Shared some thoughts on the current situation in Bangladesh last night.
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First and foremost, let us call it for what it is currently – An attempt at re-establishing East Pakistan.
Yup, that’s what it is. Pakistan attempting to return to its erstwhile colony via proxy.
Come to think of it, conditions in East Bengal today are quite similar to what they were in 1970-71:
1. Interim Govt in place.
2. Democratically elected Govt not allowed to function.
3. Widespread and blatant atrocities against minorities and those that the current ‘govt’ doesn’t like.
The only (nominal) difference is that in 1971 it was more of a ethnic divide between the Punjab dominated rulers from West Pakistan and their Bengali subject in the East Pakistan. Now, however, it is about the Jamaat gone wild under the nominal cover of a geriatric Noble Laureate.
Make no mistake; the religious fanaticism seen during the Direct Action Day has remained very much alive in Bangladesh.
But what I find interesting to note is the sheer outrage all these atrocities against minorities in Bangladesh by the rabid yahoos has caused within India.
Indian Media has been covering it ceaselessly.
Further, even politicians cutting across political lines have denounced it.
Why might that be so?
IMO, it gives a glimpse to atleast a few of the sheep on our side of the fate that they themselves have avoided thus far, thanks partly to the Partition of the Motherland in 1947. Also, the fate endured by our own ancestors in 1947 and before that as well.
So what comes next ..
Well, there are two important dates that are fast approaching which I am keenly watching out for.
Firstly, 16 December, which marks 53 years of liberation of Bangladesh by the Indian Army. Secondly, 20 January, which is the day Donald Trump will be in power.
Let’s talk about 16 Dec first. It is an emotional date which is just about a week hence. It is a part of Bangladesh history that cannot be wished away, no matter how much they try or how much they blow their own trumpet wrt Indian Trained and Indian Equipped Mukti Bahini.
Period.
This is where it will get awkward for the Bangladesh Army as well as their Brown Panted ‘brethren’ in Erstwhile West Pakistan.
Coming over to the next important date, i.e, 20 Jan. I get a feeling that the yahoos are trying to inflict as much damage as they can, before their Democrat benefactors in USA remit office.
To be fair, this is happening everywhere, including Ukraine.
What Bangladesh refuses to see is that their destiny is well and truly linked with India. If a Pakistan could be broken up in 1971 when circumstances demanded it, so also can a Bangladesh when it becomes inevitable.
Of course there is the inevitable question of Bangladesh plunging into darkness, literally, in case they don’t cough up the money they owe. But the newly ‘martial’ quom of Bangladesh are still running around with their chests puffed, having learnt from the best, i.e. Pakistan!
Bottomline: There is a great opportunity for India to set right yet more historical wrongs that have been permitted to continue thus far. What, when and how, remain to be seen. I am sure the GOI would already have contingency plans in place in any case.
There are a multitude of options available to Indian in case the situation in Bangladesh continues to fester as it is today. Add to it a relatively friendly regime in the USA even though it would not matter when it comes to national interests, just like 1971 and 1998.
If a much weaker India could brush off the economic sanctions after the nuclear tests of 1998, the India of today can afford to do so many times over. That is in case the ‘world’ dares to sanction India at all.
The ideal end case scenario that I would like to see is Indian borders expanding to protect the minorities in Bangladesh. And the Bangladesh Army cut down to size commensurate to their circumstances, no more than 30,000.
Dare I say, things are fast moving to a stage where kinetic action by India would become inevitable and inescapable. Statements by GOI as well as political parties and private citizens are increasingly calling out the blatant murder and rape of minorities happening in Bangladesh.
Those ******** can deny all that they want, but fact remains that GOI has never been this direct about such issues in past. THIS is something that Govt of Bangladesh would have already taken note of. Yet, in their hubris, they will end up losing parts of their country yet again.
They have chosen their friends.
And they have chosen their enemies as well.
In fact, they have forcibly made enemies out of not only benefactors, but those that actually made their own country a reality when they were being raped and slaughtered mercilessly.
Events of the coming weeks and months will be the history that our grandchildren will be taught in their schools. I have no doubts we have the stronger cards in this ‘game’ and this time, we may or may not be as benevolent as we historically have been.
With this, I conclude this thread. 16 Dec and later, 20 Jan are the inflection points I will be looking at. In any case, even if the current regime in Bangladesh survives a bit longer than that, they will still end up ruining their country for good.
