Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[Yogi_G]

Late Sri Gorbachev was a gullible duffer of the first order who was the Zelensky of his time. Ate away the USSR from within and made it weak and vulnerable. It stood for some principles (many of them useless and anti-India) and then Yelstin happened. Yelstin's weaknesses ensured that the West's breaking of promises went unchallenged. Thank God Putin happened and he turned out to be a friend of India.

[Cyrano]

As usual excellent analysis by Jacques Baud

[Tanaji]

In a last ditch effort, the US has allowed Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with ATACMS. I suspect this is down to a combination of the war not going well for Ukraine and Trump coming in. Just like a long list of weapons such as M1A1, Atacms, F16, Himars, M777… this is another throw of the dice.

[Aditya_V]

Question if they hit something significant in Russia and Russia uses Houthis or somewhere in Africa to hit something of NATO, the yellow piece will hit the fan, I hope some pull back happens.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Late Sri Gorbachev was a gullible duffer of the first order who was the Zelensky of his time. Ate away the USSR from within and made it weak and vulnerable. It stood for some principles (many of them useless and anti-India) and then Yelstin happened. Yelstin's weaknesses ensured that the West's breaking of promises went unchallenged. Thank God Putin happened and he turned out to be a friend of India.

Yogiji, I would not put it so simply. Gorbachov, did make strategic mistakes, but the Soviet Union was broke. Throughout history, CCCP had an inefficient economy and were highly dependent on energy exports. They had their backs to the wall and in the last 15 years, were highly dependent on Western Banks for loans. They were in dire straits and literally at the mercy of Western financial institutions.

Soviet Per Capita GDP


Crude Prices Historical:


In the above two charts you will see the dip in oil prices in the early 80's dealt a hammer blow to the already tottering Soviet Union. Of, course, this is a very simplistic view, and there were many other factors. And yes, MG may have been too naive in dealing with the West. The Russians for a long time wanted to and believed that they were part of the West and had expected that the West would welcome them with open arms if they ended the Cold War. There are multiple interpretations of this, the fact that Soviet leadership had become ossified before Gorbachov. Brehznev, Andropov,Cherenko were pretty old, and teh Soviet economy was not working, Gorbachov, tried to break from the past, but it was already too late.

If you want, you can go through this dated World Bank report of the last few years of the Soviet economy.

P.S. This is only my 2 kopeks worth of thoughts, crystallized partly with discussions with older ex-Soviet people. Take it FWIW.

[Cyrano]

Biden may have gleefully sabotaged Dems after he was forced to drop out of the race, but his hatred for Reps runs a lot deeper.

Après moi le déluge - he will do whatever he can to screw things up for Trump.

After the Afghan withdrawal, he is desperate for another feather in his cap.

[Yogi_G]

Late Sri Gorbachev was a gullible duffer of the first order who was the Zelensky of his time. Ate away the USSR from within and made it weak and vulnerable. It stood for some principles (many of them useless and anti-India) and then Yelstin happened. Yelstin's weaknesses ensured that the West's breaking of promises went unchallenged. Thank God Putin happened and he turned out to be a friend of India.

Yogiji, I would not put it so simply. Gorbachov, did make strategic mistakes, but the Soviet Union was broke. Throughout history, CCCP had an inefficient economy and were highly dependent on energy exports. They had their backs to the wall and in the last 15 years, were highly dependent on Western Banks for loans. They were in dire straits and literally at the mercy of Western financial institutions.

Soviet Per Capita GDP


Crude Prices Historical:


In the above two charts you will see the dip in oil prices in the early 80's dealt a hammer blow to the already tottering Soviet Union. Of, course, this is a very simplistic view, and there were many other factors. And yes, MG may have been too naive in dealing with the West. The Russians for a long time wanted to and believed that they were part of the West and had expected that the West would welcome them with open arms if they ended the Cold War. There are multiple interpretations of this, the fact that Soviet leadership had become ossified before Gorbachov. Brehznev, Andropov,Cherenko were pretty old, and teh Soviet economy was not working, Gorbachov, tried to break from the past, but it was already too late.

If you want, you can go through this dated World Bank report of the last few years of the Soviet economy.

P.S. This is only my 2 kopeks worth of thoughts, crystallized partly with discussions with older ex-Soviet people. Take it FWIW.

Thats precisely my point. All the Glasnost nonsense ensured that the ones who did work stopped doing so compunding economic troubles. USSR went through several boom bust cycles of Oil but was able to withstand. Depleted productivity of the Soviet workers brought USSR to an end along with a severe consumer goods shortage. Gorbachev simply made Soviet inefficiency fatal which it wasnt under Brezhenev.

Putin realises this and ensures that productivity albeit lower compared to the west remains a focus. A self sufficient economy depenedent on oil can only grow so much.

[Cyrano]

The only thing that saved URSS/Russia from being balkanized and torn into pieces was/is it's huge nuclear arsenal.

But NATO still keeps provoking them.

[sanman]

Biden may have gleefully sabotaged Dems after he was forced to drop out of the race, but his hatred for Reps runs a lot deeper.

Après moi le déluge - he will do whatever he can to screw things up for Trump.

After the Afghan withdrawal, he is desperate for another feather in his cap.

This poisonous oid man and his malevolent deep state don't want to give up power - or at least not leave anything for the next admin except ashes.

Biden's Poison Pill Strategy.

Permission to launch missiles at Russia proper is just putting us on a collision course with WW3.

[Yogi_G]

Zelensky's opportunity to sucker punch the Russians before change of Guard in DC. Question is where will Zelensky run now for political asylum. No one will take him with Trump watching. Staying in Ukraine will be very risky, Yanukovichs and Putin's people will for sure hunt him down without US cover on him. Tough days indeed for Zelensky. Best he can do is work out an agreement with Putin for asylum in US where he can go back to continue being the joker er...comedian that he is.

[mody]

Ukraine has confirmed launching ATACMS missiles on Russia.

"The strike was on a military facility near the Karachev city in the Bryansk region of Russia, 130km from Ukrainian border, said the news report. "

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world ... 70392.html

[Cyrano]

**** around and find out where the red lines are...

[ShauryaT]

How does it make sense to threaten a nuclear response without first mobilizing conventional resources on a war footing? Putin is not dumb to realize what this last minute Biden escalation is about. It is nothing but saber-rattling to come to a settlement on which he sits pretty on the frontlines. A threat of a nuclear response to a conventional missile attack is a sign of weakness by any measure.

[drnayar]

How does it make sense to threaten a nuclear response without first mobilizing conventional resources on a war footing? Putin is not dumb to realize what this last minute Biden escalation is about. It is nothing but saber-rattling to come to a settlement on which he sits pretty on the frontlines. A threat of a nuclear response to a conventional missile attack is a sign of weakness by any measure.

what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander ! .. [ The United States continues to rely on nuclear weapons to deter all forms of strategic attack – including nuclear employment of any scale – and high consequence attacks of a strategic nature using non-nuclear means.]

[Cyrano]

Putin signed a decree updating their nuclear doctrine doctrine today.

Everyone knows the ATACMS fired were done by NATO technicians on the ground, choice of targets has US involvement and validation. Which means NATO is a cobelligerant.

May be Putin will sabre rattle and stay conventional, until Jan 20. But may be he won't. What's the downside? Will India stop buying russian oil if he fires a tactical nuke into Ukraine? Will NATO riposte with a nuke for a non NATO country? The britshits may very well do that.

We are in some very dangerous transition period here.

[williams]

How does it make sense to threaten a nuclear response without first mobilizing conventional resources on a war footing? Putin is not dumb to realize what this last minute Biden escalation is about. It is nothing but saber-rattling to come to a settlement on which he sits pretty on the frontlines. A threat of a nuclear response to a conventional missile attack is a sign of weakness by any measure.

That is true, but Putin has the right to doctrinally prepare to respond to long range ballistic and cruise missiles coming across his territory and you have no way to detect if that is a conventional attack. It also depends on the lethality of such attacks. What if Ukraine goes crazy and target civilians in Russia. You should be ready to punish the powers that is instigating Ukraine to do such things.

[sanman]

Biden & Euro-cronies are doing their best to raise the level of war and put Trump in a box, so that he can't easily bring about a peace settlement after he takes office.

[Tanaji]

Biden & Euro-cronies are doing their best to raise the level of war and put Trump in a box, so that he can't easily bring about a peace settlement after he takes office.

+1. Also this is likely Bidens advisers than himself - he seems out of it - more likely someone from Obama camp for selfish political gains. Not to mention the enormous money to be made in this war: just the 155mm shell contract is $1.5B. Overall increase in industrial capacity for arms production? $15B… This does not include actual weapons…

[Yogi_G]

It would be suicide for Putin to attempt another mobilisation among a war fatigued population, citizens will revolt against a draft for sure. You can only get some many soldiers from N.Korea. russia's demography is working against Putin and the only thing going for him is the strength of the mil-industry complex which is giving him the drones and missiles he seeks.

[sanman]

Listen to what may be Trump's best short speech yet! Bullseye!
This is a leader who values his own country's interests and understands where the threats really are.

https://x.com/_IDonaldTrump/status/1858544963664990217

[Tanaji]

In a further sign that things are not going well, Biden has authorised the use of anti personnel mines for Ukraine. This after denouncing its use by Russia as a war crime… the justification is that US mines are supposedly going to go inert after a period of time.

[SRajesh]

^^No saar
Unkil's antipersonnel mines are so sophisticated that they target only Russians/NoKo's or Rouge Jihadis (not the subservient ones under Unkil's thumb).
After 6th Jan 2025 they go Pusss.. like old Diwali pataka.
So no War Crime committed onlee

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Things are really not going well when even the PeePeeSee has this as their grape article.

Russian gains accelerate as Ukraine's Kursk gamble falters.

[sanman]

Excellent comment from Col. Douglas MacGregor:

Goal was never to help Ukraine, but to harm Russia

[Vayutuvan]

How does it make sense to threaten a nuclear response without first mobilizing conventional resources on a war footing? Putin is not dumb to realize what this last minute Biden escalation is about. It is nothing but saber-rattling to come to a settlement on which he sits pretty on the frontlines. A threat of a nuclear response to a conventional missile attack is a sign of weakness by any measure.

This is FYI post. I came across the following page on Wikipedia which talks about escalation ladder before a nuclear exchange happens. First proposed by Herman Kahn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Ka ... r_theories

The bases of his work were systems theory and game theory as applied to economics and military strategy. Kahn argued that for deterrence to succeed, the Soviet Union had to be convinced that the United States had second-strike capability in order to leave the Politburo in no doubt that even a perfectly coordinated massive attack would guarantee a measure of retaliation that would leave them devastated as well:

At the minimum, an adequate deterrent for the United States must provide an objective basis for a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no matter how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on the United States would lead to a very high risk if not certainty of large-scale destruction to Soviet civil society and military forces.[11]

In 1962, Kahn published a 16-step escalation ladder. By 1965 he had developed this into a 44-step ladder.[12]

Ostensible Crisis
Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures
Solemn and Formal Declarations
Hardening of Positions – Confrontation of Wills
Show of Force
Significant Mobilization
"Legal" Harassment – Retortions
Harassing Acts of Violence
Dramatic Military Confrontations
Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations
Super-Ready Status
Large Conventional War (or Actions)
Large Compound Escalation
Declaration of Limited Conventional War
Barely Nuclear War
Nuclear "Ultimatums"
Limited Evacuations (20%)
Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
"Justifiable" Counterforce Attack
"Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade
Local Nuclear War – Exemplary
Declaration of Limited Nuclear War
Local Nuclear War – Military
Unusual, Provocative and Significant Countermeasures
Evacuation (70%)
Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior
Exemplary Attack on Military
Exemplary Attacks Against Property
Exemplary Attacks on Population
Complete Evacuation (95%)
Reciprocal Reprisals
Formal Declaration of "General" War
Slow-Motion Counter-"Property" War
Slow-Motion Counterforce War
Constrained Force-Reduction Salvo
Constrained Disarming Attack
Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack
Unmodified Counterforce Attack
Slow-Motion Countercity war
Countervalue Salvo
Augmented Disarming Attack
Civilian Devastation Attack
Controlled General War
Spasm/Insensate War

[sanman]

Biden admin may want to give nukes to Ukraine

[Manish_P]

...

This is FYI post. I came across the following page on Wikipedia which talks about escalation ladder before a nuclear exchange happens. First proposed by Herman Kahn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Ka ... r_theories

....
In 1962, Kahn published a 16-step escalation ladder. By 1965 he had developed this into a 44-step ladder.[12]

Ostensible Crisis
Political, Economic and Diplomatic Gestures
Solemn and Formal Declarations
Hardening of Positions – Confrontation of Wills
Show of Force
Significant Mobilization
"Legal" Harassment – Retortions
Harassing Acts of Violence
Dramatic Military Confrontations
...

So they are at step 9...or about to go to step 9?

[sanman]

So they are at step 9...or about to go to step 9?

You mean more steps are possible after Step 9?
Sounds like the last step off the cliff.

[Vayutuvan]

It is Europe which is doing it. Not the US. Only two have nucs - UK and France. They might want to pull the US in just like WW II. Trump coming in has upset their plans. Euros might be on very tight schedule to get to a level that even the US has no choice but to join the fray

[Deans]

Part 11 of my Ukraine war series, analysing the long range missiles used and their impact on the war.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/11/uk ... e-war.html

[sanman]

It is Europe which is doing it. Not the US. Only two have nucs - UK and France. They might want to pull the US in just like WW II. Trump coming in has upset their plans. Euros might be on very tight schedule to get to a level that even the US has no choice but to join the fray

I don't know how the Europeans could be such idiots to not see that Trump would come.

But maybe they did and kept these contingency plans -- but gosh, these are pretty crummy plans.

Meanwhile look at what plans the Russians are now putting into motion



Maybe Russia should borrow from China's playbook, and start building artificial islands in the Baltic sea

[sanman]

Anti-govt rioting in Georgia's capital of Tbilisi

Who's being groomed as their next Zelensky or Yunus?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 698797007/

[sanman]

Tucker Carlson in Moscow for another interview, warning that US military may be killing Russians on Russian soil

[sanman]

Tucker Carlson interviews Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

[Cyrano]

What a wasted opportunity with Lavrov! Tucker is dumb as duck and out of depth in such interviews. The only good thing is he lets his guests speak without interrupting.

[sanman]

What a wasted opportunity with Lavrov! Tucker is dumb as duck and out of depth in such interviews. The only good thing is he lets his guests speak without interrupting.

Hmm, well, what would you have preferred?

[sanman]

Older interview with Kissinger from 30 years ago on NATO expansion

[sanman]

Romania's govt nullifies election result that gave right-wing populist a victory

https://www.ft.com/content/37347819-22b ... 6115a8f5af

They're calling the election result a "Russian conspiracy"

[srai]

First Armenia… now Syria. Russian influence waning. Ukraine war taking its toll.




Damascus surrounded. Rebels moving in from three fronts. Some have already reached the outskirts.

What will happen to remaining Russian bases in Syria along the coast? Seems like only a matter of time they will be overrun.

[sanman]

First Armenia… now Syria. Russian influence waning. Ukraine war taking its toll.

What's happened to Armenia? I thought they're still fighting as usual - what's changed? Have our crappy weapons not helped them hold the line?

As for Syria, that worthless Assad govt seem to be basketcases like the Afghan royalist govt.
Let's see if the Iranians will try to bail them out.

Meanwhile, Romania's election result is being nullified because a pro-Russia guy won:

https://x.com/SergeOrloff_OP/status/1865548445291106399