Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[Deans]

My latest blogpost, My ideas on the war might end.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2025/02/uk ... t-end.html

[Cyrano]

Deans Ji, your analysis is correct (as usual:)) but how this war will end part IMVHO is wishful thinking.

Russia will not let go of the oblasts at all, not after losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get to where they are now. Nor will they let go of Crimea it's sole access to warm water port.

Russia will not agree to a new referendum, they conducted one some time ago with international observers. They don't care what US or EU thinks.

Russia has rewired it's economy to nullify the impact of sanctions. They will not use taking off sanctions as a negotiation chip.

Ukrainians who fled to Europe - mostly women and children aren't coming back in any significant numbers. Why come back to a life of struggle, poverty and penury ? They have rebuilt their lives in Europe and US, Canada. Their men are either dead, maimed or lost everything in this war, families have been ripped apart. Nothing to go back for.

EU arsenals which were meager to begin with are further depleted, they are in no position to do anything for Ukraine by putting boots on the ground. Their troops aren't trained for the low tech high intensity conflict against Russia irrespective of how much bluster European leaders spout - they all know this.

Politically leftwing dominated parties are seriously challenged. They have no popular backing, their propaganda to their own citizens is unraveling fast.

Zelinsky has lied so much to so many people in Ukraine and outside, destroyed so many lives, he is under serious threat of assassination by extremist groups within Ukraine. I don't wish for it, but if does happen, Europe and US will have a collective sigh of relief and get into negotiations to end this war, and give Russia almost everything it wants. It will be the perfect off ramp for all.

In this scenario the more territory Russia takes the less reconstruction burden on EU for what is left. EU states are heavily in deficit, huge borrowing costs, if euro tanks then EU will not survive.

Trump will simply blame EU countries for this mess and move on, many Americans can't find Ukraine on a map anyways. I don't think it will impact him much, he isn't running for another term. His focus will be mid terms and US economy will be more important for his electorate than Ukraine.

I can't predict exactly what will happen next or timelines, but these major factors will be at play. JMT

[drnayar]

Deans Ji, your analysis is correct (as usual:)) but how this war will end part IMVHO is wishful thinking.

Russia will not let go of the oblasts at all, not after losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get to where they are now. Nor will they let go of Crimea it's sole access to warm water port.

Russia will not agree to a new referendum, they conducted one some time ago with international observers. They don't care what US or EU thinks.

Russia has rewired it's economy to nullify the impact of sanctions. They will not use taking off sanctions as a negotiation chip.


I can't predict exactly what will happen next or timelines, but these major factors will be at play. JMT

Indeed i agree., Russia paid for the territory it gained with the blood of its soldiers. They are not going back. period.

[mody]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pa ... 8142&ei=19

A speculative report on possible leaks on the thinking in Washington. But looks like Ukraine will have to pay a very heavy price. Trump is not going to leave Ukraine without his pound of flesh and it might a very big pound.
A whole generation of people in Ukraine will suffer. A loss of 20-25% of territory, a loss of 30-35% of the population and a loss of 30-50% of GDP.

[srai]

^^^ US wants $500 billion in rare earth minerals plus money in their own MIC as aid … double dipping

[Lisa]

The Coup de Grace is coming. US will abandon all sanctions on Russia so business can restart. EU can learn how to suck their thumbs and watch!

[drnayar]

UK s Ukraine response is likely dictated by blackrock ..

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-m ... rtnership/ : how BLACKROCK has infiltrated British bureaucracy

[drnayar]

source : https://x.com/Truthtellerftm/status/1854353029144670264


BLACKROCK UKRAINE UPDATE: In May 2023 the Government of Ukraine and Vice-President Philipp Hildebrand of the US company BlackRock Financial Market Advisory signed an agreement, on the creation of the Ukrainian Development Fund (UDF), a financial institution for the reconstruction of the country

Specifically, the fund will mobilize capital to carry out the reconstruction of the country focusing on sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, industry and information technology (IT).
Some experts believe that Kiev intends to repay its debts in this way, making Ukraine the property of transnational capital.

Blackrock’s international partners are involved in taking over the Ukrainian agribusiness and biotech giants Cargill, DuPont and Monsanto. Together, these jewish run companies bought about 17 million hectares in eastern and southern Ukraine. These are the regions with by far the most fertile soil, not only within Ukraine but even in this world.

The list of Ukrainian assets includes securities of the following companies: Metinvest, DTEK (energy), MJP (agriculture), Naftogaz, Ukrainian Railways, Ukravtodor and Ukrenergo.

Analyst Andrii Telizhenko, who previously served in Ukraine’s government had the following to say:

“Zelensky is… destroying his own country, leaving people to die for BlackRock, for Washington, for London – and Lindsey Graham confirmed it,” Telizhenko claimed, referring to the hawkish senator’s unyielding support for the proxy conflict. “Ukraine has trillions of dollars… worth of resources. That's why we're fighting this war. This is why Zelensky has to continue this war.”

[bala]

I think finally US and Russia have agreed to a halt on the war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is having a press conference sharing the results of high-stakes Russia-US talks in Saudi Arabia, YT:

youtube.com/watch?v=s0iBfuHoxTA

[Tanaji]

I don’t know what Zelensky was thinking when he publicly called out Trump as falling prey to disinformation. Anyone with an ounce of sense would realise that Trump is a vain man and belittling his ego publicly would invite scorn…

But then this is just a small mistake in a long list of Zelensky

[vera_k]

Hope a lot of products out of India can find buyers.

Denmark boosts arms spending by 70%

“If we can’t get the best equipment, buy the second-best. There is only one thing that counts, and that is speed,” she said in a press conference Wednesday. “Buy, buy, buy.”

[Manish_P]

...

“If we can’t get the best equipment, buy the second-best. There is only one thing that counts, and that is speed,”....

Pshaw, she needs to learn from our Indian defense procurement folks on how it is done

[Deans]

Deans Ji, your analysis is correct (as usual:)) but how this war will end part IMVHO is wishful thinking.

Russia will not let go of the oblasts at all, not after losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get to where they are now. Nor will they let go of Crimea it's sole access to warm water port.

Russia will not agree to a new referendum, they conducted one some time ago with international observers. They don't care what US or EU thinks.

Russia has rewired it's economy to nullify the impact of sanctions. They will not use taking off sanctions as a negotiation chip.

Ukrainians who fled to Europe - mostly women and children aren't coming back in any significant numbers. Why come back to a life of struggle, poverty and penury ? They have rebuilt their lives in Europe and US, Canada. Their men are either dead, maimed or lost everything in this war, families have been ripped apart. Nothing to go back for.

Cyrano ji, I'm actually saying the same thing, but maybe being more Chanakian.

The West's main grouse has been Russia's illegal invasion backed up by a sham election. Hence, the media narrative of Ukrainians living under
brutal Russian occupation or whatever. My point is, call the West's bluff. Offer to hold UN elections again, this time under UN supervision - India will be a credible election monitor.
Allow ethnic Ukrainians to move from Russian controlled areas of Ukraine to Ukraine and vice versa.
In all probability, the previous election result will be ratified. Russia (after population exchange) will gain a more `Russian' Ukraine. Countries like China, India and much of the global South would recognise the result, which is important. Russia would not give a rat's ass what NATO thinks.

This is a lot better than the Kosovo solution, where Serbia was bombed into the stone age, till they gave Kosovo independence.

Of course Ukrainians won't go back to Ukraine. But will the EU let them stay ? It will either show up EU for being cruel heartless people, or
let them deal with permanent refugees, mooching off Europe's welfare system, while non white refugees are denied entry.
I make the same point for Ukraine's EU membership. It won't happen.
At least the US is being upfront about abandoning project Ukraine. The EU is leading them on with false hope.

[Deans]

I don’t know what Zelensky was thinking when he publicly called out Trump as falling prey to disinformation. Anyone with an ounce of sense would realise that Trump is a vain man and belittling his ego publicly would invite scorn…

But then this is just a small mistake in a long list of Zelensky

Zelensky tried to gate crash the Saudi talks by arriving in the UAE - Ironically staying in Hotel Moscow in Dubai !
He was apparently told by both sides he wasn't wanted.

[Deans]

A point about rare earths that Ukraine supposedly has and are worth $ X trillion or whatever.

Lithium is not a rare earth. Neither are some of the other metals cited in the media. They are widely available incl. in the US and India.
The problem is the cost of extracting them. China controls the supply of these metals because it leads in extraction technology AND because such technology is environmentally destructive. Hence China extracts these in Africa where environmental concerns are not a factor.
US might be hoping to do the same in Ukraine. Ukraine has not so far extracted an ounce of rate earth.

Most proven deposits of these metals are in the Russian controlled parts of Ukraine, so the discussion is moot anyway.

[bala]

I think DJT is complaining to Zelensky about the money given to Ukraine by the US Govt, which is disappearing into shady hands and not being used for the purpose intended. Tis similar to giving the pakis any money, it goes into the pockets of the Afsars/generals of Paki army. DJT is claiming 350 B was spent on Ukr war by the US govt and most of it was swindled by Zelensky and his team. There were earlier reports of the Ukr army not being paid. The Euro cash was also going into a black hole abyss. Zelensky is not exactly a paragon of virtue.

People like Pence blaming Russia for the invasion are not exactly telling the truth, what about the background stoking of NATO and Zelensky walking away from an agreement with the Russians. It takes two to fight, not exactly one-sided. DJT putting an end to the fight is a welcome step. Let us see what emerges from the ongoing talks.

[drnayar]

A point about rare earths that Ukraine supposedly has and are worth $ X trillion or whatever.

Lithium is not a rare earth. Neither are some of the other metals cited in the media. They are widely available incl. in the US and India.
The problem is the cost of extracting them. China controls the supply of these metals because it leads in extraction technology AND because such technology is environmentally destructive. Hence China extracts these in Africa where environmental concerns are not a factor.
US might be hoping to do the same in Ukraine. Ukraine has not so far extracted an ounce of rate earth.

Most proven deposits of these metals are in the Russian controlled parts of Ukraine, so the discussion is moot anyway.

Ukraine has tremendous natural resources for meeting domestic oil and gas production needs, with estimates of approximately 900 billion cubic meters of proven reserves of natural gas. In Europe, Ukraine ranks second for gas reserves. Three Ukrainian regions contain hydrocarbons resources: the Dnipro-Donetsk basin, the Carpathian region in western Ukraine, and the Black Sea and Crimea region in the south. The Dnipro-Donetsk basin is a major oil and gas producing region accounting for 90 percent of all current Ukrainian production. The structure of hydrocarbons production in Ukraine is as follows: natural gas 89 percent, oil 7.9 percent, and gas condensate 3.1 percent. The primary source of hydrocarbons in Ukraine is natural gas, though the most lucrative gas reserves are located below 5,000 meters.

source : https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-g ... il-and-gas

[drnayar]

[drnayar]

what trump did to zelinsky

https://x.com/i/status/1892128946264723582

[drnayar]

Explosive

Why Baniansky is the worst sort of human being ever imagined



Donald Trump just called Zelensky a dictator. Human rights lawyer Bob Amsterdam has worked in Ukraine for the past couple of years and confirms that if anything, that’s an understatement



Summary
In a compelling discussion, Bob Amsterdam sheds light on the troubling state of religious freedom in Ukraine, particularly focusing on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and its ongoing repression under President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. Amsterdam, a Jewish liberal attorney, voices his concerns about the alarming lack of media coverage regarding the persecution faced by this religious group, which includes imprisonment and violence against priests. He expresses dismay at how the Ukrainian government, with support from Western institutions, has manipulated narratives to create a façade of democracy while engaging in actions that undermine civil liberties and religious freedoms.

Amsterdam points out that the Republican Christian constituency, which he expected to advocate for religious freedom, has shown little interest in the plight of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. In contrast, he notes that some Democrats, particularly their staff members, have exhibited a greater concern for these issues. He attributes this disinterest to the Ukrainian propaganda machine’s effective control over Washington’s narrative, suggesting that it has prioritized Ukrainian and Russian interests over those of the United States.

Highlighting the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, Amsterdam describes the dire situation faced by ordinary citizens, including high casualty rates and the conscription of children to the front lines. He criticizes the U.S. government’s complicity in the establishment of a “fake church” as a means to further its political agenda, while simultaneously enabling rampant corruption within the region. As he journeys across America to raise awareness through the documentary “On the Road: The Tucker Carlson Live Tour,” he emphasizes the necessity of reevaluating policies that restrict freedoms and advocates for greater access to accurate information, calling for a more informed public discourse on these pressing issues.

Highlights
Dire Situation in Ukraine: President Zelensky’s unpopularity and the grim reality of the war, including high casualties and the conscription of children.
Religious Persecution: The Ukrainian Orthodox Church faces severe repression, with priests jailed and beaten amidst a broader religious cleansing.
Media Silence: Mainstream media’s lack of coverage on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s plight and the implications of religious repression.
Ukrainian Propaganda: The effective control of narratives by Ukrainian propaganda, influencing U.S. policymakers to prioritize foreign interests over American ones.
Political Disinterest: The surprising lack of engagement from Republican Christians concerning religious freedom in Ukraine, contrasting with some Democratic staffers’ concerns.
Corruption and Compliance: Critique of U.S. government involvement in fostering corruption in Ukraine and the manipulation of compliance laws by corporate law firms.
Raising Awareness: Amsterdam’s documentary aims to inform the public about the complexities of the situation in Ukraine and the need for accurate information.

[Vayutuvan]

No elections during wartime martial law is in the Ukraine constitution. That clause predates the the start of the SMO by Russia. So in that respect, Zelensky is acting as per Ukrainian constitution. I am not saying he is not a dictator in addition to being a crook. As far as elections go, he is on firm ground.

[Cyrano]

There is more to the accusation on zelensky of some 350B USD than meets the eye. While a lot of it is untraceable _in Ukraine_ a lot of it can also be traced back to corrupt US politicians, mostly Democrats under whose watch this war started. Looks like Trumpwa is hitting many birds with one stone.

[drnayar]

There is more to the accusation on zelensky of some 350B USD than meets the eye. While a lot of it is untraceable _in Ukraine_ a lot of it can also be traced back to corrupt US politicians, mostly Democrats under whose watch this war started. Looks like Trumpwa is hitting many birds with one stone.

Indeed , Trump is more cunning that thought., he has thrown the corruption boomerang straight at Ukraine knowing very well its coming at US as kickbacks and making sure he has the right people at the right places [ Tulsi ; and his bloodhound kash ] right all the way to the judiciary to hang all the dumbocrats on their own noose ..

i suspect Trump has not really started to show what he really looks like .. vengeance or karma is a bitch

[Cyrano]

Deans ji,
Russia's "illegal" invasion is anything but. Putin (a trained lawyer) has followed international law scrupulously before starting the SMO. The Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were denied fair representation and cultural preservation rights by Ukraine through a series of legislations passed by the Ukrainian Rada. Which gives the peoples of Donbass credible grounds of invoking rights of self determination under UN charter. Which they did. Then Russia signed a military assistance pact with these "republics" and then started the SMO. All eminently defendable under law.

Thats why EVERY European and American leader was shouting "Putin's ILLEGAL invasion of Ukraine" from the rooftops until they were hoarse. Repeating a lie loud enough and often enough.

All this is well documented and verifiable. IIRC, Jacques Baud's book also talks about this.

Some 2-3 million long, blue eyed "caucasian" Ukrainian women and children have already dissolved into EU & the west, and perhaps another 3-5 million into Russia. Havent heard any of them driving cars into crowds ! They will never go back to a non-nato, non-EU Ukraine.

Ukraine has a high probability of not being a viable state and of disappearing as a 'country' from the map.

[Tanaji]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c8j0yje ... e239f#post

The guy is deluded: says he will give up Presidency for a Nato seat. As if his presidency as a bargaining chip has any value whatsoever.

[VinodTK]

Ukraine accepts terms of minerals deal with US, could sign agreement on Friday

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will sign the deal in Washington, officials said.

[Aditya_V]

Ukraine accepts terms of minerals deal with US, could sign agreement on Friday

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will sign the deal in Washington, officials said.

Another indication things are not going so well for Ukraine and EU weapons stocks are near depletion

[bala]

This is an appropriate YT on minerals of Ukraine.

PGurus with Lt. Gen P. R. Shankar, with some details on which resources and what are the issues with extraction:

youtube.com/watch?v=d90XbNfp7p4

Lithium, graphite, titanium etc are being discussed. However extraction of them is a challenge. If US invests and mine things then there is some hope of extraction. US will then become independent of China.

[drnayar]

Trump and Zelensky face off in a heated exchange—LIVE, on camera, for the world to see!

THIS is what REAL transparency and strong leadership look like. No sugarcoating, no fake diplomacy—just straight truth

this is incredible .. must watch .. baniansky schooled in real time .. one would be forgiven in thinking he got spanked as well

https://x.com/MargoMartin47/status/1895529010555470140


Holy $hit !!

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/1895533916368613746

You are in no position to dictate what we feel

you are not in a good position

stupid president

you are in a lot of trouble

you have done a lot of talking

Trump imitated Zelenskiy:
"I don't want a ceasefire, I don't want a ceasefire. I don't want this, I don't want this..."
https://x.com/UpdateNews724/status/1895539314899210477


incredible how entitled baniansky is !! .. see how he argues with Trump

Ukraine is done .. period

tbh, i never seen a world leader arguing with the American president in the oval office..live on TV .. politics beats reality TV !! .. lol

[drnayar]

And finally !!

[drnayar]

what Russia thinks now

https://x.com/i/status/1895541680516055357

[Tanaji]

One thing is for sure: Trump drama is greater than any saas bahu drama on Indian tv channels..

I dont get Baniansky: does he really expect a return to 2022 borders? Because thats the main question: he is deluded if he thinks he can fight on indefinitely with others money.

[drnayar]

the whole melodrama !

[drnayar]

Zelenskyy leaves White House after Trump 'kicked him out'

[VinodTK]

Few things will happen now:
- Celebrations will start in Russia; because Zelenskyy bit the hand that is feeding him
- US information (satellite intelligence) will stop; and so will the weapons flow
- Russias chances on the war front will greatly improve; because all of western Europe put together will not be able to give Ukraine what the Americans were giving them, end is near.

[S_Madhukar]

Looks like Elensky thought it’s going to be good old days in the WH with the white powder…. Now he has to negotiate with a Pres who has his faculties and sobriety intact ! Ah what theatre… !

[bala]

Poor clown baniansky (he was a former comedian and now the joke is upon him). US told him to shut up and take the deal between US - Rus and also cough up the $500 B given to Ukr for the war. UKStan was told similarly and Starmer fell in line very quickly with DJT's plan. baniansky tried to outsmart things and make a ruckus with the media, however he was told in no uncertain terms he has no cards to play and everything is held by the US. I guess DJT told him to sign on the dotted line and the US/Rus will decide Ukr's fate. All the areas lost by Ukr to Rus are gone, the deal is about the rest of Ukr. Meanwhile China is looking lost in all of this new development and the rare earth stuff is directed at them. This is multi dimensional chess game and the cards are held by the US predominantly. baniansky will fade away with his loot to some retirement spot.

[Cyrano]

Like I wrote at the top of this page,

Trump will simply blame EU countries for this mess and move on, many Americans can't find Ukraine on a map anyways. I don't think it will impact him much, he isn't running for another term. His focus will be mid terms and US economy will be more important for his electorate than Ukraine.

The first thing that ticked off the POTUS is Zelly's shabby nightclub bouncer outfit. It was seen as a sign of disrespect to the host.

Zelly was missing a few lines of white powder, his constant sniffing and twitching was another factor that pissed off Trump who apparently hates drunkards and cokeheads.

He was so pampered and put on a sky high pedestal by the brainless EU elites that he argued with Trump and Vance in front of the media and got craped.

Looks like EU countries like France and UK which have signed pacts of military and economic assistance with Zelly are going to pick up the tab. NATO will probably not survive this. EU future looks full of internal strife and misery.

[williams]

Wow!! This guy Zelensky does not understand diplomacy. He is talking to the President of the United States like a street thug in public. Even democrats are not going to support him now.

[Tanaji]

Longer term though: Europe will arm itself. And they will also be suspicious of each other: Poland and Turkey won’t be trusted as they have the manpower and weapons. UK will be the liege of US trying to lord it over on US behalf. In short it will be a slow unraveling of Europe.

Of course once the Dems are back in office it will all change, but US won’t be involved in Europe as before.