Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[sanman]

Are North Korean Troops Going to Participate in Russia-Ukraine War?
Or is this just Western propaganda to get South Korea to send money/weapons to Ukraine?

[Deans]

Please read Deans excellent blog on this topic - one of the most researched resource on this topic. Its linked earlier. Russia has exchanged a lot of convict troops for crack Ukranian troops. Of course Russia has lost a lot of regular troops as well… but it can sustain this war in terms of manpower longer than the Ukranians.

Russians overestimated themselves and severely underestimated the opposition in the initial phase. The West thought with their tech advantage and superior training and tactics provided to Ukes, the front will collapse and they will march to Moscow. Both sides have been embarrassed. The war has shown the Western weapons are not infallible and the the Russian war machine is incompetent.

The war is going well for Russians because they have withstood whatever the combined might of Nato can throw at it and are still standing. Not because they are winning…

Thank you for the endorsement Tanaji.
To summarise my view: Russia is fighting a battle of attrition, not a war to capture territory.
Russia is losing less men than Ukraine. Moreover is it losing men at a reducing rate, whereas Ukraine is losing them at an increasing rate. So in the first month, the exchange ratio was in Ukraine's favor. In 2023, it started moving in Russia's favor and in 2024, it's lopsidedly in Russia's favor.

That does not even take into account that Russia's population is now 6 times Ukraine's (pre war 146 vs 41 million, now 152 vs. 25 million).
Ukraine's population reduced due to them migration of 8 million to the west and another 6 million in Russian controlled territory excluding
Crimea.

Russia's weapon production is more than their losses, so they can sustain the war at the current rate indefinitely.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/kiel-report/
This is a 80 page report (which I will summarize in my next blog post), where a leading European think tank acknowledges that Russia is
producing more than it is losing - and a multiple of what the major European countries collectively produce.
Russia has done that and been the fastest growing economy in Europe, despite sanctions that should have crippled them.
This is despite total NATO & Ukraine funding for the war being a lot more than Russia's.

Certainly Russia did not plan for the war and made big mistakes at the beginning (as they did in the first part of the German invasion in WW2).
NATO made similarly bad assumptions about Russia collapsing due to a combination of battlefield defeats and sanctions.

I think the war will be over when Ukraine reaches a tipping point in terms of manpower losses.

[Deans]

I guess it's better to be a conscription officer in Ukraine than face the Russian meat grinder !

They're getting more desperate with their recruitment approach

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1832032930690207944

Holy crap these people are desperate

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... campaigns/

You have to bribe to be a conscription officer (the department is called TCC) as its the most lucrative job in Ukraine today.
There are an increasing number of cases of TCC men being attacked and their cars burnt.

Both sides are recruiting approx 30,000 a month. In Russia's case, its over an above the conscription numbers (250,000 a year) and
all the 30,000 each month are volunteers, many with prior experience.
In Ukraine's case, its mostly forced conscription, after the compulsory recruitment age was lowered and exemptions reduced.
That new manpower pool (forced conscription of inexperienced men) will largely be over in Dec and will equal the number of irreplacible
losses in 2014. Then Ukraine has to further lower the conscription age to 18, or 21. The problem is before the war, those below 18 were allowed
to leave Ukraine. After 3 years, that cohort of 18 y.o's has turned 21. So there are hardly any men in the 18-21 age group available to be recruited (excluding those in University).

The latest Russian recruitment ad is quite slick. It shows people of all religions in Russia - a Muslim, Christian & Buddhist saying a prayer before
going into action, with a famous WW2 song, `we are the army of the people' and a list of all the Russian nationalities fighting the war - evoking the spirit of the Great patriotic war.

The previous ad, was shorty after Ukraine's failed 2023 summer offensive. It shows 2 soldiers pissing against a German Leopard tank (lot of WW2
memories) with one telling the other, `the stink (from a burnt Leopard) is the same as the others', with a call `Let's burn them together' and
a backdrop of `Bradley square' which is the location of a lot of destroyed NATO hardware from that offensive.

[mody]

NoKo soldiers reportedly are closed to be used in the conflict. Some reports suggest about 3,000 soldiers are present. Not sure what purpose are the NoKo troops going to be used. Either they have been sent there to gain some combat experience or maybe Putin asked for some cannon fodder from Kim as a quid pro quo, to up the ante against Ukraine.
If the NoKo troops become regular fixture, then I suspect the numbers could increase to say 50-60K. This would be a very significant development and would tip the balance against Ukraine even further. One would have to wait and see how Nato would respond in such an eventuality.

50-60K NoKo troops entering the conflict would be a significant escalation, one that would take the war one step further towards a multinational conflict and the world one step further towards WW3.

[drnayar]

NoKo soldiers reportedly are closed to be used in the conflict. Some reports suggest about 3,000 soldiers are present. Not sure what purpose are the NoKo troops going to be used. Either they have been sent there to gain some combat experience or maybe Putin asked for some cannon fodder from Kim as a quid pro quo, to up the ante against Ukraine.
If the NoKo troops become regular fixture, then I suspect the numbers could increase to say 50-60K. This would be a very significant development and would tip the balance against Ukraine even further. One would have to wait and see how Nato would respond in such an eventuality.

50-60K NoKo troops entering the conflict would be a significant escalation, one that would take the war one step further towards a multinational conflict and the world one step further towards WW3.

Given the nature of the Ukraine war, i think the NoKo mercenairies would work as separate units for singular objectives., pretty sure they would be all trained for the drone wars.

[srai]

2S22 Bohdana, a Ukrainian 155 mm NATO-caliber self-propelled howitzer
* trials completed Jan 2022
* 10 units monthly production by April 2024
* 20 units monthly production by November 2024

At this rate, Ukraine won’t require second hand 155mm donations in 2-to-3 years.


Ukraine’s monthly production of Bohdana howitzers increased to about 20, Zelenskyy announces

This marks a doubling in Ukraine’s monthly production of the self-propelled howitzers since April, when output first reached ten units.
…
Ukraine has achieved a significant milestone in its defense manufacturing capabilities, now producing up to 20 Bohdana wheeled self-propelled howitzers monthly,
…

Regarding foreign funding for the domestic Bohdana production, Zelenskyy said:

“We call it the Danish model, enabling us to attract funding from our partners directly into Ukrainian defense production. For example, we are now producing almost 20 Bohdana artillery units per month.”

The 2S22 Bohdana, a Ukrainian 155 mm NATO-caliber self-propelled howitzer, completed trials in January 2022 and first engaged in June during the battle for Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, destroying a Russian “Pantsir” missile system and a radar station. It has a firing range of up to 50 km, depending on the type of round used.

Army Recognition highlights that by producing NATO-standard howitzers, Ukraine showcases its ability to build a resilient domestic defense industry, even amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

The Bohdana is a domestically designed and manufactured self-propelled howitzer mounted on a KrAZ-6322 6×6 truck chassis. The system includes advanced features such as a modern targeting and fire control system, ballistic computer, computerized fire control unit, automatic gun-laying system, and navigation module. A crew of five operates the vehicle, which can achieve speeds of up to 80 km/h with a range of 1,000 km.
…

[Tanaji]

No summer, winter, rainy, high altitude, full moon, new moon trials by the Ukranians? Are they stupid? Clearly, they are amateurs without the vision of the glorious DG Artillery of IA…

[ramana]

Ukraine SAM interception rate discussion


https://youtu.be/b6JtJY9OQ28?si=M4oS8v7qBKjBVBIn

[ramana]

No summer, winter, rainy, high altitude, full moon, new moon trials by the Ukranians? Are they stupid? Clearly, they are amateurs without the vision of the glorious DG Artillery of IA…

No need for that.

[Manish_P]

No summer, winter, rainy, high altitude, full moon, new moon trials by the Ukranians? Are they stupid? Clearly, they are amateurs without the vision of the glorious DG Artillery of IA…

It did undergo trials in 2018, 2022 etc. I am not sure what the moon phases at the time were

(I am well aware of the sentiment behind your statement )

[sanman]

Given the nature of the Ukraine war, i think the NoKo mercenairies would work as separate units for singular objectives., pretty sure they would be all trained for the drone wars.

Why would NoKo troops work as mercenaries, instead of as NoKo military on foreign soil? Mercenaries are by definition free agents, which Pyongyang govt would never allow. Likewise, CCP would never allow Chinese mercs. Do you think these govts would ever tolerate a Prighozin situation? I don't think so.

It's still not clear to me that NoKo forces are anywhere near Kursk or Ukraine front. AFAIK, they are still undergoing training in Russia's Far East.

[mody]

Some reports suggest that the first skirmish between UAF and NoKo soldiers has taken place. Mostly arty fire.
NoKo forces have been deployed in the Kursk region. During Putin's visit to NoKo he had signed a kind of mutual defense agreement with NoKo. this allows for NoKo troops to be deployed in Russian soil to repel in invasion. If the NoKo troops can hold the line in Kursk, it would allow greater amount of Russian troops to be used elsewhere.

[Deans]

Part 10 of my blog series on the Ukraine war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/uk ... inter.html

[SRajesh]

Deansji
A question then
Given DJT victory do you anticipate an early Russian advance (prior to January Change of gaurds at US) or will the war of attrition continue
The reason I ask is if (and very big if) DJT is able to convince both Putin and Zelensky to sit across a table and Drink Tea from a Samovar.
And if they agree to hold on the areas they are currently occupying will Russia agree for Kursk loss or this war attrition was their way to give a small piece of land to Zelensky for gains of large tract elsewhere and at the time decimate their army capabilities ?? (which may take a long time to build up in peace time the time and effort needed to rebuild the destroyed town cities elsewhere)

[srai]

Ukraine is probably around 3-years away from “self-sufficiency” in 155mm artillery, both ammunition (~2000/day) and self-propelled howitzer (20+/month).

Ukraine Is Now Able To Produce 155mm Artillery Shells And Howitzers

…
Both countries rely heavily on Soviet doctrine that emphasizes artillery, with Russia firing around 10,000 rounds daily and Ukraine about 2,000.

…

Since the start of the war, Ukraine has invested in developing its own domestic capacity to produce 155mm artillery shells. On September 15, Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin announced that Ukraine has started serial production of 155mm rounds, although exact details of the facility were not disclosed. While the facility is currently only producing limited amounts of ammunition, its capacity is expected to triple by the end of the year. Ukraine also announced earlier this year that they have an agreement with the German company Rheinmetall to develop facilities for producing 155mm ammunition. Once complete, these facilities are expected to produce enough rounds to sustain Ukraine’s current expenditure of 155mm ammunition.

…

Ukraine’s domestically produced 155mm artillery rounds are designed to meet NATO standards, such that they can be fired from the Western-provided howitzers, including the American M109, Polish AHS Krab, and British AS90. Additionally, the Ukrainian facility is reportedly able to produce standard high-explosive rounds and extended-range rounds.

…

Ammunition is useless without a system to fire it from. As such, Ukraine is making efforts to reduce their reliance on Western-provided howitzers as well. Following the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine began a development effort to domestically produce a self-propelled howitzer, the 2S22 Bohdana. The Bohdana is a 155mm system, with a firing range of 40 kilometers with standard rounds and 50 kilometers with extended-range ammunition. Ukraine chose a wheeled chassis for this system, utilizing the domestically produced KrAZ-6322, a 6x6 military truck. This design decision not only reduced reliance on foreign parts, but it also cuts the design time associated with a specialized tracked chassis.

First unveiled in 2018, the Bohdana underwent initial testing in 2021 and saw combat use in 2022. However, its usage has been limited with Oryxspioenkop.com stating that Ukraine has only lost 8 of the systems, compared to 70 M109s, 36 AHS Krabs, and 12 AS-90s. Regardless, they have played a key role in the war and will play an increasingly important role going forward. Production has ramped up, with Ukrainian President Zelensky recently stating that Ukraine is producing a “powerful” number of Bohdanas per month, making it the European leader in howitzer production.

…

[A Deshmukh]

why have Russians not taken out the production capacities (guns and ammo) yet?

[Tanaji]

why have Russians not taken out the production capacities (guns and ammo) yet?

The facilities are all at the rear as you would expect and well hidden, near Poland border. I would not at all be surprised if it wasnt inside Poland either. NATO ISR is surprisingly effective and Russia is not able to launch deep strikes. There is also a shortage of long range, accurate and fast missiles such as Kinzal etc that would be appropriate in this case.

As Russia ramps up the production, we should see more of these.

[srai]

Drone vs Armor … explosive video compilation

[Deans]

https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1858690512728768603

Good documentary with English subs, on a Russian division at the front.
Div HQ operates under a large network of tunnels complete with gym.

Russian TV channels have embedded reporters with different units so you get realistic reporting from the front and people can see what
actual conditions are like. Western journos just repeat whatever the Ukraine MOD tells them - or talk of starving conscripts being sent on
human wave attacks armed with shovels.

[srai]

With Biden nothing to lose has finally allowed the use of long range weapons like ATACMs against Russian territory. Little too late …

[disha]

Biden & team just brought the world to a nuclear WW3.

On Biden's authorization, and breaking the MTCR, Zelensky launched 6 long range missiles into Russia.

This was specifically to provoke Russia. Hopefully they will not respond. But any steps for peaceful negotiations will be remote.

Not sure what Zelensky was thinking!

[sanjaykumar]

What’s the old BAS doomsday clock doing? Or does it only budge if the lesser countries f@rt?

[Garooda]

On Biden's authorization, and breaking the MTCR, Zelensky launched 6 long range missiles into Russia.

I know the words 'Long Range' is being used in the media and everywhere else. However, is the ATACMS variant truely defined or classified as a long range missile ? I'm sure Putin knows that as well. I doubt that he will go nuclear as both India and China would not support that decision as founding members of BRICS.

Ballistic missiles are powered initially by a rocket or series of rockets in stages, but then follow an unpowered trajectory that arches upwards before descending to reach its intended target. Ballistic missiles can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads.

There are four general classifications of ballistic missiles based on their range, or the maximum distance the missile can travel:

- Short-range: less than 1,000 kilometers (approximately 620 miles), also known as “tactical” ballistic missiles.

- Medium-range: between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometers (approximately 620-1,860 miles), also known as “theater” ballistic missiles.

- Intermediate-range: between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometers (approximately 1,860-3,410 miles)

- Long-range: more than 5,500 kilometers (approximately 3,410 miles), also known as intercontinental or strategic ballistic missiles. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) can fly much further than the minimum range; for example, Russia could hit Chicago with an ICBM launched from the Krasnoyarsk ICBM base, which is located 9,156 kilometers (5,689miles) away.

https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-conten ... -Sheet.pdf

[Cyrano]

Reports of a Russian ICBM strike on Dneiper city, seems like conventional cluster/mirv warheads.

[srai]

Russian losses estimated
400,000 - 500,000 irreplaceable losses



Russia Has Suffered Colossal Losses in Ukraine. Is Its Army Depleted?

[Manish_P]

While Ukraine has lost only cats

[sanman]

"Bah, so what if US allows its missiles to be fired at Russia from Ukrainian soil. Russia's redlines don't mean anything. What's Putin going to do?"

Well, f****k around and find out

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 024-11-21/

Russia Fires Intercontinental Ballistic Missile in Attack on Ukraine, Kyiv Says

KYIV, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday, Kyiv's air force said, in what would be the first use in war of a weapon designed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes.
The launch, if confirmed, highlights rapidly rising tensions in the 33-month-old war after Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation.
Security experts said it would be the first military use of an intercontinental ballistic missile. ICBMs are strategic weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads and are an important part of Russia's nuclear deterrent.

[Tanaji]

The Russians have not confirmed it and the US hasnt either. The target doesn't seem to be worthy of a multi million dollar icbm with dummy warheads either as photos of the target show nothing interesting.

If Russia wanted to send a message, there are better ways without an ICBM or use a full scale test to demonstrate it on the Kamchatka peninsula which is their usual proving ground.

[srai]

11 x Storm Shadows strike against an underground command center in Kursk

[S_Madhukar]

So now along with melee weapons we need a large payload missile under the nuke threshold ? Because the Nukes are for show only ? MIC must be smelling new kinds of weapons… how about one that just simulates a mushroom cloud and breaks a few windows ? If I have 500K casualties now is not the time for Gandhigiri

[Cyrano]

There isn't an unlimited supply of storm shadows or atacms given to Kiev regime a retired French general was saying. They may have about a dozen of each, half of the stock used already.

[Tanaji]

More details from Putins press release:

In combat conditions, a test was carried out of one of the latest Russian intermediate-range missile systems. In this case, with a non-nuclear hypersonic version of a ballistic missile," he says, before adding that the "test was successful. The target was reached".
"One of the largest industrial complexes known since the Soviet era has been hit on Ukraine’s territory, in the city of Dnipropetrovsk. It is still manufacturing missiles and other armaments," he adds.

[sanman]

The Russians have not confirmed it and the US hasnt either. The target doesn't seem to be worthy of a multi million dollar icbm with dummy warheads either as photos of the target show nothing interesting.

If Russia wanted to send a message, there are better ways without an ICBM or use a full scale test to demonstrate it on the Kamchatka peninsula which is their usual proving ground.

The videos of the strike show something instantly coming out of the sky like thunderbolts from heaven. It must have indeed been ICBM warheads, because nothing else looks so distinctive.

The physical target may have been Dnipro, but the real goal was the red lines that Russia seeks to protect.

Whoever says that Russia would never use ICBMs can now be assured that they're willing to go the distance.


Edit: Further reporting says it was IRBM not ICBM - but close enough - still very fast and deadly

[Cyrano]

It's State Dept vs Pentagon as some French analysts are saying, Biden is perhaps being bypassed.

[sanman]

It's State Dept vs Pentagon as some French analysts are saying, Biden is perhaps being bypassed.

Yeah, good assessment

Regarding this idea of doing things like this for putting Trump in a box and forcing him to adhere to pre-existing policy trajectories after he takes office -- some people are referring to this as "Trump-proofing" -- I don't see the constitutional basis for it

See 9:32 onwards

[sanman]

See 6:17 onwards

[sanman]

The new missile is called Oreshnik

[sanman]

https://x.com/georgex08939939/status/18 ... 1747544271

Ukraine Intelligence is reporting that this is a picture of a North Korean soldier killed in Russia by Ukrainian forces

[Deleted]

[sanman]

https://x.com/georgex08939939/status/18 ... 9770040433

[srai]

Sanman … can you please not post directly closeup graphic photo of the dead?

Please put a cautionary note and link for those who wish to see