Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[sanman]

[sanman]

[srai]

First Armenia… now Syria. Russian influence waning. Ukraine war taking its toll.

…


Damascus surrounded. Rebels moving in from three fronts. Some have already reached the outskirts.

What will happen to remaining Russian bases in Syria along the coast? Seems like only a matter of time they will be overrun.

…

Assad regime is over! He has fled.

[Sharads]

Russia's humiliation continues unabated, from getting bogged down in Ukraine to being thrown out of Levant. Interesting to see how they manage coming economic squeeze, as outlined by Trump to takeover entire European energy market.

It'll also be interesting to see how the American Empire contains the ambitions of revanchist Turkey, all the while directing it to achieve Empire's goals.

Four possible outcomes face Turkey: a) Kept out of Levant and Caucasus by Americans and Israelis; b) Allowed to reign but under the strict control; c) Erdogan is deposed and puppet is installed by the CIA/State dept. ; d) Turkey jailbreaks and joins China and Russia.

[sanman]

Russia's humiliation continues unabated, from getting bogged down in Ukraine to being thrown out of Levant. Interesting to see how they manage coming economic squeeze, as outlined by Trump to takeover entire European energy market.

It'll also be interesting to see how the American Empire contains the ambitions of revanchist Turkey, all the while directing it to achieve Empire's goals.

Four possible outcomes face Turkey: a) Kept out of Levant and Caucasus by Americans and Israelis; b) Allowed to reign but under the strict control; c) Erdogan is deposed and puppet is installed by the CIA/State dept. ; d) Turkey jailbreaks and joins China and Russia.

If I were Putin, I would strike deal with MBS in Saudi to join forces against Turkey.
Weakened Iran is no longer worth it for Putin to bend over backwards to cater to them.
Putin should join forces with MBS in Saudi, and together they can gain leverage inside Syria against Turkey, and bring the Kurds onside for this.

Trump has said he doesn't want to get involved in Syria, so that could leave the way open for Putin-MBS alliance in Syria.
Trump will also favour ending Ukraine war sooner rather than later, so that again means Putin is less dependent on Iran.

[sanman]

Trump Wants China Involved in Russia-Ukraine Talks

[sanman]

John Mearsheimer vs Alexander Dugin

[Deans]

I blog on the Ukraine war and the feedback I often get when discussing it in forums is that India is siding with Russia, or financing Putin by buying Russian oil. My latest blog post looks at oil trade data and argues that India's actions are in the best interest of all oil importers. There are more egregious instances of sanctions busting and better ways to reduce Russia's energy export revenues without harming importers.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/12/in ... ality.html

[Baikul]

The Azerbaijani civilian airliner that crashed is now being reported as being shot down by Russian air defences.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 024-12-26/

[fanne]

Hmm the plane seamed ok before crashing, more like steep dive angle and then wing generating lift and plane gaining attitude. Then crashing more like loss of control. Of course arm chair analysis. But I do not see any fire or engine shot down or holes (with fuel falling out).

[fanne]

Also the plane had reached the airport and almost landed, though landing was where the plane caught fire. It landed straight but then turned and skidded sideways and caught fire. The front lg was there, rear lg missing?

[Tanaji]

Hmm the plane seamed ok before crashing, more like steep dive angle and then wing generating lift and plane gaining attitude. Then crashing more like loss of control. Of course arm chair analysis. But I do not see any fire or engine shot down or holes (with fuel falling out).

There are photos of the plane with holes in the tail section after the crash. The holes seemed to be horizontally created so unlikely as a result of the crash.

[Baikul]

^^ Yes the photos are reminiscent of shrapnel damage.

[srai]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... ines-crash



https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/art ... -jlmd67z7n


https://news.sky.com/story/amp/russian- ... s-13279931

[Aditya_V]

How come the video of the plane intact and doing circles with no flaming engines, radar guided missiles, tail would have come off, IR guided missile 1 engine would be burning, how can the plane land slowly to have 29 survivors, how can a plane fly for 1 hour with trouble? , missile hit the plane should have crashed within a few minutes, no time to contact ATC and then head for an airport.

The facts don't look like a SAM hit, some holes in the fuselage could have Co.e at the time of landing, for Western media using sources, this could be some psyops.

What does Russia gain from this, Russian civilian Aircraft use this corridor.

[fanne]

Do the holes look like something exploded from inside out?

[Vayutuvan]

@fanne ji, I think the light and shadow is such that it can be either/or. Visual illusions depend on this kind of perceptual inversions.

[fanne]

Vayutavan ji yup I agree

[drnayar]

anyone remember this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by two surface-to-air missiles fired by USS Vincennes, a United States Navy warship. The missiles hit the Iran Air aircraft, an Airbus A300, while it was flying its usual route over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, shortly after the flight departed its stopover location, Bandar Abbas International Airport. All 290 people on board were killed, making it one of the deadliest airliner shootdowns of all time.

[IndraD]

Estonia navy to protect undersea power link after main cable damaged
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1elq7lx9qdo

Nordic countries losing their under sea cables/gas lines, Russia said issue too small to comment

[IndraD]

Report: US investor eyes purchase of Nord Stream 2 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-u ... 11459.html

Serbian President Vučić has stated that the Nord Stream pipeline may be restarted soon:

"Germany urgently needs cheap Russian gas, so within a year, the remaining intact section of the Nord Stream pipeline could be sold to U.S. investors and put back into operation."

[srai]

Azerbaijan's president says airliner that crashed was shot down

"We can say with complete clarity that the plane was shot down by Russia. (...) We are not saying that it was done intentionally, but it was done,” he told Azerbaijani state television on Sunday.

Aliyev said that the airliner, which crashed on Wednesday in Kazakhstan, was hit by fire from the ground over Russia and “rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare." Aliyev accused Russia of trying to “hush up” the issue for several days, saying he was “upset and surprised” by versions of events put forward by Russian officials.

“Unfortunately, for the first three days we heard nothing from Russia except delirious versions,” he said.

The crash killed 38 of 67 people on board. The Kremlin said that air defence systems were firing near Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, where the plane attempted to land, to deflect a Ukrainian drone strike.
…

[srai]

Russian-Ukrainian gas pipeline transit deal has ended. EU will need to find alternative sources.

[srai]

The new norm … conquest of the strong

[Cyrano]

DW is a German propaganda mouth piece headed by a pastor. It's credibility is worse than NYT.

Bottom line is that Germany's economy is in tatters, Scholz will be gone, right wing parties are in full upswing, people are openly talking about Dexit and quitting NATO. Mil equipment stocks are depleted across Europe, they are just an empty tin can making noise at this point.

Yet there are some who insist Putin is losing the war ! They refuse to see that his unstated objective is dismantling NATO - nothing else will secure Russia's long term security.

Syria is another side trap. We already saw the shit show visit of bareback wiping off insult after insult when she visited Syria few days ago, ostensibly to defend women's rights in front of kattar jihadi scum.

Who can save the wilfully blind?!

[srai]

UK-Ukraine 100-year partnership for security

Likely, rest of EU will follow suit

[srai]

UK and France in talks over sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine

Deployment of Western soldiers could help underpin post-war settlement between Kyiv and Moscow

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are discussing sending British and French soldiers to Ukraine as a peacekeeping force after any potential deal to end the war, The Telegraph understands.

…
One Whitehall source told The Telegraph: “There are challenges over what we could support, what would we want to support, and the broader question about the threat that those troops may be under and whether that is escalatory.”

The proposal comes as European leaders scramble to work out how to continue supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty as president-elect Donald Trump pushes for Kyiv to strike a peace deal with Russia.

In private, ministers and officials are expecting Mr Trump to force Ukraine and Russia to get around the negotiating table, with attempts now underway to map out what would happen next.

One idea now increasingly being talked about, not just in public debate but behind closed doors in Westminster, is whether Western troops may need to guarantee any peace terms.

The thinking revolves around the idea that Russia could keep Ukrainian land it has captured as part of a peace deal – though much uncertainty about that prospect remains.

Should that happen, European leaders have been thinking about what can be done to make sure the remaining territory of Ukraine is protected from any future Russian attacks.

The challenge is that Mr Trump’s past criticism of deploying soldiers abroad, and his political attacks on financial support for Ukraine, mean it is unlikely US troops would take part. Multiple UK officials have come to this conclusion.

One US-floated idea is that Western soldiers could man an 800-mile border between the new Ukrainian and Russian borders, with a demilitarised “buffer” zone established.

Mr Macron is pushing the idea that European allies could be deployed on the ground to play such a role. Some of his discussions with other leaders have become public.

…
A UK Government spokesman said: “The UK is taking a leading role in supporting Ukraine, which is why the Prime Minister committed £3 billion a year of military support for Ukraine for as long as it takes, and this year the UK will spend more than it ever has on military funding for Ukraine.

“Our focus remains on bolstering Ukraine’s defence, and we continue to push international partners to ramp up their financial support to Ukraine to ensure Putin loses.


…

[drnayar]

UK-Ukraine 100-year partnership for security

Likely, rest of EU will follow suit

[youtube]_u85aKfc__k[/youtube

300 billion pounds over 10 years !! .. well now tax payers will know where money is going !!.. no money to pay salaries , social benefits or NHS .. but yeah ukreeen

[srai]

^^^
Brits (and the US) are business-minded. All of these “aid” are not for “free”. It will be recuperated (and more) in some form over time.

[A Deshmukh]

Ukraine's arable land...

[drnayar]

Ukraine's arable land...

its still certain corporations and some bureucrats who would benefit. This is an interesting conjuncture in UK context. It is run by bureaucrats, NOT by politicians., they are there just for show. [ The yes prime minister is unfortunately the frank truth in UKs case ]

[chetak]

Zelensky says the US, Hungary, Slovakia and Germany do not want to see Ukraine in NATO

- This should not be controversial. Ukraine in NATO would pull the West into a direct war with Russia, which would likely escalate into a nuclear war. Arguing for Ukraine in NATO is absurd

[Lisa]

UK and France in talks over sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine

Deployment of Western soldiers could help underpin post-war settlement between Kyiv and Moscow
…

Russian will not accept ANY western forces on its Ukrainian border. The suggestion that NATO is unacceptable but western forces in a different guise are, is laughable. IMO In any agreement, Ukraine will be lucky if they themselves are allowed to have a standing armed force, all inclusive, in excess of 300K.

Let's remember, Russia will be defeated but if it cannot, we will allow them to give us permission for a permanent forward deployment against them!

[srai]

War ended in 24-hours

[Manish_P]

War ended in 24-hours
...

Time is all about relativity isn't it.. Sleepy Joe had relatives linked to Ukraine. Need to see if Trump does.

[Arima]

War ended in 24-hours
...

Time is all about relativity isn't it.. Sleepy Joe had relatives linked to Ukraine. Need to see if Trump does.

President Trump is creating aura around him that he can finish this war in 100 days. hope it do not end in catastrophy

[srai]

Ukraine’s $26 trillion Rare Earth minerals for US military aid

US going after Greenland too …



Now we know why Russia was after Ukraine too


Will Trump Let Putin Get Ukraine’s $26 Trillion in Gas and Minerals?

…

Ukraine is not only the breadbasket of Europe; it is also a mineral superpower with some of the largest reserves of 117 of the 120 the most widely used minerals in the world. Of the 50 strategic minerals identified by the United States as critical to its economy and national security, many of which are quite rare yet key to certain high-value applications, Ukraine supplies 22.

Ukraine possesses the largest reserves of uranium in Europe; the second-largest reserves of iron ore, titanium and manganese; and the third largest reserves of shale gas — as well as large deposits of lithium, graphite and rare earth metals, according to a 2022 report by the Canadian geopolitical risk-analysis firm SecDev. These minerals are essential to the production of vital goods ranging from airplanes, cellphones and electric vehicles to steel and nuclear power.


…

[Aditya_V]

But we also know why the West created a Russia Ukraine problem, since 1945 former Ukranian SS has been pampered, 2014 Victoria Nuland was on the ground to oversea the Maidan coupe, there are no good guys here. The West was faking peace since Minsk 2, they would have killed any pro Russian Ukranian in Donna's Crimea, Putin made a gamble and wanted to show he was serious, but the West doubled down in Mar 22, thinking they held the upper hand , initially it paid off handsomely in Sep 22 and Oct 22, they should have pushed for peace atleast then.

Make no mistake other than Tomohawks, the West has used a lot of its capability, when Ukrainian Drones hit Russian energy and gas(avoiding military targets which they would prefer) it's guided by the NATO satellites. NATO Awacs fleet and low orbit satellites targeting Russian ships and every movement early in the war have all probably used up thier lives.

The deal is getting worse for NATO as the war prolonged. They gambled on dismantling Russia in a all or nothing contest and seem to have lost.

[Lisa]

So strange, not even one post on how Trump has helped ukraine win the war despite all the recent flow of news concerning the conflict!

P.S. God bless the EU.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Queering the pitch for negotiations??

X-Posting from Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Reports of Russian drone attack on Chernobyl nuclear sarcophagus. I find this hard to believe but posting it here for future reverence. Source: Reddit

https://packaged-media.redd.it/kqxsm4hb ... 12539d3eae



This is even being reported by Washington Post, EuroNews and Forbes.