggle that they have landed themselves into.

Wrt Unkil sanctioning etc - hey, they can do so even if Rafale gets selected (over F21/F15SE etc), justification etc can always be found. So, I doubt, that's going to be any deciding factor, anymore etc.

Interesting times ahead ... but one thing is pretty sure - another multi-year tamasha just got initiated.
Maybe time to initiate a new thread ...

[Rakesh]

Maitya-ji, great post as always. Just some points to add;

The price will indeed be hard to justify for Dassault versus the F-21 and Gripen E. Knowing this, Dassault will pitch the Rafale's technological superiority over these two. Get ready for the Rafale F5 variant to come out from Dassault's stables to compete in the MRFA contest. The French MoD has announced that the first F5 is expected to arrive in 2030 ---> https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/ ... ndustriels

And since we are back again in this tamasha, the Gripen-E and F-21 (along with others) will get eliminated in the technical contest. Rafale will end up in the technical downselect, along with the F-15EX and *PERHAPS* the Typhoon. As with MMRCA 1.0, this will be prior to the selection of L1. And here is where the Rafale will win.

And the dark horse - as you rightly pointed out - is the Su-57. With BRICS moving full steam ahead, Putin will want his pound of flesh.

[Rakesh]

The bigger issue of getting no new technology and increasing our dependence on Russia even as we're avowedly moving in the opposite direction will be there. I'm also fairly certain that any new combat aircraft orders that require supplies from Russia will invite punitive sanctions from the US.

We are entrenched enough with the US, that placing punitive sanctions will cause harm to Indo-US relations. And unless the US wants to stop the flow of arms to India (first MQ-9B is expected to arrive in the late 2020s), this act would be counterproductive.

The big daddy of Russian military equipment to India is coming in 2028. This will be bigger than even the S-400 and will give US Senators much consternation. The last two S-400 regiments are also due to arrive before 2028. Place sanctions and then watch the game unfold.

P.S. The sanctions on Russia are a joke. Russia is anything but isolated. The entire world is seeing how crippling the West's (ie. the US) sanctions on Russia really are.

[drnayar]

We are entrenched enough with the US, that placing punitive sanctions will cause harm to Indo-US relations. And unless the US wants to stop the flow of arms to India (first MQ-9B is expected to arrive in the late 2020s), this act would be counterproductive.

The big daddy of Russian military equipment to India is coming in 2028. This will be bigger than even the S-400 and will give US Senators much consternation. The last two S-400 regiments are also due to arrive before 2028. Place sanctions and then watch the game unfold.

P.S. The sanctions on Russia are a joke. Russia is anything but isolated. The entire world is seeing how crippling the West's (ie. the US) sanctions on Russia really are.

Akula SSN?

[Manish_P]

...
And the dark horse - as you rightly pointed out - is the Su-57. With BRICS moving full steam ahead, Putin will want his pound of flesh.

IMVHO the Su-57 MKI is coming. Some Su-30s will also be a bit long in the tooth (airframe life wise) by then and we will buy at least a couple of squadrons of Felons.

Hell I think we will even buy the shatranj ka khiladi Su-75 if it is in production and we don't have our turbofan ready.

Don't want to be at the mercy of the West for about half our fleet.

[Rakesh]

Akula SSN?

Indeed Dr Saab ---> viewtopic.php?p=2632319#p2632319

[Rakesh]

IMVHO the Su-57 MKI is coming. Some Su-30s will also be a bit long in the tooth (airframe life wise) by then and we will buy at least a couple of squadrons of Felons.

Hell I think we will even buy the shatranj ka khiladi Su-75 if it is in production and we don't have our turbofan ready.

Don't want to be at the mercy of the West for about half our fleet.

Air HQ feels the same way.

There is no game changer (technology wise) on the F-21, F-15EX or the F-18SH vis à vis the Rafale.

Post the Super Sukhoi upgrade, the Su-30MKI will be on par with the F-15EX.

[Manish_P]

The worry I have is that Putin is unlikely to be around in another decade / decade and half. If his successor is not capable enough to stand against the West then we will be in even more trouble.

We must have our own engine in 10-15 years. The clock is ticking.

[Rakesh]

Enjoy some humour.

https://x.com/mujifren/status/1851281524714610915 ---> The year is 2040. Indian PM inks emergency government to government deal on his visit to Paris for 36 Rafale F8 Jets, after the Mega 114 Fighter Jet deal went nowhere after 15 years of negotiations. The Indian Air Force will bank on the Tejas MK2 which made its maiden test flight 3 months ago. The squadron strength of the IAF has come down to four squadrons of Rafale and Pushpak trainers, which some experts believe is not enough to contain hostile China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, all of whom field 5th Gen J-20 and J-31 fighters. Veteran parliamentarian Shri Pappu Yadav, now 83, asked the defence minister in Lok Sabha "AMCA ka kya hua ji, tai tai phuss hogaya."

[Rakesh]

Seeing how we are still stuck with MMRCA/MRFA/MRCA for the past 25+ years, we could see the above ^^^ being true.

The Single Engine fighter contest was shut down by Feb 2018 and was replaced by the MRFA contest. What has the Govt and Air HQ been doing since then? It took them nearly 7 years to figure out the below? WOW!

Govt backs IAF plan to procure 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft but faces 2 problems. What’s the logjam?
https://theprint.in/defence/govt-backs- ... m/2333510/
29 Oct 2024

They said, "Work was ongoing in the MRFA project and multiple rounds of discussions have taken place to finalise the contours of the path to be taken.” Sources further said there were two main issues the government, civil servants and IAF officers were trying to find a solution to. “We are trying to find a solution to breaking the logjam,” a source said.

“The issue is what route (is) to be taken? Do we go for a repeat of G2G for more Rafale? If yes, under what rule and how many? Or do we have an open tender, which means full-fledged trials have to take place, but this is going to be a long-drawn process,” said a source.

[maitya]

...
Get ready for the Rafale F5 variant to come out from Dassault's stables to compete in the MRFA contest. The French MoD has announced that the first F5 is expected to arrive in 2030 ---> https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/ ... ndustriels
...

Well, if F5 variant is offered, then Dassault will also have to include the stealth-UCAV (unnamed) platform along-with as well.
As except for the MUMT capability, the avionics etc of the F5, can/will be matched by the F15EX/Eurofighter and maybe even the F21/Gripen-E.
And that'd mean serious price-escalation (as it will have to include unit-price of the Stealth UCAV as well), over an already high-priced platform - which can make it an automatic reject category purely from the pricing pov.

Had it been a straight G2G kind of deal, Dassault could have packaged it as a "joint-dev-jointly-funded" kind of an option, which can then somehow justify the high prices etc - however in a open contest, they can't do so, and unit-price (incl the UCAV unit-price + R&D cost etc) will be a deal-breaker.

Trouble is this is such a hodge-podge of a contest - I mean we have 35Ton MTOW platforms (Heavy category) competing alongside 25Ton (Medium) platforms. Not sure how IAF/MoD would evaluate such a diverse band of offering to shortlist etc.
And if Unkil or Russkies decides to bring in their stealth-platforms (in the 35Ton category), then spectrum becomes even more wider and complex.

Rightly said - this is a true-blue tamasha.