Over the last one year I have been thinking about making this particular post on this topic. But due to general laziness I have put it off till date. This is going to be a rambling post. Hopefully, it will make some sense to someone.
Note
1) I don't consider the Shahid family as Drones. I consider them to be low end medium capacity cruise missiles. Therefore I am not going to consider them as part of the future of the precision fire system for the purposes of what I am about to post. Even though for all intents and purposes Shahid is a precision fire support system.
2) There are several related topics that I am not explicitly addressing in this post, such as EM bandwidth and EM Emissions required to control drones, but I am expecting the reader to possess an implicit understanding of the topic.
3) I am not including GPS guided systems in this post as we have seen jamming as an effective countermeasure to these system, no reason to assume that future battlefield with be any different for such systems.
coming to the actual point of the post. People are fascinated by the use of man in the loop, inexpensive FPV drones or even larger man in the loop drones like the Lancet family.
On the Ukrainian battlefield we are seeing cheap and expensive fire support drones dominate. It may give an appearance that in a future peer level fight the results will be dominated by those with a superior drone capacity. However, the
French army chief has called the dominance of drones on the battlefield a fleeting moment before counter measures are developed and deployed in sufficient quantities. Some of the countermeasures are as simple as brute force broad band jamming in a specific area. Something the Russians have attempted with turtle tanks, with different degrees of effectiveness.
The other possible counter measure for FPV, and Loitering munition for armored forces would be an integration of APS and light weight 20 or 30 MM canons fitted on top of the Tank/ Armored vehicle. The canon is provided fire control solution by the APS radar/ other sensors. The canon engages the munition with gunfire. We are seeing a development of such an integrated system by both Germany and Israel.
Keeping in view the above I don't think that FPV drones will remain a dominant force against a peer level competitor for long time. However, against irregular forces such such systems are still going to be relevant and a vital component of the arsenal.
That still leaves the problem of precision engagement on the battlefield to be solved for different forces.
During the late 80 and early 90s the western powers had a development program for the deployment of
NLOS fiber optically guided missiles and
Precision guided 81/120 mm mortars, along with LASER guided 152/155 mm shells. Due to the end of the cold war, the western efforts fell by the wayside and were abandoned at least where the NLOS fiber optic guided systems were concerned. The LASER guided systems have entered service in different quantities with different armies.
Even in Ukraine conflict we are seeing deployment of
North Korean NLOS Fiber optic guided missiles by the Russians. This particular development represents the beginning of the end of inexpensive NLOS drones for precision strikes.
The future battlefield IMO is going to be dominated by fiber optic tethered surveillance drones at the Platoon/ Company/ Battalion level coupled with Fiber optic and LASER guided systems for beyond the line of sight strikes.
Secondly, conventional tube arty in order to be survivable will need to develop the following attributes.
1) A very high rate of fire i.e 10 to 20 RPM.
2) Fire control systems capable to accounting for every factor and engaging point targets with iron shells along with extremely precise target coordinates.
3) Shoot and Scoot on steroids, i.e, time taken from the receipt of fire mission to the conclusion fire mission and displacement has to be between 5 to 7 minutes, no more.
Hopefully this made sense to someone.