Iran-Israel Conflict: News & Discussions: 14 April 2024

[sanman]

[Deans]

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/08/ga ... other.html

My blogpost update on the Gaza/Hezbollah war.
I had made some predictions on it back in early June and so far they have been accurate.

[ernest]

Great post as always, Deans. Please keep them coming

[srai]

War escalating…

Iran struck twice (after KIA of Hamas & Hezbulla leadership) - 400+ missiles and drones


Now Israel strikes back - 140 aircraft involved

[Manish_P]

So many aircraft. The Israelis seem very confident about their chances against Iranian anti-air defenses.

[williams]

So many aircraft. The Israelis seem very confident about their chances against Iranian anti-air defenses.

Yes the message is we can hit you whenever and wherever we want but you can't do the same. For all the international pressure it looks like the Israelis have gamed this and executing their objectives with precision. I also think rumor aside Iran is nuke-nude and thats going to hurt Biden-Kerry coalition who wants to pay Iran to be nuke-nude

[drnayar]

uh. west asking iran not to retaliate ?!! .. oh the sheer hypocrisy

[drnayar]

The Israelis are NOT deliberately intercepting all the Iranian missiles, only this worth targeting. either Iranian missiles are not accurate or Israelis are using sophisticated software to prioritize targets

[uddu]

[Manish_P]

Reports indicate wide area neutralization of air defence in Syria and Iraq. The systems were already weakened a lot during to the earlier wars in Syria and Iraq.

[drnayar]

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ ... d-response

Are both[the politicians]avoiding a direct escalation and using proxies as cannon fodder.. i say leadership on both sides are guilty of same.

[IndraD]

https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1850250577252397480
claims that Israel released weapons from Kurdistan and never entered Iran

[Aditya_V]

Seems logical, Israel did not waste costly Ballistic missiles, it used shorter ranged ones from Iraq and Syrian airspace, so that Iran cannot capture the Pilots incase of a flame out or shootdown . There are enough US assets in Syria, Iraq to help with rescues

[Manish_P]

Seems logical, Israel did not waste costly Ballistic missiles, it used shorter ranged ones from Iraq and Syrian airspace, so that Iran cannot capture the Pilots incase of a flame out or shootdown . There are enough US assets in Syria, Iraq to help with rescues

A ballistic missile would not be that much more costly than a F-35 plus Pilot

[Aditya_V]

Fuel + SRBM will be cheaper than using IRBMs in numbers

[sanman]

I've been hearing the opposite. Israelis were promising a big strike and sent over 100 aircraft to participate. Their plan was that first wave would take out air defense, and next waves would hit the actual value targets. But Russian air defense upgrades proved more difficult than anticipated, so their strikes were much more limited than what they'd hoped for. Consequently, Israelis are now walking back their previous rhetoric and calling it a limited strike. But why send over 100 aircraft on what you're now calling a 'limited strike'? Clearly their climbdown is because events did not go as planned.

[Vayutuvan]

@sanman ji, either that or they wanted to probe. It is a feint so that they can judge how good the air defense upgrades are. Also Iran expended some of their stock. Now the real attack will come, possibly.

[Baikul]

I side with the view that Iranian air defence was stronger than the Israelis anticipated, and they scaled back their plans, their execution, or both.

Unless we’re missing something, this hardly feels like the promised or anticipated response by Israel to Iran’s mass missile attack if a few days ago.

[uddu]

There are two aspects to it
1) Some of the ballistic missiles did hit targets in Israel and they waited for the U.S to deploy THAAD to give them better protection before going ahead with the strike.
2) There is tremendous pressure on Israel especially from U.S Govt not to escalate the situation beyond a point and probably THAAD is a quid pro arrangement to accede to that. The non-strike on oil facility is such an agreement.

Iranian Air defense said to have performed better than anticipated by the Israeli's. This also demonstrated Israel's ability to reach Iran without ballistic or cruise missile strikes. Its also concerning for Iran that Israel could reach them with aircrafts, that too through multiple countries which are friendly to Iran.

The day Trump takes over, it will be game over for Iran.
Tightening of Oil Sanctions on Iran to complete freedom to Israel with all kinds of weaponry and support will be given.

[srai]

^^^
AFAIK, typical MAGA support Russia in the Ukrainian conflict but they don’t support Israel against the Palestinians.

Even in Trump 1st term, the US assassinated an Iranian general in Iraq. When Iran retaliated with SSM against a US airbase in Iraq, there was no counter escalation by the US.

So don’t really see how any US administration is any different under the hood. Too much is attributed to individuals when there is a whole machinery at work

[Deans]

My latest blog post on the Hamas/Hezbollah war.
I have also linked an informative video which is the best summary I could find of the first month's ground operation in Lebanon,

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/is ... ollah.html

[NRao]

[sanman]

Netanyahu Fires Rival Galant

[uddu]

^^^
AFAIK, typical MAGA support Russia in the Ukrainian conflict but they don’t support Israel against the Palestinians.

Even in Trump 1st term, the US assassinated an Iranian general in Iraq. When Iran retaliated with SSM against a US airbase in Iraq, there was no counter escalation by the US.

So don’t really see how any US administration is any different under the hood. Too much is attributed to individuals when there is a whole machinery at work

This is not true. Its an assumption that MAGA crowd are the only one in support of Ukraine war. Its more or less Bipartisan in the U.S and its the Democratic party that's staunchly for the war. The Republicans agree to find a solution to it. If you listen to various Trump campaign, speakers like Tulsi Gabbard etc is specifically stating that they are not for war and it was during President Trump times that the U.S did not start a new war. Even Trump himself seen stating that he is the only president who did not start a war. That never means he is going to tolerate Terrorism or bullying of the U.S lightly. There will be repercussions on that front for those who are siding with terrorists.

[Deans]

Part 8 of my blog series on Israel's wars.

I have included links to 2 interesting articles. The first by an officer at the US military academy on Hamas's tunnel's and how the
Israelis fought that. The second is an account of the fighting from a journo at the Jerusalem post who did two rounds of fighting in Gaza as a reserve infantryman. Quite a balanced account and he's sometimes scathing of the Israeli leadership.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/12/is ... eyond.html