MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[RCase]

IAF chief drops truth bombs, says his force in dire need of 35-40 aircraft/year, far behind in tech
https://theprint.in/defence/iaf-chief-d ... h/2516455/
28 Feb 2025

ACM Singh’s comments pointed directly to the long-pending Medium Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme, which envisions the procurement of 114 new fighter jets. Some of these will be acquired from abroad in flyaway condition, while others will be made in India.

“We did an exercise in house. We need to actually produce or induct aircraft at the rate of two squadrons per year to cater for the ramped-up numbers we want and whatever will go out very soon,” he said/

Example of the confidence inspiring, superior mission mode planning capabilities of the IAF! Wait till the last minute and then ask for 35 - 40 aircraft/ year! What stopped them from placing larger orders than piecemeal orders? The Tejas should have been ordered in bulk, with improvements coming up over time. Originally, the planning was to setup one production line churning out 8 aircraft per year. Then came the second and third line as an afterthought to meet the next dribble of orders. Even with this, the capacity is likely to be 24 aircraft per year. If you want 40 a year, you place an order for at least 200 aircraft so the the production line is designed to handle that capacity.

Even with the Rafales, it was the same story. Order 36 and lull everyone into believing 'all is well'. The Rafale will be the giant slayer to take on anything and everything. If 36 were a bandaid, they should have exercised the option to buy more instead of having a contest with another alphabet soup of aircraft requirements.

The SU - 30 was touted as the best of the best that could take on anything, outmaneuvering any opponent. Now there are complaints of it being fuel inefficient, not having sufficient BVR capabilities, yada yada...

All along they knew that the aging aircraft in the fleet will have to be phased out. They have been whiling away time for decades trying to fantasize about the best of the best.

[Cybaru]

They all want to fly latest and greatest onlee.. Fly boys still out of airforce flying commercial still fantasize about F35s... Its just a sad state of affairs..

[Rakesh]

Hukum on Twitter

https://x.com/hukum2082/status/18958591 ... 3niew&s=19 ---> Let me tell you a story:

^^^ Hukum is 100% right and with the GE F414 engine deal stuck (viewtopic.php?p=2640645#p2640645), so will be the follow on order for the GE F404 turbofans (for the 97 Mk1As, which have not been ordered!) and possibly continued delays in delivery of the first contract for F404 turbofans for the 73 + 10 Mk1A/Mk1 order. Deliveries are supposed to start this month for this first contract, after a two year delay. Lets see if GE actually delivers the turbofans.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/fishy_bong/status/1896205015854834080 ---> In last three months the trends has been:

A. LCA Bad -> Buy F-35
B. ALH Bad -> Shutdown Program
C. LUH Bad -> Buy H-125
D. WHaP Bad -> Buy Stryker
E. SSS doesn't exist -> buy screwdriver carbines and guns

Basically the template is:

Indigenous project bad -> Import

Nobody is saying to improve the project & product managment and all the traditional quarters of Defence news i.e. journos & uncles are singing in same tone. EXCEPT THE "nincompoops"

This is NOT a coincidence
This in NOT a surprise to me
This is NOT the first time too

Did these quarters create a fuss about:

A. The Apaches under performing in Ladakh?
B. Did these journos run a sustain campaign on GE's delivery issue.
C. Was there a sustained campaign on non-delivery of Apache's to army even after 2 years delay?

Answer to this shall differentiate a lot of things. They dont hate the "NINOCOOMPS" for having an opinion.

They hate you because these keyboard warriors can understand, comprehend, absorb and collate both scientific, engineering and administrative sides of these projects to give a much nuanced perspective than what they have given in their entire life of lobbying and these keyboard warriors can literally shred their arguments to bits with all possible reliable and scientific sources they have gone through during there geek phase just for fun and sake of it.

[Ankit Desai]

IAF requirement for more multirole fighter aircraft accepted by Defence Ministry Committee: Sources

Sources told ANI that the committee has accepted the need for the Indian Air Force to have new multirole fighters to meet its requirements for preparing for the next generation of conflicts.

-Ankit

[pravula]

Is this a joke? Did the committee also accept the need to have IAF hire new pilots to meet its requirements for preparing for the next generation of conflicts?

[ernest]

AK Dubey reporting on the committee recommendations on squadron strength. Expectedly, the recent clamor was to push in this direction, where the committee has accepted IAF's requirement for MRFA.

https://x.com/ajitkdubey/status/1897475114037600625 --->

We may soon see movement in the procurement of more multirole fighter aircraft as top Defence Ministry Committee headed by Def Sec Rajesh Kumar Singh has accepted the IAF demand for MRFA for enhancing its combat capabilities.

IAF requirement for more multirole fighter aircraft accepted by Defence Ministry Committee: Sources
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 305230755/
05 March 2025

[Rakesh]

IAF requirement for more multirole fighter aircraft accepted by Defence Ministry Committee: Sources
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 305230755/
05 March 2025

https://x.com/AdithyaKM_/status/1897521457506476237 ---> Committee has accepted IAF need for more multirole fighters. IAF will prepare statement of case for acquiring capabilities. MoD will work on timebound approvals. So after 126 MMRCA, 114 MRFA is also dead. Let's see what numbers IAF wants in the new one.

[Rakesh]

And right on CUE!!!!

France could open a new Rafale fighter jet assembly line in India to fulfill large-scale contracts
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/ae ... -contracts
06 March 2025

===================================================

Link below, is where the article above gets its info from. Link below requires a paid subscription.

Dassault anticipates increasing the number of Rafales delivered per month from three to four, or even five "if necessary"
https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/d ... t.N2228457
05 March 2025

[Rakesh]

So with the above post and with the publication of the IAF report, connect the dots. Also see this post ---> viewtopic.php?p=2640447#p2640447

1) GE is facing delays over the F404-IN20 turbofans. Whether that is genuine (i.e. delay in components from South Korea) or being done willfully by the Govt of the US is not yet known. This is causing the Mk1A program to be stuck in limbo. Aircraft are being promised to be delivered at an increase rate of production, but it its pointless in the absence of a turbofan.

2) The assembly deal for the F414-INS6 turbofans is also stuck. Whether India is asking for the moon and GE is not budging on certain requirements is not known either. This increases the ambiguity of the Mk2 program, as although some F414-INS6 turbofans are currently in India...it is not enough to commence production once development is completed. In addition, vital components of said turbofan are coming to India directly from the US. So even if the deal becomes unstuck tomorrow, India is still reliant on the US for the aircraft to fly (both literally and figuratively).

3) The just released IAF report is now more or less confirmed, that the push for a phoren MRFA is a must have for Air HQ. And it is an open secret that Air HQ wants the Rafale. Nothing else is considered viable for Air HQ, especially the American birds due to Points 1 and 2 above.

4) Dragging on the MRFA contest for another 5 - 10 years (RFI, RFP, Platform Evaluation, L1 Selection, Contract Negotiations, etc) is not feasible either for Air HQ, as aircraft are retiring far quicker than new inductions. It also opens the door for geopolitical coercions from Unkil.

5) Thus expect a Rafale production line contract to be signed fairly soon by the GOI. Also a token purchase of a 5th generation platform (either the F-35 or the Su-57) will happen. Both of these will drain the CAPEX for decades and it will spell the end of the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs, as then the rationale will be ---> dekho, no money. The Mk2 and AMCA will exist, but in token amounts. Just to appease "Aatmanirbharata" in the annual MoD brochure.

P.S. Also understand why the Rambha upgrade is taking so painfully long (7 years) and in token amounts (84 aircraft, versus a fleet of 272 birds). CAPEX is being diverted/allocated for the newest phoren toys. We will never learn. Import for eternity.

Aatmanirbharata (Self Reliance) is the slogan, but Nirbharata (Dependence) is the end goal for the GOI and the Armed Forces.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/sriramthg/status/1897534942462271760 ---> Let's get the MRFA bro. We will fight the Chinese with brand new super duper technology bro. LCA Tejas obsolete bro.

https://x.com/VSJpyper/status/1897543487639433249 ---> Imagine sinking all your precious money into importing just 120 jets and not having anything for R&D, induction of SAMs, cheaper desi jets, even basic quantity of force multipliers, less than a bankrupt nation.

https://x.com/ColossalArmin19/status/18 ... 5282902332 ---> But can you imagine the pride in flying an expensive fighter like Rafale. During exercises with western nations, what will look better to show - a Rafale or F-15EX or F-21 vs a third world, three legged cheetah MiG-21+++ like Tejas?

[ramana]

Rakesh The Su-30MKI upgrade stretch and low numbers are also to justify more imports. The entire IAF brass needs to be retired for bad planning leading to this situation. No mercies.
To mitigate engine deliveries they want an entire jet to be knockdown assembly.

Morons even those can be delayed.

I thought VRC was a slacker. Current chief is making him a genius.

[hemant_sai]

If you all are serious then first get our dear Raksha Mantri to accept that he needs to take rest. If that is also not possible then at least get good team of future leaders to take the charge unofficially.
We need real passionate and visionary Raksha Mantri.
The more we continue with kadi ninda, we are sure on path to self sabotage.

Rather than making noise anywhere we need to directly reach mantri ji and convince him to step down on his own.

[fanne]

So with the above post and with the publication of the IAF report, connect the dots. Also see this post ---> viewtopic.php?p=2640447#p2640447

1) GE is facing delays over the F404-IN20 turbofans. Whether that is genuine (i.e. delay in components from South Korea) or being done willfully by the Govt of the US is not yet known. This is causing the Mk1A program to be stuck in limbo. Aircraft are being promised to be delivered at an increase rate of production, but it its pointless in the absence of a turbofan.

2) The assembly deal for the F414-INS6 turbofans is also stuck. Whether India is asking for the moon and GE is not budging on certain requirements is not known either. This increases the ambiguity of the Mk2 program, as although some F414-INS6 turbofans are currently in India...it is not enough to commence production once development is completed. In addition, vital components of said turbofan are coming to India directly from the US. So even if the deal becomes unstuck tomorrow, India is still reliant on the US for the aircraft to fly (both literally and figuratively).

one way to mitigate this is don't practice Just in time inventory management. Buy all things (starting with most troubling and crucial ones- like engines etc.) before the mass production starts. Along with consumables. So need 300 mk2, get 150 F414 at least before hand, order before etc etc. and then start that program. That means the budget allocation should be that, that also means IAF and MOD has provided firm commitment to buying and not playing add this and add that game. Things can be added, in tranches at later period or during scheduled maintenance. There should be concept like minimal viable product, emphasis on minimal. If that is there, go ahead. Minimum is also not left to IAF shenanigans.

[ramana]

That's called long lead item procurement. However with the system procuring just in time how do we hope to get long lead items?
BTW do you notice the services complain about no delivery of Apaches?

[Rakesh]

France to build new variant of Rafale fighter jet in India?
Dassault chief makes big revelation, says will set up…
https://www.india.com/news/world/rafale ... a-7660212/
06 March 2025

Expressing hope that the Indian Navy will place sign a contract for 26 aircraft carrier-Rafale M, Trappier disclosed that Dassault Aviation expects to land a big contract for the new Rafale F5 variants from India which will require localization of production in accordance with the Make in India program. The French aerospace giant plans to open a new assembly line in India to build the Rafale F5 variants, “so that we can handle the load”, Trappier said. Notably, the IAF has already purchased 36 Rafale fighter jets, and discussions are underway for a follow-up order.

Additionally, the France is readying another batch of 30 Rafale aircraft for delivery in the 2030s. Dassault’s backlog for Rafale includes 56 aircraft for the French Air Force and 164 for export customers including Indonesia, Serbia and the United Arab Emirates. Therefore, the defence manufacturer is planning to build an assembly line in India to fulfill its backlog of Rafale orders.

[SRajesh]

Looks like we can continue with this 'Tamasha' for another 144 yrs (until the next Mahakumbh!!)
Already the IAF collections like a ??? Hmmm closest I think of is "Payana" (there is a Transport Museum near Mysore on the Highway)
And my Grandkids (hopefully) and their kids will still be discussing the MRFA-Episode LXXV

[Rakesh]

IAF aiming to induct new multirole fighter jets in 4-5 years
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 311210353/
11 Mar 2025

With a high-level committee having accepted the need for getting new multirole fighter jets, the Indian Air Force is looking to start induction of these planes in the next four to five years through a fast tracked global tender.

A high-level committee headed by Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh recently submitted its report to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and has accepted the need for getting 114 multirole fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force to help it enhance its combat capabilities.

The Indian Air Force is looking to achieve the number of 60 fighter aircraft squadrons by the year 2047 and feels that the induction of the MRFA jets in next five to ten years would be critical to achieve the numbers required to be able to tackle a two front war

[Rakesh]

^^^ So we get some more insights into the "confidential" report prepared for Rajnath Singh.

1) 114 MRFA is confirmed for the IAF, budget be damned. What that means is budget will be made available for 114 MRFA, while developmental funds for the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs will suffer.

2) The 60 fighter aircraft squadron is a ruse (and a well played one) by the import lobby. These circus clowns have yet to achieve 42 squadrons after 25+ years of MMRCA/MRFA acquisitions and they are now talking of 60 squadrons! What this clearly indicates is that 60 has been put up as a smoke-and-mirrors screen, to justify the acquisition of 114 MRFA. The report has likely painted a rosy picture of Atmanirbhar Bharat (hundreds of Tejas and AMCAs) and the 114 MRFA is a "stop gap" needed to get to 60 squadrons. A mere 114 MRFA versus hundreds of "Aatmanirbharata" Tejas/AMCA is the marketing slogan. In reality, there is no concrete plan to ever achieve even 42 squadrons, so forget talking about 60 squadrons!

3) The clueless Govt has bought into the ruse and is gullible. This hare·brained plan to achieve 60 squadrons by 2047, is a little over two decades from now. By then, none of the current actors in Govt will be there (or even alive!). Well played by Air HQ.

4) Just like all MRCBF acquisition, all the other contenders in the MRFA contest are there just for eye candy. It is Rafale all the way.

5) And by the way, a 5th generation phoren platform is also coming. It will be import galore at Air HQ.

The Mk2 and AMCA will exist, but in token amounts. Just to appease "Aatmanirbharata" in the annual MoD brochure.

https://x.com/cvkrishnan/status/1890614124645658969 ---> Like many things in India happen for the sake of it rather than satisfying some fundamental needs. I’m sorry to say but the AMCA program is, for now, happening for the sake of India having a 5th gen program running. It isn’t run geared for a necessity with sense of purpose.

[Rakesh]

IAF aiming to induct new multirole fighter jets in 4-5 years
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 311210353/
11 Mar 2025

With a high-level committee having accepted the need for getting new multirole fighter jets, the Indian Air Force is looking to start induction of these planes in the next four to five years through a fast tracked global tender.

https://x.com/singhshwetabh71/status/18 ... 3108049962 ---> 4-5 years. Sure.

[Rakesh]

Thus expect a Rafale production line contract to be signed fairly soon by the GOI. Also a token purchase of a 5th generation platform (either the F-35 or the Su-57) will happen. Both of these will drain the CAPEX for decades and it will spell the end of the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs, as then the rationale will be ---> dekho, no money.

https://x.com/VSJpyper/status/1897543487639433249 ---> Imagine sinking all your precious money into importing just 120 jets and not having anything for R&D, induction of SAMs, cheaper desi jets, even basic qty of force multipliers, less than a bankrupt nation.

[srai]

That committee should have moved the files to “actual” orders with funding commitments for follow on 97 LCA Mk1A … maybe even throw in a few more like another 40 to “replace” LCA Mk1.

Then Super Su-30 MKI MLU. Expand it to 250 instead of 80. Expedite with actual contracts and funding commitments.

Get a 40 more Su-30 MKI Super to close the gap for retiring old airframes.

Buy every 2nd hand Mirage-2000s / MiG-29s (and upgrade them to “I” standards) out there as temporary (10-year) gap filler.

Get more force multipliers: AWACS / AEW&C, AAR tankers, EW

Order bulk all the indigenous radars and missiles that are ready: BVR AAM, stand-off munitions (ASM, PGM) and SAM along with AD guns.

Hardened airbase shelters and other protected facilities to survive “first/surprise strike”.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1897911114614358114 ---> American aerospace company Maxar Technologies has cut off Ukraine's access to its satellite images.

https://x.com/sriramthg/status/1897923198840455314 ---> Anyone who still thinks we should be buying hundred fighters from others?

https://x.com/Viv_Krishnan/status/1897940020931006513 ---> Maxar also sells to India FYI.

https://x.com/sriramthg/status/1897960193591590993 ---> We'll buy from the Chinese too if they are L1.

[Rakesh]

From the MIC that never sleeps

https://x.com/SJha1618/status/1898228682839539842 ---> More from Tom Goffus: Lithuania wants “to buy AMRAAMS for their NASAMS,” Five-year wait. I talked to the Bulgarian CHOD [Chief of Defense]. They want to buy Javelins for their Strykers. Seven-year wait. I talked to some of the big allies who want to buy Patriots. 10-year wait."

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/livefist/status/1898252376806445303 ---> We have not looked at it [F-35], there is no offer as such, it doesn’t just happen like this: IAF chief ACM AP Singh at @IndiaToday Conclave.

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1898223018763338127 ---> Shocking arrogance on display here from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick:

- India needs to stop listening to silly people.
- Laughs at concerns about US reliability as defence supplier.
- Dismisses UK, France and Russia as Indian defence partners.

VIDEO: https://x.com/ThePollLady/status/1898418352856478029 ---> "India must stop being an “I” in BRICS and stop purchasing Russian weapons. " ~ U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. But can India trust U.S after Afghanistan and Ukraine?

[Rakesh]

IAH with Saurav Jha 09 March 2025 | On The IAF's Plans To Restore Its Squadron Strength

[Rakesh]

VIDEO: https://x.com/livefist/status/1898252376806445303 ---> We have not looked at it [F-35], there is no offer as such, it doesn’t just happen like this: IAF chief ACM AP Singh at @IndiaToday Conclave.

You Don’t Need A Kill Switch To Hobble Exported F-35s
https://www.twz.com/air/you-dont-need-a ... rted-f-35s
11 March 2025

The U.S. doesn't have to rely on a kill switch to rapidly degrade and soon end a foreign country's ability to use its F-35s.

[Rakesh]

Philippines just acquired 20 F-16 Block 70 aircraft. The F-16 is supposed to be the cheapest of the 3(+1) US birds in the MRCA contest.

US $5.58 billion / 20 aircraft = US $279 million per aircraft. The F-18SH Block III, the F-15EX and the F-35 will be even more horrendously expensive.

Philippines – F-16 Aircraft
https://www.thedefencematrix.in/philipp ... 6-aircraft
02 April 2025

The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of the Philippines of F-16 Aircraft for an estimated cost of $5.58 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

[Rakesh]

India Offered Path to Quick License Production of Su-57: Landmark Deal Pending
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... dmark-deal
07 March 2025

[Ankit Desai]

Rafale it is.

Talks with France to begin for G2G deal for multirole fighter aircraft, Rafale M pact this month
https://theprint.in/defence/talks-with- ... h/2583709/
09 April 2025

India is likely to begin negotiations with France for a government-to-government (G2G) deal for 114 Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) with local manufacturing to bolster the air force’s depleting strength, ThePrint has learnt.

-Ankit

[Aditya_V]

Rafale it is.

Talks with France to begin for G2G deal for multirole fighter aircraft, Rafale M pact this month
https://theprint.in/defence/talks-with- ... h/2583709/
09 April 2025

India is likely to begin negotiations with France for a government-to-government (G2G) deal for 114 Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) with local manufacturing to bolster the air force’s depleting strength, ThePrint has learnt.

-Ankit

I hope this does not happen,

[Rakesh]

I hope this does not happen,

It will happen, but at the expense of local programs. This is what happens, when you do not fund your own engine program.

Aatmanirbharata (Self Reliance) is the slogan, but Nirbharata (Dependence) is the end goal for the GOI and the Armed Forces.

[Rakesh]

Rafale it is.

Talks with France to begin for G2G deal for multirole fighter aircraft, Rafale M pact this month
https://theprint.in/defence/talks-with- ... h/2583709/
09 April 2025

India is likely to begin negotiations with France for a government-to-government (G2G) deal for 114 Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) with local manufacturing to bolster the air force’s depleting strength, ThePrint has learnt.

See below....

5) Thus expect a Rafale production line contract to be signed fairly soon by the GOI. Also a token purchase of a 5th generation platform (either the F-35 or the Su-57) will happen. Both of these will drain the CAPEX for decades and it will spell the end of the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs, as then the rationale will be ---> dekho, no money. The Mk2 and AMCA will exist, but in token amounts. Just to appease "Aatmanirbharata" in the annual MoD brochure.

[fanne]

I think, it may not happen. Whatever problem 62 Rafale (36+26) cannot solve, I doubt 114 extra of it can solve. I guess we will go heavy on local and we may (may not will) go for 5th gen fighter, as a stop gap. We have everything that we need to move forward, we can make more SU30MKI with Super sukhoi package, update SU30MKI, make more (97) mk1a (or even mk1b with LCAMK2 Tech like wide display, no GAN radar etc), LCAMK2 - 300 in numbers, 2 Seat LCA on the side (OMNI) with Kaveri, AMCA. Meanwhile upgrade Mig 29 one more time with AESA etc. I would also up engine Jags with HF25 and give very long range standoff weapon (say like 200-300 KM sir to ground munitions, to mitigate Jags vulnerability). Enough that we need not spend under 30 billion dollars for 114 Rafale. By buying 114 Rafale, we may get independence from US and Russian but we will be slave to the French.

[Rakesh]

Dassault is bursting at the seams with orders. If they do not open a second line, it will delay deliveries...which will result in penalties for Dassault. They obviously do not want to pay these penalties, but they also do not want to invest their own money into a second line. They would rather have someone else do it for them. So see who comes to the rescue (once again!) to save another country's MIC! We have done this in the past with Russia i.e. MiG-29K and Su-30MKI programs to name just a couple.

And one has to be living in an alternate universe, to believe that Air HQ wants anything else other than the Rafale.

[Rakesh]

Not the F-35, F 21 or Gripen. India will go in for more Rafale

As CCS approves the Rafale Marine deal, Deputy Editor Snehesh Alex Philip says India will go in for more Rafale for the IAF.

[maitya]

^^^^^ Ideal would have been 57 + 26 = 83 Lic Mfg at the 2nd Line, over a 10 year horizon.
(which means 10/year peak rate - plus any addn "offloaded" vol from the current order-book, to take it to 14-16/year peak rate)

[Cybaru]

Dassault is bursting at the seams with orders. If they do not open a second line, it will delay deliveries...which will result in penalties for Dassault. They obviously do not want to pay these penalties, but they also do not want to invest their own money into a second line. They would rather have someone else do it for them. So see who comes to the rescue (once again!) to save another country's MIC! We have done this in the past with Russia i.e. MiG-29K and Su-30MKI programs to name just a couple.

And one has to be living in an alternate universe, to believe that Air HQ wants anything else other than the Rafale.

With the world order changing, expect EU defense companies to be more busy...

[Rakesh]

^^^^^ Ideal would have been 57 + 26 = 83 Lic Mfg at the 2nd Line, over a 10 year horizon.
(which means 10/year peak rate - plus any addn "offloaded" vol from the current order-book, to take it to 14-16/year peak rate)

Dassault (and this includes all the other OEMs in the MRFA contest) will not place a line in India, for anything less than 100 aircraft.